Werewolf XXXI: House of Frankenstein (Game Over)

[Grammaticus]

Another reason Dr. Raimen would go for Lathum is because he scanned him and knows he was a villager. The Dr. does not want to accidentally hit a wolf. He would have limitted options based on who he scanned and which of those are still alive at the time of the Duking.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Agreed, on using the power. The Blade I know would sacrifice anything to use his special power

In all seriousness, your best strategy after being fingered as a wolf in yesterdays debacle, is to create overwhelming evidence that you are being "setup". It is your only small chance of trying to talk your way out of a lynching of which now you have no escape power.

I agree with this to a certain extent. It's perverse and yet logical in it's own way. I will point out that people CAN and DO get away with killing the people they've gone after. Just look at Lathum. The guy has a mega blow-up with you, kills you, and no one thinks that perhaps he's a bad guy.

[Barkeep49]

So basically Blade you're suggesting that while you would never play the 100% obvious game, Anxiety would? Not a rhetorical question, I want to make sure that's your meaning.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

your best strategy after being fingered as a wolf in yesterdays debacle

Exactly my point...everything points to be...as mr. R, or a wolf he is protecting, kills would have been made to create other suspects and scapegoats. Instead, all other suspects and scapegoats were killed by both the wolves and mr. R....last night left 0 suspects but me...why, as dr. R or a wolf, would i kill of my only outs>??

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So basically Blade you're suggesting that while you would never play the 100% obvious game, Anxiety would? Not a rhetorical question, I want to make sure that's your meaning.

Anxiety i #2 on my list, but remember what we always say? Usually the best villager isnt one. When i die, you will see how true every one of his statements is 100% on. Either hes having a stunningly good villager game, or hes what im suggesting. Note though, id much prefer chief dead first

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But that's the thing. There was a period there where people were believing you. Then I cast the first vote and things went down hill for you. But your defense worked for several hours. It was remarkable really.

I admit there's a certain reasoning to your "would I do everything possible to make myself look bad" reasoning. But if you're not, say Dr. R, why does he chose to use Frankenstine last night? One suggestion is that he wouldn't use him before he died.

I believe in personal victories above team, you know that. Ive drawn criticism for that. If i had frank, i would use him to help me survive, not help the wolves win. Fouts was about the worst kill i could have made if i was doc, as he was the one true suspect i could push it off on(and i was trying, up to and 1 posts after he died)...Yes, i would use before i died, but to save me and not the wolves

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree with this to a certain extent. It's perverse and yet logical in it's own way. I will point out that people CAN and DO get away with killing the people they've gone after. Just look at Lathum. The guy has a mega blow-up with you, kills you, and no one thinks that perhaps he's a bad guy.

Quite right, lathum had a fight with me, killed me, and got away with it. And suggesting i got sweet revenge pulling the exact same move in reverse is quite intelligent(hadnt made the connection). To be fair though, i went after fouts yesterday...lathum got a late vote swap from me to try and save myself. Remember that, as the final vote doesnt show that. Fouts was my target until the final 10 minutes

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok so who do you think is Mr. R? We have the advantage of knowing that it isn't some people, like Farrah or path, who were gone at the time the stuff went down. So if you're innocent build up a case against someone else. Doing that is not going off the deepend it's defending yourself.

Actually, the Duke ability and any pk usually lets you send a PM earlier in the day with instructions, such as “if Blade wins the vote, switch to Lathum”. Then you do not have to sign on or be around for the vote to use your power.

I’m sure path would know that and if Farrah were selected as Dr. Raimen, she would have asked St.Cronin how all the powers can be used.

And DO NO FORGET, the new players are allowed to get advice from hoopsguy and others.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Actually, the Duke ability and any pk usually lets you send a PM earlier in the day with instructions, such as “if Blade wins the vote, switch to Lathum”. Then you do not have to sign on or be around for the vote to use your power.

I’m sure path would know that and if Farrah were selected as Dr. Raimen, she would have asked St.Cronin how all the powers can be used.

And DO NO FORGET, the new players are allowed to get advice from hoopsguy and others.

This is all true, except that advice should be limited to generic werewolf advice, not Werewolf XXXI-specific advice.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Actually, the Duke ability and any pk usually lets you send a PM earlier in the day with instructions, such as “if Blade wins the vote, switch to Lathum”. Then you do not have to sign on or be around for the vote to use your power.

I’m sure path would know that and if Farrah were selected as Dr. Raimen, she would have asked St.Cronin how all the powers can be used.

And DO NO FORGET, the new players are allowed to get advice from hoopsguy and others.

Considering it didnt swap to me until 20 min. till the deadline, it would actually mean Doc was around. And what do you know, chief and anxiety were both around then...gotta love coincidences like that

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Considering it didnt swap to me until 20 min. till the deadline, it would actually mean Doc was around. And what do you know, chief and anxiety were both around then...gotta love coincidences like that

The swap took place when the vote count was final. The request for the swap could have been made any time after the previous lynch.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The swap took place when the vote count was final. The request for the swap could have been made any time after the previous lynch.

I meant the lynch didnt sway to me until 20 min. until the deadline. Until then, lathum was up with fouts right behind him. No one would need to duke it to lathum until the final 20 minutes of the day, as he was already dying...so whoever duked it to me made that decision in the final 20 min.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Actually, the Duke ability and any pk usually lets you send a PM earlier in the day with instructions, such as “if Blade wins the vote, switch to Lathum”. Then you do not have to sign on or be around for the vote to use your power.

I’m sure path would know that and if Farrah were selected as Dr. Raimen, she would have asked St.Cronin how all the powers can be used.

And DO NO FORGET, the new players are allowed to get advice from hoopsguy and others.

Yeah but no one had Blade on their active radar until late in the day. Who would send in such a conditional order?

Also, from conversations I've had with him, I don't think anyone's gone to hoops for advice and I know no one has contacted me.

[Barkeep49]

Cronin I understand what you're trying to do, but I think it doesn't pass the Occam Ravor's test.

[st.cronin]

Actually, exactly such a conditional order WAS sent in, although I forget what time exactly. The good Doctor will be happy to confirm after the game is over, I'm sure.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Actually, exactly such a conditional order WAS sent in, although I forget what time exactly. The good Doctor will be happy to confirm after the game is over, I'm sure.

its prob. best if you dont share details like this for game purposes, its not fair

[st.cronin]

Speculating about who was online at such and such a time goes against the integrity of the game. I set up this game specifically so such things wouldn't matter.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Speculating about who was online at such and such a time goes against the integrity of the game. I set up this game specifically so such things wouldn't matter.

Well crap, as that was one of the keys in my defense. Now its back to begging

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yeah but no one had Blade on their active radar until late in the day. Who would send in such a conditional order?

Also, from conversations I've had with him, I don't think anyone's gone to hoops for advice and I know no one has contacted me.

Doesn’t matter, the one time I had the Duke role, I sent an order in early in the day so I would have protection if I couldn’t get online or knew I would be away.

For example I would send it a note that said something like, “If Grammaticus, Dubb or Hoopsguy is picked for lynch, change the vote to Jeeber”. I’m just making up the names, but if you have a person or two you want to stay in the game, you could do that. When I did it, the players I sent had no heat on them. If the doctor tested both Blade and Lathum (two choices with high probability of testing) and knew one was bad and one was good, he could have sent the order in as soon as the next day started as an elementary precaution.

I’m just saying it could easily be done.

The part about getting help from others was just meant to remind everyone that just because someone is new, does not mean they cannot get advice on how to use the power and cover themselves. Example, Farrah could ask Hoops, St. Cronin, etc. “Don’t tell me who to duke, but if I wanted to duke someone and not tip my hat, what can I do?” Who knows or cares, just understand they are not without help on how the game works. Versus having to ask in the open, which may tip their role.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The Occam Ravor's test.

What is this?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

What is this?

I googled it, and wikipedia basically says the simplest route is usually the correct one

[Blade6119]

Ok, barkeep...can you at least promise me that if i die(or when based on how it looks) and come up a villager, you will make sure chief dies?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

What is this?

Occam's Razor states that the simplest explanation is also the most likely explanation.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Ok, barkeep...can you at least promise me that if i die(or when based on how it looks) and come up a villager, you will make sure chief dies?

Well no. You've presented evidence against Anxiety, but not against Rum. What makes you so sure Rum is a bad guy.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well no. You've presented evidence against Anxiety, but not against Rum. What makes you so sure Rum is a bad guy.

The same blade gut that had you pegged that one game as a bad guy(same one dubb made his famous 3-1 move as turncoat). I have my gut feeling on chief like i did you....i had no evidence against you, but i just knew...i have that with chief, and just like that game no one believes me. Ironically, just like that, the doc(i wish dubb was playing, as its his move) has basically killed 3 villagers(lathum fouts, and myself) and still lives. When i die, and the night kill happens, it will be 9 straight villagers...its basically down to you cant afford to waste lynches anymore.

[path12]

Blade, you mentioned Gram is in your circle. Could you recap why? I don't remember and he's not been in mine.

Oh, and I'm not voting for you, for what it's worth. I have to admit I don't get the Chief Rum vibe you do, but I'm 80% you're good and really, my vote doesn't matter anyway at this point.

After thinking on it a bit, I'm more and more of the opinion that there are wolves in your votes yesterday. Tangle and molson continue to be high on my list, and I do get your case for Anxiety though I feel that's a smaller chance. Gram continues (as usual) to be very hard for me to read. I hope to be able to go back through some old posts later today and put some reasoning together.

[Blade6119]

dola, barkeep

Im talking this through with you since you took schmidtys spot and i trusted him. Therefore, i think your good and worth convincing. Some people, like tangle or now chief, are not going to believe me regardless of what i say. I will be gone most of the day, so tell me now, do i have a shot at swaying you? becuase if not i will just say kill chief then anxiety, and you all have fun lynching me. I consider you a key vote since you hold some sway naturally, so if i cant get you i wont get farrah and the others who followed you onto me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

The same blade gut that had you pegged that one game as a bad guy(same one dubb made his famous 3-1 move as turncoat). I have my gut feeling on chief like i did you....i had no evidence against you, but i just knew...i have that with chief, and just like that game no one believes me. Ironically, just like that, the doc(i wish dubb was playing, as its his move) has basically killed 3 villagers(lathum fouts, and myself) and still lives. When i die, and the night kill happens, it will be 9 straight villagers...its basically down to you cant afford to waste lynches anymore.

Yeah Blade that was incredible. I admit it. But you've been wrong several times with that same gut since then.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

dola, barkeep

Im talking this through with you since you took schmidtys spot and i trusted him. Therefore, i think your good and worth convincing. Some people, like tangle or now chief, are not going to believe me regardless of what i say. I will be gone most of the day, so tell me now, do i have a shot at swaying you? becuase if not i will just say kill chief then anxiety, and you all have fun lynching me. I consider you a key vote since you hold some sway naturally, so if i cant get you i wont get farrah and the others who followed you onto me.

I'm always convincable. That's why Lathum played me so well a couple games ago.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by path12

Blade, you mentioned Gram is in your circle. Could you recap why? I don't remember and he's not been in mine.

Oh, and I'm not voting for you, for what it's worth. I have to admit I don't get the Chief Rum vibe you do, but I'm 80% you're good and really, my vote doesn't matter anyway at this point.

After thinking on it a bit, I'm more and more of the opinion that there are wolves in your votes yesterday. Tangle and molson continue to be high on my list, and I do get your case for Anxiety though I feel that's a smaller chance. Gram continues (as usual) to be very hard for me to read. I hope to be able to go back through some old posts later today and put some reasoning together.

One post entirely did it for me, and here it is:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

I’ve seen the “kill the vets” approach work very well in the past. It really comes down to kill the players who have a rep as being good players more than simply experienced or veteran. Usually I would not lynch the vets from the start. But later on when the smoke clears and there is just that one player that you can’t figure out why they are still there, well that means something too. But no single strategy is fool proof.

Also, I have seen the wolves take out all the vets one by one. Same problem occurs. At some point one person should just not be there and that person ends up being the experienced wolf. Or the random gods give you 2 experienced wolves. It gets just as tricky, just more focused.

The two most notorious vets started the game and are still here. That would be Blade and Schmidty. At this point I would not recommend killing either as I think they are both good based on a prior post by each. Either that or one or both laid a good trap. For now I consider them more trustworthy than not.

That was before you pointed it out, before i baited torgo, before any of that(but on day 2, not day 1). Now, the reason it doesnt earn my full trust is that day one he liked my check in post, he voted for me. Hence why he is not fully trusted like you and schmidty. I considered the fact it was a day 2 comments leaves the possibility he either was doc and scanned me or just picked up on it. Mostly i trusted him for it though.

Post#406 for reference

[molson]

What Blade did in some other game has absolutely no relevance to his role in this one.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yeah Blade that was incredible. I admit it. But you've been wrong several times with that same gut since then.

Its hit or miss, i admit that...im just telling you where to go tomorrow, as otherwise it will be like day 1 with everyone accusing everyone.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by molson

What Blade did in some other game has absolutely no relevance to his role in this one.

Actually having a proven track record at being good at something, DOES have relevance to this game, I feel.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Post#406 for reference

Thanks, I had forgotten that comment.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- Though I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion you've drawn molson.

[path12]

Originally Posted by molson

What Blade did in some other game has absolutely no relevance to his role in this one.

I really feel quite strongly that you're bad, and almost every post reinforces that.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by path12

I really feel quite strongly that you're bad, and almost every post reinforces that.

I suspect molson and tangle as well, but im having a hard time figuring out if its becuase of something they have said or the simple fact they are accusing me. Hence why i have, and will continue to, pursued a chief rum lynching.

[Grammaticus]

Of note, from the page one rules. Although Dr. Raimen counts as a villager in the ratio, that appears to only affect the wolves conditions, as below it states the Villagers must eliminate all of the wolves and their allies. Allies are listed as Dr. R and Count D

Rules: Everybody is presumed a villager. It is not known how many wolves are hiding in your midst. Each day you will vote on one suspect - the lucky winner will have a stake driven through their heart, and will no longer be playing the game. Villagers win when all wolves and their allies have been staked or otherwise eliminated. Wolves and their allies win when the ratio of wolves to humans is 1:1. Each day will end at 9pm Eastern time, which is 7pm my time. Votes cast at 9:01 Eastern time or later will not count. Votes must be in bold. Night actions will be due by 9:00am Eastern time.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Of note, from the page one rules. Although Dr. Raimen counts as a villager in the ratio, that appears to only affect the wolves conditions, as below it states the Villagers must eliminate all of the wolves and their allies. Allies are listed as Dr. R and Count D

What it means is, since he no longer has powers, he is just a villager voting against us. The dracula and the wolves are far bigger threats, as we will lose to the ratio, and nothing us. The doc helps us for now, as without him, i think were at most 2 days away. With him, i think we have 3(assuming all misses)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

I really feel quite strongly that you're bad, and almost every post reinforces that.

I agree molson's post have been different. Of course as a new player I don't quite know what to make of it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

What it means is, since he no longer has powers, he is just a villager voting against us. The dracula and the wolves are far bigger threats, as we will lose to the ratio, and nothing us. The doc helps us for now, as without him, i think were at most 2 days away. With him, i think we have 3(assuming all misses)

I'd agree that the doctor isn't nearly the threat the wolves or Count Dracula is, but I'd still rather not have a bad guy's ally running around.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Of note, from the page one rules. Although Dr. Raimen counts as a villager in the ratio, that appears to only affect the wolves conditions, as below it states the Villagers must eliminate all of the wolves and their allies. Allies are listed as Dr. R and Count D

Sorry, that's misleading. I'll edit the first post. The village wins when wolves and the vampire are killed - bad guys win when the # wolves + vampire = # of humans.

[molson]

Originally Posted by path12

I really feel quite strongly that you're bad, and almost every post reinforces that.

At this point I welcome a some suspicion, because it's interesting where it comes from. I KNOW those people are on the wrong track - I just don't know whether they're simply mistaken, or evil.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree molson's post have been different. Of course as a new player I don't quite know what to make of it.

The only argument i have against molson and tangle is that the doc would want me dead after doing the work to set me up. Id imagine he would fight against my attempts to survive, hence tangle and molson being quite stubborn with their points taints them to me.

Again though, i suspect every person who votes for me on some level, and maybe even more so the ones that dont(waves at anxiety )

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by molson

At this point I welcome a some suspicion, because it's interesting where it comes from. I KNOW those people are on the wrong track - I just don't know whether they're simply mistaken, or evil.

Now look in the mirrow when you keep accusing me, as everyone will ask that question about you when i die...make sure your ready to answer it tomorrow

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

One post entirely did it for me, and here it is:


That was before you pointed it out, before i baited torgo, before any of that(but on day 2, not day 1). Now, the reason it doesnt earn my full trust is that day one he liked my check in post, he voted for me. Hence why he is not fully trusted like you and schmidty. I considered the fact it was a day 2 comments leaves the possibility he either was doc and scanned me or just picked up on it. Mostly i trusted him for it though.

Post#406 for reference

I've actually been waiting for you or one of your allies to start drumming it up on me again

The night kills did not come out of MY COT list. I did not have Alant or GoldenEagle on there and they turned up good. And the last days kills all came out of MY leaning bad list of which they all turned up good. Plus when you were asked why Lathum was not trusted you just posted my reason. Since I am the only person who listed a good/bad list, and the wolves know I am good, they are picking off my list, not yours.

So stop playing that silly crap. The bottom line is, the bad guy saved YOU. That makes you the highest probability of being bad of anything we have on the table.

That does pass that Occum test.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

I've actually been waiting for you or one of your allies to start drumming it up on me again

The night kills did not come out of MY COT list. I did not have Alant or GoldenEagle on there and they turned up good. And the last days kills all came out of MY leaning bad list of which they all turned up good. Plus when you were asked why Lathum was not trusted you just posted my reason. Since I am the only person who listed a good/bad list, and the wolves know I am good, they are picking off my list, not yours.

So stop playing that silly crap. The bottom line is, the bad guy saved YOU. That makes you the highest probability of being bad of anything we have on the table.

That does pass that Occum test.

You do know my post was explaining to path why you should be trusted, right?

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

What it means is, since he no longer has powers, he is just a villager voting against us. The dracula and the wolves are far bigger threats, as we will lose to the ratio, and nothing us. The doc helps us for now, as without him, i think were at most 2 days away. With him, i think we have 3(assuming all misses)

The doctor still gets to scan each night and wins with the wolves. He will out our masons or other potential hidden roles. I already pointed that out. That is hugely dangerous.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Sorry, that's misleading. I'll edit the first post. The village wins when wolves and the vampire are killed - bad guys win when the # wolves + vampire = # of humans.

Okay, I still think Raiman is important as he can still scan us.

[Blade6119]

dola, i am the only person in this game who says i trust gramat, and the only one he wants to kill...gotta love WW