Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Anyone have any thoughts on the "traitor to the pack" line back from Blade's Night 2 adventure? I haven't seen much comment on this at all, whether along the lines of my Tyrith scenario, dismissing it as reading too much into Blade's paraphrasing, or important but with some other interpretation.

I have not been able to make any sense of it. If it's a clue, I don't know what I'm supposed to do with it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Oops - hit a wrong key.

Barkeep and Coffee - I must be missing something because I don't immediately see someone who can vouch for Anxiety's story but both of you have commented on this.

That is what we were commenting on. That Anxiety should have some who could verify parts of his story.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.

I still suggest he was a blessed wolf.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.

Only options I can think of are:

1) Failed conversion attempt? (ie: traitor to the pack thing?)
2) A second bodyguard besides hoops
3) Hoops is lying about being bodyguard and the real bodyguard protected Blade
4) He is blessed (Lathum mentioned this one I think before)

I previously had another option I thought being a conversion took place, and perhaps Blade wasnt being honest. However I highly doubt that is the case now. I don't think I have played in a game where there has been someone who is blessed, so not sure how he could be blessed one night, but not the next (unless thats how that normally works).

Right now I dont know what the traitor to the pack means, but would have to guess either #2 or #3 above. Since Cronin and Lathum both vouch for hoops, and I am going to believe Cronin on this, it looks to me there is another protector who has not spoken up yet. At least thats my take on this.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.

My best guess is something like this:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I suggested around the time of Blade's reveal that it might be a combo seer/hunter role - that that's how the wizard gets killed, if this "hunter" finds the wizard at night. Or maybe he can find him one night, and kill him the next night.

So, our "hunter" was scouting out Blade - and was able to interfere in the action in that way. It's possible also that the "hunter" then KNOWS who the wizard is - but is keeping that to himself until it becomes possible to kill the wizard.

[hoopsguy]

I would have been more willing to believe conversion, were it not for the fact that Blade showed up dead after Night 3. Having Blade displace the conversion attempt onto someone else isn't a possibility that I'm strongly considering.

I don't see blessed giving us language like "traitor to pack" or being rescued by another wolf in the description.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My best guess is something like this:



So, our "hunter" was scouting out Blade - and was able to interfere in the action in that way. It's possible also that the "hunter" then KNOWS who the wizard is - but is keeping that to himself until it becomes possible to kill the wizard.

Maybe the hunter is prone to night kills, but can only kill the wizard under a certain condition? such as after he has been lynched once, or after the henchmen are killed or who knows what? So for the hunter to give up his name or role early would risk the only chance to kill the wizard out right as the bodyguard could only guard them so many nights?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I don't learn who the attacker is when I am successful in guarding someone.

If the "hunter" - who I envision being the pack leader - is successful in guarding someone and learns who the wizard is, then it would stand to reason that the wizard would know who they are. I don't see the mechanic giving one side information on that encounter but not the other.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - my point in bringing up the bodyguard mechanic is to suggest that for the hunter to learn the role would mean that it is treated differently than the bodyguard role. Not at all impossible, but it would surprise me a little bit.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, I don't learn who the attacker is when I am successful in guarding someone.

If the "hunter" - who I envision being the pack leader - is successful in guarding someone and learns who the wizard is, then it would stand to reason that the wizard would know who they are. I don't see the mechanic giving one side information on that encounter but not the other.

Well, I never thought otherwise. This is all just wild-ass guessing on my part. But I can imagine scenarios where the wizard's team knows who the "hunter" or "pack leader" is and for whatever reason targets a different player.

[st.cronin]

It's also possible that Blade's "wolf-brother" (Tyrith? or somebody else) was the one interfering. The game mechanics there would be something like if one of them is attacked, both survive, but if somehow one is killed, the other one dies the next night.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It's also possible that Blade's "wolf-brother" (Tyrith? or somebody else) was the one interfering. The game mechanics there would be something like if one of them is attacked, both survive, but if somehow one is killed, the other one dies the next night.

If Tyrith is being honest about that role, then I guess there is a chance we might find out tommorrow night then. I'm still not sure how much I buy that though.

[hoopsguy]

Right, I'm suspicous of the fact that if Tyrith was a brother, then why is he still alive?

People thought I was giving him an "out" but I felt like I was sizing up his noose if he gave the answer that I "coached". Which he did ...

If Tyrith had suggested he had played a role in the Night 2 events I would have looked at this differently.

I haven't cast my vote yet, but I'm at least as suspicious of him as I am Anxiety.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If Tyrith is being honest about that role, then I guess there is a chance we might find out tommorrow night then. I'm still not sure how much I buy that though.

I'm a little bit skeptical myself.

[Alan T]

ok guys Im out. got to get up at 4am for a flight tommorrow for work. I'll likely be gone alot of the day, but should be back hopefully around 6-7pm with a few hours before deadline. see you all later

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: I think that tyrtith wasn't a lover but a limited mason. I am fine with still being suspicious of him though.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Anxiety, going back to your reveal post #1091:


Did you submit trust lists to SirFozzie? I'm trying to understand how you could have intuition based on who you (or the group) trusts if there is not an established trust list?

No submissions. I assumed that SF read the thread, read who I either agreed with or said was clean, and went with that.

On the other hand, like I've said, it could have meant who the "pack" trusted, not who I did.

-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

Dola - hit send befoe I typed my last bit. I started publishing trust lists for you guys in order to help out SF.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

So if you were publishing trust lists, then you had to have some kind of an inkling that your "ability" would work in this fashion?

[Barkeep49]

I think this has been an excellent line of questioning hoops. I think Anxiety has just dug himself deeper in a hole.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So if you were publishing trust lists, then you had to have some kind of an inkling that your "ability" would work in this fashion?

Only for days three and four.

-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

For clarification, in other words, I only started posting trust lists for SF after I got the first comment about someone I or we trusted. I only starting posting these lists on Day three, with the cronin vote.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Post #556 - start of Day 3
Post #913 - start of Day 4

Cronin's published "Trust Lists"?
Day 2/Night 2 - ???
- Post #432: reiterate that Hoopsguy is good suspect, keeping vote there (7:09 PM CST)
- Post #368: cast the vote for Hoopsguy, backing Cronin (1:10 PM CST)

Day 3/Night 3:
Post #886: trust list

Day 4:
- Post #977: this post seems to fall in line with role reveal, before he publishes it:

Post #1029 - moves vote from Saldana to Hoopsguy

[Barkeep49]

Ok hoops I don't get it. What are you so proud about there?

[Barkeep49]

Perhaps proud is an overstatement. What were you going for there?

[hoopsguy]

Um, not too much. At first I was wondering where the trust list was on Day 2, but while I was on my post-hunting mission Anxiety clarified that there was only a posted list on Day 3 (actually Night 3, I believe).

So I'm kind of curious what SirFozzie would have used as the list "trusted not what they seem" for the Night 2 PM, but the rest of the info meshes pretty nicely for Anxiety here.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety how did you get the idea taht you should have been publishing a trust list? That's the cognitive leap I just don't get.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Anxiety how did you get the idea taht you should have been publishing a trust list? That's the cognitive leap I just don't get.

I'm puzzled by that too. If I got a message "somebody you trust is not what they seem," I don't think I'd assume that had anything to do with "circles of trust." I would think it had something to do with a role reveal.

[hoopsguy]

If I believe Anxiety - and I'm closer to doing so than I was two hours ago - then the part of the message that is interesting to me is the "not who/what he appears to be".

Example - Night 3 list, Anxiety is told that someone he doesn't trust is not what they appear to be.

Well, Anxiety said that I had a "wolf vibe", that "Saldana is safe", and that "Blade is safest in game" - so I don't think that Fozzie could use those as people he doesn't trust.

That leaves Lathum and Cronin, although it isn't explicitly stated that he distrusts them either. Cronin's 2nd role reveal, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't occur until the start of Day 4. So that could be "not who they appear to be". Or it could be something with Lathum, whose tactics were examined in the trust list post.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If I believe Anxiety - and I'm closer to doing so than I was two hours ago - then the part of the message that is interesting to me is the "not who/what he appears to be".

Example - Night 3 list, Anxiety is told that someone he doesn't trust is not what they appear to be.

Well, Anxiety said that I had a "wolf vibe", that "Saldana is safe", and that "Blade is safest in game" - so I don't think that Fozzie could use those as people he doesn't trust.

That leaves Lathum and Cronin, although it isn't explicitly stated that he distrusts them either. Cronin's 2nd role reveal, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't occur until the start of Day 4. So that could be "not who they appear to be". Or it could be something with Lathum, whose tactics were examined in the trust list post.

Hypothetically speaking, if you believe Anxiety, where does that take us? Lathum?

[Barkeep49]

Well hoops if we are to believe Anxiety you seem like the odd man out on the trust list. And really no one here would really be surprised to find you were wolf or villager.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety's claims, as far as I can tell, do not have anything to do with Cronin's list. You cannot suggest that Cronin's list was used by SirFozzie since Cronin did not reveal who he had "sniffed" on Friday morning. So if you are saying that I'm "odd man out" I would like an explanation for where you are deriving this.

At this point I'm trying to understand if Anxiety is telling the truth - he has five votes right now and if I cast mine in his direction then he will be holding a majority of the votes. I haven't spent as much time looking at the ramifications of showing Anxiety as a wolf, although if it does result in more pressure on me then I guess so be it.

[st.cronin]

I have a problem with this:

Night 1 – I sensed eyes upon me. I did not know how to interpret this. Seer? Witness? Bodyguard? Reverse Seer? Just SF’s way of amping up the paranoia?

Also, hoops, what do you make of this:

Night 3 (Last night) – Just the opposite. I sensed that someone I did not trust was not who he appeared to be.

[hoopsguy]

I would be interested in hearing what Lathum thinks about Anxiety - he has yet to vote.

In fact, the people who have yet to vote are me, Lathum, Schmidty, and Ardent. Going from my published list earlier, none of those three have been cleared so I would be very interested to hear the perspectives of each of these people on Anxiety.

We have a lot of time left before the voting deadline, but at this moment I would be looking to vote for a different candidate than Anxiety (no, I would not self-vote).

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, on Anxiety's Night 3 stuff I already gave my initial vibe. Either it was referring to you, as you had not given a complete role reveal, or it was referring to Lathum in some way.

Night 2 - I wonder what Fozzie would have used to determine who Anxiety did or did not trust, as there was no trust list published for that evening. Reviewing Barkeep's list of Anxiety posts, the only one that sounds like a defense is of Blade. If he was not what he seems, so what? He was killed at night, so he was part of Team Wolf.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, on Anxiety's Night 3 stuff I already gave my initial vibe. Either it was referring to you, as you had not given a complete role reveal, or it was referring to Lathum in some way.

Night 2 - I wonder what Fozzie would have used to determine who Anxiety did or did not trust, as there was no trust list published for that evening. Reviewing Barkeep's list of Anxiety posts, the only one that sounds like a defense is of Blade. If he was not what he seems, so what? He was killed at night, so he was part of Team Wolf.

Well, since he DIDN'T trust me on day 2, could both items be about me then? I have to say, this seems like a real stretch.

[Lathum]

I was away all weekend and haven't had time to really catch up but I will have time tomrrow evening.

[Lathum]

I am going to hold off on voting, for right now it seems like anxiety is doing a fake role reveal to save his ass. The title doesn't add up and his abilities seem muddled at best, it all seems a little to convienient.

[hoopsguy]

One thing I didn't like about Anxiety's reveal was when Barkeep asked him if there were any clues dropped. As I've asked him questions it looks like there are, but his initial answer was "nope". And I know there is an argument about the semantics of "clues" here, but this part still gnaws at me a little.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety, Post #694:

I just came back from packing and boy, have things changed.

Look guys, I don't know strategy and what completely yet, but I think it's a bad idea if we reveal all of our roles on the same day, gives the antagonists too many targets. What should I do here?

-Anxiety

This was on Day 3 - Blade and I had completed reveals that day, Cronin had already completed his 1st reveal.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin had already completed his 1st reveal.

LOL, this game is too hilarious!! Paging Reporter's Assistant

[Abe Sargent]

Hoops, I didn't intentially leave any, but who knows what may have slipped.

To answer another question, I had outright said that I rolled with cronin and thought Blade was fine before getting the "someone you trust" pm. They were explicit in my posts, so I initially though SF was going for one of these. Then I got the you trust message, and since have posted trust circles for SF to help in case he is using my posts to garner info.

That's basically it.

-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

Hoopsguy, I suspect that one of your worries is that the votes against Anxiety today just piled up too quickly. Keep in mind that he had some pressure on him yesterday, as well. It's entirely possible that the bad guys decided to cut him loose.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I don't worry about "piled up too quickly" when there is this much time left in the voting. I do start getting second thoughts as the deadline approaches, but that isn't factoring very heavily in my thoughts at the moment.

[st.cronin]

Ok, well let me try this: Prior to Anxiety's reveal, what were your thoughts on him?

And what about the possibility that his role is something like what he has described, but that he is nevertheless an "antagonist"?

[hoopsguy]

Prior to his reveal, I thought he had been very erratic in his play and was having a difficult time understanding his methodology - human or wolf.

As far as being "antagonist" - well, the humans know who the wolves are (not the humans) so I'm not seeing a mirror role to what he is describing being likely here.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Prior to his reveal, I thought he had been very erratic in his play and was having a difficult time understanding his methodology - human or wolf.

As far as being "antagonist" - well, the humans know who the wolves are (not the humans) so I'm not seeing a mirror role to what he is describing being likely here.

Perhaps he recieves clues about wolf roles?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, was just looking at posts from when you started voting for Anxiety - back at post #687. That was at the point where he had just flip-flopped from trusting you to gunning for you.

That was Day 3, after he had gotten the Night 2 message about "trusted not what they seem". So that would explain his erratic behavior.

If he is lying, it was a pretty complex lie. It does a good job of explaining the roller-coaster ride of posts and suspicions he has displayed over the course of the game. I think it would be challenging to plan a fake role reveal that accomplished this.

If he is in fact receiving clues about wolf roles, then that is not a mirror role. That is speculation that goes too far from what is in the thread to be worth investing time on, in my opinion. What I care about discerning, to the best of my ability, is whether he is on my side.

If he is a wolf, then he is probably telling the truth.
If he is an antagonist, then at this point in the game I don't care too much what his role is - I just want to see us devour him and let the other team worry about what role they lost.

[st.cronin]

Well, if I think Anxiety is good, I don't know which way to go. I would probably flip a coin between Schmidty and ardent.

[st.cronin]

dola

I'm not close to convinced that he's on our side, but I've an open mind.