Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[spleen1015]

I don't know who to vote for today. You guys are making this tough. If I am seeing the same thing as hoops, then this might be the right decision.

VOTE st. cronin

[Alan T]

You guys are killing me. I already had been wondering about a spleen - hoops - st.cronin connection as I mentioned yesterday.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you feel I am the least trusted person left, then by all means vote for me. I'm the incorrect choice if you are good, or correct choice for vote if you're bad. However, all I ask is for you to give your reasons for it, for people to go back to look at later

You were the least trusted at the beginning of the day. And Iam not totally convinced that you are the non-role you claim. however my other post gives some inkling why I might be not as ready to vote you as iwas. If the groups analysis of how many we start with is off and there are no more than 4 umbrella (the number of named roles for that faction) we could be looking at something like 13-4-2 to start (best case scenario I realize) The only problem Ihave with this is the zombies woulda had 2 solo kills which woulda given them a 23.4% chance to have one of their number spotted. not awful but are the zombies gonna want to take a 1 in four chance or thereabouts to lessen thier numbers? I don't think they would yet, especially since they haven't been able to turn someone and they have already lost the Nemesis...

I am rambling but the upshot is I think 12-4-3 is likely or if we believe that a non names umbrella unit is out there 12-5-2 or 11-5-3. If it is the 11 stars to star with, I still am suspicious but since iam not as sure on that number as iwas ican see myself going elsewhere. I hope this rambling isn't completely impossible to follow.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if you are going to be around more tonight and would like me to get more specific about what I think I saw happening I'll chat it out with you. But I don't really think that there is enough benefit to doing so for the good guys at this point if people are already going along with the vote.

However, if people want it out there as a matter of public record, with the chance of a conversion during Night 3 then I'll be willing to go into it further if/when the Cronin lynch is complete.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

there are a few people playing UtR, and by all means I think going after them is a pretty good idea. I just don't to yet is all. Perhaps when the zombies finally kill 2 specific people, I'll feel a bit differently.

That is fine. I thought starting earlier might be better, but I'll wait until after our current plan shakes out.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, if you are going to be around more tonight and would like me to get more specific about what I think I saw happening I'll chat it out with you. But I don't really think that there is enough benefit to doing so for the good guys at this point if people are already going along with the vote.

However, if people want it out there as a matter of public record, with the chance of a conversion during Night 3 then I'll be willing to go into it further if/when the Cronin lynch is complete.

I know what I know, so spelling it out for me won't really help me any. If you know what I know or most of it and are a bad guy, then its pointless for me to even answer this and your question is rhetorical. If you are a good guy then I guess its good you figured more out but don't think it would really be something to spell out right now.

Some things in this game will spell themselves out just fine after people's death and perhaps in this game certain things arent needed to be rushed. Thats why I had no problem with people lynching me if thats what they feel is best. Everything will spell out just fine on my death.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

You were the least trusted at the beginning of the day. And Iam not totally convinced that you are the non-role you claim. however my other post gives some inkling why I might be not as ready to vote you as iwas. If the groups analysis of how many we start with is off and there are no more than 4 umbrella (the number of named roles for that faction) we could be looking at something like 13-4-2 to start (best case scenario I realize) The only problem Ihave with this is the zombies woulda had 2 solo kills which woulda given them a 23.4% chance to have one of their number spotted. not awful but are the zombies gonna want to take a 1 in four chance or thereabouts to lessen thier numbers? I don't think they would yet, especially since they haven't been able to turn someone and they have already lost the Nemesis...

I am rambling but the upshot is I think 12-4-3 is likely or if we believe that a non names umbrella unit is out there 12-5-2 or 11-5-3. If it is the 11 stars to star with, I still am suspicious but since iam not as sure on that number as iwas ican see myself going elsewhere. I hope this rambling isn't completely impossible to follow.

I think your math is off. I read the rules as the zombies (individually) have a 50% chance of making a kill and if they fail, a 12.5% chance of being spotted. Basically that means each zombie would have a 1/16 chance of being spotted on a solo kill (1/2 chance of failing * 1/8 chance of being spotted). If there are two zombies, there would be a 1/8 chance of at least one getting caught.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

You were the least trusted at the beginning of the day. And Iam not totally convinced that you are the non-role you claim. however my other post gives some inkling why I might be not as ready to vote you as iwas. If the groups analysis of how many we start with is off and there are no more than 4 umbrella (the number of named roles for that faction) we could be looking at something like 13-4-2 to start (best case scenario I realize) The only problem Ihave with this is the zombies woulda had 2 solo kills which woulda given them a 23.4% chance to have one of their number spotted. not awful but are the zombies gonna want to take a 1 in four chance or thereabouts to lessen thier numbers? I don't think they would yet, especially since they haven't been able to turn someone and they have already lost the Nemesis...

I am rambling but the upshot is I think 12-4-3 is likely or if we believe that a non names umbrella unit is out there 12-5-2 or 11-5-3. If it is the 11 stars to star with, I still am suspicious but since iam not as sure on that number as iwas ican see myself going elsewhere. I hope this rambling isn't completely impossible to follow.

I spoke some about this earlier today if you want to go back a bit and look at the numbers I was figuring. You might be going through the same thought process I did earlier. I originally thought there was 11-5-3, but as you can see earlier in the day I think its more likely now to be 12-5-2 or 12-4-3 now. I can see why you are considering this, since it was something I was trying to figure out earlier myself.

To be honest Im suprised the zombies havent hit an umbrella out of sheer luck so far. Thats why I felt my numbers on them might have been a bit high.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I think your math is off. I read the rules as the zombies (individually) have a 50% chance of making a kill and if they fail, a 12.5% chance of being spotted. Basically that means each zombie would have a 1/16 chance of being spotted on a solo kill (1/2 chance of failing * 1/8 chance of being spotted). If there are two zombies, there would be a 1/8 chance of at least one getting caught.

you are right about my math. Iforgot about the 50% success rate. but 1/8 isn't right I think.

Someone who knows Stats see if I am close (it has been a .long time since the dreaded class)

I am assuming that 2 zombie go after 2 different folks
1/4 of the time both kills succesful....100% unseen rate
2/4 of the time one succ. kill and 1 failure. for the failure there is 7/8 of the time unseen...total
1/2*7/8=7/16
1/4 of the time neither successful for each failure we have 7/8 unseen rate
total
1/4*(7/8)^2=49/256
addind the 3 possibilities together we get
1/4+7/16+49/256

equalling 225/256 or 87.8% unseen rate or 12.2% seen rate close but not exactly 1/8. I had to check. close enough

[SnDvls]

I'm sorry but what is everyone's suspicision of St. C again?

his self vote? I just don't see it at all.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Fouts

My thought process with this (at least until igo back and look through the "damning " evidence on Cronin) is a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. since it seems to be the consensus he is bad (although umbrella) My vote goes there for right now.

[BrianD]

I think you forgot the one case where both zombies fail their kill and both get caught. The odds of that happening would be 1/256 (1/16 * 1/16), or about .3%. Add that to your total and we get 12.5%.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I'm sorry but what is everyone's suspicision of St. C again?

his self vote? I just don't see it at all.

There is other stuff that I've hinted at and made weird psychotic ramblings on for a few days too. It sounds like a few others finally figured it out and I hope they are good. But either way, I am so confident that cronin is not stars that if he turns up good, you can lynch me tommorrow.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I think you forgot the one case where both zombies fail their kill and both get caught. The odds of that happening would be 1/256 (1/16 * 1/16), or about .3%. Add that to your total and we get 12.5%.

LoL

[ntndeacon]

no I didn't for get that as that is not a case. either both succeed both fail or only 1 fails. Iwasn't looking at seen rates (if iwas you are right ido need to worry about both being seen) but unseen rates. if they both fail each has a 7/8 of NOT getting seen so the not seen rate for this part would be as Istated earlier
1/4*7/8*7/8=49/256

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

There is other stuff that I've hinted at and made weird psychotic ramblings on for a few days too. It sounds like a few others finally figured it out and I hope they are good. But either way, I am so confident that cronin is not stars that if he turns up good, you can lynch me tommorrow.

I guess I have to be in the other boat then. I just can't see him being bad with how he acted just before and after the self vote.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I guess I have to be in the other boat then. I just can't see him being bad with how he acted just before and after the self vote.

Thats fine, vote with what you think is right. Just make sure you give good reasons for your vote or people will come to it later and ask you about it in detail.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

no I didn't for get that as that is not a case. either both succeed both fail or only 1 fails. Iwasn't looking at seen rates (if iwas you are right ido need to worry about both being seen) but unseen rates. if they both fail each has a 7/8 of NOT getting seen so the not seen rate for this part would be as Istated earlier
1/4*7/8*7/8=49/256

So you figured out the case where they both fail their attack (1/4) and neither of them is seen (7/8*7/8). The probability of this is 12.2% (I'll trust your multiplication). You would then need to add the probability of only one failing and neither being seen, then add the probability of only the other failing and not being seen , then add the probability of neither failing and neither being seen. I think it is easier to figure out the probability that at least one gets caught.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Glen, why did you coerce me onto SnDvls yesterday, but are hesitant to vote for him today?

I'm not hesitant really, as in I'm still leaning toward voting for him. I'm still not real satisfied with his answer. I'm going to have to go look and see if what he says is true about it being a 4-4 tie when he voted. I was catching up when I read his vote...so there might be room for me to have...err for me to be mistaken. I believed he voted when Alan was the main target, and not in a toss up situation. That said. The vote itself isn't what drew my suspicion, it was the accompanying statement that got my vote.

I didn't honestly coerce you, well I did urge you. Essentially I didn't like my other options, he was substantially suspicious to me, and I wanted to draw attention to him. You accused me of throwing my vote away, I felt pretty adamantly that I would be able to defend even the lynching of snDvls last night. So much so I said that if you voted for him, we could get him in the running. I still stand by that now.

As of now, one thing making me hesitant to vote with you is this tide indicating that you are Umbrella. I don't really want to be allied to you, even if the only measure of that is this vote. The downside is that seems where I'm drawn to vote by my instinct.

[Alan T]

I can't believe you all are arguing over .003 lol.

[BrianD]

NTN, I'm trying to do the math on the situations that I think you missed, but it isn't working out. I knew there was a reason I hated statistics.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I'm not hesitant really, as in I'm still leaning toward voting for him. I'm still not real satisfied with his answer. I'm going to have to go look and see if what he says is true about it being a 4-4 tie when he voted. I was catching up when I read his vote...so there might be room for me to have...err for me to be mistaken. I believed he voted when Alan was the main target, and not in a toss up situation. That said. The vote itself isn't what drew my suspicion, it was the accompanying statement that got my vote.

I didn't honestly coerce you, well I did urge you. Essentially I didn't like my other options, he was substantially suspicious to me, and I wanted to draw attention to him. You accused me of throwing my vote away, I felt pretty adamantly that I would be able to defend even the lynching of snDvls last night. So much so I said that if you voted for him, we could get him in the running. I still stand by that now.

As of now, one thing making me hesitant to vote with you is this tide indicating that you are Umbrella. I don't really want to be allied to you, even if the only measure of that is this vote. The downside is that seems where I'm drawn to vote by my instinct.

From day 2

(586) St.cronin UNVOTES St.cronin (4) ***
(586) St.cronin votes Alan (3)
(602) Tyrith UNVOTES Fouts (0) ***
(602) Tyrith Votes Alan (4)
(631) Fouts votes BrianD (1)
(641) Mr. Wednesday votes BrianD (2)
(642) path votes Lathum (1)
(643) hoops votes Lathum (2)
(658) Sndvls votes Alan (5)
(665) Tyrith UNVOTES Alan (4) ***
(665) Tyrith Votes Lathum (3)
(698) Lonestargirl UNVOTES Alan (3) ***
(698) Lonestargirl Votes lathum (4)
(700) Glengoyne votes Sndvls (1)

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I can't believe you all are arguing over .003 lol.

I've got a math degree and I suck at statistics. I keep trying to get myself to finaly figure this stuff out but it never seems to work.

[ntndeacon]

I too have a math degree or 2 but hate statistics lol

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I've got a math degree and I suck at statistics. I keep trying to get myself to finaly figure this stuff out but it never seems to work.

You all will hate me then. All of my percentages this entire game I've been rounding where convienant to the nearest % in most cases.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I too have a math degree or 2 but hate statistics lol

Yeah, how sad are we?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You all will hate me then. All of my percentages this entire game I've been rounding where convienant to the nearest % in most cases.

I did not like your 43% randomly getting a zombie or umbrella either now that you mentioned it. lol did a partial analysis on this then quit (part of the reason Idistrusted you) I thought you were giving out bad info and trying to sway us with faulty numbers

[Alan T]

Ok, i have to log on to my work vpn and do a network change. I wont be able to connect here till done. Might be 1 hour or 2 hours. Hopefully back before deadline.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I did not like your 43% randomly getting a zombie or umbrella either now that you mentioned it. lol did a partial analysis on this then quit (part of the reason Idistrusted you) I thought you were giving out bad info and trying to sway us with faulty numbers

Nope, was basing it on the numbers i had figured at the time. (if there were 12 good guys to start, 4 dead.. means 8/14 left are STARS). But thats taking into assumption we started with 12 STARS which may or may not be correct.

But anyways, got to bolt. back in an hour or two

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Yeah, how sad are we?

my associates at work would claim very lol

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Alan T

From day 2

(586) St.cronin UNVOTES St.cronin (4) ***
(586) St.cronin votes Alan (3)
(602) Tyrith UNVOTES Fouts (0) ***
(602) Tyrith Votes Alan (4)
(631) Fouts votes BrianD (1)
(641) Mr. Wednesday votes BrianD (2)
(642) path votes Lathum (1)
(643) hoops votes Lathum (2)
(658) Sndvls votes Alan (5)
(665) Tyrith UNVOTES Alan (4) ***
(665) Tyrith Votes Lathum (3)
(698) Lonestargirl UNVOTES Alan (3) ***
(698) Lonestargirl Votes lathum (4)
(700) Glengoyne votes Sndvls (1)

See, now you could have posted that before I went back and dug it up. I know at the time I read snDvls vote, I was thinking things were leading to your lynch. The facts bear that out. snDvls launched at you prior to the run on Lathum.

This makes up my mind. snDvls is still suspicious.

vote snDvls

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I too have a math degree or 2 but hate statistics lol

My wife has the math degree in our family, but I still wear the pants!

[Alan T]

well good news, my network change didn't get the VP approval, so guess i can't do it. So you all are stuck with me tonight after all.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

See, now you could have posted that before I went back and dug it up. I know at the time I read snDvls vote, I was thinking things were leading to your lynch. The facts bear that out. snDvls launched at you prior to the run on Lathum.

This makes up my mind. snDvls is still suspicious.

vote snDvls

If you look closely it was tied cronin 4, me 4. Not me and Lathum. The people jumped from me to Lathum to make that run.

Not saying that sndvls isn't suspicious, just want to make sure you dont give him false reasons to attack you back on

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

See, now you could have posted that before I went back and dug it up. I know at the time I read snDvls vote, I was thinking things were leading to your lynch. The facts bear that out. snDvls launched at you prior to the run on Lathum.

This makes up my mind. snDvls is still suspicious.

vote snDvls

you need to reread it again Glen

it was tied 4-4 St. C & Alan
I broke the tie to make it 5-4 Alan I don't belive it ever got higher than 5 on Alan so if I started a run I hope it wasn't a sprint because the race is over when I voted.

[SnDvls]

and he did the exact same thing I did yesterday.

use faulty logic...vote...leave

[hoopsguy]

Here is where I have the vote, as of Post #1186:


(5) St Cronin - Alan T (949), hoopsguy (1100), Path (1137), BrianD (1143), Spleen (1151)
(2) Fouts - Anxiety (979), NTN (1161)
(2) SnDVls - Fouts (935), Glengoyne (1181)
(1) Anxiety - St Cronin (987)

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I agree with the strategy of going after someone that is UTR.

I still believe that Alan is pushing too hard for st. cronin. Yesterday, it made me think he was a bad guy. Today, since he uis still at it, I think he is doing it because he is a good guy who really thinks st. cronin is bad. I don't think st. cronin is bad. Of the three, Alan/st. cronin/hoops, i would believe hoops was a bad guy before any of them. If he is, he's a zombie.

I agree that LSG looks suspicious, but I always think she is. It must be her style of play.

HEEEEY, you agree that i am suspicious? Who else said i was? And how do i act suspicious every game?

[SnDvls]

vote Glengoyne

he did exactally what he is accusing me of
I don't like St. C as a canidate for today and I haven't
since he's been on the block so I can't go that way.
honestly I have no read on fouts or Anxiety to put anything on them
so this is the way I'm going today

[hoopsguy]

Think it is Rum, LSG, and MrW without votes at this point.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

HEEEEY, you agree that i am suspicious? Who else said i was? And how do i act suspicious every game?

You always seem to come in, post one or 2 lines, then take off for a few more hours. Rinse, repeat every day. Even when you vote you give a 1 or 2 line reason why you are voting the way you do and that's about it.

I watch the thread pretty much all day long from 8:30am until about 5pm. Then I'm on in spurts between 5pm-8:30pm. After that I watch the thread the rest of the night, usually. So, I see a lot of the comings and goings of everyone.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

vote Glengoyne

he did exactally what he is accusing me of
I don't like St. C as a canidate for today and I haven't
since he's been on the block so I can't go that way.
honestly I have no read on fouts or Anxiety to put anything on them
so this is the way I'm going today

2 things jump out at me about this.

1) You vote for him for doing the same thing you did. So we should lynch you and then him? Not a good move for you.

2) You're backing st.cronin makes him even more suspicious.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

You always seem to come in, post one or 2 lines, then take off for a few more hours. Rinse, repeat every day. Even when you vote you give a 1 or 2 line reason why you are voting the way you do and that's about it.

I watch the thread pretty much all day long from 8:30am until about 5pm. Then I'm on in spurts between 5pm-8:30pm. After that I watch the thread the rest of the night, usually. So, I see a lot of the comings and goings of everyone.

Lol you are right.... I am a 22 year old girl getting her masters while teaching high school geometry and algebra, while house hunting, and having to spend too much time with my boyfriend and three dogs.... Sorry Spleen

Anyways he's right... that is something i'll work on in the next games I play and over the weekend. I am not voting for Cronin.... and i keep going back and forward between Fouts and SNDVLS, they both don't feel like STARS but i dont know which way to go.

[LoneStarGirl]

I feel that Cronin is not a zombie...whether he is an umbrella or not i dont know. Both SnDvls and I feel about the same about Cronin,

Fouts on the other hand doesn't agree that Cronin is good... so that is where I am leaning. Now i get to watch the Cardinals win the World Series! Be back before lynch.

Vote Fouts

[LoneStarGirl]

And BrianD....I am coming after you next

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Fouts

2) You're backing st.cronin makes him even more suspicious.

not quite sure what you are saying here. me backing St. C has nothign to do w/ Glen except that I'm not voting St. C in the people who had votes.

same with why I didn't vote you or anxiety.

it's like I said. he was critical of what I did yesterday, but did the same today.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

And BrianD....I am coming after you next

Because I put a little heat on you?

Is this another drive-by?

[SnDvls]

sorry should say ...I'm not voting St. C or the people who had votes

[Chief Rum]

I've covered the past couple of pages. Just have a couple of minutes between jobs here.

It looks like I get to do what I wanted to do last night, and

vote cronin

I won't be back till late. After Deadline

[SnDvls]

OOC: it's time for dinner out here in AZ and then to my wife's work (elementary school) is having a disco night. I should be back before lynch, but not sure when.