Werewolf XXV: A long time ago...game over, Sith win,full role listing at 2030

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

No, I said your deductive skills need work.

As do yours. You're voting for a jedi. I'm voting for a Sith.

You'll have A TON of explaining to do when I'm gone. I'm looking forward to your death.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

As do yours. You're voting for a jedi. I'm voting for a Sith.

You'll have A TON of explaining to do when I'm gone. I'm looking forward to your death.

I look forward to it. I love to write. The pressure you are applying to me almost makes me want to vote for Taz just to prove a point. But that won't happen. I would never do that as a jedi.

[path12]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Right, but just as we aren't the totality of the Jedi Order, I don't believe the Sith we'd be facing to be the totality of the Sith Order.

Therefore, it makes sense to me that a Sith infiltration on the Embleton flight would be a master/apprentice situation rather than a Sith Collective.

There could be a ton of Sith, but it doesn't mean they associate with one another the same way the Jedi Council do.

Sack, as a Star Wars idiot, could you explain this in real short words that I might understand?

[Poli]

You would never do that as a Jedi. As it is, I have more important stuff to do than to argue with a nimrod who can tell which side is up.

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by path12

Sack, as a Star Wars idiot, could you explain this in real short words that I might understand?

It is easier for two Sith to get onboard undetected than have a werewolf ratio of I don't know, let's say 4 Sith getting onboard.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

You would never do that as a Jedi. As it is, I have more important stuff to do than to argue with a nimrod who can tell which side is up.

Ok, get going on that important stuff then. I'm sure you'll be back at 9:29 to vote anyway.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by path12

Sack, as a Star Wars idiot, could you explain this in real short words that I might understand?

okay. We...what, we've got 13 people left on board here? Okay, 13 - Sith != complete Jedi Order. If there are two Sith on this ship, and 11 Jedi, those 11 Jedi aren't all there are in the universe. However, Jedi do tend to travel collectively, so it makes sense that there are several of us here.

The Sith, on the other hand, could well have a number of adherents...but that doesn't mean they travel collectively the way we do.

There could be a million Sith in the galaxy, and have us still only have a master and apprentice on board. Two escapes detection much easier than four or five.

It's part of what makes the Dark Side so insidious. It's like a shadow - always there, but you can never quite grab hold of it. It's not like an army that you can confront on the field of battle.

I almost DO hope there are more than two, so that if we manage to crack that shell, we can get them in quick succession. But the fewer there are, the more I fear for our survival hopes, because we'll have to lose good Jedi to find them, and they still get their crack at us at night.

[hoopsguy]

Desnudo, my thought that there are two Sith is because that we haven't found one yet. If we still have a seer, this is mathematically unlikely.

Lets say we start with 4 Sith, which means 19 Jedi. One of which is the Seer himself.
Night 1: 17/4 - lost Superman
Night 2: 14/4 - lost Eagles/Alan/Lathum
Night 3: 14/3 - Dubb scores as Sith (more on this below)
Night 4: 12/3 - lost Schmidty, Qwikshot

1 - [(17/21) * (14/18) * (14/17) * (12/15)] =
1 - (.8095*.7777*.8235*.8) =
1 - 0.4147 = 58.53% chance on pure random selections of hitting a Sith. And that is including Dubb as a Sith even though I don't believe he was.

Given some rational decision making, the seer should have better chances than this and they go up even further if he was allowed a scan on Night 0.

Going with a 20-3 ratio seems steep, although I guess it is possible if they had two Sith and Dubb winning with a Sith victory.
53.5% chance of just randomly hitting a Sith with four scans. If there was a Night 0 scan allowed that value jumps to 61.6%.

The 21-2 ratio seems pretty impossible for the Sith, but it does up the ante for the Jedi seer to find one (will run the numbers if someone wants me to). And if you figure that they have a conversion somewhere along the way, due to the lure of the dark side, then this makes a little more sense.

Now, I don't believe that Dubb was a Sith. Going back to post #726 he had a "pale lavender blade", not the "scarlet of a Sith". And I'm including the part of that post that seems to make this most clear (bold supplied by me).

Dubb's last words leave you just as confused as Lathum's. It is obvious that he was evil, but his lavender lightsaber and inablity to fully harness the power of the Dark Side make it seem as though he was not actually a Sith.

Long post, but you asking the question forced me to put some numbers behind my instinct on why I think there are only 2 Sith.

[hoopsguy]

I have some earlier calcluations in the middle of the above post, based on a bad set of assumptions (basically did 17/21 four times, which I quickly realized was not correct). So please disregard the following text that appears in the post above:

53.5% chance of just randomly hitting a Sith with four scans. If there was a Night 0 scan allowed that value jumps to 61.6%.

Would just edit it out, but I try very hard to avoid editing during WW games, per the conventional rules.

[SnDvls]

I really think Taz is good and would like to go the Tanglewood route today, but to prevent a quick switch like yesterday I have to vote this way as I really feel AE is good.

Vote Taz

AE is more help to us in the long run, but I really feel this is a jedi/jedi showdown again.

[SnDvls]

dola - and I notice we have 2 guests view us now too.

[SackAttack]

For the time being, I'm going to stay on Tanglewood. I still believe AE is Jedi, and I don't know what to think about Taz.

[hoopsguy]

Latest vote count, as of Post #1159:

Taz - Ardent (1064), Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120)
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128)

Have not yet voted: SnDvls, Path12, Taz, Tanglewood, Cartman

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Latest vote count, as of Post #1159:

Taz - Ardent (1064), Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120)
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128)

Have not yet voted: SnDvls, Path12, Taz, Tanglewood, Cartman

SnDvls just voted.

[SnDvls]

Latest vote count, as of Post #1164
Taz - Ardent (1064), Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120), SnDvls (1160)
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128)

Have not yet voted: Path12, Taz, Tanglewood, Cartman

fixed it for ya

[path12]

I'd prefer to vote Tangle, since he seems the most suspicious in my mind with the late switch.

I'd also like to hear from Gram why he's voting against what AE is saying when AE is so high on his trust list.

I'm not sold on Taz, mainly because I'm not fully sold on AE, though I am leaning more in favor of him being good than I was earlier. If Taz ends up good than AE is gone tomorrow, but we're down yet another Jedi.

Anyway, my vote is 99% Tangle or Taz. I just need to decide which one.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by path12

I'd prefer to vote Tangle, since he seems the most suspicious in my mind with the late switch.

I'd also like to hear from Gram why he's voting against what AE is saying when AE is so high on his trust list.

I'm not sold on Taz, mainly because I'm not fully sold on AE, though I am leaning more in favor of him being good than I was earlier. If Taz ends up good than AE is gone tomorrow, but we're down yet another Jedi.

Anyway, my vote is 99% Tangle or Taz. I just need to decide which one.

that's the boat I was in, but if I had voted Tangle and all the other non-voters had done the same all tangle would have to do is show up late like he tried yesterday and lynch Taz.

If taz is good we're down a jedi, but I think we'd have two strong targets in AE and Tangle.

[path12]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

that's the boat I was in, but if I had voted Tangle and all the other non-voters had done the same all tangle would have to do is show up late like he tried yesterday and lynch Taz.

If taz is good we're down a jedi, but I think we'd have two strong targets in AE and Tangle.

Well, I'm willing to try and start a bandwagon then. If it's close before I leave work at 5 Pacific I'll likely switch, but just to see if anyone wants to follow Sack and I:

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[Desnudo]

All right, I'll play ball Path. I believe Barkeep was a jedi, erego you are to. I'm tired of watching jedi after jedi get eliminated. I really believe Taz to be a jedi based on his behaviour and the reaction to him. Tanglewood's mis-vote certainly highlights him as a suspect in a botched frame-up attempt.

Unvote AE

Vote Tanglewood

[saldana]

as it was requested:

1. Lathum, lynched, day 2
2. Kwhit
3. Hoopsguy
4. Grammaticus
5. TazFTW
6. EaglesFan27, slain, night 1
7. Tanglewood
8. Cartman
9. Kingfc22
10. Desnudo
11. Pennywisesb
12. StKelly52
13. Qwikshot, lynched, day 4
14. Barkeep49/Path12
15. Alan T, died, night 1
16. SnDvls
17. Ardent Enthusiast
18. Superman=#54, lynched day 1
19. Dubb93, lynched, day 3
20. JeeberD
21. SackAttack
22. McKerney, slain, night 4
23. Schmidty, slain, night 3

[path12]

So that puts us at 6 Taz, 3 Tangle, 2 AE and 1 Hoops. Any Taz voters willing to jump to Tangle?

[cartman]

Call me a bandwagon jumper. I hope I'm not wrong about this vote.

VOTE Tanglewood

[Raiders Army]

Go wolves!

[Poli]

This game is giving me a headache. Guys, we have to unify with our votes. I can't say this enough. Yesterday should be all you need for evidence. We have to have a clear cut lynch.

While I'm currently okay with my two most suspected wolves on the block right now, I'm still concerned about someone feeling compelled to vote.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

This game is giving me a headache. Guys, we have to unify with our votes. I can't say this enough. Yesterday should be all you need for evidence. We have to have a clear cut lynch.

While I'm currently okay with my two most suspected wolves on the block right now, I'm still concerned about someone feeling compelled to vote.

then get with us and don't allow another tie. If you move off Taz then I can too and thus no tie....right now.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by path12

So that puts us at 6 Taz, 3 Tangle, 2 AE and 1 Hoops. Any Taz voters willing to jump to Tangle?

I am, but I want to make sure he can't jump in and sway it late again. Waiting on AE's move.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

This game is giving me a headache. Guys, we have to unify with our votes. I can't say this enough. Yesterday should be all you need for evidence. We have to have a clear cut lynch.

While I'm currently okay with my two most suspected wolves on the block right now, I'm still concerned about someone feeling compelled to vote.

It doesn't hurt right now to see if there is movement towards one of the top two suspects (which we all seem to agree with so far, you said yourself that Tangle was way up on your list).

I just think that we can come to an easier consensus on Tangle than Taz but that nobody wanted to waste their vote. We'll see. There's always time to switch if need be.

[Poli]

If we move off, it actually promotes a tie. I think it's 6-3-2-1. Two more votes to Tangle would make it 5-4-2-1. I want to avoid a lower vote total if at all possible. In other words, the person we lynch needs to have a couple of votes over his closest opponent or the vote may be switched.

The only other scenario I have right now is that maybe we're toying with two Sith right now. If that's the case, it doesn't matter who's the leading vote getter.

[SnDvls]

unvote Taz
Vote Tangle

Ardent, if you stay you are potentally allowing a person a lot of us feel is a jedi dieing.

[Poli]

Sndvls, if one other person is willing to switch over to tangle then I will. That way it's another 6-3-2-1.

Are Taz and tanglewood's votes still outstanding?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

If we move off, it actually promotes a tie. I think it's 6-3-2-1. Two more votes to Tangle would make it 5-4-2-1. I want to avoid a lower vote total if at all possible. In other words, the person we lynch needs to have a couple of votes over his closest opponent or the vote may be switched.

The only other scenario I have right now is that maybe we're toying with two Sith right now. If that's the case, it doesn't matter who's the leading vote getter.

but you know Taz and Tangle both still have to vote and they will vote for each other leaving a 3rd player to have to tie it up and thus putting the target on their back tomorrow. Would the sith really risk that?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

unvote Taz
Vote Tangle

Ardent, if you stay you are potentally allowing a person a lot of us feel is a jedi dieing.

Very well, though I'm not compelled to vote Tangle as I was Qwikshot.

[Poli]

Dola, I'll stick to it. If someone else will swap over, I will.

[Poli]

Last concern:

Let's say both their votes are still out there, and they're both Sith.

Let's say the vote is 6-3-2-1....where the 6 and 3 can be just about anyone. If those two come in and vote me...and compel someone else to vote me...Hmm...it would still be 6-5. I can dig that.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Sndvls, if one other person is willing to switch over to tangle then I will. That way it's another 6-3-2-1.

Are Taz and tanglewood's votes still outstanding?

yes both votes are still outstanding.

Maybe hoops will move with you as you two seem to be attached at the moment.

[Poli]

Mmmmm....dang it. What to do.

All right, I'm diving in.

Unvote Taz

Vote Tanglewood.

[SnDvls]

by my count the only outstanding votes are Taz & Tangle

is this correct?

[Poli]

Taz would make me feel a whole lot better about Taz by voting Tanglewood at this moment.

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Taz would make me feel a whole lot better about Taz by voting Tanglewood at this moment.

The problem I see is that if I vote Tanglewood and he comes up Jedi, do I not still look suspicious?

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by TazFTW

The problem I see is that if I vote Tanglewood and he comes up Jedi, do I not still look suspicious?

As opposed to how swimmingly things are going right now? I agree that Tangle is by no means a slam dunk, but it appears most people who I somewhat trust believe either you or Ardent or both, to be jedi.

[hoopsguy]

This how people have the votes? As of Post #1190 ...

Taz - Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120)
Ardent - King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128), Path (1168), Desnudo (1169), Cartman (1172), SnDvls (1179), Ardent (1186)

Not Voted - Taz, Tanglewood

[Poli]

Whew? Anyone else see the weight come off my back? That would be my instructor making my 10 page assignment a whole lot easier.

That wind you felt was my sigh of relief.

[Poli]

As for Taz, as a Jedi, he should be afraid of someone being compelled to vote for him. I'd think he wouldn't want the vote to be close between him (a self proclaimed Jedi) and someone he doesn't know the status of.

[path12]

Out of here in a couple minutes. I'll leave my vote where it's at. Sure would be nice to see a bit more margin though.

[Poli]

Triple: It wouldn't take much "compelling" to move the vote back over from tangle to taz...and I'm afraid I may be the target of such a move again.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by path12

It doesn't hurt right now to see if there is movement towards one of the top two suspects (which we all seem to agree with so far, you said yourself that Tangle was way up on your list).

I just think that we can come to an easier consensus on Tangle than Taz but that nobody wanted to waste their vote. We'll see. There's always time to switch if need be.

Unvote Ardent Enthusiast

Vote Tanglewood


Well, earlier when I voted, it seemed to be choosing only between AE and Taz and I'm not convinced Taz is a sith (especially with his erratic play). AE has been fishy, but I don't think he's been nearly as fishy as Tanglewood and his "vote" last night. So, tangle it is. I think by doing this, we can clear alot of things up. Hopefully he'll come up sith and then AE will jump to the top of my trust list, even with his weird play.

[hoopsguy]

I'll move the vote off of Taz if it is needed to prevent a possible two-vote swing.

[Poli]

I'm concerned there could be a 2 vote swing, hoops.

[hoopsguy]

UNVOTE TAZ
VOTE KWHIT

I'm basically throwing this vote away right now in terms of seeing the guy lynched tonight, but creating a four vote difference between Taz and Tanglewood. Might as well vote on the guy I've been suspicious about in an effort to lead conversation there tomorrow if/when he is still around.

[Poli]

I'll say this:

As we get closer to the deadline, if someone comes in and changes their vote without an explanation at all...and by that I mean

UNVOTE YODA
VOTE R2D2

and absolutely nothing else, you may have a candidate of someone being compelled to vote. For a better example, look at my vote switch from Taz to Qwik.