NFL 2019 Season Thread

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by lungs

Anybody going to go back in time and dig up the Lamar Jackson predictions from the draft?

When the Saints traded up in that draft, I was super excited because I assumed it was for Jackson.

So I am really bad at predicting things, but I at least got that one right.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by lungs

Anybody going to go back in time and dig up the Lamar Jackson predictions from the draft?

I've never seen a player improve in 1 year as much as Lamar has. He looked Tebow-esque last year. This offense is perfectly tayored to his strengths, but his ball placement and accuracy have taken extraordinary steps forward.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I've never seen a player improve in 1 year as much as Lamar has. He looked Tebow-esque last year. This offense is perfectly tayored to his strengths, but his ball placement and accuracy have taken extraordinary steps forward.

I let him go in a keeper league as I also had Mahomes: wanted to keep him but couldn’t justify his salary compared to starters I could retain.

That was a great decision

[molson]

Originally Posted by Sweed

How did Belichek look with the Browns?

Pretty good in retrospect. He's the most successful NFL Cleveland franchise head coach in the last 30 years. And there were big hopes for the '95 season before Modell pulled the rug out.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

But but but ... they have to impress the committee.

Oh wait. They're only dressed like Oregon tonight. My bad.

Did you get a load of Baylor last week? Oy.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by molson

Pretty good in retrospect. He's the most successful NFL Cleveland franchise head coach in the last 30 years.

In other words, he had a pulse?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Blough vs. Trubisky!

NFL action at its best!!!

Going to be a classic!

[cuervo72]

As a newly-minted Purdue fan, looking forward to Blough!

[Kodos]

Whoa whoa whoa! Why would you mint yourself as a Purdue fan? There are better options out there!

[cuervo72]

Not anywhere I'm currently paying tuition to.

[tarcone]

At least they will get a good education. Hey, basketball season has started.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

As a newly-minted Purdue fan, looking forward to Blough!

So who put Blough on their fantasy team this week?

[NobodyHere]

Well that's one way to do an onside kick (just drill the player on the other team with the ball)

[Atocep]

I'm adding David Blough to the list of QBs better than Trubisky.

[bhlloy]

What worse - Trubisky or Jerome Boger’s crew?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'm adding David Blough to the list of QBs better than Trubisky.

It’s almost incredible that a QB who has started for over 2 full seasons at this point can’t make more than one read. Never mind the inaccuracy, how can you be that bad at reading a defense after 2.75 years in the league. Is some of it on Nagy?

[NobodyHere]

Nice job Ford Field

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It’s almost incredible that a QB who has started for over 2 full seasons at this point can’t make more than one read. Never mind the inaccuracy, how can you be that bad at reading a defense after 2.75 years in the league. Is some of it on Nagy?

I've had a lot of discussion about Trubisky with a friend of mine and I've watched hours of video breakdowns of his play and this my feelings on Trubisky:

His primary issue is the inability to process information quickly. I don't think that's really a teachable trait. It's something you either have or you don't. Because of that, I don't think there's any way for Trubisky to be a consistently successful QB.

His footwork is inconsistent from throw to throw and I also don't know how much of that you can put on Nagy. It's been a point of emphasis since Nagy was hired and Trubisky goes through stretches where he steps into this throws and the ball comes out clean and then he goes back to fade-aways and throws that are all arm. Whatever he's being taught just doesn't seem to stick.

He's also great lesson on the risk of taking a QB with limited college experience. Analytics and scouts both liked him coming out of UNC. There were some red flags that pop up in hindsight though.

His stats against top 30 defenses that year were: 63% 246ypg 6.3ypa 13td 4int

Those are solid numbers, but not top 5 pick numbers. The YPA also jumps out (again in hindsight) as a possible red flag for his ability to process information. A number that low tells me he's likely forced to check down quite a bit against the better defenses he saw. That's consistent with what we've seen with him in the NFL.

I really believe if he had been forced to play another season at UNC we would have seen regression as defenses got a year of film to process over the offseason and gameplan to take away the few things he does well.

When you watch film breakdown of Bears games there are open guys on nearly every play and Trubisky will look at them while taking a sack, check down to Cohen or another outlet, or force the ball to his primary option. Nagy has also simplified the offense to the point where Trubisky is running an offense you'd expect for a rookie and he's still failing.

Nagy's not without blame in Chicago's mess. Every single O-lineman has regressed significantly this year and the receivers are poorly coached. They've compounded the Trubisky problems by choosing the incorrect route option on a regular basis which is often putting 2 guys in the same area and making Trubisky look even worse than he already is.

Ryan Pace also plays a role here. I'd argue he's more at fault than anyone. He drafted Trubisky, he went all on this roster with the Mack trade, and he's failed to get players that fit what Nagy wants to do offensively. Pace has been a serious upgrade over Emery and the later half of the Angelo regime, but the Trubisky+Mack trades will probably set the bears back 5 years (maybe more if the McCaskeys compound those issues by doing McCaskey things).

Overall, the entire organization continues to be a mess. The fans tend to want good defense and a running game, but it's not a sustainable way to win in the NFL. Football Outsiders has shown defense varies year to year far more than offense. The Bears are a leading example:

The Bears Are Stumbling After a Playoff Run. Yes, Again. | FiveThirtyEight

[weegeebored]

Well written analysis, Atocep. Not sure how anyone rated him higher than Watson given his 13 starts at that well-known football powerhouse UNC. He couldn't even beat out Marquise Williams who failed in the NFL and CFL, and was no great shakes in the AAF.

[Honolulu_Blue]

If only Trubisky could play the Lions every week. In two games against the Lions he has 6 touchdown passes. He has 7 touchdown passes the other ten weeks.

[MizzouRah]

Buffalo is a fun team to watch. I just hope the Eagles wake up since Dallas is keeping them alive in the division race.

[bronconick]

Atlanta just got back to back onside kicks.

[bhlloy]

Sadly, the Atlanta offense had to take the field after both

[QuikSand]

great write-up, Atocep, thanks

[molson]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Atlanta just got back to back onside kicks.

Other NFL kickers on onside kicks this season: 2 for 34
Younghoe Koo on onside kicks: 2 for 2.

It helps that the Saints just stood there and didn't even try to get the ball on the first one, but, still impressive.

[MizzouRah]

I bet Matt Ryan can barely get out of bed today after those 8 sacks.

[albionmoonlight]

This Saints team is winning, so awesome. But they do not look like the great teams I have seen (2009, 2011, 2018). The good news is that the NFC is pretty flawed, and there is only one other team (SF) that looks clearly better than them.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Not anywhere I'm currently paying tuition to.

Heh. I figured that might be the reason.

[miked]

I mean, some of this is on Ryan. A few of those sacks on the last 2 drives he just stood there. There is no movement or ability to detect a rush.

[albionmoonlight]

Patriots sign Kai Forbath.

This guy just screams "Will miss two extra points and 32 yd field goal in the AFC Championship" to me.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: Of course, they are the Pats, so they will still end up winning, but it will give Belichick something to be mad about during Super Bowl week.

[bhlloy]

Freddie Kitchens just isn't very smart, is he?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Freddie Kitchens just isn't very smart, is he?

My favorite line is that he didn't think anyone would see it... yet he was posing for pictures...

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This Saints team is winning, so awesome. But they do not look like the great teams I have seen (2009, 2011, 2018). The good news is that the NFC is pretty flawed, and there is only one other team (SF) that looks clearly better than them.

I'm very intrigued to watch the next two weeks. The Ravens and the Saints, back-to-back on the road, will be an incredible litmus test for the 49ers.

The Ravens are tough not only because they're just an amazing football team, but their strengths on offense play exactly to the weaknesses of the 49ers defense. The Ravens run the ball incredibly well and have a mobile quarterback. The 49ers are giving up 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground...and with Ingram and Jackson, that could easily get exposed. On the road, in what is supposed to be bad weather (43 degrees, 100% chance of rain at game time)...should be a fun one to watch for sure.

The Saints are tough to get a read on, though. They looked amazing when they rattled off all those wins without Brees. But reading things like what you posted here albion, noting multiple opinions that Brees has lost a bit on his arm this year, and seeing them struggle mightily with mediocre to just plain bad teams in recent weeks (Atlanta and Carolina, I'm looking at you) makes me wonder where the team that handled Seattle on the road with their backup quarterback went.

As for the rest of the NFC, I think it's pretty much this pecking order right now:

1. 49ers
2. Saints
3. Seahawks
...
4. The Vikings, maybe?
5. Green Bay, sorta?

It may be unfair to unequivocally put the Seahawks below the 49ers when they recently beat the 49ers on the road, but that was a coin flip game where the 49ers' backup kicker missed a game-winner in OT, and the Seahawks have just terrible advanced statistics (+29 net points, 29th passing defense in the league, etc).

[Edward64]

Woo hoo. The Falcons are back in the Top 5 to pick for 2020 Draft.

[Thomkal]

Looks like its going to be a wet/snowy and windy day in most East Coast/Midwest stadiums today-too bad Green Bay is playing in NY though. Could make for some fun Football Follies...

[EagleFan]

That's twice I've seen Darnold do that. 4th down play late in the game on a must convert and he throws the ball away out of bounds. WTF? Even if you just throw it up for grabs in the middle of the field you have at least some
small chance to convert.

[Atocep]

I hope at least 1 person throws a coach of the year vote Brian Flores's way.

[Thomkal]

Pretty embarasing losses for Jets, Eagles, Carolina

[Vince, Pt. II]

Hard to be disappointed with a 10-2 record, a combined margin of defeat of 6 points, both losses to Super Bowl contenders, one in OT with a missed game-winning field goal from a backup Kicker and the other on the road in miserable field conditions...

...but if the Seahawks take care of business this week, the 49ers are the #5 seed in the NFC right now. And both of those losses were very winnable.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

3. Seahawks

Seahawks are vastly overrated.

Could have easily lost at home to the Bengals and Bucs, They beat the Rams at home(below average team) by a point. They have beaten the 49ers and nothing else and should have 3-4 more losses. Having a great QB gets you wins when you dont deserve it however when the games get bigger the great QBs tend to not be able to carry an entire team.

[albionmoonlight]

To listen to Michaels and Collisworth, you'd think that every team other than the Pats has five Pro Bowl receivers.

[RendeR]

Cris Collinsworth makes a living sucking New England's Dicks. (all of them)

[bhlloy]

No kidding. It’s possible the receivers are the root of a lot of problems, but Brady has just made a bunch of shit throws as well. He’s still got Edelman and probably the best receiving back in the league.

[molson]

He's in my top 3 Boston athletes of all time, but Brady's toast. It reminds me of 2001 Brady where you knew he couldn't complete long passes but the Pats could win with defense and coaching. They can still win now, like Manning did at the end, the defense is good enough. But I do think these are the end times for Brady - happy to be wrong (broken record, but Pats should have drafted Lamar Jackson instead of Sony - easy to say now, but, lots of people thought it would happen at the time)

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Seahawks are vastly overrated.

Could have easily lost at home to the Bengals and Bucs, They beat the Rams at home(below average team) by a point. They have beaten the 49ers and nothing else and should have 3-4 more losses. Having a great QB gets you wins when you dont deserve it however when the games get bigger the great QBs tend to not be able to carry an entire team.

I find it hysterical how the perception of the Rams this year hinges on Zuelien’s missed FG at the end of the Seattle game. If he makes it, the Rams are a game back of Seattle at 8-4 with a tie breaker over them. They have two bad losses on the year, the Ravens and the Bucs. Are they as good as last year? No. Are they below average? No. They are an above average team that has a decent shot to make the playoffs. If they run the table, they make the playoffs. If they go 3-1 they still have a good shot to make them. Their upcoming games are Dallas, Seattle, San Fran, and Arizona. The only game they should lose is the San Fran game.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I find it hysterical how the perception of the Rams this year hinges on Zuelien’s missed FG at the end of the Seattle game. If he makes it, the Rams are a game back of Seattle at 8-4 with a tie breaker over them. They have two bad losses on the year, the Ravens and the Bucs. Are they as good as last year? No. Are they below average? No. They are an above average team that has a decent shot to make the playoffs. If they run the table, they make the playoffs. If they go 3-1 they still have a good shot to make them. Their upcoming games are Dallas, Seattle, San Fran, and Arizona. The only game they should lose is the San Fran game.

The perception from my POV hinges very little on that miss at the end of the Seattle game.

Their entire body of work and their inability to block any defensive line with a pulse does give me the perception of them I do. They have lost 5 out of their past 9 with their only wins against Atlanta(3-9), Cincy(1-11), Chicago(6-6), and Arizona(3-8-1). They got destroyed by Baltimore and San Francisco. I mean they did beat New Orleans when Brees got hurt but that was their last and only big win this year.

Again, last years Rams would probably go 3-1. This years Rams will struggle against both Dallas and San Francisco. They catch a break in Seattle playing on short rest. Id say 2-2 is the most likely outcome.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Pretty embarasing losses for Jets, Eagles, Carolina

Agreed. The only thing I care about in the NFL right now is some how things breaking such that the Lions ends up with the second overall pick. Sadly, I think the G-Men will gum up the works there.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Agreed. The only thing I care about in the NFL right now is some how things breaking such that the Lions ends up with the second overall pick. Sadly, I think the G-Men will gum up the works there.

Giants need to either take Chase Young, or trade back to acquire picks. Sadly I do not trust Gettleman to do the right thing.

[stevew]

Vikings getting trucked