WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan is correct in saying that the person with the seer should stay quiet today since it is a two-day deal this time around. However, if the seer got a wolf I would think they would come forward today.

I didn't realize the service was a two-day affair this time, so in that case, yes, I agree with this and with Alan's original point regarding the seer coming out. That said, it is frustrating that the seer has not come out following one day purchases. This is key information, IMO, and lends credence to the likelihood that the wolves won this service the first few days.

Which, incidentally, also works against the theory they are hoarding their money.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is a thought that I think makes sense with the Thief. Have someone who wins Friend of Bank suggest a couple of candidates for the Thief based on what they learn about finances - most likely the outliers who have either a ton of money or no money in the bank.

I won Friend of the Bank today.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Why do you think that both Pass and Chief, who you mentioned yesterday, sat back and allowed yesterday to be a tie?

Actually, no one had done a recent vote count I could recall at that point. I just knew it was down to hoops and Jackal, and I didn't like either candidate. The possibility of a tie never even occurred to me when voting.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, looking at the voting chart if you believe that wolves are going to put votes on the leaders, and that they are going to be incented to put votes up there, then what are your relative thoughts on the people who voted for me and Jackal?

Jackal and I voted for each other
You voted for me
That leaves Tyrith (who you have already discussed), MrW, Schmidty, Chief Rum, and Clap.

Or do you think looking at the alternate selections is better? That leaves DT, SnDvls, and Pass.

In your breakdown here, you suggest I voted for you. I thought you were talking about yesterday's (Thursday's) vote, the hoops-Jackal showdown. Am I wrong here? I voted for Tyrith that day because I didn't want to vote for you or The Jackal.

If it's who has voted for across the whole scope of the game, I am on that list of course from voting for you the first two days, but I'm not sure what trying to break that down will do for us, considering we A) have to assume Alan is telling the truth to believe you're good (I do believe him, but just saying it isn't 100%), and B) each vote will have had different parameters and factors related to them which make them hard to analyze against each other. A vote for you on Day One doesn't necessarily have any relation to a vote for you on Day Two (as an example).

I am just "stream of consciousness" posting right now as I catch up, so maybe this is expanded on later, but right now, I am a little confused at your list. Either you're looking at all votes so far in the game (hard to analyze) or you're saying I voted for you in the hoops-Jackal showdown, and that's not true.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?

Do you still want to know?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Pass, if hoops and alan are both bad we just lose. Not having seer scans will have pretty well wrecked us if that's the case. But hoops had every chance to get a kill yesterday, which would have cost us villagers a hundred thousand bucks. I'm highly inclined to trust him at this point. If they screwed us yesterday it was a masterful play, and sometimes you just get outplayed by good players.

Just want to clarify on why you trust hoops again. You're saying he could have killed yesterday. I assume you mean he could have thrown extra money votes at The Jackal? If that's what you're saying, how do you know the Jackal has $100,000?

If you're actually talking about hoops going after you, are you admitting you have $100,000? And why?

Or am I (likely) missing something completely obvious here?

This is a hard game to follow when you disappear for long stretches and try to catch up.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I'd be interested in opinions on chief rum right now.

I would, too.

As for myself, I sorta trust him.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, a couple of responses:

1.) Looks like I misplaced your name on the lists. Sorry about that
2.) Yeah, if Alan is still around for Day 5 I would like to you confirm/refute his financial info

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I won Friend of the Bank today.

Did you already learn what we have in the bank, or does that come later?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Did you already learn what we have in the bank, or does that come later?

Yeah, I already know. BK sent me a PM with everyone's bank totals as of the end of the Day last night.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, is there anything worth discussing in terms of either:
a.) helping MrW select a target
b.) a number that surprises you that should come up now, rather than later, in the event that they wanted to target you with a night action?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, is there anything worth discussing in terms of either:
a.) helping MrW select a target
b.) a number that surprises you that should come up now, rather than later, in the event that they wanted to target you with a night action?

I do have a couple people who would be good targets, but given that Mr.Wednesday himself could be a bribe target tonight, I'm not sure yet if giving out names would actually hurt us.

I'm still looking over what money people could have to see if there are any apparent discrepancies. But I will say this now: several people don't have a cent in the bank (and that doesn't surprise me).

[Alan T]

I haven't really had a full chance to catch up on this thread. Today is one of my daughter's 3rd birthday, so have family in town all weekend. I doubt I'll live through tonight anyways, so not sure if I'm going to spend alot of time to catch up on the thread this weekend. I can just catch up next week.

I'm glad that we did get a wolf, and that makes me feel a bit better about Tyrith and Sndvls based on previous days interactions with Pass. I still am going to put a seer scan order in tonight, I'm leaning towards either scanning Mr.W (to see which side he is on with the thief role), or Chief Rum (really the only one left that I had a bad feeling about now that Pass is gone). There are alot of UtR people though that I don't have much of a thought about currently.

Anyone have any thoughts on whom I should scan tonight? Can't promise I'll be back in time to read any of them though ...

[hoopsguy]

Could take a look at Jackal to see if there was anything going on with the tie vote.

I don't suppose BK is going to tell you order of operations on the scan, but it would be nice to know if you see before/after a bribe attempt.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, not having any money in the bank - unless you know of offers that have been made - doesn't seem like an optimal strategy. Color me surprised that several people are doing this.

Obviously investing in CDs to gain interest has value, but maintaining some liquidity for purchasing services and votes should be an important consideration as well.

[RendeR]

*peers around quietly*

[Mr. Wednesday]

If anybody's going to make suggestions for a theft target, now's the time to do it.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, do you have a record of people who have been casting votes? I had one earlier, but that stuff isn't up to date. I would probably target people who have voted every day that you distrust ... I don't think the bad guys are missing many votes.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't right now, but I'll see if I can get one together.

[Mr. Wednesday]

This is how I make the voting grid to date (each asterisk indicates an additional vote):

Players	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Day 4
1. Lathum	Swaggs	(killed)
2. Pass	Swaggs	SnDvls	Tyrith	Tyrith
3. hoopsguy	Lathum	saldana	The Jackal	Passacaglia
4. path	Swaggs	claphamsa	Tyrith	(killed)
5. Render	Swaggs			Chief Rum
7. Alan T	Swaggs	Chief Rum	hoopsguy	Passacaglia
8. The Jackal	Swaggs	claphamsa	hoopsguy
9. Chief Rum	hoopsguy	hoopsguy	Tyrith	RendeR
10. mauboy	SnDvls	saldana*	(lynched)
11. Schmidty	Swaggs	saldana	hoopsguy	hoopsguy
12. claphamsa	The Jackal	mauboy	The Jackal	Chief Rum
13. SnDvls	mauboy	mauboy	The Jackal	The Jackal
14. Mr. Wednesday	Swaggs	Chief Rum	The Jackal	Chief Rum
15. Swaggs		(lynched)
16. DaddyTorgo		mauboy	Chief Rum	Passacaglia
17. saldana	Swaggs	mauboy	(killed)
18. Tyrith	Swaggs	mauboy	hoopsguy	Passacaglia

[Mr. Wednesday]

Things that make you say "hmm"... with a ready candidate for bankrupting, why did Passacaglia transfer his money (and then dummy vote) instead of tossing a couple of extra votes onto Chief Rum?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I just had another thought... we haven't been talking about the financial analyst at all. I don't necessarily want the person who has it (if non-cutthroat) to reveal, but maybe there would be someone that they should take a look at...

[hoopsguy]

MrW, I was surprised at the relatively low price tag to acquire the Financial Analyst role. And I think that person, if they have not already submitted their order, should look at the same candidates we've been recommending for you and Alan.

[Barkeep49]

It's so nice to pick up the morning paper and not see any of that nasty business about people dying splattered across the front pages. You'd think the police would have figured out by now that there is a serial killer out there, but they seem just as incompetent as you'd always thought. Still it's nice to know a friend of yours didn't get killed last night.

Today you may bid on:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Bodyguard Firm: May choose a player to be protected from attacks on two consecutive nights (may not be the same player). Must be used Nights 5 and 6.
Hitman: Winning player may choose another player to be killed. Must be used Night 5.
Lawyer: May learn the beneficiary of 2 players. Must be used Night 5.

Please remember that you may vote during any cycle to end the game by voting End Game. You may also rescind this. If during any cycle, day or night, 60% of the players vote to end the game, the game is ended immediately during the day and before any night actions are processed if at night. Players do not receive their voting money until the end of the day.

[hoopsguy]

Well, since there was no bodyguard action available last night I think that pretty much cinches that there was a conversion.

Also, I'm hoping that we can assume from this that there have not been previous conversions, since up to this point we have had a kill every night.

I'll hang back and see what other people have to bring to the table today. I don't have any new information to present by virtue of actions last night. But several people should have something to say:
Alan (Seer):
MrW (Thief):
??? (FOB, potentially):

[Tyrith]

Financial analyst on The Jackal came up with 78k total.

[hoopsguy]

OK, then lets start running the numbers on Jackal:

Start with 30K, 3 votes = 45K
Some level of interest could account for the other 3K

Assuming he did not win any services, do anything funky with beneficiaries, or wasn't the target of the Thief last night, and that number sounds about right for him.

Anyone have thoughts on the Jackal's money that I haven't covered in this post?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Things that make you say "hmm"... with a ready candidate for bankrupting, why did Passacaglia transfer his money (and then dummy vote) instead of tossing a couple of extra votes onto Chief Rum?

wow...nice catch Mr. W

that has me ready to vote Chief Rum and I don't think there's much anyone can say to dissuade me.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, then lets start running the numbers on Jackal:

Start with 30K, 3 votes = 45K
Some level of interest could account for the other 3K

Assuming he did not win any services, do anything funky with beneficiaries, or wasn't the target of the Thief last night, and that number sounds about right for him.

Anyone have thoughts on the Jackal's money that I haven't covered in this post?

nope. That sounds correct. i'm too lazy to figure out how much $$ he'd need to put into how long a CD to get 3k, but whatever

[hoopsguy]

We also can consider the "end game" strategy today.

Wolves lost one and gained one, by all appearances.

Game started with 18, we are down to 11. Among the dead:
Rich - Lathum, Path, Mauboy, Swaggs, Saldana
Cutthroats - Pass
??? - Arles (BK, are you willing to indicate his faction?)

[hoopsguy]

Following up on this logic, these players remain in the game, with notes on money deviations:

Hoopsguy - beneficiary of Lathum D1
Render - missed a pair of votes
Alan T - undisputed claims for two services
Jackal - per Tyrith, has 78K in assets. Also missed a vote
Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?)
Schmidty - not a money observation, but I believe he should stop voting for me
Clap - has suggested he failed to obtain services first three days (can find post if needed)
SnDvls -
MrW - undisputed claim for purchasing Thief
Torgo -
Tyrith - claims to have purchased Financial Advisor yesterday

[Barkeep49]

Arles was Rich

[Tyrith]

Oh, and that 78k doesn't include interest from any CDs he currently holds.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, do you see anything that you can take from that scan that indicates Jackal is a Cutthroat?

My read is that is entirely consistent with a villager who has missed a vote and played a passive game. Unless someone can come up with a more sinister interpretation he is trusted by me, for today at least.

[hoopsguy]

Have a couple of updates for the money post, additions in bold:

Hoopsguy - beneficiary of Lathum D1
Render - missed a pair of votes
Alan T - undisputed claims for two services
Jackal - per Tyrith, has 78K in assets. Also missed a vote
Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?)
Schmidty - not a money observation, but I believe he should stop voting for me
Clap - has suggested he failed to obtain services first three days (can find post if needed)
SnDvls -
MrW - undisputed claim for purchasing Thief, inherited money from Saldana on Day 2.
Torgo -
Tyrith - claims to have purchased Financial Advisor yesterday

Wolf Pass inherited money from Pass on Day 3.

[hoopsguy]

Er, wolf pass inherited money from Path on Day 3.

Given the increasing amounts of money accumulated by successful votes, the total amount of money inherited by Pass is likely equal or greater than the combined amount that MrW and I inherited since Lathum appears to have purchased a service before being killed.

Given that Arles was another member of the Rich, that basically negates the advantage we had with a no lynch on Day 3. So we've given up 7 of our members for one of theirs.

Finally, some of the larger acquisitions of services are by people who are assumed to have begun the game as members of the Rich.

In short, I'm not all that confident about a showdown today. I think we would win it if everyone started with 30K and there were three wolves to start, but if you nudge up either their starting numbers or their starting dollars then I feel less confident. Probably makes sense to take out another wolf if we can today, but I'm all for debate on this point.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm all for voting for chief rum!

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm straight rich hoopy

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

and that's based on MrW's chart.

Seems like one of those situations where the wolves maybe slipped, but i'll wait a while to actually cast that vote since "revoting" essentially costs 20k (to nullify the effect of your first vote)

[hoopsguy]

Yeah, I think it makes sense to see where everyone comes in with their check-in/information posts before making a move.

I'm not as sold on the Chief Rum vote quite yet. In theory, Pass could have put the vote on anyone at the end if he was going to bluff/vote someone. He could be trying to get us to go after Rum or to ignore Rum, depending on what type of move he was making at the time.

Heck, that is the kind of stuff I like to do on the way out as a wolf - create a scenario where you are guessing whether I'm giving you something easy or just bluffing at it. I do find it interesting that he didn't save himself, but I'm not as interested about not "saving himself" versus "Player X" since the wolves should have had enough cash to lynch pretty much anyone they wanted if they were looking to snipe the vote yesterday. I think Pass was just hoping to siphon cash and Tyrith had already anticipated that in the thread.

[Alan T]

My sister's family left to head home, so since I have a Seer result in my inbox, I'll assume that I need to try to catch up to this thread.

I don't know if it is still applicable, but yesterday I was torn between scanning Chief Rum and Mr.Wednesday. In the end I went with Mr.W with the rationale that clearing or damning Chief would only tell us information about him. Clearing or damning Mr.W would help us with any information that he provided about anyone else.

So I was told that the Private investigator could not find any evidence of Mr.W being a cutthroat. Now I'm going to try to catch up on the thread.

[The Jackal]

I'm tempted to vote end game here. I'm not sure how much we think everyone has across the board, but I haven't spent anything, and I bet the cutthroats have been bidding hard on a few of the services.

Honestly I have no idea who the cutthroats might be. It's kind of hard to gauge how they would be playing. My votes have all been to accrue more money, and that's been about it.

[hoopsguy]

OK, starting to work through some pros/cons on votes for today, factoring in money and info from last night

Hoopsguy - beneficiary of Lathum D1, cleared by AlanT on Night 3
Render - missed a pair of votes
Alan T - undisputed claims for two services, cleared Hoopsguy on Night 3 and Mr Wednesday on Night 4
Jackal - per Tyrith, has 78K in assets. Also missed a vote
Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?), issuing early votes makes it hard to assign value to his voting record
Schmidty - not a money observation, but I believe he should stop voting for me
Clap - has suggested he failed to obtain services first three days (can find post if needed). Voted for wrong guy yesterday
SnDvls - added 6th candidate to vote yesterday, was concerned about run on Pass
MrW - undisputed claim for purchasing Thief, inherited money from Saldana on Day 2. Cleared by Alan Night 4
Torgo - had hanging vote on Pass yesterday
Tyrith - claims to have purchased Financial Advisor yesterday, had right vote yesterday

Knee-jerk reaction, I want to take a harder look at SnDvls and Clap at this stage of the game.

[hoopsguy]

Jackal, let me try and mock up the numbers if the wolves started with 30K each and have only secured one service (the no-bankrupcy). I'm also going to work with the assumption that they haven't received any money on night kills and that they converted someone who had voted every day to get maximum money.

[hoopsguy]

Please feel free to jump in if I'm using bad math.

Wolf #1: 30K starting - 25K for bankrupcy + 4*15K for votes = 65K
Wolf #2: 30K starting + 4*15K for votes = 90K
Wolf #3 (Pass): 30K starting + 3*15K (died on Day 4) + Path's money (30K + 3*15K) = 150K
Wolf Convert: 30K starting + 4*15K = 90K

Using these numbers, with no basis for whether they are high or low, gives the wolves roughly 400K. Keep in mind, this assumes one convert (think this is a safe assumption) and assumes they did not convert Alan since he has depleted funds (risky, since he had a seer scan).

Villagers:
Render: 30K + 2 votes = 60K
Jackal: 78K per Tyrith
Alan: 30K
Hoops: hmm, not sure I want to indicate my cash here
DT: 90K (assuming good based on hanging vote yesterday)
MrW: 30K + 4 votes = 90K - 40K (Thief) = 50K + Saldana's cash (60K) = 110K
Last villager = 90K

Villager total, minus my cash = 460K

I've got enough to push our margin over the wolves up over 100K, but if there were four starting wolves then this gets really close.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

??? (FOB, potentially):

I won FOB and I got my information Friday night. I didn't expect to get anything more today (and I didn't).

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Please feel free to jump in if I'm using bad math.

Wolf #1: 30K starting - 25K for bankrupcy + 4*15K for votes = 65K
Wolf #2: 30K starting + 4*15K for votes = 90K
Wolf #3 (Pass): 30K starting + 3*15K (died on Day 4) + Path's money (30K + 3*15K) = 150K
Wolf Convert: 30K starting + 4*15K = 90K

Using these numbers, with no basis for whether they are high or low, gives the wolves roughly 400K. Keep in mind, this assumes one convert (think this is a safe assumption) and assumes they did not convert Alan since he has depleted funds (risky, since he had a seer scan).

Villagers:
Render: 30K + 2 votes = 60K
Jackal: 78K per Tyrith
Alan: 30K
Hoops: hmm, not sure I want to indicate my cash here
DT: 90K (assuming good based on hanging vote yesterday)
MrW: 30K + 4 votes = 90K - 40K (Thief) = 50K + Saldana's cash (60K) = 110K
Last villager = 90K

Villager total, minus my cash = 460K

I've got enough to push our margin over the wolves up over 100K, but if there were four starting wolves then this gets really close.

does that take into account services people won?

if you have enough to push it up over 100k then we have 100k+ more than the wolves and we ought to take a shot, because that's the $$ that one person could have.

however we don't KNOW that the wolves only started out with 30k. But if yours pushes it up over 100k then i'm comfortable going for it, based on what I know.

I dunno...hmmm

[hoopsguy]

Upon further review, I'm missing another villager in that list. So you can probably assign another 90K, give or take, to the villager side.

I think there are probably two original wolves between the group of SnDvls, Clap, Chief Rum, and Schmidty. And if the wolves were making a money play for last night's bribe then these four are among the best candidates out there in terms of voting records and lack of disclosed big-money services.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

wow...nice catch Mr. W

that has me ready to vote Chief Rum and I don't think there's much anyone can say to dissuade me.

My guess would be twofold: A) we're at the point where we can vote to end the game, and if he can move his money away, it does the wolves more good to keep that money in the fold with them than to keep himself alive for another day; and B) for exactly what you're doing--put suspicion on a villager and get you guys to bankrupt me while the wolves live another day.

Think about it--why would a wolf in trouble even mention another wolf, in any context?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?)

I purchased the BG on Day Three (and said that at the time). I purchased FOB on Day 4.