Official 2023 College Football Thread

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Well there should be a riot somewhere if an undefeated FSU doesn't make it

FWIW, I'm on the record for putting them in if they win tonight. Absolutely if they win with the #3 QB, almost certainly if they win with their #2.

But that SoS is ... problematic. It's tough scheduling luck, they can't control that Clemson, Florida, LSU, and Miami were all irrelevant this season. Nor that winning the title game makes an already weak looking opponent look even worse.

But I in no way consider the ACC a "power conference" in its current condition. I didn't when the season started, damned sure nothing has happened during the season to change that. That dents the value of the undefeated mark.

[Atocep]

Michigan kicks a field goal to clinch the Big 10 title.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm fine with Texas and Bama jumping an undefeated FSU.

[GrantDawg]

This is not going to help their playoff argument:

FSU had 5 yards in total offense in 1st QT.

5.

— John Fricke (@JohnFricke) December 3, 2023

[sovereignstar v2]

.

[sovereignstar v2]

Here is Iowa's chance to pounce and kick a field goal

[GrantDawg]

I made a list of teams I'd take in the CFP over Florida State:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. Anybody from the warehouse
6. Lord Voldemort

Anyways, happy birthday, Peter Warrick.

— Brennen Rupp (@Brennen_Rupp) December 3, 2023

[Edward64]

Something tells me there's going to be some controversy in the final 4 slots.

[sovereignstar v2]

Butt-clenching time in Charlotte

[RainMaker]

Florida State's defense is unreal.

[cuervo72]

I mean, I kind of want FSU to win because eff the SEC, but holy mother of pearl I can't stand four hours of that fucking chant.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Florida State's defense is unreal.

Or is facing a low-ceiling QB helping them look better?

[SirFozzie]

Jon: Am I right in assuming the SEC will announce the "Second War of Northern Aggression" if the CFP locks them out, as it looks like may happen?

Of course, the Aggression in this point isn't slav.. er.. it's about SEC fans believing they have a divine right to CFP playoff spots...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Jon: Am I right in assuming the SEC will announce the "Second War of Northern Aggression" if the CFP locks them out, as it looks like may happen?

Eh, most of the fanbases aren't likely to be tooooo upset about it best I can figure.

I've heard nor seen nary a peep today/tonight from any of the multitude of Auburn or Tennessee people I know.

They'll grouse come playoff time perhaps, simply bored by the prospect of watching uninspiring teams, but in the moment I don't sense much concern beyond the two immediately affected fanbases.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Or is facing a low-ceiling QB helping them look better?

Their defensive line was obliterating Louisville. That one DE is one of the best I've seen this year.

I don't think Louosville's offense is good but that's still an i.pressove performance.

[RainMaker]

I don't think there is any chance they leave Alabama out considering how much ESPN has invested in the SEC. The decision would be tougher if Travis didn't break his leg though.

The 4 best teams in the country at the moment are Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas but I didn't set up this dumb system.

[bronconick]

It's never been about the "best" 4 teams, though they misspeak that every week. They inevitably rank the "most deserving/best resume".

[Brian Swartz]

They don't though. Sometimes it's best. Sometimes it's resume/deserving. Sometimes it's 'let's overrank this team to make others in their conference look better'. Sometimes it appears to be 'we just felt like it'.

As I've said before, this isn't just to crap on the committee - there is no possible ranking which wouldn't make a lot of people mad. I'm looking forward to seeing what they do, because it's a no-win situation for them like never before IMO. But when people say 'I know who the best four teams are and it's these' in this kind of a situation, my response is 'balderdash. You know no such thing'. I think there are 6-7 teams that can make a good argument, depending on what your basis is.

[bob]

4 conference champs, 3 undefeated, and the fourth beat the other conference champ.

The fact that we have a head to head between the two non-undefeated P5 champs should make this really easy.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just a side note from the official guidelines for the committee

With regard to head to head, conference championships, and strength of schedule ...

We would expect this same set of principles to be applied, particularly at the margins (teams 10‐11‐12).

[JonInMiddleGA]

And after reading both the guidelines and the voting procedure again, I believe I know how it'll end up. It's the combination that gave me my a-ha moment.

First step is for each member to submit 30 teams that they feel are "the best in the country, in no particular order". Next, any team that gets at least 3 (out of 13 possible) votes stays on the list for consideration. Then they'll each submit again "the 6 best teams" from that list, again in no particular order.

Then we get to the part that has given my my best guess of the outcome

"In the first ranking step, each member will rank those six teams, one through six, with one being the best. The best team in each member’s ranking will receive one point; second‐best, two points, etc. The members’ rankings will be added together and the three teams receiving the fewest points will become the top three seeds. The three teams that were not seeded will be held over for the next ranking step."

In other words, they'll pick three from six ... then add three to the holdovers and pick three more ...

I expect the first round of six to be, in no particular order:
Michigan, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, FSU

I expect the first three chosen to be
1) Michigan 2) Washington 3) Texas

The only head to head games there involve Alabama, who had a win & a loss.
Doesn't really matter who they add to the second round, because I believe they'll then rank as follows

4) Alabama 5) Georgia 6)FSU

My reasoning? The guidelines, which I'll link below in the comments, talk about considering factors such as head to head competition, conference championships, and strength of schedule particularly within groups of similar teams. I believe they'll use h2h to put Texas at #3.

And that they'll then use h2h to rank Alabama 4th, giving them the h2h advantage over Georgia and the massive SoS difference the edge over FSU. Same SoS makes Georgia the 5th ahead of FSU.

I'm not saying that is or isn't what I'd do ... I'm just talking about the process and what I think it'll lead to.

[JPhillips]

Where is the portal?? #4 got that Dawg in him! �� Wow…

pic.twitter.com/6W43B4JNfJ

— Bobby (@BobbyWilson1004) December 3, 2023

[dubb93]

I’m with you on the logic, Jon, but it falls apart for me when Texas would have to jump from 7 to 3 and FSU fall from 3 to 6 when FSU beat the higher ranked team in their championship game. Your logic works if you ignore the existing rankings, and maybe they do, but they will take a beating for it if that is their logic.

[bob]

I was listening to the radio this morning and the entire conversation was that Michigan, Wash, and FSU were in and they were 95% sure Alabama gets in over Texas.

[Ksyrup]

All I know is, I'm glad I didn't watch, turned on Forensic Files, and fell asleep at some point around 10pm. As I get older, I have learned to stop doing things that make me unhappy and unnecessarily stressed out and watching what sounds like a car wreck of a game would have been exactly that. I also have little hope FSU makes the playoff, but if they do, great. If not, I still avoided a 4 hour unpleasant experience.

I will say, the SECs best non-conference win was UK over... Louisville, a team FSU beat with a 3rd string QB. The ACC had a winning record against the SEC this year. I don't know why, other than TV contracts and ratings, the SEC has to get in this year.

I also see that Michigan, with it's QB1 against a lower ranked opponent than FSU played, put up less yardage than FSU with a true freshman QB.

But I'm fairly convinced they get left out because this is the last year of the 4 team playoff so they aren't setting bad precedent by screwing over FSU. Starting next year, it's simply a seeding issue in the playoff. I hope I'm wrong but I don't feel good about it at all.

[PilotMan]

NDSU won their road playoff game against Montana St on a blocked extra point in OT. The MSU kicker had missed 2 FG's in the game earlier and the loss snapped the longest home win streak in the nation at 26 games.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The ACC had a winning record against the SEC this year.

Yeah, that Wake Forest win over Vanderbilt back in September is the deciding game, and should put the matter to rest.

The good news is that this is the last year of this train wreck. There will be outrage over whoever gets left out in the top six. Next year it will be a moot point, as all of them would be in. You would have, at most, a minor squabble among Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Penn State fans that would barely register outside of their respective fan bases. Hell, with the dismantling of the Pac-12, even Liberty and SMU would get berths, so you wouldn't have to listen to the poor old "UCF" argument from years ago. Liberty would be then be able to go to Athens, GA and get obliterated in the first round.

[sovereignstar v2]

I can understand tempering expectations, but I still think FSU are nearly a lock

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

NDSU won their road playoff game against Montana St on a blocked extra point in OT. The MSU kicker had missed 2 FG's in the game earlier and the loss snapped the longest home win streak in the nation at 26 games.

Woohoo NDSU! Did I see correctly that its South Dakota State in the Finals?

[PilotMan]

No finals yet, I think we're up to the quarter finals this week.

SDSU is still super odds on favorites to win it all. They just blow everyone out.

We need to beat USD on the road this week, and that's a team we lost to in the regular season.

[sovereignstar v2]

SDSU have turned the tables on the Bison. They look unbeatable like NDSU did in year's past. Entz has supervised the end of that dynasty.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I’m with you on the logic, Jon, but it falls apart for me when Texas would have to jump from 7 to 3 and FSU fall from 3 to 6 when FSU beat the higher ranked team in their championship game. Your logic works if you ignore the existing rankings, and maybe they do, but they will take a beating for it if that is their logic.

FWIW, AP poll just released with Texas moving from 7 to 3.
FSU held steady at 4.

Last week the first 13 spots in the CFP rankings & the AP poll were identical.

One other interesting change in the AP worth watching (tho I don't believe it'll happen in the CFP): SMU jumped over Liberty after beating Tulane, moving 25 --> 17 while Liberty only moved 20 --> 18

[Ksyrup]

Being vindicated never felt so bad.

[sovereignstar v2]

Fucking dumb

[Ksyrup]

Moving beyond wins and losses as the primary factor was always dumb, at least in comparing P5 teams. It's like tiers. No losses is its own tier and should never be compared to 1 loss teams. Why are we fucking playing the games if a loss doesn't matter?

[Ksyrup]

Also - I blame Auburn.

[Ghost Econ]

This kinda shows that they don't really think the ACC is a top league. Everyone in the playoffs are big 10/sec next year. The powers that be clearly see this as a 2 league FBS from here on out.

[sovereignstar v2]

The cheaters vs the team that had no business being in. How intriguing

[dubb93]

Well...they better give FSU someone in a bowl game that they can't beat or it's going to be really awkward. If I was FSU and won my bowl game I'd hang a banner. There was literally nothing else they could have done. They might as well have not even played football this season. They had no chance from the start.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Moving beyond wins and losses as the primary factor was always dumb, at least in comparing P5 teams. It's like tiers. No losses is its own tier and should never be compared to 1 loss teams. Why are we fucking playing the games if a loss doesn't matter?

FSU is probably the 3 seed if Travis is healthy. If the Travis injury was being used as a tie breaker I'd be ok with that, but this selection is entirely because he got hurt. SoS or anything else has absolutely nothing do with it because we wouldn't be having this discussion if he played last night.

[Ksyrup]

Also, FSU is not the same without its QB but FSU had 7 fewer passing yards in the last 3 games than Michigan.

My daughter is bawling her eyes out. Feel so bad for her. She's taken my fandom and run with it the past 5-6 years like only a teenager can. I saw this coming a mile away. When Auburn blew Alabama's second loss, it opened this door.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Well...they better give FSU someone in a bowl game that they can't beat or it's going to be really awkward. If I was FSU and won my bowl game I'd hang a banner. There was literally nothing else they could have done. They might as well have not even played football this season. They had no chance from the start.

We'll see who actually plays. I expect half our defense to declare and not suit up. I think it would be UGA in Orange? I'm flying so I have no idea.

[Ghost Econ]

The amusing thing is, 8f Georgia had won FSU would have still missed the playoffs.

[dubb93]

It kills me that ksyrup is actually right. FSU has so many potential pros that probably won’t play. That makes it even more silly I was looking at a mock draft of the first couple rounds and I think FSU had like 6 players in there (none were the hurt QB.) Also, even FSU’s third string QB is a projected future pro….and they have continued to beat teams, even teams ranked higher than other teams that leaped them, without said QB.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

This kinda shows that they don't really think the ACC is a top league. Everyone in the playoffs are big 10/sec next year. The powers that be clearly see this as a 2 league FBS from here on out.

In its current state, the ACC not a Power anything conference.

It might theoretically get back to a meaningful 3rd or 4th spot, but in 2023 there just really wasn't much there.

Sagarin (I know, I know, it's not perfect ... but it's an easy to find metric) shows the gap between the Big 10 East and the ACC as the same as the gap between the ACC and the Sun Belt East.

The closest parallel? The Big 10 West.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by dubb93

It kills me that ksyrup is actually right. FSU has so many potential pros that probably won’t play. That makes it even more silly I was looking at a mock draft of the first couple rounds and I think FSU had like 6 players in there (none were the hurt QB.) Also, even FSU’s third string QB is a projected future pro….and they have continued to beat teams, even teams ranked higher than other teams that leaped them, without said QB.

Even better - our best DL transfer, Darrell Jackson from Miami who transferred to be closer to his sick mom, was declared ineligible until now. He was rated better than Fiske! He would have been added to this roster for the playoff game.

[Ksyrup]

I texted my daughter Go Broncos to get her mind off college and onto the NFL and like a 60-something college graduate and lifelong donor she texted back, "It's just not the same, man."

[RainMaker]

Sagarin also shows that Michigan and Florida State had a nearly identical strength if schedule this year.

[Edward64]

Nice!

College Football Playoff will feature Michigan v. Alabama and Washington v. Texas, while undefeated Florida State is left out

[sovereignstar v2]

Nice what?