2009 MLB Regular Season Thread

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well, I'd say that either Thome is incorrect, or Pedro Martinez had something else (control?) that makes him vastly superior to Greinke.

I can't agree with the control part. Watch a Greinke game and count the number of pitches where the catcher moves the glove from the target position. You probably won't need more than the 10 fingers you have to count up the target misses. If Greinke walks a guy, it's usually because he was trying to pitch around a guy and not because he was wild.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Nine starts dude, not seven years.

Page not found » Joe Posnanski

Dating back to last year, Greinke has won nine consecutive starts, and in those nine starts he has an 0.69 ERA. How good is that? Well, legendary. There have been 50 pitchers since 1954 who have won nine or more consecutive starts. Greinke’s is the second-best.

He's the next Cal Eldred.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

No. Greinke is going to have to show me he can come close to Pedro's dominant peak before you can even put them in the same sentance. Pedro Martinez is like Walter Johnson, you don't throw around the comparisons that easily.

I'm sure I've said that before, but there has been no other pitcher in history as dominant at his peak as Pedro was in his 7 year span.



Well, I'd say that either Thome is incorrect, or Pedro Martinez had something else (control?) that makes him vastly superior to Greinke.

You think Pedro was more dominant than Walter Johnson?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Travis

Dola, obviously we all have our own opinions on how big of a sample size should be involved before those sorts of comparisons start getting made, but whether it's the interpretation of the time period involved that I'm reading as the biggest issue here and I'd bet Thome is talking about a much smaller sample size (ie: right here, right now) than what you're looking at ISiddiqui.

I can get that... but I think you hit it on the head, that I think this sample size is waaay too small to start comparing to one of the greatest pitchers of All Time.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

You think Pedro was more dominant than Walter Johnson?

At his peak? Oh yes. From 1997 to 2003 (7 years), Martinez has FIVE season of over 200 ERA+. One season (2001), he was injured and only threw 116 innings so he had an ERA+ of 189. 1998 was his down season during that run, with the ERA+ of 163.

Over the 7 years, Pedro Martinez had an ERA+ of 213, with a .766 winning percentage (with 199 starts), a WHIP of 0.940, A K/9 of 11.3 and a K/BB of 5.59.

Johnson's best 8 year period (5 200+ ERA+ seasons - I added one more year to get another 200+ ERA+ season for Johnson) falls short (1912-19), ERA+ of 185, winning percentage of .655 in 282 starts, WHIP of 0.938, K/9 of 5.6 and a K/BB of 3.30.

[larrymcg421]

I don't think someone has to go on a 7 year run like Pedro's before it makes sense to start the comparisons, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the guy to finish at least one season at that level before you compare them.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I don't think someone has to go on a 7 year run like Pedro's before it makes sense to start the comparisons, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the guy to finish at least one season at that level before you compare them.

Greinke's start this season is the equivalent of peak Pedro performance. What is wrong with saying that?

[miked]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Greinke's start this season is the equivalent of peak Pedro performance. What is wrong with saying that?

What do you people have against sample size...he's your friend! Seven starts vs. several seasons...come on people.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Greinke's start this season is the equivalent of peak Pedro performance. What is wrong with saying that?

Because that's not what was said at all. The comment that started all of this was Thome saying Greinke is just as good as Pedro in his prime. And the counter is that it's ridiculous to claim someone is as good as Pedro because of a 9 game stretch.

And even if we go with your comment, the problem is that the sample size is too small to be very meaningful. I mean, you could just as easily say that Greinke isn't as good as Orel Hershiser was in his prime, since Hershiser had a longer scoreless streak.

Jordan Schafer homered in his first career at bat this year. At that point he was playing much better than Babe Ruth in his prime.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by miked

What do you people have against sample size...he's your friend! Seven starts vs. several seasons...come on people.

I am saying Greinke's last seven starts have been pretty fucking special. What do you have against facts? Or are you just arguing for the sake of it?

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

At his peak? Oh yes. From 1997 to 2003 (7 years), Martinez has FIVE season of over 200 ERA+. One season (2001), he was injured and only threw 116 innings so he had an ERA+ of 189. 1998 was his down season during that run, with the ERA+ of 163.

Over the 7 years, Pedro Martinez had an ERA+ of 213, with a .766 winning percentage (with 199 starts), a WHIP of 0.940, A K/9 of 11.3 and a K/BB of 5.59.

Johnson's best 8 year period (5 200+ ERA+ seasons - I added one more year to get another 200+ ERA+ season for Johnson) falls short (1912-19), ERA+ of 185, winning percentage of .655 in 282 starts, WHIP of 0.938, K/9 of 5.6 and a K/BB of 3.30.

I don't really see how you can even compare.

[Travis]

This is where semantics come in. If Thome was saying that Greinke, right now, was pitching like Pedro in his prime, then it's hard to argue that. If he was trying to convince you that he's going to keep this up and do it for 2-3 years, then yeah, it's a lot easier to argue against.

Again, we all have our own personal scale on when we'd consider it long enough to compare guys, but a lot of people fall into the trap of making player comparisons when a guy is on the sort of streak Greinke is. Doesn't mean it's any less valid, and trying to compare that to one AB for a positional player is going over the top the other way. It's not like we're talking 1-2 starts for Greinke, he's had a tremendous start to the season (building off a pretty nice finish to last year) and until he falters, the attention and comparisons are just going to grow.

I don't think anybody has made the argument that he has a better career or prolonged peak period than Pedro, just that he's at that level right now.

And no matter if you agree with that or not, I think his performances so far are something we should all just sit back and appreciate. I've been spoiled watching a lot of Doc Halladay starts and pitching as dominant as Greinke is doing right now is just fun to watch.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

I am saying Greinke's last seven starts have been pretty fucking special. What do you have against facts? Or are you just arguing for the sake of it?

But no one disagrees with that statement. It is pretty fucking special. We disagree with "Greinke is as good as Pedro in his prime". That is a ridiculous statement.

[lordscarlet]

Dola:

in addition, over that period Johnson averaged 9.75 innings per start, Martinez 7.02 innings per start.

Johnson had 253 complete games, Martinez 34.

60 shutouts for Johnson, 11 for Pedro.

We're just not dealing with equal footing here.

[molson]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

I don't really see how you can even compare.

The question was whether he was more "dominating", which implies a comparison to his peers. Obviously, back in Johnson's day, pitchers pitched way more often than every 5th day. But that wasn't just Johnson, that was everybody, so it doesn't really say anything to his "domination" of the league.

[molson]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Dola:

in addition, over that period Johnson averaged 9.75 innings per start, Martinez 7.02 innings per start.

Johnson had 253 complete games, Martinez 34.

60 shutouts for Johnson, 11 for Pedro.

We're just not dealing with equal footing here.

You have to compare Johnson relative to his peers v. Pedro relative to his peers. ERA+ is a decent tool to do that.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

But no one disagrees with that statement. It is pretty fucking special. We disagree with "Greinke is as good as Pedro in his prime". That is a ridiculous statement.

Okay, and I mean this in all seriousness, how long would he have to pitch at the level he's at right now for you to consider the comparison valid?

Keep in mind that I'm not saying that we'd be saying that Greinke's stat line for 7 years falls in line with Pedro's, but just that you'd consider the comparison to be acceptable (as I'm assuming that the comparison would be valid before the body of work is as close to identical as possible).

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Because that's not what was said at all. The comment that started all of this was Thome saying Greinke is just as good as Pedro in his prime. And the counter is that it's ridiculous to claim someone is as good as Pedro because of a 9 game stretch.

And even if we go with your comment, the problem is that the sample size is too small to be very meaningful. I mean, you could just as easily say that Greinke isn't as good as Orel Hershiser was in his prime, since Hershiser had a longer scoreless streak.

Jordan Schafer homered in his first career at bat this year. At that point he was playing much better than Babe Ruth in his prime.

You, me and everyone else is fully aware that Greinke's only been doing it for however number of starts and not however many years. Duly noted. Doesn't change how awesome he is pitching or how wonderful it is to watch.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

But no one disagrees with that statement. It is pretty fucking special. We disagree with "Greinke is as good as Pedro in his prime". That is a ridiculous statement.

Have you seen Greinke pitch this season (not counting highlights)? If not, I don't think you're qualified to judge.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by molson

You have to compare Johnson relative to his peers v. Pedro relative to his peers. ERA+ is a decent tool to do that.

Doesn't ERA+ compare to the ballpark, not your peers?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Travis

Okay, and I mean this in all seriousness, how long would he have to pitch at the level he's at right now for you to consider the comparison valid?

Keep in mind that I'm not saying that we'd be saying that Greinke's stat line for 7 years falls in line with Pedro's, but just that you'd consider the comparison to be acceptable (as I'm assuming that the comparison would be valid before the body of work is as close to identical as possible).

I've already said earlier that if he finishes just one season at Pedro's peak level, then start the comparisons.

Let's not forget that when Valenzuela started 8-0 with an ERA of 0.50, he still only finished the year with an ERA+ of 135.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

I don't really see how you can even compare.

A) what molson said - dominating means a comparison to peers

B) as I said, I added one more season to Johnson so I could get him another 200+ ERA+ season (otherwise would have been less)

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Doesn't ERA+ compare to the ballpark, not your peers?

Bzzzt... ERA+ compares to ballpark and era effects. It is supposed to be a normalized statistic, which is why it is good to compare players from different eras.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

You, me and everyone else is fully aware that Greinke's only been doing it for however number of starts and not however many years. Duly noted. Doesn't change how awesome he is pitching or how wonderful it is to watch.

On a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you enjoy taking part in an argument that is completely unrelated to what everyone else in this thread is arguing?

[molson]

Originally Posted by Logan

On a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you enjoy taking part in an argument that is completely unrelated to what everyone else in this thread is arguing?

I'm going to play devil's advocate, just so there's an actual debate here.

I don't think Greinke's awesome, and I don't think his pitching is wonderful to watch.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I've already said earlier that if he finishes just one season at Pedro's peak level, then start the comparisons.

Let's not forget that when Valenzuela started 8-0 with an ERA of 0.50, he still only finished the year with an ERA+ of 135.

Sounds good. I suppose a part of it is your implication with the comparison. I feel pretty comfortable hearing that Greinke is having a Pedro like stretch right now. If he does it for an entire season then I'd be bumping up the comparison a notch in seriousness (ie: would you consider him the next Pedro at that point rather than just a guy who has had a dominant stretch or two, etc).

Obviously there have been a lot of guys in the past that have had great stretches and not been able to keep it up, doesn't mean for that stretch that they weren't as filthy/dominant as the bigger names were (who were just able to do it over much longer periods of time). Doesn't (to me) make those comparisons any less valid for the time periods they're referring to.

That said, I hope he keeps it up. I think having a guy like that setting the pace right now provides some motivation for Halladay (I get the impression that not only does Doc want to give the Jays a chance to win every time he takes the mound, but he likes to be doing it in a fashion that very few others are able to achieve). The more he hears about how well Greinke is pitching is likely to drive him to be that much better.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm going to play devil's advocate, just so there's an actual debate here.

I don't think Greinke's awesome, and I don't think his pitching is wonderful to watch.

In that case, do you prefer to watch knuckleballers or do you wish David Wells was still pitching?

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

A) what molson said - dominating means a comparison to peers

B) as I said, I added one more season to Johnson so I could get him another 200+ ERA+ season (otherwise would have been less)

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Bzzzt... ERA+ compares to ballpark and era effects. It is supposed to be a normalized statistic, which is why it is good to compare players from different eras.

I think that can only go so far, though, personally. You can easily compare to peers -- but when you start using derived statistics in an attempt to compare eras, it just gets dicey, IMO. Johnson had the most career shutouts in baseball, the most wins AND losses in 1-0 games, 3 shutouts in 3 days.

I really just stick to my original statement, which is that it is very hard to compare. Bringing out things like ERA+ for guys that pitched 6+ decades apart is really just a statistician's wet dream. I really don't know which is better, but the things Johnson did just will never happen again. A pitcher like Pedro won't even be given a chance to do the things that pitchers did back then. I think they were both the most dominant pitchers of their time during their peeks, and that's the most you can say.

[lordscarlet]

Oh, and we're all forgetting the guy that will overshadow all of these other guys.. Stephen Strasburg! :P

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Oh, and we're all forgetting the guy that will overshadow all of these other guys.. Stephen Strasburg! :P

Jim Thome says he's better the Walter Johnson.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Have you seen Greinke pitch this season (not counting highlights)? If not, I don't think you're qualified to judge.

No, but my real life name is Paul Konerko and I've faced Greinke more times than any other hitter, including Jim Thome, and that means you can't argue with anything I say.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Jim Thome says he's better the Walter Johnson.

You should hear what Tony Gwynn has to say about him!

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Travis

Sounds good. I suppose a part of it is your implication with the comparison. I feel pretty comfortable hearing that Greinke is having a Pedro like stretch right now. If he does it for an entire season then I'd be bumping up the comparison a notch in seriousness (ie: would you consider him the next Pedro at that point rather than just a guy who has had a dominant stretch or two, etc).

Right, but again the argument keeps being changed. "is as good as Pedro" is much different than "is having a Pedro like stretch", and I certainly wouldn't argue with the latter comment.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

No, but my real life name is Paul Konerko and I've faced Greinke more times than any other hitter, including Jim Thome, and that means you can't argue with anything I say.

Are you always a retard or are you just playing one in this thread?

[Atocep]

I'm jumping in late, but I haven't had net access until about 30 minutes ago.

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

So you're of the opinion that Jim Thome is not better equipped than you or I to judge the similarities of two pitchers he's faced with regularity? Interesting. Certainly, it's nothing more than his opinion, but it's a knowledgeable opinion given the subject.

So, given the subject, Joe Morgan is a knowledgeable analyst? Steve Phillips?

Ronny Paulino and Jack Wilson both said Eckstein is more dangerous in clutch situations than Albert Pujols. So that's a statement we have to consider considering the source now.

Greinke has had a fantastic start to the season. Historic on some levels. But to compare him, as a pitcher, to Pedro at his pead is absurd even when you consider the fact that Greinke is an All-star pitcher that will likely contend for multiple cy young awards. Thats still nothing compared to how special Pedro was.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Are you always a retard or are you just playing one in this thread?

So you're just giving up on the argument then?

[Travis]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Right, but again the argument keeps being changed. "is as good as Pedro" is much different than "is having a Pedro like stretch", and I certainly wouldn't argue with the latter comment.

That's why I'm stepping out of this one. I don't think I've seen anybody saying Greinke is as good as Pedro on a career scale, just that he's on that level *right now*. How long that comparison will be valid for, who knows, hopefully a while, or maybe he falls back down to earth with his next start. Either way, I'm hoping we talk more about whether knuckleballers or David Wells are prettier to watch pitch

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Travis

That's why I'm stepping out of this one. I don't think I've seen anybody saying Greinke is as good as Pedro on a career scale, just that he's on that level *right now*. How long that comparison will be valid for, who knows, hopefully a while, or maybe he falls back down to earth with his next start. Either way, I'm hoping we talk more about whether knuckleballers or David Wells are prettier to watch pitch

Is David Wells drunk or sober in this situation?

[samifan24]

Greinke can pitch. I don't care if someone thinks he's better than so and so or worse than so and so. Just watch his starts and you might see something special. That's worth watching, in my opinion.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Is David Wells drunk or sober in this situation?

Hrmm, what better?

Drunk Wells throwing a knuckleball

Sober Canseco head butting a fly ball over the wall for a home run while trying to make the catch in LF?

[Lathum]

Just to chime in on the broadcaster talk, I have watched a few DBacks games on MLB Extra Innings and I really enjoy Mark Grace.

[Mr. Sparkle]

ARod hits a 3 run HR on the first pitch he sees.

[Jas_lov]

A-Rod's back- One pitch, one 3 run HR.

[sterlingice]

We probably should stop this pissing match as it started with a statement that might or might not even make it into MBBF's top 3 hyperbole of the week. Then people suggested a couple of other ways to interpret it. Which leads to a 50 post crapfest where 5 or 6 different people are arguing 2 different arguments but still shouting them at each other. No one is arguing that Greinke's 6 or 9 starts = Pedro's 7 years. Not even MBBF. I don't think.

Anyhoo... back to baseball! Royals start on a 5 game west coast road trip with 3 in Anaheim followed by 2 in Oakland. Meche, Greinke, and Davies for the Angels series.

SI

[DeToxRox]

Tigs up 1-0 in the top of the 9th, 1 on for Cleveland, 1 out, and Sizemore jack sone to CF and Curtis Granderson makes the best catch of the season considering it was a walk off HR he saved. Holy shit.

[DeToxRox]

And Verlander K's the next batter for the CG shutout.

[Schmidty]

That catch was unbelievable, especially with the game on the line.

[sterlingice]

Amazing catch by Granderson. They just showed it on MLBN

Ryan Braun with a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead for the Brewers vs the Cubs.

SI

[lordscarlet]

The Nats are holding on to a slim (for the Nats) lead in Arizona. And Zimmerman extended his hitting streak to 26 games.

I don't know if I have ever seen a Nats lineup with 6 over .300 and the rest at .250 or higher (including the P). They're 4th in AVG, 2nd in OBP and 2nd in Walks.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Amazing catch by Granderson. They just showed it on MLBN

Ryan Braun with a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 8th to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead for the Brewers vs the Cubs.

SI

I'm so glad someone else gets to deal with Heilman's bullshit this year.