Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.

I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin.

Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

I'm not conning anyone. If Cronin ends up being Stars then I'll accept a lynching tommorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I'll be very pleased to not be conned. One way or another, I expect we'll come back to this in the post-game.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by saldana

herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being

*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles*

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

I would have liked to have been able to have more time to write out that post but I had to go to work at the asscrack of dawn this morning.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later.

Some people like to make this game way too hard.

I marked this post to respond to as I was catching up again. My take on this is that Lathum is one of those guys who makes this game hard.

I don't think that the day one vote in any way clears Hoops from being Umbrella. His vote for him the second day, is much more persuasive in that regard. Lathum's two early votes for Hoops is one of the more reassuring things I've come across, as far as actions that tend to place someone in my camp.

[hoopsguy]

Glen, in fairness Lathum did not vote for me on Day 2. He voted for me to start Day 1, then moved it over to Cronin later in the day. He then voted for Cronin yesterday - the vote never found its way to me.

[Chubby]

At the moment...

(1) SnDVls - Fouts (935)
(2) St Cronin - Alan T (949), hoopsguy (1100)
(1) Fouts - Anxiety (979)
(1) Anxiety - St Cronin (987)
(1) Lonestargirl - BrianD (1017)

[Alan T]

Not many people voting or talking about stuff. I quieted up some to see what others had to say.. but people aren't pushing ideas for new people, trying to get UtR people to talk, analyzing the current suspects or anything...

[hoopsguy]

I know - I expected some questions about my change of direction. Not sure that I would have embarked on full disclosure but I'm a little concerned by how quiet it is, given the lack of votes in at the moment.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.

I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin.

Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

This was NOT what I was expecting at the end of my catching up.

Up until this point I was thinking there was a strange pseudo CoT forming between you Three. I thought that possibly Hoops was trying to find common ground between Alan and Cronin, convince them they might both be stars, and then place himself into that circle through his role in forming it.

Now I don't know what is happening.

?

Earlier, I was leaning to trusting Hoops. I was seriously warming up to an Alan T vote. Then, when he came strong into both Cronin's and Alan's court, I started to have my doubts about him. Now I'm truly clueless.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I know - I expected some questions about my change of direction. Not sure that I would have embarked on full disclosure but I'm a little concerned by how quiet it is, given the lack of votes in at the moment.

Im taking your switch with a grain of salt myself, but we've bashed back and forth most of the morning, so not sure what pushing more will do at this time

I would like to hear up from some of the others though who have been content to just follow along for the ride.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Glen, in fairness Lathum did not vote for me on Day 2. He voted for me to start Day 1, then moved it over to Cronin later in the day. He then voted for Cronin yesterday - the vote never found its way to me.

OK, OK. Thanks for clearing that up. I got confused. That is the problem with not devoting my entire attention to this game while at the office.

Now I have to unlearn my assumption.

[Alan T]

well time to head home from work. Hope more discussion is running when I get back tonight

[hoopsguy]

Alan, would you like me to publicly voice the reasons for my change or would you prefer that I just shut up and leave my vote where it is?

[BrianD]

I think I was talking along before everyone went quiet. I tried to start a rush on LSG to see what would shake out, but nobody joined with me. A bandwagon of one doesn't instill much fear so there has been no conversation. I'm still fine with switching to st.cronin if we can't get any UTR talk going.

I don't know what to think of the Hoops switch. Either he has been convinced, or he is looking to join the tide before it becomes obvious he is doing it.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Glen, in fairness Lathum did not vote for me on Day 2. He voted for me to start Day 1, then moved it over to Cronin later in the day. He then voted for Cronin yesterday - the vote never found its way to me.

Given that....I have a real issue with voting for Cronin today.

Yesterday I voted for snDvls, for the reasons I stated earlier. Piling on the current favorite for a lynch, and then making a statement I could clearly say was false along with his vote.

He addresses Alan's distrust, but completely ignores the fact that I voted for him yesterday. Like I'm going to forget it? That inaction strikes me just as suspicious as his action yesterday. I don't have any clue if I can trust Fouts or not, but I'm considering following him onto snDvls like he followed me yesterday.

snDvls. What's up?

---

I hate to ask that...and then depart, but I have a meeting I'm facilitating in two minutes. So I gotta go. I will be back. And I'm curious.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I think I was talking along before everyone went quiet. I tried to start a rush on LSG to see what would shake out, but nobody joined with me. A bandwagon of one doesn't instill much fear so there has been no conversation. I'm still fine with switching to st.cronin if we can't get any UTR talk going.

I don't know what to think of the Hoops switch. Either he has been convinced, or he is looking to join the tide before it becomes obvious he is doing it.

I'm having trouble deciding what to do when two people you were starting to place in a circle of trust start to fall apart. Cronin and Hoops, in case anyone is paying attention to my ramblings.

[SnDvls]

nothing's up really. I didn't pile on anyone I broke a tie a 4-4 tie with 8 others still waiting to vote. I have no special knowledge just like most the other's on here. I waited yesterday to cast a vote until I had to. I could have thrown away a vote or put it on Alan or St. C. I have more trust in St. C so I chose the lesser of two evils.

[hoopsguy]

Glen, in terms of the change on Cronin - the data that I evaluated yesterday to help me with my decision on Lathum was proven to not be conclusive on casting Cronin as a STAR with Tyrith's death.

Mathematically, I believed that Cronin had less of a chance to be a Zombie than anyone else in the game. But that still meant he had a 15-20% chance of being a zombie. So I re-analyzed the voting records from Day 1, along with the play from the last day and a half. Without giving away what I believe is role information, I think that Cronin is going to show up as not STARS tonight. And I'm having a hard time linking him to Lathum, so I'm leaning towards him as a Zombie at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Note that Cronin was in a 5-5 tie on Day 1 and a 4-4 tie on Day 2 but was not lynched either time.

This, in and of itself, is not damning. Particularly when you consider he was going against an inactive villager on Day 1 and an Umbrella on Day 2. But when you combine it with the play of other participants in our game I reach the conclusion that this is significant.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, if I was looking to jump on a tide today I think it would have been a better strategy to just pick a tide, rather than raging against a guy early and then switching to him mid-day.

I'm doing my best to play the game as a villager (STARS). Take the information available, process it, make assumptions, act on the data, re-evaluate assumptions when there is reason to do so. Truth be told, it is kind of fun to do after a fairly long run of bad guy games (broken up only by a game with no frigging info).

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Ok, I agree with all of this. I don't think Lathum's vote will point to anybody as zombie/non-zombie. I do think it could help us find some umbrellas - these players did not vote to lynch Lathum: AlanT, Anxiety, BrianD, GlenGoyne, Saldana (RIP), Fouts, spleen, SnDvls. It wouldn't surprise me if all remaining umbrellas (2? 3? 4?) are in there. HOWEVER I don't think we want to be looking for umbrellas. I'm not just not sure how to look for zombies at this point.

Catching up, but I wanted to say its probably a good bet that the zombies would pile on Lathum. Something to think about later in the game.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, he's definitely given me a good feeling. I could be wrong, but without actually seeing him eat brains, he's in my cot.

Whoa. NTN is in your cot? He's made what? 5 posts?

NTN voted for me.

You could be convinced to vote for me, and would include NTN in your cot.

Therefore, neither of you are STARS.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by BrianD

And you think one of the few people that are high on the radar is the infector? Judging by the back-and-forth we've had the past few days, I'd think that we have probably been looking at some bad guys, but there hasn't been an overly strong defense for anyone. We've got almost 11 hours before the deadline, maybe we can ferret out the infector. We are only shooting blind if we generate no discussion today. I could be convinced to vote for some of the current targets, but just to start things off.

Vote LoneStarGirl

This vote make zero sense. I see nothing from LSG that makes her suspicious.

And adding a 5th suspect is crazy. I'm still watching you Brian.

[ntndeacon]

ok I am more confused than I was before today. At the beginning of the day iwas pretty sure, where iwas going to put my vote, as several of thier comments did not add up to me. but iam wavering on that now.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well so far I have seen two moves which to me felt like an attempt to "save" someone. First move yesterday when I noticed Lathum's behavior in correlation to fouts which is why I still link them together.

The problem with this thinking is - Lathum's role looks like the most important Umbrella role out there. For Lathum to make that move would be nuts.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, where were you going to vote and what confused you?

I'm waiting to see when Fouts gets caught up - kind of interesting looking at his posts/responses as he reads along with stuff from earlier in the day.

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, we don't have any understanding of the research role for Umbrella. So it is hard to say what is the most important role.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

kind of interesting looking at his posts/responses as he reads along with stuff from earlier in the day.

agreed, but not quite as funny as the one time...don't know who it was schmidty I think....had been killed and was commenting on all the stuff for like 8 posts before he realized he was dead.

[hoopsguy]

Think it might have been marc vaughan during the first Spawn game. Good times.

[path12]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

agreed, but not quite as funny as the one time...don't know who it was schmidty I think....had been killed and was commenting on all the stuff for like 8 posts before he realized he was dead.

I've done that before also.

I don't have a lot of time today, as I mentioned earlier I'm out of the office most of the day and have a function tonight. Frankly, a lot of the cronin/Alan arguments are just white noise at this point, I feel like they're just going in circles and sooner or later it becomes a blur. My sense has been that they're likely both good.

Now hoops' vote to cronin gives me pause. I also said this morning that out of the three he was the one I was most unsure of. So, hoops, give me a general idea of where to look for what caused your change of heart regarding cronin.

Truth be told at this point I'm happy to join along if for no other reason than to stop this whole alan/cronin bickering, which I think plays right into the bad guys hands. But I need to get a better idea of where hoops is coming from.

[Fouts]

One question I had - would the person being interrogated know they were interrogated?

[hoopsguy]

Path, here are a couple of things to look at:
1. Start with the lead-up to Day 2, where Alan posts his Lathum vs Fouts analysis
2. Look at the vote recaps from Day 2 with the idea that Cronin is a known bad guy
3. Read Day 3

I don't want to burn someone here by outing a (potential) role. But if you follow this process I think you will wind up in the same place where I was with my vote today.

And if I'm reading it wrong, leading to Cronin being lynched as STARS then I accept that I got worked and that I put our team in a very tough position the rest of the way.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Whoa. NTN is in your cot? He's made what? 5 posts?

NTN voted for me.

You could be convinced to vote for me, and would include NTN in your cot.

Therefore, neither of you are STARS.

I have a strong feeling neither of you are STARS, but I suppose what it really means is neither of you are the PC.

[Fouts]

Glen, why did you coerce me onto SnDvls yesterday, but are hesitant to vote for him today?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NTN, where were you going to vote and what confused you?

I'm waiting to see when Fouts gets caught up - kind of interesting looking at his posts/responses as he reads along with stuff from earlier in the day.

My vote was headed to Alan. His constant carping on his unimportance of his Stars role is my my reason. how many of those do we have?

[ntndeacon]

a question. do y'all think there are generic umbrella agents or are all of them named people?

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, here are a couple of things to look at:
1. Start with the lead-up to Day 2, where Alan posts his Lathum vs Fouts analysis
2. Look at the vote recaps from Day 2 with the idea that Cronin is a known bad guy
3. Read Day 3

I don't want to burn someone here by outing a (potential) role. But if you follow this process I think you will wind up in the same place where I was with my vote today.

And if I'm reading it wrong, leading to Cronin being lynched as STARS then I accept that I got worked and that I put our team in a very tough position the rest of the way.

OK, I wish I had more time to think this over but sometimes real life gets in the way.

I think I see where you're going with this, hoops. I'm not convinced it's correct, but I think we need some kind of resolution on this issue before we can move forward intelligently. I certainly don't have a better idea.

Vote st.cronin

So I'm out until later tonight. I hope this works.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

a question. do y'all think there are generic umbrella agents or are all of them named people?

I initially thought there were generic umbrella people, but as the game progressed I'm a bit less sure of that now.


I'm back , but have my girls this evening and then have to do a network change at 8pm, so going to be spotty on and off here tonight.

Hoops as far as spelling things out, I am guessing based on what you are saying you put some of the pieces together, but I am unsure if you have the whole picture. I'm pretty sure some things you are unaware of still.

If you are bad, then well this is unfortunate that you put it all together, but it was a matter of time. If you are good then well I'm glad you figured it out.

Either way, you now see my cerntainty of today's action and why I was onto Lathum -> Fouts early. Now lets just hope you aren't bad I guess.

(will respond to more if there is stuff addressed to me. trying to catch up)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

My vote was headed to Alan. His constant carping on his unimportance of his Stars role is my my reason. how many of those do we have?

If you feel I am the least trusted person left, then by all means vote for me. I'm the incorrect choice if you are good, or correct choice for vote if you're bad. However, all I ask is for you to give your reasons for it, for people to go back to look at later

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I think I was talking along before everyone went quiet. I tried to start a rush on LSG to see what would shake out, but nobody joined with me. A bandwagon of one doesn't instill much fear so there has been no conversation. I'm still fine with switching to st.cronin if we can't get any UTR talk going.

I don't know what to think of the Hoops switch. Either he has been convinced, or he is looking to join the tide before it becomes obvious he is doing it.

Yes, I'm guessing for the hoops switch, he either truthfully put the pieces together and is a good guy, or he realized finally the strength of my position and is selling out a team mate before the dam bursts on him. I'm guessing if he is a zombie and he figured it all out, that this is the time to get on the right side before things get worse for him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Fouts

The problem with this thinking is - Lathum's role looks like the most important Umbrella role out there. For Lathum to make that move would be nuts.

That is what I initially was thinking. But like I said earlier in the day, we don't know what the research role entails, and it might have been an honest slip up on his part where he got busted without realizing he had given too much away.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Alan T

That is what I initially was thinking. But like I said earlier in the day, we don't know what the research role entails, and it might have been an honest slip up on his part where he got busted without realizing he had given too much away.

Lathum is a better player than that.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Fouts

This vote make zero sense. I see nothing from LSG that makes her suspicious.

And adding a 5th suspect is crazy. I'm still watching you Brian.

Of course you are, you are always watching me.

Did you not get the point of what I was trying to do even after explaining it many times? We keep spinning around the same few people while a majority of the players are staying in the background. I was trying to smoke others out to try to see which way they were leaning.

*tap microphone* Is this thing on? I feel like I keep saying the same thing and get absolutely no response. I guess nobody wants to look deeper than the few vocal people.

Unvote LoneStarGirl
Vote St.Cronin

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Lathum is a better player than that.

Well he got caught on day 2, good player or not, bogus reasons or not he got caught. Everyone messes up at some point.

It could be entirely possible that Lathum being a bad guy and you being a bad guy is entirely unrelational and I just got lucky with the correlation that wasnt there.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Of course you are, you are always watching me.

Did you not get the point of what I was trying to do even after explaining it many times? We keep spinning around the same few people while a majority of the players are staying in the background. I was trying to smoke others out to try to see which way they were leaning.

*tap microphone* Is this thing on? I feel like I keep saying the same thing and get absolutely no response. I guess nobody wants to look deeper than the few vocal people.

Unvote LoneStarGirl
Vote St.Cronin

Well to be fair, how much heat were you going to put on someone who said she wasn't going to be able to be around much today?

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well he got caught on day 2, good player or not, bogus reasons or not he got caught. Everyone messes up at some point.

It could be entirely possible that Lathum being a bad guy and you being a bad guy is entirely unrelational and I just got lucky with the correlation that wasnt there.

Amazing, you concede that the connection might not exist, but still think I'm bad.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Amazing, you concede that the connection might not exist, but still think I'm bad.

Well you have to remember that the connection was drawn from me thinking you were bad and then him acting fishy in trying to push people away from you.

It wasnt a case of me thinking Lathum bad and then tying it to you.

[Alan T]

dola and I'll say this..

If you aren't aligned with Lathum then I would kill you today since you are a zombie.

The only reason I didn't push for your lynch today is I think its a high likelihood that you are umbrella, and for today at least I want to try for a zombie

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well to be fair, how much heat were you going to put on someone who said she wasn't going to be able to be around much today?

Was she the only person playing UTR? We already know what people have been saying about the few we've been talking about. What we don't know is who might have been willing to step up to her defense. I was willing to take a shot at bringing out more info. Hopefully we'll learn enough from what happens tonight.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Was she the only person playing UTR? We already know what people have been saying about the few we've been talking about. What we don't know is who might have been willing to step up to her defense. I was willing to take a shot at bringing out more info. Hopefully we'll learn enough from what happens tonight.

there are a few people playing UtR, and by all means I think going after them is a pretty good idea. I just don't to yet is all. Perhaps when the zombies finally kill 2 specific people, I'll feel a bit differently.