WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!!

[hoopsguy]

Jackal, I think that a person who is in danger of a lycnh should always weight the value of a reveal prior to being lynched. I know that I've certainly done that up to this point, but have never pulled the trigger even when I was in a tie.

If there is going to be a reveal, it seems more valid to me if it comes at a point where others have an opportunity to respond to it. That was part of why I thought EF was lying - because the seer reveal was his second one and it came 10 minutes before deadline. If he had revealed later in the afternoon then it would have seemed much more legit because there would have been time for a counter (for a fake reveal or a wolf 1:1 gambit) to emerge.

If there is someone else sitting on the sidelines with a role that doesn't necessarily clear anyone else, that is pretty much their decision to make. I'll try to encourage a role to come out if it is building a COT, but almost never if it is just clearing themselves.

[The Jackal]

The more I think about it, the more I realize the wolves could probably manipulate a full reveal right now, even if they let a BG get trusted.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The more I think about it, the more I realize the wolves could probably manipulate a full reveal right now, even if they let a BG get trusted.

Yep, based on this from the rules page:

Unlike the first game, which was designed to be very player friendly, in this game I will be giving you a list of roles included ahead of time, but I will also be adding about 10 or so extra roles, so that you do not know exactly what is what. The Blakekin will be given a list of roles in the game prior to play beginning, so that they know.

[The Jackal]

Yeah. I think it would be interesting to see what roles people claimed, but the confusion factor would negate any positives during that process, probably.

[nfg22]

hoops...my post to lerruqs was merely a joke. I know its not always the best to have humor in WW but I still try and do. As for why Im not offering analysis(and dont take this the wrong way): I offered what real analysis that I have had, which wasnt much. I offered that this weekend. You KEEP ON asking for more. I dont have anything. That hasnt changed because the deadline has not been passed yet. We have no more info. If you want me to keep on giving you info that doesnt mean anything but gets us to keep lynching villagers then so be it I will. The fact is the little info out there isnt helping. So far we have lynched a ton of villagers on faulty analysis and I dont want to contribute. The fact is, I have very little idea what is going on and I dont want to add to the mess. I look at what you say and I like it. I look at Jackal and I like it. I look at everyone and I like it. You know why? Because everyone has good reasons. The fact is the wolves are very well hidden. Whether because we(the villagers) have screwed up alot, or because they are good. I am waiting for a good argument of which I have none. I feel like I am less sure of myself every minute and definetly less sure than the beginning of the game. Im not saying its hopeless. I just know i have nothing, and im not going to make up stuff to look more credible.

[nfg22]

Sorry for the length...

[MartinD]

Vote count, as of Post #1106:

Hoops: 4 - NFG (1010), Jets (1055), Clap (1071), The Jackal (1078)
Jackal: 3 - PB (1036), Hoops (1072), lerriuqs (1076)
NFG: 1 - MartinD (1021)

To vote: Schmidty

(Based on hoops' earlier vote count at 1073.)

[MartinD]

Looks like there's no momentum for lynching nfg22, so I'll be shifting my vote - may as well make the unvote official right now, but I'll need a bit longer to make my mind up between hoopsguy and The Jackal.

UNVOTE NFG22

(Yes, I do see the irony in posting a vote count that I immediately change )

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Looks like there's no momentum for lynching nfg22, so I'll be shifting my vote - may as well make the unvote official right now, but I'll need a bit longer to make my mind up between hoopsguy and The Jackal.

UNVOTE NFG22

(Yes, I do see the irony in posting a vote count that I immediately change )

I'll post just one thing about this for you and schmidtty to consider - don't you find it odd that everyone is voting opposite of the only cleared player in the game? We have either three or four wolves still out there...

Personally I get the feeling that this is just about over for the village if Hoops is lynched...I don't think I'm wrong.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

I offered what real analysis that I have had, which wasnt much. I offered that this weekend. You KEEP ON asking for more. I dont have anything.

I ask for people to react to new information in the thread, to changing vote totals, etc. Even within a single day, a werewolf game is pretty dynamic.

The conversation in the thread is essentially what the game is about. If people don't post, we don't have a game. If people don't react to what is in the thread then how do they make decisions?

I just don't understand the stance that you are taking. If I was convinced you were a wolf I wouldn't be trying so hard to understand it.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I'll post just one thing about this for you and schmidtty to consider - don't you find it odd that everyone is voting opposite of the only cleared player in the game? We have either three or four wolves still out there...

Fair point, and one I'll take into account in making my decision - am just about to head out for a run, so I won't be posting my vote for a couple of hours. (I'll probably do a bit of thinking while I'm out running, though - find that it's a great time to get some quality thinking done )

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I'll post just one thing about this for you and schmidtty to consider - don't you find it odd that everyone is voting opposite of the only cleared player in the game? We have either three or four wolves still out there...

Personally I get the feeling that this is just about over for the village if Hoops is lynched...I don't think I'm wrong.

I don't find it that odd, considering hoops has been a suspect since almost day 1 and that PB hasn't had a great voting record so far. It's not like he has any info we don't.

[hoopsguy]

I'm out for the next couple of hours as well. Hopefully will have some time between 5-7 PM EST and again in the 30-60 minutes leading up to the deadline.

I've tried to respond to any questions that have been asked of me so far. If there is anything that you feel I have not addressed to you satisfaction up to this point please ask and I'll make sure to address it.

I don't think we are 100% done if we get this vote wrong, but it would be a very, vary large hill to climb. I would obviously rather not find out ... let's just get a wolf today.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't find it that odd, considering hoops has been a suspect since almost day 1 and that PB hasn't had a great voting record so far. It's not like he has any info we don't.

Of course you don't find it odd, you and the rest of the wolves benefit from it. From my viewpoint (of being part of two villagers and a self protect vote) it's just plainly obvious to me that we have a wolf almost on the ropes and all the wolves voting against that happening by voting for hoops.

To the rest of the villagers out there - vote Jackal today - we'll get one for sure IMO. If it doesn't work, go ahead and lynch me tomorrow to end the game. We pretty much end it today if we take hoops - especially if there are 4 wolves.

[The Jackal]

Why is it plainly obvious that there is a wolf on the ropes? I don't know what to tell you, lerriuqs, I'm a villager. Maybe hoops is one too and clap is a wolf, but you aren't helping anything by being dead set on me. You still haven't really offered any explanation as to why you are voting for me.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Why is it plainly obvious that there is a wolf on the ropes? I don't know what to tell you, lerriuqs, I'm a villager. Maybe hoops is one too and clap is a wolf, but you aren't helping anything by being dead set on me. You still haven't really offered any explanation as to why you are voting for me.

I've told you before - I don't believe hoops is a wolf. That opinion hasn't changed.

The list of options is getting short - mine is as follows right now:

Trust: PB, Hoops

Distrust:Jackal, clap, nfg

Don't know - Martin D, Schmidty, Jets

I think it's pretty obvious due to the following - PB is a villager, I know I am. There are no others voting for you besides Hoops - who, even if a wolf is voting in self-defense. But with two voters to go, no one else has voted Jackal. Which tells me there's at least one wolf who's already voted hoops and possibly all 3 or 4 already with two outstanding votes left at this point. The odds at this time point to the wolves wanting it to end this way hoping enough villagers vote with them. They only need it once.

If there were any other votes on you Jackal right now, I wouldn't be as sure on this, but the way the votes have gone today seem just to convenient.

And my distrust list stems from one thing alone - all three have been quick to do damage control when their name comes up as suspicious - but they've provided very little analysis on their own. I have no concrete proof, but their posts just seem off for being a villager to me.

[The Jackal]

Thank you for spelling your thoughts out. You are positive that hoops is a villager, there's not much I can do to sway you then. I hope for our sake he is.

[MartinD]

Sorry for taking as long to make my mind up, but I feel that this is an important vote to get right - don't think we're at end-game just yet, but I suspect that it's not too far away if we don't find a wolf here. (While I'm not an expert on game balance, I would be shocked if there were only two wolves, and three means that lynching a villager would potentially put us at 4-3 going into tomorrow's vote.)

I've voted for hoopsguy a few times already in this game, but I'm not going to vote for him today - reading his posts, I'm seeing a guy who is doing everything he can to help the village win. He's got the support of the only trusted player in the game, and I agree with the general line of thinking that lerriuqs is putting forward. In addition, I think that hoops dropped a couple of hints about his role, which makes it more likely in my mind that he's one of the good guys.

By contrast, when I read The Jackal's posts, I'm getting the impression that he's trying to hide something while appearing to help the village - I can't put my finger on exactly what's making me think this, but it's enough, when combined with my increasing trust of hoops, to decide where my vote is going today.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[MartinD]

Quick addition to my previous post: Apologies to Schmidty for putting it all on his shoulders - OK, it's still early, and there is the possibility of someone changing their vote, but 4-4 with one vote to come is not a nice position to put someone in...

[PurdueBrad]

Sorry, haven't been around much today, had my new boss over for lunch. I'll be on a bit later, but I think my vote stands for now.

[nfg22]

hmm....my vote could be important. I dont want to mess this up...

[The Jackal]

Well, I'm out of the thread from 6 until after nine but I should be around for at least a half hour before the deadline if people have questions.

[hoopsguy]

I'm around now, but not sure for how much longer. I'll definitely be back for 30-60 minutes before the deadline.

[MartinD]

I'm out for the night - not going to move my vote now.

[Schmidty]

Ok, sorry I haven't had the chance to be around at all since Saturday. We've been busy down here in Redding. It was 115 degrees here today. I've never been so hot and miserable in my life. My wife and her mom made me go shopping with them, and I can tell you that in the parking lots it must have been like 125 because of the asphalt.

Anyway, it looks like it's a tie between hoops and the Jackal. I hate being the deciding vote. I had been thinking hoops, but after reading some of his recent posts, and remembering how desperate (for lack of a better word, so offense), I think I'm going to go with:

VOTE THE JACKAL

This might be my last time on today, as we're going swimming, but I hope to around before the lynch.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Ok, sorry I haven't had the chance to be around at all since Saturday. We've been busy down here in Redding. It was 115 degrees here today. I've never been so hot and miserable in my life. My wife and her mom made me go shopping with them, and I can tell you that in the parking lots it must have been like 125 because of the asphalt.

Anyway, it looks like it's a tie between hoops and the Jackal. I hate being the deciding vote. I had been thinking hoops, but after reading some of his recent posts, and remembering how desperate (for lack of a better word, so offense), I think I'm going to go with:

VOTE THE JACKAL

This might be my last time on today, as we're going swimming, but I hope to around before the lynch.

Bolded my vote there.

[nfg22]

Im out till lynch....I wont move my vote as I dont have enough reason....but i hope this works out well as im totally confused

[PurdueBrad]

Vote count, as of Post #1127:

Hoops: 4 - NFG (1010), Jets (1055), Clap (1071), The Jackal (1078)
Jackal: 5 - PB (1036), Hoops (1072), lerriuqs (1076), Martin D (1118), Schmidty (1126)


Gonna be a close, fun one tonight. I should be on leading up to lynch and have no problem playing swing vote as I may bounce back and forth between the two.

[claphamsa]

unvote hoops
vote jackyl!

hope im not duped! ill be worried about hoops later..... but hes been too onto jacyl just be building trust for endgame.

[hoopsguy]

Not sure what else to say at this point - I'm hoping that this vote holds and we get our wolf with the vote. If that is how it shakes out I think we have a pretty good shot at winning this. I'm pretty confident in the four person COT that will come from it (me, PB, Lerriuqs, Schmidty) and think we can ride that to victory while sorting out the remaining players.

FWIW, I think that the wolves were hoping/counting on Schmidty to stay on me this afternoon like he had indicated on Saturday night. But I'll have more to say on that if/when we get our first wolf.

[henry296]

[hoopsguy]

Well, I'm around for the duration at this point. I guess I'll take some of that popcorn.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm here too Hoops. It's currently 6-3, two moves and you're gone.

[hoopsguy]

PB - I can't control it if that happens.

Bobby Knight once said, "If rape is inevitable, may as well lay back and enjoy it". Hideously inappropriate at the time, but seems kind of applicable if a late run does emerge.

[hoopsguy]

Oh, and if it does come about I'll share my little teen angst detail that has no bearing on the game (that I can tell, anyway). Just to make some baby step towards bringing role play back into the game.

As the resident dungeon master of the group, I do feel comfortable sharing that I played my first game of Arkham Horror while visiting my brother this weekend. It was pretty fun.

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, looking back, there was a three vote run on you in the Hoops-Pass showdown that featured three voters that are still alive: Clap, Jackal, nfg. I'm guessing that all three can't be wolves, too obvious in that run, but at least one of them is. Of that trio, is Jackal your most likely? Who is second, Clap?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

As the resident dungeon master of the group, I do feel comfortable sharing that I played my first game of Arkham Horror while visiting my brother this weekend. It was pretty fun.

Never played any RP, but that one has a terrific reputation.

[hoopsguy]

PB - that is correct. At this point I think it is more likely that Clap is the most likely second wolf.

I'm trying very hard not to get too far ahead of myself in wolf scenarios - I frequently chastise other players for their "Encylopedia Brown" plays early in games where they think they have multiple wolves linked together. But I think it is very likely that multiple wolves attempted to help Danny on Day 1 and I know that I'm not a wolf. There are two other players alive that were on Pass that day: Jackal + Clap.

[PurdueBrad]

If there are four wolves left, this lynch is endgame. If you and Schmidty are two of them, well-played. If it is Jackal-Claph, then I'm glad we're getting one and I feel worse about getting Norm lynched on a gut feeling.

[hoopsguy]

PB, I sure hope that there are not four wolves left - even with a good lynch today we would have a lot of work left to pull out a win.

I think 3 remaining is the most likely scenario. Maybe an outside chance at 2, but that seems like wishful thinking.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Oh, and if it does come about I'll share my little teen angst detail that has no bearing on the game (that I can tell, anyway). Just to make some baby step towards bringing role play back into the game.

As the resident dungeon master of the group, I do feel comfortable sharing that I played my first game of Arkham Horror while visiting my brother this weekend. It was pretty fun.

I bought this as part of the collection of games I got a month or so ago, but haven't played it yet. Looking forward to when I finally do.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, snuggle up with the rules for about three hours before you play for the first time if you do not have an experienced hand to serve as the guide. There are a ton of differnt conditions that apply for almost every dice roll.

[hoopsguy]

No reveal from TheJackal - I'm hoping that is a good sign.

[PurdueBrad]

Looks like time, good luck village.

[Abe Sargent]

time check

[Abe Sargent]

that is time

[hoopsguy]

Buwahahaha
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Oh wait - not this time.

[The Jackal]

I got held out past deadline, but I didn't think it would matter anyways.

I'll let Abe tell you the bad news.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Buwahahaha
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Oh wait - not this time.

Not a fan of yours...jerk.

[Schmidty]

I quit WW.

I'm terrible. Tired of getting led around.