Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[Alan T]

So far, Im not putting a ton of weight behind anyone's claims unless its backed up by someone else I trust. Right now the only person who I am really letting my trust go for is the folks Cronin is backing. (btw if you want to scan me tonight Cronin, go for it, unless you have someone you feel is a better choice. I feel that I have been trying to make strong cases for a few people and having you back me up on those would make it easier I think for me).

Either way, the three people I still have been focusing on for a few days now are Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith. Unless people come out to back up Anxiety's story somehow, Im likely going to keep my vote here.

[st.cronin]

If there is a second seer, I suspect it is somebody who can find the wizard, but not the henchmen.

[Barkeep49]

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

Keep in mind that my role reveal came early in a gameday when there were very few votes on anybody. I did so because I thought the chance of me getting killed at night had reached the point where it made more sense to come forward, even not having IDed a single henchman. By all means, go through my posts - I was somewhat misleading in the first three gamedays, but today I've been completely open.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

The first few days I had some issues in my head on whether to trust cronin or hoops in their earlier going back and forth. At first I started leaning towards hoops as his arguements usually have pretty good reasoning (a very dangerous thing if he is not on our team). Then the next day when the Blade vs Hoops thing came into play, watching cronin back peddle some made me a bit uneasy. Now we understand why he did that based on his reveal. I think for the most part he has been consistant with his story even though he seemed inconsistant the first few days.

The other thing that I have been trying to figure out is how Cronin first revealed his role (the tiebreak announcement stuff) before he released his info about the seer part of his role. When he initially did it, it made me a bit curious more than distrustful of him, because of how he said it contradicted a few things I knew to be true just slightly. In a later day he clarified it some and it made more sense to me, and allowed me to feel comfortable with him as being on our side. I could go into more details, but I don't think this is necessarily the best time as revealing the rest of my role right now invalidates it a bit (or makes it less potent or less of a suprise for the bad guys I should say).

[Abe Sargent]

I don't know, I'd have to check.

-Anxiety

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

You'n me both, to be honest. But, I just went back to his post of people he has mostly cleared.

Hoops - Even he questioned.
Blade - Obviously a wolf.
Barkeep - You're pretty high on my list of people to trust.
Me - Duh.

That's 2 people I know are good guys, 1 person I'm pretty damn sure is a good guy, and the ever present hoops. If Cronin was lying about his role, it seems sort of silly with the people he's chosen to clear.

[saldana]

that may have been the most worthless reveal ever...you gave us absolutely nothing in terms of new or helpful information, plus the name of your role isnt really consistent with what you say you can do.

i would expect more power than a vauge sense of trust to be vested in a witch. that coupled with what i already believe about seer types in this game and i call shenanigans on your role reveal.

[saldana]

dola, i was refering to anxiety's reveal

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, i was refering to anxiety's reveal

I figured

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

If Cronin was lying about his role, it seems sort of silly with the people he's chosen to clear.

You should know, better then anyone, about this topic. If you are going to be a seer and are a bad guy you should only try and clear good guys, with MAYBE one exception thrown in. So interestingly enough I don't really distrust his info much, either way. I just want to make sure we're on good footing with trusting him. And it makes me happy to know I'm not the only one having this thought.

[Barkeep49]

Werewitch sounds like a role which could be in the game. But I would suspect it would have something direct to do with the wizzard. Afterall a werewitch sounds like the werewolf version of a wizard. So, as mentioned before, that part gives credibility. The rest of the info? Not so much.

[Abe Sargent]

My previous post was in response to Barkeep's question.

Doesn;t look like it. Of course, I used the info from my Night 0 intuition early, but I did not allude to a role. I didn't, at the time, know what kind of information I would get from my role, so I absolutely tried to keep it to myself until after I used my info to vote for cronin. Without knowing how much info you'll get, why upset the cart? Especially when the antagonists have no idea who to go after, why hint that you might be a good target?

BTW, Barkeep, you even posted that you agreed with my reasons except for the tongue in cheek reason four for voting for you on Day One. You can't say they were good reasons then and bad now. Pick a lane

-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I don't know, I'd have to check.

-Anxiety

Well then I would assume the answer is no.

Also a big shout out to Pseudodragon, who's been lurking in the thread for a while. Hope you are thinking of joining in this fun next game!

[Barkeep49]

Actually the only point Anxiety that I agreed was fair was being the first person to cast a vote on D1 could be suspicious. We have no empircal data to suggest it is suspicious but I did understand how it could be viewed that way. The rest of the points I thought had no validity.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well then I would assume the answer is no.

Also a big shout out to Pseudodragon, who's been lurking in the thread for a while. Hope you are thinking of joining in this fun next game!

lol

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The first few days I had some issues in my head on whether to trust cronin or hoops in their earlier going back and forth. At first I started leaning towards hoops as his arguements usually have pretty good reasoning (a very dangerous thing if he is not on our team). Then the next day when the Blade vs Hoops thing came into play, watching cronin back peddle some made me a bit uneasy. Now we understand why he did that based on his reveal. I think for the most part he has been consistant with his story even though he seemed inconsistant the first few days.

The other thing that I have been trying to figure out is how Cronin first revealed his role (the tiebreak announcement stuff) before he released his info about the seer part of his role. When he initially did it, it made me a bit curious more than distrustful of him, because of how he said it contradicted a few things I knew to be true just slightly. In a later day he clarified it some and it made more sense to me, and allowed me to feel comfortable with him as being on our side. I could go into more details, but I don't think this is necessarily the best time as revealing the rest of my role right now invalidates it a bit (or makes it less potent or less of a suprise for the bad guys I should say).

Without giving up your role, can you say a little bit more about what you mean?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well then I would assume the answer is no.

Rereading this, it comes off harsher then I really want it to be. I simply meant that if he had to look back in his posts for hints about a role, it's less likely those hints are there. If he'd been dropping sutble clues since N0 or D1 I'd give more weight to believing him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

As for who I'd want you to sniff, I think it sort of depends on how Anxiety comes out. If he's dirty I think you have to possibly look at people like Alan and Lathum who don't have anyone vouching for them. If he's clean I'm not sure, but maybe Tyrith?

I cleared blade long before he was killed when there was heat on him so why is my name coming up in this. If I was a baddie I would have kept my mouth shut and not vouched for him.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I cleared blade long before he was killed when there was heat on him so why is my name coming up in this. If I was a baddie I would have kept my mouth shut and not vouched for him.

A fair point but doesn't change my underlying point that no one is vouching for you. It would be nice if cronin were able to do that.

[st.cronin]

I somewhat trust Lathum, but I can't remember why. Let me go back and look.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Without giving up your role, can you say a little bit more about what you mean?

It might be hard to do without giving up too much, let me try here though. Look at day 2. Your first vote was an out of the blue vote for hoops because he was "bad news" no real rhyme or reason there. Your next post gives your role, a post which doesnt directly contradict what I know to be true, but did not necessarily mesh up with it. At this point is about when I got back in town and had to catch up on two days of voting posts.

You then post a clarification to your role which made things a little easier for me, but either I missed it or did not read it entirely as I dont feel my suspicion for you had died down at that point. If you then read my first real post besides the one that said I was back and trying to catch up, you will see my questioning you and your reveal. I had a feeling your role reveal at that point wasnt necessarily real, but was not sure then if it was for good reasons or bad reasons.

In the next day when you went back and forth with Blade some, you posted some things that Blade jumped on you as being contradictions of what you had said previously, but for me they were more clarification of how you understood your role, but more importantly finally matched up with what I believed to be true.

[Barkeep49]

I also partially trust Lathum because he's been early and right on a lot of people.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Either way, the three people I still have been focusing on for a few days now are Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith. Unless people come out to back up Anxiety's story somehow, Im likely going to keep my vote here.

I've asked you multiple times the past few games, and I don't think given me any good reason for me being included as a strong suspect.

[Barkeep49]

Well schmidty I'll give you a reason: You aren't in anyones circle of trust. Granted I'm not sure how rocksolid the current cronin-bk-saldana-coffee-hoops circle is, but it's a damn good starting point as it's narrowed down the field quite a bit.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I've asked you multiple times the past few games, and I don't think given me any good reason for me being included as a strong suspect.

I actually made two different posts in reply to you Not sure if you saw them or missed them.. But you have been acting pretty similar to the other two who I also distrust. Someone argued against me that you act this way every game, to which I replied that may be true, but it doesn't make things any easier to differ your behavior from Anxiety or Tyrith's behavior.
Basically you have stayed unattached from everyone, I dont think many people other than myself and maybe one or two people have been mentioning you good or bad, and all of your posts are borderline crazy sounding so its hard to pull out any kind of info from them. Right now with our circle of trust extending, its starting to make those who are not in my circle stand out a bit more.

[st.cronin]

Lathum's post history since roles were handed out

168 - votes for McKerney because he is quieter than usual
177 - attacks McKerney for calling himself a villager
180 - expands on his attack
187 - questions Blade's assertion that "the wolves are making a mistake"
220 - "off to work"
361 - wants to know what I mean by calling hoopsguy "bad luck"
381 - wants clarification on my role
389 - "I think there is something fishy about st.cronin..."
391 - "leaving for work"
393 - votes mckerney, for being quiet
551 - wonders if a tie could clear either me or saldana
565 - wonders if there was a conversion
568 - asks Blade for clarification on Blade's challenge of hoopsguy's role reveal
569 -

I feel pretty good about schmidty right now, he made a late switch of Mckerney when he could have just left his vote on mckerney and sealed the fate of a wolf. Why would schmidty do that and call all that attention to himself if he was a baddie?

573 - continues to press Blade
578 - more pressing on Blade and hoops
605 - asks Blade if he's the witness
613 - demands to know if Blade is the witness
615 - jokey post
622 - thinks it's important to find out why Blade wasn't killed
(Tyrith, 623 - "or weren't converted")
628 - more pressing on Blade
633 - pressing on hoops
646 - more
649 - says Blade and hoops are both telling the truth, trusts me and saldana
661 - would rather not say why he trusts hoops
667 -

Hoops and Blade, I think you are focusing to much attention on each other and playing into the baddies hands.

Trust me, you are both telling the truth and need to look elsewhere.

685 - doesn't trust anxiety, trusts schmidty, doesn't trust ardent
688 - goes over Anxiety's voting record
689 - votes Anxiety
693 - "off to work"
865 -

I just got back from work and reread everything. Crazy is all I have to say. That and I am surprised Blade isn't supporting me more.

875 - where is Foz
891 -

i wonder where foz is? this could effect peoples night actions.

907 - will be away all weekend
910 - suggests a quick night turnaround
918 - funny post, actually -

I told you guys I was positive about blade

937 -

I think they went for blade acting under the assumption he can't be protected 2 nights in a row.

I still trust hoops, protecting Saldana on day 2 may be random but usually the first few days are unless there is a role reveal.

The question I have is if hoops didn't protect blade on night 2 then how did he survive an attack? Any info on this would be helpfull.

940 - asks hoops if he has protected anybody yet
944 - wonders if Blade is blessed
947 - suggests it is "VERY IMPORTANT" to know why the message I got about hoops was different
948 - has to go now
955 - wonders if hoops has had a succesful protection
1119 - says he cleared blade before he was killed

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I actually made two different posts in reply to you Not sure if you saw them or missed them.. But you have been acting pretty similar to the other two who I also distrust. Someone argued against me that you act this way every game, to which I replied that may be true, but it doesn't make things any easier to differ your behavior from Anxiety or Tyrith's behavior.
Basically you have stayed unattached from everyone, I dont think many people other than myself and maybe one or two people have been mentioning you good or bad, and all of your posts are borderline crazy sounding so its hard to pull out any kind of info from them. Right now with our circle of trust extending, its starting to make those who are not in my circle stand out a bit more.

That still doesn't really answer my question. Why does my play-style (i.e. lazy until attacked) scream bad-guy to you? What the hell should I be doing that I normally don't do?

I'd just like to be able to clear my name, because we can't lose any more wolves.

[Barkeep49]

Schmidty I don't think he's saying you are doing anything MORE so just that your general style is baddie whether you are good or bad. So not a whole lot you could defend from what he's saying I think.

[Alan T]

yeah, basically what I said yesterday is before circles of trust are built up, you only have two things to go on.. 1) a person's votes, 2) what they say and how they say it. (ie: play style in some cases).

The way you normally play makes it very different to tell the difference between when you are bad or good for me because you always come across as odd. Im not meaning this in a bad way in any way, I like that there are different types of play styles as it makes this game fun for me. I feel a similar way about Quick, at least in the games i have played with him.. It gets you so worked up that you cant tell if they are good or bad, so it makes you want to vote for them just to clear it out of your head.

I think for today, everything that Anxiety says just sinks him further in my books so its going to take alot to convince me to move my vote from him. However after today, the other two people I really have alot of doubts about are you and Tyrith. So unless people start to clear you, or you somehow clear yourself in my mind, I might vote for you tommorrow. Not necessarily because you have done things that are horrible, just there is a complete lack of anything that has added to my trust in you I guess so far.

Perhaps a vote on Anxiety here early on would help me have more trust in you, since its far easier to just slide in votes later on when the cards have been laid than earlier on when you put your opinions on the line.

[Barkeep49]

Alan I think all of that is well stated but would argue that despite there being quite a bit of time, at least from my perspective, voting for Anxiety here does not ally any concerns I might have about schmidty.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Alan I think all of that is well stated but would argue that despite there being quite a bit of time, at least from my perspective, voting for Anxiety here does not ally any concerns I might have about schmidty.

Well alot of my bigger concerns about his actions is most all of them from what I can remember have been late in the play, and fairly calculated to seemingly not do much harm to the bad guys if he was one of them. The only controversial thing he has done so far was that late move which could likely have been from wolf to wolf. (i believe he moved from mckerney to hoops, maybe I have that backwards). But even then at the time if mckerney was being lynched, moving off of a wolf at the last little bit could arguably make him look better. I guess what I want from him is a little more of what his thoughts are about folks, and perhaps putting his own stake in the ground to see where he is placing his loyalties. Not just waiting till 9pm EST on Monday night to make a decision based on whatever he bases his votes on.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety, going back to your reveal post #1091:

Night 2 – I sensed that someone I trusted was not what he appeared to be.

Night 3 (Last night) – Just the opposite. I sensed that someone I did not trust was not who he appeared to be.

Did you submit trust lists to SirFozzie? I'm trying to understand how you could have intuition based on who you (or the group) trusts if there is not an established trust list?

[hoopsguy]

Next question - has anyone else felt "eyes upon them" over the course of the game? If that is something coming from a enemy seer, perhaps someone else (who is not as intuitive as Anxiety claims to be) has experienced this sensation?

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Next question - has anyone else felt "eyes upon them" over the course of the game? If that is something coming from a enemy seer, perhaps someone else (who is not as intuitive as Anxiety claims to be) has experienced this sensation?

As far as I know, I have not had any night action interactions with anyone (seers, enemy seer, bodyguard, attempted kill, etc). If I have, then I have not received any PMs about it.

[st.cronin]

Well, if BK or CW or blade had gotten word of my "sniffing" nobody said anything. I didn't see any hint anywhere in the game that anybody's been aware of my "sniffing." The question of whether there is another seer is interesting; since I explicitly can't find the wizard, it seems plausible to me that there is another seer/sniffer who CAN find the wizard. I suggested around the time of Blade's reveal that it might be a combo seer/hunter role - that that's how the wizard gets killed, if this "hunter" finds the wizard at night. Or maybe he can find him one night, and kill him the next night.

[hoopsguy]

Oops - hit a wrong key.

Barkeep and Coffee - I must be missing something because I don't immediately see someone who can vouch for Anxiety's story but both of you have commented on this.

[st.cronin]

I think they just meant whoever "scanned" Anxiety, if that's what happened. It's possible that as a henchmen, and thus having wizard magic available, he was able to sense the scan in a way that BK and CW did not.

[hoopsguy]

So here is the information I have on people, based on role reveals:

1. Anxiety - witch, no clears
2. Barkeep - cleared by Cronin, matching role with Saldana
4. AlanT - hinted at role, no clears
6. Saldana - cleared by Cronin, matching role with Barkeep
7. Lathum - no clears
8. Cronin - Lawgiver/Henchman Seer, no clears
10. Ardent - no clears
11. Tyrith - brother of Blade?, no clears
12. Schmidty - no clears
13. Coffee Warlord - cleared by Cronin
14. Hoopsguy - bodyguard, cleared by Cronin (different scent, however)

In terms of whether or not to trust Cronin, I think I've gotten to the point in the game where if he has pulled the wool over my eyes I'll just tip my cap to him at the end of the game. Some of his interactions with me in terms of my role on Day 2 and Day 3 - asking for clarification to change his vote near D2 deadline, asking what the role name started with on D3 - seemed convincing to me that he was genuinely looking for information rather than trying to shape the game.

[st.cronin]

hoopsguy, what are your thoughts, if any, on Anxiety and Lathum?

[st.cronin]

btw I have not cleared Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

Edit to the above post - Saldana was not cleared by Cronin, but Barkeep and Saldana are vouching for each other.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum - had him fairly high in my trust list for his earlier statements that Blade and I were both clear. His questions towards me in the game seemed to indicate some knowledge that I was in fact being truthful with my role. That is knowledge that a select few wolf roles, or all the human roles, would possess. I've operated under the assumption that it was the former (select wolf role) rather than the latter. If we are able to determine that Anxiety is a wolf I would have to re-evaluate that proposition.

The erratic nature of Anxiety's play has made me suspect him (as noted, he has been all over the place in terms of trust/distrust on me), but it has also felt pretty easy up to this point for him to take the lead in the voting: 5-2 at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Edit to the above post - Saldana was not cleared by Cronin, but Barkeep and Saldana are vouching for each other.

As am I, as far as vouching for Saldana.

[st.cronin]

Do you think you know what role Lathum has?

[st.cronin]

dola

just a yes or no answer please

[hoopsguy]

Anyone have any thoughts on the "traitor to the pack" line back from Blade's Night 2 adventure? I haven't seen much comment on this at all, whether along the lines of my Tyrith scenario, dismissing it as reading too much into Blade's paraphrasing, or important but with some other interpretation.

[hoopsguy]

I did think I knew it as recently as Friday. I'm less sure now.

If I have to answer "yes/no" then the answer at this moment is "no".

[hoopsguy]

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.