The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[Young Drachma]

Wow, O'Donnell finally got a GOP nod. Third time is a charm, it seems.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Wow, O'Donnell finally got a GOP nod. Third time is a charm, it seems.

Wasn't she the nominee in 2008 against Biden?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Wasn't she the nominee in 2008 against Biden?

You are right. I was thinking of her and recalling she was severely underfunded and that the state GOP wasn't exactly in love with her either and somehow decided that meant she hadn't even made it out of a primary. My bad.

[larrymcg421]

Obama's most recent approval rating in DE was 55% (Aug. 5). I'm sure Biden's is even higher. They can both come to campaign if the race is close. I don't see the tea party making much headway there.

[Young Drachma]

17 years later, O'Donnell earns degree - David Catanese - POLITICO.com

[JPhillips]

In DE I don't think masturbation=adultery is going to play very well.

In NH RCP has Ayotte leading Hodes by 8 but Hodes leading Lamontagne by 3. NH has a very strong libertarian streak tempered by a lot of MA professionals in the south. Lamontagne could still win, but he'll be an underdog and the GOP will have to further stretch their money.

[Young Drachma]

Ex-aide: Christine O'Donnell a 'complete fraud' - David Catanese - POLITICO.com

Man, if the state party was doing that during the primary...I sure hope Sarah's prayer warriors are going to raise her lots of money to win. She'll need it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Whoops... a little slow.

Hard to see her winning in the general, but I'm not going to discount any of the tea party/Palin crowd in elections. Until proven otherwise, I think the enthusiasm gap (plus lack of a presidential race "headliner") makes them legit.

I'm largely in agreement as turnout means everything and a minority view can surprise, but O'Donnell's win has certainly put the Dems in much better shape. Rasmussen's last poll had Castle up +11, but Coons up +11 against O'Donnell.

[RainMaker]

Did Democrats crossover to vote for O'Donnell? I just can't fathom that Republicans thought nominating her was a good idea. Her background is real fucking shady and a Sarah Palin endorsement isn't going to carry her in a general election.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I think Rangel got off one of the better quotes I've seen in primary season, talking about his opponent who is the son of the man Rangel beat 40 years ago.
"He used to be nice young man," he said. "I think God has really blessed him with his good looks and his dad's name, and then God gave up on him."

[JPhillips]

Rangel is such a corrupt dick. Too bad he's going to be reelected.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Rangel is such a corrupt dick. Too bad he's going to be reelected.

I won't disagree with you on either point ... but I still thought he landed a good zinger no matter what else I might think of him

[larrymcg421]

Ayotte may yet pull this out. Lamontagne's lead is now down to 42.2-36.9 with only 22% in.

[JPhillips]

Yeah, it's just that I see him on local news a lot and this comment comes off as his typical entitlement bullshit. He just feels he's above a primary and that alone is enough to sour me even without all the likely illegal shit he's been doing.

[larrymcg421]

Wow...

Originally Posted by Fox News

Republican aides told Fox News Tuesday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee will not be funding O'Donnell's general election campaign, leaving it up to Palin and the Tea Party Express to do the heavy lifting.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Wow...

awesome. let's hope this extends to other candidates. make the koch brothers and armey pay out of pocket for them all.

[Swaggs]

Sounds like the RNC will not support O'Donnell.

It will be interesting to see what this does for her fundraising. I can see it hurting, but, in a way, it may rally the type of folks that are inclined to vote for her into giving a lot and working harder. Even more of a rebellion against the establishment, if you will.

I did hear something to the effect that she had like $20K on hand, while the democrat had over a million. I'm not sure how far money goes in Delaware (I assume the Philly market is both impactful in DE and expensive).

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Wow...

Interesting.

Do we take this to mean that the RNC likes its chances better using Palin and the Tea Party as branding over the Republican name? Or are they hoping that she looks like a loser and they don't have to deal with her in 2012?

If she somehow makes O'Donnell and the guy in Alaska (looks more likely than not) into Senators, she looks like a king-maker and vaults to the head of the class for the GOP in 2012.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

... and vaults to the head of the class for the GOP in 2012.

I'd say she's already at the head of the class, there's just a long time left until graduation

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Sounds like the RNC will not support O'Donnell.

It will be interesting to see what this does for her fundraising. I can see it hurting, but, in a way, it may rally the type of folks that are inclined to vote for her into giving a lot and working harder.

This.

[larrymcg421]

Hmm, apparently PPP has a poll coming out tomorrow morning showing Castle voters favor Coons over O'Donnell 44-28.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Hmm, apparently PPP has a poll coming out tomorrow morning showing Castle voters favor Coons over O'Donnell 44-28.

Speaking volumes about the sacks of shit backing Castle, but that's really not a big surprise. All the f'n RINO's want is Dem Lite, and that's not going to cut it.

[larrymcg421]

50% in and Ayotte has now taken the lead.

[stevew]

If the National Republican party thinks the primary was hijacked, what's to stop them from backing a 3rd party Castle run? Anyways, it's probably too late to get on the november ballot I'd think.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by stevew

If the National Republican party thinks the primary was hijacked, what's to stop them from backing a 3rd party Castle run? Anyways, it's probably too late to get on the november ballot I'd think.

I doubt Castle would be successful in that scenario. Lieberman was able to do it because the Republican was a single digit non factor. That wouldn't be the case with Coons. If Coons just kept the numbers he was polling at vs. Castle anyways, it'd probably be enough to win a three way race.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Speaking volumes about the sacks of shit backing Castle, but that's really not a big surprise. All the f'n RINO's want is Dem Lite, and that's not going to cut it.

That's ok, because Delaware is just going to get full Dem instead of "Dem Lite" instead. I'm sure the hardcore Republicans are happy about that.

[larrymcg421]

Also, because Castle gave up his seat, the Delaware At Large seat will be one of only 3 (maybe 4) House seats that the Dems actually pick up in November.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

That's ok, because Delaware is just going to get full Dem instead of "Dem Lite" instead. I'm sure the hardcore Republicans are happy about that.

If the voters of Delaware are that far out of their minds, then it really doesn't seem there was much chance to get anyone worthwhile out of them anyway.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a nice surprise & she'll shock the world in November. If not, at least someone worth at least half a damn gave it a shot.

[RainMaker]

What do you like so much about her Jon? I don't see much from a conservative standpoint that is attractive about her. Well at least fiscally.

[JPhillips]

She makes liberals angry. That's really the only qualification needed for a large part of the GOP.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

awesome. let's hope this extends to other candidates. make the koch brothers and armey pay out of pocket for them all.

Wow....

Just this morning, when driving into work, I was thinking about making a post in response to others' back-and-forth with Jon over the last few pages to basically argue against the idea that the Tea Party will eventually a) successfully drag the GOP rightwards into minority party status or b) split off from the GOP and become more-or-less a going concern as a legit third party, turning both them and the GOP into minority parties.

I still don't think either scenario will happen, because when the economy eventually improves most people will go back to ignoring politics and just voting (if they vote) for the R or the D each election, but I have to say the results of these primaries, and the GOP's response to them, certainly causes one to think....

[larrymcg421]

PPP: Coons 50, O' Donnell 34

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by SteveBollea

The thing is, speaking as the resident leftie/social democrat/dirty fucking hippie, she doesn't upset me. She's too obviously incompetent and just sad for me to get upset at her. I mean, Rand Paul gets me a little upset. O'Donnell? Not at all.

Maybe not angry, but liberals don't like her.

The point is that for a large portion of the GOP qualifications, experience, policy preferences, ethical lapses etc. don't matter. A winning candidate is one that clearly upsets the other tribe. That's all that matters.

[JonInMiddleGA]

U.S. Senator John Cornyn, Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has issued a statement in support of Tea Party Candidate Christine O'Donnell:

“Let there be no mistake: The National Republican Senatorial Committee – and I personally as the committee’s chairman – strongly stand by all of our Republican nominees, including Christine O’Donnell in Delaware.

I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees, I offered her my personal congratulations and let her know that she has our support. This support includes a check for $42,000 – the maximum allowable donation that we have provided to all of our nominees – which the NRSC will send to her campaign today."
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/KatiePa...rting_odonnell

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

a) successfully drag the GOP rightwards into minority party status

Methinks you might have that the wrong way around, we might actually be seeing some real leadership from them to move the country in the right direction for the first time in several years. The R's have gained the generic brand advantage already, even as the party shifts rightward. The more clear the actions & intentions of the left become, the more advantage the R's gain.

[larrymcg421]

Oh, let there be no mistake. I fully support the GOP getting fully behind O'Donnell and spending as much money as they think she needs. Anything that will cut into the money they'll spend in CA, NV, IL, CT, CO, WA, and WI is fine by me.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Maybe not angry, but liberals don't like her.
The point is that for a large portion of the GOP qualifications, experience, policy preferences, ethical lapses etc. don't matter. A winning candidate is one that clearly upsets the other tribe. That's all that matters.

So it's a party for morally bankrupt fools?

Stick them all on an island together and let them govern themselves. They'd deserve the mess they'd inevitably get themselves into.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Methinks you might have that the wrong way around, we might actually be seeing some real leadership from them to move the country in the right direction for the first time in several years. The R's have gained the generic brand advantage already, even as the party shifts rightward. The more clear the actions & intentions of the left become, the more advantage the R's gain.

"generic brand advantage" is meaningless

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

"generic brand advantage" is meaningless

You keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better. But check out the trending for a steady stream of R's with (alleged) independents and you'll see otherwise.

There's at worst a decent chance that the leftists are going to find themselves on an island with plenty of room, the rest of the country is abandoning that sinking ship at a steady clip.

[JPhillips]

But look at party approval ratings. The only thing worse than being a Dem is being a Republican.

The electorate is angry and they're going to punish the party in power, but there is at best conflicting data as to whether the country is really moving towards the platform of the far right.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

You keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better. But check out the trending for a steady stream of R's with (alleged) independents and you'll see otherwise.

There's at worst a decent chance that the leftists are going to find themselves on an island with plenty of room, the rest of the country is abandoning that sinking ship at a steady clip.

Generic brand advantage has always been meaningless. No matter who's the incumbent. That's a widely-known fact.

Take a look at the trending for R's with independents? Are you kidding? Look at Castle-voters with a 44-28 preference for O'Donnel's opponent (whose name escapes me right now). Look at the unfavorable ratings of Palin (for one example) with independents. Let alone someone like Angle or some of those other whackos.

Independents are not going to vote en masse for Tea Party candidates or hard-right Republicans. A small percentage of them might, but they're not all flocking to them.

Independents tend to fall somewhere in the center. Moving farther right only alienates them further.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But look at party approval ratings. The only thing worse than being a Dem is being a Republican.

The electorate is angry and they're going to punish the party in power, but there is at best conflicting data as to whether the country is really moving towards the platform of the far right.

Yep.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Look at Castle-voters with a 44-28 preference for O'Donnel's opponent (whose name escapes me right now).

Which speaks volumes about their true colors, and further affirms Castle as the RINO anyone paying attention knew he was already.

At the risk of repeating myself, what's the point in "winning" if you have to become the enemy to do it? That's not winning, that's surrender. And that's a behavior that's over.

The truth is, the further to the right we can push things, the bigger the advantage becomes. The left is demoralized, many of them realize that they've already failed & disheartened would-be voters don't show up at the polls. Independents know that the D's are a sinking ship as well, at worst they'll simply stay home. Meanwhile, R voters are invigorated by the likelihood of having more reliable candidates in 2010 and 2012.

As for the meaning of the generic poll, this is worth considering

Forty-seven percent (47%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Last week, Republicans held a 12-point lead, matching their largest advantage ever in Rasmussen Reports surveying.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

The Generic Ballot results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Which speaks volumes about their true colors, and further affirms Castle as the RINO anyone paying attention knew he was already.

Or rather, they are the true Republicans (what do you think the Republican Party was in the 50s, 60s, and 70s?) and the super small government, socially conservative (c'mon, O'Connell is against masturbation for God's sake!) folks are the RINOs.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by SteveBollea

The thing is, speaking as the resident leftie/social democrat/dirty fucking hippie

Wait a sec, I thought that was me....

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Methinks you might have that the wrong way around, we might actually be seeing some real leadership from them to move the country in the right direction for the first time in several years.

That's predicated on the assumption that a majority (or even an almost-majority) of Americans will agree that what the Tea Party espouses is the right direction for the country - after all, you still have to win majorities (in elections and in Congress) to change things. Given your well-documented contempt for the intelligence of the average American, I'm a little surprised that you think so many Americans will "see the light" in this manner.

And that's pretty much what I mean by it being a potential "minority party".

[albionmoonlight]

(1) At first, the Tea Party seemed to try hard to avoid the social conservative label. It wanted to honestly push for lower deficits and less spending. I guess that got boring. Now Palin and the Tea Party activists use their energy to push folks who want to use the Bible to tell me that I can't touch my penis. Sigh. I guess I wonder if the Tea Party was ever about anything more than that. The police power of the state all up in my business because the Bible told them so.

(2) Shit like this has consequences. I understand energizing the base. But do moderates really not matter at all? If not in 2010, what about beyond?

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

(1) At first, the Tea Party seemed to try hard to avoid the social conservative label. It wanted to honestly push for lower deficits and less spending. I guess that got boring. Now Palin and the Tea Party activists use their energy to push folks who want to use the Bible to tell me that I can't touch my penis. Sigh. I guess I wonder if the Tea Party was ever about anything more than that. The police power of the state all up in my business because the Bible told them so.

I think you have to remember that the Tea Party has never had formal leadership or a formal platform. It's not a party. I'm sure a lot of the people that showed up at those early rallies were all power fiscal responsibility, but the socially conservative republicans saw this disorganized "movement" as an opportunity. And now they own it - "Tea party" just means really conservative. Which kind of sucks for the true fiscal conservatives, whose crazy ideas about fiscal responsibility are now considered fringe and loopy. Good short-term wins for the Republicans with this strategy, but overall, it's better for the Democrats, who can now point to the tea party as the main opposition to their fiscal recklessness and lack of a plan on how to control things like health care costs. And they're going to win that battle because the "tea party" is just too goofy.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

(1) At first, the Tea Party seemed to try hard to avoid the social conservative label. It wanted to honestly push for lower deficits and less spending. I guess that got boring. Now Palin and the Tea Party activists use their energy to push folks who want to use the Bible to tell me that I can't touch my penis. Sigh. I guess I wonder if the Tea Party was ever about anything more than that. The police power of the state all up in my business because the Bible told them so.

The sad part is, I would not be surprised if a large number of people would like to have a christian theocracy in this country, which would not be a whole lot different than the soviet union, but, with a religious slant to it.

[flere-imsaho]

+1 to molson's post

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by SteveBollea

Fixed for accuracy. The truth is, a lot of people in this country don't have an issue with Iran's system of government. It just upsets them they're Muslims and not Christian. They'd be perfectly cool with "Christian Dominionism."

I can see that, but, I meant more the day to day life of a citizen, check points searching people for porn or alcohol, house searches for bible checks, camps for atheists or other threats to the 'state', stuff like that.