The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[JPhillips]

It's good to see the Libertarians finally realize that the Tea Party is largely composed of the most conservative elements of the GOP.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's good to see the Libertarians finally realize that the Tea Party is largely composed of the most conservative elements of the GOP.

I think the libertarians might rather conjecture that the Tea Partiers only believe they are conservative.

[JPhillips]

I guess I'm using conservative as it is in real life, not how it might be idealized.

[Passacaglia]

Pretty good article refuting Pastor Jones's reasons for buring a Koran. I quoted Part 3 since it has links to Parts 1 and 2.

Top Ten Reasons to Burn a Koran - A Muslim Responds Part III (video) - National Islam | Examiner.com

[Greyroofoo]

I always found it fascinating that an object that was probably mass-produced in a factory can be viewed as sacred.

[sterlingice]

Or an image that can easily be found online?

SI

[Greyroofoo]

Ya know, Pastor Jones may not be burning any books today, but our favorite Kansan may be picking up his slack!

[sterlingice]

Lemme guess- a Fred Phelps story?

SI

[stevew]

Someone needs to put the Ass in Kansas

[sterlingice]

I thought the point was that Fred Phelps already was "the Ass in Kansas"

SI

[larrymcg421]

Will the Republicans throw away an easy Senate pickup?

Castle (R) leads Coons (D) by 11 points.
Coons (D) leads O'Donnell (R) by 11 points.

Today's GOp primary poll from PPP (Which admittedly is a Dem polling firm, but one referenced on RCP):

O'Donnell 47, Castle 44

[JPhillips]

That race has hardly been polled because everyone assumed Castle would win easily, but after the Tea Party Express, Palin and DeMint all backed O'Donnell she could win ala Miller in Alaska.

And if she does she'll be a severe underdog in a state the GOP had locked up.

[ISiddiqui]

Sometimes I just hate the Tea Partiers for shit like what may happen in Delaware.

[JPhillips]

What would be interesting is if Castle ran as an independent as he'd probably be the favorite. Who would he caucus with after all the RINO shit he's gotten over the last few months?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And if she does she'll be a severe underdog in a state the GOP had locked up.

What's the point in "winning" a seat if all you're getting is what one pundit colorfully described as "Olympia Snowe in drag"?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

What's the point in "winning" a seat if all you're getting is what one pundit colorfully described as "Olympia Snowe in drag"?

Senate control. He'll still vote for the Republican Senate leader, just like all the Blue Dog Dems vote Nancy Pelosi for Speaker.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Senate control. He'll still vote for the Republican Senate leader, just like all the Blue Dog Dems vote Nancy Pelosi for Speaker.

It's control of the nation's direction that matters, not control of the Senate. Better to lose with honor than to win with none.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It's control of the nation's direction that matters, not control of the Senate. Better to lose with honor than to win with none.

Losing with honor still makes one a loser.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by lungs

Losing with honor still makes one a loser.

Then so be it, winning in name only isn't a win either. And given Castle's voting record, that's what electing him amounts to.

[JPhillips]

You do realize that there's not enough of your type to ever hold a majority?

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Then so be it, winning in name only isn't a win either. And given Castle's voting record, that's what electing him amounts to.

I guess being that you are from the south, you are used to being on the losing side of...... well..... almost everything in the history of this country besides college football.

[DaddyTorgo]

AHAHAHAHA

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by SteveBollea

...and if not for the federal government forcing integration, they wouldn't be winning in football. That's right, it's only thanks to us Yankees the SEC is any good.

LOL!!

[larrymcg421]

I sure hope more people share Jon's outlook. Perhaps the only thing that can save the Dems is the GOP fucking everything up.

I mean, how the hell does Harry Reid currently have a lead? That makes no sense given the nature of this election cycle, and it's solely due to the GOP nominating a lunatic. Similarly, Blumenthal has a big scandal and is now cruising because the GOP nominated Linda McMahon.

And now I see polls showing the NH primary is tightening, potentially costing the GOP yet another sure seat.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Review Castle's lengthy voting record.
RemoveRINO Mike Castle

Explain to me why on earth I'd want him re-elected? Just because he claims to be an (R)? A (D) can be just as wrong as this sorry SOB yet there about a couple of dozen of D's seated at the moment who are actually right more often.

[JPhillips]

Because the things you care about require some sort of majority and the hoped for Confederate Party will never have enough votes to pass anything.

I'd love to see a list of Senators you think cast the right votes often enough and then a plan for how you'll get to 51. The one good thing with a two party system is that it does need differing ideologies to form a majority.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd love to see a list of Senators you think cast the right votes often enough and then a plan for how you'll get to 51.

Okay, with the caveat that this is really a shortcut way of answering your question. I'm taking a quick brain break from a really unexpected emergency project that a client handed over after hours tonight & I can't really get away from that for much longer than it takes for a fresh pot of coffee to finish brewing.

With the shortcut, I'm sure there are going to be some people included that I wouldn't normally consider reliable (McCain is an obvious example) but I'm just looking for a baseline, working from the 2009 ratings based on 25 notable votes as detailed at
2009 ACU Ratings :: Senate Standouts « The American Conservative Union

There were 10 senators who got a 100% conservative score, a total of 33 who scored 80% or higher. There were 24 D's who got a 0% score, so I'll write those off largely as lost causes.

I'm not arguing that 51 100%ers is a doable number in the upcoming election, although it's certainly an admirable goal, the math just isn't there.

It's also not something that happens overnight, but steady improvement is a valid goal, to turn 80s into 90s, 90s into 100s, and especially turning sub 60s into 80s. Castle's 56% score (only 1% better than the cellar-dwelling Cao of LA) in the House simply isn't a significant enough movement for me to celebrate, not when there's a potential 80 on the table. Hell, there's D's that are within spitting distance of Castle and some (such as Bright-AL) who are as high as C72%.

Just because we aren't going to get there overnight doesn't mean that shouldn't be the goal, that it isn't worth striving for, or that it's impossible.

If 4/5 votes is relatively reliable, there's 33 now (with this imperfect quickie benchmark) move another 5-7 up, improve 10 in the middle ranges to 2/3 or 1/2 C, knock out a few of the zeroes to get an occasional unexpected vote ... you don't have to have 51 rock solid in order to win a fight, you get as many as you can & keep fighting for more, steady improvement everywhere else that's possible.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by lungs

I guess being that you are from the south, you are used to being on the losing side of...... well..... almost everything in the history of this country besides college football.

A-fucking-men. The South has been wrong on everything that matters.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Okay, with the caveat that this is really a shortcut way of answering your question. I'm taking a quick brain break from a really unexpected emergency project that a client handed over after hours tonight & I can't really get away from that for much longer than it takes for a fresh pot of coffee to finish brewing.

With the shortcut, I'm sure there are going to be some people included that I wouldn't normally consider reliable (McCain is an obvious example) but I'm just looking for a baseline, working from the 2009 ratings based on 25 notable votes as detailed at
2009 ACU Ratings :: Senate Standouts « The American Conservative Union

There were 10 senators who got a 100% conservative score, a total of 33 who scored 80% or higher. There were 24 D's who got a 0% score, so I'll write those off largely as lost causes.

I'm not arguing that 51 100%ers is a doable number in the upcoming election, although it's certainly an admirable goal, the math just isn't there.

It's also not something that happens overnight, but steady improvement is a valid goal, to turn 80s into 90s, 90s into 100s, and especially turning sub 60s into 80s. Castle's 56% score (only 1% better than the cellar-dwelling Cao of LA) in the House simply isn't a significant enough movement for me to celebrate, not when there's a potential 80 on the table. Hell, there's D's that are within spitting distance of Castle and some (such as Bright-AL) who are as high as C72%.

Just because we aren't going to get there overnight doesn't mean that shouldn't be the goal, that it isn't worth striving for, or that it's impossible.

If 4/5 votes is relatively reliable, there's 33 now (with this imperfect quickie benchmark) move another 5-7 up, improve 10 in the middle ranges to 2/3 or 1/2 C, knock out a few of the zeroes to get an occasional unexpected vote ... you don't have to have 51 rock solid in order to win a fight, you get as many as you can & keep fighting for more, steady improvement everywhere else that's possible.

But the point is if you get that 51st Senator, it won't be a 56% person setting the agenda, but someone closer to that 80-90%. If you don't then it will be more of Harry Reid setting the agenda. I mean, getting an 80-90% candidate to win in Delaware is a pipe dream. Even in the best possible conditions for the GOP (see: now) it's just not going to happen.

You seem to be arguing that the GOP should ignore geopolitics and just field the most conservative candidates possible everywhere. That's just political suicide.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

You seem to be arguing that the GOP should ignore geopolitics and just field the most conservative candidates possible everywhere. That's just political suicide.

It's also a primary (no pun intended) way to prevent the party from rotting from within, which is a long-term issue which cannot be overlooked.

Having Castle's ilk associated with the party in any way ultimately does more harm than good, even if he's right more often than Coons.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It's also a primary (no pun intended) way to prevent the party from rotting from within, which is a long-term issue which cannot be overlooked.

Having Castle's ilk associated with the party in any way ultimately does more harm than good, even if he's right more often than Coons.

So what's best for the party is to have a real small minority with no power? Interesting strategy.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So what's best for the party is to have a real small minority with no power? Interesting strategy.

Seriously. The idea that there is an electable "potential 80" in DELAWARE is just smoking something. And, of course, there are some D's in spitting distance of Castle. They mostly come from the South, which is far different geopolitically than, say, the Mid-Atlantic.

[larrymcg421]

How the Senate race is shaping up:

Dem: 44 Safe or Not Up
GOP: 34 Safe or Not Up
GOP should easily win: AK, IN, IA, LA, NC
Dems should easily win: NY, OR

That puts the margin at 46 Dem, 39 GOP

With 16 seats up for grabs, Dems need to win 4 to retain the majority (since they have VP).

Seats they should win: WV (has tightened, but Manchin has been reliably 50% or higher), CT (McMahon is just a bad fit for the state and Blumenthal did a terrific job of weathering a scandal)

The remaining 13 seats would be split up as

6 Toss Up (CA, CO, IL, NV, WA, WI)
7 Lean GOP (DE, FL, KY, MO, NH, OH, PA)

Depending on today's primary results, DE and NH could potentially move from Lean GOP all the way to Lean Dem and all but assure the Dems retain the majority.

The other GOP leaners are probably not in play at this point, but several of the toss ups are in very blue territory. If the GOP fucks up DE and NH today, then the Dems could potentially end up with 54-55 seats, which would be nothing short of a miracle given the nature of this election cycle.

[JPhillips]

I was looking at projected turnout numbers in DE and I think Castle is in big trouble. They are expecting 30K GOP voters. With the enthusiasm on the far right and Palin/Tea Party support getting 15001 O'Donnell voters out doesn't seem at all out of the question.

Don't be surprised if the Tea Party also wins in NH. It's not as close going in, but turnout for that election will also be small and the Tea Partiers have shown a knack at winning in low turnout primaries.

[larrymcg421]

Today's RCP polls:

CT: Blumenthal 51, McMahon 45
WA: Murray 50, Rossi 41 (this one is a surprise, as all other polls had this much closer. If Rossi can't win this year, he might as well call it a career.)
FL: Rubio 43, Crist 27, Meek 21 (Meek is eating into Crist and Rubio is walking away with this)
NV: Angle 45, Reid 44
OH: Portman 48, Fisher 41
PA: Toomey 47, Sestak 41

Not the worst polling day for Dems. FL is a lost cause, but Fisher and Sestak are at least hanging in there.

[molson]

I wonder if France gets much criticism in the European media for stuff like this, which really puts our silly Koran burning/mosque location silliness to shame:

France nears ban on full Muslim veils - World news - Europe - msnbc.com

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by molson

I wonder if France gets much criticism in the European media for stuff like this, which really puts our silly Koran burning/mosque location silliness to shame:

France nears ban on full Muslim veils - World news - Europe - msnbc.com

I think there was a thread on this a while back -- pretty disgusting.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Today's RCP polls:

CT: Blumenthal 51, McMahon 45
WA: Murray 50, Rossi 41 (this one is a surprise, as all other polls had this much closer. If Rossi can't win this year, he might as well call it a career.)
FL: Rubio 43, Crist 27, Meek 21 (Meek is eating into Crist and Rubio is walking away with this)
NV: Angle 45, Reid 44
OH: Portman 48, Fisher 41
PA: Toomey 47, Sestak 41

Not the worst polling day for Dems. FL is a lost cause, but Fisher and Sestak are at least hanging in there.

Some of these polls are transitioning from registered voter to likely voter. Nate Silver has shown that the CT race really hasn't changed from the last ten point lead, but the switch from registered to likely gives the GOP candidate a few points.

Makes it kind of a pain in the ass to really see what's going on.

[larrymcg421]

47.1% reporting: O'Donnell 55.4, Castle 44.6
7.3% reporting: Lamontagne 50.0, Ayotte 33.1

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So what's best for the party is to have a real small minority with no power? Interesting strategy.

If having power means accomplishing nothing that's truly important then what's the point?

[JPhillips]

75% in:

O'Donnell 54
Castle 46

Thanks for the Senate hold Tea Partiers.

[larrymcg421]

The race has tightened a little bit in DE, but is it too late for Castle?

77.5% reporting: O' Donnell 53.9, Castle 46.1

[JonInMiddleGA]

From the obit of a retired USAF veteran this week
"In lieu of flowers the family respectfully asks that donations be sent to the American Cancer Society, or to the campaign of anybody who is running against President Barack Obama in 2012."

Obit: In lieu of flowers, donate to anybody running against Obama - WIS News 10 - Columbia, South Carolina |

[larrymcg421]

10% in and Lamontagne still leads Ayotte 48.7-33.8

I haven't seen any Hodes-Lamontagne, but I've got to think he'll be leading her if she wins the nominations.

[JPhillips]

AP calls it for O'Donnell.

Watch out DE masturbaters.

[JPhillips]

There' no doubt the GOP is going to do well in Nov, but it's damn near impossible to see the Senate change hands if DE goes Dem.

Ideological purity FTW.

[Swaggs]

A.P. calls Delaware for O'Donnell.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by SteveBollea

Er, Lamontage's a dude.

Also, I'd like to thank folks like JiminMiddleGA for continued control of the Senate.

It would be an misguided statement at best to assume anything regarding the November election given what we've seen thus far.

[Swaggs]

Whoops... a little slow.

Hard to see her winning in the general, but I'm not going to discount any of the tea party/Palin crowd in elections. Until proven otherwise, I think the enthusiasm gap (plus lack of a presidential race "headliner") makes them legit.

[larrymcg421]

Yeah if the GOP can't take DE, then the Dems have a fairly good grip on 49 seats. They'd have to lose all 6 toss up states. If the GOP screws up NH as well, then the Dems are basically freerolling with their majority from there.

*It's not impossible for the GOP to win in WV or CT, but I don't see it happening.