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View Poll Results: How is Obama doing? (poll started 6/6) | |||
Great - above my expectations | 18 | 6.87% | |
Good - met most of my expectations | 66 | 25.19% | |
Average - so so, disappointed a little | 64 | 24.43% | |
Bad - sold us out | 101 | 38.55% | |
Trout - don't know yet | 13 | 4.96% | |
Voters: 262. You may not vote on this poll |
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09-02-2010, 07:23 PM | #11001 | |
Sick as a Parrot
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Surfers Paradise, Australia
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Quote:
Then the researchers need to take a look at the recent Australian election. The outgoing government went from early 2007 to August 2010. 1) Despite the GFC, the government piloted Australia through that time and avoided any official recession 2) unemployment peaked at 5.8% and is now down to 5.3% 3) despite one of the largest stimulus packages worldwide, government finances will return to surplus in 2012/13 4) debt will peak then at 6% of GDP 5) debt predicted to be eliminated in 2014/15 6) growth over the last 12 months was 3.3% 7) that's despite the fact that official interest rates have already been increased four times to 4.5% That's a reasonably competent performance, right? But despite all this the opposition election campaign had some considerable success in pushing the argument that the outgoing government was "the worst we have ever had" and had mired the country in awful debt. In the election of 2 weeks ago the government lost 22% of its seats in parliament and the election was a dead heat with 72 seats each (was previously 88 to 57) I'm afraid I can't share your belief in the rationality of the electorate and the ineffectiveness of campaigning. In fairness, a couple of months ago I would have agreed with you and even argued that Australians could never throw out a government that had performed so competently through the GFC (a visiting Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Lauriate in economics, described it as "the best government performance of any industrilaised nation). But I was (almost) wrong (we have a dead heat but the government may still be able to cobble together a minority government with the Greens and independants). Last edited by Mac Howard : 09-02-2010 at 08:00 PM. |
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09-02-2010, 08:04 PM | #11002 |
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Man, Mac- you just made me jealous to have that sort of government
SI
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09-02-2010, 08:08 PM | #11003 | |
Sick as a Parrot
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Surfers Paradise, Australia
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Quote:
We may not have it anymore We may have, as Prime Minister, Phoney Abbott, formerly known as the Mad Monk, who thinks the internet is something to do with ladies' hairdressing and has an economics degree that we beleive came in a cornflakes packet. On the other hand we do have Rupert Murdoch who owns roughly half of the Australian newspapers all of which, bar one, ran a Fox News style anti-government campaign and advised their readers to vote the government out on election day. Last edited by Mac Howard : 09-02-2010 at 08:20 PM. |
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09-02-2010, 08:14 PM | #11004 | |
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Quote:
He'd still be among them because contrary to what people like to spout, the economy isn't the only thing that matters to a great many people. Hell, it's no more than one of my top 4-5 (more equal than some of the other perhaps) issues and I'm probably one of the most straight forward "what's mine is mine" and "there's no such thing as enough money, much less too much" people you'll ever meet.
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09-02-2010, 08:27 PM | #11005 | |
Sick as a Parrot
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Surfers Paradise, Australia
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Quote:
Not a lot of voter rationality there, though, Steve. Some 400,000 (around 6 million in American numbers) abandoned the government because they weren't able to push the carbon trading bill through the Senate - because the Greens opposed it, not once but three times !!! So who did these people vote for - the Greens! How daft is that? I should point out that I've never voted for this party ever before in my life. But the world hit a brick wall a couple of years ago, Australia jumped it effortlessly and is now growing healthily while the rest of the world is still struggling through the rubble. That's got to be worth a second term by any rational standards. And Rudd was a prat anyway, overwhelmed by hubris, his party knew that in spades, and the Aussie population were just waking up to it. Last edited by Mac Howard : 09-02-2010 at 08:34 PM. |
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09-02-2010, 08:38 PM | #11006 | ||
Sick as a Parrot
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Surfers Paradise, Australia
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Quote:
Not so much to appease them but to avoid legislation that would have a severe impact on industry through electricity prices. It wasn't good enough for the Greens - so they stopped it altogether! Government has to act responsibly but that has never been a problem for the Greens. Quote:
Gillard (the exiting Prime Minister) did warn disaffected ALP voters that a protest vote for the Greens would let Abbott in. It's not rocket science and was probably the only thing she got right in the entire campaign But going back to my original point: having very good economic figures does not guarantee you a second term - it simply gets forgotten - and it's perfectly possible to overcome the good news with an effective negative campaign. You guys value the good numbers because you suffer some very bad ones. Had you experienced good ones then, like the Australians, you would probably have ignored them and concentrated on the failed (relatively) health reforms etc. Your average voter, as Churchill described, is a little bit like that ("the strongest argument against democracy is an hour with your average voter") Last edited by Mac Howard : 09-02-2010 at 09:18 PM. |
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09-04-2010, 08:39 AM | #11007 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Nice for the election, should help with some votes if the Dems can agree on the approach. Not alot of details yet. My vote is to give it all to small businesses.
FOXNews.com - Officials: Obama to Link Tax Plan to Hiring Quote:
Last edited by Edward64 : 09-04-2010 at 08:39 AM. |
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09-04-2010, 10:56 AM | #11008 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jun 2007
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I would never want to be president. Look at the difference of two years:
vs. He looks about 10-12 years older in just two years. |
09-04-2010, 04:12 PM | #11009 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Alabama
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I wonder how much of that is makeup/hair dye
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09-05-2010, 08:30 AM | #11010 |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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09-05-2010, 09:13 AM | #11011 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Bush before and after pictures are kindof similar and Clinton you could really see it.
SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
09-05-2010, 12:13 PM | #11012 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
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It may age you quickly, but with the incredible medical care they receive they also live longer than the average male.
That or they're secret lizard men immune to human disease.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
09-06-2010, 08:08 AM | #11013 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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What a headache. Free speech vs political realities.
FOXNews.com - Afghans Protest U.S. Church's Plan to Burn Koran on 9/11 Quote:
Last edited by Edward64 : 09-06-2010 at 08:08 AM. |
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09-06-2010, 08:36 AM | #11014 |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Little surprised to see Rand Paul's numbers increasing given his PR goofs. This is a terrible omen for the Democrats to see a guy who wouldn't win under normal conditions increasing his lead over the Dem candidate.
Rand Paul Leads in Kentucky Polling - Washington Wire - WSJ |
09-06-2010, 08:56 AM | #11015 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
The rest of the world needs to be educated enough to realize that it's not like the 18 year-old in the last paragraph said, that it's just a bunch of looney individuals doing this. Barring that we should just pass a law forbidding desecration of any religion's holy books I guess. I dunno.
__________________
Get bent whoever hacked my pw and changed my signature. |
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09-06-2010, 09:01 AM | #11016 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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09-06-2010, 09:02 AM | #11017 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: The State of Insanity
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Define "Any religion"..
Does the Flying Spaghetti Monster (may you be touched by his noodly appendage) get the same benefit as Islam? Does this touch on Government seperation between church and state?
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09-06-2010, 09:32 AM | #11018 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jun 2012
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Quote:
Seriously? We should change our fundamental rights of speech so as not to offend the easily offended? Maybe the far-right has a point about certain things.
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09-06-2010, 09:33 AM | #11019 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I think that any private individual/group should have the First Amendment right to burn whatever "holy" book they want.
The government should not be in the business of burning Korans. But it should also not be in the business of telling me that I can't burn them. |
09-06-2010, 10:09 AM | #11020 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
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I think DT was being ironic.
Amazing how this guy can get so much publicity for a small event that probably won't happen due to fire code violations. Scream loud enough and someone's bound to put you on TV.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
09-06-2010, 10:30 AM | #11021 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Yeah - I was being ironic. Or exasperated...or I dunno.
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09-06-2010, 10:41 AM | #11022 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Parañaque, Philippines
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Quote:
The nutters burning the books and the nutters blowing shit up should just find their own little island in the middle of nowhere and leave everyone else alone.
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Come and see. |
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09-06-2010, 12:00 PM | #11023 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: St. Louis
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09-06-2010, 12:05 PM | #11024 |
"Dutch"
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Tampa, FL
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What does this have to do with President Obama?
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09-06-2010, 12:20 PM | #11025 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Probably just anticipating the insertion of his two cents worth on the subject. (unless of course Rahm managed to lock him in his office)
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 09-06-2010 at 12:20 PM. |
09-06-2010, 01:23 PM | #11026 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2005
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Quote:
He also wants to spend another $50 billion in infrastructure spending. Obama to propose massive rebuilding package - Politics - White House - msnbc.com |
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09-06-2010, 02:30 PM | #11027 |
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I dunno - this is more a catchall "current events and politics thread" now i guess. and insofar as it relates to islam and our relations with islamic nations an argument could be made.
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09-06-2010, 02:31 PM | #11028 | |
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Quote:
Well considering that the vast majority of economists believe the first stimulus wasn't big enough...it's a start...
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09-06-2010, 03:01 PM | #11029 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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He'll have to deal with the political/military/propoganda ramifications in Afghanistan if this escalates. Called a muslim in this country, called an infidel in Afghanistan, can't win.
Last edited by Edward64 : 09-06-2010 at 03:02 PM. |
09-06-2010, 03:16 PM | #11030 | |
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Quote:
Massive? Both this and the payroll tax are middlin policies and terrible politics. But that seems to be the norm from this crew.
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09-06-2010, 03:17 PM | #11031 | |
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Quote:
Yep. "Oh we're afraid to go big so we're just going to plop right in the middle and fail."
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09-06-2010, 03:20 PM | #11032 |
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Imagine if instead of a holiday for businesses on the payroll tax the holiday went to workers. It would be better policy in a demand crisis like we're in and it would force the GOP to vote against a tax cut for every worker in America. It would probably be too late to show up in paychecks before November, but extra money in people's paychecks also isn't bad politics.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers Last edited by JPhillips : 09-06-2010 at 03:20 PM. |
09-06-2010, 03:34 PM | #11033 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
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Quote:
Most economists meaning.... Paul Krugman? As he seems to be the left economist most on the side of the old Rovian statement of "deficits don't matter" (which is great to say up until the point that they do start to matter - say hi to Greece). Considering that the chances of a double dip recession are very small: Potential for Double-Dip Recession Seems Small - NYTimes.com I don't think we necessarily need to go full on we need one more $1 trillion stimulus!!1!! Is the growth slow? Yes. Is it cause for panic? Only if you are thinking more about the political short term than the economic long term. However, I do think an upgrade to infrastructure is a VERY good place to spend money for future economic growth. So, yeah, I'd say $50 mil is just right about now.
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09-06-2010, 03:45 PM | #11034 |
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I've heard that the chances of a double-dip are a lot higher than that (say 33% or so)
Any many more economists than just Krugman have said it was too small. Last edited by DaddyTorgo : 09-06-2010 at 03:45 PM. |
09-06-2010, 03:52 PM | #11035 |
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You're mistaken that Krugman believes deficits don't matter. He's specifically said just the opposite, but in this demand crisis he also believes that we need something to spur the flow of capital. Growth is way too slow to get out of the unemployment crisis in any reasonable amount of time and there's very good reason to worry that growth will further slow as stimulus funds slow.
Long term I think deficits matter a lot, it's why I was opposed to the large structural deficits of the Bush years, but in a demand crisis everything tells me we need to increase employment or we'll be chasing tax dollars from a shrinking work force. As long as hundreds of billions of dollars are drained from the budget through lower tax revenue balancing the budget means further reducing the money flowing into the economy. Right now we need more demand. I'd differ from Krugman in that I do think we need some sort of grand bargain for deficit reduction. We can't solve the long term outlook without a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. The problem is I don't think the GOP will agree to any tax increases which means there's no realistic way to balance the budget.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
09-06-2010, 03:57 PM | #11036 |
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Here's the problem.
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09-06-2010, 04:05 PM | #11037 |
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I'm all about some infrastructure, but this rebuild every fucking road and bridge and highway at once project is annoying. Plus it is a bit bullshit how some state lie ohio can not properly maintain their roads(from my perspective) and now are seemingly redoing every stretch with govt money.
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09-06-2010, 05:35 PM | #11038 | |
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Quote:
Or maybe they love lower taxes because Ohio politcians are just a bunch of corrupt crooks. |
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09-06-2010, 06:35 PM | #11039 |
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Ohio is the poster child for why term limits don't fix legislative problems.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
09-06-2010, 08:06 PM | #11040 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
No doubt. On the other hand, using a 1930's style jobs programs to revive an early 21st-century economy might have its problems. Back in the 1930s, building lots of roads was likely to have more of an immediate and beneficial economic impact because 1) those were the sorts of manual-labor jobs that the unemployed had once had, and 2) the US manufacturing sector was so huge, the money spent by those taking the jobs circulated within the US economy. Now, though, we have a service- and information-based economy and a small manufacturing sector. Most of those who lost their jobs in the last few years were not roadbuilders, and unless the economic situation turns so dire that they are willing to abandon all hope of remaining in the middle class, they are not going to take jobs as road-builders. And even if they do take those jobs, much of the money that they spend will go for manufactured products made outside the US. Maybe Krugman is right, and the reason why the stimulus has not revived the economy is that it wasn't big enough. Maybe, though, it's because, in a service-dominated economy that imports its manufactured goods, traditional Keynesian expenditure on infrastructure will get you better infrastructure, but not a more general economic revival. Can't say that I know the answer to that question.
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09-06-2010, 08:38 PM | #11041 |
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Most economists think the stimulus did exactly what was expected, raise GDP by a few points. The problem was that Obama's own team said there was at least a 2.5 trillion gap in output and that was filled by 800 bn in stimulus, 40% of which were tax cuts. 500 bn spread over two years just wasn't enough, even if it was all spent on high multiplier expenditures(which it wasn't).
Our current recession is largely a housing decline with severe unemployment for those without a college degree. For those with a college degree it hasn't been anything worse than a normal recession. The undereducated, though, are really suffering and those people could be put to work on roads or fixing schools or park maintenance, etc. It won't happen instantly and they'll be hiccups, but we have a large undereducated workforce waiting to be given jobs. We can't fix everything, but there is work that needs doing and people who need work.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
09-06-2010, 10:29 PM | #11042 | |
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Quote:
Now do you actually have numbers for this or are you talking out of your ass again? |
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09-06-2010, 10:47 PM | #11043 |
Pro Starter
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Part of the problem with the infrastructure spending is that it has been staggered. I sell to companies in the construction sector and they are needing more work. The problem lies in that some companies get the work, but have plenty of time to get the work done. The result is that they are not hiring any new workers because their current labor force can get the work done.
The other side of the equation is that unlike the past, we do not have money circulating amongst ourselves. Since manufacturing has moved overseas, we are sending our dollars offshore. The result is deficit spending is not a multiplier, it is merely additive. The fact is, unless we produce more wealth with our services and developments, we will run a deficit and things will get worse unless we bring more manufacturing jobs back. Unfortunately, we are not in a manufacturing friendly environment. |
09-06-2010, 11:20 PM | #11044 |
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zing
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09-06-2010, 11:50 PM | #11045 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pro Starter
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Well here's a chart I found at Federal State Local Public Spending United States 2010 - Charts Tables History . Sources can be found at the site.
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09-07-2010, 12:08 AM | #11046 | |
Hall Of Famer
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Quote:
Bingo. The Stimulus was sold as a OMG if we don't do this we're all going to Hell in a hand basket and it's Great Depression II!! Well, we spent a significant amount and we didn't go into a depression. Job accomplished. I don't think a $50 bil infrastructure bill is a bad idea, but I also don't believe that going significantly more is a good idea, especially since it seems any tightening our belts in the future with respect to deficits isn't going to happen.
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09-07-2010, 12:34 AM | #11047 | |
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Quote:
If we don't go more then it's going to be a hell of a lot longer and more painful climb out of the economy that we're in now.
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09-07-2010, 08:15 AM | #11048 | |
Head Coach
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Now from Petraeus ...
Pastor weighing plans to burn Qurans amid U.S. warnings - CNN.com Quote:
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09-07-2010, 08:19 AM | #11049 | ||
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Quote:
Here's just one article on the chances of a double dip. I've seen more, but this was tops on one of my homepage-tabs this morning. http://www.pionline.com/article/2010...TSUB/309069972 Quote:
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09-07-2010, 08:19 AM | #11050 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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$200B + $100B + 50B = $350B so far. Be interesting to see how this plays out in the election.
Obama slated to introduce new business tax cut - Sep. 7, 2010 Quote:
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