10-27-2006, 11:44 AM | #1051 | |
General Manager
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Quote:
Yes, please do. |
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10-27-2006, 11:44 AM | #1052 |
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10-27-2006, 11:45 AM | #1053 |
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Alan, as long as you are committed to staying on Cronin today we are not going to agree on this vote. And, at some point, we are going to have to figure out what to do about that problem because if we are both STARS then I doubt the zombies are going to help us resolve our dispute.
As you have pointed out, tonight is the night that the zombies can convert. I have no interest in putting our day vote on someone I feel is more likely to be STARS than anyone else in the game (excluding me). |
10-27-2006, 11:46 AM | #1054 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Things I know for sure:
AlanT is not the police chief. Hoopsguy is not umbrella. |
10-27-2006, 11:54 AM | #1055 | |||
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My initial comment to you regarding my thoughts about you: Quote:
There was some going back and forth, but based on your moves, I decided to ask you this question to get your feelings for some other players (somewhat probing you just to see what I felt about you). You never responded to this question. Quote:
A later post, when I was a bit frustrated by you, and mentioned it, but you never responded to this either. Quote:
These are the posts I had numbered in my notepad file for "clues" for me to look back at in regards to you. I'm guessing there were more, but your lack of response is what got my interests initially. |
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10-27-2006, 11:55 AM | #1056 | |
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I didn't say my vote couldn't move. I said prove to me why someone else is more likely a zombie (which is different than proving that someone has a chance of not being stars which Im pretty sure Fouts isnt) |
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10-27-2006, 11:56 AM | #1057 |
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10-27-2006, 11:57 AM | #1058 |
Unregistered
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Damn, 22 pages and it's Day 2? Can you guys like slow down on the posting so I can take down notes? Geez...
Last edited by Lorena : 10-27-2006 at 12:00 PM. Reason: Because I CAN :D |
10-27-2006, 11:59 AM | #1059 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
I think somebody needs to review the day 1 vote. |
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10-27-2006, 12:00 PM | #1060 | |
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This is the point we keep getting stuck on. There isn't really any proof for anyone else being a zombie. Not conclusive anyway. This is why I think we need to turn our attention to others and see what shakes out. |
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10-27-2006, 12:02 PM | #1061 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Quote:
The first and third posts are not questions. Something like the second one was asked several times, and I thought I explained it like this: Basically, I didn't have any opinion on ANYBODY. The only thing I had to go on was who voted first. |
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10-27-2006, 12:03 PM | #1062 |
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The fact that both you and Lathum voted hoops to start with? You know as well as I do that day 1 votes are red herrings when involving team on team votes. Thats a fine time to place a vote for later proof to say well i couldnt be bad, so and so voted for me. Just like Lathum's vote in my mind doesn't make me think its less likely that hoops is umbrella, your vote doesnt disassociate you and him in my mind either. |
10-27-2006, 12:05 PM | #1063 | |
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Actually you elaborated a bit on first vs early voters and such, and thats what led me to ask you that question about the early voters which you avoided. This topic doesn't help me much today so I'm not really too worried about getting the answer now, but you wanted to know the things that lead up to my distrust of you during day 1, so I was just showing how making statements then not responding to the follow up questions just didn't help things for you. |
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10-27-2006, 12:10 PM | #1064 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
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No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later. Some people like to make this game way too hard. |
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10-27-2006, 12:11 PM | #1065 | |
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No, I wanted you so stop saying that I was being evasive and not answering questions. I have been completely upfront about my strategic thinking since day 1. |
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10-27-2006, 12:13 PM | #1066 | |
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No, you asked for my reasons for voting you. I gave them to you based on my feelings based day by day. You then argued that you hadn't evaded my questions and asked me to show you what posts made me feel that way. So i did. |
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10-27-2006, 12:14 PM | #1067 | |
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I guess I just like a challenge for myself |
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10-27-2006, 12:19 PM | #1068 | |
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Quote:
If that's the best you came up with, then clearly I was not being evasive. Go back and reread day 1 with an open mind. I was getting questions from everybody. I really think you are also stars, but you are really being obstinate. |
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10-27-2006, 12:22 PM | #1069 |
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10-27-2006, 12:24 PM | #1070 | |
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Quote:
Keep in mind, I didn't vote for you despite being frustrated by you. It just put you on my radar. I told you the things that added to it in later days that more-cemented my feelings about you. Like I said, I'm not closed minded, right now Im open to better suggestions with better proof. So far all I have heard though is campaigns that are as likely to lynch a seer or PC as they are to get a zombie, which is not a good plan in my mind. I already have said what I think the best play for today is (including even my own lynching if people honestly trust you more than me at this point). But right now we have big links that we can learn more from upon deaths. |
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10-27-2006, 12:28 PM | #1071 | |
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This is where I think you're wrong. There is not one link that has been suggested that I consider credible. The closest, by far, is the Fouts-Lathum link, and I am unconvinced of what that means. Let's say we lynch me today, and I turn up zombie. Does this make hoopsguy a zombie? Alan, even you have to admit that's far from ironclad. And if we lynch me and I turn up umbrella, what does that make hoopsguy? Or if we lynch me and I turn up stars, does that clear hoopsguy? All of your "links" are built out of paper. |
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10-27-2006, 12:46 PM | #1072 |
College Starter
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I have heard of two guys on the same side play fighting to make everybody think one is good one is evil....
It seems that is what st cronin and alant are doing right now. |
10-27-2006, 12:48 PM | #1073 |
College Starter
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So i think i am giong to base my vote today on people who have been flying under the radar.
So could one of you fellows who obviously have way too much time on your hand put together a post count for those of us still alive? And you dont have to include cronin, anxiety, or hoops on it because you guys are hogging on posts. |
10-27-2006, 12:49 PM | #1074 | |
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Quote:
On the Wereolf Games forum screen, if you click on the number of posts in the thread, it will break down number of posts by poster for you |
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10-27-2006, 12:50 PM | #1075 | |
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This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that. I think it's just 2 very strong willed people. |
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10-27-2006, 12:52 PM | #1076 | |
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Once again, I welcome something that is more definite right now. All I have heard so far is a good strategy to get our seers killed more than the zombies. |
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10-27-2006, 12:53 PM | #1077 |
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Catching up, and I"ve gotten this far. For what it's worth, I had completely forgotten the above described exchange. My vote for snDvls yesterday was somewhat motivated because I wasn't satisfied with voting for Cronin on the flyer that seeing how he "turns up" might give us information. I just don't feel comfortable lynching someone so lightly. I'm not opposed to lynching with little information so much in this game because of the three faction dynamic. Any Zombie/Umbrella lynch is helpful, and it is almost a 50/50 chance for a positive outcome for any lynch. Back to snDvls. The problem I had with him was simply that he came out, piled on Alan (the leading lynch candidate), spouted something that was profoundly untrue, and vanished. My assessment was that he was piling on his presumed lynch target, giving a BS reason, and then walking away from the board. I'm not sure if this indicates that he was hiding(zombie moreso than umbrella) or just throwing his vote away to remain UTR. It was suspicious enough that it warranted a vote. The initial exchange linking he and Alan wasn't a factor. |
10-27-2006, 12:56 PM | #1078 |
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10-27-2006, 01:01 PM | #1079 |
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OK, still doesn't look like we have much movement from the principle participants in this dispute. By now just about everyone has checked in, so I'm going to take a look back at today's posts to see if I get a little guidance on how to proceed with the arguments today. I feel like that helped me a lot yesterday afternoon and hope it will do the same today.
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10-27-2006, 01:03 PM | #1080 |
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Okay folks, I'm not feeling well. Nothing nasty, just sniffles, headache and sore throat. I'll trudge through today but if this game continues over the weekend, then I may have to jump ship.
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
10-27-2006, 01:07 PM | #1081 |
General Manager
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I am in all likelihood out til after lynch. Afternoon class, and then tonight I am going to a hockey game.
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10-27-2006, 01:09 PM | #1082 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
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Quote:
Since you are speaking about percentages with your 50/50 chance for positive lynch, I'll drop down what I feel the percentages are: 43% chance of randomly getting an umbrella or zombie. 46% chance of randomly getting an umbrella or zombie if picked by someone who truly is in STARS 36% chance of hitting valuable stars role. 21% chance of hitting a zombie. My reasoning for these numbers is based on the amount of STARS night kills vs no umbrella kills, I think my original projection of 11 - 6 -3 might have been slightly off by one. These numbers assume a 12-5-2 start. If you want to look at the percentages based on the 11-5-3 numbers still its: 50% chance of randomly getting umbrella or zombie 54% chance of getting umbrella or zombie if picked by someone truly STARS 36% chance of hitting valuable stars role. 21% chance of hitting a zombie. You have seen me say several times today that this whole lets guess randomly at UTR folks idea is just a good way to hit our seers, this is why. There is a better chance of hitting an important STARS role than a zombie with the randomly attack UTR people strategy. Also if the numbers are what I think they might be based on revised numbers, you only have a 7% better chance of hitting a bad guy than you do hitting a valuable stars role right now. |
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10-27-2006, 01:11 PM | #1083 |
Pro Starter
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herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being
*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles* and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start? |
10-27-2006, 01:16 PM | #1084 | |
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Quote:
You keep saying this like people are suggesting guessing randomly. Nobody is suggesting that we guess randomly at UTR folks. People (like me) are suggesting we start putting some pressure on UTR folks and see what shakes out. I don't get this. There is no reason we can't pressure someone that is UTR and then vote for st.cronin, or Fouts, or whomever you are looking at. To not even bother looking at the others makes no sense...unless you have specific knowledge of how you compare to the people already being discussed. |
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10-27-2006, 01:17 PM | #1085 | |
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Quote:
We should go visit Chubby, you can beat on him with some Herbal Essences and I'll stab him with a fork. |
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10-27-2006, 01:17 PM | #1086 |
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10-27-2006, 01:18 PM | #1087 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Alan, I'm considering the risk/reward element you suggested earlier on Cronin.
1. The Chief does not want to tip his hand, but he knows if Cronin is STARS. I think this is our most important lynch yet and he will want to assert himself a little more today than earlier (gut feel, but I would hope it is true) 2. The other STARS role that scans for faction has had two opportunities to pick Cronin at this point for a scan. They should have the ability to force the issue on this one. I would have expected that person to come forward and support you with a vote if they had Cronin listed as a Zombie. |
10-27-2006, 01:19 PM | #1088 | |
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I have no problems pressuing people. Lord knows I've had pressure all game But difference between pressuring them and voting for people for just being UTR |
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10-27-2006, 01:21 PM | #1089 | |
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If I am right on my hunches for who the possible PC's are, then I would rather be lynched today then for them to come out today. My lynch loses a villager but no important role. I just have the feeling I'm not wrong about Cronin. I've thrown alot of stuff at you today to see how you would respond, but for me being as deadset in an idea as you say, you seem to be the same in the opposite direction. |
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10-27-2006, 01:23 PM | #1090 |
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10-27-2006, 01:24 PM | #1091 |
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In fact, I feel so strongly about the likelihood that Cronin is bad, that if he isn't I'll happily accept a lynching for it.
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10-27-2006, 01:24 PM | #1092 |
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10-27-2006, 01:29 PM | #1093 | ||
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Quote:
Quote:
Alan, I'm working on a new theory here that I want to do a little fact-checking (more like sanity checking) on - this will take me awhile to do. But if it comes up I'll back you on this vote today. |
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10-27-2006, 01:30 PM | #1094 |
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10-27-2006, 01:32 PM | #1095 |
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10-27-2006, 01:34 PM | #1096 | |
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Quote:
You do see though that a good way to put pressure on them is to vote for them, right? It doesn't have to be a final vote, but if it looks like it *could* be a final vote, that is pressure. |
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10-27-2006, 01:34 PM | #1097 | |
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Quote:
that is where Tryith and I disagreed too. I thought it was just a frustration move is all. I should also add that we know Lathum was bad and he voted for St. C 2 days in a row. I'd say it's a pretty risky move for an umbrella member to vote for one of their own for 2 straight days. |
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10-27-2006, 01:43 PM | #1098 | |
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Quote:
True, but I think the prevalent line of thought is that if st.cronin is bad, he is a zombie. That is why people are looking at him for today's vote...we need to get a zombie. Better if it is the infector. |
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10-27-2006, 01:55 PM | #1099 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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I agree with the strategy of going after someone that is UTR.
I still believe that Alan is pushing too hard for st. cronin. Yesterday, it made me think he was a bad guy. Today, since he uis still at it, I think he is doing it because he is a good guy who really thinks st. cronin is bad. I don't think st. cronin is bad. Of the three, Alan/st. cronin/hoops, i would believe hoops was a bad guy before any of them. If he is, he's a zombie. I agree that LSG looks suspicious, but I always think she is. It must be her style of play. |
10-27-2006, 02:25 PM | #1100 |
General Manager
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Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.
I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin. Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW. VOTE ST. CRONIN |
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