Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you want, i can go back to day 1 and pull up the various posts I asked that didnt get answered that day.

Yes, please do.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Yes, please do.

Ok, it will take a bit.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, as long as you are committed to staying on Cronin today we are not going to agree on this vote. And, at some point, we are going to have to figure out what to do about that problem because if we are both STARS then I doubt the zombies are going to help us resolve our dispute.

As you have pointed out, tonight is the night that the zombies can convert. I have no interest in putting our day vote on someone I feel is more likely to be STARS than anyone else in the game (excluding me).

[st.cronin]

Things I know for sure:

AlanT is not the police chief.
Hoopsguy is not umbrella.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Yes, please do.

My initial comment to you regarding my thoughts about you:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well All I can say is I have been there before. I very rarely am a night kill by bad guys because usually the good guys find some reason to want to lynch me in the first few days. I talk alot in WW games, throw out alot of ideas (some of them better than others) and I want to encourage others to contribute with meaningful conversation.

If you are on my team or not, I do not know. You are however contributing to this discussion which for me is enough to want me to allow you a pass on day 1 until we have more information.

There was some going back and forth, but based on your moves, I decided to ask you this question to get your feelings for some other players (somewhat probing you just to see what I felt about you). You never responded to this question.

Originally Posted by Alan T

To be fair, the above quote Cronin meant leaving his vote on hoops not lathum as he wrote. Just clearing that up before this gets viewed wrong...

Now with that said, lets take the three earliest voters (besides you)

Hoopsguy
Fouts
Alan T

If you chose to move off of Hoopsguy to another early voter, would it be either myself or Fouts? Would you prefer neither and to stick with Hoops if you had your choice of those three?

A later post, when I was a bit frustrated by you, and mentioned it, but you never responded to this either.

Originally Posted by Alan T

I didn't vote for you, but to be the devil's advocate, I stated my case on why your move didn't make much sense to me and as far as I saw I don't think I ever got back a response that made complete sense to me.

For me I feel I have been giving you a very large amount of latitude though since its day 1. If I were to vote for you today it wouldnt be because you tried to encourage strategic play, its because you were inconsistant between your theory and your move.

These are the posts I had numbered in my notepad file for "clues" for me to look back at in regards to you. I'm guessing there were more, but your lack of response is what got my interests initially.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, as long as you are committed to staying on Cronin today we are not going to agree on this vote. And, at some point, we are going to have to figure out what to do about that problem because if we are both STARS then I doubt the zombies are going to help us resolve our dispute.

As you have pointed out, tonight is the night that the zombies can convert. I have no interest in putting our day vote on someone I feel is more likely to be STARS than anyone else in the game (excluding me).

I didn't say my vote couldn't move. I said prove to me why someone else is more likely a zombie (which is different than proving that someone has a chance of not being stars which Im pretty sure Fouts isnt)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Things I know for sure:

AlanT is not the police chief.
Hoopsguy is not umbrella.

How do you know for sure that Hoopsguy is not umbrella? I mean you could have thoughts or ideas to that, but knowing for sure?

[Lorena]

Damn, 22 pages and it's Day 2? Can you guys like slow down on the posting so I can take down notes? Geez...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

How do you know for sure that Hoopsguy is not umbrella? I mean you could have thoughts or ideas to that, but knowing for sure?

I think somebody needs to review the day 1 vote.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I didn't say my vote couldn't move. I said prove to me why someone else is more likely a zombie (which is different than proving that someone has a chance of not being stars which Im pretty sure Fouts isnt)

This is the point we keep getting stuck on. There isn't really any proof for anyone else being a zombie. Not conclusive anyway. This is why I think we need to turn our attention to others and see what shakes out.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My initial comment to you regarding my thoughts about you:



There was some going back and forth, but based on your moves, I decided to ask you this question to get your feelings for some other players (somewhat probing you just to see what I felt about you). You never responded to this question.



A later post, when I was a bit frustrated by you, and mentioned it, but you never responded to this either.




These are the posts I had numbered in my notepad file for "clues" for me to look back at in regards to you. I'm guessing there were more, but your lack of response is what got my interests initially.

The first and third posts are not questions. Something like the second one was asked several times, and I thought I explained it like this: Basically, I didn't have any opinion on ANYBODY. The only thing I had to go on was who voted first.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think somebody needs to review the day 1 vote.

The fact that both you and Lathum voted hoops to start with?

You know as well as I do that day 1 votes are red herrings when involving team on team votes. Thats a fine time to place a vote for later proof to say well i couldnt be bad, so and so voted for me.

Just like Lathum's vote in my mind doesn't make me think its less likely that hoops is umbrella, your vote doesnt disassociate you and him in my mind either.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The first and third posts are not questions. Something like the second one was asked several times, and I thought I explained it like this: Basically, I didn't have any opinion on ANYBODY. The only thing I had to go on was who voted first.

Actually you elaborated a bit on first vs early voters and such, and thats what led me to ask you that question about the early voters which you avoided. This topic doesn't help me much today so I'm not really too worried about getting the answer now, but you wanted to know the things that lead up to my distrust of you during day 1, so I was just showing how making statements then not responding to the follow up questions just didn't help things for you.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The fact that both you and Lathum voted hoops to start with?

You know as well as I do that day 1 votes are red herrings when involving team on team votes. Thats a fine time to place a vote for later proof to say well i couldnt be bad, so and so voted for me.

Just like Lathum's vote in my mind doesn't make me think its less likely that hoops is umbrella, your vote doesnt disassociate you and him in my mind either.

No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later.

Some people like to make this game way too hard.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Actually you elaborated a bit on first vs early voters and such, and thats what led me to ask you that question about the early voters which you avoided. This topic doesn't help me much today so I'm not really too worried about getting the answer now, but you wanted to know the things that lead up to my distrust of you during day 1, so I was just showing how making statements then not responding to the follow up questions just didn't help things for you.

No, I wanted you so stop saying that I was being evasive and not answering questions. I have been completely upfront about my strategic thinking since day 1.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, I wanted you so stop saying that I was being evasive and not answering questions. I have been completely upfront about my strategic thinking since day 1.

No, you asked for my reasons for voting you. I gave them to you based on my feelings based day by day. You then argued that you hadn't evaded my questions and asked me to show you what posts made me feel that way. So i did.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, no, no - the FIRST VOTE of day 1 was Lathum voting for hoops. It wasn't like there were a bunch of other votes out there, and he could hide his. If he wanted to cast a red herring vote he could have waited til later.

Some people like to make this game way too hard.

I guess I just like a challenge for myself

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, you asked for my reasons for voting you. I gave them to you based on my feelings based day by day. You then argued that you hadn't evaded my questions and asked me to show you what posts made me feel that way. So i did.

If that's the best you came up with, then clearly I was not being evasive. Go back and reread day 1 with an open mind. I was getting questions from everybody.

I really think you are also stars, but you are really being obstinate.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Damn, 22 pages and it's Day 2? Can you guys like slow down on the posting so I can take down notes? Geez...

This hasn't been as bad as Hoops last game (coincidentally the last game I played before SAW), but when we get talking...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If that's the best you came up with, then clearly I was not being evasive. Go back and reread day 1 with an open mind. I was getting questions from everybody.

I really think you are also stars, but you are really being obstinate.

Keep in mind, I didn't vote for you despite being frustrated by you. It just put you on my radar. I told you the things that added to it in later days that more-cemented my feelings about you.

Like I said, I'm not closed minded, right now Im open to better suggestions with better proof. So far all I have heard though is campaigns that are as likely to lynch a seer or PC as they are to get a zombie, which is not a good plan in my mind.

I already have said what I think the best play for today is (including even my own lynching if people honestly trust you more than me at this point). But right now we have big links that we can learn more from upon deaths.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

But right now we have big links that we can learn more from upon deaths.

This is where I think you're wrong. There is not one link that has been suggested that I consider credible. The closest, by far, is the Fouts-Lathum link, and I am unconvinced of what that means.

Let's say we lynch me today, and I turn up zombie. Does this make hoopsguy a zombie? Alan, even you have to admit that's far from ironclad. And if we lynch me and I turn up umbrella, what does that make hoopsguy? Or if we lynch me and I turn up stars, does that clear hoopsguy? All of your "links" are built out of paper.

[LoneStarGirl]

I have heard of two guys on the same side play fighting to make everybody think one is good one is evil....

It seems that is what st cronin and alant are doing right now.

[LoneStarGirl]

So i think i am giong to base my vote today on people who have been flying under the radar.

So could one of you fellows who obviously have way too much time on your hand put together a post count for those of us still alive? And you dont have to include cronin, anxiety, or hoops on it because you guys are hogging on posts.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

So i think i am giong to base my vote today on people who have been flying under the radar.

So could one of you fellows who obviously have way too much time on your hand put together a post count for those of us still alive? And you dont have to include cronin, anxiety, or hoops on it because you guys are hogging on posts.

On the Wereolf Games forum screen, if you click on the number of posts in the thread, it will break down number of posts by poster for you

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I have heard of two guys on the same side play fighting to make everybody think one is good one is evil....

It seems that is what st cronin and alant are doing right now.

This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that.
I think it's just 2 very strong willed people.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is where I think you're wrong. There is not one link that has been suggested that I consider credible. The closest, by far, is the Fouts-Lathum link, and I am unconvinced of what that means.

Let's say we lynch me today, and I turn up zombie. Does this make hoopsguy a zombie? Alan, even you have to admit that's far from ironclad. And if we lynch me and I turn up umbrella, what does that make hoopsguy? Or if we lynch me and I turn up stars, does that clear hoopsguy? All of your "links" are built out of paper.

Once again, I welcome something that is more definite right now. All I have heard so far is a good strategy to get our seers killed more than the zombies.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by path12

Sure, here's the sequence:

Catching up, and I"ve gotten this far. For what it's worth, I had completely forgotten the above described exchange.

My vote for snDvls yesterday was somewhat motivated because I wasn't satisfied with voting for Cronin on the flyer that seeing how he "turns up" might give us information. I just don't feel comfortable lynching someone so lightly. I'm not opposed to lynching with little information so much in this game because of the three faction dynamic. Any Zombie/Umbrella lynch is helpful, and it is almost a 50/50 chance for a positive outcome for any lynch.

Back to snDvls. The problem I had with him was simply that he came out, piled on Alan (the leading lynch candidate), spouted something that was profoundly untrue, and vanished. My assessment was that he was piling on his presumed lynch target, giving a BS reason, and then walking away from the board. I'm not sure if this indicates that he was hiding(zombie moreso than umbrella) or just throwing his vote away to remain UTR. It was suspicious enough that it warranted a vote. The initial exchange linking he and Alan wasn't a factor.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that.
I think it's just 2 very strong willed people.

I think her point was that they are on the same side, not necessarily the STARS side.

[hoopsguy]

OK, still doesn't look like we have much movement from the principle participants in this dispute. By now just about everyone has checked in, so I'm going to take a look back at today's posts to see if I get a little guidance on how to proceed with the arguments today. I feel like that helped me a lot yesterday afternoon and hope it will do the same today.

[Abe Sargent]

Okay folks, I'm not feeling well. Nothing nasty, just sniffles, headache and sore throat. I'll trudge through today but if this game continues over the weekend, then I may have to jump ship.

[st.cronin]

I am in all likelihood out til after lynch. Afternoon class, and then tonight I am going to a hockey game.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Catching up, and I"ve gotten this far. For what it's worth, I had completely forgotten the above described exchange.

My vote for snDvls yesterday was somewhat motivated because I wasn't satisfied with voting for Cronin on the flyer that seeing how he "turns up" might give us information. I just don't feel comfortable lynching someone so lightly. I'm not opposed to lynching with little information so much in this game because of the three faction dynamic. Any Zombie/Umbrella lynch is helpful, and it is almost a 50/50 chance for a positive outcome for any lynch.

Back to snDvls. The problem I had with him was simply that he came out, piled on Alan (the leading lynch candidate), spouted something that was profoundly untrue, and vanished. My assessment was that he was piling on his presumed lynch target, giving a BS reason, and then walking away from the board. I'm not sure if this indicates that he was hiding(zombie moreso than umbrella) or just throwing his vote away to remain UTR. It was suspicious enough that it warranted a vote. The initial exchange linking he and Alan wasn't a factor.

Since you are speaking about percentages with your 50/50 chance for positive lynch, I'll drop down what I feel the percentages are:

43% chance of randomly getting an umbrella or zombie.
46% chance of randomly getting an umbrella or zombie if picked by someone who truly is in STARS
36% chance of hitting valuable stars role.
21% chance of hitting a zombie.

My reasoning for these numbers is based on the amount of STARS night kills vs no umbrella kills, I think my original projection of 11 - 6 -3 might have been slightly off by one. These numbers assume a 12-5-2 start.

If you want to look at the percentages based on the 11-5-3 numbers still its:

50% chance of randomly getting umbrella or zombie
54% chance of getting umbrella or zombie if picked by someone truly STARS
36% chance of hitting valuable stars role.
21% chance of hitting a zombie.

You have seen me say several times today that this whole lets guess randomly at UTR folks idea is just a good way to hit our seers, this is why. There is a better chance of hitting an important STARS role than a zombie with the randomly attack UTR people strategy.

Also if the numbers are what I think they might be based on revised numbers, you only have a 7% better chance of hitting a bad guy than you do hitting a valuable stars role right now.

[saldana]

herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being

*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles*

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You have seen me say several times today that this whole lets guess randomly at UTR folks idea is just a good way to hit our seers, this is why. There is a better chance of hitting an important STARS role than a zombie with the randomly attack UTR people strategy.

You keep saying this like people are suggesting guessing randomly. Nobody is suggesting that we guess randomly at UTR folks. People (like me) are suggesting we start putting some pressure on UTR folks and see what shakes out. I don't get this. There is no reason we can't pressure someone that is UTR and then vote for st.cronin, or Fouts, or whomever you are looking at. To not even bother looking at the others makes no sense...unless you have specific knowledge of how you compare to the people already being discussed.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by saldana

herbal essence...pretty funny chubby....please be sure to play in my next game, whenever that ends up being

*adds chubby to list of shitacular roles*

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

We should go visit Chubby, you can beat on him with some Herbal Essences and I'll stab him with a fork.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by saldana

and I am dead again....i hate this fucking game.....when does the next one start?

This pretty much sums up the game.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm considering the risk/reward element you suggested earlier on Cronin.

1. The Chief does not want to tip his hand, but he knows if Cronin is STARS. I think this is our most important lynch yet and he will want to assert himself a little more today than earlier (gut feel, but I would hope it is true)
2. The other STARS role that scans for faction has had two opportunities to pick Cronin at this point for a scan. They should have the ability to force the issue on this one. I would have expected that person to come forward and support you with a vote if they had Cronin listed as a Zombie.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

You keep saying this like people are suggesting guessing randomly. Nobody is suggesting that we guess randomly at UTR folks. People (like me) are suggesting we start putting some pressure on UTR folks and see what shakes out. I don't get this. There is no reason we can't pressure someone that is UTR and then vote for st.cronin, or Fouts, or whomever you are looking at. To not even bother looking at the others makes no sense...unless you have specific knowledge of how you compare to the people already being discussed.

I have no problems pressuing people. Lord knows I've had pressure all game But difference between pressuring them and voting for people for just being UTR

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I'm considering the risk/reward element you suggested earlier on Cronin.

1. The Chief does not want to tip his hand, but he knows if Cronin is STARS. I think this is our most important lynch yet and he will want to assert himself a little more today than earlier (gut feel, but I would hope it is true)
2. The other STARS role that scans for faction has had two opportunities to pick Cronin at this point for a scan. They should have the ability to force the issue on this one. I would have expected that person to come forward and support you with a vote if they had Cronin listed as a Zombie.

If I am right on my hunches for who the possible PC's are, then I would rather be lynched today then for them to come out today. My lynch loses a villager but no important role. I just have the feeling I'm not wrong about Cronin.

I've thrown alot of stuff at you today to see how you would respond, but for me being as deadset in an idea as you say, you seem to be the same in the opposite direction.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

This would require them to PM each other though and STARS can't do that.
I think it's just 2 very strong willed people.

Why do you think cronin and alan are stars SNDVLS?

[Alan T]

In fact, I feel so strongly about the likelihood that Cronin is bad, that if he isn't I'll happily accept a lynching for it.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I think her point was that they are on the same side, not necessarily the STARS side.

hmmm. I must have missed something here then

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If I am right on my hunches for who the possible PC's are, then I would rather be lynched today then for them to come out today. My lynch loses a villager but no important role. I just have the feeling I'm not wrong about Cronin.

I've thrown alot of stuff at you today to see how you would respond, but for me being as deadset in an idea as you say, you seem to be the same in the opposite direction.

Originally Posted by Alan T

In fact, I feel so strongly about the likelihood that Cronin is bad, that if he isn't I'll happily accept a lynching for it.

Alan, I'm working on a new theory here that I want to do a little fact-checking (more like sanity checking) on - this will take me awhile to do. But if it comes up I'll back you on this vote today.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Why do you think cronin and alan are stars SNDVLS?

I'm not 100%, but I feel more strong on St. C.
His play yesterday and the self vote pushed me over the top into him being good.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I'm not 100%, but I feel more strong on St. C.
His play yesterday and the self vote pushed me over the top into him being good.

I still think the self vote is more of a bad guy tactic, but maybe that is just me.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I have no problems pressuing people. Lord knows I've had pressure all game But difference between pressuring them and voting for people for just being UTR

You do see though that a good way to put pressure on them is to vote for them, right? It doesn't have to be a final vote, but if it looks like it *could* be a final vote, that is pressure.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I still think the self vote is more of a bad guy tactic, but maybe that is just me.

that is where Tryith and I disagreed too. I thought it was just a frustration move is all.

I should also add that we know Lathum was bad and he voted for St. C 2 days in a row. I'd say it's a pretty risky move for an umbrella member to vote for one of their own for 2 straight days.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

that is where Tryith and I disagreed too. I thought it was just a frustration move is all.

I should also add that we know Lathum was bad and he voted for St. C 2 days in a row. I'd say it's a pretty risky move for an umbrella member to vote for one of their own for 2 straight days.

True, but I think the prevalent line of thought is that if st.cronin is bad, he is a zombie. That is why people are looking at him for today's vote...we need to get a zombie. Better if it is the infector.

[spleen1015]

I agree with the strategy of going after someone that is UTR.

I still believe that Alan is pushing too hard for st. cronin. Yesterday, it made me think he was a bad guy. Today, since he uis still at it, I think he is doing it because he is a good guy who really thinks st. cronin is bad. I don't think st. cronin is bad. Of the three, Alan/st. cronin/hoops, i would believe hoops was a bad guy before any of them. If he is, he's a zombie.

I agree that LSG looks suspicious, but I always think she is. It must be her style of play.

[hoopsguy]

Given that I don't have a role with any kind of seer powers, I'm basically in a position where I have to read the play of others a great deal and figure it out. I think I was correct in reading Tyrith yesterday, but incorrect in reading Alan T. And then drawing incorrect conclusions on Tyrith's findings.

I now believe that we would have been happy with either choice yesterday between Lathum and Cronin.

Alan, if Cronin shows up as STARS then congratulations on conning me about as badly as I've ever been in WW.

VOTE ST. CRONIN