Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm of the same opinion on Tyrith that Cronin is with me - if Tyrith is a bad guy then I think he is the wizard and not a henchman.

Here is where I depart a little bit, though. I'm not convinced that we don't gain from "lynching" the wizard - I agree that we are unlikely to kill him on the first instance, but it might advance the plot (or allow a night kill by a wolf role). For example, in Coffee Warlord's game we had to attack an elemental twice to finish it.

My thoughts are entirely speculative, based on SirFozzie's description in Post #1 (wizard flees, victory conditions). Cronin, do you have anything in terms of role knowledge that validates that we cannot lynch the wizard?

You guys might be right about lynching a wizard. I don't have any role knowledge to guide us - only that I can't detect the wizard - so one of the guys I scanned COULD be a wizard. I just think it makes little sense to go after somebody who might be the wizard - I think it's a poor risk/reward ratio.

[Alan T]

I agree with that, which is why I'm pushing for people to look at the three I listed. I just wanted to make sure that I didn't miss something. I'm guessing at some point we will need to go after the wizard, and am guessing lynch is the way to do it.

[Schmidty]

I don't know what to do.

I don't think Anxiety is bad, and I think hoops may be. At the same time, I don't want a tie.

[Schmidty]

Am I right regarding the count? hoops 2, Anxiety 2? I don't have time to count them

[Schmidty]

Fuck, I don't know what to do.

[Alan T]

Its 3-2 Anxiety right now, but we have till monday night. no deadline tonight. So really no huge worry about ties right now.

[Schmidty]

Vote Tyrith

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, you have a lot of time to figure it out - deadline isn't until Monday (see thread title). Work through it, try to make a good decision.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Its 3-2 Anxiety right now, but we have till monday night. no deadline tonight. So really no huge worry about ties right now.

Aha.

Ok then.

[Schmidty]

Unvote Tyrith

[Blade6119]

Am i the only one that found it hilarious that Schmidtys vote did nothing to change the tie he thought was there?

Much love buddy, you make it all worth it with your comments sometimes

[Abe Sargent]

Heehee

[Barkeep49]

Saldana when you're less drunk I'd love for you to take a look at my post in response to you and see what you can find.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Am i the only one that found it hilarious that Schmidtys vote did nothing to change the tie he thought was there?

Much love buddy, you make it all worth it with your comments sometimes

saldana just mailed me a bunch of highly potent beers. Blame it on him.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Schmidty, you have a lot of time to figure it out.

I have a feeling he'll need every minute. No offense, Schmidty.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I have a feeling he'll need every minute. No offense, Schmidty.

No offense taken.

I am the world's worst WW player, and proud of it!!!!!!

(and inebriated a lot lately)

[hoopsguy]

Out until tomorrow evening - visiting the extended family this weekend.

[Barkeep49]

Post recap for Anxiety.

94 – Hates doing the I am a villager routine
96 – Meaningless post
97 – Meaningless post
111 – Meaningless post
114 – Meaningless post
133 – Disagrees with hoops calling people out who have not posted. Thinks it is unreasonable over the holiday weekend
139 – Still thinks hoops’ strategy is “premature”
147 – Meaningless post
153 – Points out the Fozzie used a plural in talking about Wizard companions meaning at least 3 baddies
157 – Feels that the wizard is a player character
184 – Clarifies a hoops scenario which suggests we need to kill the companions before we can kill the Wizard
185 – Wants to call the Wizard’s helpers “things”
215 – Looking forward to the game
217 – Meaningless post
219 –

I have no clue who to vote for. I agree with path though that is seems like Blade is more weary than Righteous. Tyrith I don't have a read on a a normal villager/wolf/non-thing, since he has never boon one before.

It's Tuesday night, however. On two previous nights I ended up getting lynched and getting massive attenion because I ent out on a date, so I am telling you all now that I'm leaving for a date soon. We'll have dinner and go see X3 in the theaters. I will not be back by the deadline I suspect, so I need to vote now.

There are several reasons why I am voting thusly. One, because being the first to jump on a new guy is a bit antagonistic for me. Secondly, being the first to jump on anyone is a bit antagonistic for me. Thirdly, jumping on someone for what they did in a previous game (were quiet) is a bit too antagonsitic for me.

And fourth, it's just not in character for me to vote for anyone else

Vote Barkeep

222 – Meaningless post
324 – Tries to interpret tangle’s death sequence. Suggests tangle might be a bad guy.
332 – Meaningless post
352 – Clarifies that veteran players are saying that Qwik could have been killed for many reasons
368 – Votes for hoopsguy based on cronin’s reasoning that hoops wanted to start discussing strategy and had fingered suspects during night 0.
406 – Suggests one side might know more then the other about ties
432 – Feels hoops is pushing more then is necessary. Keeps vote on hoops
435 – Has settled on calling bad guys antagonists
500 –

Hmm. I was hoping that you guys were right about mckerney. Does the fact that there was not a late switch that killed hoopsguy, just thretened him mean he's clear or that he's more likely to be dirty than ever. I;d love to hear the thoughts of those more experienced, because my head sometimes hurts when I think hard about WW.

502 – Thinks Blade is clear. “He looks foul but feels fair” using a LOTR analogy
519 – Meaningless post
536 – Responding to schmidity, who called one of his own posts “stupidest post ever” that it sounds like every WW post to him
542 – Defends the fact that he hasn’t voted against a known good guy after only two votes. Understands the line of reasoning about trying not to get noticed with votes though
548 – In response to my clarifying something states that he wanted to make sure his response was out there during the night cycle in case I, Barkeep, got whacked
652 – Still thinks there are 3 bad guys
676 –

Okay, just woke up a half hour ago, and I'll soon be packing. I'm heading out to a friend's place tonight and playing Magic and I'll be out all night. I might be able to use his computer to check back in, later, but who knows.

Wow! Lots of stuff happening and information being revealed. For the record, here is my own littel circle of trust:

Trust: Blade, Hoops
Distrust: Cronin, Lathum's cryptic statement

Everybody else is in the middle. I have to vote now, because I don't know if I'll be able to log on or not from my friend's place.

Do you ever feel that you know a lot more and yet are still having difficutly who to vote for? That's me right now.

I find myself believing hoops, for now at least.

Does anybody else find Cronin to be playing rather erratically? I'd like to hear more from Lathum, but I understand if he's not willing to give it up. I just don't think Lathum should have said anything at all until there was serious heat on Blade, and there wasn't.

Still, poor strategy does not an antagonist make. Us wolves have to stick together. For now, I'm going to roll my view of cronin.

Vote st.cronin

682 – Believes cronins reveal but thinks his actions have been a “bit off”
694 – Continues to claim ignorance about strategy, but doesn’t want to reveal his role as it gives too many targets for baddies
698 – Doesn’t know any bad guys
705 – Feels Blade left us in a bad situation, despite being right to reveal what he knew
710 – In response to tyrith suggesting he is playing like he did as a bad guy last game, that he, Anxiety, is still new
715 – Talks about how great it was last game when the two new players were the only bad guys
724 – Meaningless post
725 – Agrees with cronin that there were no late switches because it was between two good guys. Vote remains on cronin
734 – Wants hoops to explain his suspect list
750 – Meaningless post
886 – [Posted after deadline, before reveal]Does not think path is a bad guy. Seems to trust Blade, Lathum, Cronin, Saldana, Hoops
977 – Believes someone he trusts isn’t trusthworthy. Now thinks cronin is good but saldana bad.
996 – Doesn’t like hoops post to Tyrith about Tyrith’s blade connection. Calls it a “get out of jail free card”
1006 – Points out to Hoops foz’s line about Blade’s death having a bigger impact on someone
1007 – Duplicate post
1008 – Asks Tyrith if he was affected by Blade’s death
1029 – Believes CW when CW says saldana is a good guy. Votes for hoops
1040 – Points out to CW that he, Anxiety, hasn’t voted for Tyrith
1062 – Meaningless post

So I am prepared to vote for Anxiety after having done that but want to see what others think of the recap before I post my reasons. That and I want this to be active tomorrow as I am working and it will entertain me if this thread is active during that time .

[st.cronin]

Trust: Blade, Hoops
Distrust: Cronin, Lathum's cryptic statement

What interests me most about that recap is this bit. Assuming Anxiety turns out to be a bad guy, what do we make of this? Any thought's BK? Does it clear hoops and lathum?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

What interests me most about that recap is this bit. Assuming Anxiety turns out to be a bad guy, what do we make of this? Any thought's BK? Does it clear hoops and lathum?

Yeah I found that part interesting as well which is why it's one of the posts I quoted. I normally post posts which I simply can not find a way to recap in a sentence or two or which I think contains interesting information. That most certainly fell into the interesting information category. More about my analysis tomorrow. I am a bit of a tease at the moment

[st.cronin]

Well, you're a bastard.

[st.cronin]

I would look at it this way: who has Anxiety AVOIDED talking about, or engaging.


ardent
alan t

and to a lesser extent:

schmidty

[Alan T]

Thanks for that recap Barkeep. Like Ive been saying for a few days, I feel Anxiety is all over the place. Also over 50% of his posts don't really provide much information. its like he is trying to post to be active without committing to much.

Re: 1072 from Cronin, Without trying to draw a ton of scruity on myself, I honestly don't think many people have talked about me much. I would like to think that is because I've been trying to do what I can to be active and help us narrow down our circles of trust.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thanks for that recap Barkeep. Like Ive been saying for a few days, I feel Anxiety is all over the place. Also over 50% of his posts don't really provide much information. its like he is trying to post to be active without committing to much.

Re: 1072 from Cronin, Without trying to draw a ton of scruity on myself, I honestly don't think many people have talked about me much. I would like to think that is because I've been trying to do what I can to be active and help us narrow down our circles of trust.

And that should be Scrutiny, not Scruity.. stupid laptop keyboards

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thanks for that recap Barkeep. Like Ive been saying for a few days, I feel Anxiety is all over the place. Also over 50% of his posts don't really provide much information. its like he is trying to post to be active without committing to much.

Re: 1072 from Cronin, Without trying to draw a ton of scruity on myself, I honestly don't think many people have talked about me much. I would like to think that is because I've been trying to do what I can to be active and help us narrow down our circles of trust.

Well, I'm not sure it means anything. Blade seemed to trust you, but I think that was based on all vibe and no data. Of those three, I would rate you least likely to be bad.

[Alan T]

Something that would be interesting to see is a list like Barkeep did for Anxiety, also for Schmidty and Tyrith. From my perspective, all three of them have behaved somewhat similar this game (with little personal twists).

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Something that would be interesting to see is a list like Barkeep did for Anxiety, also for Schmidty and Tyrith. From my perspective, all three of them have behaved somewhat similar this game (with little personal twists).

Tyrith, I somewhat agree. Schmidty I'm not so sure about. He's been pretty much the same old Schmidty afaict.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Tyrith, I somewhat agree. Schmidty I'm not so sure about. He's been pretty much the same old Schmidty afaict.

Well the thing is, it might be how he normally acts, but it still is as erratic as others. I guess its an ongoing nit I have with some folks who always play so crazy that it is hard to pick them out as a baddie, and doesnt necessarily make things easy when they are on my team.. But Its just a game, and if thats how folks enjoy to play then its cool with me Just makes it harder when someone -always- acts suspicious

[Poli]

I apologize, everyone.

I'm going to have drop out. Net access here is spotty, at best.

[SirFozzie]

No Prob, AE. we'll get cover for ya

[Barkeep49]

My promised post on Anxiety's posts:

First he has a lot of meaningless posts. A lot of "heehee"s for instance. If you want to check my labeling of posts as meaningless please feel free. But you will notice that some posts which I recapped, are often just repeating, supposedly for "clarification" what someone else has said. You can see this in posts 352 185 for a couple of examples. All of this together does seem to give the impression of more activity then has actually been done, especially when people click to see how many posts a person has done in the thread.

And then there is the rationale of his first couple of days votes. Now I admit all rationales in the first couple of days looks weak. But I quoted his vote for me since I thought it was particularly specious logic at the time and think it no less suspicious now.

Post 324 is when my radar really starts to go off. He tries to come up with a farfangled way for tangle to be thought of as a bad guy. This, coupled with his repeated assertions of three bad guys, seems like a play. If, as a bad guy, he can convince people that one of the bad guys is gone it will make them look in wrong directions/relax.

Post 406 is of interest. Upon casual reading it suggests that the bad guys might know more about ties then good guys. In fact I almost recapped it that way. But a careful reading shows that he just thinks one side knows more then the other about votes. With what we now know about cronin, it seems that one side might know more, but it's the GOOD guys, not the bad guys.

Post 542 he admits that when he played as a bad guy last game he tried not to get noticed, but insists that he's not doing that this game. Hmm, indeed.

Post 548 was interesting because it suggests that he wasn't too worried about being killed himself, and is more worried about me being whacked. Not the typical good guy thought, as normally people are more concerned about themselves, though not really a bad guy thought necessarily either.

676 is when things start getting bad for him. It is the first of two times when he goes from voting for a person to insisting that they are highly trusted. These changes practically gave me whiplash. In 676 there's no real explanation for how he went from voting for hoops, even saying that he was confident of the vote later on in post 432, to having him in his trust list. Things aren't helped when in 682 when he states he believes cronin's reveal but still seems fishy. Huh? How can you believe cronin's reveal, which makes him a good guy, but still think he's a bad guy? Of course by post 886 he suddenly trusts cronin. Again no explanation for the turnabout.

At least today when he votes for hoops we see some of the change, starting with hoop's tyrith post which Anxiety cleverly calls a "get out of jail free card". Hoops had mysteriously appeared on Anxiety's trust list, and as of 886 was still there, but now he's once again Anxiety's target.

All things considered I think there is a lot of stuff there to suggest Anxiety is a great target and so I'm pleased to

Vote Anxiety

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Saldana when you're less drunk I'd love for you to take a look at my post in response to you and see what you can find.

ok, sorry i forgot to mention i would be off the board all day yesterday, got up insanely early to drive home from montreal, and went straight to a wedding, but i am sober and well rested and ready to rip the wizards throat out.

BK,i did what you asked and what i can tell you is this........i'm vince young..

i hope that answered your questions, if not, we can continue this, but i dont want to be too blunt.

cronin, as far as what value we get if we lynch hoops, there are a couple things...
1. if he is a henchman, we kill a henchman
2. if he is the wizard, which given your sniff, is a distinct possibility, and we lynch him, we will find out definitively if we CAN lynch him or not, and if not, at least we waste no more time searching for him and can begin to tie people to him that will be the henchman.
3. also, if he is the wizard and survives the lynching, we didnt kill another wolf for him by voting for the wrong person again.

i do think we are on the right track with anxiety, and if my vote is needed to lynch him, i will move it, but right for now, i am gonna leave it with hoops.

[Barkeep49]

Ok saldana is most definetely good in my eyes and based on his response I think I'm good in his eyes. Can you confirm that saldana?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by saldana

2. if he is the wizard, which given your sniff, is a distinct possibility, and we lynch him, we will find out definitively if we CAN lynch him or not, and if not, at least we waste no more time searching for him and can begin to tie people to him that will be the henchman.

You might have missed this but hoops' sniff was no different then anyone elses. So hoops might be the wizard but we recieved no insight, either way, on that from the sniff.

[Coffee Warlord]

Going to go with Barkeep on this one. While I'm still skeptical about hoops, I'm thinking Anxiety has a far better chance of being a bad guy. We can worry about hoops later, and/or hope we get a seer type thing on him.

Vote Anxiety

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok saldana is most definetely good in my eyes and based on his response I think I'm good in his eyes. Can you confirm that saldana?

absolutely, now that i have fully functioning neurons again, i can say with as much certainty as there is in WW, that you are a good guy and #1 on my trust list.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so my Dynasty has now been updated so I'm looking to this thread to keep me somewhat amused for the next 3 hours.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok so my Dynasty has now been updated so I'm looking to this thread to keep me somewhat amused for the next 3 hours.

A termite walks into a bar, and says, "Excuse me, where is the bar tender?"

[Barkeep49]

Two guys walk into a bar. The third one ducks.

[st.cronin]

nice

Some questions BK - do you know the current vote count? And who do you want me to "sniff" the next night?

[Abe Sargent]

Okay. It’s apparently cards on the table time. In case you lynch me tomorrow, I want you to have all of the information that I have available to you to figure out what is going on.

I have a role that, quite frankly, I’ve never heard of. I am a werewitch. BTW, Foz, although I think the name is fairly clever, couldn’t you have given me something more…masculine? Maybe werewarlock or somesuch?

I have extra-sensory canine powers and every night, I get a vague “intuition” which I assume represents my mystical abilities. Here are the intuitions I received:

Night 0 – I sensed a foreign presence in our ragtag pack coming from three directions. I interpreted this to mean that there were three antagonists.

Night 1 – I sensed eyes upon me. I did not know how to interpret this. Seer? Witness? Bodyguard? Reverse Seer? Just SF’s way of amping up the paranoia?

Night 2 – I sensed that someone I trusted was not what he appeared to be.

Night 3 (Last night) – Just the opposite. I sensed that someone I did not trust was not who he appeared to be.

On Day Two, I absolutely trusted cronin and blade, and rather trusted saldana and hoops. Therefore, on Day Three, after getting the intuition about someone I trusted, I hopped on cronin.

However, since then, I’ve come to view cronin as one of us. Therefore, today I am looking at saldana or hoops.

I do not know what to do with my Night 3 intuition yet.

I did release that there may be an alternate interpretation of my intuitions. When SF says that someone “you” trusted or did not trust, he may not have meant me specifically, but us as a group. You can be meant both ways. My powers, such as they are, are nebulous at best.

Anyway, hope that helps.

-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

Here's the vote count I have:
Anxiety -- Cronin(922), Alan T(998), Tyrith(1002), Barkeep49(1081)
Hoops -- saldana(1022), Anxiety(1029)

Obviously it's still early so it's too soon to tell what's going on.

[Barkeep49]

As for who I'd want you to sniff, I think it sort of depends on how Anxiety comes out. If he's dirty I think you have to possibly look at people like Alan and Lathum who don't have anyone vouching for them. If he's clean I'm not sure, but maybe Tyrith?

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety I'm glad to see your "role reveal" out there. This is a fairly worthless role, however, at the moment and as such it increases the chances, at least to me, of being a fake role. But I will give some thought to what you've said and see if someone else comes out worse then you.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Snip Snip

Hmm.

-- Why I Don't Buy It

1) It seems to me we have quite a few individuals who have already claimed a quasi seer-esque power. I think we've got one too many of those already.

2) You're now attempting to focus distrust on one person I absolutely trust (Saldana) and one person I don't particularly trust, but we've already gone round and round on him. (Hoopsguy). Of those two, one has voted for the other, and this could be an attempt to try and get a voting war between those two going.

-- Why I Buy It

1) You've described a power that would entirely fit a Fozzie game. It does sound fairly genuine.

-- In Short

Don't buy it, unless someone I trust comes forward and corroborates his story. From your description, it DOES seem like someone could do that.

[Abe Sargent]

Remember, even I admit my my one intuition about who "you" could have referred to us as a pack and not me as a werewitch. So although I am interpretating it as meaning hoops, saldana or cornin, it could mean whoever we trusted as a group at that time. Plus, the description says not what they appear to be, not necessarily wizard-esque. It's too vague for me to be sure about saladana and hoops and cronin, but if you guys can figure it out, it's good to toss it out there.

BYW, I would like to point out that I was absolutely under the radar until I voted for cronin. I had begun to ally myself with cronin and saldana, I have people vouching for me, why would I bring massive susupicion on me if I were an antagonist? I may not have much experience, but I certainly know enough not to do something like that if I am an antagonist. Especially since I was one last time after being converted and I brought suspicion on myself early.

I did it because I believed it was the right vote, not because I wanted to stay under the radar.

-Anxiety

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Hmm.

-- Why I Don't Buy It

1) It seems to me we have quite a few individuals who have already claimed a quasi seer-esque power. I think we've got one too many of those already.

2) You're now attempting to focus distrust on one person I absolutely trust (Saldana) and one person I don't particularly trust, but we've already gone round and round on him. (Hoopsguy). Of those two, one has voted for the other, and this could be an attempt to try and get a voting war between those two going.

-- Why I Buy It

1) You've described a power that would entirely fit a Fozzie game. It does sound fairly genuine.

-- In Short

Don't buy it, unless someone I trust comes forward and corroborates his story. From your description, it DOES seem like someone could do that.

[Barkeep49]

I would agree that there is someone out there who could corroborate his story. But I'm not so sure we're seer heavy as so far we haven't had anyone come out and say they're a traditional seer. So perhaps the seer role has been split into two, as it was in king's game.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety you were on my radar ever since you voted for me with an admitted hypocritical reason on D1. I had just stayed quiet about it until someone else looked your way. Which brings me to the point: Who has vouched for you in this game?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But I'm not so sure we're seer heavy as so far we haven't had anyone come out and say they're a traditional seer. So perhaps the seer role has been split into two, as it was in king's game.

If that's the case, I kind of think the "second seer" would be more powerful than what Anxiety has described, if indeed his role qualifies as it.

Furthermore, if this is the case, I think probably the most likely way Anxiety would have sensed someone is if Cronin sniffed his ass. Which, if we believe Cronin, he didn't.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety: Before post 692 is there anything you've posted which suggests you might have a role?