werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[MrBug708]

Well, I wont be here for most of the day but someone made me drunk last night. The two people who died last night were villagers and I'm not sure on the rest.

Vote - Raiders Army

[MrBug708]

RA voted for me really quick

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Are you looking at pairings here, then? If one is a wolf, then so is the other? There are some interesting combos there.

Partly that, partly just looking at who put a vote on somebody who got no other votes - those may or may not be throwaways, I would have to look at the context.

It is interesting that EagleFan is on there twice, as a voter and votee. I have no feel on him whatsoever, but I don't think he's a bad lynch candidate at all.

[MrBug708]

Ok, I'm back for a while after all. I will take back my RA vote for now

Unvote - RaidersArmy

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

From day 1:

Votes for known good
RPI-Fan - hoopsguuy, telle, st.cronin, path12, mr.but
AlanT - mrdna, neon, purdue
DaddyTorgo - AlanT, Barkeep, Render

Votes for known bad
Neon-Chaos - oliegirl

Day 2 I don't have an official vote count, but I know there were a handful of votes for DT.

From day 3:
Votes for known good
Telle - st.cronin, oliegirl, passacaglia, mrbug
DaddyTorgo - Purdue

These are only final votes, and are based off of what Lathum posted at the end of each day. Analysis in the next post.

This is actually a very clear sign for me to pick who to vote for.

Vote - St. Cronin

I'm still curious to see who people think the bartender is

[MrBug708]

I think Oliegirl and Pass are my next targets for lynching

[st.cronin]

I certainly see the case against me, having made it myself, but what's the case against pass or oliegirl? Remember, oliegirl claimed to have a serving tray. I'm not sure she wold claim that if she were a wolf.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I certainly see the case against me, having made it myself, but what's the case against pass or oliegirl? Remember, oliegirl claimed to have a serving tray. I'm not sure she wold claim that if she were a wolf.

We already had a wolf make that claim when NC did that the first day. Why would it be any different now? I put less stock into the first day voting then I do the second/third day voting

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

We already had a wolf make that claim when NC did that the first day. Why would it be any different now? I put less stock into the first day voting then I do the second/third day voting

What are you getting from the second day?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Are you asking about the bartender, or the bodyguard?

Sorry that wasn't clear - bartender action blocks. Telle already gave us the info on her actions.

[DaddyTorgo]

re: PurdueBrad's vote for me yesterday - he stated that he had to leave and wouldn't be back...didn't know where to vote so figured he'd put a vote on me since I wouldn't allow myself to be killed

just saying, that's all

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm very not happy about a vote for cronin.

I think that was some excellent vote-analysis that he did there, and collecting up the D1 single-votes

[DaddyTorgo]

I think there's much better targets to look at today. Doesn't mean cronin couldn't be a wolf, but I don't think it's the highest-percentage play

[PurdueBrad]

Got back in late last night (lost my voice at the game but we beat our rival who we haven't beaten in 7 years) but decided to be more reserved to hopefully prove my villager role. So I'll just say, that sucks.

DT, thanks for reminding people of my reasoning and sorry your switch didn't pay off for us.

[MrDNA]

Bug's vote for Cronin after the Saint gave evidence against him smells wolfy to me.

Pretty sure ArlingtonColt voted for me because we're both new and he was just taking a shot in the dark. Knowing that I'm not a wolf (and, of course, saying that will raise suspicion) I would think that he is also not a wolf - or else he would have made a better vote.

UNLESS, he made a silly vote on purpose knowing it would look as such and gain my trust...

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

This is actually a very clear sign for me to pick who to vote for.

Vote - St. Cronin

I'm still curious to see who people think the bartender is

This is a stone cold lock for me that my vote on you is placed correctly. For all concerned, the villagers have the serving tray and it will pass to (hopefully) another villager. I know for a fact that Neon did not have the serving tray at all, otherwise it would've been passed back and forth between the wolves.

[Raiders Army]

Also, that puts olliegirl squarely in my CoT.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

This is a stone cold lock for me that my vote on you is placed correctly. For all concerned, the villagers have the serving tray and it will pass to (hopefully) another villager. I know for a fact that Neon did not have the serving tray at all, otherwise it would've been passed back and forth between the wolves.

For the record, RA, I think we've determined there may have been as many as 3 serving trays to start with. NC, oliegirl, and molson all claimed to have one.

[Raiders Army]

Ugh. Must've missed that part. Hmmm...but two out of three ain't bad.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by MrDNA

Bug's vote for Cronin after the Saint gave evidence against him smells wolfy to me.

Uh, he and I had more or less the same voting pattern and he voted for me and I voted for him?

[st.cronin]

I think the bigger issue, Bug, is that you were calling for the lynch of oliegirl. Molson and oliegirl both announced that they had serving trays, so the wolves would want to try to get those players lynched, rather than risk a night kill on them.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I'm still curious to see who people think the bartender is

Sure, Bug, what the hell, there's only one good role left, might as well burn it, too. Why not ask for a full-on reveal?

Lathum, can I use my super-cool double-voting power from last night to double vote MrBug708???

[Crim]

So, I was thinking that whomever said a bit ago that there may likely be a wolf with a screen name of either path12 or st. cronin could very well be right. These are a couple of smart, experienced players, who are helpful as both villager and as wolf. Figured I'd do some post mining.

Well, all I found with path12 is stuff that I might have said myself. He agreed with me on the virtues of voting DT to get him to prove his dukefulness, and, once I showed up day one, kind of had me cleared... which is only significant to me, of course, since I know I'm good, blah blah blah.

So all I'll say about path is, he's either good, or good at bad, because I don't see anything to incriminate him for. At the moment, of course.

I'll get to cronin next.

[Crim]

Let me preface this post by saying, I have distrusted st.cronin from almost the very beginning. Reading back more carefully, there is some ammo in there, but I think my bad vibe came from the fact that he calls me out as a possible wolf on several occasions. I can't objectively fault him for that, so I left all that out of this exercise. What follows is an out-of-context smidge of interesting (to me) cronin quotes.

Red for incriminating stuff, Green for positive, trust-inspiring stuff.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Just a note, its possible Neon is lying about his role but is still a villager. That would be ballsy, but might work.

This is pretty incriminating, looking back. This was BEFORE the RPI lynch, when we all kind of thought that Neon must either be the seer as he claimed, or at least there was no counter-reveal. cronin may have been setting us up for a further defense of Neon for later on, but that never materialized. cronin is pretty subtle, and it's interesting to me that he threw this comment into the discussion (before even Barkeep notoriously began his crusade), but never revisited it after it was shown that Neon was not the seer, and we were all calling for his head.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I would rather DT save his ability. It may be needed later.

I include this only because I disagree so strongly with it. This was the first in a long string of posts wherein st.cronin argued (effectively, since everyone just about went with him on it) to "save" DT's duke power. I don't have the stomach to re-explain my own pov on this. Suffice to say, I do not agree with cronin on this issue. Obviously those of you who do, will think I'm nuts. Whatev.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I was reading back through the thread, and found that Neon made the following votes:

RPI-Fan
AlanT
Barkeep

On the theory that Neon was the convert trying to get the wolves attention, that would make all those players good. We already know RPI is good, but if Neon is revealed as the goth I'll consider both Alan and BK cleared.

This, though, is a great post, if coming from a villager. Here st.cronin clears Alan T and Barkeep, before anyone else, from studying Neon's votes. Surely this could have just been a brilliant wolf play, but I like that it was helpful to me in my thought process at the time and later, and that it's been later proven to be true.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Simply that I was reading the thread the next day, not knowing what had happened, I was 100% convinced that Barkeep was a wolf. I was totally stunned to discover that he was NOT, but if I had had the knife I would have axed him too. On the other hand if I were a wolf, I think I would have used the knife on somebody else.

Its possible that the wolves would use the knife to gain some trust, but that seems like a very low-percentage play. Better to use the knife on somebody that is trusted than somebody that will get lynched the next day.

This was similar to a statement I had made as well, essentially excusing RendeR for ruining Barkeep's shirt.

And in the last day, cronin has made several helpful analysis-type posts.

All in all, after studying st.cronin's posts, I actually have dropped him off my suspect list. He's now in my "OMFG Idunno" list.

Don't know if this is helpful to anyone else, but it was enlightening to me, at least.

[MrBug708]

I forgot there wasn't a deadline tonight

Originally Posted by Crim

Sure, Bug, what the hell, there's only one good role left, might as well burn it, too. Why not ask for a full-on reveal?

Lathum, can I use my super-cool double-voting power from last night to double vote MrBug708???

I have good reason to wonder. I'd also like to trust someone instead of try everything I can to incriminate someone (like myself) who is pretty obvious that I'm a villager.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think the bigger issue, Bug, is that you were calling for the lynch of oliegirl. Molson and oliegirl both announced that they had serving trays, so the wolves would want to try to get those players lynched, rather than risk a night kill on them.

Again, I had my reasons to call for her. Wasn't she quick to have me strung up?

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Lathum

final vote count

MrBug 6- Molson (679), RaidersArmy (801), Crim (808), Telle (829), Render (862), chiefrum (887)
Telle 4- Cronin (683), Olie (723), Pass (756), MrBug (827)
Oliegirl 1-DNA (752)
Purdue 3- Eagle (620), Path12 (817), HoopsGuy (880)
DT 1- Purdue (732)

I wonder if there's a wolf in this group?

st.cronin- I already had my say about him, I think he's suspicious but not really much more than any of the rank-and-file players.

oliegirl- I was on her earlier, then off based on what someone said after Telle voted her for a bullcrap reason. Now? I need to think this through.

Passacaglia- I really have no read on Pass. I need to look through his posts, and oliegirl's. Maybe tomorrow.

MrBug708- I'm still heavily invested in this guy.


I welcome your thoughts, cronin/oliegirl/pass/Bug, as to why you stayed on Telle after her reveal. Hmm?

[DaddyTorgo]

crim...you're about where i'm at on cronin. Seemed a lil suspicious earlier...seems alright now

[hoopsguy]

Crim and DT - I'm probably tilting the other way on Cronin from you guys. Crim, I liked the posts that you referenced. However, I took some different information from them.

On the "clear three" before Neon was dead - the wolves will know who are villagers and who are wolves. If it is clear that Neon was going to die (and it was) then why not be the first one coming forward with that information? Especially if they had already made the decision to whack Alan that night? Then the only person they are "clearing" is Barkeep, who was doing his best to create doubt by defending Neon.

I agree with your point on Cronin's "Neon might be a villager" post. I had seen it earlier, but was working at that point in time with the idea that Cronin was more likely villager.

I think I want to try and put together a Day 3 vote history chart. I'm not normally a huge fan of this process, but with two of our three days including late reveals, it is taking on a little more significance for me this time around.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Crim

I welcome your thoughts, cronin/oliegirl/pass/Bug, as to why you stayed on Telle after her reveal. Hmm?

This is a difficult tree for you to bark up, IMO. The reveal was done at 9:17 pm (central time) on Friday night, with the deadline 13 minutes later. I'm pretty sure I happened to mention that I'd be going out, but as it's Friday night, I don't think being online for the deadline is a requirement. That's my reason -- I missed it. Bug probably kept his vote on her for self-preservation. I can't speak for cronin on olie -- were they around during those 13 minutes?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Crim

So, I was thinking that whomever said a bit ago that there may likely be a wolf with a screen name of either path12 or st. cronin could very well be right. These are a couple of smart, experienced players, who are helpful as both villager and as wolf. Figured I'd do some post mining.

Well, all I found with path12 is stuff that I might have said myself. He agreed with me on the virtues of voting DT to get him to prove his dukefulness, and, once I showed up day one, kind of had me cleared... which is only significant to me, of course, since I know I'm good, blah blah blah.

So all I'll say about path is, he's either good, or good at bad, because I don't see anything to incriminate him for. At the moment, of course.

I'll get to cronin next.

That was me who said that. Your read seems the same as mine -- I had no read on path, and cronin was mildly suspicious -- I agree with him about wanting to save DT's power, but disagree with the fact that killing BK was excusable (but since so many others seem to think it was excusable, it seems like many villagers might have killed him, which makes me less suspicious of render). I guess I'd like to see what happens with Bug first. If he's a wolf, we might assume that's all we have from that group -- would all of them as wolves vote in a block like that? But with the reveal so late, would they have time to talk about it (maybe they would have it planned in advance, if Neon was not the convert)?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think the bigger issue, Bug, is that you were calling for the lynch of oliegirl. Molson and oliegirl both announced that they had serving trays, so the wolves would want to try to get those players lynched, rather than risk a night kill on them.

Good point. But at this point, do we know if she still has the serving tray? Or if she ever had it? Maybe she claimed to have a tray in order to out molson?

But I see what you're saying about Bug trying to get her lynched, considering. Especially since he's talking about focusing on her Day 5, when he really needs to focus on surviving to Day 5.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Good point. But at this point, do we know if she still has the serving tray? Or if she ever had it? Maybe she claimed to have a tray in order to out molson?

But I see what you're saying about Bug trying to get her lynched, considering. Especially since he's talking about focusing on her Day 5, when he really needs to focus on surviving to Day 5.

I knew DT would save my butt

In actuality, if I was going to die that day, I wanted to make sure the village lynched her the following day

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I knew DT would save my butt

In actuality, if I was going to die that day, I wanted to make sure the village lynched her the following day

I was talking about tonight, not last night. Why her, though? You said something about her being quick to string you up, but I don't see where.

[Crim]

I'm confused about oliegirl. I don't have time right now, but I'm hoping to get a chance to dig around some tonight to see it I can find anything.

Ya know, hoops said a few pages back to me, he's building his COT faster than I'm building my COD (distrust, of course!). I don't get that. I don't mean it sounds suspicious, I mean, maybe because of inexperience, or maybe because of the way I'm wired, all I'm looking for pretty much is dirt on people, and the reasons some of you have thrown around for trusting some of the players (even when clearing me!) never really occur to me at the time. A lot of the times I see what you're referring to, and even agree with some of it once it's pointed out, but for some reason (paranoia?) all I read in real-time is DANGER DANGER DANGER WOLF DANGER!!!11!

Just sayin. Hopefully I'll learn as time goes on. On the other hand, all y'all might really be wolves, and I'm the only human left, cept fer DT, and he'll prolly get converted tonight ohshit.

[hoopsguy]

When I'm reading posts - and it is easier to do when I'm around to take part in the conversation, rather than reading after the fact - I'm looking for cues to trust and to distrust. Sometimes they are wrong - see the stuff where I thought MrBug was the bodyguard - and other times they are right, but I'm trying to get a feel for players and then understand why I have a feel (positive or negative) by going back to posts.

I'm glad the deadline is a little later, as I'm really enjoying watching football this weekend. I haven't had the ability to kick back and have a TV weekend in a long while, so this has been a lot of fun.

[hoopsguy]

Purdue, since it is just the two of us in the thread right now - what are your thoughts on the vote today? I've been concerned with your play because you haven't seemed to have the same level of conviction with your posts and votes this game as the last one we played.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Purdue, since it is just the two of us in the thread right now - what are your thoughts on the vote today? I've been concerned with your play because you haven't seemed to have the same level of conviction with your posts and votes this game as the last one we played.

Hey Hoops, sorry, I didn't see your post. Right now the key post that I've seen is the one from Crim regarding Mr. Bug. I see Crim's points and yet his veracity of statement makes me wonder as well. I'm looking there right now, just not sure which way. I'm hoping to go back during the Bears game and read posts by both, but I do wonder about the sense of trying to get the bartender to give a hint as Bug implied. That worries me.

[PurdueBrad]

Bug, I see you are here. Can you possibly explain a little more. We've just had such bad reveal luck that playing it blind may actually be the better move but I'm willing to listen.

[Chief Rum]

I believe our wolves, quite possibly all of them, are in this group:

PB
Render
cronin
Bug
MrDNA
Pass
path
RA
hoops
ArlColt

This is almost completely based on the Day One vote. I include hoops because I couldn't disclude him with the evidence given, but I don't believe he is a wolf, and would go after him last.

Most suspicious of the above?

Render for killing BK, and Bug for his "errors" forgetting game rules and such. They have both made odd voting decisions, too.

I also get a bad vibe off of cronin, but I haven't pinned down yet what's causing it.

PB, cronin, Bug, path and render--at least--were around when NC's reveal went down. My guess is all wolves were present at that time unless they had an announced reason (work, etc.) for not being there.

Key to my guesswork, so take note: Neon was not a convert, but an original wolf. I have given my reasons for this.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey Chief, a bit lazy right now, who does that mean you have in your COT? If you don't want to answer, completely understood and I'll just backtrack.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey Chief, a bit lazy right now, who does that mean you have in your COT? If you don't want to answer, completely understood and I'll just backtrack.

Yes, I prefer not to answer, because I don't want anyone off of the list to get comfortable. I don't really have proof of anyone's allegiance, on or off the list. But you can reasonably guess that those not on the list above are potential members of a COT.

[PurdueBrad]

NP, there are only a couple that I feel like I can reasonably clear and then a ton of wild cards as well.

I do like the idea of looking back at who was online at NC's reveal because that could've been coordinated (hadn't throught about that).

[hoopsguy]

Another thought on Neon's reveal timing - he would not have had to make the reveal if the people on him were wolves. It was a close race, I don't believe he was up any more than one vote. If there were wolves on him I would expect they could have swapped votes for some reason or another without the "fake seer" gambit coming into play. Time to go look those up ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is a recap, with a couple of comments, on the Day 1 votes:

Post #70 - RendeR votes Hoops
Post #74 - Barkeep votes Telle
Post #75 - RendeR unvotes Hoops, votes Alan
Post #77 - RendeR unvotes Alan, votes DT
Post #78 - RPI votes Oliegirl
Post #82 - Hoops votes RPI
Post #87 - Cronin votes RendeR
Post #95 - RendeR unvotes DT, votes Cronin
Post #107 - Telle votes RPI
Post #111 - RPI unvotes Oliegirl
Post #115 - Pass votes Chief Rum
Post #121 - Neon votes RPI
Post #125 - Barkeep unvotes Telle, votes Pass
Post #129 - Path votes Crim
Post #131 - Alan votes Neon
Post #132 - EagleFan votes Neon
Post #140 - Raiders votes EagleFan
Post #141 - Arlington votes MrDNA
Post #143 - MrDNA votes Alan
Post #148 - Molson votes Cronin
Post #149 - Neon unvotes RPI, votes Alan
Post #151 - RPI votes Neon
Post #154 - RPI unvotes Neon
Post #162 - Barkeep unvotes Pass, votes Neon
Post #167 - EagleFan unvotes Neon, votes Hoops
Post #179 - MrBug votes Barkeep
Post #193 - Neon unvotes Alan, votes Barkeep
Post #194 - Purdue votes RPI
Post #199 - Oliegirl votes Neon
Post #201 - RPI votes Purdue
Post #215 - Purdue unvotes RPI
Post #220 - RPI unvotes Purdue

Post #247 - Neon says he is willing to vote Crim to save himself after it was suggested by both BK and Molson they might be willing to do this. Remember, Neon knows who are the wolves as either a wolf or Goth at this point

Post #251 - EagleFan calls Neon on Post #247, saying "Always waiting to vote with others ..."

Post #289 - Neon fake reveals as Seer

Post #291 - RPI votes Cronin (one minute after Neon, maybe he didn't see the post???)

Post #292 - Neon unvotes Barkeep, votes Alan
Post #296 - Cronin unvotes RendeR, votes RPI
Post #297 - Purdue votes Alan
Post #298 - Path unvotes Crim, votes RPI
Post #299 - Alan unvotes Neon, votes DT
Post #301 - MrBug unvotes Barkeep, votes RPI
Post #302 - Barkeep unvotes Neon, votes DT
Post #308 - Crim votes Path
Post #313 - RendeR unvotes Cronin, votes DT

DEADLINE

Thought I would bring this back up so people can review it if they are so inclined ...

[PurdueBrad]

After reviewing (albeit briefly) I'm locked down to four people, wanting a bit more info/argument about:
Crim
Bug
Stcronin
Olligirl

Crim and Bug I've got my own feeling on but Stcronin and Olligirl have had their names thrown out there so I'm going back over them next I guess.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Another thought on Neon's reveal timing - he would not have had to make the reveal if the people on him were wolves. It was a close race, I don't believe he was up any more than one vote. If there were wolves on him I would expect they could have swapped votes for some reason or another without the "fake seer" gambit coming into play. Time to go look those up ...

Ding, ding, ding.

There's the first key to my list.

[PurdueBrad]

Combining Cheif's list, which makes sense to me, and my list of four, I guess I'm going to narrow down to just three that I'm looking at. Olliegirl came off as safe in his list and the fact that she has a weapon/tool so, given that she isn't lying, means that she is most likely a villager (don't see the sense in starting a wolf with a tool).

So my vote will be coming onto one of the remaining three I had.

[hoopsguy]

Things that make you go hmmm.

Post #167 - EagleFan bails from Neon, who has attracted votes from Alan and Barkeep (known villagers) and puts his vote on me. That put him back in a tie with Cronin and RPI with two votes each.


But Olie put the 3rd vote back on Neon, and no one else had three votes when Neon staged the fake reveal. This is what I show for the votes, based on the above info, when Neon made his move.

Neon - Alan (131), Barkeep (162), Olie (199)
Barkeep - Bug (179), Neon (193)
RPI - Hoops (82), Telle (107)
Cronin - RendeR (95), Molson (148)
Rum - Pass (115)
Crim - Path (129)
Eagle - Raiders (140)
DNA - Arlington (141)
Alan - DNA (143)
Hoops - Eagle (167)
RendeR - Cronin (87)

Alan and Barkeep were villagers and Oliegirl never came back before deadline. So I can see where Neon would feel like he was not necessarily going to be able to shed the votes in time. Again, this is true whether he was wolf or goth. If goth, he couldn't count on movement to save him. As wolf, he might have been trying to help disguise movement to save him.

So, who moved?

Cronin moved to RPI, creating a tie.
Purdue cast his vote on Alan, bringing him one vote back.
Path moves to RPI, vaulting him into the lead.
Alan moves his vote from Neon to DT (we know Alan was a good guy)
MrBug moves his vote from Barkeep to RPI - pushing it to a three vote margin
Barkeep moves his votes from Neon to DT (again, we know Barkeep was a good guy)
RendeR moves his vote from Cronin to DT. O-kay ...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I do like the idea of looking back at who was online at NC's reveal because that could've been coordinated (hadn't throught about that).

Actually, there isn't too much value in that, at least if you assume my point that NC was an original wolf.

The wolves won't have been on Neon in a close race, and there were three other candidates with two apiece, I believe. I am pretty sure everyone who was on Neon when he revealed is not a wolf. There's an interesting name on that list, BTW, that has been thrown around a lot lately.

Even if Neon was the Goth, wolves on him wouldn't likely move off. They don't think he's a Goth at that point, they think he's a seer, their worst enemy.

There also wasn't much time for coordinated efforts, as Neon cam eout with his reveal rather late. And no one knew RPI was the actual seer, so looking specifically at those votes doesn't really make sense. Any of the final votes could have been wolf-saving votes--or just people saving the seer.