|
View Poll Results: Who will (not should) be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008? | |||
Joe Biden | 0 | 0% | |
Hillary Clinton | 62 | 35.84% | |
Christopher Dodd | 0 | 0% | |
John Edwards | 10 | 5.78% | |
Mike Gravel | 1 | 0.58% | |
Dennis Kucinich | 2 | 1.16% | |
Barack Obama | 97 | 56.07% | |
Bill Richardson | 1 | 0.58% | |
Voters: 173. You may not vote on this poll |
|
Thread Tools |
03-04-2008, 09:28 PM | #1051 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Something thing to keep in mind for Texas is that even in the primary, delegates aren't assigned by statewide popular vote. Each of the state Senate districts has delegates assigned to them by the Democrats based on how many people in those districts voted for Kerry in the 2004 election and Chris Bell in the 2006 Governor's race. Some districts have as few as 2 delegates while a couple of others have 8 assigned to them.
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint Last edited by cartman : 03-04-2008 at 09:28 PM. |
03-04-2008, 09:33 PM | #1052 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edinburg,TX
|
Quote:
Thanks, that cleared it up some. It annoys me because my district makes no sense, but then again they clearly want that I guess. I am in district 41, about 100 yards from district 40. My neighbor's brother is running in 40, so his other brother must be the one who lives on the street next to me. I don't like my district, the good people to hate are in 39.
__________________
You Stole Fizzy Lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and steralized, so you get NOTHING! You lose! |
|
03-04-2008, 09:33 PM | #1053 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
My caucus was pretty subdued. We had about 40 people show up, and since I live in a rural area, I think that might have been every Democrat in the area. We signed in, counted up the preferences, and passed a couple of motions to bring to the next level of convention, one regarding the current investigation into our electrical co-op, and another about lack of oversight of the Tx DOT regarding several large projects in our county. It was all over and done in about 45 minutes.
Contrast that to near chaos in some precincts in Austin. The local paper is reporting that cops even had to be called to one. http://www.statesman.com/
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
03-04-2008, 09:52 PM | #1054 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Hillary Clinton has defeated Barack Obama in the great state of Ohio.
|
03-04-2008, 10:02 PM | #1055 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
|
So Hilary wins by 10+ in OH and looks like she might get a 3-5% win in Texas. IMO, she's still got a good shot.
|
03-04-2008, 10:06 PM | #1056 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edinburg,TX
|
Well crap. I really don't want Hillary to be President as of right now, even though the wife voted for her. I was hoping the door would be shut on her tonight. Oh well, I won't be real happy with anyone in the two major parties.
__________________
You Stole Fizzy Lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and steralized, so you get NOTHING! You lose! |
03-04-2008, 10:14 PM | #1057 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edinburg,TX
|
Hillary Clinton is winning my region of Texas 3-1 over Obama. Expected I guess.
__________________
You Stole Fizzy Lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and steralized, so you get NOTHING! You lose! |
03-04-2008, 10:23 PM | #1058 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Did I just hear that no candidate, democrat or republican, has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio in their party's primary. If so, that must bode well for John McCain.
|
03-04-2008, 10:25 PM | #1059 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edinburg,TX
|
My wife and I just realized that we screwed ourselves.
We voted in the primaries, so we are no longer aloud to sign the petition to get Nader on the ballot. Texas blows. I should have known that so I kick myself for it though.
__________________
You Stole Fizzy Lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and steralized, so you get NOTHING! You lose! |
03-04-2008, 10:29 PM | #1060 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: South Florida
|
I think it's going to come down to an grudge oil-wrestling match between Hillary and Obama at the convention.
|
03-04-2008, 10:32 PM | #1061 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how many delegates she picked up. Obama was already up by more than 100. She may have only picked up about 30 depending on how things finish up. Obama can pick some of those back up with wins in Wyoming and Mississippi. It sounds like Hillary is going to go on through Pennsylvania at least. I still don't think she has a good shot, but we'll have a clearer picture when we find out her delegate gain. |
|
03-04-2008, 10:32 PM | #1062 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
|
Wow I am really actually am shocked that Clinton won Ohio and TX. I will officially be voting for the Republican candidate though I have been a lifelong Democrat and a fairly strong supporter of both his message and way Obama has run his campaign. I won't be giving the Clinton mafia my vote in November being now I suspect they will eventually take the dem nom. Clinton only won today because of using the fear bomb, muslim bomb, and race bombs (indirectly) as well as a bunch of dirty policitcs that the Clinton's only a month ago accused Bush and the republicans of resorting to time and again. All Hilary did was give the election to the Reps for the next twenty years as many of the younger Obama supporters will be turned jaded by this whole mudslinging of there candidate by the Cintons. The republicans who voted today just to get the "weaker" opponent might be assholes but they are clever assholes know the less.
Last edited by Galaril : 03-04-2008 at 10:35 PM. |
03-04-2008, 10:35 PM | #1063 | |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Quote:
No way she picks up 30. At most it'll be half of that. It should shake out pretty close to this: Ohio: Hillary +10 Rhode Island: Hillary +3 Texas: Hillary +1 Vermont: Obama +3 So that is a net gain of 11.
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
|
03-04-2008, 10:36 PM | #1064 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Clinton has not won Texas. Metropolitan Dallas and Houston have less than 30% of their vote tallied, and Obama is beating Clinton 3 to 2 in those areas.
|
03-04-2008, 10:39 PM | #1065 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Good work on the math. 11 or anything close to that obviously isn't enough. Momentum schmomentum. Hillary isn't going to win enough delegates from Obama in states like N.C., S.D., Mississippi, Wyoming, Oregon, and so on. This probably just delays the inevitable as we said earlier today and the night gets even better for John McCain.
|
03-04-2008, 10:40 PM | #1066 | |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Quote:
And like I mentioned in the post at the top of this page, statewide vote isn't what determines delegate allocation. Certain areas get more delegates based on how they voted for the Democratic candidates in the 2004 Presidential and 2006 Gubernatorial elections. Two-thirds of the available delegates are assigned this way, and the other one-third are assigned from the results of tonight's caucuses. So yes, in effect, you can vote twice in one day for a candidate.
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
|
03-04-2008, 10:40 PM | #1067 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
|
I think the Republicans voting for Clinton were not doing so to ensure Clinton's nomination, since I think its not at all clear that Obama is a stronger GE candidate, but instead were hoping to ensure a nomination fight, including possibly a bloody convention fight.
|
03-04-2008, 10:40 PM | #1068 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: South Florida
|
Of course, the Clinton camp will undoubtedly try to get the votes counted in the states she won that were disallowed delegates because they held their primaries early without approval from the Democratic Party.
After all the flap about "votes not being counted" during the past two presidential elections, I don't see how the Dems can ultimately deny those states their delegates. Last edited by SFL Cat : 03-04-2008 at 10:41 PM. |
03-04-2008, 10:41 PM | #1069 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
|
By the way, could the Texas Democratic Primary BE any more complicated????
|
03-04-2008, 10:41 PM | #1070 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
|
Quote:
Yep... if Clinton was up by just 100, they'd be voting for Obama in droves.
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
|
03-04-2008, 10:43 PM | #1071 | |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Quote:
Those states will redo their primaries before the democratic convention. Shutting out Michigan and Florida would be political suicide for the democratic party in the general election. |
|
03-04-2008, 10:43 PM | #1072 | |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Quote:
There were scattered reports from today that many people that did this were surprised when they were told after voting for Hillary that they couldn't also vote for the non-Presidential candidates in the Republican primary. I also don't see these cross-over voters coming back to caucus tonight.
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
|
03-04-2008, 10:44 PM | #1073 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
|
Quote:
Hmm, I have heard that there are various reasons why this won't be possible. |
|
03-04-2008, 10:45 PM | #1074 | ||
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Quote:
Not sure if this will make things any clearer. It spells out in detail how the process works. http://www.hro.house.state.tx.us/interim/int80-3.pdf Here's the part on how they apportion the delegates: Quote:
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint Last edited by cartman : 03-04-2008 at 10:50 PM. |
||
03-04-2008, 10:46 PM | #1075 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: South Florida
|
Quote:
Don't know about Michigan, but I know Florida is trying to get it done. And I think Vic is right, if the Dems snub Florida and Michigan, the can kiss any shot at the Presidency goodbye in the GE. Last edited by SFL Cat : 03-04-2008 at 10:47 PM. |
|
03-04-2008, 10:46 PM | #1076 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edinburg,TX
|
Quote:
I didn't know about it before, but figured it out pretty quickly when I got there. I don't like it because the Valley here is pretty much democratic, so the local/state races pretty much come down to the democratic primaries. Still, the big kicker is I screwed up and voted at all, since I can't sign for any third party candidates to get on the November ballot. Again, Texas blows.
__________________
You Stole Fizzy Lifting drinks! You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and steralized, so you get NOTHING! You lose! |
|
03-04-2008, 10:57 PM | #1077 |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Here's an official link showing the discrepancy between statewide vote and number of delegates assigned. It is from the Texas Sec. of State's office. Hillary is up by about 3 percentage points, but Obama has two more delegates.
http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_state.htm (continually updated as more votes come in)
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
03-04-2008, 11:06 PM | #1078 | |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Quote:
If they redo them, Clinton would be favored in both, although certainly not a shoe-in. She is up by double digits in recent Pennsylvania polling (a state similar to Ohio demographically). If she holds on to win Texas, then the only large state (150+ delegates) that Obama will have won will be his home state of Illinois. This thing is going all the way to the convention, and it's going to be a blood bath. |
|
03-04-2008, 11:09 PM | #1079 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: South Florida
|
It will be interesting to watch...that's for sure.
|
03-04-2008, 11:48 PM | #1080 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
|
If Obama loses by 10+ in PA and fades in the remaining significant states, it will be very interesting to see how many of those superdelegates that are making noises about him end up realising that they really want to vote for a Clinton. Do not underestimate the old boys network at work, no matter how much people got caught up in the 11 straight Obama hype.
It's going to get messy, that is for sure. And that's even before you consider potential pressure/controversy/legal wrangling over Michigan and Florida. McCain has got to be laughing right now. |
03-05-2008, 12:06 AM | #1081 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...imary-240.html Actually in the most recent Pennsylvania poll, Hillary was only up by 4%. The poll before that she was up by 6%. RCP average has her up 9% so I'm not sure where you got these misleading numbers from. The rcp average is even misleading as 2 of the 4 polls go back to before Obama's sweep on February 19th. Here is a list of the remaining states: Wyoming Mississippi Pennsylvania Guam North Carolina Indiana West Virginia Oregon Kentucky Montana South Dakota Puerto Rico There's just not enough left for Hillary to win, even with a 10% win in Pennsylvania. Obama will win Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, and who knows about the rest. A 150 delegate deficit is too much to overcome. Hillary Clinton is hanging on with no real shot of winning. She is the new Mike Huckabee. |
|
03-05-2008, 12:17 AM | #1082 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Regardless of what happens, the democrats are in some fairly serious trouble heading into the general election. 25% of Clinton's supporters say they would seriously consider voting for McCain, and 10% of Obama's supporters say they would seriously consider voting for McCain. I suspect those numbers will increase with time.
|
03-05-2008, 12:22 AM | #1083 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
How many McCain supporters say they would seriously consider voting for Obama or Hillary?
|
03-05-2008, 12:36 AM | #1084 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
Seriously? Not many. I have found that most Republicans I know stick to their party lines through thick and thin. But then again, why would McCain supporters consider voting for anyone but McCain?
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. Last edited by Chief Rum : 03-05-2008 at 12:36 AM. |
|
03-05-2008, 12:38 AM | #1085 | |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Quote:
It's a different comparison. 25% of Clinton's supporters would seriously consider voting for McCain if Obama is the nominee, and 10% of Obama's supporters would seriously consider voting for McCain if Clinton is the nominee. |
|
03-05-2008, 12:48 AM | #1086 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
He should have made it more clear or just posted the damn source to his numbers. The Democrats certainly don't benefit by having this drag out for 3 more months. But to say that the Democrats are in serious trouble or that they don't have the advantage in this election is just silly. I think someone earlier today gave a bunch of reasons why. If the Democrats manage to lose this election, they might as well quit all together. |
|
03-05-2008, 12:58 AM | #1087 | |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
|
Quote:
Those numbers were discussed on CNN's election coverage tonight, and the accuracy could certainly be questionable. As for me, I don't have a dog in the fight. I've voted in every election since 1988, and this is the first time in my life I'll be voting for a republican presidential candidate. I would have voted for Richardson or Biden, but once it came down to Clinton, Obama and McCain, it was a fairly easy choice for me. |
|
03-05-2008, 01:38 AM | #1088 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Parañaque, Philippines
|
Quote:
Obama?
__________________
Come and see. |
|
03-05-2008, 01:43 AM | #1089 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Parañaque, Philippines
|
I find it amazing that if Hillary becomes the President, the US will have been under a Clinton or a Bush administration for 6 terms since 1988.
As it is, the US Presidency has been under either clan for the past 20 years!
__________________
Come and see. Last edited by Neon_Chaos : 03-05-2008 at 01:54 AM. |
03-05-2008, 06:31 AM | #1090 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: South Florida
|
Wait 'til Jeb runs.
|
03-05-2008, 07:07 AM | #1091 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
|
Quote:
Dude, just stop. You're like the Mizzou B-Ball Fan of this thread.
__________________
My listening habits |
|
03-05-2008, 08:35 AM | #1092 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
Actually, he's right. This is going to end in a bloodbath. Pretty much what I expected to happen, did happen last night. Hillary got Ohio, she edged Texas in a coin flip. She made up about 35 delegates or so depending on how the final numbers turn out. See my analysis above of how tough it'd have been for Hillary to win if she had taken a +70 delegate advantage. +35? Brutal. But, she's won the big states. She needs to take 62 to 63% of the remaining vote for the dems now. Yet she's going to spin this off as a victory and bash Obama sensless ahead of PA. She'll probably win PA too. But she has virtually no chance of getting the delegate lead. Neither candidate will have enough delegates to lock the nomination so now it's going to go to the super delegates. If Obama wins the overall popular vote and delegates (both almost assured) and the super delegates side with Hillary in a back room deal? We don't even have to bother with a GE. McCain will win going away. The dems will spend the next decade rebuilding the damage caused by the disenfranchised voters, especially the african american vote. If Obama gets it at that point? They have a chance, but the Hillary supporters are rabid and it is no slam dunk that they go to Obama. A large percentage of them will defect. Look at Hillary's own message and quotes which have been said about twenty times the last two weeks "If the phone rings at 3AM and I answer it, we're good. If McCain answers it, wer're good. If Obama answers it, I dunno." If Hillary gets the message through that Obama isn't experienced enough to these people and says that McCain is, what do you think is going to happen in the GE? McCain isn't your typical Bible thumping Republican. The dems bitter "their" candidate lost aren't looking at turning to Bush 3. They are looking at a guy many Reps. dislike because he's so centrist and has went against the party line countless times. If you honestly think there won't be mass defections if this thing gets as bloody as I think it will, you are crazy. Hillary isn't taking the next 16 states (or MI or FL) at 60-62%. It's simply not going to happen. She has no shot of catching Oboma in the delegate count at this point. She's going to try to rely on back room dealings and the super delegates. As I said above, if she wins, she ensures the dems lose the GE yet again. (just my opinion, I could be wrong) |
|
03-05-2008, 08:56 AM | #1093 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
That makes sense -- I'd imagine that most primaries aren't very interesting by this time of year, anyway. |
|
03-05-2008, 08:57 AM | #1094 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Colorado
|
Quote:
I have been getting that over the past 2 weeks in reading many of the strident comments made by Clinton supporters to the news blogs. The common theme was that Sexism is trumping Racism in America and they were pissed about that. Despite the still high negatives for the Clintons, there are a statistically siginificant percentage of Clinton supporters (particularly middle/older white women) that will not vote for a black man. Also included would a segment of the Latino population and good percentage of the Asian population. They will tend to stay home instead. With what you have seen with the Obama surge/coverage, do you believe that there is a great deal of sexist attitudes involved? |
|
03-05-2008, 09:19 AM | #1095 | |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
|
Quote:
Looks like I was way off in Texas and Ohio. She's +16 in Ohio and +4 in Texas (primary only, no caucus). So net gain of 20.
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
|
03-05-2008, 09:21 AM | #1096 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
|
Quote:
I'm a Clinton supporter and if Obama gets the nod, I'd seriously consider voting McCain (forget seriously consider, I'll most likely do it).
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
|
03-05-2008, 09:59 AM | #1097 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
That'd be complete disaster. Move up the percentages by another one or two now. She has to win at a 64 to 66% clip. Does anyone in their ever lovin minds think Hillary is going to win 16 consecutive states 64 to 36? If she went +20, it goes from improbable of getting the lead to impossible. It's not happening. The only way she can win now is by back room dealings with the super delegates. If she had any humility at all, she'd get out now. She won't. |
|
03-05-2008, 10:16 AM | #1098 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
|
Why not hold out for a deal in a brokered convention (such as giving her Senate Majority Leader) rather than just back out now?
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
03-05-2008, 10:24 AM | #1099 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Nov 2003
|
Quote:
maybe President of the Senate?
__________________
“The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.” United States Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis |
|
03-05-2008, 10:26 AM | #1100 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
|
President Pro Tem has usually very little power and is given to the most senior member of the Majority Party.
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|