WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[hoopsguy]

Pass, you believe Alan which means that you believe me. So where do you think we go today if we want to catch a wolf?

[Tyrith]

Pass, if hoops and alan are both bad we just lose. Not having seer scans will have pretty well wrecked us if that's the case. But hoops had every chance to get a kill yesterday, which would have cost us villagers a hundred thousand bucks. I'm highly inclined to trust him at this point. If they screwed us yesterday it was a masterful play, and sometimes you just get outplayed by good players.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, you believe Alan which means that you believe me. So where do you think we go today if we want to catch a wolf?

Sorry I hadn't mentioned it much today -- but I thought everyone just knew that the guy on top of my wolf list was Tyrith.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I'm loathe to punish MrW for buying a dangerous role as a good guy, and being forthcoming about it, on the chance that he may have been converted. I also don't think it does nearly as much damage to us now as it does later in the game, when there are fewer players and a swing in assets is magnified.
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[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry I hadn't mentioned it much today -- but I thought everyone just knew that the guy on top of my wolf list was Tyrith.

By virtue of saving SnDvls yesterday, or voting for you 2nd today?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I'm loathe to punish MrW for buying a dangerous role as a good guy, and being forthcoming about it, on the chance that he may have been converted. I also don't think it does nearly as much damage to us now as it does later in the game, when there are fewer players and a swing in assets is magnified.
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I can understand that, and I'll admit that thinking about the fact that it's just what's in the bank or on hand is not a big deal. I still maintain that the wolves have more interest in him than we do, based on the fact that he can steal their money, which could be large -- and the thief will know to look in what they have on hand, since the wolves won't want to leave too much in the bank, lest the FOB should see it.

[Alan T]

Its time for me to run. Good luck with the lynch today, not sure when I will get home, have to drive to springfield to pick up my daughters and back.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

By virtue of saving SnDvls yesterday, or voting for you 2nd today?

Saving SnDvls, and getting defensive about my ideas on the thief. I'm not sure what to make of the 2nd vote on me, but it doesn't seem like it raises him in my eyes.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

If we need two days to kill him why would we? He won't have any money left when it happens. Especially if we tried to vote him out once and it bounced, the second time doesn't matter -- we'll already be able to get all the info we need from the first time.

i guess the thinking would be "to try to remove one person whom they can pass money to"

but they're always going to be able to maintain their $$ unless someone can't get online to transfer it.

i'm with tyrith on this one surprisingly. i don't see going after alan tonight as the best play.

Mr. W, did you respond to my suggestion of you burning the thief tonight to steal $1 from me?

If you are not in-favor of that plan, that I would urge everyone to vote for you, as we can't have you converted and with the thief i believe.

[DaddyTorgo]

there's a lot of interplay here between alan/hoops/pass going on, like it's swirling like a tornado or something. and then pass fingers tyrith.

it's...interesting. at least giving us something to work on.

i take back what i said about urging people to vote for Weds...i thought i was caught up at that point but i was a page behind

[hoopsguy]

DT, I think I can get behind a "bury the thief" option as well, although the call truly rests with the player with the ability. But the fact that he is drawing heat in multiple directions from people about this power - even when he has been up-front about it - should demonstrate that there concern (and maybe votes) will follow until it is used up.

I would also suggest that we consider someone other than DT, who came up with the plan, as a person to take part as the "robbed" party to avoid concerns with collusion.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, what is your take on what we've seen today with Alan/me/Pass? Do you have strong thoughts on any other directions for the vote today?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Actually all of your money will be lost if we lynch you.

It will only be passed out if you actually pass it out in thread to others.

I was making a direct reference to the likelihood that I would disburse my liquid monies if a bankruptcy were an inevitability. Mind you, I've got enough liquidity that I'm not sure it would be an inevitability.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Pass, if hoops and alan are both bad we just lose. Not having seer scans will have pretty well wrecked us if that's the case. But hoops had every chance to get a kill yesterday, which would have cost us villagers a hundred thousand bucks. I'm highly inclined to trust him at this point. If they screwed us yesterday it was a masterful play, and sometimes you just get outplayed by good players.

this is an interesting post. by the end of the game it may prove to be highly ironic.

FWIW if i'm a wolf i think i go after hoops + alan real early as converts, b/c of their perceived "status." although we know they are both trusted, or at least they trust each other.

whether they trust each other and are both good now, or whether they trust each other and they're both bad (along with Tyrith) and this is some sort of "let's lay the plan out there in disguise since we are so well in control" type of thing so that they can point at it and laugh while we chase our tails, I'm not sure.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT, I think I can get behind a "bury the thief" option as well, although the call truly rests with the player with the ability. But the fact that he is drawing heat in multiple directions from people about this power - even when he has been up-front about it - should demonstrate that there concern (and maybe votes) will follow until it is used up.

I would also suggest that we consider someone other than DT, who came up with the plan, as a person to take part as the "robbed" party to avoid concerns with collusion.

fine by me. i'm all about winning the game for the regular rich folks, at least at this point.

[hoopsguy]

Heh, I wish I was nearly as diabolical as the schemes people think up for me sometimes.

I'm going to trust Alan for a day. We clearly haven't trusted each other all game long.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Heh, I wish I was nearly as diabolical as the schemes people think up for me sometimes.

I'm going to trust Alan for a day. We clearly haven't trusted each other all game long.

it'd be awesome if you were!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cool, although such a detailed answer gives the bad guys a really good idea of how much money you have. Which is why I framed the question as narrowly as I did.

Unlike us, the bad guys know exactly where the service bids fell, so they can work out the exact amount of money on either side of the game. The utility of knowing the finances of a specific player are somewhat limited; it's nice to know of someone with more money, because then there's more chance of being able to trigger inheritance to a cutthroat, but they already know who the main such players are.

[claphamsa]

who has put down votes already?

[DaddyTorgo]

i have not voted and will not do so until after 7pm i'd say it's safe to assume.

[Passacaglia]

I'm about to. I'm leaving in 30 minutes, and will probably put in a vite in 15 minutes.

I can't believe I mistyped it as vite, so I'm leaving it in!

[claphamsa]

wait? ur the bride? :P

[Passacaglia]

Well, I'll put the vote in now, and see if it gets some discussion going before I go.

VOTE TYRITH

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, if/when you arrive and read this maybe you can help me with a question here. When you got Saldana's money, how much of it was in CDs versus a bank account transfer?

Doing a bunch of math, I've determined that I got the proceeds from a $10k, 2-day CD last night, with the balance to my bank account initially as part of the inheritance.

I received $50,612 then. I'm not entirely sure how that adds up.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If I may follow up... Saldana was killed on night 2. There would have been the non-invested $20k, plus $15k for one vote... and it looks like I pocked the other $15k as well. Maybe the cutthroats aren't getting the salary we get for voting if it gets moved into the bank immediately.

[hoopsguy]

I think that makes the vote 2-1-1 Pass over Tyrith and me.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, the "non-invested $20k" looks like it also includes proceeds from a one-day CD.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

If I may follow up... Saldana was killed on night 2. There would have been the non-invested $20k, plus $15k for one vote... and it looks like I pocked the other $15k as well. Maybe the cutthroats aren't getting the salary we get for voting if it gets moved into the bank immediately.

That is consistent with what I received from Lathum - I picked up 37,500 (prior to his CD maturing, then it was a bit more).

I was curious if a peek at bank money by the bad guys on Night 1 showed that Saldana didn't have money in the bank and that would make him more likely to have money on his person when they bumped him off Night 2. But it doesn't sound like this is the case, since he had 20K "non-invested", unless he moved it between N1 and N2 prior to dying.

This point potential supports (Pass = Rich) a little bit, although it would more if I knew what day he had the FOB.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

If I may follow up... Saldana was killed on night 2. There would have been the non-invested $20k, plus $15k for one vote... and it looks like I pocked the other $15k as well. Maybe the cutthroats aren't getting the salary we get for voting if it gets moved into the bank immediately.

I'm not sure about that -- I got 10K from path, and the rest was in a CD. If the 15K was in the bank, I should have received at least that much not in a CD, right? If sal was killed one night 2, could that 15K be from his Day 1 vote?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Double dola, the "non-invested $20k" looks like it also includes proceeds from a one-day CD.

Strike what I said about supporting Pass, as a peek on N1 would have shown 30K invested in CDs and no money in the bank. So that hurts his case a little bit.

[Passacaglia]

I had it Day 1 and Day 2, hoops. Day 3 I forgot to bid.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think that makes the vote 2-1-1 Pass over Tyrith and me.

Pretty sure that's right.

[Passacaglia]

All right, I'm out -- I doubt I will make it back by deadline.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I had it Day 1 and Day 2, hoops. Day 3 I forgot to bid.

Without getting into any discussion on the actual amounts, did you see anything strange in terms of deviation from day to day?

Drilling down into two more specific instances, did you see anything around Tyrith and/or SnDvls, who drew some attention from you as of late?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

SnDvls, what is your take on what we've seen today with Alan/me/Pass? Do you have strong thoughts on any other directions for the vote today?

Sorry been signed in, but not reading it all

I'll comment once I catch up

[Mr. Wednesday]

Regarding what to do with the thief... if there is a strong consensus that the best thing to do with him is burn him tonight, then I am willing to do so.

Pro:
* Removes a dangerous ability that the cutthroats might wish to use to rip a large sum out of the bank, where presumably most of us have been keeping it to avoid having it be taken if we're killed

Con:
* Removes a potentially useful ability that we might wish to use to steal cutthroat money to set up winning the game. We are unlikely to have another clear shot at taking their money, and if they get ahead of us, it turns into a conventional game of werewolf; the only real question right now is who's ahead.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If sal was killed one night 2, could that 15K be from his Day 1 vote?

I'm already accounting for the day 1 vote. There's an extra 15k that could only be from the day 2 vote.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, I'm OK for now with letting you make whatever you think is a good decision on this. But I think that you run the risk of attracting more and more attention as days go by without using this power. Both in terms of likelihood of getting bribed and voters who are anxious about you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

And I should warn you all now, I'm going to a hockey game in about ten minutes, and will probably not make it back home before deadline. So if anything develops in the way of votes on me, I will likely not have the opportunity to defend myself nor shift my money to someone else. For today, that would be very bad for the good side. (though it may make sense to do tomorrow... who knows what the wolves will be up to tonight?)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, I'm OK for now with letting you make whatever you think is a good decision on this.

I don't have a strong feeling either way, and I have a purely selfish interest in holding onto the thief because (as I noted previously) I feel like it makes it less likely that I would be killed and more likely that I would be bribed.

[hoopsguy]

Just make sure you have your business addressed (vote, actions, etc) before heading out.

I'll be looking to put my vote in sometime after 7PM when the kid is off to bed. I've tried to avoid running a bully pulpit at this point in the game, but I also want to make sure that if someone is going to be on the receiving end of the vote they have time to move their finances (if possible). Hopefully that is possible on a Friday night in the event that we end up going in the wrong direction ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I don't have a strong feeling either way, and I have a purely selfish interest in holding onto the thief because (as I noted previously) I feel like it makes it less likely that I would be killed and more likely that I would be bribed.

Yep, but more likely to be bankrupted by fearful Rich too. If you are looking to live long and prosper with the Rich I think it makes sense to use it (in whatever way you see fit) earlier in the game. I don't think you will be afforded the opportunity to bank it until we are down to five players or anything all that close to that number where it would have its greatest impact.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

And I should warn you all now, I'm going to a hockey game in about ten minutes, and will probably not make it back home before deadline. So if anything develops in the way of votes on me, I will likely not have the opportunity to defend myself nor shift my money to someone else. For today, that would be very bad for the good side. (though it may make sense to do tomorrow... who knows what the wolves will be up to tonight?)

ur drivign to oxford for #1 Vs #2?

[Mr. Wednesday]

No, staying here for #8 vs. (unranked).

But good luck taking down the evil Wolverines.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Two on Pass, two on Tyrith.

I'm going to keep things open and add in another candidate.
VOTE Chief Rum

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I have my other affairs in order for the day cycle. DT, if you want to go ahead with the theft plan, make a note in-thread and I'll take care of it tonight.

[SnDvls]

I honestly don't like any of the canidates with votes now so I'm going to vote where I did yesterday.

vote The Jackyal

[Tyrith]

Concerns me that more people haven't voted by now, considering that friday nights are typically so slow.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay. What's the latest?

[DaddyTorgo]

I think we should go ahead with the thief-plan since Mr. W is basically offering it. As hoops stated, he'd like to see someone other than me on the end of it...I'm open to anyone. And I should be around pretty much all night.

I don't have any real thoughts on who to vote for yet.