Who will (not should) be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008?

[Arles]

BTW, did anyone see the SNL skit last night with Obama, Jesse and Sharpton? I can't remember the last time I laughed so hard:

[Dutch]

That's about the most critical thing I've ever seen about Obama. SNL must be racists.

[Greyroofoo]

Anybody remember when SNL was funny?

[Arles]

I think that's pretty solid humor. Talking in a broom closet with Jesse and sending both Jesse and Al to the 4 corners of the world to avoid a negative impact from them.

IMO, SNL at spots is still pretty funny. It's just not the event it once was because of all the additional stations out there. I probably watch it once a month (used to watch it every week) and I would probably say it's close to as funny as I remember it being in the 80s-90s. The difference now is that there are other shows on/things to do that I just enjoy more on a Saturday night than I did back then.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Dutch

That's about the most critical thing I've ever seen about Obama. SNL must be racists.

Well you must have missed this from the AP.

Obama May Face Grilling on Patriotism
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080223/D8V053E00.html

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Well you must have missed this from the AP.

Obama May Face Grilling on Patriotism
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080223/D8V053E00.html

How many articles on Obama did you have to read before you found that one? And it blatantly blames Republicans and conservative radio talk show hosts and Fox News for the "grilling" throughtout the entire article. Score one for Obama!

Let's keep this in perspective.

[JPhillips]

You could always look at the inexperience stories or the Rezko stories or the Farrakhan stories or the voted present stories or the internet rumors may hurt him stories. But you are right, if you ignore all critical stories there are only positive stories.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

You could always look at the inexperience stories or the Rezko stories or the Farrakhan stories or the voted present stories or the internet rumors may hurt him stories. But you are right, if you ignore all critical stories there are only positive stories.

What the deal with Rezko and Farrakhan? Never heard about that.

[Big Fo]

Rezko is the "Chicago slumlord" that Obama did a real-estate deal with once, Clinton brought him up in one of the debates. You might want to google that to get more in depth.

Farrakhan endorsed (it might not have been a formal endorsement, perhaps "came out in support of" fits better) Obama, Tim Russert asked Obama if he accepted Farrakhan's support. Obama's responce was “You know, I have been very clear in my denunciation of Minister Farrakhan’s anti-Semitic comments,” Obama said. “I think that they are unacceptable and reprehensible. I did not solicit this support. He expressed pride in an African-American who seems to be bringing the country together. I obviously can’t censor him, but it is not support that I sought. And we’re not doing anything, I assure you, formally or informally, with Minister Farrakhan." Shortly after Clinton jumped in and the two wasted time debating whether it was better to reject his support or denounce his support, Obama ended it by saying he rejected and denounced Farrakhan's support.

Man I'm excited for tomorrow night, hopefully the Clintons see the writing on the wall after what should be a decent night for Obama supporters.

[Scoobz0202]

http://trailblazers.beloblog.com/arc...-strategy.html

Tough Caucus Strategy

3:31 PM Sat, Mar 01, 2008 | Permalink
Christy Hoppe E-mail News tips
Hillary Clinton and her campaign is pushing for precinct captains for Texas' 8,000 Democratic polling places. They need to train folks to lead the caucus sessions that will determine more than 60 delegates after the primary voting is over.
In training materials being handed out by the Clinton campaign, it is clear that they want to control those caucus sessions.
The materials say in part, "DO NOT allow the supporter of another candidate to serve in leadership roles."
It goes on to say, "If our supporters are outnumbered, ask the Temporary Chair if one of our supporters can serves as the Secretary, in the interest of fairness.
"The control of the sign-in sheets and the announcement of the delegates allotted to each candidate are the critical functions of the Chair and Secretary. This is why it is so important that Hillary supporters hold these positions."

God, I can't wait to see the look of resignation after she realizes tomorrow Obama is going to win the nomination.

[Big Fo]

I'm already anticipating her "my night-job working voterbase is once again disenfranchised by the caucus system" complaining after the delegates are basically split in Texas. It should be fantastic.

[Vegas Vic]

Uh-oh. "She's baaaaaack!

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Uh-oh. "She's baaaaaack!

Polls don't mean much especially in Tx where alot of hispanic voters are not polled. ANyways the pop vote doesn't matter a smuch as the delegates and I am sure at the end of the night Obama will have earned more Delegates than her albeit only a few more.

[Jas_lov]

Finishing a little bit ahead of Obama in Texas and Ohio is meaningless. She has to blow him out and pick up signifcant delegate gains. It doesn't look like that will happen in Texas, but if it does then she's back. The last poll from Zogby in Ohio had it tied 44-44. Even if she only wins 55-45, it ain't enough.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Polls don't mean much especially in Tx where alot of hispanic voters are not polled. ANyways the pop vote doesn't matter a smuch as the delegates and I am sure at the end of the night Obama will have earned more Delegates than her albeit only a few more.

From what I can see of the delegate count, she needs more than a 2 point win in Texas. Her handlers keep saying that just one more popular vote in Texas is all they want, but I think she needs a lot more than that. Anything less than a couple of ten point blowouts in Ohio AND Texas tonight puts her in real trouble. If Obama were to lose Texas and Ohio by under 5% each, Hillary doesn't make up enough ground to reverse the last month of defeats.

It would, however, keep her in the race a lot longer. Probably until convention. If that happens, I'm not sure how the dems are going to be able to unify the party and recover in time for the general election.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

The last poll from Zogby in Ohio had it tied 44-44. Even if she only wins 55-45, it ain't enough.

Picking out a single poll usually isn't very accurate. The cumulative polling over the past three days in Ohio has Clinton up by 7 points.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Picking out a single poll usually isn't very accurate. The cumulative polling over the past three days in Ohio has Clinton up by 7 points.

Which again, isn't enough. I think her only real shot to win the nomination rests on double digit wins in Texas and Ohio.

I don't think it's likely she gets them.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Picking out a single poll usually isn't very accurate. The cumulative polling over the past three days in Ohio has Clinton up by 7 points.

The bottom line is that it's not enough for her to catch Obama in elected delegates. The most recent poll has it tied. Hillary will still probably win Ohio, but not by enough for it to matter. As Troy said, it'll just delay the inevitable. And as I said before, even winning 55-45 in both states just won't get it done.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

The bottom line is that it's not enough for her to catch Obama in elected delegates. The most recent poll has it tied. Hillary will still probably win Ohio, but not by enough for it to matter. As Troy said, it'll just delay the inevitable. And as I said before, even winning 55-45 in both states just won't get it done.

If she were to win by double digits in Ohio and Texas, it could turn the momentum. She'd have to win something like 60% of the remaining vote to do it, but it'd keep things within the realm of possiblity and I could see her continuing on.

Anything less than the ten point blowouts and she doesn't make up nearly enough delegates for it to matter. At that point she's in the race not to win it, but to finish as close of a second as she can. I think she is going to win Ohio by 6-8 points today and Texas will be a coin flip. That makes it likely she stays in and turns this thing into a real bloodbath (even with little shot of winning) as we head toward the convention.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by TroyF

It would, however, keep her in the race a lot longer. Probably until convention. If that happens, I'm not sure how the dems are going to be able to unify the party and recover in time for the general election.

Since when have either of the Clintons cared about anything other than themselves?

[Jas_lov]

It might change the momentum going into Pennsylvania where she also has to win big, but is it enough for Hillary to defeat Obama in states like North Carolina, Montana, Oregon, Indiana, South Dakota, and all of these states that Obama has been winning?

Between tonight and Pennsylvania, there are 2 contests- Mississippi and Wyoming both of which Obama will win. She's behind by over 100 elected delegates. She needs to pick up big chunks because she ain't gonna beat him in the majority of remaining states. We'll see how many delegates she picks up tonight. If it's not enough to close the gap considerably, it's over.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

It might change the momentum going into Pennsylvania where she also has to win big, but is it enough for Hillary to defeat Obama in states like North Carolina, Montana, Oregon, Indiana, South Dakota, and all of these states that Obama has been winning?

Between tonight and Pennsylvania, there are 2 contests- Mississippi and Wyoming both of which Obama will win. She's behind by over 100 elected delegates. She needs to pick up big chunks because she ain't gonna beat him in the majority of remaining states. We'll see how many delegates she picks up tonight. If it's not enough to close the gap considerably, it's over.

Momentum can turn quickly, so if Hillary were to at least win by double digits in Ohio and Texas tongiht, she could at least make a plausable case that it is worth continuing the fight. The problem is this is all moot. I don't see her winning Texas and Ohio by double digits. The only way she leaves the race is if she gets destroyed in both places tonight.

In other words, I'm you 100% on this. I think tonight means nothing in the long run. Obama still will win, Hillary will still stay in and continue to bash Obama sensless. Then it's going to be up to the dems to find a way to unite and hit the ground running come August. McCain has to be loving every bit of this right now.

[Vegas Vic]

Keep in mind, Florida and Michigan are considering redoing their primaries, and it remains to be seen how that will affect the overall delegate count.

[Fidatelo]

Why would McCain love this? Obama/Clinton is getting 90% of the press right now (at least up here in Canada), and will continue to do so until it's over. During this, despite Hillary's attempts, I don't think Obama has lost a step. Meanwhile McCain sits there waiting and forgotten.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Keep in mind, Florida and Michigan are considering redoing their primaries, and it remains to be seen how that will affect the overall delegate count.

It wouldn't be enough Vegas. The math is pretty astronomical here. Let's give Hillary a +70 delegate count tonight. That'd be a huge win for her. of the 370 available tonight, she'd get 220, Obama 150. That puts Obama at 1334 and her with 1181. She's now down 153 total delegates with 611 left to fight over. (more if you add MI and FL of course, to that in a bit)

If that's the case, she needs to get 383 of the remaining 611 delegates to win the war. That's over 62% of the remaining votes. Do you understand how improbable that is? Go ahead and revote MI and FL. She still needs betweent 58 to 60% of all the remaining votes to go to her.

FWIW, if she takes Texas and Ohio by 5 points tonight, she'd make up 38 total delegates, not counting the 36 left over in Vermont and Rhode Island.

You can say what you want about the Super Delegates, but if they end up going against the true delegate count, I think you can stick a fork in the dems this year. There will be so many disenfranchised voters, McCain wouldn't have to do a thing.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Why would McCain love this? Obama/Clinton is getting 90% of the press right now (at least up here in Canada), and will continue to do so until it's over. During this, despite Hillary's attempts, I don't think Obama has lost a step. Meanwhile McCain sits there waiting and forgotten.

Wrong. There won't be any happy, happy fun time for the dems until their nominee is picked. Hillary is going all out after Obama now. She's going to attack the living daylights out of him. We aren't talking positive press here, the two candidates are going to bloody each other.

Study some history and tell me how well it's went for either side when they've had bloody battles in the primary season. It has rarely translated well to the general election. Obama and Hillary will spend upwards of 30 million dollars in PA if Hillary stays in it. You honestly think that money wouldn't be more helpful to store up now and spend on McCain in October?

[TroyF]

Double Dola: For Hillary to get that +70 win tonight? That'd mean she takes Texas 60/40. She takes Ohio 60/40. She splits both Rhode Island and Vermont.

You see how astronomical the odds are for her even if she does it. If she scrapes out under 10 point wins in both states? This is over and done with. I don't care about FL and MI.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Wrong. There won't be any happy, happy fun time for the dems until their nominee is picked. Hillary is going all out after Obama now. She's going to attack the living daylights out of him. We aren't talking positive press here, the two candidates are going to bloody each other.

Study some history and tell me how well it's went for either side when they've had bloody battles in the primary season. It has rarely translated well to the general election. Obama and Hillary will spend upwards of 30 million dollars in PA if Hillary stays in it. You honestly think that money wouldn't be more helpful to store up now and spend on McCain in October?

But for all of Hillary's efforts, where is it getting her? And what will McCain have left to say that Hillary didn't already try? And doesn't momentum count for something?

I'm not a student of U.S. politics so I'll trust that you are correct historically, and I'm certainly open to being wrong on all of this. It just seems, from what I see up here anyways, that everyone is talking about Obama, almost always in a positive light.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

But for all of Hillary's efforts, where is it getting her? And what will McCain have left to say that Hillary didn't already try? And doesn't momentum count for something?

I'm not a student of U.S. politics so I'll trust that you are correct historically, and I'm certainly open to being wrong on all of this. It just seems, from what I see up here anyways, that everyone is talking about Obama, almost always in a positive light.

That's the problem, you can't build up momentum at this point. Look at the likely result tonight. Hillary wins Ohio. She maybe scrapes out a tie or a one point win in Texas. Where is the Obama momentum now? Now we have another 30 million or so being blown in PA, maybe more.

What will McCain say that Hillary hasn't? Well, he'll have examples of what worked, what didn't and how well. (these guys have pollsters all over the country, this is more than just Texas and Ohio tonight. McCain may follow up on Hillary's attacks. He'll certainly try to get the Hillary voters to move to his side. Ohio is an important state, let's say Hillary takes it by 7 points tonight and then Obama still gets the nomination. (both VERY likely to happen) Now McCain uses the same message Hillary had with the Ohio.

I'm not saying McCain is going to breeze through the election. He's going to have it tough. But he's happy as pie if the dems turn this into a bloodbath to the convention. They'll be spending resources, giving him valuable information about what attacks work and what attacks don't, and he'll have his organization on the ground running 2 months before the dems have thiers going. If you think money and intrastructure don't matter here, you are kidding yourself.

The Republicans are presently setting their money aside and starting to store the coffers. Hillary and Obama are raising a ton of money and spending it as quick as they get it. You tell me who has the advantage the longer this continues?

[Malificent]

Originally Posted by TroyF

That's the problem, you can't build up momentum at this point. Look at the likely result tonight. Hillary wins Ohio. She maybe scrapes out a tie or a one point win in Texas. Where is the Obama momentum now? Now we have another 30 million or so being blown in PA, maybe more.

What will McCain say that Hillary hasn't? Well, he'll have examples of what worked, what didn't and how well. (these guys have pollsters all over the country, this is more than just Texas and Ohio tonight. McCain may follow up on Hillary's attacks. He'll certainly try to get the Hillary voters to move to his side. Ohio is an important state, let's say Hillary takes it by 7 points tonight and then Obama still gets the nomination. (both VERY likely to happen) Now McCain uses the same message Hillary had with the Ohio.

I'm not saying McCain is going to breeze through the election. He's going to have it tough. But he's happy as pie if the dems turn this into a bloodbath to the convention. They'll be spending resources, giving him valuable information about what attacks work and what attacks don't, and he'll have his organization on the ground running 2 months before the dems have thiers going. If you think money and intrastructure don't matter here, you are kidding yourself.

The Republicans are presently setting their money aside and starting to store the coffers. Hillary and Obama are raising a ton of money and spending it as quick as they get it. You tell me who has the advantage the longer this continues?

Rush Limbaugh is asking his listeners to vote for Hillary in the primary so as to extend the Democratic nomination process. That indicates to me that it is a bad thing for the Democrats.

[Fidatelo]

Those are all excellent points TroyF. I will bow to your knowledge on this one

[JPhillips]

The money isn't that big of a deal. Right now both Dems are spending money allotted to the primaries. All of those donors can max out again after the convention. Either Dem candidate will have plenty of money come September and probably more than McCain.

As for a tough primary hurting the candidate, I'm not sure. A long primary also poses problems for the opposition candidate. Who do they run against? How do they get their message out when the other side's campaign is far more interesting? I think it also toughens up the eventual winner provided nothing happens that splits the party. If this goes until the convention I think it's a problem, but if it lasts through May I don't think that in itself is a big deal.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The money isn't that big of a deal. Right now both Dems are spending money allotted to the primaries. All of those donors can max out again after the convention. Either Dem candidate will have plenty of money come September and probably more than McCain.

As for a tough primary hurting the candidate, I'm not sure. A long primary also poses problems for the opposition candidate. Who do they run against? How do they get their message out when the other side's campaign is far more interesting? I think it also toughens up the eventual winner provided nothing happens that splits the party. If this goes until the convention I think it's a problem, but if it lasts through May I don't think that in itself is a big deal.

They are RAISING money and spending it as quickly as they get it. It isn't lock, set and match that they'll get maxed out again before the election. It's also a little optomistic to think they'll have more cash than McCain. The Reps can raise an amazing amount of money quickly. I'd be surprised if they didn't raise more cash at than the dems this year.

[Galaril]

Yeah, this extend Dem fight has really fucked the Democrats. Hilary should quit tomorrow unless she wins by agregate percent differnce of 10%.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by TroyF

They are RAISING money and spending it as quickly as they get it. It isn't lock, set and match that they'll get maxed out again before the election. It's also a little optomistic to think they'll have more cash than McCain. The Reps can raise an amazing amount of money quickly. I'd be surprised if they didn't raise more cash at than the dems this year.

After 8 years of Bush Jr., do you really think it's going to be hard for the Democrats to fund raise for the General Election?

Uhhhh, no.

[JPhillips]

In January McCain raised 12 mil. Hillary was over 20 and Obama was over 30. February showed the same kind of discrepency. The Reps are having a fair amount of trouble raising money this cycle. The RCCC is in the red as of now and the combined totals of the different candidates show a significant advantage for the Dems. The only place the Republicans are doing well is at the national committee level. There's no reason to think that the Dem candidate won't be equal or ahead in funds this cycle.

Of course all donors won't max out again, but they'll also have two sets of donors to work from. The important thing is to remember that the 2000 dollar cap applies to both the primary and general. All of the primary donors for these candidates can give again for the general and a lot of them will. It's two separate funds and both the Dem candidate and McCain can't start over until after they are officially nominated. Money won't be an issue.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

After 8 years of Bush Jr., do you really think it's going to be hard for the Democrats to fund raise for the General Election?

Uhhhh, no.

Actually. . . yes.

Bush was as hated four years ago as he is now. The dems felt the first election was stolen from them and they were out in force. It failed.

Blind hatred won't work. It's going to take a unified belief that their candidate can win. Obama has a great chance to be that candidate. But where do the Hillary supporters go when she dies off? Worse, what happens to the Obama faction if Hillary stages a miracle come back?

McCain has an (R) next to his name, but he was a guy rumored to be flipping to a (D) just a few years ago. The uglier this campaign gets for the dems, the more likely it is that a good portion of the losing dems supporters either:

a) cross party lines and vote for McCain

or

b) stay home, don't give money or time to the dem candidate.

or

c) vote green or write in Daffy Duck or whatever

The Dems should win this election. They hold all the cards. But I wouldn't count on money continuing to be raised at these levels throughout the election process. And I would not underestimate the Reps ability to raise funds when they need it.

[Buccaneer]

Troy is right, just 3 failed Reps (Guiliani, Thompson and Romney) had raised almost $200 million themselves. And despite perceptions to the contrary, the polls between the D-R still show a toss-up.

[JPhillips]

I'm not saying McCain is going to breeze through the election. He's going to have it tough. But he's happy as pie if the dems turn this into a bloodbath to the convention. They'll be spending resources, giving him valuable information about what attacks work and what attacks don't, and he'll have his organization on the ground running 2 months before the dems have thiers going. If you think money and intrastructure don't matter here, you are kidding yourself.

The Republicans are presently setting their money aside and starting to store the coffers. Hillary and Obama are raising a ton of money and spending it as quick as they get it. You tell me who has the advantage the longer this continues?

No, Troy isn't right. McCain may wind up winning the elction, but money and infrastructure won't be the reason. The Republicans will at best be at even money this cycle. In 2004 the money was pretty even if you include 527s and party funds as well as candidate money, and there's no reason to see the Republicans changing that this cycle especially when they have been significantly outraised by the Dem candidates, the DCCC and the RSC. The only reported money that shows a Republican advantage is at the National Committee level. Look at the numbers so far for 2008 and there's no way you can rationally argue that the Republicans will have a funding advantage.

As for infrastructure, your points a little better, but contested primaries tend to turn out voters. These primaries have done far more for the Dem brand and email/donor lists than a clear path for Hillary would have. Only if the nomination drags until the convention will there be a significant backlash against one of the candidates. If this is determined by the summer McCain gets no "process" advantage whatsoever.

None of this adds up to a guaranteed victory as I still think McCain is the best candidate for the general, but arguing that the Republicans have the advantage is silly. There isn't any data at this point to suggest that's true. If you were running would you rather have more money so far, much higher turnout so far, the opposition president at 30% approval, likely indictments against the opposition Congressional committee, or not?

[Big Fo]

Exit polls suggest Obama won by a landslide in Vermont. 13 in a row now...

[Jas_lov]

Barack Obama has defeated Hillary Clinton in the great state of Vermont.

10% of Ohio Primary voters are Republicans. Are they Obamacans or Rush Limbaugh listeners? Stay tuned.

[Jas_lov]

Ohio is too close to call. Too close to call.

[Vegas Vic]

I know Texas is a big state, but WTF? 1% of the precincts = 800,000+ votes?

[Jas_lov]

Maybe they include early voting in that 1%. Still no solid numbers from Ohio as they extended some precincts poll closing times. Texas should come in quicker than Ohio.

[Jas_lov]

Texas is too close to call. Obama is ahead with almost 1 million votes in. Rhode Island is too close to call with no numbers in.

[Jas_lov]

Hillary Clinton has won the great state of Rhode Island.

Texas and Ohio still haven't been called. Obama is up in Texas and Hillary is up in Ohio.

[cartman]

Just got back from my district caucus. Obama got the alloted delegates for our district.

[Cringer]

The only way I was going to vote for the democratic side of things today was if my local elections mattered. Since all the democrats I want out of office and would have voted against are not in my district, I took the Republican choice so I could vote for Ron Paul. Nobody else got my vote, which didn't matter since they didn't have any competition.

Voting Republican was fun, except for having to wait around for the wife. It was an long wait for the democratic party, while I just walked up to the table and voting booth with no wait.

BTW, anyone know of a site that has the Texas districts? My wife and I were highly confused when we drove down the road to our polling location and find out that a couple races we thought we would be able to vote in were not in our district. Kind of weird when one of the races involves a guy who lives a street over from me and his brother lives 4 houses down from me. Not being in that district would have put me in another district with a race I would have voted in, but nope. I want to see where the hell I am because the map I looked at must have been wrong....

[Jas_lov]

Hillary is up by 16% with 35% reporting in Ohio. Obama is up by 2% with 15% reporting in Texas.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Cringer

BTW, anyone know of a site that has the Texas districts? My wife and I were highly confused when we drove down the road to our polling location and find out that a couple races we thought we would be able to vote in were not in our district. Kind of weird when one of the races involves a guy who lives a street over from me and his brother lives 4 houses down from me. Not being in that district would have put me in another district with a race I would have voted in, but nope. I want to see where the hell I am because the map I looked at must have been wrong....

Go here:

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

and click on State House Districts. It'll open up a new window that will allow you to zoom in. Hidalgo County looks to be split up pretty good, with a couple of streets I see belonging to three different districts!