So The Superbowl is Over (Unofficial 2007 NFL Draft/Free Agency Thread)

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

If Larry Johnson is that old, how old exactly is Greg Oden?

Greg Oden was on the Viking longboats when they raided Lindisfarne.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by Fonzie

Of course, if this trade goes down and the Packers also somehow manage to trade for/sign Randy Moss (Favre seems to be somehow very certain that this will happen), the Packers' offense will suddenly look downright respectable.

Did you just say Randy Moss and respectable in the same sentence?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The problem with this argument is that it doesn't take into account (or worse, appears to credit him for) his huge workload for the past 2 seasons. I think his average per season works against him when you throw out the first 1.5 - 1.75 years of his career.

Put it this way...you could have 2 RBs each average 250 carries a year for 4 years, but if 1 of them had no less than 200 and no more than 300 in any one season, and 1 of them had 2 years averaging 150 carries a year and then the last 2 years average 350, who would you rather have, all things (age, productivity, injury status, contract) equal?

I'm not saying this isn't necessarily a good idea for GB, but I don't see the Faulk comparison as being accurate at all.

You have three RBs:

Carries for RB1 - 314, 289, 198, 264, 324
Carries for RB2 - 339, 372, 313
Carries for RB3 - 20, 120, 336, 416

Are you really saying that the third RB has the most wear and tear? I find that very hard to believe. There's no reason to think that LJ will have anymore wear and tear on him than Faulk did when he went to the Rams or LT when he signed his huge deals. If either Buffalo or Green Bay can get LJ for what amounts to a pick between 10 and 15, I would be shocked. LJ has atleast 4 more very good years in him and giving up that production for someone like Paul Posluszny, Marshawn Lynch or Alan Branch is insane from a football standpoint. Now, if it's just about money, I can see some argument. Still, LJ is going to be a beast over the next 3-4 seasons so he should get paid like a top RB.

[Fonzie]

Profootballtalk.com is reporting a rumor about the Packers having offered a 4th-rounder for Moss.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

You have three RBs:

Carries for RB1 - 314, 289, 198, 264, 324
Carries for RB2 - 339, 372, 313
Carries for RB3 - 20, 120, 336, 416

Are you really saying that the third RB has the most wear and tear? I find that very hard to believe.

Yes, that's exactly what I believe. But frankly, it was just a common sense argument I was making (well, common sense to me anyway); I didn't have anything to back it up. And then I did a search and found this, which seems to make my point for me, with case studies. I'm not saying the guy is destined to blow out his knee next year or will definitely decline, but history suggests it's certainly likely:



370 Carries Revisited

1/1/2007
by Aaron Schatz

All season long, when talking about Shaun Alexander’s problems, you’ve seen us refer to the “Curse of 370.” You’ve also seen that term as we tracked Larry Johnson’s high number of carries all season long. Now that Johnson has set the NFL record with 416 carries in the regular season, the “Curse of 370″ is showing up in everything written by Football Outsiders. We wanted to help those who were new to our site understand the Curse of 370, which is something we’ve been writing about for three years. The first article about 370 carries appeared in the book Pro Football Forecast 2004, and was also published on our site when Ricky Williams retired in July 2004. You’ll find that article here. A sequel article appeared in the Seattle chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2006, and it is republished in its entirety below. Just so people understand, there’s nothing magical about carry number 370 that makes a running back blow out his ACL, any more than there is something special about pitch 100 that makes a pitcher’s arm fall off. It’s simply a useful shorthand to represent the fact that overworking your running back with too many carries is a bad thing. The punishment gets worse and worse with more carries, and 370 is a close approximation of the tipping point.

Since we began doing football research a few years ago, we’ve developed a number of axioms that tend to come up over and over again, both on our Web site and in Pro Football Prospectus. With both Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James entering free agency this off-season, one precept in particular got a lot of attention: the 370-carry theory.

The 370-carry theory is generally summarized as follows: “A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.”

Some recent examples of the 370-carry theory in action include Curtis Martin’s collapse last year [i.e. 2005], Jamal Lewis’s struggles for the last two years, and Ricky Williams falling from 4.8 yards per carry in 2002 to 3.5 yards per carry in 2003. Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and James each tore his ACL a year after going over 370 carries. The 370-carry barrier helped destroy the careers of Earl Campbell, Barry Foster, and Gerald Riggs.

But when looking at the question of how much to pay Alexander and James this off-season, the 370-carry theory seemed a bit limited. Why should a running back like James, who is used so much in the passing game, have his workload be defined solely by carries without considering receptions? And why should our count end before the playoffs, when Alexander added another 20 carries per game through the Super Bowl?

Let’s examine each question in turn. The first issue is whether “touches” are a better measure of workload than carries, with touches equaling the total of each back’s carries and receptions for a given year. From 1978 through 2004, 60 running backs had seasons of at least 340 carries.

Comparing the number of carries for each running back with the number of yards he gained the following year gives us a correlation coefficient of -.24. In other words, as players carry the ball more, they are less likely to run for as many yards the following year, due to a mixture of lost effectiveness and injury. If we want to measure only effectiveness (yards per carry) or playing time (total carries) the correlations are similar.

If we take the same 60 running backs and compare touches to yards the following year, the correlations are roughly half as large. This suggests that carries are a better indicator of workload than touches. Compare just receptions to rushing yards the following year, not even considering carries, and it is clear why: the correlation between receptions and yards the following year is actually positive, albeit tiny. If more receptions indicate anything, it is that a player will gain more yards the following year, in particular more yards per carry.

Correlation between running back usage and year-to-year improvement or decline, 1978-2005
Minimum 340 carries (60 players)
Year-to-year change in…	Yards	Yd/Car	Carries
Carries	-.24	-.25	-.22
Touches	-.12	-.09	-.13
Receptions	.06	.12	.02
Minimum 300 carries and 25 receptions (121 players)
Year-to-year change in…	Yards	Yd/Car	Carries
Carries	-.17	-.05	-.14
Touches	-.06	.00	-.03
Receptions	.20	.10	.22

Using a larger sample of players not only gives the same result, but makes the correlation between receptions and improvement in rushing yardage more significant. 121 players between 1978 and 2004 had 300 or more carries and 25 or more receptions. For these running backs, the correlation between carries and rushing yardage the next year was -.17, but the correlation between receptions and rushing yardage the next year was .20. That’s two relationships of similar strength in opposite directions.

(The reaction of most statisticians at this point would be that these correlations are extremely small. This is simply a fact of life when talking about the NFL, where so many factors contribute to a player or team’s performance — many of them intangible — that no one factor will have a particularly large impact on its own.)

So if more receptions don’t mean a greater chance of breakdown the following year, what about playoff carries?

This is where we have bad news for Seattle fans. It does look like postseason carries matter, with 390 carries total forming a barrier equivalent to 370 regular-season carries. Above that line, a number of players were either injured or lost effectiveness. And while Shaun Alexander just barely touched the 370-carry barrier, he flew past 390 carries once the Seahawks got into the postseason, ending the playoffs with 430 carries total.

Not counting Alexander, there have been 14 players who did not reach 370 carries in the regular season, but surpassed 390 carries during the postseason. Though some of these players continued to play well the next season and even afterwards, a number of them had major difficulties.

Terrell Davis (1997): 369 carries, 481 including the postseason. The latter total is an NFL record. Davis was spectacular again in 1998, but that season’s total of 392 regular-season carries basically ended his career.

Eddie George (1999): 320 carries, 428 including the postseason. He fell from 4.1 to 3.7 yards per carry in 2000, and after 403 regular-season carries he was never again an effective player.

Curtis Martin (1998): 369 carries, 418 including the postseason. Martin saw no ill effects; 1998 was actually his worst year until 2005.

Thurman Thomas (1993): 355 carries, 418 including the postseason. Thomas continued to play well but never again was able to carry the ball 300 times in a season.

Joe Morris (1986): 341 carries, 414 including the postseason. The following year Morris plummeted from 4.4 to 3.4 yards per carry. By 1989, his career was over due to nerve damage and broken bones in his feet, except for a short-lived comeback with the 1991 Browns.

Jamal Lewis (2000): 309 carries, 412 including the postseason. 103 postseason carries is the third-highest total in history, and Lewis tore his ACL the next year.

Corey Dillon (2005): 345 carries, 410 including the postseason. Fell from 4.7 to 3.5 yards per carry and only managed 12 games due to injuries.

Emmitt Smith (1991): 365 carries, 406 including the postseason. No ill effects.

Ahman Green (2003): 355 carries, 403 including the postseason. Dropped from 5.3 yards per carry in 2003 to 4.5 yards per carry in 2004 and then 3.3 yards per carry in 2005, when he missed 11 games because
of injuries.

Earl Campbell (1979): 368 carries, 401 including the postseason. Improved in 1980, when another heavy workload cost him most of his effectiveness in 1981 and beyond.

Natrone Means (1994): 343 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played 10 games the following year due to injuries, never again played a full season, and retired in 2000 at the age of 28.

Dorsey Levens (1997): 329 carries, 400 including the postseason. Only played seven games in 1998, never again had 100 carries in a season after 1999, didn’t average four yards per carry again until 2002.

Curt Warner (1983): 335 carries, 395 including the postseason. Blew out his knee during the first game of 1984 and was out for the season.

Emmitt Smith (1994): 368 carries, 395 including the postseason. Had his best season in 1995, then declined after that.

To summarize, eight of these 14 players were injured or lost effectiveness the following season. A ninth, Thomas, was still effective and healthy, but lost stamina. Three players, Davis, Campbell, and Smith (1994) had problems two seasons later, after another year of overuse. Only two of these players, Martin and Smith (1991) seemed to have no ill effects for multiple seasons afterwards.

On average, running backs with 300 to 369 carries who do not play in the postseason will see total yards drop by 15 percent the following year, and yards per carry by just two percent. But the 14 players listed above averaged a 27 percent drop in total yards, and a 10 percent drop in yards per carry.

All players with 390 or more carries, no matter how these carries were split between the regular season and the postseason, averaged a 33 percent drop in total yards, and an 11 percent drop in yards per carry.

Alexander’s total of 430 carries between the regular season and the postseason ranks sixth in NFL history, and no other running back last year reached 390 carries combined. Only three other running backs were above 350 carries combined: Clinton Portis (385), Edgerrin James (373), and Tiki Barber (370).

So chalk up another reason to believe that Alexander will decline this year, to go with the Madden Curse, the departure of Steve Hutchinson, and plain old regression to the mean. The Seahawks can live with a little decline — because Alexander played at such a high level last year, a little decline would still leave one of the top running backs in football. What the Seahawks have to worry about is that other problem with overuse: increased chance of injury. If Alexander is hurting and Maurice Morris is starting come midseason, that new contract with $15.1 million in guaranteed bonus and salary for 2006 won’t look like such a good decision.


hxxp://www.footballoutsiders.com/print/4764/

[Ksyrup]

One thing you'll note from that article is that Faulk actually benefited from having so many receptions, as the research tends to show that receptions don't have a measurable impact on increased workload like postseason carries do - not to mention he never came close to 370 carries even once (he only went over 300 carries twice). I guess LJ is lucky he only ran the ball 13 times and his team got bounced in 1 game, but I wouldn't throw $20M in guarantees at a RB who just set the NFL record for carries.

[Arles]

That's all fine and dandy but LT had 372 carries and came back with 313 for 1600+ yards and 14 TDs. Most of the guys you posted had well over 1500-2000 carries after the year you cite - LT and LJ both had under 1000 after their 370 carry season.

Heck, even Ricky Williams followed a 383 carry season with 1300+ yards and 9 TDs the next year. Why? Because he had just 800 career carries before that 383 season. Martin had 369 carries in 1998 and came back 1464 yards the next season. Why? Because he had just 950 carries before that.

If you reduce the sample to players that had under 1000 carries after their 370+ seasons, you would see there's no real conclusion that can be made. Now, I think you could have made a better case for Edge given the wear and tear he had at Indy, but LJ has given no signs that he will slow down and there are plenty of examples of guys that had 350-400 carries early in their career and went on to have very productive seasons after that.

[albionmoonlight]

Does style matter? It's totally antecdotal, but I always picture guys like Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, etc. as not absorbing a lot of punishment.

Then I picture guys like Jamal Anderson (how the heck was he not on the list above, btw?), Jamal Lewis, Eddie George, etc. as taking a great deal of punishment, based simply on their style.

LJ seems, to me, to be much more the latter than the former. Though, like I said, the whole this is antecdotal and perception based. I have nothing to back up the fact that Jamal Anderson took more punishment per carry than Emmitt Smith.

[albionmoonlight]

dola.

Charles Grant just signed a contract extension with the Saints. 7 years with $20 million guaranteed and $24 million over the first 3 years.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

That's all fine and dandy but LT had 372 carries and came back with 313 for 1600+ yards and 14 TDs. Most of the guys you posted had well over 1500-2000 carries after the year you cite - LT and LJ both had under 1000 after their 370 carry season.

Heck, even Ricky Williams followed a 383 carry season with 1300+ yards and 9 TDs the next year. Why? Because he had just 800 career carries before that 383 season. Martin had 369 carries in 1998 and came back 1464 yards the next season. Why? Because he had just 950 carries before that.

If you reduce the sample to players that had under 1000 carries after their 370+ seasons, you would see there's no real conclusion that can be made. Now, I think you could have made a better case for Edge given the wear and tear he had at Indy, but LJ has given no signs that he will slow down and there are plenty of examples of guys that had 350-400 carries early in their career and went on to have very productive seasons after that.

I think the stats show that guys like Emmitt Smith and Curtis Martin are exceptions. And the 370 mark is just a number, not a bright line, so LT barely hitting it one year doesn't mean as much as a guy who just broke the NFL record for carries in a season.

The guy who I don't see on that list (and that's not my list, obviously, it's from football outsiders) who LJ reminds me most of is Jamal Anderson:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1994 atl | 4 | 2 -1 -0.5 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 |
| 1995 atl | 16 | 39 161 4.1 1 | 4 42 10.5 0 |
| 1996 atl | 16 | 232 1055 4.5 5 | 49 473 9.7 1 |
| 1997 atl | 16 | 290 1002 3.5 7 | 29 284 9.8 3 |
| 1998 atl | 16 | 410 1846 4.5 14 | 27 319 11.8 2 |
| 1999 atl | 2 | 19 59 3.1 0 | 2 34 17.0 0 |
| 2000 atl | 16 | 282 1024 3.6 6 | 42 382 9.1 0 |
| 2001 atl | 3 | 55 190 3.5 1 | 3 111 37.0 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 89 | 1329 5336 4.0 34 | 156 1645 10.5 7 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+



+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2003 kan | 6 | 20 85 4.2 1 | 1 2 2.0 0 |
| 2004 kan | 10 | 120 581 4.8 9 | 22 278 12.6 2 |
| 2005 kan | 16 | 336 1750 5.2 20 | 33 343 10.4 1 |
| 2006 kan | 16 | 416 1789 4.3 17 | 41 410 10.0 2 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+


Or how about Barry Foster?

+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1990 pit | 16 | 36 203 5.6 1 | 1 2 2.0 0 |
| 1991 pit | 10 | 96 488 5.1 1 | 9 117 13.0 1 |
| 1992 pit | 16 | 390 1690 4.3 11 | 36 344 9.6 0 |
| 1993 pit | 9 | 177 711 4.0 8 | 27 217 8.0 1 |
| 1994 pit | 11 | 216 851 3.9 5 | 20 124 6.2 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+


I don't see anything that suggests that LJ has any better than a 50/50 shot at being as good as he was last year. The fact that a guy had fewer carries before his big year can be just as problematic. It stands to reason that the more punishment a guy takes before his big carry season(s), the worse off he's going to be. But there's also a fair amount of evidence that it doesn't really matter, either.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that I am in the "LJ will hit the wall sooner rather than later" camp.

Sounds like a nice friendly wager. Will LJ surpass 1,000 yards rushing next season?

[Ksyrup]

I don't know if yards is going to be the best way to judge this. I mean, he could probably handle another 350 carry season, and even if his YPC drops off significantly, he'd still have a 1,000 yard season. My guess is either an injury limits him, or his YPC drops. And actually, looking at his stats, his YPC did dip some already, just between 2005 and 2006 (5.2 to 4.3).

It wouldn't shock me to see him turn into an Eddie George-type - pile up decent yardage, but at a sub-4.0 clip, or get injured. However, in making the comments I've made since yesterday, I'm responding more to Arles' suggestion that LJ has 3-4 more years of being a "beast" and is worth a contract extension. This is kinda like looking at Pedro Martinez's contract - he might be great for 2 years, but midway through his deal, he may be worthless or nowhere near what the team contracted for. So with LJ, he may very well buck the trend and put up yet another big season. The chances of him doing that are not great to begin with, but even if he does, the chances of him continuing to do that are virtually nil, IMO.

All I'm saying is that there are significant warning signs for this year alone that would concern me, let alone for the next several years. He's not a Marshall Faulk or LT-type who has a lot of total touches, but escapes big hits and has a large percentage of touches as catches. LT has consistently stayed in the low-to-mid 300 range, and supplements his carries with a lot of receptions. Not to mention, he could be another Emmitt-type - there are exceptions to the rule, I just don't see LJ being one of them.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The guy who I don't see on that list (and that's not my list, obviously, it's from football outsiders) who LJ reminds me most of is Jamal Anderson:

Jamal Anderson was a one-year wonder. He was a 7th round pick who only had one starting season in his career with over 1055 yards (3 at or under). His second best season was 232 - 1055 and 5 TDs. Barry Foster is even worse. He was a 5th round pick and his second best season was 216-851-5.

Now, let's look at LJ's 2nd best season - 416-1789-17 TDs. His "worst" starting season is more productive than Anderson or Foster's best starting season. Add in the fact that LJ was a 1st round pick and the others were 2nd day picks and it's not hard to see there is very little to compare between the three.

I think the stats show that guys like Emmitt Smith and Curtis Martin are exceptions. And the 370 mark is just a number, not a bright line, so LT barely hitting it one year doesn't mean as much as a guy who just broke the NFL record for carries in a season.

OK, let's use the more loose interpretation that the study person did (370+ touches including postseason with 340+ carries in season). Plus, it's not just Emmitt and Curtis. We talked about LT:

2. Jerome Bettis went on to have 6500 more yards after his 375 carry season in 1997
3. Rudi Johnson had over 370 touches in 2004 and has had over 1300 yards and 12 TDs in the two years that followed. He would probably be the closest to LJ in terms of career carry path (sat behind someone for two seasons then started with a high workload).
4. Edge had 431 touches his rookie season and ended up going over 1500 yards rushing in 3 of the next 6 years (with another over 1200).
5. Corey Dillon had over 370 touches in 2001 and he ended up with over 1300 yards in three of the next four seasons (the lone exception was his "suspension" season with Cincy).
6. Eddie George had 385 touches back in 1998. He would go on to get 1165+ in 3 of the next 4 seasons. In fact, it took four more 370+ touch seasons before he started to slow down. And, at that point, he was 30 with over 2000 carries.

This 370 carry number is just something pulled out of the sky to fit the conclusions the writer wanted. If he went to just 369 in regular season, he would have had 3 more instances of guys that went on to do well in the next 3-4 seasons. If you look at all this data, the guys that failed fell into one or two categories:

1. One hit wonders (Barry Foster, Jamal Anderson, Joe Morris, Natrone Means, Curt Warner) - these guys had one season significantly higher than any other in their career. They were also late round picks.
2. Guys already with a lot of milleage and having 1500+ carries in their "370" season.

LJ falls into neither category and is much closer to guys who have had success like Bettis, Emmitt, Martin, Rudi, Edge, Dillon ... He had his high carry mark with under 1000 carries in his career and was a highly drafted back. If you through out subjective things like "running style", there is really nothing that can tie LJ to the "failed" group if you look at all the data.

[Ksyrup]

The point about touches is that the receptions don't factor in. Which is why guys like LT and Faulk are apt to still be productive, despite total touches exceeding 400 when their carries rarely exceed 350 (or 370, if you want to take the number FO uses). I also don't think it's fair to look at total yards in a particular season to determine whether someone was a "one-hit wonder." Foster was just as productive in the year before his big year; Anderson was up and down, but was productive in the 2 years before his big year. I don't think where they were drafted has any bearing on this at all, and ignoring running style doesn't make much sense, either (although admittedly, it is a more subjective determination).

I think trying to make specific comparisons is counter-productive. This isn't a "rule" to begin with, so trying to find exceptions to a non-existent rule, or differentiating between guys who might or might not fit within the rule, is pretty easy. My overall point remains that, regardless of whether LJ continues to be great, he is a significant risk right now, and KC should view him accordingly. There is plenty of information out there to suggest that he may significantly decline or get injured, if not this year, than within a year or two. Doesn't mean he won't put up 4 more 1700 yard seasons, but the odds of that are pretty slim.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Noticed today that the trade talk on LJ has cooled for now. Knowing the Chiefs' management, that likely means that they were using yesterday to feel out what they could get for LJ if they decide to trade on draft day. Whether they do the right thing or not remains to be seen. If they do trade him, they better get fair value. If he doesn't get traded, that doesn't mean that he wasn't being offered around. That just means they didn't get as much as they thought they would for him.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

I've been following this whole dog fighting ring at Michael Vick's semi-occupied palatial estate story on profootballtalk.com. It seems like there's quite a bit of evidence that Vick's place was used as part of a dog fighting ring. 70 pit bulls, some with injuries and scars, many that are malnourished...

If it does turn out that Vick's been using his home for that, or even if he just knew/allowed his house to be used for that... fuck him. He's dead to me.

There are few things that get my blood boiling hotter than the whole dog fighting thing. I just find it repulsive.

There is still a good chance that Vick knew nothing about/had nothing to do with this.

But, if it turns out that he did, then that is a HUGE PR nightmare for the Falcons. I think that people are probably more willing to forgive and forget Pacman putting a guy in a wheelchair than they would Vick running a dog fighting ring.

Arthur Blank seems very concerned about the green stuff. He will not like having PETA and the ASPCA telling people to boycot Falcons games and Falcons' gear (if it comes to that).

[Honolulu_Blue]

At the moment I would be happy with the following two scenarios tomorrow:

1) The Lions draft Calvin Johnson and keep him. FOUR WIDEOUTS IN THE TOP TEN OF THE DRAFT IN FIVE YEARS BABY!

2) The Lions trade down with Atlanta, get a bunch of picks, and draft Patrick Willis. Linebacker will have become the new wideout...

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The point about touches is that the receptions don't factor in. Which is why guys like LT and Faulk are apt to still be productive, despite total touches exceeding 400 when their carries rarely exceed 350 (or 370, if you want to take the number FO uses). I also don't think it's fair to look at total yards in a particular season to determine whether someone was a "one-hit wonder." Foster was just as productive in the year before his big year; Anderson was up and down, but was productive in the 2 years before his big year. I don't think where they were drafted has any bearing on this at all, and ignoring running style doesn't make much sense, either (although admittedly, it is a more subjective determination).

But you are talking about productive guys with under 1000 yards now with Foster and Anderson. There are a ton of guys like that every season (Mike Bell, Leon Washington, Maroney, Norwood, Barber and Michael Turner are examples of this from just 06). if you gave any of these guys 370 carries next season, there's a chance they could be nonproductive a couple seasons later. But there's that same chance if they get 200 carries next season.

I think trying to make specific comparisons is counter-productive. This isn't a "rule" to begin with, so trying to find exceptions to a non-existent rule, or differentiating between guys who might or might not fit within the rule, is pretty easy. My overall point remains that, regardless of whether LJ continues to be great, he is a significant risk right now, and KC should view him accordingly. There is plenty of information out there to suggest that he may significantly decline or get injured, if not this year, than within a year or two. Doesn't mean he won't put up 4 more 1700 yard seasons, but the odds of that are pretty slim.

In order to make a comparison, though, you need to find players with similar careers as a starter. In his first two seasons, LJ has averaged 1770 yards on 376 carries (4.7 ypc) and 18 TDs. From a total yard standpoint, he's at over 2000 yards per season. That is a level guys like Anderson, Foster and many other he's being compared to in this study didn't even come close to achieving.

If you look at the past 7-8 years, the only reasonably close comparisons to LJ in terms of age, production and workload are Faulk, LT, Alexander and Edge. And each of these guys went on to have very productive seasons 3-4 years after their first two seasons of high use. Expecting LJ to follow the career path of Jamal Anderson or Foster and not LT or Edge seems illogical given his talent/age/workload to this point.

Now, is there some risk? Sure, but there was risk with Edge after his first few seasons. There was risk with LT after his 700+ carries in years 1-2. There was risk with Faulk after his high workload to start his career. And there was risk with Alexander after his first two seasons as a fulltime starter. Yet each of these guys went on to have 3-4 extremely productive seasons after their first two years as a starter with high workload. They are all extremely talented backs who had under 1000 carries after this workload and that's exactly the situation LJ is in.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Noticed today that the trade talk on LJ has cooled for now. Knowing the Chiefs' management, that likely means that they were using yesterday to feel out what they could get for LJ if they decide to trade on draft day. Whether they do the right thing or not remains to be seen. If they do trade him, they better get fair value. If he doesn't get traded, that doesn't mean that he wasn't being offered around. That just means they didn't get as much as they thought they would for him.

There's a rumor out and about that the Packers have offered a first and a fourth for LJ.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

At the moment I would be happy with the following two scenarios tomorrow:

1) The Lions draft Calvin Johnson and keep him. FOUR WIDEOUTS IN THE TOP TEN OF THE DRAFT IN FIVE YEARS BABY!

It's no fun if you defuse the joke before we get to make it.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Celeval

There's a rumor out and about that the Packers have offered a first and a fourth for LJ.

Yeah, they haven't acted on that. The Chiefs publicly are saying they won't trade LJ, but that doesn't mean a whole lot when Carl Peterson is the one saying it.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

In order to make a comparison, though, you need to find players with similar careers as a starter. In his first two seasons, LJ has averaged 1770 yards on 376 carries (4.7 ypc) and 18 TDs. From a total yard standpoint, he's at over 2000 yards per season. That is a level guys like Anderson, Foster and many other he's being compared to in this study didn't even come close to achieving.

If you look at the past 7-8 years, the only reasonably close comparisons to LJ in terms of age, production and workload are Faulk, LT, Alexander and Edge. And each of these guys went on to have very productive seasons 3-4 years after their first two seasons of high use. Expecting LJ to follow the career path of Jamal Anderson or Foster and not LT or Edge seems illogical given his talent/age/workload to this point.

Now, is there some risk? Sure, but there was risk with Edge after his first few seasons. There was risk with LT after his 700+ carries in years 1-2. There was risk with Faulk after his high workload to start his career. And there was risk with Alexander after his first two seasons as a fulltime starter. Yet each of these guys went on to have 3-4 extremely productive seasons after their first two years as a starter with high workload. They are all extremely talented backs who had under 1000 carries after this workload and that's exactly the situation LJ is in.

Now you're actually making my argument for me, even limiting this to these 4 guys. First, I've already discussed LT and Faulk. Receptions do not factor in, as per the FO article, they have not been shown to increase the risk for injury or declining production the way additional carries do. Faulk cannot reasonably be considered a decent comparison since he only went over 300 carries twice in his entire carrier, and in neither regular season was he close to 350, let alone 370. a greater percentage of his touches came from receptions, so he's a bad comparision. LT appears to be an Emmitt-type, and I will grant you that players like this exist. Maybe LJ will be like him. I don't think they're the same kind of RB, though, so I disagree.

Now let's look at Edge and Alexander. First, Edge to me is again a similar style runner to LT and Faulk than LJ is - not a lot of direct hits, consistently catches more balls a season than LJ. Edge has been over 350 carries 3 times in his career, twice in the first two seasons. Notwithstanding his style, guess what happened in season 3? Knee injury. He didn't get his YPC back up over 4 until 2003. Yes, he came back relatively strong, but he's an LT-type, not an LJ-type. And he still was out or ineffective for the better part of 2 seasons.

Shaun Alexander...probably the only 1 of the 4 who is a similar back to LJ. Once he became a starter, he wasn't used nearly as much as LJ has been early in his career. I'm sorry, but there's a big difference between 325-350 carries and 415. That's roughly 2 games worth of extra carries. His first two full seasons he totalled 604 carries to LJ's 752. If you want to throw out Foster and Anderson's partial years, we'll throw out Alexander's and LJs, too. 750 to 600 carries in their first two full seasons. And then what happened when Alexander increased his workload from an average of 310 carries his first 3 full seasons to 362 the next two seasons(likely far more than 400 including the playoffs in 2005)? Injury. He sucked last year. Maybe he comes back strong, maybe he doesn't. We know one thing - LJ still has almost 50 more carries last year than Alexander ever had during a regular season.

Alexander and Edge both got injured after significant workloads. Faulk was not that type of back and should not be included in the comparison. LT appears to be one of the exceptions to the rule, which LJ could be as well. But I'm going to say more than likely not.

[BishopMVP]

LJ also had a big workload at Penn St, which might factor in.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Alexander and Edge both got injured after significant workloads. Faulk was not that type of back and should not be included in the comparison. LT appears to be one of the exceptions to the rule, which LJ could be as well. But I'm going to say more than likely not.

To me, you can go two ways with this and say LJ is more like LT or he's more like Edge and Alexander. I tend to think he's more like LT in that neither Edge (1600, 13 TDs, 4.4 ypc) or Alexander (1200, 15 TDs, 4.2 ypc) were what LJ (1770, 18 TDs, 4.7 ypc) was in his first two seasons. But even if LJ is like Edge or Alexander, he may have one subpar year in the next two but still go on to have 3-4 MVP-calibur seasons after that.

The point here is that when you are a talent like LT, LJ, Edge, Shawn Alexander, Emmitt, Bettis and others in that class, you can have a high workload early in your career and still bounce back to have a hall of fame career if injuries hit. LJ in the next 4 seasons will be a top 3 back and getting that for what amounts to the 14th-16th pick in the draft is a steal. Does anyone think Marshawn Lynch will be a top 3 back in the next four seasons? To me, if you can get LJ for a 1st and 3rd/4th and have the cap room to sign him (which GB and Buffalo do), it's the biggest no-brainer in the history of draft deals.

Is there risk? Sure, but the probable output you will get from LJ is well worth the chance he gets hurt due to a high workload in his first two starting seasons. And I would put chance that LJ continues at a 1400 yard, 4.5 ypc, 15 TD level at much higher than Marshawn Lynch or even Adrian Peterson reaching that level over the next 2-3 seasons. Heck, you can throw in the other available back (Ahman, Lewis, McGahee, Thomas Jones) in that pot as well. LJ is a class above everyone in this group outside of AP and he already has serious injury concerns (much more than LJ).

[Ksyrup]

So I guess it boils down to the fact that in your comparison, you side with the Edge/LT comparison based on his numbers, and I side with the comparison to running style and don't really put that much weight into the degree of success, just whether they had some success.

What about the comparison to someone like Terrell Davis? He put up numbers exceeding LJs (through 3 seasons) culminating in a 390 carry (plus playoffs) season and was never healthy again. Again, I think running style and how the team uses a guy plays a big factor. It'll be interesting not only to see how LJ does this year, but how Alexander does. He's where LJ might be in a couple of years.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So I guess it boils down to the fact that in your comparison, you side with the Edge/LT comparison based on his numbers, and I side with the comparison to running style and don't really put that much weight into the degree of success, just whether they had some success.

But talent/success is a huge factor. If you start out with the limited natural talent of Barry Foster and get hurt, you are probably done. If you start out with Elite talent like Edge, LT, LJ, Alexander and get hurt, you can still be productive. Every back is going to get hurt, it just comes down to how you handle that injury and your state the following season. Given LJ's high talentlevel and production, he could withstand an injury better than another less talented back with a similar style. So, not only do you have the chance that he doesn't get hurt, but you also have a higher chance at him returning to top form in the unfortunate event that he does get hurt.

What about the comparison to someone like Terrell Davis? He put up numbers exceeding LJs (through 3 seasons) culminating in a 390 carry (plus playoffs) season and was never healthy again.

TD had a serious ankle injury in HS (redshirted his first at Long Beach State). He had two serious injuries in college (the last being a very serious hamstring tear his senior season). It's why he slipped so far in the draft. In the pros he tore his ACL and MCL, had a stress fracture, got both knees scoped again and had all the issues with migranes. His whole career had been littered with injuries from HS to the pros.

LJ's career is nothing like that. He was extremely durable in HS (rushed for 2,159 yards and got 7 sacks playing LB). His college career was the definition of durability - he also averaged over 8 ypc so his carries were not very high. And he has yet to miss a game in the NFL as a starter. There is no reason to believe he will get hurt given his history.

Again, I think running style and how the team uses a guy plays a big factor. It'll be interesting not only to see how LJ does this year, but how Alexander does. He's where LJ might be in a couple of years.

Guys like Rudi Johnson and Corey Dillon ran with a similar style (and clean history prior to the NFL) and they haven't had the massive injuries.

It's just different for every back. Guys like LT, Rudi and LJ have avoided injuries in their entire careers to this point so there's really no reason to think they will suddenly get hurt.

[Ksyrup]

Rudy Johnson has at least had yearly carries in the mid-300s. Surprisingly, Dillon's yearly averages look more like Faulk's than Johnson's.

Anyway, we'll see. Like I said, LJ may be OK, he may not. I'm definitely interested in whether Alexander bounces back this year.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

There is still a good chance that Vick knew nothing about/had nothing to do with this.

But, if it turns out that he did, then that is a HUGE PR nightmare for the Falcons. I think that people are probably more willing to forgive and forget Pacman putting a guy in a wheelchair than they would Vick running a dog fighting ring.

Arthur Blank seems very concerned about the green stuff. He will not like having PETA and the ASPCA telling people to boycot Falcons games and Falcons' gear (if it comes to that).

PETA is already calling for Vick to be suspended while his involvement is investigated and is calling for him to be released if he is found to have had involvement:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6...HPHCP&GT1=9331

[Arles]

To add more intrigue into the LJ dramafest, one of the fan sites I visit just stated that a local KC media person said the Chiefs have given permission to Packers to negociate with LJ. Reportedly, the Chiefs want a 1st and 4th this season and a 3rd in 08.

Again, this is all speculation and none has hit the major sites yet - just something interesting to post.

[IMetTrentGreen]

I would bet some of the Peterson injury issues are other teams trying to get him to fall. Not all, but some.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by IMetTrentGreen

I would bet some of the Peterson injury issues are other teams trying to get him to fall. Not all, but some.

If he really does need another surgery on his shoulder I'd be nervous. Surely any team thinking of drafting him could validate this ahead of time.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by moriarty

If he really does need another surgery on his shoulder I'd be nervous. Surely any team thinking of drafting him could validate this ahead of time.

You're reading this all wrong. This totally points to the Lions ending up with him somehow, and him sucking.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Arles

To add more intrigue into the LJ dramafest, one of the fan sites I visit just stated that a local KC media person said the Chiefs have given permission to Packers to negociate with LJ. Reportedly, the Chiefs want a 1st and 4th this season and a 3rd in 08.

Again, this is all speculation and none has hit the major sites yet - just something interesting to post.

That sounds pretty consistant with what was being circulated yesterday. Buffalo had supposedly offered a 1st and a 3rd this year and a conditional pick in '08. The offer you mention sounds very similar.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

To add more intrigue into the LJ dramafest, one of the fan sites I visit just stated that a local KC media person said the Chiefs have given permission to Packers to negociate with LJ. Reportedly, the Chiefs want a 1st and 4th this season and a 3rd in 08.

Again, this is all speculation and none has hit the major sites yet - just something interesting to post.

Where he ends up this year will determine whether I hope you're right or I'm right. If he stays with KC or goes to GB, I hope he turns into a poor man's Eddie George. If he goes to Buffalo, he can run wild.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You're reading this all wrong. This totally points to the Lions ending up with him somehow, and him sucking.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm definitely interested in whether Alexander bounces back this year.

Me too. I'm using him as a keeper in a league.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

PETA is already calling for Vick to be suspended while his involvement is investigated and is calling for him to be released if he is found to have had involvement:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6...HPHCP&GT1=9331

[stevew]

Who didn't let the Dogs out?

Who
Who

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by stevew

Who didn't let the Dogs out?

Who
Who

Oh no you didn't.

[sachmo71]

Oh, screw PETA. Jeebsus.

[Eaglesfan27]

Sure. They should give Vick a pass if he had a part in running an illegal cruel dog fighting ring (not to mention the drug distribution charge that the original warrant was for.)

[Fonzie]

profootballtalk.com is reporting that there is a deal in place for Randy Moss, but they don't yet know the destination.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Fonzie

profootballtalk.com is reporting that there is a deal in place for Randy Moss, but they don't yet know the destination.

I'll be suprised if it isn't Green Bay.

[Fonzie]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'll be suprised if it isn't Green Bay.

I think Brett Favre would be surprised, too. He's been pushing this deal hard, according to profootballtalk.com.

[Arles]

here's a crazy twists on one of the blogs I read (guy is staying in the press hotel for the draft):

Clayton just got off the phone with Ted Thompson, GM for Green Bay. The Packers are really thinking about giving up their 1st Round pick NEXT YEAR for Michael Turner.

This is getting crazy. GB's been rumored to be going after every RB short of Eric Dickerson this week

[Warhammer]

ABC announces today that Eric Dickerson will be returning to the sidelines this season... As a member of the Green Bay Packers...

[RedKingGold]

I heard a rumor that Larry Johnson and Michael Turner are gay lovers and they only want to be traded to the same team for a team's entire draft. Apparently, Mike Ditka is listening.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

PETA is already calling for Vick to be suspended while his involvement is investigated and is calling for him to be released if he is found to have had involvement:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6...HPHCP&GT1=9331

Because PETA fans are noted for being big football fans, what with the football being made of leather and all.

PETA sucks, and each of its members should be forced to eat McDonald's Double Quarter-pounders.

[Fonzie]

Originally Posted by Arles

here's a crazy twists on one of the blogs I read (guy is staying in the press hotel for the draft):


This is getting crazy. GB's been rumored to be going after every RB short of Eric Dickerson this week

It is indeed crazy, especially considering how tight-lipped Ted Thompson tends to be. He's blabbing like crazy right now, which makes me think this trade-for-a-running back business is a smoke screen for his real draft plans. My guess is that he's also not serious about taking a running back in the 1st round (and he shouldn't be, given the general interchangeablility of backs in a zone-blocking scheme). Perhaps he wants someone else to grab Marshawn Lynch (or trade up to grab him) so that another player that he really wants drops.

Mix into this the fact that the Packers' medical staff cleared Lynch of back problems without even performing an MRI. Why would TT publicly state that the player most pundits have him picking is perfectly healthy based on limited medical information if he really, really wants that player? TT should be expressing some skepticism about Lynch's back if he wants to be sure of securing Lynch's services.

But then, who does TT want over Lynch? I don't have a clue. Perhaps his plan is simply to convince everyone that he's desperate to grab a RB, and that Lynch is great, just to drum up interest in pick #16. That way someone from the lower half of round one might trade spots with him and he can get more picks in the process.

[Atocep]

You just made me put my tinfoil hat on.