WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of post 210:

mauboy1 4 - PackerFanatic (169), bhlloy (181), MartinD (185), mckerney (187)
Chief Rum 4 - Lathum (170), mauboy1 (171), Zinto (205), ntndeacon (206)
ntndeacon 3 - Danny (193), The Jackal (194), hoopsguy (200)
JAG 1 - Autumn (164)
Autumn - JAG (178)

First 4 voters on Mau. Notice bhlloy being the second vote. I think there is no way the wolves vote #2 and #3 on mau and would lean strongly towards believing bh and the GoldenEagle scan. I also would add some trust to packerFanatic and Mckerney

[Danny]

bhllloy is not Mau's teammate, I am. His votes adds trust for the reasons I just stated

[Autumn]

Autumn votes JAG
PF votes mauboy
lathum votes chief
mauboy votes chief (2)
danny votes jag (2)
jag votes autumn
bhlloy votes mauboy (2)
martin d votes mauboy (3)
chief rum votes mauboy (4)
mckerney votes mauboy (5)
chief unvotes mauboy (4)
danny unvotes jag
danny votes ntndeacon
jackal votes ntndeacon (2)
hoopsguy votes ntndeacon (3)
zinto votes chief rum (3)
ntndeacon votes chief (4)
pass votes ntn (4)
chief votes ntn (5)
CrimsonFox votes mauboy (5)
ntn unvotes chief (3)
ntn votes mauboy (6)
darth votes mauboy (7)
cougar votes mauboy (8)
mauboy unvotes chief (2)
mauboy votes ntn (6)
golden eagle votes ntn (7)
saldana votes ntn (8)
lathum unvotes chief (1)
lathum votes ntn (8)
chief unvotes ntn (7)
chief votes mauboy (9)
autumn unvotes jag (0)
autumn votes mauboy (10)
ntn unvotes mau (9)
ntn votes jag (1)
danny unvote ntn (6)
danny votes CF
mau unvotes ntn (5)
mau votes crimson
chief unvotes mau
chief votes jag
autumn unvotes mauboy1
autumn votes JAG

Sorry, again I know this may not be complete, but I wanted to throw in the info we had here and look at these streaks. I think the late voting is less useful after Saldana's reveal.

I've put Lathum and Saldana in a light green to show they're presumed villagers.

[Danny]

I think Mau's second vote also adds some trust to CR. Right now there was one wolf on CR, one on Mau. Looking at the 4 other voters on the other three candidates seems a good place to potentially find at least one wolf. Unfortunately that includes me. Also includes Autumn, JAG, and Hoopsguy.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

bhllloy is not Mau's teammate, I am. His votes adds trust for the reasons I just stated

Oh right. My pre-coffee bad. I'll go get some.

[Danny]

And thats not the final tally. Looking at the final tally will probably be a better place to look. It should be noted that Ntn and Mau tried not to vote eachother on day 1.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think Mau's second vote also adds some trust to CR. Right now there was one wolf on CR, one on Mau. Looking at the 4 other voters on the other three candidates seems a good place to potentially find at least one wolf. Unfortunately that includes me. Also includes Autumn, JAG, and Hoopsguy.

What makes you think all the wolves would have voted that early?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Autumn

chief votes ntn (5)
CrimsonFox votes mauboy (5)
ntn unvotes chief (3)
ntn votes mauboy (6)
darth votes mauboy (7)
cougar votes mauboy (8)
mauboy unvotes chief (2)
mauboy votes ntn (6)
golden eagle votes ntn (7)
saldana votes ntn (8)
lathum unvotes chief (1)
lathum votes ntn (9)
chief unvotes ntn (8)
chief votes mauboy (9)
autumn unvotes jag (0)
autumn votes mauboy (10)

So here's an interesting stretch. My vote at the end is about when Mauboy revealed, just before that. The beginning of this stretch is the point at which it was 4-4-4 Chief-Mauboy-NTN.

I haven't actually looked at it yet, but think it should be interesting to see what people did there.

[Autumn]

At 4-4-4, Chief chooses NTN over Mauboy. CF chooses Mauboy over Chief. NTN jumps on the Mauboy wagon, Darth and Cougar follow, choosing to put Mauboy further ahead rather than vote NTN. At that point it's Mauboy 8 - NTN 5 - Chief 3

Mauboy switches to NTN and starts a run there. GE, Saldana and Lathum makes it NTN - 9 -Mauboy 8.

Chief makes a decisive move there moving from NTN to Mauboy. This is the move that makes me question him, Danny, despite an earlier vote on Mauboy. I'm not sure if Mauboy revealed before or after that vote, I know he revealed before mine.

[Autumn]

God, this coffee has not helped yet. Obviously Chief switched TO Mauboy, so that is not the questionable vote. I'll just let other people look at it. :-(

[Autumn]

Cougar has a very good looking vote in that stretch, putting Mauboy up by 3 instead of closing the gap by voting NTN.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

What makes you think all the wolves would have voted that early?

I said looking at a final result would better, but didn't see one already tabulated and didn't have time to do one myself. This is my last post before leaving, hopefully others who are around can go through day 1 in more detail to come up with a couple good candidates.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Autumn

mckerney votes mauboy (5)
chief unvotes mauboy (4)
danny unvotes jag
danny votes ntndeacon
jackal votes ntndeacon (2)
hoopsguy votes ntndeacon (3)
zinto votes chief rum (3)
ntndeacon votes chief (4)
pass votes ntn (4)

Here's another stretch to look at. McKerney puts Mauboy at 5 making him the only real contender at that moment. Let's see who gets put in as candidates after that and by whom.

As I said, Chief unvotes, which makes me wonder. Danny switches to NTN (what was the reasoning there, Danny?). Jackal, Hoops and then Pass all jump onto a brand new NTN wagon. Zinto adds Chief into the mix, and NTN jumps on that rather than on Mauboy.

[GoldenEagle]

I think its safe to conclude that there is a wolf somewhere in that voting pattern. I think the three logical candidates for today are hoops, pass, and ntn.

Of those three, who would give us the most info? If ntn turns out to be a wolf, it clears pass. Otherwise, pass looks mighty suspicious since he was attempting to swing the vote off of mau.

I am leaning toward voting for ntn today.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Danny

First 4 voters on Mau. Notice bhlloy being the second vote. I think there is no way the wolves vote #2 and #3 on mau and would lean strongly towards believing bh and the GoldenEagle scan. I also would add some trust to packerFanatic and Mckerney

I'm not sure I can fully get behind this. To some degree, I wonder if this whole thing with Mau was a designed play by the wolves to try and draw out the seer. Seen in that light, the wolves would have a doubly vested interest in voting Mau early: 1. Make sure he is a candidate so he can make the play he did. 2. Look good when it eventually comes out that Mau is a wolf.

I will say that I can't see bhlloy as cunning making that play though, so that makes me feel a lot better about him and good about GE barring him being the cunning (low odds, but just not fully discounting things at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Autumn

God, this coffee has not helped yet.

Personally, I think you all should vote autumn for this heretical comment alone.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Personally, I think you all should vote autumn for this heretical comment alone.

Haha. I could just see CW writing a script that informs him anytime the word coffee is posted in a thread.

[Autumn]

I'm assuming he did ;-)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm not sure I can fully get behind this. To some degree, I wonder if this whole thing with Mau was a designed play by the wolves to try and draw out the seer. Seen in that light, the wolves would have a doubly vested interest in voting Mau early: 1. Make sure he is a candidate so he can make the play he did. 2. Look good when it eventually comes out that Mau is a wolf.

I will say that I can't see bhlloy as cunning making that play though, so that makes me feel a lot better about him and good about GE barring him being the cunning (low odds, but just not fully discounting things at this point.

I agree with this, and thought about pointing it out to you in your earlier post, but since you seemed to discredit that theory, I didn't bother. But personally, my thinking is that if bhlloy is the cunning, they wouldn't have killed the seer.

[Autumn]

FWIW, CW, the coffee has now activated my brain.

[PackerFanatic]

Looking at the voting from day 1, I think ntn is our best bet today.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[EagleFan]

As of post 1021:

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021)


I guess I may need to start tracking that again today, I was liking the easy vote counting of the first three days...

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Haha. I could just see CW writing a script that informs him anytime the word coffee is posted in a thread.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm assuming he did ;-)

Seriously... his coffee senses were tingling...

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of post 1021:

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021)


I guess I may need to start tracking that again today, I was liking the easy vote counting of the first three days...

All you need to do is tell us who another wolf is and we will make it really easy for you!

[PackerFanatic]

Man, Pair of Amazing Nuts have really fallen behind...time to pick up the pace and take over this game!

[Zinto]

The thing I am noticing as I go back and read day one is that Mau really did not want to vote Chief the first day. He also later pretended to scan Chief. While I am not all the way done reading I am just pointing out this is something to look at.

Also after seeing how well Chief did in the last game he could have been trying to cast doubt on him so that if/when Mau got found to be a wolf he could maybe bring Chief down with him.

[Autumn]

Yeah, Zinto, I'm not sure what to think on that whole thing. It seemed that Mauboy expected his fake to work better than it did, so I don't know if he "scanned" Chief hoping to hide a wolf, or hoping to trick us once he was lynched.

[Zinto]

The only other thing that really really caught my attention was that even though Mau claimed a role I am not sure why NTN removed his vote off of Mau to Jag. Jag did not have any other votes on him at that point and it does not make a lot of sense to get out of the self preservation mode.

[hoopsguy]

Work has involved lots of customer face time today, which is keeping me away from doing the vote diving I wanted to get to earlier. May still have time later in the day, but it likely won't be before 6PM EST.

Which sucks, because I'm pretty sure there is good info to be found in there. I'm inclined to agree with the point Autumn made about voters 1/2/4 on Mauboy being good ... no reason to push him into the "runoff" that early in the process, and I'm puzzled by MartinD doing so with his vote.

[Autumn]

I have to assume they just felt like it would pay off down the road to lay down some early wolf on wolf votes. And it does pay off in the sense that it makes it harder to analyze any of these votes, knowing they may have been voting each ohter on purpose early.

I believe we've had two vanilla wolves, right? So chances are we're left with the cunning and the brutal, if we have only four. I know Saldana came down hard on there being only four wolves, but five seems in the realm of possibility, I'm not sure. Maybe not if there is a brutal and cunning in game.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Work has involved lots of customer face time today, which is keeping me away from doing the vote diving I wanted to get to earlier. May still have time later in the day, but it likely won't be before 6PM EST.

Which sucks, because I'm pretty sure there is good info to be found in there. I'm inclined to agree with the point Autumn made about voters 1/2/4 on Mauboy being good ... no reason to push him into the "runoff" that early in the process, and I'm puzzled by MartinD doing so with his vote.

That was me, not autumn .

Also on autumns questions, I switched to ntn because I decided I'd rather vote someone who is quieter over someone who has been very active in jag on day 1 with little to go on.

Btw, pass is playing pretty mellow this game and he tends to be a bit more out there as a wolf. He also from what I remember looked to help save mau. For right now I'm going to put my vote there

Vote pass

I can't bold from phone right now but hopefully this will count for now, I can always fix it later.

[Danny]

vote pass

Got it to work I think

[Passacaglia]

Danny, can you clarify that for me? It sounds like you're arguing that I'm probably a villager (since I'm mellow this game, and tend to be more out there as a wolf), then voting for me.

[Danny]

vote pass

Got it to work I think

[Danny]

I think you are more out there as a villager actually. Plus your vote of ntn and avoidance of mau makes the two of you a solid run off pair. My votes not stuck though

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think you are more out there as a villager actually. Plus your vote of ntn and avoidance of mau makes the two of you a solid run off pair. My votes not stuck though

Really? I think anyone who has seen me play as a wolf would say that you were right the first time. I'm not sure I like the idea of NTN and I as a pair since GE has already tried to say that I look bad if NTN is good, so this is seeming like too much of a setup based on a D1 vote. If you want to run me off with someone else though, that's fine.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Wow, four straight votes for Mauboy.

Okay, reading back through day. Let's keep in mind that the three votes on Mauboy that followed bhlloy's all happened within 3 minutes. It's very possible none of thsoe three, wolf or not, realized that any of the others were posting. Thus Mauboy went from 2 votes to 5 in the space of three minutes. Martin was one of those votes, Chief and McKerney the others. That makes those other two not quite as golden as they might have been otherwise, since it may have just been a lack of wolf communication. Chief unvoted once he realized what had happened, which may have just been a wise villager move, or a wolf backing off from what had seemed a safe wolf on wolf vote.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Really? I think anyone who has seen me play as a wolf would say that you were right the first time. I'm not sure I like the idea of NTN and I as a pair since GE has already tried to say that I look bad if NTN is good, so this is seeming like too much of a setup based on a D1 vote. If you want to run me off with someone else though, that's fine.

I agree with Danny, in that I've been looking at you wondering why Pass is playing so quiet.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, I do tend to be quiet when I can tell the vote is going to be boring. The only interesting vote was Day 1, and I was out then. Granted, that day was so weird that I don't know if I would have stuck my nose in there even if I was around, and I'm still not really able to make much out of it.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As everyone tries to prepare for the next leg you hear evil laughter...

I wonder what this was all about. It seemed random..

[Passacaglia]

So if I'm going to whine about getting votes, and about being paired off with ntn, I might as well throw out a name. This guy voted for mau twice, and unvoted him twice. That gives me a hunch that he was trying to make it look like there were runs to save ntn, and get more people to vote his way.

[Passacaglia]

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I think its safe to conclude that there is a wolf somewhere in that voting pattern. I think the three logical candidates for today are hoops, pass, and ntn.

Of those three, who would give us the most info? If ntn turns out to be a wolf, it clears pass. Otherwise, pass looks mighty suspicious since he was attempting to swing the vote off of mau.

I am leaning toward voting for ntn today.

Since I just my suspicion of GE trying to set me up, I'll quote it here. Looking at his post, I see that his voting pattern looks exactly the same as mine -- a vote for NTN without swtiching it off. This pretty much ties him with CR in my book, and if anyone votes for GE before anyone follows me on CR, I'll switch.

[Autumn]

I just read through most of day 1's history. FWIW, Pass's vote didn't strike me as necessarily suspicious. It seemed like one most villagers would make at that point possibly. It's proving hard to decipher things with all these runs of simultaneous votes though.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Since I just my suspicion of GE trying to set me up, I'll quote it here. Looking at his post, I see that his voting pattern looks exactly the same as mine -- a vote for NTN without swtiching it off. This pretty much ties him with CR in my book, and if anyone votes for GE before anyone follows me on CR, I'll switch.

Vote Golden Eagle

[Danny]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt until I am home and can look at things better
unvote pass

[Danny]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt until I am home and can look at things better
unvote pass

[Danny]

Please don't vote GE, much better candidates due to him likely being scanned good.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Vote Golden Eagle

I don't think that's a good percentage play, you're basically banking on GE being the cunning or even more unlikely possibilities.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

Please don't vote GE, much better candidates due to him likely being scanned good.

Thanks, I'd forgotten about that. Do we know if there is a cunning wolf in this game?