werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[hoopsguy]

And the thread really goes downhill if you combine the above with this little gem from your husband:

You're almost as anal...err thorough as a certain blonde I know =)

[Telle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lot of ways to go from here with the above quotes ...

Heh.. well at least we're able to liven up this rather depressing game of werewolf by talking about my body

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Telle

They're boobies really boobies not boobies that boobies impressive boobies these days boobies anyways boobies. Two boobies children boobies and boobies gravity boobies haven't boobies been boobies kind.

Sorry, what? I couldn't concentrate on what you were saying.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Crim

Umm, I again find myself agreeing with Bug, but this time on a factual matter. Clearly there wasn't a block last night, RA.

Good point there.

[Passacaglia]

Man, five pages just this evening? Crikey!

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Crim

Sorry, what? I couldn't concentrate on what you were saying.

Hmmmm... haven't gotten any lately have you?

[Crim]

Married. :shrugs:

[Passacaglia]

Geez! DT -- I think you made the right move with the late reveal, though I would have rather your power saved -- on the other hand, this is the kind of thing we need to have that power saved for, so I'm glad we didn't waste it on NC. Not sure what to think of Bug now.

[Crim]

Okee, seriously, with three of the four roles either dead or used up, this is going to be dicey. The only role left is arguably the weakest. No offense. How do we feel about number of wolves/villagers remaining? 11/4? 12/3?

Seems like we really need to get some dumpster diving (nods to Hoops) going.

Don't think I'm up for it tonight. Kinda tired. Maybe Saturday night I can give it a go. don't know what I've got cooking sunday, other than a load of yardwork and some interior furniture moving type stuff.

Meanwhile, I'm very interested to hear others' theories about possible wolves, preferably with some kind of supporting documentation...

[Crim]

Just to get it out there -- I think this will be his second vote -- I'm still on Bug.

VOTE MRBUG708

Subject to change, of course, since I'm hoping we uncover some other wolfinshness over the next two days before Monday's deadline.

[Crim]

hey, how do y'all do that thing where you find out total number of posts in a thread or whatever?

[Passacaglia]

If you look in the WW forum, the number of total posts is on the right. If you click on that number, you'll get the number of posts by each person. Is that what you mean?

Anyway, I'm going to bed.

[MrBug708]

Just curious RenderR, but do you still think I'm a wolf?

[RendeR]

I haven't the foggiest fracking clue.

[ArlingtonColt]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

I'm gone for the night... based on my earlier suspicions im going to VOTE MR.BUG

I voted for Bug (not sure why it wasn't in the tally)... and I still Vote Mr.Bug

[EagleFan]

Vote PurdueBrad

I'll be around this weekend, most likely but I wanted to get a vote in early just in case something happens. The vote is subject to change, just going with my current gut feeling (lol, I actually typed instinct initially but didn't want anyone thinking that showed some sort of hidden meaning), but that feeling has faded a bit.


On a note about the game so far. Wow, this looks pretty bad so far, are there usually this many reveals in the first three days?

[MrBug708]

I think the only guy I trust at this point is Chief and Im somewhat skeptical about that

[path12]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

On a note about the game so far. Wow, this looks pretty bad so far, are there usually this many reveals in the first three days?

No, but you wouldn't know it from the horrible luck we've had lately.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

I voted for Bug (not sure why it wasn't in the tally)... and I still Vote Mr.Bug

It would be easier to see your vote if you didn't put it in the end of a sentance, thanks!!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I think the only guy I trust at this point is Chief and Im somewhat skeptical about that

Actually I'm somewhat suspicious of Chief. Our only advantage right now is the bartender, right? And with the other good roles gone there's no advantage to him NOT blocking somebody every night.

At this point I trust:

Render - for whacking Barkeep, which even though it was a bad play was an obvious move
DaddyTorgo - Duke
Oliegirl - Claimed to have a tray, which I don't think a wolf would do even if it were true

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Actually I'm somewhat suspicious of Chief. Our only advantage right now is the bartender, right? And with the other good roles gone there's no advantage to him NOT blocking somebody every night.

At this point I trust:

Render - for whacking Barkeep, which even though it was a bad play was an obvious move
DaddyTorgo - Duke
Oliegirl - Claimed to have a tray, which I don't think a wolf would do even if it were true

How does RendeR whacking Barkeep give you trust? Can you explain that a little more?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

How does RendeR whacking Barkeep give you trust? Can you explain that a little more?

Simply that I was reading the thread the next day, not knowing what had happened, I was 100% convinced that Barkeep was a wolf. I was totally stunned to discover that he was NOT, but if I had had the knife I would have axed him too. On the other hand if I were a wolf, I think I would have used the knife on somebody else.

Its possible that the wolves would use the knife to gain some trust, but that seems like a very low-percentage play. Better to use the knife on somebody that is trusted than somebody that will get lynched the next day.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Simply that I was reading the thread the next day, not knowing what had happened, I was 100% convinced that Barkeep was a wolf. I was totally stunned to discover that he was NOT, but if I had had the knife I would have axed him too. On the other hand if I were a wolf, I think I would have used the knife on somebody else.

Its possible that the wolves would use the knife to gain some trust, but that seems like a very low-percentage play. Better to use the knife on somebody that is trusted than somebody that will get lynched the next day.

I really had the opposite read on all that. Barkeep's move seemed to me like a villager play, like he was trying to see if he could get any wolves to join him in defending NC. It doesn't seem wolfish to me to go against absolutely everyone like that (even the other wolves).

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I really had the opposite read on all that. Barkeep's move seemed to me like a villager play, like he was trying to see if he could get any wolves to join him in defending NC. It doesn't seem wolfish to me to go against absolutely everyone like that (even the other wolves).

I wasn't thinking about his play re: Neon, I was thinking about his claim that he was blocked by the bartender. I believed it as true, but thought it made it very likely that he was actually a wolf, considering there was no kill that night. I thought he was busted and panicky.

[st.cronin]

dola, either way he was certainly going to be a strong candidate for lynchy the next day, so it wouldn't have made much sense for a wolf to attack him with the knife.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Vote PurdueBrad

I'll be around this weekend, most likely but I wanted to get a vote in early just in case something happens. The vote is subject to change, just going with my current gut feeling (lol, I actually typed instinct initially but didn't want anyone thinking that showed some sort of hidden meaning), but that feeling has faded a bit.


On a note about the game so far. Wow, this looks pretty bad so far, are there usually this many reveals in the first three days?

Can you explain some more about this? The first time you voted for him, you talked about his reactions, and it was shortly after he said "WE LOST TWO?!?" when both Alan and BK died. I assumed you meant that it seemed like he was overreacting, so you were thinking he knew all along and was just trying to act surprised. But then I remembered that BK was killed by RendeR -- does that mean you're suspicious of RendeR as a wolf, as well?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I wasn't thinking about his play re: Neon, I was thinking about his claim that he was blocked by the bartender. I believed it as true, but thought it made it very likely that he was actually a wolf, considering there was no kill that night. I thought he was busted and panicky.

Interesting. I guess he said that would put more suspicion on him, but I still don't see why it would. So does that mean you were thinking that NC was not the convert, and BK tried to kill? And are you now thinking that NC was the convert?

[Passacaglia]

Post #292 - Neon unvotes Barkeep, votes Alan
Post #296 - Cronin unvotes RendeR, votes RPI
Post #297 - Purdue votes Alan
Post #298 - Path unvotes Crim, votes RPI
Post #299 - Alan unvotes Neon, votes DT
Post #301 - MrBug unvotes Barkeep, votes RPI
Post #302 - Barkeep unvotes Neon, votes DT
Post #308 - Crim votes Path
Post #313 - RendeR unvotes Cronin, votes DT

This part of Day 1 interests me. It's everything right after NC's reveal. Could the bad guys have caught on that DT was the duke, and voted as a block for RPI? That would leave cronin (mildly suspicious to me), path (difficult to get a read on), and MrBug (very suspicious to me). I'm not sure if all 3 are wolves, but maybe 1 or 2.

I'm going to put in a vote for MrBug today, and I say we look at path and cronin next.

VOTE MRBUG708

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Interesting. I guess he said that would put more suspicion on him, but I still don't see why it would. So does that mean you were thinking that NC was not the convert, and BK tried to kill? And are you now thinking that NC was the convert?

I don't know if NC was the convert or not - if I had to guess now, I would guess that he was the convert. But, given that there was no kill on the night when Barkeep was blocked from action, would've made Barkeep a KISS choice for lynch.

What I mean is, putting my wolf hat on, there is no way that I would've used the knife on Barkeep. I would've used it on somebody that was not going to get lynched the next day. I hope that's clear.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This part of Day 1 interests me. It's everything right after NC's reveal. Could the bad guys have caught on that DT was the duke, and voted as a block for RPI? That would leave cronin (mildly suspicious to me), path (difficult to get a read on), and MrBug (very suspicious to me). I'm not sure if all 3 are wolves, but maybe 1 or 2.

I'm going to put in a vote for MrBug today, and I say we look at path and cronin next.

VOTE MRBUG708

Keep in mind there were 2 votes for me at the time - also 2 votes for RPI, and 3 votes for Neon. So when Neon revealed, I had to change my vote, because it was clear there was likely to be movement away from Neon. RPI was the only other candidate with more than 1 vote.

[hoopsguy]

Is there any value for the people who have been blocked on a given night to come forward with that information? I'm not looking for a bodyguard reveal, but I'm curious who were the two people who were blocked after Barkeep on Night 1.

Cronin, I'm coming around to your way of thinking on RendeR. I think it would be a reasonable play for a wolf to use the knife and then admit to doing so ("oops, my bad") but I'm not sure they would want to take out a potential lynch candidate for the following day. I agree with sliding RendeR up a smidge above the overall group based on this logic.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I had looked at the Day 1 votes on RPI yesterday because I thought it was the largest block of votes so had the best chance of holding at least one wolf.

I'm on that list, as was Telle. You've highlighted the other three people - Bug, Cronin, and Path. If there isn't any kind of new evidence emerging, this could be a "hope the percentages work for us" play. And while I was pushing against Bug yesterday because I believed he was the bodyguard I've now obviously been corrected on this misconception.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I had looked at the Day 1 votes on RPI yesterday because I thought it was the largest block of votes so had the best chance of holding at least one wolf.

I'm on that list, as was Telle. You've highlighted the other three people - Bug, Cronin, and Path. If there isn't any kind of new evidence emerging, this could be a "hope the percentages work for us" play. And while I was pushing against Bug yesterday because I believed he was the bodyguard I've now obviously been corrected on this misconception.

Right -- that list isn't anything I compiled, it's actually just part of the list you compiled a while back. I didn't really look at who vote for RPI before the reveal -- I was focused on what happened after it. Then again, your vote might be worthy of note as well, depending on whether NC was the convert.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Is there any value for the people who have been blocked on a given night to come forward with that information? I'm not looking for a bodyguard reveal, but I'm curious who were the two people who were blocked after Barkeep on Night 1.

Cronin, I'm coming around to your way of thinking on RendeR. I think it would be a reasonable play for a wolf to use the knife and then admit to doing so ("oops, my bad") but I'm not sure they would want to take out a potential lynch candidate for the following day. I agree with sliding RendeR up a smidge above the overall group based on this logic.

Are you asking about the bartender, or the bodyguard?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Keep in mind there were 2 votes for me at the time - also 2 votes for RPI, and 3 votes for Neon. So when Neon revealed, I had to change my vote, because it was clear there was likely to be movement away from Neon. RPI was the only other candidate with more than 1 vote.

That makes sense -- I can definitely see the self-preservation angle. Keep in mind that I'm always mildly suspicious of people who are difficult to get a read on, so you and path are pretty much the same in my book.

[st.cronin]

I'm happy to vote for either Bug or Path. I agree that with the seer out on day 1, we need to scrutinize voting records very closely, as that's our best chance to find a badguy. I'm going to do some research.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm happy to vote for either Bug or Path. I agree that with the seer out on day 1, we need to scrutinize voting records very closely, as that's our best chance to find a badguy. I'm going to do some research.

What kind of read do you have on path, anyway?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Can you explain some more about this? The first time you voted for him, you talked about his reactions, and it was shortly after he said "WE LOST TWO?!?" when both Alan and BK died. I assumed you meant that it seemed like he was overreacting, so you were thinking he knew all along and was just trying to act surprised. But then I remembered that BK was killed by RendeR -- does that mean you're suspicious of RendeR as a wolf, as well?

Immediate reaction after Neon voted off.

[quote]WOW, nice!!![/b]

Immediate reaction after the BAD news.

WE LOST TWO?!?

Object idea, which ti me seems like it could help the wolves a bit more than us since they wouldn't know who has the objects to start with anyway so this only adds the chance that the person an object is passed to is a wolf.

[quote]As for the tray thing that somebody mentioned earlier about shifting multiple to a person, I like the idea if we can get a cumulative effect but we need to at least find a couple people we can truly trust before doing this. Could be a great defense though.[/b]

More immediate reaction, which could go with the over-acting suspicion that I had. This after the RPI lynch.

WTF?!?! Neon...crap. Alan T I'm sorry I cast my vote for you now even though you didn't lose the lynch. I learned a bad lesson in trust.

Quick to believe Neon when it seemed that Neon could have still saved himself on day one by switching his vote to force a tie.

I believe Neon 'cause that was obviously desperate and could screw us.

An earlier attempt to save Neon but the context was actually to force a tie, but when he actually switched his vote it ended up having nothing to to with forcing a tie.

Neon, I'm going to try and stay around with my vote to see if I can force a tie.

Either true newbie question or a feeler asked by a wolf...

I briefly read through the thread, we are assuming four wolves? Is that normal, high, or low?

More over-acting, or just enthusiasm...

Okay, bad, bad night of softball so I need a victory somewhere. Maybe we can lynch a wolf, that would be a nice way to end my day on a high note!

Also, one of the earlier one of these...

[b]vote RPI-fan

Honest sincerity, or something more to it...

Villager and newbie here (game #2 for me).

Maybe I am way off on this one, we won't really know until an action is taken one way or the other. I could be wrong in comparing his style of play to mine. I have purposely not said anything about my role as I feel it would only add distrust.

Logic behind that statement: No matter which side I am on the wolves arelady know it and, in my opinion, saying I am a villager (especially after the Neon debacle) only adds suspicion. Hopefully actions can speak louder than words (but my problem being new is not knowing what actions are always the best actions).

I also apologize for an early mistatement about the voting when I said that a person voting solo on another player could help show who isn't a wolf. I misunderstood how the phases worked and thought votes were either kills for werewolves or lynch votes for the villagers (thinking it would be obvious if there was just one vote for a player and that person was killed by a werewolf it would make it obvious). Eventually I'll get this right.

[EagleFan]

doloa: oops, I did the wrong ending tag for some of those quotes.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What kind of read do you have on path, anyway?

None whatsoever. In fact, I keep forgetting he's even playing.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

None whatsoever. In fact, I keep forgetting he's even playing.

Man, that just hurts.

I don't doubt for a minute that there is a wolf or two somewhere in the RPI voting, but I'm not it. All I thought I was voting for was an absent first day person, which is entirely consistent for me. The mistake I made was that RPI voted just before I did and I missed that in all the hullabaloo going on at the end of that voting.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

None whatsoever. In fact, I keep forgetting he's even playing.

Some help you are!!

[st.cronin]

From day 1:

Votes for known good
RPI-Fan - hoopsguuy, telle, st.cronin, path12, mr.but
AlanT - mrdna, neon, purdue
DaddyTorgo - AlanT, Barkeep, Render

Votes for known bad
Neon-Chaos - oliegirl

Day 2 I don't have an official vote count, but I know there were a handful of votes for DT.

From day 3:
Votes for known good
Telle - st.cronin, oliegirl, passacaglia, mrbug
DaddyTorgo - Purdue

These are only final votes, and are based off of what Lathum posted at the end of each day. Analysis in the next post.

[st.cronin]

I believe oliegirl said that if she had been around she would have changed her D1 vote. For what its worth the worst voting records from days 1 and 3 are st.cronin (voted for both the seer and the bodyguard), PurdueBrad (bizarrely voted for DT on day 3), and mr.bug.

I know I'm a villager, and I realize this data will become much clearer as we have more allegiances revealed, especially if we find another wolf.

Subject to change:

VOTE MR.BUG

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by path12

Man, that just hurts.

I don't doubt for a minute that there is a wolf or two somewhere in the RPI voting, but I'm not it. All I thought I was voting for was an absent first day person, which is entirely consistent for me. The mistake I made was that RPI voted just before I did and I missed that in all the hullabaloo going on at the end of that voting.

I'm not sure I understand, are you saying you would've voted for Crim?

[Passacaglia]

EagleFan -- it's interesting that you've noted he voted for RPI. I hadn't noticed that. However, I think I'm more interested in the people that moved from NC to RPI. I'm buying cronin's reasoning of self-preservation, but his vote for Telle is also damning. Then again I voted for Telle also -- so I can see that as an honest mistake. If Bug is a wolf, I'd be more interested in looking at PB (since I'm not so into this theory that I think we should keep milking it).

[st.cronin]

Another thing to look at from day 1:

ChiefRum- 1 Passacaglia (115)
EagleFan-1 RaidersArmy (140)
MrDNA- 1 ArlingtonColt
HoopsGuy -1 EagleFan (167),
Path12- 1 Crim (308)

I know that when I'm a wolf about half the time I put a vote on a fellow wolf on D1, and in many games it seems like one wolf puts a throwaway vote on another wolf on D1. We're not sure if Neon was the convert, but if he WAS, then the wolves didn't know it. At any rate, it would be pretty surprising if one of these solitary voters WASN'T a wolf. I'm still worried about Crim, and Raiders Army as well.

[st.cronin]

Dola, it also wouldn't surprise me at all if Chief Rum and Pass were fellow wolves. Pass voting for CR on D1 really stands out to me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Another thing to look at from day 1:

ChiefRum- 1 Passacaglia (115)
EagleFan-1 RaidersArmy (140)
MrDNA- 1 ArlingtonColt
HoopsGuy -1 EagleFan (167),
Path12- 1 Crim (308)

I know that when I'm a wolf about half the time I put a vote on a fellow wolf on D1, and in many games it seems like one wolf puts a throwaway vote on another wolf on D1. We're not sure if Neon was the convert, but if he WAS, then the wolves didn't know it. At any rate, it would be pretty surprising if one of these solitary voters WASN'T a wolf. I'm still worried about Crim, and Raiders Army as well.

Are you looking at pairings here, then? If one is a wolf, then so is the other? There are some interesting combos there.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Dola, it also wouldn't surprise me at all if Chief Rum and Pass were fellow wolves. Pass voting for CR on D1 really stands out to me.

Keep in mind, I wasn't around at deadline then. I voted for CR since he was inactive at that point. Hoops told me why he might be, but I kept my vote there, since it didn't seem like it would kill him -- it was just Day 1, after all. But yeah, as much as I hate to say it, me and CR as wolves is one of those interesting combos. But I think people can look at last game and realize that CR and I play differently when we're fellow wolves.