WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!!

[Danny]

Reply #1000

[Abe Sargent]

Woot - quad digits only after a full week of play. Dang.

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, I'm still catching up, but where is our most upside play here, a you vs. Jackal showdown? A you, Jackal, Claphamsa three way since you were all on Pass day 1?

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Actually, he was my 3rd voting choice - so was closer to bottom than top. But I didn't think that he made sense to have as an alternative candidate to me in terms of learning anything.

Another note, for those who are trying to figure out if I'm villager/wolf - why in the world would I have made that distinction yesterday? If I was in the running against a villager (we now know that TheNorm is one) then why would I have been picky about which villager people were pushing?

The answer is - I would not have been picky at all. As a wolf, the goal is to just survive and advance one more day. To always find one better candidate each day. There would have been zero upside, and potential risk to me, in trying to move it to another villager rather than just taking the bird in hand.

The fact that I was trying to drive us to make a lynch that would provide information beyond just one more dead body. The should be viewed as a very pro-village play. I would be interested in hearing any response to this from people who have voted me in past days and are right now leaning towards voting me on Monday.

Honestly this just cements you more in my mind as a wolf. The fact is the wolves are doing amazing, so obviously if you were a wolf, then you are doing amazing. You cant ask me why you would have made any play as the fact is, no wolves have been netted since day 1. So as you say "If I were a wolf I would not have made that play". The fact is you have(in my mind) been making all the right plays. It isnt like the wolves are struggling and you can show us how you helped that result. That is why we are all under suspicion, because the wolves have done so well in hiding. Even I could be one, I have done nothing to further the village so far. I have voted for you alot and then lynched one villager. I admit I helped lynch Danny which got us a wolf but it wasnt because I was good, just RP and lucky. So the argument "If I were a wolf would I have done this?" isnt working as the wolves have made great plays and we need to lynch out(or close to it) to win. I dont really know where to go with voting records because with all villagers getting lynched after D1 makes us have horrible records all around. Even PB has em and he is a villager. I say we stop going after records and go on feel.

[nfg22]

Sorry that was so long.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hoops, I'm still catching up, but where is our most upside play here, a you vs. Jackal showdown? A you, Jackal, Claphamsa three way since you were all on Pass day 1?

I think a runaway on one candidate is the way to go tomorrow - and it should be one of me, Jackal, and Clap.

I think, but do not know, that they are both wolves. So I'm fine with it being on either one of them. But we are going to be down to 9 players, so trying to get cute with a 3 person race would allow 3 wolves to have a lot of sway.

If we have a runaway on a wolf we'll see a second candidate promoted at some point. So it will turn into a two man race.

Bottom line - I think the villager should win together/lose together on the vote Monday even if it does not end up being the final vote of the day. The worst case scenario would be to see the villagers getting fragmented across multiple candidates and allow the wolves a lot of flexibility in how to control the vote.

[hoopsguy]

Stop going with voting records and go on feel? Honestly, the voting records should be contributing to "feel". And players should almost always include "feel" in their play, even when they are the most math-oriented players in the game (I'm almost certainly in that group).

NFG - your response that "this cements you as a wolf" makes no sense to me at all. The rest of your argument doesn't present a counter-argument on why I would have played in that fashion as a wolf, but mostly just says that we are collectively doing poorly.

If you think the wolves are playing such a masterful game, then why do you suggest that I (as a wolf) would take reckless risks in a day that the wolves have in hand by trying to move people off the leading candidate/villager?

It does not add up. If you are bound and determined to vote for me, without really considering any arguments that I might present, then you are either a wolf or a villager who is going to lose this game.

[Abe Sargent]

I have run the Chapter 10 results, and my chick is here for fun and food, so I'm going to be much briefer than usual.

Another night passes, almost grey. All emotion has left you - hope, despair, anger, love. All that is left is going through the motions.

You head to school, not even noticing your breakfast, not noticing the color of the sky or the sound of chidren playing. Everything is grey, not black, not white, but grey.

You arrive and discover that, yes, another of your number has died. This is not a surprise and you face it with no remorse, no disgust - nothing.

You find a ton of various drugs in Hannah's locker.




Hannah Gironi (ntndeacon has died.) She was the Drug Abuser and a High Schooler.

Chapter 10 has ended. Chapter 11 ends MONDAY at 10 pm like normal.

[nfg22]

These reckless risks must have worked out as we killed another villager. Thats what im saying. If you are a wolf, then it isnt bad play because the village is losing. You cant just say "Hey if I were a wolf then it would be a stupid play". Thats not true, the way you have played hasnt gotten you lynched, albeit by a 50/50 chance. You have still kept you credibility to the point where you have been able to lynch even more villagers. You cannot say that you are playing reckless, I see it more as masterful. Yes you may have put yourself on the block but you have succeded on putting other peoples necks just a little closer to that guillotine blade, thus saving your skin for the wolf win.

[nfg22]

...im frusterated and angry...

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[nfg22]

post 1009 is at hoopsguy...

[Abe Sargent]

Since the deadline is not for two days, if you know who you will be voting for, I will consider Nightfall votes, and here is the rule from the original posts requted for you:

Nightfall votes must be unanimous AND I must get the okay via pm from the Blakekin telling me it’s alright to run the Chapter early. Only odd number chapters are eligible for nightfall.

[hoopsguy]

NFG, I'm assuming that there is going to be one more day after this lynch (nine players left, hopefully there are not 4 wolves). When I come back as a villager, where are you going to turn then?

Seriously, I would start considering your alternate candidates now - even if you are only doing it as a good mental exercise.

I'm really trying to help here, but facing blind aggression from people that I'm not sure are villagers/wolves doesn't make it a lot of fun. If people are bound and determined to vote for me I'll accelerate the nightfall and I'm sure that the Blakekin won't stand in the way.

[nfg22]

So where should I turn then? And why not you? Other than it isnt fun being accused? Who elses fun should I take away?

[MartinD]

I didn't have much of an opinion on nfg before, but I'm starting to form one pretty quickly... I don't have much past experience, but it's often a good sign that a player's a wolf when they start getting defensive and aggressive like this.

[nfg22]

Its cool martin. Im not really defensive...aggressive sure. I dont feel like Im being accused at all. Im more just pressing hoops because he hasnt shown me a good reason other than "If I were a wolf I would be playing recklessly." All I am saying is, lynching villagers is reckless but also what a wolf needs to do. I dont see a reason not vote and he isnt giving"me" much of one. The good thing about the game is everyone still alive can vote. So I am not the only opinion.

[JetsIn06]

I'm pretty sure it doesn't hurt to let you all know I was enslutted last night.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

So where should I turn then? And why not you? Other than it isnt fun being accused? Who elses fun should I take away?

I'm asking you who is your next choice, because you are going to be disappointed by the results (if you are a villager) if I'm lynched.

I'm not trying to play "don't vote for me because it makes me sad". But I am saying that it is frustrating not to have a dialogue with people who are accusing me of being a wolf. I present an argument, you dismiss it without considering the core points behind the argument.

Seriously, I'm among the top 2-3 candidates for lynch more days than not in WW. I can take the heat. But if everyone is taking the same approach as you seem to be - vote hoops, no give-and-take in the conversation - then I'm not going to slow you guys down from making a bad move by opposing the nightfall. If I felt that my viewpoints had some kind of audience I would continue to battle because it is good for the village to avoid lynching villagers.

[nfg22]

Yeah...it doesnt help much though. I personally think the enslutted part is weird because no one has been done twice or more...which might give the more attention but it has been evenly put around...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Its cool martin. Im not really defensive...aggressive sure. I dont feel like Im being accused at all. Im more just pressing hoops because he hasnt shown me a good reason other than "If I were a wolf I would be playing recklessly." All I am saying is, lynching villagers is reckless but also what a wolf needs to do. I dont see a reason not vote and he isnt giving"me" much of one. The good thing about the game is everyone still alive can vote. So I am not the only opinion.

NFG - spell out the reasons why you are voting for me, other than feel.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Its cool martin. Im not really defensive...aggressive sure. I dont feel like Im being accused at all. Im more just pressing hoops because he hasnt shown me a good reason other than "If I were a wolf I would be playing recklessly." All I am saying is, lynching villagers is reckless but also what a wolf needs to do. I dont see a reason not vote and he isnt giving"me" much of one. The good thing about the game is everyone still alive can vote. So I am not the only opinion.

I think what hoops is really getting at is that you're not offering anything constructive that's going to help the village to win the game. OK, we're not in a particularly good position at the moment, but this is a game that the village can still win - to do that, however, we need to find wolves, and you've raised enough suspicion in my mind to think that voting for you gives us a good chance of finding one.

VOTE NFG22

(I'm fairly comfortable on this vote, but we have a long time to go before deadline - am willing to change this vote if someone can build a convincing case to go with someone else.)

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NFG - spell out the reasons why you are voting for me, other than feel.

Alright...here is my list first since you asked for that.

1. Hoops- Strikes me as wolfy as well as voting for a villager everyday. I have had this consistent as you can see.
2. Jackal/Clap- I think one or the other is because two people had to be on pass day 1.
3. Lerriqs- I think one had to be off of both Pass. This make Lerriqs jump put in my mind, even though his record isnt horrible.

Hoops- Basically I know I am not experience in handling WW evidence but you have looked to be the masterful wolf. You have played the dangerous game of being a leader who has voiced many candidates but all of them have been villagers. Everytime you speak it seems we listen. So far you have escaped lynch by being a good villager and giving info. Problem is your info has been wrong. Yet with your forthrightness you have been able to keep enough people on your side to escape lynching. It just seems so perfect a wolf play. I may be wrong and my vote isnt set in stone but it is strong. Ask more and I will answer as much as I can. I do not mean to be mindless...Im just not great at articulating always.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by MartinD

I think what hoops is really getting at is that you're not offering anything constructive that's going to help the village to win the game. OK, we're not in a particularly good position at the moment, but this is a game that the village can still win - to do that, however, we need to find wolves, and you've raised enough suspicion in my mind to think that voting for you gives us a good chance of finding one.

VOTE NFG22

(I'm fairly comfortable on this vote, but we have a long time to go before deadline - am willing to change this vote if someone can build a convincing case to go with someone else.)

Im fine with this. Though I will point out that I only helped lynch one villager. I may have not had as much info as hoops/jag/martin/jackal but no one can claim they have really led to any lynches. So I am even with everyone else. That said, I am ok with a vote for me.

[nfg22]

PB...thoughts?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by nfg22

PB...thoughts?

I've tried very hard to not let prior game experiences w/ Hoops push me towards voting him out but I'm to the point where the game feels like one where he is pulling the strings. IF I had to pick now, I think I would likely pick Hoops BUT I STRONGLY encourage people not to follow me because I'm cleared because I'm at a loss right now.

Jackal, Hoops, and Claph is what I think I'm choosing between but we'll see.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Alright...here is my list first since you asked for that.

1. Hoops- Strikes me as wolfy as well as voting for a villager everyday. I have had this consistent as you can see.
2. Jackal/Clap- I think one or the other is because two people had to be on pass day 1.
3. Lerriqs- I think one had to be off of both Pass. This make Lerriqs jump put in my mind, even though his record isnt horrible.

Hoops- Basically I know I am not experience in handling WW evidence but you have looked to be the masterful wolf. You have played the dangerous game of being a leader who has voiced many candidates but all of them have been villagers. Everytime you speak it seems we listen. So far you have escaped lynch by being a good villager and giving info. Problem is your info has been wrong. Yet with your forthrightness you have been able to keep enough people on your side to escape lynching. It just seems so perfect a wolf play. I may be wrong and my vote isnt set in stone but it is strong. Ask more and I will answer as much as I can. I do not mean to be mindless...Im just not great at articulating always.

"voiced many candidates but all of them have been villagers" - I'll pull voting records for this, but I know the last two days I've advocated voting The Jackal and he has not been lynched. I argued against lynching JAG and said that there were better candidates than TheNorm. So while this may have been factual on Thursday morning it is no longer the case now.

"Every time you speak it seems we listen." - clearly that has not been the case the last two days.

"you have been able to keep enough people on your side to escape lynching" - every person here at this point in the game has escaped lynching, although I'm the only one that had to live through an unknown tie-breaker mechanic to do so.

"so perfect a wolf play" - hmm, I would argue that perfect wolf play would be avoiding being in the lynch discussion for the first five days and avoiding being atop the list for several at the start of Day 6.

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, I'll be honest, this weekend for me it's got to be you or Jackal.

What makes Jackal a better lynch candidate than you?

Jackal, same question, what makes Hoops a better lynch candidate than you?

[hoopsguy]

NFG, have you considered what happens Tuesday if I'm the next lynch and shown as a good guy?

1.) You are seen as a primary driver in lynching a roled villagers (I'm suffering from that now with EagleFan)
2.) You are the last remaining person alive who voted for Danny on Day 1. This will undoubtedly be used as supporting evidence.

If you are a villager then you know 100% for sure - unlike the rest of us - that no wolves voted on Danny on Day 1. So it would make sense that the wolves protected him, potentially with multiple candidates.

I had argued on Days 2-3 that the wolves had probably buried a vote on Danny on Day 1 to earn some trust, but I moved away from that once Lathum + EagleFan were off the board. At that point you + TheNorm + PB were the remaining choices, PB was good, and the timing of the votes for you + TheNorm did not suggest wolf.

Now, I'm going to go looking for posts from others supporting the idea that there was a wolf backing EF, since they would have known that there were none (if you are a villager).

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

"voiced many candidates but all of them have been villagers" - I'll pull voting records for this, but I know the last two days I've advocated voting The Jackal and he has not been lynched. I argued against lynching JAG and said that there were better candidates than TheNorm. So while this may have been factual on Thursday morning it is no longer the case now.

"Every time you speak it seems we listen." - clearly that has not been the case the last two days.

"you have been able to keep enough people on your side to escape lynching" - every person here at this point in the game has escaped lynching, although I'm the only one that had to live through an unknown tie-breaker mechanic to do so.

"so perfect a wolf play" - hmm, I would argue that perfect wolf play would be avoiding being in the lynch discussion for the first five days and avoiding being atop the list for several at the start of Day 6.

I dont agree. You have the ability to say " Hey I havent come down from being suspected, So obviously I would be a reckless wolf." This is the problem this game. The wolves have done such a good job spreading out and blending in with the crowd. This leaves us looking at voting records(whis this time dont say much). After records we go by feelings, which you say is wrong. There isnt much to go on. Im sorry but to me it feels as if you are playing us all.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NFG, have you considered what happens Tuesday if I'm the next lynch and shown as a good guy?

1.) You are seen as a primary driver in lynching a roled villagers (I'm suffering from that now with EagleFan)
2.) You are the last remaining person alive who voted for Danny on Day 1. This will undoubtedly be used as supporting evidence.

If you are a villager then you know 100% for sure - unlike the rest of us - that no wolves voted on Danny on Day 1. So it would make sense that the wolves protected him, potentially with multiple candidates.

I had argued on Days 2-3 that the wolves had probably buried a vote on Danny on Day 1 to earn some trust, but I moved away from that once Lathum + EagleFan were off the board. At that point you + TheNorm + PB were the remaining choices, PB was good, and the timing of the votes for you + TheNorm did not suggest wolf.

Now, I'm going to go looking for posts from others supporting the idea that there was a wolf backing EF, since they would have known that there were none (if you are a villager).

Yes but I will also face that if anyone I lynch is a villager. Your my best shot not to hit a villager. Im going with that.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hoops, I'll be honest, this weekend for me it's got to be you or Jackal.

What makes Jackal a better lynch candidate than you?

Jackal, same question, what makes Hoops a better lynch candidate than you?

The last two days I have not voted for a villager, while Jackal has voted for two (one was self-defense).

Beyond that, I think that the value of my analysis in thread has been more substantial over the last two days when I've had the opportunity to really get engaged in the game.

But it is probably going to come down to some amount of gut for people. In your case, I hope that you desire to "not get fooled again" by me does not end up overriding what your WW instincts should be telling you about The Jackal.

One other potential data point - take a look at the voting patterns on Day 2 when I was in a run-off with Pass (villager) versus Day 4 when Jackal was in a close race with JAG (villager). I'll try to do that at some point, but the end result was that Jackal found himself in 2nd and I found myself in a tie. Obviously he had a better result than I did, as I was in jeopardy of being out and he was not. This is a somewhat crude argument, but I'll try to return to it with some more substantial vote/post review.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

I dont agree. You have the ability to say " Hey I havent come down from being suspected, So obviously I would be a reckless wolf." This is the problem this game. The wolves have done such a good job spreading out and blending in with the crowd. This leaves us looking at voting records(whis this time dont say much). After records we go by feelings, which you say is wrong. There isnt much to go on. Im sorry but to me it feels as if you are playing us all.

Vote records are almost certainly going to be hugely important if/when we catch the next wolf. Don't dismiss their value just because we are playing with woefully incomplete information right now.

The trick, in times like this, is to attempt to construct some scenarios around the voting records:
- "Player A" is a wolf - who helped/hurt him?

That is really, really hard to do with 15+ players in a game, but not nearly as hard as the number of remaining players shrink.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

I dont agree. You have the ability to say " Hey I havent come down from being suspected, So obviously I would be a reckless wolf." This is the problem this game. The wolves have done such a good job spreading out and blending in with the crowd. This leaves us looking at voting records(whis this time dont say much). After records we go by feelings, which you say is wrong. There isnt much to go on. Im sorry but to me it feels as if you are playing us all.

I had four points in the post you quoted - I assume that this is responding only to the last one?

Seriously, if you are a villager then start opening your mind up a little bit here. You are on a bad path and it is going to end badly for you + the rest of the village if you get your way.

[nfg22]

Im out for the night...more discussion tommorrow...

[hoopsguy]

I'm also away for a few hours - to be continued later this evening with the following (listed mostly to jog my own memory later):
- Day 2-4: who was supporting votes on Danny voters?
- Day 2: dynamics on my tie vote
- Day 4: dynamics on Jackal/JAG race

[PurdueBrad]

Lets do this, although I will never, ever again NOT vote Hoops if he is a wolf here:

vote The Jackal

[hoopsguy]

PB, I'll take that deal. Truth is, I would take that deal as a wolf as well because I'll always worry about the following game at that time and play for the win in the present game. But in this particular case, I'll take the deal because I have no reason to worry about your wrath since I've been telling the truth.

Just about wrapped up with my first batch of work stuff (very exciting weekend in Baltimore, huh) and I'll start post diving after that is done.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

PB, I'll take that deal. Truth is, I would take that deal as a wolf as well because I'll always worry about the following game at that time and play for the win in the present game. But in this particular case, I'll take the deal because I have no reason to worry about your wrath since I've been telling the truth.

Just about wrapped up with my first batch of work stuff (very exciting weekend in Baltimore, huh) and I'll start post diving after that is done.

Hehe, wish I had a wrath, you would have faced that long, long ago!!!

[hoopsguy]

OK, time to take a look at Day 2. I'm honestly not sure what it will prove as it was villager/villager. But lets run it anyway.

305 - EF votes Pass 1-0
336 - Jets votes Pass 2-0
340 - Pass votes Hoops 2-1 Pass over Hoops
341 - Lerri votes Pass 3-1 Pass over Hoops
344 - MartinD votes Hoops 3-2 Pass over Hoops
346 - PB votes Pass 4-2 Pass over Hoops
355 - Jackal votes Hoops 4-3 Pass over Hoops
356 - Clap votes Hoops 4-4 Pass/Hoops
357 - NFG votes Hoops 5-4 Hoops over Pass
365 - Path votes Pass 5-5 Hoops/Pass
367 - Schmidty votes Hoops 6-5 Hoops over Pass
373 - JAG votes Pass 6-6 Hoops/Pass
380 - Hoops votes Pass 7-6 Pass over Hoops
390 - Lathum votes Hoops 7-7 Pass/Hoops


Observations:
344/355/356/357 - MartinD, Jackal, Clap, and NFG all make votes that help set up and cement the two villager race. Once it hits 4-3 it was going to be hard to introduce a new candidate on this day. Great spot for the wolves.

Schmidty also voted for me. I'm kind of surprised how many of the remaining players did vote for me on this day, although I'm not convinced it is a strong data point for guilt/innocence with Pass being a good guy.

Still alive and uncleared (in my mind):
Pass - Jets, Lerri
Hoops - MartinD, Jackal, Clap, NFG, Schmidty

[hoopsguy]

PB, another couple of potential arguments in favor of me as a villager:

1. Analysis by JAG, a cleared/dead villager, showed that he suspected Jackal over me. I'm sure that there are others that can be brought up who are dead that suspected me, but JAG was actively analyzing the game when he was around moreso than any other player (imo). Does it mean he was right? Nope, but it does mean that you should at least consider re-reading his analysis with the knowledge that he was a villager and was very actively trying to make sense of this puzzle.

2. In a couple of different places, I've shown a lack of complete knowledge of the rules. This kind of laziness just doesn't happen when I'm a wolf ... I'm very paranoid about what roles can block me (I didn't know the BG mechanics), what rules can detect me (I didn't know the Drug user mechanics), etc. As a villager who doesn't have to worry about those things I'm not constantly checking page #1 because I'm mostly concerned about playing my role.


I don't think either of these are knockout reasons not to vote for me, but add them to the list of stuff that I'm compiling this weekend. I'm hoping it is creating a pretty compelling picture for why there are better candidates out there. And that having me as an "auto-vote" for today is is just flat wrong.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I am thinking that hoops is good since we had little late action to try to save him. We have some votes to look into now, at least.

This is what EF said after the Day 2 lynch. Of course, after he was lynched on Day 3 he said that you should go after me because I did not buy his reveal. So that is a decidedly mix bag for me. But his point about lack of movement is entirely accurate. If someone is interested I'll go back to the Day 2 stuff and layer on timestamps along with the votes to help demonstrate this point.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well Im sad we lost someone that could have been so important. I really cant read anything from voting records...it seems that D1 the Blakekins could have hid in the wolf side because Danny wasnt full blakekin. Today, I dont know, there wasnt much switching...making me feel like both were likely good.

This post is pretty soon after the Day 2 lynch and the first that I've seen on Day 3 suggesting looking at the Danny voters. We've eliminated all the Danny voters besides NFG - would NFG have suggested this if he was a wolf? Maybe since there were something like 4-5 other players who fit that bill, but it seems like a bit of a reach. I would call this a minor point arguing that NFG = villager.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

What do we feel about these ensluttings? there are 2 possibilities;

1. Wolves trying tu buy trust, and lying about it

2. Wolves trying to stop people from maybe doing something


I personally would be lying about it if I were a wolf, simply because, we dont really know who has roles, and the trust can be important!

I would like to hear discussion on this (anything)

We now know that the first two sluttings were done on villagers (EF + PB) and I was the third slutting. So, of the options listed above, this would fall under #2 I guess.

Clap says he thinks wolves would lie about it - this clearly was not correct, but it does potentially create some doubt around EF and PB if people follow this train of thought.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, but your approach to reviewing the suspects seems kind of random. And you are one of the people who I think has a potentially pro-Danny vote on Day 1 at a point where it would have made sense for the wolves to try and slow down momentum on Danny. So that was the basis for the vote here.

I'm certainly willing to listen to discussions on other students. As you say, we only have suspects, not cleared folks.

This was my discussion on a Danny voter as a wolf. But upon review I don't see much at all on Day 3 around this topic.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF, I was initially thinking of looking at either the Danny or Pass voters but there are four unknowns on each (I'm treating myself as a known, but if you don't then there are five unknowns on Pass D1) - those are probably not any better odds than hitting a wolf with random selection.

Now, if you assume that there would be two Blakekin on Pass Day 1 - in an attempt to keep the Blakekin alive for another day - then the odds get interesting. As in, better than random. I'm not convinced that this is the case, but I think that the wolves would prefer to keep their numbers elevated, all things being equal.

This was my more complex statement on the matter - looking at Danny voters or looking at Pass voters. I put down an EF vote based almost entirely on vibe. But it stayed there, at the end, based on me not believing his double reveal. In hindsight, I obviously wish that I had given him one more day to see if a counter-claim emerged.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Lets do this, although I will never, ever again NOT vote Hoops if he is a wolf here:

vote The Jackal

Thanks for letting me come and respond to your statement before voting for me, PB

I'll do some analysis later tonight or tomorrow.

[The Jackal]

At this point, hoops, you've said you think clap and I are probably both wolves. But I'm likelier? Why is that, exactly? If there's a wolf amongst the three of us I'd like to get him, and I am not the one.

[The Jackal]

And why did you toss clap out of your voting consideration, PB? Just curious.

[The Jackal]

And clap, since I'm talking to hoops here I'll certainly talk to you as well. What do you think about the three of us and either the proposed runaway vote by hoops, a 3 way runoff between us, or going a different direction?

[The Jackal]

Alright I'm done asking questions unless people respond tonight, I'll try and produce something more concrete later. I'm not sure this is the best direction (Pass voters on day 1) - why couldn't the wolves have spread their votes out then? But if it is the will of the village I will submit to being suspect alongside hoops and clap.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

At this point, hoops, you've said you think clap and I are probably both wolves. But I'm likelier? Why is that, exactly? If there's a wolf amongst the three of us I'd like to get him, and I am not the one.

At this point, we learn more on a vote for you since you were in a run-off with Jackal back on Day 4.

Beyond that, I think that if you are both wolves I would rather pluck you first because Clap's night schedule would probably limit him to putting in conditional orders rather than being around. No idea how that works in a three wolf pairing, but we might as well make life tougher on the wolf team if at all possible.

My best case scenario would be a run-off between you and Clap, but I've more or less resigned myself to being in the run-off. No matter who is in the run-off, I think the villagers in the group will have to be willing to turn it into a runaway if we think that the wolves are in position to steal the win.

Other than what I've outlined above, I'm certainly willing to go down the Clap path instead if that is where the majority of people think we should look. But up to this point, both you and Clap have been way more comfortable voting for me than each other. Despite both of you saying you are suspicious of the other one.