Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Alan T]

dola, I obviously am willing to discuss this further, and my vote is never fixed. But I am placing my vote to get stuff going at least today.

I know I came off strong on sndvls yesterday for his comments to me, they seemed really wolfish, but I also know Sndvls is one of those who usually treat me like that due to an inherent distrust in me. I'm not sold on him as a solid candidate just yet and my impression last night was some of the people moving to him in votes were trying to shift things away from Lathum. I was wrong about Saldana since he is Stars, but i wouldnt be suprised if others last night wern't doing that.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, I guess I'll look for other people's thoughts on Tyrith's Night 1 selection on who to interrogate - does anyone other than Alan think Cronin was not the choice?

Alan, it doesn't help me to trust you when the scenarios that you concoct keep including the wrong people. Bullet on Day 1 (I followed along), Fouts/Cronin standoff for you on Day 2 (I think Cronin is STARS, think there is a higher mathematical likelihood here than any other player in the game at the moment), and continuing down this path on Day 3.

I still won't apologize for bullet's lynch. Even though I am feeling confident Cronin is bad right now, I would rather have lynched Bullet day 1 than Cronin just on the chance of being wrong and the chance to create a voting footprint along the way. Removing someone who is not going to be active, not going to participate and not going to be voting doesn't hurt us at all.

What Bullet's vote did was create day 2 to be our day 1 scenerio except this time with more information than a normal day 1. That led to us getting a bad guy on the day instead of the good guy we normally would have gotten.

So if you want to push blame on me for bullet's death, then please do by all means. I think it helped us in the long run.

As for the Cronin angle, you are really coming across this morning as the wolf-hoops that I have seen before in games. Yesterday I was thinking perhaps we were on the same team for once, but I'm not that sure anymore. You start off by throwing out persuasive thoughts trying to clear Cronin except they were not true. Then you change it to mathematics on why Cronin is the worst choice for a vote today which I had previously acknowledged that Fouts was the safer play perhaps. But then you completely ignore the risk/reward angle which is what makes Cronin compelling for a vote. We have a significant voting footprint right now on Cronin and the possibility he is the infector is good if he is a zombie.

RIght now my thoughts are just like yesterday with Lathum <-> Fouts, today it seems you are out the gate with it being Hoopsguy <-> Cronin.

I already know Cronin -can't- be the police chief, so if you want to talk mathematics , from what i know in this game Cronin has as good of a chance of being -non-Stars as anyone else in this game, so that still makes him my best mathematical choice as well.

[spleen1015]

I don't know if Tyrith scanned st. cronin on Night 1. I do think we can safely assume that st. cronin is not Unbrella. Lathum was his second vote yesterday. I got to play wolf with Lathum in the Tombstone game. This is not a play he would make this early in the game if st. cronin were umbrella.

I think the heat should move off of st. cronin today and we find someone else to go after. Fouts would be a good candidate.

[Alan T]

Out of the 6 people left in the game who havent voted Cronin yet this game (Including Chief who wanted to vote him last night), 2 of those have come out early trying to push us at fouts. Just a random comment of a random observation

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Out of the 6 people left in the game who havent voted Cronin yet this game (Including Chief who wanted to vote him last night), 2 of those have come out early trying to push us at fouts. Just a random comment of a random observation

Who besides spleen?

[Fouts]

Alan, you have done a great job convincing me that you are STARS. I want to thank you for keeping me alive. Your continued heat on me has kept the zombies off my back. I think they are expecting me to be lynched any day now.

[Alan T]

Looking at umbrella further, I don't see any roles that can completely hurt STARS now that Spencer is gone. I'm not sure what Ashford can do with his research though, so that might be something troubling. I think right now it looks like the biggest harm Umbrella can cause us is misleading us into voting for STARS members.

The Zombies on the other hand are a serious threat, they still have all of their members alive (3 I am guessing), they can start converting tonight which just adds to their members and includes the risk of them bringing in someone who has some STARS trust already.

I think right now its just worth the risk/reward to find something out about the Cronin crowd. Its a small group of people led primarily by Hoops and Spleen, but I have looked at some association with Mr.Wednesday, Sndvls and Glengoyne as well. I'm sure there might be others, but these are the main ones I have noted heavier than others.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Alan, you have done a great job convincing me that you are STARS. I want to thank you for keeping me alive. Your continued heat on me has kept the zombies off my back. I think they are expecting me to be lynched any day now.

Don't thank me too much. As soon as I run out of other ideas Im coming back for you

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Who besides spleen?

You can see my list in the post I posted right after yours. Take those names with a grain of salt, as I am just trying to connect the dots somewhat out loud. I don't have a strong feel about too many people.

There are 2-3 people I feel strongly are STARS, and 2-3 people I feel aren't. Everyone else is kind of a murky brown for me right now.

[spleen1015]

Something for the STARS folks to keep in mind.

If the starting ratio was 11-5-3 (STARS-Umbrella-Zombie), we're looking at 7-4-3.

Something else that could mean nothing. Anxiety and Lathum both voted st. cronin Day1 and Day2. Lathum is Umbrella.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Something for the STARS folks to keep in mind.

If the starting ratio was 11-5-3 (STARS-Umbrella-Zombie), we're looking at 7-4-3.

Something else that could mean nothing. Anxiety and Lathum both voted st. cronin Day1 and Day2. Lathum is Umbrella.

Yes, because it was 5-4 Lathum to Cronin. So I am pretty sure if Lathum voted elsewhere it would have been pretty foolish no matter who's team he was on

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yes, because it was 5-4 Lathum to Cronin. So I am pretty sure if Lathum voted elsewhere it would have been pretty foolish no matter who's team he was on

To elaborate a little bit, I know Lathum was an early voter on Cronin before I ever brought up his name as a suspect. But as umbrella he doesnt know who are STARS and who are zombies, just who is not umbrella.

This goes back to what we've already said that we assume Cronin isn't umbrella.. but that still doesn't make him not a zombie

[BrianD]

Is it possible that there are only 2 zombies? The rules say that a dual-kill has 100% chance of working and a single-kill has a 50% chance. Shouldn't we expect 2 bodies or a body and an attack claim every day? With only one body yesterday and 2 today, I'm wondering if there aren't just 2 zombies currently...with the possibility of infection later.

[BrianD]

dola,

I meant we should be expecting 2 bodies every day if there are more than 2 zombies.

[BrianD]

I agree that at this point we should probably be looking for zombies before umbrella. Umbrella can help sway the vote toward lynching STARS, but zombies can kill 2 people a night. If we get a zombie (assuming there are only 2), we cut the night kill chances down to 50%. This would give us more time to find the rest of the bad guys.

[Fouts]

Brian, it is possible. There is only a 12.5% chance at getting caught if the attempt fails.

I'm out until this afternoon.

[hoopsguy]

The fact that I'm defending Cronin does not mean that I am coming out pro-Fouts. Alan, you are the one framing the debate between those two people. I'm not participating in that discussion because I believe Cronin is STARS. I do not have any inside information behind this assertion, but we all make assumptions at some point in the game.
1. I assume that Tyrith scanned Cronin
2. I assume that Cronin is more likely to be STARS than Zombie

I'm willing to revisit #2 if there are compelling reasons to do so.

However, with those as my assumption right now I'm reluctant to go with a Good vs Uncertain as my choices and I remain suspicious of the person pushing that agenda.

If I was going to pick between two people today I would choose SnDvls vs Alan. I think they are unlikely to be on the same faction after their spat yesterday and I am pretty suspicious about the faction of both of these two.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The fact that I'm defending Cronin does not mean that I am coming out pro-Fouts. Alan, you are the one framing the debate between those two people. I'm not participating in that discussion because I believe Cronin is STARS. I do not have any inside information behind this assertion, but we all make assumptions at some point in the game.
1. I assume that Tyrith scanned Cronin
2. I assume that Cronin is more likely to be STARS than Zombie

I'm willing to revisit #2 if there are compelling reasons to do so.

However, with those as my assumption right now I'm reluctant to go with a Good vs Uncertain as my choices and I remain suspicious of the person pushing that agenda.

If I was going to pick between two people today I would choose SnDvls vs Alan. I think they are unlikely to be on the same faction after their spat yesterday and I am pretty suspicious about the faction of both of these two.

Thats not very like you hoops to leave a trail of evidence and start digging for new trails. I gave you the benefit of the doubt yesterday, but I think Cronin turning up bad will mean very bad things for you at this point.

A large number of people took pot shots at me yesterday, including Sndvls, and I am assuming to start that he was doing so to either protect Lathum or Cronin (not sure which). Right now Sndvls is in a larger group of about 5-7 people whom I slightly distrust, but your mis-analyzation this morning has rocketed you right past that group. You're pretty well linked with Cronin right now which I suppose is a good thing for you if he is STARS like you so suggest.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I guess I'm willing to take my chances being linked with Cronin. I'll take it a step further - if you were giving me one person in the game to be linked with at the moment it would be him.

Obviously that would reflect pretty poorly on me if he does turn up Zombie.

[hoopsguy]

I'm willing to leave a trail of evidence when I have grave concerns about the person who is driving the trail of evidence.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm willing to leave a trail of evidence when I have grave concerns about the person who is driving the trail of evidence.

Well then I am more then willing so far for someone to pick up a new trail, but so far all I have seen is people jumping on my suspicions of other people. So far the arguement people are making about Sndvls is they are taking my mistrust of him and blowing it into a case for his lynching. That makes zero sense to me.

Was I distrustful of Sndvls last night for his stunt? Yep. Am I still mistrustful of him? Yep... but its far weirder to me to see me make a simple comment about him that suddenly several people jump on.

Right now if I had to guess, you and Fouts are on different teams, and with both of you championing Sndvls to the cause, well its either a good bluff by your side, or its cause for a second look.

I just find it funny how you're using my arguement against Sndvls as a reason to suddenly make him lynch candidate #1. Maybe he is a bad guy, I have no clue and his stunt last night makes me feel like it is, but you have been far more shady today in my mind than he was last night.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I also do not like how you make it out that I'm "leaving a trail of evidence" on Fouts/Cronin that I never fully accepted yesterday. If I had, we likely would not have lynched Lathum (Umbrella) at the end of Day 2.

I strongly suspect you are not with STARS and that Fouts and Cronin are not on your team, so either lynch would be a win for you and if one is Zombie/Umbrella then you buy some trust. If I was going to put you on a team, I think it would be Umbrella as there were a few times yesterday you tried to bring the group back to Fouts/Cronin by questioning the value of a Lathum lynch.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I guess I'm willing to take my chances being linked with Cronin. I'll take it a step further - if you were giving me one person in the game to be linked with at the moment it would be him.

Obviously that would reflect pretty poorly on me if he does turn up Zombie.

Its funny that once we have pretty much decided Cronin is good Hoops wants to link himself to him....

Hoops you are tops of my list of suspicion

[hoopsguy]

And on the topic of why SnDvls - well, he seems like a good candidate to pair against you since I do not think you two are on the same team. He has played a pretty quiet game up to this point, moving from "trusting you" on Day 1 to "distrusting you" on Day 2. Not a ton of reason for the shift between days as I think your play was pretty consistent between them.

Neither of you voted for Lathum yesterday. You went with Cronin, he went with you. Both of you voted for Bullet on Day 1, although I do not put a ton of stock in that vote.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I also do not like how you make it out that I'm "leaving a trail of evidence" on Fouts/Cronin that I never fully accepted yesterday. If I had, we likely would not have lynched Lathum (Umbrella) at the end of Day 2.

I strongly suspect you are not with STARS and that Fouts and Cronin are not on your team, so either lynch would be a win for you and if one is Zombie/Umbrella then you buy some trust. If I was going to put you on a team, I think it would be Umbrella as there were a few times yesterday you tried to bring the group back to Fouts/Cronin by questioning the value of a Lathum lynch.

excuse me? It was my attacks on lathum that sparked people to vote for him in the first place. Don't misrepresent what happened there. It was very clear to everyone that the people I was pushing was Cronin & Fouts. it was very clear to everyone that I highly linked Lathum and Fouts and posted many times that Lathum was clearly not on our team.

All you are doing now is throwing stuff at the wall and see if something sticks in people's minds. You know that people possibly skimmed through all of that in the morning time, but it was very obvious to those who have read this thread my feelings on Lathum. Its almost like you are insulting the level of play that you think some have by trying to push this.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Its funny that once we have pretty much decided Cronin is good Hoops wants to link himself to him....

Hoops you are tops of my list of suspicion

Interesting, because I don't think "we" have decided Cronin is good. I have suggested I think he is and caught fire for doing so from Alan and, to a lesser degree, Fouts.

Look back at posts from yesterday and see how I played with/against Cronin yesterday - from about 6PM EST I acted very strongly to try and keep Cronin from being lynched.

If you want to go after me because you think Cronin is bad then go ahead. But going after me because I think Cronin is good? Suspect, very suspect.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And on the topic of why SnDvls - well, he seems like a good candidate to pair against you since I do not think you two are on the same team. He has played a pretty quiet game up to this point, moving from "trusting you" on Day 1 to "distrusting you" on Day 2. Not a ton of reason for the shift between days as I think your play was pretty consistent between them.

Neither of you voted for Lathum yesterday. You went with Cronin, he went with you. Both of you voted for Bullet on Day 1, although I do not put a ton of stock in that vote.

For arguement sake, if you were STARS, and you feel strongly that I am not like you assert, and me being very vocal and out front this game and at times on the chopping block... Wouldn't you consider I was the target of a seer scan at some point? So then if you are to believed and are good, and honestly think I am bad, wouldn't someone turning 180 degrees on me from day 1 to day 2 make you not want to kill them as opposed to kill them in case they were the seer?

That is a very huge hole in your arguement there, and it doesnt matter anyways since I am good and you likely are not.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, in a close election votes speak a lot louder than posturing. And despite your linking of Lathum/Fouts, you did not act against either of them yesterday.

But go ahead, make this about me when I call your Cronin vs Fouts BS runoff into question.

[Abe Sargent]

I'm going to follow Tyrith's lead and go with Fouts.

Lynch Fouts

This vote is mobile.

[Tyrith]

New at Applebee's, the Tyrith Special Platter, comes with a side of fries.

Good game, you zombie bastards. I'll be lurking.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, in a close election votes speak a lot louder than posturing. And despite your linking of Lathum/Fouts, you did not act against either of them yesterday.

But go ahead, make this about me when I call your Cronin vs Fouts BS runoff into question.

I think you made it about you when you came out in such huge support of cronin.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well then I am more then willing so far for someone to pick up a new trail, but so far all I have seen is people jumping on my suspicions of other people. So far the arguement people are making about Sndvls is they are taking my mistrust of him and blowing it into a case for his lynching. That makes zero sense to me.

Was I distrustful of Sndvls last night for his stunt? Yep. Am I still mistrustful of him? Yep... but its far weirder to me to see me make a simple comment about him that suddenly several people jump on.

Right now if I had to guess, you and Fouts are on different teams, and with both of you championing Sndvls to the cause, well its either a good bluff by your side, or its cause for a second look.

I just find it funny how you're using my arguement against Sndvls as a reason to suddenly make him lynch candidate #1. Maybe he is a bad guy, I have no clue and his stunt last night makes me feel like it is, but you have been far more shady today in my mind than he was last night.

Im not jumping on you, I;ve backed you.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Im not jumping on you, I;ve backed you.

I would be careful saying such things.. thats the type of thing that causes people to get lynched around here. That and I usually end up pretty distrustful of people who buddy up with me.

So far I have seen nothing but what i think are "good" votes from you, so you aren't on my radar, but we'll see!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

To elaborate a little bit, I know Lathum was an early voter on Cronin before I ever brought up his name as a suspect. But as umbrella he doesnt know who are STARS and who are zombies, just who is not umbrella.

This is not true. You voted for me first, Lathum second. Alan, I think you need to take a step back from your theory and try to think of something fresh. You've been hung up on me the whole game, and it's just not right.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This is not true. You voted for me first, Lathum second. Alan, I think you need to take a step back from your theory and try to think of something fresh. You've been hung up on me the whole game, and it's just not right.

I don't think you read that post in context of what we were discussing. I said I know that Lathum voted for you before I ever brought up Lathum as a suspect. But just because he voted for you doesnt make you clear as STARS

[Glengoyne]

Damn!

Checking in and experiencing an information overload.

I saw the two kills, and thought that maybe Umbrella could kill, then I rechecked the rules page and saw that the zombies can attack multiple times. Is that new information? I compeltely missed it the first time through.

Shit. Two more STARS. I gotta go into the office now. I'll be digesting this on the way in.

[st.cronin]

VOTE ANXIETY

Just a hunch, nothing more. He's voted for me twice, and I am just regular stars.

[BrianD]

In trying to step back and look at some of the players outside of the current suspicion...did anyone notice the drive-by performed by LSG? She stepped in, pointed at Hoops, and then left. It seemed odd that she tried to fuel the fire and then didn't stick around to discuss it. I wonder if she is trying to get us to concentrate on someone she knows isn't in her group?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

In trying to step back and look at some of the players outside of the current suspicion...did anyone notice the drive-by performed by LSG? She stepped in, pointed at Hoops, and then left. It seemed odd that she tried to fuel the fire and then didn't stick around to discuss it. I wonder if she is trying to get us to concentrate on someone she knows isn't in her group?

This is kind of crazy, right now there are votes everywhere and now you are bringing LSG into it. Sure, LSG seems pretty suspicious to me, both yesterday and today..

But right now we have a 4 way tie with 1 vote, and adding her is a 5th person. Right now I don't know of any move that tells us more than lynching St. Cronin. It will speak for him, for me, for Hoops and for many of the people who have chosen to not vote for him once this game, as well as those who have voted for him both days so far.

Just from an information standpoint, this is the only lynch that makes sense to me rather than running off on wild goosechases. As much as I would like to lynch Hoops from what he's tried to do this morning, it just doesn't make as much sense to me as a cronin lynch.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't think you read that post in context of what we were discussing. I said I know that Lathum voted for you before I ever brought up Lathum as a suspect. But just because he voted for you doesnt make you clear as STARS

Ok, I agree with all of this. I don't think Lathum's vote will point to anybody as zombie/non-zombie. I do think it could help us find some umbrellas - these players did not vote to lynch Lathum: AlanT, Anxiety, BrianD, GlenGoyne, Saldana (RIP), Fouts, spleen, SnDvls. It wouldn't surprise me if all remaining umbrellas (2? 3? 4?) are in there. HOWEVER I don't think we want to be looking for umbrellas. I'm not just not sure how to look for zombies at this point.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Was I distrustful of Sndvls last night for his stunt? Yep. Am I still mistrustful of him? Yep... but its far weirder to me to see me make a simple comment about him that suddenly several people jump on.

Alan, just because you saw SnDvls actions yesterday as suspicious doesn't mean that anyone else that also found them strange is just jumping on your opinion. We could certainly have that independently of what you think. I thought it was very odd before I had any idea how you felt about it.

Do I think it's enough to make him my main suspect today? Not yet. But rest assured that if I find a reason to vote that way it's because of my feelings rather than jumping on your coattails.

I went back and read Tyrith's posts. I see where hoops is going, but I certainly didn't see it until he pointed it out. My main concern right now is that I have a hard time seeing how hoops, Alan and cronin can all be stars -- I think two of them are, but I'm not positive which two. I feel best about cronin and worst about hoops.

BTW, I will be out of the office for much of the day on store visits, but will have about an hour or so later in the afternoon and another hour or so this morning.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

This is kind of crazy, right now there are votes everywhere and now you are bringing LSG into it. Sure, LSG seems pretty suspicious to me, both yesterday and today..

But right now we have a 4 way tie with 1 vote, and adding her is a 5th person. Right now I don't know of any move that tells us more than lynching St. Cronin. It will speak for him, for me, for Hoops and for many of the people who have chosen to not vote for him once this game, as well as those who have voted for him both days so far.

Just from an information standpoint, this is the only lynch that makes sense to me rather than running off on wild goosechases. As much as I would like to lynch Hoops from what he's tried to do this morning, it just doesn't make as much sense to me as a cronin lynch.

I understand that we don't want to run off on a wild goose chase, but while we are thinking about the proper way to go, I am trying to look at how others make their points. The remaining umbrella/zombies are certainly going to try to nudge us in the wrong direction, and I'm looking out for those nudges.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And on the topic of why SnDvls - well, he seems like a good candidate to pair against you since I do not think you two are on the same team. He has played a pretty quiet game up to this point, moving from "trusting you" on Day 1 to "distrusting you" on Day 2. Not a ton of reason for the shift between days as I think your play was pretty consistent between them.

Now that you bring that up, I remember being struck by that sequence. It went something like: SnDvls says he thinks Alan is good. Glen follows up later and says something about a link with Alan and Sn. Alan then came back and backed well away from Sn.

I found it odd why he would distance himself so specifically about a general comment like that.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Now that you bring that up, I remember being struck by that sequence. It went something like: SnDvls says he thinks Alan is good. Glen follows up later and says something about a link with Alan and Sn. Alan then came back and backed well away from Sn.

I found it odd why he would distance himself so specifically about a general comment like that.

Me? I don't remember having any opinion one way or another about Sndvls until he came out and made flat out misrepresentations of my posting here that i called him on, but he suddenly left and hasnt come back since.

Can you point out where I did this? because I sure dont remember even thinking about Sndvls until he came out of the woodwork to try to ambush me.

[st.cronin]

These are all very interesting points, but this is the point in most games where I think it makes the most sense to flush out the utr players. LSG, SnDvls, Anxiety ... anybody else?

And, yes, hoops does also make me nervous.

[path12]

Sure, here's the sequence:

Originally Posted by SnDvls #122

Alan - I'm rereading some of your analysis so I have it straight and based on my gut the last two games I feel you've already started to earn some trust. I don't think a non-Stars player would be this helpful this early.

Originally Posted by Glengoyne #152

Allright. I'm finding it hard to get much out of this other than a suspicion that Sndvls and Alan might be on the same side.

Originally Posted by Alan T #155

I dunno, my usual assumption when someone comes out and posts what Sndvls does is that Sndvls is -NOT- on my team and is just trying to buddy up with me to make me not look at him closer. If they think Im a good guy, then they must be a good guy too right???

[st.cronin]

I remember that sequence, path, and I don't think there's anything there. It could mean anything.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Sure, here's the sequence:

Ok, I remember that now. Sure I said that to him, I said that to Anxiety this morning, I'm probably sure I have said that to several others who have buddied up to me this game. Call it distancing if you want, but it is a common wolf ploy to buddy up with someone good to try to build trust. If the wolf agrees with all of your ideas, you are less likely to consider the wolf as bad, since they are not doing anything suspicious.

Like I said this morning to Anxiety, my default reaction is to become suspicious when someone buddies up to me. You can agree or disagree with my theories and provide your reasons why, but I find someone coming out and saying "I think Alan T is swell" without many other reasons very suspicious.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I remember that sequence, path, and I don't think there's anything there. It could mean anything.

Yeah, that seems like a pretty common comment from Alan. He comes out with a whole bunch of analysis and this distrusts anyone that agrees with him.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I remember that sequence, path, and I don't think there's anything there. It could mean anything.

That's cool. It just seemed a little strong for so early in the game (that was day 1 I believe). We all know how WW sharpens the paranoia.....