Werewolf CXL - The Dark Knight Returns - GAME OVER - Page 20

MrBug708 · 10-20-2011, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Yeah, maybe Tyrith was on the right track with his suggestion to vote out people who are not really contributing anything.

I don't think that's the best idea, but it would be pretty easy for two-face to hide out in that list.

I want to vote out Packerfanatic, but I would hazard a guess (and it's probably metagaming) that he isn't two-face, despite not placing a vote. Unless he also didn't place a night kill, which would explain the lack of a night kill, if it wasn't a conversion, but I don't think anyone would agree on that being it

ntndeacon · 10-20-2011, 03:02 PM

One of the things that has struck me are the outlier votes. I am much more interested in them than I normally am. They seem to have more implications this game than most.

A disturbed nudging two face with a vote that wont end in a vote off.
Arkham getting lucky on night 1 and not wanting to reveal, but show who could be disturbed.

There are probably other reasons to hint besides those, but those are a couple that I can think of.

Danny · 10-20-2011, 03:04 PM

Unvote Chief Rum

ntndeacon · 10-20-2011, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

One of the things that has struck me are the outlier votes. I am much more interested in them than I normally am. They seem to have more implications this game than most.

A disturbed nudging two face with a vote that wont end in a vote off.
Arkham getting lucky on night 1 and not wanting to reveal, but show who could be disturbed.

There are probably other reasons to hint besides those, but those are a couple that I can think of.

Clearly SnDvls vote is not in this idea, Since we know at least a little about Zinto.But it is something to keep track of I think.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

It wasn't solely Commo-CF at the time of your vote. Mau was there as well. But I can see your point but you know, you would say all that if you're a wolf.

At the time of my vote, mau had votes but was not a significant part of the vote. He was well behind Commo and CF. mau received a lot of votes after I voted.

Abe Sargent · 10-20-2011, 03:24 PM

Was Listening to: Claudia Leitte, Trilhos Fortes

Now Listening to: Depeche Mode, Shake the Disease

Next in Queue: Chicago, Vote for Me

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I still have no information as a vanilla villager so I'm just gonna throw something a the wall and see if it sticks.

vote PackerFan

again no reason 'cept I don't want to vote Commo at this point

I don't like this vote. PF has not been around. It's metagamey, but we can't help what we know. We know Two Face is active, and PF is not. Ergo, PF is not Two Face.

So this is a throwaway vote with little chance of being a hit, IMO.

We're grasping for a second candidate besides Commo, and this strikes me as a suspicious vote. So I am going to go here for now.

VOTE SNDVLS

MrBug708 · 10-20-2011, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Danny unvotes Hoops (1) 319
CrimsonFox unvotes ChiefRum (0) 359
Jackal unvotes CrimsonFox (1) 389
McKerney unvotes DaddyTorgo (0) 403
MrBug unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 423
Tyrith unvotes AbeSargent (2) 429
Tyrith unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 430

Here our unvotes above, up to 6:30 p.m. (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff time).

Our potential Disturbed Citizen-Two Face pairs are:

Danny-Hoops
CF-Chief
Jackal-CF
Mckerney-DT
Bug-CF
Tyrith-CF

I removed the ntn-Autumn pair, of course, and the Tyrith-Abe pair, since Abe is not Two Face. I am pretty comfortable saying I am not Two Face, so you can take out the CF-Chief pairing too.

I find it pretty interesting that CF was voted and unvoted three times during this period, by three different players (Jackal, Bug, Tyrith).

Looking back at this post, there is one combo that hasn't had one member of the "duo" cleared yet, Mckerney and DaddyTorgo and DaddyTorgo missed a vote yesterday.

ntndeacon · 10-20-2011, 04:13 PM

Looking at all of those possible folks to vote on, not many have raised any questions in my mind yet...At least not enough. But I don't want to spread out the discussion more. I am kinda speculating between Tyrith and MrBug of those choices. Since I know the least about them.

Vote Tyrith

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Looking at all of those possible folks to vote on, not many have raised any questions in my mind yet...At least not enough. But I don't want to spread out the discussion more. I am kinda speculating between Tyrith and MrBug of those choices. Since I know the least about them.

Vote Tyrith

Hmm...while we have acknowledged that the conversion can have happened after the scan, isn't it a likely low percentage play to vote the guy that was scanned by Dawes as a non-supervillain?

Unless you're thinking he's done enough prior to that to be a possible Disturbed Citizen. Regardless, just curious as to your thinking on that.

Danny · 10-20-2011, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Looking back at this post, there is one combo that hasn't had one member of the "duo" cleared yet, Mckerney and DaddyTorgo and DaddyTorgo missed a vote yesterday.

Pretty sure that whole idea of Chief's is a dead end.

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't like this vote. PF has not been around. It's metagamey, but we can't help what we know. We know Two Face is active, and PF is not. Ergo, PF is not Two Face.

So this is a throwaway vote with little chance of being a hit, IMO.

We're grasping for a second candidate besides Commo, and this strikes me as a suspicious vote. So I am going to go here for now.

VOTE SNDVLS

How do we know two face has been active?

Tyrith · 10-20-2011, 04:22 PM

Well, when I say we can't know anything, it's not as much about roles as the nature of our voting data. We can't learn much from the votes because there aren't any connections between the wolves, except for one way between the disturbed citizens and Two Face. Most of the first two days are just chaff. We're still waiting for our starting point to start unraveling the wolves.

SnDvls · 10-20-2011, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't like this vote. PF has not been around. It's metagamey, but we can't help what we know. We know Two Face is active, and PF is not. Ergo, PF is not Two Face.

So this is a throwaway vote with little chance of being a hit, IMO.

We're grasping for a second candidate besides Commo, and this strikes me as a suspicious vote. So I am going to go here for now.

VOTE SNDVLS

cool works for me, but being all metagamey and all....remember I wasn't on night 1 and didn't vote day 1.....just metagamey and all

ntndeacon · 10-20-2011, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm...while we have acknowledged that the conversion can have happened after the scan, isn't it a likely low percentage play to vote the guy that was scanned by Dawes as a non-supervillain?

Unless you're thinking he's done enough prior to that to be a possible Disturbed Citizen. Regardless, just curious as to your thinking on that.

Yes it is a low play. I really just forgot Tyrith was scanned. Regardless there is more chance that anyone is a disturbed citizen than a supervillian still. (I am assuming 2 supervillians and 3 disturbed citizens)

Unvote Tyrith

MrBug708 · 10-20-2011, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Pretty sure that whole idea of Chief's is a dead end.

We don't have a lot of options at this point.

Time to make a move before class.

Vote Lathum

He's been just posting and running. His vote for Narc is rather curious as there hasnt been much discussion on him. I would have at least liked to have seen "I get a wolf vibe" from him as at least it's something.

The Jackal · 10-20-2011, 04:55 PM

All we know is that Tyrith isn't two-face, he could have been converted last night after mau's scan.

The Jackal · 10-20-2011, 04:55 PM

I'm hosting a dinner party so I'm going to be pretty much out of here until the deadline, if the people leave by then.

The Jackal · 10-20-2011, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

All we know is that Tyrith isn't two-face, he could have been converted last night after mau's scan.

Okay CR did say that in response to NTN's vote, I was more looking at NTN's post.

I'm getting a better vibe from Tyrith today than the previous two days but that could be him playing well, not sure. I'll check later to see if there's any steam in this direction or if I need to change my vote.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

How do we know two face has been active?

I see dead people (hoops). And I'm not willing to assume last night's non-kill is due to supervillains asleep at the wheel. Are you?

SnDvls · 10-20-2011, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I see dead people (hoops). And I'm not willing to assume last night's non-kill is due to supervillains asleep at the wheel. Are you?

yet you keep a vote on me? you were grasping at straws to try and put on a quick throwaway vote.

unvote packerfan

vote chief rum

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I see dead people (hoops). And I'm not willing to assume last night's non-kill is due to supervillains asleep at the wheel. Are you?

I'm just saying it isn't certain he is active. On phone so can't check but packerfanatic was on day one so he could have just put in a kill on a typically strong player, was not on yesterday and no kill. just because we have had nk on an extended day 1 and no kk day two does not imply we have an active two face, later tonight will give us more, hopefully, but I can't say it is known twoface is active because of what we have seen thus far.

Zinto · 10-20-2011, 05:16 PM

I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

yet you keep a vote on me? you were grasping at straws to try and put on a quick throwaway vote.

unvote packerfan

vote chief rum

Yes, I keep my vote on you because you chose to throw away your vote on a player who is quite unlikely to be Two Face, given his participation level. And because a runaway on Commo does us no good, and there isn't much to go on with the other candidates that are getting votes. IMO, your PF vote was the worst move among the candidates.

Doing some sort of vendetta vote on me doesn't really make you look better, either.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm just saying it isn't certain he is active. On phone so can't check but packerfanatic was on day one so he could have just put in a kill on a typically strong player, was not on yesterday and no kill. just because we have had nk on an extended day 1 and no kk day two does not imply we have an active two face, later tonight will give us more, hopefully, but I can't say it is known twoface is active because of what we have seen thus far.

No, PF came on after Day One (either Night One or early Day Two), and apologized for not getting a vote in and not being active. And then he missed the Day Two vote as well.

Sorry, I don't see how it's good gameplay to go against the logic here and presume Two Face has not been active. We have a dead villager and to assume last night was because of non-action is just plain foolish.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.

Exactly.

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.

if this was directed at me I never voted packerfanatic, just laid out that we can't tell how active two face has been until he is dead.

saldana · 10-20-2011, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

How do we know two face has been active?

cuz there was a night kill on night one?

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 05:44 PM

Dola, getting bad feelings towards chief, zinto and packerfanatic. Will look up more of their posts when I get home.

Chief Rum · 10-20-2011, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dola, getting bad feelings towards chief, zinto and packerfanatic. Will look up more of their posts when I get home.

lol

saldana · 10-20-2011, 05:47 PM

so to summarize, we really dont know alot about alot of people at this point, me included according to one list, which is fair,as i had no time to post today from work.

for myself, i am always wary of people that have a theory about everyone...it always feels like throwing every player against a wall and hoping something sticks, and i see quite a bit of that today...just random accusations against various people, looking to see who they can get other people to follow on

i want to reread the day after i give my kids dinner before i figure out my vote

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

cuz there was a night kill on night one?

That does not imply activity in thread or game. the n1 kill order could have been put in monday for all we know. It is ludacris to try and gleen activity level of two face based on a night one kill and nothing happening day two. even then we can't tell how active in thread two face is. I'm starting to think two face is quiet and people that know that are trying to help take heat off.

CrimsonFox · 10-20-2011, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Next in Queue: Chicago, Vote for Me

WINNING!

Tyrith · 10-20-2011, 06:25 PM

My vote is staying put unless someone gives me a compelling reason to move it.

saldana · 10-20-2011, 06:32 PM

while i am not a big fan of hit and run votes, i kind of like Lathum's vote on Narcizo...the easiest way to keep attention off yourself is by directing it on others, which is what narc is doing..

for now at least

vote narcizo

Danny · 10-20-2011, 06:59 PM

I really don't know where I am going with my vote. I was on Commo obviously, but not so sure now.

SnDvls · 10-20-2011, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes, I keep my vote on you because you chose to throw away your vote on a player who is quite unlikely to be Two Face, given his participation level. And because a runaway on Commo does us no good, and there isn't much to go on with the other candidates that are getting votes. IMO, your PF vote was the worst move among the candidates.

Doing some sort of vendetta vote on me doesn't really make you look better, either.

That logic fits me to a T

mauchow · 10-20-2011, 07:34 PM

I am still on the road. I will be back at deadline unfortunately. I will try to put a vote in before then. But it will be without reading up on what has happened today.

hoopsguy · 10-20-2011, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708

And it really sucks that if Mau is the Seer, he can't be night killed, can't be converted, and can't be corrupted, while when I'm the Seer I get lynched because I could be lying, could be corrupt, or could be converted.

Not. Bitter. At. All.

This post is full of awesome.

Autumn · 10-20-2011, 07:43 PM

Tonight, on News at Ten, the hunt for the Two Faced Killer continues.

Tyrith - The Jackal
Commo_soldier - zinto, dzilla77, packerfanatic, mckerney, Narcizo
MrBug708 - Tyrith
Danny - commo
Narcizo - lathum, saldana
Sndvls - Chief Rum
Lathum - Mrbug708
Chief Rum - sndvls

ntndeacon · 10-20-2011, 07:53 PM

well I don't really like Narc as that second candidate. Unless I see a better option....

Vote Commo

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 08:03 PM

Back from work, got out a little later than I anticipated/hoped.

dzilla77 · 10-20-2011, 08:03 PM

Well, today's vote isn't going to tell us much, even if Commo is a disturbed villager or 2-face.

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 08:04 PM

Glad to see so much conversation and so many people flying UTR / doing hit and run votes.

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 08:07 PM

Mine as well come out now since I don't think I'll be convincing anyone otherwise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

And I actually got confused, I AM BATMAN!!!

This.

Also, night one I had put in to do my first check on hoops, but switched a little before deadline because CF asked me if he would have my vote. I thought that meant he was the wannabe since that role knew who I was. That is part of the reason I voted CF yesterday.

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 08:08 PM

Unvote Danny

Not sure who I'd like to vote, but earlier today I was thinking Chief, Zinto, Narc, and Packers.

Commo_Soldier · 10-20-2011, 08:09 PM

Triple dola, Also I don't think it is wise for the BG to protect me tonight. I'm done now that I've revealed and can't do any more good staying alive.

DaddyTorgo · 10-20-2011, 08:13 PM

Okay...Football Manager is going...what's up with WW?

Danny · 10-20-2011, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Mine as well come out now since I don't think I'll be convincing anyone otherwise.

This.

Also, night one I had put in to do my first check on hoops, but switched a little before deadline because CF asked me if he would have my vote. I thought that meant he was the wannabe since that role knew who I was. That is part of the reason I voted CF yesterday.

Well we're doing a heck of a job so far this game. Your reactions toward me had me leaning the other way of what I felt yesterday, so I think you are telling the truth. I still don't know where I am going with my vote though.

MrBug708 · 10-20-2011, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Mine as well come out now since I don't think I'll be convincing anyone otherwise.

This.

Also, night one I had put in to do my first check on hoops, but switched a little before deadline because CF asked me if he would have my vote. I thought that meant he was the wannabe since that role knew who I was. That is part of the reason I voted CF yesterday.

On ny phone but didn't the wanabee die before that?

10-20-2011, 03:24 PM	#956
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Was Listening to: Claudia Leitte, Trilhos Fortes Now Listening to: Depeche Mode, Shake the Disease Next in Queue: Chicago, Vote for Me __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

10-20-2011, 05:44 PM	#979
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Dola, getting bad feelings towards chief, zinto and packerfanatic. Will look up more of their posts when I get home. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-20-2011, 08:03 PM	#992
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Back from work, got out a little later than I anticipated/hoped. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-20-2011, 08:04 PM	#994
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Glad to see so much conversation and so many people flying UTR / doing hit and run votes. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-20-2011, 08:08 PM	#996
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Unvote Danny Not sure who I'd like to vote, but earlier today I was thinking Chief, Zinto, Narc, and Packers. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-20-2011, 03:02 PM	#952
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	One of the things that has struck me are the outlier votes. I am much more interested in them than I normally am. They seem to have more implications this game than most. A disturbed nudging two face with a vote that wont end in a vote off. Arkham getting lucky on night 1 and not wanting to reveal, but show who could be disturbed. There are probably other reasons to hint besides those, but those are a couple that I can think of.

10-20-2011, 03:04 PM	#953
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Unvote Chief Rum

10-20-2011, 04:13 PM	#959
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	Looking at all of those possible folks to vote on, not many have raised any questions in my mind yet...At least not enough. But I don't want to spread out the discussion more. I am kinda speculating between Tyrith and MrBug of those choices. Since I know the least about them. Vote Tyrith

10-20-2011, 04:22 PM	#963
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Well, when I say we can't know anything, it's not as much about roles as the nature of our voting data. We can't learn much from the votes because there aren't any connections between the wolves, except for one way between the disturbed citizens and Two Face. Most of the first two days are just chaff. We're still waiting for our starting point to start unraveling the wolves.

10-20-2011, 04:55 PM	#967
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	All we know is that Tyrith isn't two-face, he could have been converted last night after mau's scan.

10-20-2011, 04:55 PM	#968
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm hosting a dinner party so I'm going to be pretty much out of here until the deadline, if the people leave by then.

10-20-2011, 05:16 PM	#973
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I think if you are going to vote for someone because they where no on yesterday and there was no night kill it is a mistake. There is a much better chance that there was a kill on a deranged then that happening.

10-20-2011, 05:47 PM	#981
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	so to summarize, we really dont know alot about alot of people at this point, me included according to one list, which is fair,as i had no time to post today from work. for myself, i am always wary of people that have a theory about everyone...it always feels like throwing every player against a wall and hoping something sticks, and i see quite a bit of that today...just random accusations against various people, looking to see who they can get other people to follow on i want to reread the day after i give my kids dinner before i figure out my vote

10-20-2011, 06:25 PM	#984
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	My vote is staying put unless someone gives me a compelling reason to move it.

10-20-2011, 06:32 PM	#985
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	while i am not a big fan of hit and run votes, i kind of like Lathum's vote on Narcizo...the easiest way to keep attention off yourself is by directing it on others, which is what narc is doing.. for now at least vote narcizo

10-20-2011, 06:59 PM	#986
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I really don't know where I am going with my vote. I was on Commo obviously, but not so sure now.

10-20-2011, 07:34 PM	#988
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	I am still on the road. I will be back at deadline unfortunately. I will try to put a vote in before then. But it will be without reading up on what has happened today.

10-20-2011, 07:43 PM	#990
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Tonight, on News at Ten, the hunt for the Two Faced Killer continues. Tyrith - The Jackal Commo_soldier - zinto, dzilla77, packerfanatic, mckerney, Narcizo MrBug708 - Tyrith Danny - commo Narcizo - lathum, saldana Sndvls - Chief Rum Lathum - Mrbug708 Chief Rum - sndvls

10-20-2011, 07:53 PM	#991
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	well I don't really like Narc as that second candidate. Unless I see a better option.... Vote Commo

10-20-2011, 08:03 PM	#993
dzilla77 High School Varsity Join Date: May 2011	Well, today's vote isn't going to tell us much, even if Commo is a disturbed villager or 2-face.

10-20-2011, 08:09 PM	#997
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Triple dola, Also I don't think it is wise for the BG to protect me tonight. I'm done now that I've revealed and can't do any more good staying alive. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-20-2011, 08:13 PM	#998
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	Okay...Football Manager is going...what's up with WW? __________________ Get bent whoever hacked my pw and changed my signature.

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