Werewolf L Kate Beckinsale - day 7, deadline Thursday 10pm Eastern Time

[LoneStarGirl]

I am going to go ahead and put my vote on Gonzo right now... I have 4 more games left to umpire today and I dont know when I will be back, but I do know it should be before deadline. If something changes between now and then I will come back and change my vote

vote Gonzo

[JHandley]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

If you aren't really into the game then ask Cronin to replace you with somebody who would be.

And I understand the heat on Antmeister but why isn't anybody looking at Gonzo again? I think today should be a runoff between those two guys

Can you explain the heat on Ant other than being quiet?

I'm not looking at Gonzo because I can understand his concern. I thought how Alan choose to get the conversation started on his first night action was very suspecious. I do think Gonzo kept his teeth in on Alan for too long, but, just like I thought with Barkeep, I thought there was legitimate reason to look long and hard at Alan. Is there anything else about Gonzo that you think makes him look bad?

[LoneStarGirl]

the one thing that has been bothering me about Gonzo is he is irritating. The things he has said is just really weird to me and I have never played with the guy, so I think he needs to be looked at more thoroughly. There are a couple of posts that just were weird. And it seemed everybody believe Alant was Van Helsing besides Gonzo and I kind of took it as a wolf who didn't want to jump on the Alant bandwagon because he knew the last people to jump on would be analyzed... so he kind of made a scene about not voting for him.

Maybe I am wrong, but that is what I got out of it

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Nope, doesn't matter anyway. I did something really stupid and I'm just not into the game.

Yeah, that incident. Well if you want to be lynched I'll happily vote for you.

UNVOTE ANTMEISTER
VOTE DODGERCHICK

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

the one thing that has been bothering me about Gonzo is he is irritating. The things he has said is just really weird to me and I have never played with the guy, so I think he needs to be looked at more thoroughly. There are a couple of posts that just were weird. And it seemed everybody believe Alant was Van Helsing besides Gonzo and I kind of took it as a wolf who didn't want to jump on the Alant bandwagon because he knew the last people to jump on would be analyzed... so he kind of made a scene about not voting for him.

Maybe I am wrong, but that is what I got out of it

If I was a wolf, why did I stick with my Alan T vote rather than jumping on Tanglewood to save my packmate Chief Rum?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

Yeah, that incident. Well if you want to be lynched I'll happily vote for you.

I had asked the parties involved to keep the 'incident' out of the thread, but it seems that its too late. Here's what happened: Dodgerchick responded to the group pm titled "important," thinking, based on other information she had, that that pm indicated that she was a wolf. She responded to the following people, thinking they were all wolves: tanglewood, gonzo, neon_chaos.

As I told those three, considering the circumstances, it is as plausible to jump to the conclusion that she's a villager as it is to conclude that she's a wolf. I don't believe this situation has affected the game, and I don't believe it will. Nevertheless, DC has asked to be removed from the game, and I'm trying to find a replacement, although I hope she changes her mind.

I apologize for the mix-up, it is entirely my fault, not DC's.

[Telle]

Soooo... now we all just pretend we didn't see that and move on

Current vote count:

1 - RendeR - path12
1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos
1 - LoneStarGirl - Dodgerchick
1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl
1 - Dodgerchick - Gonzo

[st.cronin]

Oliegirl is replacing Dodgerchick.

[st.cronin]

dola, I'm not counting Dodgerchick's vote. Oliegirl will have to make her own vote.

[Telle]

Welcome Oliegirl.. good luck catching up with 20 pages of posts!

Vote count reflecting personnel changes:

1 - RendeR - path12
1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos
1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl
1 - Oliegirl - Gonzo

[Barkeep49]

Olie! Good to have you back!

[JHandley]

Updated vote count after Cronin's ruling that DC's vote won't be counted:

1 - RendeR - path12
1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos
1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl

[oliegirl]

Hey guys! Just checking in...if someone wants to help me and give the "reader's digest" version of what has been going on that would be great. I'm going to skim through all 20 pages of posts but any additional info would be awesome.

[JHandley]

nevermind, I misread the vote count. It's still:

1 - RendeR - path12
1 - Antmeister - Neon Chaos
1 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl
1 - Oliegirl - Gonzo

[Telle]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Hey guys! Just checking in...if someone wants to help me and give the "reader's digest" version of what has been going on that would be great. I'm going to skim through all 20 pages of posts but any additional info would be awesome.

Day 1: no lynch, Jonathan Ezarik killed by wolves
Day 2: tie between Neon Chaos and Barkeep49 yields no lynch, Lathum killed by wolves
Day 3: Alan T reveals he is Van Helsing, lynch Chief Rum - and he's a wolf!, Alan T is killed by wolves

[JHandley]

Oliegirl, it's also important to note that we had a lot of utr and absentee voting and opinions due to the weekend. The game started early and a lot of people (unlike myself) have things to do during the weekend

[Telle]

Hmmm.. I have to leave work at 4 and I have no idea if I'll be back before deadline. I was hoping to vote before I leave.. but right now we have four spread out votes and no conversation going on, so that's certainly not helping me make a decision!

[KWhit]

I took a little time to compile all of Ant's posts here as I was looking at him for a possible vote candidate. I'm not sure what I think now. He hasn't posted much and been very UTR, but has made a couple of slight references in support of Alan and against Chief Rum, so now I'm not sure... I post this so others can analyze if so inclined, but as of right now I'm still undecided on him.



Post 194:

Originally Posted by Antmeister

No clouds here, unless you are talking about the weather in that far off land called Austin, TX.

I have finally read some of this thread and my vote:
VOTE NO LYNCH

There is just no way for me to know who is who at this point and I don't want to randomly pick off someone.

Post 397:

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Well anyone is free to scan me. And at this point, I still don't have much information to go on. However, I would have to agree with Lathum about the aggressiveness of Barkeep's accusations. So I will go ahead and:

Vote Barkeep

Post 453 (Responding to DaddyTorgo who said "That's an interesting fustercluck there"):

Originally Posted by Antmeister

That's an understatement. I am not quite sure why people are so strong on Neon Chaos. There is nothing in his verbage that seems out of line, yet Barkeep is all over the place. Hmmmm.

Post 486 (Responding to Barkeep):

Originally Posted by Antmeister

You know, after the sequence of events that just occured, I am starting to side with you and AlanT. That last minute barrage does make you think. The fact that someone used something against AlanT makes me wonder if it were some sort of smokescreen to put our eyes on him. And now this anger for AlanT seems a bit odd. Right now, Chief Rum, LSG and Neon Chaos has me wondering about them.

Chief Rum is one of my candidates because he voted the odd man out. Not 100% sure on him, but suspicious.

LSG seems to want to pry the eyes away from Neon Chaos a little too hard. While I didn't understand the focus of his non-voting, I didn't understand why she began to mention that I had the same post count as him, because I might be next. I guess she doesn't realize there are others here with the same and that makes me wonder.

And the only reason why Neon Chaos suddenly became suspicious is that he could have easily changed his vote at the last moment, but I guess he didn't want to look too suspicious, so this barrage of votes for Barkeep came out of nowhere. Hmmmm.

Post 589:

Originally Posted by Antmeister

The way I currently see it is that Neon Chaos was possibly a wolf and there was a last minute barrage to turn the vote elsewhere. I am glad that AlanT illustrated all the votes that came within that short window of time, because I am becoming really suspicious.

Vote Neon Chaos.

Damn it, he has to at least be a mad scientist.

Post 897:

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Even though I didn't vote for Chief Rum in this round, I did suspect him and it looks like AlanT was innocent as I had mentioned earlier as well. So right now I am deciding between LSG and Neon Chaos. One or both has got to be a wolf. Just gotta be.

[oliegirl]

I've been catching up, but I have a meeting to get into in the next 10 minutes...I'll be back on later though. I don't feel that I should say anything until I'm done reading through the posts...

[Schmidty]

I just woke up (I work graveyard at the local newspaper), and about to go eat lunch, but I'll be back in an hour or two to catch up.

[Telle]

Ok, so out of the four candidates currently with votes.. don't want to vote off Oliegirl when she's just started, and looks like the momentum has swung off of RendeR.. so that leaves Antmeister and Gonzo. Not feeling anything definitive on either one of them, so I'll just pick one to make sure I get a vote in..

VOTE GONZO

[path12]

I just went through all RendeR's posts.

UNVOTE RENDER

On reflection I don't see what I thought I saw before.

[JHandley]

I agree the vote seems to be between Gonzo and Ant. To try to get some conversation started I'm going to vote for Ant.

Reading back through Ant's posts, he's made some odd leaps of logic and pushed some weird ideas through. He sided with BK and Alan and they were argueing against each other.

Gonzo has been acting odd as well, but for the moment I'm willing to write it off as simply having blinders on for his first instinct.


VOTE ANTMEISTER

[oliegirl]

This is actually how I am leaning...after reading through most of the thread, Antmeister seems to be flip flopping alot and some of the things he said I just didn't see the reasoning behind. I'm not officially voting yet, and am certainly open to discussion but this is where I'm at right now.

[DaddyTorgo]

i've been following along. my day ended up a lot busier than expected (i just had lunch at 4pm), so i will have some thoughts and vote when i get home.

[KWhit]

VOTE ANTMEISTER

After thinking this through, I think Ant is a better play than Gonzo or Render. I don't have a strong feeling of guilt from anyone else yet either, so for now my vote goes to Ant.

[cartman]

I agree that Ant has been strangely quiet. I've seen him lurking in the thread, so it is not like he hasn't been around. Let's try to draw him out.

VOTE ANTMEISTER

[oliegirl]

VOTE ANTMEISTER

[tanglewood]

I have it at 7 for Antmeister and 2 for Gonzo. 4 votes in a row for Antmeister and 7 of the last 9.

[JHandley]

We are no where.

[path12]

Gotta say, I don't get the Antmeister thing at all. I'm sticking with the guy who ensured the no lynch day 2. I don't think Chief's posts about him clear him at all.

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[RendeR]

People are missing my vote for antmeister in post #939

[DaddyTorgo]

jeezus. Pile on Ant

[st.cronin]

Vote count:

7 - Antmeister - Neon_Chaos (910), RendeR (939), Gonzo (941), JHandley (973), KWhit (976), cartman (977), oliegirl (978)
2 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl (951), Tele (971)
1 - oliegirl - Gonzo (954)
1 - tanglewood - path12 (981)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

jeezus. Pile on Ant

it is a bit much, but there are no compelling arguments for anyone really. I followed neon's vote because he did some digging and showed some proactivity. I trust him for the time being because his digging pulled my ass from the noose, so I'll follow his lead for now.

I'm open to hearing compelling evidence for others, but nothing has been forthcoming.

[JHandley]

This should be a lesson for future games. If you don't get a mindless Day 1 lynching, you get a mindless day 4 lynching.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by JHandley

This should be a lesson for future games. If you don't get a mindless Day 1 lynching, you get a mindless day 4 lynching.

day 1, Day 4, Days 2,3,5,6,7,8 etc, whats the difference?

[JHandley]

That's what I'm saying. We're just making up for lost time today.

[tanglewood]

Okay, based on the way voting panned out last night I am now working on the assumption that Path12 and Barkeep are both good guys, which for now I think is a reasonable position to take. Chief had little heat on him at the time of the switch, which was suggested by Barkeep, not Alan, and those two along with Alan were the first to move. Daddy Torgo is also partially in the clear as he made the tying vote and moved off me, so he gets credit, though not as much because he didn;t instigate it. Once it was tied, and a given that I would vote for Chief as already stated I would if it could save me so really Chief was already in the lead, votes carry less value, merely making sure there would be no tie. The final two votes, Cartman and Render I would say are almost worthless for voting record purposes, turning a 7-4 into a 9-4.

So if we go back and look at voting with the following scenario:

Tanglewood, Lathum, Alan T, Jonathan Ezarik = 100% clear
Path12, Barkeep, DaddyTorgo = 80% clear
Chief Rum = Bad

Then look at the voting charts I see one player who jumps out at me: Cartman.

On day he one votes early for Jonathan Ezarik, known human, when the vote was JE 2 / Dodgerchick 1 / Telle 1, to give JE the lead by two clear votes. It is very common on Day 1 for someone to build any kind of voting momentum and be a runaway lynchee, so at the time Cartman put the third vote on JE it was IMHO very likely he would be killed that day. Day two, he votes for Neon Chaos when the votes were Neon 4 / Alan T 2 / Barkeep 2 and a few others on one, placing the fifth vote to give NC the lead by three. We don't know anything about Neon at this stage for sure, but I think he is a likely villager (just on a hunch level, not on the p12, barkeep level). Day three, comes out and votes for Alan T, confirmed goog guy, when the vote is 3-1 in his favour versus Barkeep (cites "voting patterns", presumably the non-barkeep vote at the end of day 2). After Alan's reveal switches to Barkeep, likely good guy, with no explaination. Late in the day he places the 8th vote on Chief rum when he is already 7-4 up with literally minutes to the deadline. Today he placed the sixth vote on Antmeister to put him 6-2 ahead. Cartman has consistently been voting with the majority, only one time not voting for the player in the lead at the time, when he switched of the leader Alan T immediately after the reveal, while offering no real new analysis or suspects. He has also been voting for people who I either believe are clear (Barkeep, Alan T, Jonathan Ezarik) or have no particular reason to suspect (Neon Chaos, Antmeister).

It is difficult to read too much into vote patterns at the moment. Usually by day 4 we have two more people dead so more confirmed information about voting records. As it is we have 4 dead players instead of 6 so this is a like a Day 3 lynch on Day 4. So with not much to go on I will for now

Vote Cartman

[Antmeister]

Wow! Lots of votes here for me, but let me look back.

[DaddyTorgo]

that sounds compelling to me tangle

VOTE CARTMAN

[DaddyTorgo]

and yes. I know that follows the "quote something long and agree" school

but i'm not going to add to the pile on ant, whether or not he's guilty, because i'm good and that just makes me look bad.

And tangle's argument for cartman has some weight to it.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by path12

Gotta say, I don't get the Antmeister thing at all. I'm sticking with the guy who ensured the no lynch day 2. I don't think Chief's posts about him clear him at all.

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

I agree with this for various reasons, but I don't really feel comfortable voting for anyone with the scant amount of evidence we have today (unlike yesterday), although I know I will have to eventually here.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Vote count:

7 - Antmeister - Neon_Chaos (910), RendeR (939), Gonzo (941), JHandley (973), KWhit (976), cartman (977), oliegirl (978)
2 - Gonzo - LoneStarGirl (951), Tele (971)
1 - oliegirl - Gonzo (954)
1 - tanglewood - path12 (981)

You have Gonzo voting for both Antmeister and oliegirl. The vote for oliegirl is the later vote.

[tanglewood]

Times voted for

Neon	12
Tangle	12
RendeR	11
Chief Rum	10
Antmeister	9
Barkeep	9
Alan T	8
JE	6
Telle	2
Gonzo	2
Cartman	2
DC / OG	1
Lathum	1
Path12	0
DaddyT	1
Jhandley	0
LSG	0
Kwhit	0
Schmidty	0

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

and yes. I know that follows the "quote something long and agree" school

but i'm not going to add to the pile on ant, whether or not he's guilty, because i'm good and that just makes me look bad.

And tangle's argument for cartman has some weight to it.

Well, I wouldn't worry about that. I am the first one to admit that I'm not the best WW strategist by any means, so I think posts like tanglewood are a good thing, because they give me something to think about other than my own "feeling" suspicions. I think tangle's post has merit, and would like to hear more discussion about it, so:

Vote cartman

[tanglewood]

Path12 should have one vote in his column too.

Yeah it's not very useful on the surface, but I'm a bit lost right now and am just throwing stuff around in my mind and seeing what fits together.

You can spin that list both ways.

a) People at the top are more likely to be wolves, as more people have voted for them because they are acting suspiciously.

b) People at the bottom are more likely to be wolves, as wolves are less likely to vote for fellow wolves (until they've been outed), so they have a smaller pool of potential players to vote for them.

But of course, it could just be useless.

[path12]

Interesting analysis. But how do you square that with Alan seeing player X visit and take something from Cartman night 2?

If he had come up a wolf, whoever viewed him would likely have stated it by now.

[Antmeister]

Well I will try to defend myself by showing what the apparent werewolf was trying to do to me.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Slow conversion, people? Come on, do you all really believe that bull? It's not like that is a common action in WW games. I hardly think we should leap to it here. Alan had a visitor last night. We don't know if that person was good or bad. Alan hasn't said he isn't the same as yesterday or that his status has changed. So I say we have very little good reason to lynch him today.

I defintiely don't like BK arguing against AlanT on the grounds he is when he voted No Lynch, and was very anti-lynch all day. I'm not saying he can't argue it, but it just seems hypocritical and has less impact because of that. I mean, if BK really wanted Alan to lynch JE, he could have made it possible himself by switching his own vote.

That said, I am staying out of this one. I don't think either Alan or BK or wolves. We need to wait another night and see if someone else comes out with the same information.

I am leaning toward the useless villager ploy, but there are too many votes on Neon Chaos. We'll learn more in a closer vote. So I'm putting my vote on the other UTR player.

VOTE ANTMEISTER

Well here is his first vote against me. This made me suspicious because I couldn't understand the reasoning since there were other potentials at the time who could have been wolves. However it was early and I wasn't sure what to think about it.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lol...side with Barkeep and AlanT? You realize, they have pretty much been at opposites to one another the whole game, right?

Now, as to the rest of your post, while I agree with your opening premise regarding the possibility that AlanT's little PM might be a red herring (I mean, not a wolf thing), you go haywire after that. First thing, with your suspicion on me, I don't really understand what you're getting it. I voted for you as the other UTR type of player (like Neon Chaos), because I felt we needed another candidate and didn't like the early run on Neon Chaos. I wanted to be sure it wasn't a runaway where wolves could hide in a bandwagon. At the time, there was no momentum for BK, and Neon was the only candidate seriously at risk at that moment. I'm not really objecting to your point of view (yet), because I just don't have a clue what you're referring to by me voting "the odd man out", as you say. If you could clarify, I would appreciate it.

And your last paragraph about Neon seems to suggest he was around and didn't change his vote. And actually, he wasn't around at all from what I can see. Just like yesterday, he just flat missed the vote.

If I were a wolf, he wouldn't have a need to expound on my statement. However after looking back at this, I am less likely going with Neon as a wolf since he was going after him hard as you will see below.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lol, I did forget about that. Looks like I wasn't alone. That's a pretty crappy way to vote, too. Now I remember why there was a run on him in the first place. Why on Earth were there enough votes on a contributing Barkeep to keep us from voting out Neon for missing a vote, and randomizing a Day Two vote and not posting or participating? At least I have the excuse of not being around at the deadline. What are your excuses (that's to everyone around at deadline, not to Telle)?

....and in this keep he seemed very concerned about keeping Barkeep alive. So now it make me wonder about Barkeep again, which was one of my earlier votes.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, I have finally caught up to myself.

I cannot believe you guys allowed us to go into a tie. Inexcusable. Going one day without a lynch is bad enough, but two?

And as I pointed out in the post before this, the right candidate was on the block in Neon Chaos, on the useless villager reasoning, which was a heck of a lot more than we had on anyone else as a potential wolf. If I had foreseen this nonsense, no way do I vote for Antmeister. But how could I have seen this coming?

I'm going to review the sequence of votes at the end, but I already have a couple people in mind that I think really made some odd, awful decisions here.

And I mostly likely looked at that last minute barrage in the wrong way. Once again, Chief Rum is just going after Neon Chaos and excuses himself for voting against me which would have been a deciding vote. Now I am still not 100% sure if this was a ploy, but I am definitely over 60% sure that possibly Neon Chaos is a villager.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This makes it 6-4 Neon Chaos. Sensible self-preservation vote. Just noting the sequence of votes here. There have been two votes now since Alan's vote update at 9:18 (which seems to be accurate other than Neon's missed vote on DT, but even if it was off a lot, that's the last tally everyone would have been going off of at this point).

Here he goes after Neon again.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't know how much blame to assess here. I know LSG was under the gun, and I doubt she was aware of the tally. She says she hadn't read pages 8 and 9, and there were several votes there.

The problem I see here is her reason for voting BK is to keep Alan around, but Alan only had one vote on him at the time. No pressure here at all. So why does he figure in a choice between BK and Neon?

I would see this as a good vote if LSG knew she was breaking a tie in favor of BK (6-5 BK at this point) and ensuring us a lynch (you would think), but I think it's clear she doesn't know at all at this point. So I'm not going to give her credit for the move.

And here is his excuse for LSG which I still retain has to be in with the wolves.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So most suspicious out of this...


AlanT (one of the two tying votes, including the last one; had suspicious PM although admittedly he's the one who made mention of it in the first place; also made a critical nonvote on Day One at the deadline, avoiding the head-to-head like tangle did on Day Two)

Render (switched from Neon to BK and created the first tie, later crediting this switch to his belief in Alan's anticipated vote--working in tandem?; voted right after Telle also made controversial vote)

tanglewood (could have broke the tie right at the deadline, but didn't)


Next group...


Telle (driveby vote that initiated the rush on Barkeep, which also saw Render play a part; she is down lower because her vote didn't tie it or fail to break it)

LSG (I can't give her credit for breaking the tie, because I don't think she was aware of it; made vote that was inconsistent with posted reason, when Alan wasn't an issue in the vote)


Next group...


JHandley, DaddyTorgo, Antmeister...you all posted within 15 mins of the deadline either before or after it. That means you were likely around and could have changed your votes. At least you three were on the principals involved.


Yesterday's candidates...


Neon Chaos (seems unlikely to be a wolf, but hasn't been helpful, and that's not much better--offers an excuse any of us could make, and even being on the other side of an ocean isn't unique, with tanglewood actively participating)

Barkeep (say what you want about the other reasons to take a stand on him, which are legit, but his late vote was entirely consistent with saving his own ass)

Ugh...more protection for Barkeep and although he mentions LSG and the 2nd tiered suspect, she has an excuse again.

So right now, after looking back on the posts from Cheif Rum (who has already been identified as a wolf), I will have to say it is either Barkeep or LSG.

[path12]

BTW Tangle, even though I'm voting for you now I do appreciate the charts you've done.