WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Autumn]

For the record, while I gave a list of probable wolves yesterday, I was clearly wrong about one of them, and am going to keep an eye on the others. I think Darth is a good vote for now, if only to get him active.

[J23]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm hoping J23 will confirm that he received the mistletoe, assuming that it did in fact get to him.

I can confirm that I got the mistletoe.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chubby

and lathum - it was 7-5 (not 7-6 as you claimed post lynch) at the point of your switch as EF had unvoted me. i think you moved because you saw the writing on the wall and wanted to build trust at that point but I'll let others discuss that.

I didn't see EF unvoted right after the vote count. I was trying to not burn my house down while playing with my family and making dinner. You can choose to believe me if you like. I'm really done trying to defend myself against you. Just about all your arguments against me are irrational and I can't defend against that.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Not wishing to seem to be overtly defending Lathum but if he didn't pass it to Chubby then can't the person who passed it on come forward and claim that they gave it to him instead? And if Lathum did pass Gleipner to Chubby then doesn't that suggest that the chances are he's a villager? If I was a wolf and had been given Gleipner I'd make sure that the non-Fenris wolves pass it between themselves.

There's always a chance that Dubb had passed it.

[J23]

Lathum, was there any reason that you didn't want to actually name the item during all the drama? That's the part that seems particularly odd to me about the whole thing.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by J23

Lathum, was there any reason that you didn't want to actually name the item during all the drama? That's the part that seems particularly odd to me about the whole thing.

I've already said why. I saw no reason to give the wolves added info. The fact I passed him an item and no one countered that fact should certainly be enough but he has major tunnel vision against me.

This is of course pending what EF has to say.

[Autumn]

Actually thinking about it for ten minutes, and looking back again at Barkeep's posts, I'm going to go that way instead. I think Darth is a good vote, but I was absolutely sure when Danny came out that if Danny was bad, Barkeep was playing good wolf. It's the best hunch I've got now. Looking back through the day it seems to me he was trying to place himself as the guy who we say "Barkeep was really going after Danny, he can't be a wolf." Yet he was voting for Chubby, and even after saying he agreed with Chubby's story still didn't unvote him for three hours.

If Barkeep's a villager, I apologize, it sucks to do very villagery things like chase a wolf and cast a deciding vote on a wolf and get pilloried for it. But I've got a hunch on you.

unvote darth vilus
vote barkeep49

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm not nearly as locked in on voting for Lathum today as I was for voting Danny yesterday. I don't think we're going to get any kind of clear-cut yes/no on him, but I view this case as a little more circumstantial than the Danny stuff from yesterday.

Beyond that, if I was going to do voting analysis I would probably look harder at Day 1 than Day 2 because I think that the wolves probably had Danny as a dead duck earlier in the day. They would have been elated to keep him around, but it was not a productive use of their votes to get isolated defending him. So I'm more agreeing with what Narcizo laid out, rather than suggesting we focus on "late D2 switchers".

This summarizes my views pretty well. I think, in other words, that there is likely wolves on him early, giving him up for lost, some wolf movement away when he looks like he'll be saved, and then movement back later when he's gone for sure. Unfortunately this doesn't make me look particularly good in terms of voting record, but I would argue my posts vindicate me there.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Actually thinking about it for ten minutes, and looking back again at Barkeep's posts, I'm going to go that way instead. I think Darth is a good vote, but I was absolutely sure when Danny came out that if Danny was bad, Barkeep was playing good wolf. It's the best hunch I've got now. Looking back through the day it seems to me he was trying to place himself as the guy who we say "Barkeep was really going after Danny, he can't be a wolf." Yet he was voting for Chubby, and even after saying he agreed with Chubby's story still didn't unvote him for three hours.

If Barkeep's a villager, I apologize, it sucks to do very villagery things like chase a wolf and cast a deciding vote on a wolf and get pilloried for it. But I've got a hunch on you.

unvote darth vilus
vote barkeep49

Didn't see this before I made my post in 958. I think my defense is that no wolf would have gone to the extent that I did.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I've already said why. I saw no reason to give the wolves added info. The fact I passed him an item and no one countered that fact should certainly be enough but he has major tunnel vision against me.

This is of course pending what EF has to say.

I don't think EF stated that he passed him an item. I'm not sure where that came from.

I guess I just find it puzzling that since he got the item, he certainly knew the name of it, and you knew that if he was a wolf, they'd all know what it was. I'm still not sure why Chubby was insistent that you name the item, and why you were so adament to not name it at the time. My guess was that he might have thought that Dubb sent it to him, and wanted you to confirm it since Dubb couldn't speak up from beyond the grave.

[Autumn]

Yes, Chubby's theory feels like a bit of a stretch - why would Lathum come out in the first place and claim he sent it if he didn't? It's not going to buy enough trust to be worth it, and he'd have to hope Chubby never asked him what it was, or let it slip himself. Maybe there was reason for a wolf Lathum to make such a reveal, but it's not clear to me.

[Autumn]

I suspect that there's rules about dead villagers going to Valhalla, but funny this is that it's day three and we don't have any dead vanilla villagers yet. JAG must be annoyed.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Mckerney was probably Danny's most vociferous defender but I honestly don't think Danny would let him put himself out there so much as a fellow wolf. I think we want to be looking at people who were taking a middle road to Danny with maybe one or two who were against him. I actually feel better about mckerney now then I did before.

Well, even in any defense of Danny I had said I didn't completely trust him, but felt it was the safer play not to lynch him. My biggest issue with yesterday was Chubby wanting us to trust him that he was 100% certain without actually sharing info to back it up, I still feel like he made a guess and oversold it because he was on the block.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by J23

I don't think EF stated that he passed him an item. I'm not sure where that came from.

I guess I just find it puzzling that since he got the item, he certainly knew the name of it, and you knew that if he was a wolf, they'd all know what it was. I'm still not sure why Chubby was insistent that you name the item, and why you were so adament to not name it at the time. My guess was that he might have thought that Dubb sent it to him, and wanted you to confirm it since Dubb couldn't speak up from beyond the grave.

I don't have time to post dive, but I am pretty sure he asked Chubby if he got the item he sent him

[J23]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't have time to post dive, but I am pretty sure he asked Chubby if he got the item he sent him

I might have missed it then. I'll try to take a look back sometime this afternoon if I can.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Actually thinking about it for ten minutes, and looking back again at Barkeep's posts, I'm going to go that way instead. I think Darth is a good vote, but I was absolutely sure when Danny came out that if Danny was bad, Barkeep was playing good wolf. It's the best hunch I've got now. Looking back through the day it seems to me he was trying to place himself as the guy who we say "Barkeep was really going after Danny, he can't be a wolf." Yet he was voting for Chubby, and even after saying he agreed with Chubby's story still didn't unvote him for three hours.

If Barkeep's a villager, I apologize, it sucks to do very villagery things like chase a wolf and cast a deciding vote on a wolf and get pilloried for it. But I've got a hunch on you.

unvote darth vilus
vote barkeep49

If anything, I found it a bit odd how much he was discussing where people stood with Danny. I thought he analyzed that a bit much. It was like he was contributing without actually contributing. I thought if Danny came up bad we should look at Barkeep. Anyways, for now:

Vote Barkeep49

By the way, I think Lathum is a poor vote based just off of the Chubby/Lathum thing. He passed him an item that can hurt a wolf which makes sense since he was suspicious of Chubby being a wolf. Also, assuming that the Fenrir Wolf is in the game and wolves can pass items between each other, then it would have made sense to pass that item between wolves that it can't hurt. That's a lot to assume so I don't really have a lot of faith in Lathum but I don't see why Lathum looks bad either.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not saying what but I did pass something to Chubby on night one as well.

here

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Didn't see this before I made my post in 958. I think my defense is that no wolf would have gone to the extent that I did.

I really hate when people say no wolf would ever do something. Of course some wolf would go to the extent you did just so you can say it when the pressure is put on you.

[jeheinz72]

With the caveat that I'm rusty, BK's once over of Danny seemed like normal thorough BK play.

Though yeah, save me the "A wolf wouldn't do it..."

[Lathum]

I am also in the camp of thinking BK is ok. I got a totally different read from him than wolf

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I suspect that there's rules about dead villagers going to Valhalla, but funny this is that it's day three and we don't have any dead vanilla villagers yet. JAG must be annoyed.

heh I was thinking that too Autumn. Very curious about that, but can't really say I want to die to find out either.

[Lathum]

I'm a vanilla villager and would be happy dying right about now.

[jeheinz72]

Why would you be happy to die? Like life-busy, over-it or...?

[Thomkal]

well this will come as no surprise as to whom I'm voting for. His play from yesterday makes little sense to me. If he had come forward and said yeah I sent Chubby the item because I thought he was a wolf and it might kill him, I could understand that.

But saying he sent the item because he thought Chubby might need protection from a wolf based on the comment he said about J23, which was said right at the deadline and Lathum actually sent it earlier than that. Plus by the end of the day he had voted to lynch Chubby, yet didn't change the order to send the item to him is completely puzzling to me.

Villager mistake or wolfy play? I think we need to find out for sure.

vote lathum

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Why would you be happy to die? Like life-busy, over-it or...?

because it will be far more fun to die and see Chubby proved wrong than anything else.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

well this will come as no surprise as to whom I'm voting for. His play from yesterday makes little sense to me. If he had come forward and said yeah I sent Chubby the item because I thought he was a wolf and it might kill him, I could understand that.

But saying he sent the item because he thought Chubby might need protection from a wolf based on the comment he said about J23, which was said right at the deadline and Lathum actually sent it earlier than that. Plus by the end of the day he had voted to lynch Chubby, yet didn't change the order to send the item to him is completely puzzling to me.

Villager mistake or wolfy play? I think we need to find out for sure.

vote lathum

Originally Posted by Lathum

As for the lynch vote, I had a conditional order to pass it to Danny is Chubby was lynched

ahem

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Not going to have time to do a vote thingy for day two. Not at the moment anyway.

I usually give trust to wolf day one voters for a bit this early in the game. But I think Danny knew by 21:00 or so that while he might not get lynched he was going to be getting heat/scanned so I wouldn't be surprised by wolves sticking their votes on him (particularly not on day two). On the other hand the wolves knew that they could potentially save him if they could get it to one vote soI don't think it's worth looking at Zinto, Racer or Heinz just yet.

NTN why did you vote Danny when he's such a strong villager?

Other than that, purely based on the voting record Chubby looks very bad. I actually feel Lathum switching from Eagle to Chubby at #309 looks like a village vote. Mau's flip-flop and the eventual result of it looks bad for him, but I don't think he does all that as a wolf with a wolf on the block - he can talk it through with his team-mates and decide how to act before posting.

I did not have any reason in my head really for voting Danny. I knew he said a lot and was using that as a reason for my vote really. Otherwise it was a play on my usual lack of posts. It was early day one.

[Autumn]

But I think the point is, Lathum, your reasoning for sending it sounds like it was invented after the fact. You say you thought he was a likely night kill target, if not a wolf, but based it on something that happened after you sent the item. Correct?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Racer

If anything, I found it a bit odd how much he was discussing where people stood with Danny. I thought he analyzed that a bit much. It was like he was contributing without actually contributing. I thought if Danny came up bad we should look at Barkeep. Anyways, for now:

Vote Barkeep49

By the way, I think Lathum is a poor vote based just off of the Chubby/Lathum thing. He passed him an item that can hurt a wolf which makes sense since he was suspicious of Chubby being a wolf. Also, assuming that the Fenrir Wolf is in the game and wolves can pass items between each other, then it would have made sense to pass that item between wolves that it can't hurt. That's a lot to assume so I don't really have a lot of faith in Lathum but I don't see why Lathum looks bad either.

Alright so you didn't like that, fair enough I guess. I know it struck Telle off as well. Frankly I think it's useful now that we know he's a wolf.

But how can you say I didn't contribute? I pushed hard for why I thought he was a wolf. People were willing to give him a pass and I wasn't and pushed hard in that direction. When Chubby came around and gave it a second push I found it a good thing. Chubby is getting a lot of deserved credit, but I think I deserve credit for laying groundwork for him.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well, I'm going to start off with NTN. He followed Danny's vote onto me and I believe Chubby said he thought he was a wolf.

Vote NTNdeacon

yea but though he helped us with Danny, Chubby doesn't know everything.

[Thomkal]

And I'm not saying I believe Chubby is necessairly good yet either. Lot of stuff we can't prove, and for those who haven't seen the item in question, we have no idea if it can hurt a wolf or not. J23 doesn't seem to have the same information on Chubby that Chubby does on him and it very well could be a more important wolf than Danny trying to look like he's firmly on the side of good. And the wolves know some of the roles that are not in the game-makes claiming Bragi/Idunn a very appealing thing for a wolf to do as this seems to have been where Chubby is hinting.

I voted for Danny at the end there because of the knowledge that came out later in the day from people like Autumn, it made me change my mind from my earlier stance on Danny and vote him out instead. If Chubby is a wolf, Autumn and J23 will surely be taken out next. Which would mean four wolves gone-a ballsy risk if they can keep people from investigating them more deeply, but not one I am willing to believe they would take at this point in the game.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Alright so you didn't like that, fair enough I guess. I know it struck Telle off as well. Frankly I think it's useful now that we know he's a wolf.

But how can you say I didn't contribute? I pushed hard for why I thought he was a wolf. People were willing to give him a pass and I wasn't and pushed hard in that direction. When Chubby came around and gave it a second push I found it a good thing. Chubby is getting a lot of deserved credit, but I think I deserve credit for laying groundwork for him.

I guess to me it seemed like all you were doing was figuring out where everyone's head at then making an actual push to lynch Danny. It's really hard to word what I felt you were doing perfectly, but it kind of felt like you were providing us stuff that didn't really have much substance to it (i.e. making it feel like you were contributing more then you actually were). That's the way it came across to me anyways.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

But I think the point is, Lathum, your reasoning for sending it sounds like it was invented after the fact. You say you thought he was a likely night kill target, if not a wolf, but based it on something that happened after you sent the item. Correct?

I'm not really sure what you are asking me. I've pretty much said all I can about me passing the item. I had to give it to someone, and giving it to Chubby covered the most logical scenerios.

If you want to lynch me for it then fine, I really don't care. Just lynch Chubby next.

[Thomkal]

That changes nothing Lathum. You clearly did not trust Chubby by the end of the day-I just can't see why anyone in that situation would send a wolf protecting item to a potential wolf that you wanted to lynch. The conditional order about Danny means nothing either especially now because he's been conveniently dead and exposed as a wolf.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

And I'm not saying I believe Chubby is necessairly good yet either. Lot of stuff we can't prove, and for those who haven't seen the item in question, we have no idea if it can hurt a wolf or not. J23 doesn't seem to have the same information on Chubby that Chubby does on him and it very well could be a more important wolf than Danny trying to look like he's firmly on the side of good. And the wolves know some of the roles that are not in the game-makes claiming Bragi/Idunn a very appealing thing for a wolf to do as this seems to have been where Chubby is hinting.

I voted for Danny at the end there not because of the knowledge that came out later in the day from people like Autumn, it made me change my mind from my earlier stance on Danny and vote him out instead. If Chubby is a wolf, Autumn and J23 will surely be taken out next. Which would mean four wolves gone-a ballsy risk if they can keep people from investigating them more deeply, but not one I am willing to believe they would take at this point in the game.

I don't get what you're saying in the 2nd paragraph. Which 4 wolves would be gone?

While I don't know for certain that Chubby isn't a wolf with a master plan, I find it highly, highly unlikely.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Racer

I guess to me it seemed like all you were doing was figuring out where everyone's head at then making an actual push to lynch Danny. It's really hard to word what I felt you were doing perfectly, but it kind of felt like you were providing us stuff that didn't really have much substance to it (i.e. making it feel like you were contributing more then you actually were). That's the way it came across to me anyways.

By the time I did that my push to lynch Danny had fizzled. Hence the reason I did that. Look at that list. Look at the voting record. There was little support for lynching Danny at that point. You all are saying it didn't provide substance while at the same time using the idea behind it to label me as the wolf who questions the reveal.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

And I'm not saying I believe Chubby is necessairly good yet either. Lot of stuff we can't prove, and for those who haven't seen the item in question, we have no idea if it can hurt a wolf or not. J23 doesn't seem to have the same information on Chubby that Chubby does on him and it very well could be a more important wolf than Danny trying to look like he's firmly on the side of good. And the wolves know some of the roles that are not in the game-makes claiming Bragi/Idunn a very appealing thing for a wolf to do as this seems to have been where Chubby is hinting.

I voted for Danny at the end there not because of the knowledge that came out later in the day from people like Autumn, it made me change my mind from my earlier stance on Danny and vote him out instead. If Chubby is a wolf, Autumn and J23 will surely be taken out next. Which would mean four wolves gone-a ballsy risk if they can keep people from investigating them more deeply, but not one I am willing to believe they would take at this point in the game.

Originally Posted by JAG

Roles:

Gleipnir (Fenrir Wolf's fetter) - Created from six impossible ingredients, this thin cord was able to do what its two mightier in appearance predecessors failed to do: keep the Fenrir Wolf bound until Ragnarok.

When I asked Chubby if this was the item he received yesterday, he said it was. I think it's pretty clear this can hurt one of the Fenrir Wolf if he is in the game though probably only him.

[ntndeacon]

I don't believe BK is a wolf so wont be voting there. I am still suspicious of Heinz and would go there except I won't be near the computer most of the day.. It is Godfather Day!. Planning on watching all 3 films today.

So lets choose the not BK and me vote out there...

Vote Lathum

[ntndeacon]

Chubby, a question.

If you believe(d) I am(was) a wolf, why did you pass the fetter to me as you claim?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Alright so you didn't like that, fair enough I guess. I know it struck Telle off as well. Frankly I think it's useful now that we know he's a wolf.

But how can you say I didn't contribute? I pushed hard for why I thought he was a wolf. People were willing to give him a pass and I wasn't and pushed hard in that direction. When Chubby came around and gave it a second push I found it a good thing. Chubby is getting a lot of deserved credit, but I think I deserve credit for laying groundwork for him.

I actually don't have a problem with you pushing so strongly in that direction-someone needed to look at it from this viewpoint. Time will tell if it was the action of a wolf or villager, but right now at least I'm not leaning towards voting for you.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

But how can you say I didn't contribute? I pushed hard for why I thought he was a wolf. People were willing to give him a pass and I wasn't and pushed hard in that direction. When Chubby came around and gave it a second push I found it a good thing. Chubby is getting a lot of deserved credit, but I think I deserve credit for laying groundwork for him.

You gave him as much as a pass as anybody. You did not vote him, you voted Chubby, and only switched to Danny late in the day. So while you pushed hard verbally, trying to paint the village as if we were giving Danny a free pass, you didn't actually push him with a vote until what, six other people had? As I said, I think you talked a bold game but didn't vote one, which is what I would expect a wolf to do there.

I voted with Chubby because he came out with new information proving that Danny was not Thor. That was the real groundwork for the vote.

[ntndeacon]

with that point... good hunting y'all . and remember to take it to the mattresses!

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

By the time I did that my push to lynch Danny had fizzled. Hence the reason I did that. Look at that list. Look at the voting record. There was little support for lynching Danny at that point. You all are saying it didn't provide substance while at the same time using the idea behind it to label me as the wolf who questions the reveal.

Shrug. I see you voted Danny pre-reveal which helps your cause a bit, but the Danny reveal thing easily could have been planned in advance. I could be totally off base sensing that there is a better then average chance that you're a wolf but that's where I'm at.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not really sure what you are asking me. I've pretty much said all I can about me passing the item. I had to give it to someone, and giving it to Chubby covered the most logical scenerios.

If you want to lynch me for it then fine, I really don't care. Just lynch Chubby next.

My question is: Why did you think Chubby a likely night kill?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by J23

I don't get what you're saying in the 2nd paragraph. Which 4 wolves would be gone?

While I don't know for certain that Chubby isn't a wolf with a master plan, I find it highly, highly unlikely.

The 4 wolves I meant here were Danny, Chubby, Autumn, and you. And right now I don't feel that way either, but we can't prove he's not either, so just trying to keep that in mind in watching his actions from now on.

[Autumn]

I'm heading out to the circus! I won't be back on until evening perhaps. Should be an interesting day.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Racer

When I asked Chubby if this was the item he received yesterday, he said it was. I think it's pretty clear this can hurt one of the Fenrir Wolf if he is in the game though probably only him.

I get that Racer, but we dont know what bound means do we? Bound doesn't sound to me like it kills Fenris Wolf only delays some action he might be able to take in the future. That's still a good thing of course. Some people yesterday were talking like it could hurt any wolf, which I certainly don't think it can do based on the Mod info about it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You gave him as much as a pass as anybody. You did not vote him, you voted Chubby, and only switched to Danny late in the day. So while you pushed hard verbally, trying to paint the village as if we were giving Danny a free pass, you didn't actually push him with a vote until what, six other people had? As I said, I think you talked a bold game but didn't vote one, which is what I would expect a wolf to do there.

I voted with Chubby because he came out with new information proving that Danny was not Thor. That was the real groundwork for the vote.

I DID vote Danny for a long time. When I unvoted Danny I was the only vote on him. Who was the next person to vote for Danny? Chubby. Not to mention I unvoted Chubby BEFORE his reveal.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Lathum

EF. Are you claiming you passed the same item I did to chubby?

Chubby, did you get more than one item passed to you?

I dont know if a player would know that there were two items passed to them. It's random on which one ends up with the player, unless one item is specific to that character, in which case that item ends up there

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You gave him as much as a pass as anybody. You did not vote him, you voted Chubby, and only switched to Danny late in the day. So while you pushed hard verbally, trying to paint the village as if we were giving Danny a free pass, you didn't actually push him with a vote until what, six other people had? As I said, I think you talked a bold game but didn't vote one, which is what I would expect a wolf to do there.

Seriously? I know it sucks that Barkeep came up with the "would I go to that much effort if I was a wolf" but, well, would he go to that much trouble if he was a wolf? What's the simplest solution? He thought there was a villager who thought very good chance that Danny was a wolf and was making a lot of effort to prove it or he was a wolf trying to get trust by proving Danny was likely a wolf.