Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[LoneStarGirl]

Agreed, Lathum

[st.cronin]

As far as Blade's allegiances - hoopsguy had said at one point that he had Blade aligned with somebody, but I'll be damned if I can figure out who he was talking about.

[st.cronin]

LSG's defense at this point is that she was the first vote to execute Qwik. Has anybody actually vouched for her?

[LoneStarGirl]

How are you people alligning these folks? I know 2 people in my team but for the life of me i can't figure out the rest of y'all. You must be analyzing all the posts instead of skimming like i usually do.

[LoneStarGirl]

If I was an assasin would I vote to kill another assasin? Especially if there are only 3 or 4 assasins out there? That just doesn't seem logical.

[Abe Sargent]

Honestly, LSG, I agree. I'm not willing to turn my life into a cryptographer in WW, so I don't know any outside of my own.

[WVUFAN]

So ... just because I've been inactive that means I can't vote? Not matter who I vote to jail or execute someone will say the same thing.

My vote to execute LoneStarGirl is based on some of the comments made here today, plus guesswork. If I read someone else's post, I may very well change that vote.

My vote for Lathum is pretty much a placeholder until I can come up with a rational decision and change it. Neither are set in stone, and I don't have concrete reasons for either.

[BrianD]

I've got a few connections, but not nearly enough. I'm still trying to figure out how extra points can be assigned to have all of the accounted for, but right now there are just too many options.

I think SnDvls has hinted that he knew LSG was good. It would be nice if he came out a little more strongly in that. Considering she grabbed 3 points for a first vote on Qwik, I have to believe she isn't an assassin. Am I wrong in that logic?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

First, the Assassins would have had to guess right on the fast-talker on night 1. Slightly better than 5% chance.

That assumes there's only one. I think, given the rules and quantity of players in the game, there's almost certainly at least two.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

If I was an assasin would I vote to kill another assasin? Especially if there are only 3 or 4 assasins out there? That just doesn't seem logical.

It sure does. It guarantees that you're safe for at least two rounds. Sacrificing a wolf for the rest of the pack is a regular move in WW games.

[Abe Sargent]

Okay folks, we may have a problem, and I've pm'd Barkeep. Today I recieved a pm from Barkeep that also included two additional people as receipants of the same pm. I interpret that as meaning that those two people, who received this message, are just as good as I.

Was I meant to know the identity of these two people or did our GM screw up? I don't know, but I have sent a pm clarifying, and I wanted to let you folks know what was going on behind the scenes.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I think SnDvls has hinted that he knew LSG was good. It would be nice if he came out a little more strongly in that.

Just like you did for bulletsponge, eh?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Considering she grabbed 3 points for a first vote on Qwik, I have to believe she isn't an assassin. Am I wrong in that logic?

While it's not ironclad -- I'd guess, without actually trying to make it work, that the points can still work out for her to be an assassin -- I think that's a reasonable inference. I mean, I know they're trying to build trust, but throwing points away really hurts their chances at winning via a revolt.

All of which is predicated on qwikshot being an assassin. We have to remember that this is not absolutely a given.

Also, we're hurting ourselves information-wise with our lack of executions.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Dola, plus we now know where some of the other points are lying. Every noble that voted for Blade got +0.5 for voting for a rival faction leader.

I missed this post before, but I included the +0.5 additions in my point recap. The only things I know I missed were assigning an extra -0.5 to Bullet and an extra +0.5 to Qwik for not voting the night they were in jail. I forgot that they couldn't vote. I also didn't add the +0.5 to me for voting to free one of my faction members.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

That assumes there's only one. I think, given the rules and quantity of players in the game, there's almost certainly at least two.

You are correct. Stupid probability, I always give the answer before I think through all of the possibilities.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

It sure does. It guarantees that you're safe for at least two rounds. Sacrificing a wolf for the rest of the pack is a regular move in WW games.

It's a normal move, sure, but when it costs you that many points in a new game? No, I just don't think that's probable.

Vote Free LSG


-Anxiety

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

If I was an assasin would I vote to kill another assasin? Especially if there are only 3 or 4 assasins out there? That just doesn't seem logical.

lsg, it would actually be a sensible play considering you were the first to cast the lyncg vote, there was a good chance the execution was coming considering the lack of information so it would be a wise play for an assasin to cast the first vote to try and hide behind it considering qwik was probably a lost cause for the assasins.

That being said I'm not sold on you being an assasin which is why I just voted to keep you in jail.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

While it's not ironclad -- I'd guess, without actually trying to make it work, that the points can still work out for her to be an assassin -- I think that's a reasonable inference. I mean, I know they're trying to build trust, but throwing points away really hurts their chances at winning via a revolt.

All of which is predicated on qwikshot being an assassin. We have to remember that this is not absolutely a given.

Also, we're hurting ourselves information-wise with our lack of executions.

It is also possible that the assassins have given up on the option for a Revolt and will go for the win via 1:1 ratio. It would seem unwise to give up options like that, but it is possible.

I agree that we are hurting ourselves information-wise with our lack of executions, but we also want to be careful of giving too many points to the assassins.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If anyone can pull in a later post by hoopsguy with an expanded "trust" list, I'd appreciate it.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm somewhat concerned about disappearing overnight and I really don't want to risk dying while holding onto a bunch of potential information.

Here are people that I'm fairly confident are not assassins that are not in my faction:

BrianD, Blade, Cronin, Blade, MrW, Bulletsponge, Fouts, Dodgerchick (or, hopefully not, her replacement)

There are varying levels of confidence here among these players. I'm not going to distinguish them tonight, but may tomorrow depending on how actions proceed.

That list, plus me, represents 9 of the 19 players in the game. This list, coupled with my personal trust list, means that I will be looking at a fairly small group of players heading into tomorrow.

My next "jail" vote will be going to someone not on this list.

[BrianD]

Unvote Free LoneStarGirl
Vote No Execution

Unless someone really does stand up, it shouldn't hurt to keep her in jail. We can just keep adding to the jailed members.

[Abe Sargent]

Okay, having received a pm from our esteemed GM, here is what I would personally like to say to the other two who were, like myself, included on last night's pm:

I am perosnally not to inlcude you on any of my trust lists publicly, nor am I going to name you. I'd recommend that you do the same. Obviously, however, you are trusted by me now, I just don't want to make your names public for now. If I need to clear one of you later then I will, but for now, I'll remain silent on the issue.

[BrianD]

dola, oops

Unvote Free LoneStarGirl
Vote No Execution

[Barkeep49]

The issue with Anxiety was a mistake, but last night as a strange night and so Anxiety, or any others, should read nothing into the mistake, as doing so could cause serious errors to be made. In other words, the information is jumbled enough as to be meaningless.

There have been a few questions but let me answer the most important one:
The double vote does NOT effect points.

In fact the double vote counts ONLY, if necessary.

So, for instance, in a vote of 8-1 no leader's double vote would matter. However, in a situation where it was 5-4, if there were no leaders in the 5, and one in the four, then it would be a 5-5 tie and the tie breaker rule, which is not publicly known, except I will say that it is not random, kicks in. If, for any reason, the Noble Leader's double vote kicks in, it would be reflected in the final tally (so five people voted but they are given credit for six votes).

Hope that answers the question.

Also, let me talk about the weekend.

I figure we'll do our normal lynch tonight. I have thought of a few different scenarios, but have decided to go with the following schedule
Night 4 Deadline: Sunday morning 8 AM Eastern. Results to go up Sunday morning.

Day 5 Deadline: 9:30 PM Eastern Monday.

The reason being that Sunday night, and Monday until sundown, is Yom Kippur, the most important and serious holiday in the Jewish religion. While I am not Orthodox, I am observant and after thinking it over running a WW game simply is incongruent with the spirit and sanctity of the day.

If anyone has any questions I haven't answered I'm basically around for a bit.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Do you have any ideas on the double-votes having an effect on "lynching" votes? Do you see any big point totals added or missing from any of your guys?

My faction seems to have the correct totals

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think the only realistic way LSG casts the first vote for qwikshot as an assassin is if he's been framed. Since that possibility has not been eliminated, I'd prefer to hold her in jail until we get another point total.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Okay, having received a pm from our esteemed GM, here is what I would personally like to say to the other two who were, like myself, included on last night's pm:

I am perosnally not to inlcude you on any of my trust lists publicly, nor am I going to name you. I'd recommend that you do the same. Obviously, however, you are trusted by me now, I just don't want to make your names public for now. If I need to clear one of you later then I will, but for now, I'll remain silent on the issue.

And I will say again such a statement could very well be the height of foolishness.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

If anyone can pull in a later post by hoopsguy with an expanded "trust" list, I'd appreciate it.



My next "jail" vote will be going to someone not on this list.

Not quite what you asked for, but I'll give you my least-trusted list. This is based on voting pattern as well as lack of votes.

ntndeacon, st.cronin, Lathum, ChiefRum, Dodger, WVU....maybe Grey

Dodger and WVU are on the list due to lack of votes. I really don't have a reason to distrust them, I just don't have a feel. We'll see what happens from here forward. ChiefRum, Lathum, and st.cronin each had one vote that I would consider "right". This includes freeing Bullet (which I suppose only my faction knows for sure is right), jailing Qwik and executing Qwik. Ntndeacon has no "right" votes yet....that we know of. Grey also only had one "right" vote, but it was a "lynching" vote to jail Qwik. That may have been an unfortunate coincidence. He didn't vote at all yesterday.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Day 5 Deadline: 9:30 PM Eastern Monday.

The reason being that Sunday night, and Monday until sundown, is Yom Kippur, the most important and serious holiday in the Jewish religion. While I am not Orthodox, I am observant and after thinking it over running a WW game simply is incongruent with the spirit and sanctity of the day.

If anyone has any questions I haven't answered I'm basically around for a bit.

No problems with the deadlines at all.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

LSG's defense at this point is that she was the first vote to execute Qwik. Has anybody actually vouched for her?

yes I did

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

yes I did

There, that is sufficiently un-subtle.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

No problems with the deadlines at all.

Thanks. The question part though was seperate from the deadline, as I figured people wouldn' t have a problem with that . There were just several questions and I wasn't sure I had answered them all.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

yes I did

Thanks for saying this. I wish people would be more clear when they are vouching for someone.

VOTE FREE LONESTARGIRL

Also, I am encouraged that she is posting more now, which is one of the primary reasons I voted for her yesterday.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

yes I did

LSG, are you willing to be tied to SnDvls?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Alignments in voting yesterday:
* For LSG: Chief Rum, st.cronin, hoopsguy, BrianD, myself
* For kingfc22: Lathum, RealDeal, SnDvls
* For grey: Anxiety, ntndeacon, Fouts, LSG, kingfc22
* Otherwise: Blade for st.cronin

We know that Blade would have cast a double-weight vote had it been on any of the principals, which is presumably why he sluffed it onto st.cronin. Since, according to Barkeep, the total came out tied, at 5 - 5, there were either no leaders involved on either side, OR one leader on each (and I think both would be consistent with that total, but could be mistaken, it depends on how we interpret the invokation of the double vote).

I still have not been able to reconcile the total for my faction but I only have incomplete confidence in one other member (no confidence at all in the final member), there are potential "buried" points based on the unknown status of Lathum, kingfc22, and Fouts (among people I considered realistic candidates). It's within the realm of possibility that there is a traitor in my ranks (which makes me nervous about st.cronin).

Putting all of this together, I am going to cast a jail vote now.
VOTE JAIL ntndeacon

[Mr. Wednesday]

Barkeep, the deadlines look good (especially since I'm going to be largely unavailable on Saturday due to the game against Purdue).

[Mr. Wednesday]

By "For", I mean "vote cast to jail". That's confusing, because it's also, in another sense, against the person named.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I agree with this. Blade seems suspicious to me, somewhat more so than usual.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

uh, never mind

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I still have not been able to reconcile the total for my faction but I only have incomplete confidence in one other member (no confidence at all in the final member), there are potential "buried" points based on the unknown status of Lathum, kingfc22, and Fouts (among people I considered realistic candidates). It's within the realm of possibility that there is a traitor in my ranks (which makes me nervous about st.cronin).

Does that mean st.cronin is in your ranks?

[Chief Rum]

Basing this off of hoops' suspicions, because hoops was good.

Clear for now: BrianD, Blade, Cronin, MrW, Bulletsponge, Fouts, Dodgerchick

I am clearing myself, of course, and the members of my faction.

I have reasonable trust in LSG, Anxiety, SnDvls, Lathum

Scanning who remains, my prime suspects, then, are...

ntn...has been a bit UTR in this one, and I haven't been able to link him to anyone

king...has been completely quiet, and is probably my #1 suspect

grey...also way too quiet. st cronin said yesterday he didn't want him jailed, so I am hoping cronin will give more details about that.

WVUFan...distracted by forum politics? Or hiding behind them?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Does that mean st.cronin is in your ranks?

Note that I have been linked, publicly, with him previously. He is the "incomplete confidence" person -- as of day 1 and discussion on day 2, I think it is more probable than not that we are compatriots.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Incidentally, going back to my list of votes from yesterday, I think there's a reasonable possibility that the assassins split their jail votes.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Note that I have been linked, publicly, with him previously. He is the "incomplete confidence" person -- as of day 1 and discussion on day 2, I think it is more probable than not that we are compatriots.

Ok, I had you two linked, but I didn't remember if that was also public opinion.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Thanks for saying this. I wish people would be more clear when they are vouching for someone.

VOTE FREE LONESTARGIRL

Also, I am encouraged that she is posting more now, which is one of the primary reasons I voted for her yesterday.

my original post on it

Originally Posted by SnDvls

probally just an oversight on his part as it's a pretty complex game.

I will say this lonestar is good

vote free lonestar

don't know how much clearer I could have been

[ntndeacon]

Ok I am confused. In one of Blade's posts he mentioned that his faction leader told him to free Qwik and vote for Grey. Did he get such a post from somewhere (obviously not a faction leader as he was one) or was it a way to get us to act on his suspicions.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

my original post on it





don't know how much clearer I could have been

Well, at least two people (myself, Brian) didn't find it all that forthcoming.

[BrianD]

As more information comes out...

Unvote No Execution
Vote Free LoneStarGirl
Unvote Jail ntndeacon
Vote Jail WVUFan

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Ok I am confused. In one of Blade's posts he mentioned that his faction leader told him to free Qwik and vote for Grey. Did he get such a post from somewhere (obviously not a faction leader as he was one) or was it a way to get us to act on his suspicions.

I think it was a way for him to get his faction to follow him, but judging by the results that didn't happen.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, at least two people (myself, Brian) didn't find it all that forthcoming.

it's cool and all good. Just thought is was pretty clear. I'll make it it's own post next time

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Ok I am confused. In one of Blade's posts he mentioned that his faction leader told him to free Qwik and vote for Grey. Did he get such a post from somewhere (obviously not a faction leader as he was one) or was it a way to get us to act on his suspicions.

That is a very good question. I'm not sure where that suggestion came from.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

it's cool and all good. Just thought is was pretty clear. I'll make it it's own post next time

It really was pretty clear. I had the same reaction to my reveal yesterday. I guess paranoia is so high in this game that everything needs to be spelled out so that there is no wiggle-room.