Help me pick the SB winner

[jbergey22]

So far so good!

[Marmel]

Stressful!!!!

[Marmel]

Win or lose, Favre is a fucking asshole choke artist.

[B & B]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Win or lose, Favre is a fucking asshole choke artist.

You should have chosen New Orl, but I digress.


Would say I told you so, but I lost a grand on No - 4. Ugh.

[Marmel]

bumping this for some opinions on this season...

I am currently tied for 2nd out of 27 entries and I hold all tiebreakers. So I have a good chance to get the 2nd pick, or at worst, 4th pick. I am sure the Pats will go #1 overall, so who do I pick next? My thought, particularly if I pick 2nd or 3rd, is to take an NFC team.

My order as of right now:
1) Pats
2) Eagles
3) Falcons
4) Saints

I am not sold on any of 2-4. Maybe if the Eagles secure the #2 seed, then that is the way to go, but if they have to play an extra game and possibly 2 road games....I just don't know. Atlanta with homefield is a good pick, but last night gave me major doubts. Saints - who knows? Bears - they can't get to the SB can they??

[Mustang]

When do you need to pick? After this weeks games, but before the playoffs?

I would feel comfortable taking the Eagles #2. Although (other than the NFC West), I could make an argument for any NFC team to go to the Super Bowl. #3 Would be the Saints. I'd put the winner of this weeks Packer/Bears game at #4

[Radii]

I'm going to bow to Quik's logic from last year and suggest that you take one of the NFC teams getting a bye. Assuming Atlanta can handle the mighty Panthers to earn home field, I'd pick Atlanta.

[QuikSand]

My first thought here is that the Pats are the #1, and then your top-seeded NFC team other than Atlanta is the #2 overall seed.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

My first thought here is that the Pats are the #1, and then your top-seeded NFC team other than Atlanta is the #2 overall seed.

I don't have to pick until after the regular season is over.

Why other than Atlanta? If Atlanta is #1 and the Bears #2, you would take the Bears?

[Passacaglia]

This thread is awesome.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Marmel

I don't have to pick until after the regular season is over.

Why other than Atlanta? If Atlanta is #1 and the Bears #2, you would take the Bears?

I'm not sure, I think I distrust the Bears nearly as much as I distrust Atlanta... I just get a bad vibe from the Falcons, nothing structural about it. Yes, that flies in the face of my usual "just play the brackets" rule, but given your situation, you ought to be picking from among the bye week teams who have the built-in advantage. So, if the seedings happen to work out as ATL-CHI-PHI in that order, I think I'd probably choke down a pick of Chicago, specifically because the SB loser has a pretty substantial payout here.

[Marmel]

I follow you, and I have the same feelings about Atlanta as you do, but I just don't trust the Bears either.

I agree that I am just going for Suberbowl loser here. In fact, the payouts are about 25% higher this year due to the number of participants going from 20 to 27.

Current Standings:
Player 1: 157
Marmel & Player 2 & Player 3: 153 (tie-breaker: Marmel)
Player 4: 151

Anyway, I've already cashed in nicely. A $170 buy in for the year and I won 3 weeks at $189 each time (which is the tie-breaker).

[QuikSand]

The more I think about it, the more I think I'd go with Atlanta if they were the #1.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The more I think about it, the more I think I'd go with Atlanta if they were the #1.

Nice flip-flop!

With the Eagles flop this week, I hope the Bears come out and play to win against Green Bay. If they can win that game, I might have more confidence in them. Then again, Matt Ryan only lost twice in his career at home.....

The picture is still not any clearer....

[jbergey22]

1. Saints
2. Eagles
3. Packers
4. Falcons
5. Bears
6. Rams

1. Patriots
2. Steelers
3. Ravens
4. Jets
5. Colts
6. Chiefs

[FBPro]

Pats
Falcons
Steelers
Eagles
Colts

[QuikSand]

I'm wondering if you can make a fair case for selecting Pittsburgh as the #2 overall, assuming they land the #2 seed in the AFC. I think not, due to the ratio of SBW/SBL payoff involved (i.e. just getting to the SB is the biggest prize) but given my (and general) lack of enthusiasm for the two bye teams in the NFC I suppose that's in play as well.

Surprisingly tough setup.

[Marmel]

Well it looks like 2nd place is a clinch at this point. Any arguments against Atlanta?

[QuikSand]

None here, I guess. Don't like it, but I reckon that's the smart play.

[Marmel]

I really don't see Atlanta making the SB, but I have no idea who is going to beat them in their Dome, so I guess I just take the top seed, be happy with my winnings already, and anything else is gravy.

[B & B]

Agree with Marmel.

Id take the Bears or Steelers.

[B & B]

Maybe its best to pick 3rd, 4th, or even 5th?


Not one but two #6 seeds in championship games and one of them is a FG favorite.

[Marmel]

Probably not, but in 3 seasons of this, the best finish to win the pool was the 3rd place pick.

I'm out again, but made about $500 profit for the season, which was even better than last year.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Marmel

My order as of right now:
1) Pats
2) Eagles
3) Falcons
4) Saints

Close.

[sterlingice]

Not everyone has an NHL-only time machine

SI

[fantom1979]

Not any worse then all of those people that took Brees in their playoff fantasy football leagues.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Close.

Well, that was before the end of the regular season. My order after week 17 was:

1) Pats
2) Falcons
3) Chicago
4) Pitt

[Marmel]

Year three coming to a close and I am struggling. I currently sit in 9th place and I only won 1 week (Week 1, so it has been a lonnnng season!)

With 2 high picks the last few years, I still have not picked a SB team. Maybe I can swing it with a pick somewhere in the 7-10 range?

Eliminating the early picks:
1) GB
2) NE
3) Baltimore
4) Pitt
5) Saints
6) San Fran

That leaves:
Houston
Detroit
Atlanta
Giants/Dallas
Denver/Oakland
Jets/Cincy/Tennessee

Can we make the argument that any of these teams can reach the Suberbowl? Or should I just take my favorite team, the Giants (if they win Sunday), and pray they can repeat the 07-08 season?

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'm wondering if you can make a fair case for selecting Pittsburgh as the #2 overall, assuming they land the #2 seed in the AFC. I think not, due to the ratio of SBW/SBL payoff involved (i.e. just getting to the SB is the biggest prize) but given my (and general) lack of enthusiasm for the two bye teams in the NFC I suppose that's in play as well.

Surprisingly tough setup.

Billiant! (Last year's analysis)

[Marmel]

Nobody was talking about GB last year, even though I think we all agreed that Atlanta and the Bears were underwhelming choices. Who is this year's GB?

[TRO]

I think pretty even cases could be made for Atlanta, Detroit, Dallas and NY Giants. So take your boys (if they make it).

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Marmel

That leaves:
Houston
Detroit
Atlanta
Giants/Dallas
Denver/Oakland
Jets/Cincy/Tennessee

Can we make the argument that any of these teams can reach the Suberbowl? Or should I just take my favorite team, the Giants (if they win Sunday), and pray they can repeat the 07-08 season?

Houston is the best team out of that bunch but if you are looking for a possible "this years Green Bay" Id say Detroit is closest to that.

Atlanta has a lot of promise it just seems they are missing something.

[Rizon]

I suck in this thread.

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by Rizon

I suck in this thread.

...

[PurdueBrad]

Hey Marmel-

Based on the potential of the defensive line to dominate a game and the offense to keep up in a shootout, I would probably take Detroit out of the choices you have. I think of all those teams you have left that they are most likely to make a run.

[Matthean]

I would go Giants, Atlanta, and Detroit, but not in order. Giants seem decent with potential from Eli to keep them close with anybody. I think they have too much moxie to simply go away. Atlanta is good, but I just don't see them beating GB or NO at all. Detroit is the highly volatile pick. I'm not sure they can beat the big boys either and they are a horrible match up for some of the other teams who have physical running games, but...if it all clicks, a big name team is going home early. I think they have it in them. They need for it to happen so they can prove it.

Houston would be any easy pick if they weren't on a two game losing streak against Indy and Carolina and starting Yates at QB.

[B & B]

Of the remaining choices, Id go with Atlanta.

They would have to win @ NO (most likely) then @ GB, but at that point the NFC Champ and SB would be downhill. Still, not a lot to like from those teams on the board.

[Marmel]

Good thoughts so far. I had Atlanta last year and, well....I think I'll pass on them this year. I was thinking Detroit and Giants. Maybe take a flyer on Houston? They were playing as well as anybody before the last couple of weeks. Didn't they lose their DC due to medical issues? Is he coming back?

I'll update after Sunday as my pick rolls around and I'll see what I have left to choose from.

[Butter]

WOOOOO, BENGALS!!!!!!

Seriously though, I would say Detroit.

[SackAttack]

I think Detroit is fairly boom/bust there. If Suh stays under control, I think they're the only team of that group with a chance to go deep. If opponent(s) get under Suh's skin, Detroit's in trouble.

[Passacaglia]

Giants could be a good pick, since they've been there before, and won't have any kind of playoff freakout.

[Senator]

ugh, why not? RIP STRAM

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.

[Marmel]

Bump for this year.

Bad regular season, I am 10th.

After the first 6 picks, these are the teams left to pick from:

Houston
Indy
Cincy
Baltimore
Washington
Minnesota

How would you order these teams to make the Superbowl (winning is just a bonus payout)??

My initial thoughts:

Houston
Baltimore
Washington
Minnesota
Cincy
Indy

[gstelmack]

Washington
Baltimore
Houston
Cincy
Indy
Minnesota

[albionmoonlight]

I'd rank them like this:

Baltimore
Houston
Cincy
Minnesota
Washington
Indy

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Washington
Baltimore
Houston
Cincy
Indy
Minnesota

We are on the same page as far as the 3 teams with guaranteed home games being better picks. Why do you like Washington better than Hous/Balt?

[albionmoonlight]

Dola. I Mis-read the initial question. Thought that we were picking to win. In order to make the SB, I would say

Baltimore
Minnesota
Washington
Houston
Cincy
Indy

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Dola. I Mis-read the initial question. Thought that we were picking to win. In order to make the SB, I would say

Baltimore
Minnesota
Washington
Houston
Cincy
Indy

Yeah, I'm only after the payout for my team making the SB. I like the AFC teams because (1) Manning is known to bow out early in the playoffs more often than not and (2) that only leaves the Pats as a scary team in the AFC. In the NFC I see SF, GB and (maybe) Atlanta as scary matchups. So, I feel a lower seed has a better shot in the AFC...

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Yeah, I'm only after the payout for my team making the SB. I like the AFC teams because (1) Manning is known to bow out early in the playoffs more often than not and (2) that only leaves the Pats as a scary team in the AFC. In the NFC I see SF, GB and (maybe) Atlanta as scary matchups. So, I feel a lower seed has a better shot in the AFC...

I see Denver and NE as juggernauts. The NFC I see as much more wide open. Just don't quite trust Atlanta or SF. GB would actually be my pick to come out of the NFC, but it isn't like I have a lot of confidence in that pick.

[stevew]

I'm all in on Washington this year. They run the ball good enough to control the clock. They don't turn it over. To get tp the NFC finals they at least get Seattle in Washington, then get to go to ATL in round two.