February Console Sales Numbers

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Take Two executives buy nearly 10,000 shares of stock in effort to halt EA's hostile takeover bid............

The sports gaming community should take it upon themselves to buy up shares as well.

[MJ4H]

Bah I play the hell out of my DS and I very rarely play it in public.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I just can't see Guitar Hero on a handheld. It'd be hard to see what buttons to push. And the sound would suck.

Granted, it won't be an optimal sound quality, but Elite Beat Agents is a music driven game and the sound on that game isn't terrible by any means.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Granted, it won't be an optimal sound quality, but Elite Beat Agents is a music driven game and the sound on that game isn't terrible by any means.

More like it's the best game ever.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Pachter suggests GameStop will lose business to general retailers. Also, PS3 and Wii sales are expected to dramatically increase in 2008, while Xbox 360, DS, PSP and PS2 sales should see a decline over the previous year numbers.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=17952

March 20, 2008

Pachter: GameStop To Lose Ground To Target, Wal-Mart?

Despite officials from major U.S. video games retailer GameStop reporting record sales of $7.1 billion in the company’s fourth quarter, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has stated that the company is likely to lose ground in future to retailers such as Wal-Mart and Target.

Though Pachter admits that the company had “broad strength” in both software and hardware sales, and gained market share during the fourth quarter, he is “somewhat surprised” by GameStop’s revenue guidance. “The company suggests it can grow its software sales by 24-29 percent -- implying a 9% contribution from new stores -- and grow its hardware sales by about 9-10 percent entirely from new stores,” said Pachter.

“In the context of last year’s 39% software sales growth and 55% hardware sales growth, these targets appear modest,” Pachter noted, but felt that with GameStop’s suppliers (publishers Activision, Electronic Arts, Ubisoft and THQ) expecting software sales growth of only 10 – 12% for the year, and most industry observers (Pachter included) expecting hardware dollar sales to be flat for the year they were unlikely.

Pachter referred to “GameStop management’s apparent memory lapse about its performance in holiday 2002,” in which the company “consistently” guided to growth but before the end of the year preannounced a shortfall, attributed to a shift in hardware market share from it and peer specialty retailer Electronics Boutique (since merged into GameStop) in favor of the mass merchants on the anniversary of the Xbox and GameCube launches."

“It appears that once hardware supply was sufficient to satisfy demand, gift givers tended to purchase hardware when it was convenient, causing a market share shift from destination specialty retailers in favor of more frequently visited mass merchants,” said Pachter.

“We expect a repeat of the 2002 phenomenon in 2008,” Pachter continued. “We expect hardware sales to be flat to slightly negative for the industry in 2008, with dramatic increases in Wii and PS3 dollar sales offset in full by dollar sales declines for the PS2, PSP, DS and Xbox 360. We expect overall Wii and PS3 dollar sales to grow by approximately $400 million per console in the U.S., but expect the other consoles to decline by around the same amount. At the same time, we expect the Wii supply situation to increase by 150,000 per month, on average, with allocations of hardware favoring the mass merchants once supply and demand are in balance. We expect the first glimpse of this allocation shift to occur on May 19, when Nintendo launches Wii Fit.”

“This device is not aimed at hardcore gamers, but is instead intended for more casual (and out-of-shape) consumers,” said Pachter. “We have learned that Nintendo of America intends to support the Wii Fit launch with the biggest marketing campaign in its history, and believe it is unlikely that such a large marketing campaign is intended to disproportionately benefit GameStop. Rather, we think that the Nintendo campaign is likely to feature key retail partners such as Target and Best Buy, notorious for attracting so-called ‘couch potatoes’.”

Further expanding on his point, Pachter noted that merchants such as Best Buy and Costco are expected to drive same store sales growth in 2008 by selling a large number of HDTVs, and he anticipates that many retailers will cross-sell PS3s as Blu-ray players to HDTV purchasers.

“GameStop’s belief that it can grow its hardware sales in this competitive environment sounds overly optimistic to us,” but Pachter did concede, “Notwithstanding the publisher estimates for software sales growth, we believe that the industry is likely to grow by 20% in 2008. This makes us comfortable that GameStop can grow its overall software sales at the high end of the 24 – 29% rate implied by its guidance.”

“Similarly, we agree that growth of the company’s used game business is highly correlated to new software growth (after all, each used game begins its existence as a new game), and we anticipate used game sales will grow by 29%,” Pachter continued, but still questioned GameStop’s hardware sales growth confidence. “We have modeled a 1% decline in hardware sales for the year.”

These estimates lead us to the conclusion that GameStop can grow its earnings substantially in FY:08, and our $2.37 estimate is slightly above the high end of company guidance. In FY:09, we expect comps to moderate to 3%, but again expect the mix shift in favor of higher margin software to allow the company to grow EPS to $3.08.

Concluding, Pachter broached the question as to why Wedbush Morgan have a “hold” rating on GameStop, a company expected to grow earnings by approximately 30% for each of the next two years.

“The answer is quite simple: we expect the mix to shift in favor from higher margin software to moderate and as a result more modest earnings growth. We think it is reasonable to expect that overly exuberant investors may drive GameStop shares well above our target price, as growth is difficult to come by, but we think it is prudent to recognize that GameStop’s run as a secular growth story will likely come to a halt over the next two to three years.”

[Eaglesfan27]

The US International Trade Commission is investigating Sony and other companies for Patent Infringement in over 30 products including Blu Ray Players/PS3's. Gertrude Neumark Rothschild who claims to have patents on the specific type of diodes currently used in these products has called for an immediate cease of production and sale of all said products:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6188182...stnews;title;1

[Big Fo]

Well at least Sony had a good run.

This month's EGM rumor section has Insomniac making another Ratchet game for PSN, the Tecmo Bowl remake mentioned ages ago is still going with "with a classic version coming to the DS and a revamped, modern remake headed to the Wii." Also, Warren Spector's (of Wing Commanger, Ultima, and Deus Ex fame) next game will be a platformer starring Mickey Mouse, they don't know what console(s) for though yet.

hxxp://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3167052

I wonder if Tecmo might try using the IR pointer for passing, that'd be sweet.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

The US International Trade Commission is investigating Sony and other companies for Patent Infringement in over 30 products including Blu Ray Players/PS3's. Gertrude Neumark Rothschild who claims to have patents on the specific type of diodes currently used in these products has called for an immediate cease of production and sale of all said products:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6188182...stnews;title;1

Another situation with very little to stand on. At best, Sony won't have to pay a dime. At worst, they'll settle for several million with the company. They won't cease production at any point.

This kind of stuff happens on a regular basis to Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony. This shouldn't be shocking to anyone.

[MikeVic]

http://wii.ign.com/articles/861/861448p1.html

Rock Band on Wii, June 22nd. "The game will feature 63 songs including five bonus songs for Wii gamers to enjoy."

Doesn't mention DLC though.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

It appears that Ubisoft goofed up the PS3 online component of Rainbox Six Vegas 2.......

http://loot-ninja.com/2008/03/24/ps3...line-problems/

Good deal over at Lego.com. Star Wars: Complete Saga for the PS3 available for $24.99........

http://shop.lego.com/Product/?p=PS3038

Warhawk developer says that new Warhawk game already in development. New expansion v1.3 to be released soon. Also mentions later in the thread that version 1.4 will have free new game modes and content...........

http://blog.us.playstation.com/2008/...#comment-50290

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

http://wii.ign.com/articles/861/861448p1.html

Rock Band on Wii, June 22nd. "The game will feature 63 songs including five bonus songs for Wii gamers to enjoy."

Doesn't mention DLC though.

http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/inTheNews/Josh.php?id=207

We followed up with MTV, got confirmation that there will not be DLC for the Wii.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

http://www.gamenikki.com/g3/inTheNews/Josh.php?id=207

We followed up with MTV, got confirmation that there will not be DLC for the Wii.

Well that blows. Not buying this.

[SackAttack]

Looks like Kotaku got confirmation of the no-online-play bit from Harmonix/MTV. I'm still waiting on that myself, but I guess it answers that question.

Their response from Harmonix referred to a "robust four-player experience," but made no mention of Band World Tour. My request for more info on that one is still outstanding.

[Big Fo]

How much space does the typical Rock Band downloadable song take up?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

How much space does the typical Rock Band downloadable song take up?

I wanna say a three-pack is around 28 MB on the Xbox 360.

Would probably be smaller on the Wii because of lower-res graphics, but on the 360, it's around 28-30 for a 3-song pack.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I wanna say a three-pack is around 28 MB on the Xbox 360.

Would probably be smaller on the Wii because of lower-res graphics, but on the 360, it's around 28-30 for a 3-song pack.

Well that's less space than Ocarina of Time (one of the biggest games on the Virtual Console) takes up, and WiiWare games supposedly need to be kept under 40 MB, so lack of storage might not be the main reason for no Rock Band DLC? Or just the Wii's online is too lacking in general maybe, it'd be nice to know the specific reason.

[MJ4H]

Laziness? Indifference?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Well that's less space than Ocarina of Time (one of the biggest games on the Virtual Console) takes up, and WiiWare games supposedly need to be kept under 40 MB, so lack of storage might not be the main reason for no Rock Band DLC? Or just the Wii's online is too lacking in general maybe, it'd be nice to know the specific reason.

I think it really does come down to storage space.

Harmonix would love for people to download every song they release, obviously, but what happens when people start hitting that 512 MB storage wall? Are they going to start transferring stuff to and from the SD card on a regular basis to play their songs, or are they just going to stop purchasing the music?

Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Harmonix doesn't want to go down that road for that reason, particularly when the competition provides 40x+ as much room to store DLC.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

EA CFO resigns. It's never a good sign when your CFO resigns during a major acquisition bid. Over the past 3 years, EA's revenue stream has remained stagnant and its net income has dropped from $577M to $76M, a net loss of 87% of their total income. Similarly, Take Two's revenue stream has dropped from $1.127B to $981M over the past 4 years, a drop of 13%.

Expect a large number of layoffs if the merger goes through, including a likely sell-off of anything not named Rockstar or Firaxis.................

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=17970

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

The initial shipment of Gran Turismo 5: Prologue in Europe apparently is gone. Retailers are warning customers that current orders will not be filled until next week.

http://frag-cast.blogspot.com/2008/0...-sold-out.html

I'm still amazed that a game that basically amounts to a fancy demo is selling so well in Japan and Europe. It'll be interesting to see what numbers it puts up in North America next month.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Rumor mill list from OPM Magazine. No major surprises outside of the Mass Effect rumor........

http://www.pslegion.com/news/this-mo...res-and-rumors

- God Of War III is a long way off, won't be released until Christmas 2009.
- The BBC believes Sony has a secret game in the works for 2009.
- Capcom is developing Dead Rising 2 for multiple platforms including PlayStation 3.
- Team ICO's new game has links to Norse myths.
- Mass Effect and its sequels will come to PlayStation 3.
- Sony already has a in-game version of the PlayStation 3's XMB up and running.
- Netflix will soon offer movie downloads straight to your PlayStation 3.

[stevew]

I can't wait for the day where you can download as many HD movie rentals as you want for a reasonable rate(say 25 bucks per month). It's gotta be coming soon I would hope.

In the ownership market, I doubt that non-physical mediums will become the most popular format for awhile yet, but in the rental arena I can definitely see it eventually eliminating the corner video store.

[MizzouRah]

Netflix surveys members on Microsoft Xbox.

http://www.reuters.com/article/techn...35747920080325

[stevew]

Tecmo for Wii will make me upset that I'm selling mine. But I can definitely see buying it for DS. If I can ever pry that thing out of my 8 year olds hands.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Rumor mill list from OPM Magazine. No major surprises outside of the Mass Effect rumor........

- God Of War III is a long way off, won't be released until Christmas 2009.

No surprise.

- The BBC believes Sony has a secret game in the works for 2009.

Duh. I'm sure they have more than one "secret game" in the works, although admittedly not for 2009 specifically.

- Capcom is developing Dead Rising 2 for multiple platforms including PlayStation 3.

No shock. Microsoft would love for it to stay exclusive, but Capcom isn't going to miss the boat if they think this is poised to be the year that the PlayStation business finally starts to recover some of its luster.

- Team ICO's new game has links to Norse myths.

Given their history, that isn't quite the "no-brainer of the year," but you can see it from there.

- Mass Effect and its sequels will come to PlayStation 3.

I still maintain that Microsoft wouldn't give up publishing rights/exclusivity without some kind of significant quid pro quo. "We want to be on good terms with EA" probably doesn't qualify, so if this is true, I'd be very interested in what Microsoft was getting out of giving up exclusivity on a system-seller like that.

- Sony already has a in-game version of the PlayStation 3's XMB up and running.

I wonder if this is even an issue if Xbox Live hadn't made the jump from external buddy lists to guide-button-accessible buddy lists in the transition to Xbox 360. It's kind of weird.

- Netflix will soon offer movie downloads straight to your PlayStation 3.

If they offer it in HD too, fine. Otherwise, not interested (goes for both PS3 and 360.)

[RedHawk00]

anyone else notice that sales of games for the wii seem to be far behind the ratio of games to systems for the other next gen consoles. if i were nintendo brass i would be a bit worried about that. the people buying games own the 360 and ps3.

i wonder if selling to the non-gamers is a good idea for the longer run. we will see.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RedHawk00

anyone else notice that sales of games for the wii seem to be far behind the ratio of games to systems for the other next gen consoles. if i were nintendo brass i would be a bit worried about that. the people buying games own the 360 and ps3.

i wonder if selling to the non-gamers is a good idea for the longer run. we will see.

Nintendo didn't put themselves in a situation where they have to sell tons of games. They make a profit off of every console sold and have since launch. I seriously doubt revenue will ever be a problem with the Wii.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Nintendo didn't put themselves in a situation where they have to sell tons of games. They make a profit off of every console sold and have since launch. I seriously doubt revenue will ever be a problem with the Wii.

Yep. Nintendo operates under a different business model in the console market than MS and Sony do. Add in that most Wii games are published by Nintendo as well, and company profit is not a problem.

[Mac Howard]

My daughter has her 13th birthday in 4 weeks and I'm thinking of getting her a new console (she has a PS2). I'm down to Wii and PS3 (I like the idea of a blue ray player) but not sure which is best for a 13 year old girl. Suggestions?

Incidentally, have you seen this:

hxxp://www.wired.com/gaming/gamingreviews/news/2008/03/wiiware

Nintendo launched WiiWare, its games-on-demand service for Wii, Tuesday in Japan. With a few clicks, owners of the console can log in to the Wii Shopping Channel and download new games that range in price from $5 to $15. Titles include new entries in the popular Dr. Mario and Final Fantasy series.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by RedHawk00

anyone else notice that sales of games for the wii seem to be far behind the ratio of games to systems for the other next gen consoles. if i were nintendo brass i would be a bit worried about that. the people buying games own the 360 and ps3.

i wonder if selling to the non-gamers is a good idea for the longer run. we will see.

They aren't far behind the other consoles though. The Wii actually has a better tie-ratio (around 5 games sold per Wii, Wii Sports not included) than the PS3, and the Xbox 360's is around 7. Keep in mind that the 360 came out in late 2005, early adopters have had a full extra year to buy games and increase that ratio. Wii software actually outsold 360 software in January and the huge December month (never found numbers for February) despite being over a million behind the 360 in hardware totals.

The non-gamer thing is also overblown. According to Nintendo of America's president 90% of Wiis are sold to people who previously owned consoles. Was Grandma in line to be one of the 1.5 million people that bought Smash Bros. it's first week? Doubtful.

Incidentally, have you seen this:

hxxp://www.wired.com/gaming/gamingreviews/news/2008/03/wiiware

Nintendo launched WiiWare, its games-on-demand service for Wii, Tuesday in Japan. With a few clicks, owners of the console can log in to the Wii Shopping Channel and download new games that range in price from $5 to $15. Titles include new entries in the popular Dr. Mario and Final Fantasy series.

I'm looking forward to this, it will start up here sometime in May. The Final Fantasy crossed with Sim City game sounds fun.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Netflix surveys members on Microsoft Xbox.

http://www.reuters.com/article/techn...35747920080325

I'm floored that there hasn't been an official announcement before now. Netflix to the 360 and PS3 has been one of the worst kept secrets over the past three months. It was initially discussed in January.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

My daughter has her 13th birthday in 4 weeks and I'm thinking of getting her a new console (she has a PS2). I'm down to Wii and PS3 (I like the idea of a blue ray player) but not sure which is best for a 13 year old girl. Suggestions?

Incidentally, have you seen this:

hxxp://www.wired.com/gaming/gamingreviews/news/2008/03/wiiware

I have a PS3 and Wii. Either one would be a good console for her. Just depends on what you're looking for. I have a friend that has a 13 and 12 year old daughter. The girls like playing Wii Sports and Mario Party on the Wii. Really tough to get them into some of the more conventional Wii games. The games with lots of mini-games seem to keep their attention for a while as well.

They like to play Dance Dance Revolution, Singstar, Rock Band, and Guitar Hero on the PS3. The one nice thing about those games on the PS3 vs. the Wii is that downloadable content (i.e. they can get additional songs they like) is only available on the PS3. All of the above titles are a lot of fun in groups as well. It seems like music games work really well with girls at that age because they have a lot of energy and love bouncing around while singing. Personally, I get exhausted just watching them play the games.


In regards to the WiiWare, here's an article from Wired.com about the release in Japan...........

http://blog.wired.com/games/2008/03/...ge-wrapup.html

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm floored that there hasn't been an official announcement before now. Netflix to the 360 and PS3 has been one of the worst kept secrets over the past three months. It was initially discussed in January.

Netflix to the 360 would be absolutely huge for me.

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by RedHawk00

anyone else notice that sales of games for the wii seem to be far behind the ratio of games to systems for the other next gen consoles. if i were nintendo brass i would be a bit worried about that. the people buying games own the 360 and ps3.

i wonder if selling to the non-gamers is a good idea for the longer run. we will see.

Nintendo became the third largest company in Japan in terms of market value in October and passed Sony well before that... Their value increased three-fold since the release of the Wii! I don't think there is any way you can criticize their strategy or performance in this generation. What they've done is pretty much unprecedented.

[Kodos]

I can criticize the fact that Wiis are impossible to find in stores still.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Good holiday battle shaping up with game releases. Killzone 2 and Little Big Planet set for September release with Resistance 2 coming out in November. Microsoft will be releasing Fable 2, Gears of War 2 and the new Banjo game to compete.

http://www.videogamer.com/news/26-03-2008-7860.html

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I can criticize the fact that Wiis are impossible to find in stores still.

*shurg*... as much as this sucks, I still think you'd be hard pressed to be TOO harsh on Nintendo for this. They are producing AND selling consoles at all-time record rates. There's only so much you can do.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

My daughter has her 13th birthday in 4 weeks

Sounds like she's pulling a fast one. Most people only have 1 birthday a year.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by wade moore

*shurg*... as much as this sucks, I still think you'd be hard pressed to be TOO harsh on Nintendo for this. They are producing AND selling consoles at all-time record rates. There's only so much you can do.

I'm willing to spot companies a 6 month period after launch to get production up to a level that meets demand.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm willing to spot companies a 6 month period after launch to get production up to a level that meets demand.

They definitely could have put in additional production lines by this point to meet the demand. It could be that they don't want to expand production too far for fear that the heavy demand may decrease for any reason in the future. They'd opt for a tighter supply instead of oversupply anyday.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm willing to spot companies a 6 month period after launch to get production up to a level that meets demand.

Seriously Kodos. There is only so much production that is reasonable. How many electronic products do you know that are selling the numbers that the Wii is selling? It's just an astronomical number. I can't imagine what the upstart costs for a new factory/modifying a factory/etc are. They can only increase so much before they are quickly overproducing demand and causing an entire new, costly set of problems down the road.

[MikeVic]

I don't know, everyone I know that's wanted a Wii has gotten one within a couple of weeks.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I don't know, everyone I know that's wanted a Wii has gotten one within a couple of weeks.

Work for Gamestop?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Work for Gamestop?

Haha naw. But there's a smaller town out here that I was told ends up getting a few sitting on the shelves. Plus there's some online thing that tracks when stores get them.

[Big Fo]

If you couldn't find a Wii the weekend before last when Smash came out you probably weren't trying hard enough. It's been said before but no other company has produced as many consoles as Nintendo has sixteen months after launch. One thing Nintendo should do is give the US a bigger slice of the Wiis that are produced since people haven't had to wait in line to get one for months elsewhere.

[Fidatelo]

I just saw about 4 Wii's sitting on the shelf at the Zellers by my house.

[Kodos]

The funny thing is that I don't want a Wii. But I always check for them at stores, just out of curiosity. I've only seen them in stock once.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

The funny thing is that I don't want a Wii. But I always check for them at stores, just out of curiosity. I've only seen them in stock once.

I've been doing something similar with the 360 as of late. Just to see how widespread the 'shortage' is.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

SOCOM: Confrontation gets September release date...........

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3167113

GT5 pushed back into early 2009.........

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/862/862361p1.html

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

SOCOM: Confrontation gets September release date...........

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3167113

GT5 pushed back into early 2009.........

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/862/862361p1.html

I'll find it later today when I have time, but it said GT 5 was actually pushed back into "mid-late 09 - at least a year away."