Who will (not should) be the Republican presidential nominee in 2008?

[st.cronin]

I've read some Keynes, and I don't believe that's what he argues for. I admit I am not an economist, however.

[ISiddiqui]

Keynes definately does see greater government involvement in the economy, especially involving "priming the pump".

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

"Spend liberally" and "economic liberal" are not the same thing. In fact, if we take the correct definitions for each, they're almost the exact opposite.

The connotation of the term "economic liberal" probably comes from spending freely, as you point out by spend liberally. Denotatively, you're right on the money.

But, at which point does something that was once liberal, become a conservative belief?

[Greyroofoo]

So did anyone watch the debate?

[Buccaneer]

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Is Mike Huckabee the new Howard Dean?
That's what one prominent conservative thinks, and he's warning his fellow Republicans not to nominate the former Arkansas governor.

Rich Lowry, an editor of the conservative publication the National Review (which endorsed rival Mitt Romney this week), writes on the Republican Web site Townhall.com Friday that nominating Huckabee would amount to "an act of suicide" for the party.

"Like Dean, Huckabee is an under-vetted former governor who is manifestly unprepared to be president of the United States," Lowry writes. "Like Dean, he is rising toward the top of polls in a crowded field based on his appeal to a particular niche of his party."

"As with Dean, his vulnerabilities in a general election are so screamingly obvious that it's hard to believe that primary voters, once they focus seriously on their choice, will nominate him," he adds.

Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, has gained ground in several key primary states largely due to his appeal to Republican evangelical voters. Recent polls have suggested he now holds a double-digit lead over Romney in Iowa, and is in front of Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in South Carolina.

And in the latest sign Huckabee's campaign is gaining serious momentum, veteran GOP strategist Ed Rollins — the architect of Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide re-election victory — has signed on to help manage the operation.

Not so fast, says Lowry. According to the conservative commentator, nominating a Baptist minister would turn one of the party's assets — its message of social conservatism — into a liability.

"[A] Baptist pastor running on his religiosity would be rather overdoing it," he wrote. "Social conservatism has to be part of the Republican message, but it can't be the message in its entirety."

Huckabee's campaign has not returned a request for comment on Lowry's column.

I agree with all of these points, which I alluded to earlier. Huckabee would be the most right-wing candidate since Goldwater, and basically unelectable. The Dems are giving respect to Huckabee because, unless 3-4 other candidates, they know they can beat him easily. The Rep will play it safe and not throw this election away like they did in 1996.

[JPhillips]

No way I would underestimate Huckabee in the general. He's a better politician than anyone else on the Republican side and probably a better candidate than anyone but McCain. If the Social Cons don't get Huckabee they may very well run a third candidate or sit at home. Do you think the religious voters are going to vote for a guy they think is in a cult or a pro-choice, pro gay rights, serial adulterer? I sure don't.

Give me Rudy or Romney any day. Neither one can motivate the religious voters and once Rudy's ties to a mobbed up cop and a pedophile priest become common knowledge he'll be DOA. Regardless of your paranoid fantasies, I really believe it when I say Huckabee is the guy I fear the most. His skills come very close to those of Bill Clinton.

[flere-imsaho]

Huckabee now looking more and more likely to win Iowa. Giuliani apparently is giving up on New Hampshire, which should give it, in a landslide, to Romney. I still think it's mostly too close to call, but has to be split between Giuliani and Romney.

The increased press Huckabee has gotten is starting to also shine light on more and more of his skeletons. For instance, his past conservative quotes are getting a lot more airtime. His spendy fiscal "policy" is also getting attention, as well as his "Willie Horton" incident. And lastly, some sources are now picking up the story of his son, while a camp counselor at a Boy Scout camp in 1998, allegedly participating in the hanging of a stray dog. The State Police were asked to investigate, but never did, and there's the suggestion that Huckabee put pressure on them not to investigate. This could be a real problem in our post-Vick world for Huckabee.

McCain is still showing some signs of life, but it has to be too little, too late. No one else is really in the race, though Ron Paul is raising a lot of money.


My current prediction is that Huckabee picks up Iowa, Romney gets New Hampshire and Giuliani gets Florida, but not by quite the margin he expected, robbing him of some momentum going into Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday comes out with Giuliani having a slight lead over Romney and Huckabee out of the race. I'm not sure what happens after this.

I'm still not sure what (realistic) candidate has the best chance against Clinton, Obama or Edwards.

[albionmoonlight]

I am waiting for Giuliani to say that he is pulling out of Florida and focusing on Super Tuesday.

Until he decides to pull out of Super Tuesday and focus on the general election.

I am hoping that he becomes the first top-tier candidate in history to manage to pull out of every relevant race before the nomination.

[RomaGoth]

Giuliani should just pull out all together. He and Romney are both flip-floppers and fakes. For that matter, so is McCain.

[Cringer]

Ron Paul is winning me over I think. And I usually hate Republicans. Democrats too, but usually Republicans more.

[Cringer]

So as I watch some Ron Paul stuff on YouTube, I am finding that FoxNews really doesn't like him for some reason. Every time he is on there they rip on him more then I would have expected.

[watravaler]

Is there a site that tracks the number of "positive" media stories verus the "negative" ones? Something like this would tell me who has the best PR, and probably the support of the men behind the curtains...

I think throwing the uberly religious Huckabee on the ticket helps the Republicans in future elections with a certain demographic, and if the Republicans feel they have no chance in 2008, I think they run with that strategy...

[Buccaneer]

It looks like the predicted fall for Rudy has happened but I believe for a different reason. Voters don't remember details too well and if you ask them about any specifics (like "huge" scandal discussed here), they won't recall that. It seems to be a general feeling, which has always been a key voter motivator, along with being anti-party/other guy-gal/whatever.

McCain is the safe choice I mentioned earlier, since he is known and is basically sticking on-message.

[JPhillips]

Buc: The general impression of Rudy turned negative in large part because the media found a number of small scandals and Rudy couldn't explain them away. Add to that the real conservative alternative in Huckabee becoming a viable choice, and Rudy's fall is pretty clear.

I agree that McCain may have a chance, but only if it becomes a two man race ASAP. McCain has to in in NH and that has to cause Romney to drop out, which I think is possible if unlikely. Rudy has to continue to fall and needs to be out before Super Tuesday. If it becomes a two man race before Super Tuesday I think Huckabee is in trouble, but he will still remain a major power broker.

[Cringer]

I don't think anything is close to being decided. Kerry wasn't exactly sitting pretty before the Democratic primaries last time around was he?

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Cringer

So as I watch some Ron Paul stuff on YouTube, I am finding that FoxNews really doesn't like him for some reason. Every time he is on there they rip on him more then I would have expected.

They've been doing that since the first or second debate when he wouldn't fall in line with the whole "they hate us for our freedom" nonsense.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by sabotai

They've been doing that since the first or second debate when he wouldn't fall in line with the whole "they hate us for our freedom" nonsense.

So what you're basically saying is that we should take our marching orders from Al Queda if they want us off the Arabian Penninsula?

[Cringer]

bump

[Jas_lov]

It's looking like McCain will win NH. Romney was terrible in the debate tonight. McCain wasn't good either, but not as bad as Romney. There's another debate tonight on Fox News, of which Ron Paul has been excluded for no good reason btw, so we'll see how that turns out and if the polls change at all before Tuesday.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

It looks like the predicted fall for Rudy has happened but I believe for a different reason.

Rudy is a one-trick pony. You ask him about Social Security, and he talks about 9-11. You ask him about the mortgage crisis, and he talks about 9-11. You ask him about health care, and he talks about 9-11........

[JPhillips]

Rudy actually said coming in sixth in Iowa wasn't as hard as 9/11.

[flere-imsaho]

Iowa - Huckabee
NH - McCain
Michigan - probably Romney
Nevada - ??
South Carolina - probably Huckabee
Florida - ??

Still anyone's game going into Super Tuesday. I expect Huckabee, Romney, McCain and Giuliani to still be in the race, along with a 5th contender who probably realizes he can't win but can't be bothered to close up his campaign yet (I'm looking at you, Fred Thompson).

[sooner333]

I wouldn't even give a probably to anyone in Michigan. Two separate polls came out in the past couple of days--Romney is second in both. The only problem is that McCain is first in one, Huckabee in the other. I think McCain will take Michigan. Huckabee takes SC. Anyone could take NV. Guliani takes Florida. And it could be anyone taking Super Tuesday (except Thompson, Hunter, or Paul, obviously).

[SFL Cat]

No one on the GOP side appeals to me.

Ultimately, I think Romney will win, and pick either Huckabee or McCain as his running mate.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

No one on the GOP side appeals to me.

Ultimately, I think Romney will win, and pick either Huckabee or McCain as his running mate.

Romney and McCain can't stand each other.

[flere-imsaho]

I'd be a bit surprised if any of the remaining Republican candidates pick each other for Veep when it gets down to it (unless it's part of a deal at a locked convention). But most of this season so far's been pretty surprising, so I'll not rule anything out.

[JPhillips]

I wouldn't be surprised if McCain chose Huckabee. They are the only two that seem to like and respect each other. The tone between them is very different than between other pairs. It would also be a smart political move as Huckabee shores up McCain's weak areas.

[Butter]

If McCain wins the Republican nomination, I'll eat my hat.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

If McCain wins the Republican nomination, I'll eat my hat.

Since we all know your hat is exactly like the one the woman below is wearing:



I give that statement a big ole...

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Romney and McCain can't stand each other.

Politics make strange bedfellows.

[Kodos]

Hmmm. This thread seems much less popular than its democratic cohort.

[Buccaneer]

Very simply is that you got a charismatic candidate vs a hated/devisive candidate on the Dem side, while on the Rep side, you simply got candidates.

[Bubba Wheels]

The only GOP candidate I absolutely will not vote for if nominated is McCain. That would entail a third party choice. And talk about asleep media, wasn't Mcain a member of the Keating Five? Eerily reminiscent of today's exploding subprime mortgage scandal.

BTW, was telephone polled by Rasmussen the other night. Gave the following responses: Excellent...Paul and Thompson...Good...Romney and Guiliani...Fair...Huckabee...Poor...well, who's left?

[Schmidty]

After watching tonight's republican debate, I will guarantee one thing: If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, I will vote democrat for the first time ever (unless it looks like Ron Raul has a chance, which is unlikely). The man is a rich, slimey, disgusting, cut-throat career politician who would simpy be George Bush 2. He is rotten and despicable, and I pray that he doesn't get the nomination.

If he wins, I would even vote for Hilary.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

After watching tonight's republican debate, I will guarantee one thing: If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, I will vote democrat for the first time ever (unless it looks like Ron Raul has a chance, which is unlikely). The man is a rich, slimey, disgusting, cut-throat career politician who would simpy be George Bush 2. He is rotten and despicable, and I pray that he doesn't get the nomination.

If he wins, I would even vote for Hilary.

Agreed. Romney's pretty much a cumstain, I'd vote for any democrat, or just stay home if he wins the nomination.

[Honolulu_Blue]

This is a pretty entertaining/clever list for "Buffy The Vampire Slayer" fans.

The GOP Candidates as Buffy villians.

http://www.cogitamu sblog.com/ 2008/01/the- gop-primary. html

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

After watching tonight's republican debate, I will guarantee one thing: If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, I will vote democrat for the first time ever (unless it looks like Ron Raul has a chance, which is unlikely). The man is a rich, slimey, disgusting, cut-throat career politician who would simpy be George Bush 2. He is rotten and despicable, and I pray that he doesn't get the nomination.

If he wins, I would even vote for Hilary.

Originally Posted by stevew

Agreed. Romney's pretty much a cumstain, I'd vote for any democrat, or just stay home if he wins the nomination.

Let's Go Romney!

*clap* *clap* *clap clap clap*

Let's Go Romney!

*clap* *clap* *clap clap clap*

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Since we all know your hat is exactly like the one the woman below is wearing:



I give that statement a big ole...

Classic

I will vote Dem for the first time ever if Ron Paul can't pull off a miracle!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by stevew

Agreed. Romney's pretty much a cumstain, I'd vote for any democrat, or just stay home if he wins the nomination.

Plus a million.

[Jas_lov]

Mitt Romney won Nevada by a landslide, almost 40% was the difference between him and Ron Paul 2nd. McCain got 3rd by a small margin. Huckabee, Thompson, Giuliani round out the field. Duncan Hunter has dropped out.

South Carolina results will be out shortly. Looks like it's McCain-Huckabee battle for 1st, Romney-Thompson battle for 3rd. Thompson may drop out tonight if he doesn't get 3rd. Giuliani may be well on his way to another last place finish.

[Jas_lov]

With 83% reporting, John McCain is the projected winner of S.C. He's already narrowly leading in Florida, so we'll see if this pushes him over the top there and sets him up nicely for February 5th. It will be interesting to see what happens with Thompson and Huckabee after Florida if they finish 4th and 5th there.

[JPhillips]

McCain is fascinating to me. He's winning primaries, but he's still not seen as Republican enough by the base. In both his wins, he's actually lost amongst Republican voters, but carried NH and SC by getting independents in the open primaries. I think he's easily the most electable Republican candidate for the general election, but can he win the nomination when even in victories he can't get a plurality of Republican voters?

[Jas_lov]

I agree about McCain being the only Republican that could win the general election, but it's not like he was blown out of the water among Republicans according to the exit polls. Huckabee beat him 32% to 31% among Republicans, and of course McCain dominated independents.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/pri.../epolls/#SCREP

And in New Hampshire, McCain lost the Republican battle to Romney 35%-34%. So saying he lost amongst Republicans is correct, but it's not like they're rejecting him in great numbers. I think he can win Florida which will set him up well for Super Tuesday. I definitely think he can win the nomination.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/pri...dex.html#NHREP

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

McCain is fascinating to me. He's winning primaries, but he's still not seen as Republican enough by the base. In both his wins, he's actually lost amongst Republican voters, but carried NH and SC by getting independents in the open primaries. I think he's easily the most electable Republican candidate for the general election, but can he win the nomination when even in victories he can't get a plurality of Republican voters?

Isn't that like saying there's no way Clinton can win because she doesn't have the black votes? What constitutes as the "base" in either party is different depending where you are. Besides, 60% of voters are the "base" for both parties, split evenly. It's the 40% independents that's going to make a difference, imo.

[JPhillips]

Buc: I'm not talking about McCain's chances in the general. I'm talking about winning the nomination as he'll only have a few open primaries left.

[flere-imsaho]

It sounded like Thompson was counting on S.C. a lot, so I wonder if he drops out now that he finished 3rd there. And if so, where do votes in later states go?

At this point I'm also willing to go out on a limb and say that if Giuliani doesn't win Florida then the race is over for him (i.e. he'll have a very poor showing on Super Tuesday).

[Dutch]

McCain is not very enthralling to the Republican 'base' because he sits on the fence a lot. We would still vote for him as a lesser of two evils, but as far as independents, fence-sitters, and undecideds go, it could make for an interesting election.

[Vegas Vic]

Many republican voters are rallying around McCain, because they are realizing that he might be the only electable republican in the general election. McCain is the only Republican at this point who has a lead over Hillary Clinton in the general election polls.

Republican Nominee vs. Hillary Clinton

McCain +4%
Huckabee -6.5%
Guiliani -8.7%
Romney -12.0%

Source: Real Clear Politics

[molson]

It's pretty amazing when you look at the CNN polls from just a few months ago:

November 2-4, 2007:
Giuliani: 28%
Thompson: 19%
McCain: 16%
Romney: 11%
Huckabee: 10%

Now, in the most recent national CNN poll from earlier this week:

McCain: 29%
Huckabee: 20%
Romney: 19%
Giuliani: 14%
Thompson: 9%

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Many republican voters are rallying around McCain, because they are realizing that he might be the only electable republican in the general election. McCain is the only Republican at this point who has a lead over Hillary Clinton in the general election polls.

Republican Nominee vs. Hillary Clinton

McCain +4%
Huckabee -6.5%
Guiliani -8.7%
Romney -12.0%

Source: Real Clear Politics

This is probably a smart decision. As an independant voter, McCain is perhaps the only Republican I would vote for right now. If it ends up being HIllary vs Mccain, I would be voting Mccain. I don't think I would say the same about the other Republican choices.