POL--Obama's Problems Starting Already (Email Forward)

[amdaily]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

If M.L. really didn't know that, I'd be on the floor laughing!!

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by amdaily

If M.L. really didn't know that, I'd be on the floor laughing!!

I didn't know that either and when it was posted earlier, I thought it was a joke.

[Izulde]

I think this country would be ready for a black president long before it's ready for a female president.

I know for damn sure that I'd vote Republican before I'd vote Hillary.

[Daimyo]

Forget race or gender keeping Obama and Clinton out of the White House... when was the last time a senator was elected president? Kennedy?

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Forget race or gender keeping Obama and Clinton out of the White House... when was the last time a senator was elected president? Kennedy?

Exactly. If the Dems don't get their shit together and put a better candidate out there then the Republicans can win with pretty much anyone. I sure wish Warner would reconsider.

[SFL Cat]

Well, there's always Biden for the Dems.

I hear black voters have really taken to him!

[Subby]

Now you are just being cruel

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Subby

Exactly. If the Dems don't get their shit together and put a better candidate out there then the Republicans can win with pretty much anyone. I sure wish Warner would reconsider.

Me too. He's basically too rich to need any kind of special interest, which is nice for starters. And he did a damn good job when he was running VA, IMO. Especially after Gilmore left him like that.

[st.cronin]

Watch out for Bill Richardson. He's like Bill Clinton, only without all the girlfriends.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

And I can guarantee if he won the Democratic nomination, the Republicans would be referring to him as Barack Hussein Obama every chance they got to remind the public of that fact.

I don't see any chance Giuliani gets the nomination from the Republicans considering how liberal he is on many issues. Right now I'd guess it will come down to a fight between McCain and Huckabee, I'm just not seeing other potential candidates with much of a shot.

[st.cronin]

I think there's an opening for McCain and/or Giuliani this time. The Republicans are arguably at their worst moment since Nixon left office - there's a lot of bad feeling INSIDE the party. I'm not at all convinced that it will be business as usual in the GOP.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Watch out for Bill Richardson. He's like Bill Clinton, only without all the girlfriends.

I like him as a dark horse.

If his name were Jose Rameriez, he would have no chance.

But he's got such a middle america name that I could see his Hispanic heritige not hurting him a lot with white voters (and, of course, helping him a ton with Hispanic voters).

Right now, I think that an Edwards/Richardson or Richardson/Edwards ticket might be the most winnable one that the Democrats could put up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I like him as a dark horse.

If his name were Jose Rameriez, he would have no chance.

But he's got such a middle america name that I could see his Hispanic heritige not hurting him a lot with white voters (and, of course, helping him a ton with Hispanic voters).

Right now, I think that an Edwards/Richardson or Richardson/Edwards ticket might be the most winnable one that the Democrats could put up.

I don't think Edwards can win the general election. I think he's below Hillary in terms of electability. I would rate the Dems this way (for electability in a general election):

Gore
Vilsack
Richardson
Hillary
Edwards
Obama
Kucinic etc.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't think Edwards can win the general election. I think he's below Hillary in terms of electability. I would rate the Dems this way (for electability in a general election):

Gore
Vilsack
Richardson
Hillary
Edwards
Obama
Kucinic etc.

What makes you think that about Edwards? From what little I've seen of him recently, he seems to have lost that smarmy trial lawyer manner that plagued him four years ago.

Do you think that it is still there, or do you see something else in him?

[JPhillips]

Vilsack has no chance. He has no money, no organization and is terrible on television.

Rumors that I've read say that Richardson may have his own zipper problem.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

What makes you think that about Edwards? From what little I've seen of him recently, he seems to have lost that smarmy trial lawyer manner that plagued him four years ago.

Do you think that it is still there, or do you see something else in him?

1. I think his positions are too liberal. I could be wrong, but I think he's well to the left of Obama and Hillary on issues both foreign policy and domestic.

2. He may have cleaned up a little bit, but he's never going to not be slick, in a way that turns enough people off that it's a negative.

Just my opinion. I know there are some democrats who think he's their best hope. I just don't see it. Vilsack would be a MUCH better choice if they want the White House.

[JPhillips]

Vilsack is to Dems as Dole is to Reps.

You may like his policies, but policies play very little role in a presidential election.

[st.cronin]

I wish Lieberman would run again.

[albionmoonlight]

Has Al Gore said that he is not running?

[Tyrith]

Al Gore would actually be a pretty good candidate if the Dems are just trying to win. Hillary is never going to work -- there are too many people in the middle and on the left that would just say HELL NO to her candidacy, and she's not going to pick up a ton of women voters from the right because they just don't like her positions. Obama is much less tainted now, and I personally like him, but he will be killed because of his associations with Islam and racial backlash. Gore, on the other hand, has picked up a lot of sympathy because of his movie and because of how the GWB presidency is going. He has name recognition and the middle doesn't completely loathe him. If Edwards was at the top of the ticket he'd be maimed by the right as a smarmy trial lawyer -- there's no way to escape it. Al Gore seems like the Dems' best bet if he decides to run.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by amdaily

So no one thinks he's going to commit type of some extraordinary type of gaffe to eliminate himself?

If so, you're kidding yourselves. They guy just hasn't been around the block enough times. And personally, I can't wait 'til it happens.

Can I ask why you're looking forward to it so much?

[amdaily]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Can I ask why you're looking forward to it so much?

Because of the pedestal the media has put this guy on and that he's bought into it. Let's face it, if he were a white unremarkable first term Senator with little to distinguish himself before that, no one outside of IL would know or care about him.

[Maple Leafs]

On the subject of whether a black candidate could win, there was an article recently that argued that Obama is black, but not "black". Meaning he's not black in the sense that most Americans think of the term because he's not descended from slaves. The argument is that this would actually help him, since white people could feel good about voting for a "black" candidate without feeling threatened by him and all the associated guilt that comes with the ancestors of West African slaves.

[Bisbo]

Huckabee could be dangerous. For a conservative Christian, he is clean and articulate.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Bisbo

Huckabee could be dangerous. For a conservative Christian, he is clean and articulate.

From what little I've read about him, he seems pretty likeable and I'll probably support him in the primary. It will depend on who else runs, though, of course. Not a McCain fan so much, not a fan of Romney or Guiliani either. Somebody needs to save the party's soul, may as well be an outsider. The PA primary is probably so late again this time, so it won't matter(again) anyways.

[Drake]

If we ever elect a president named "Huckabee", I'm moving to Canada.

[albionmoonlight]

Instead of a debate, Obama and Huckabee need to have a "clean and articulate off."

Instead of asking a series of policy questions, the moderator could instead give the candidates difficult words to pronounce and time them while they engage in progresively more difficult tounge twisters.

In addition, each candidate could be asked obscure questions about personal grooming habits, and hidden cameras would demonstrate whether they actually washed their hands after using the bathroom prior to the contest.

It would certainly beat watching Bush stare straight ahead into the camera like a lost deer or Kerry making an ass of himself with amazingly awkward references to the sex life of the Vice President's family members.

[Butter]

I <3 Huckabee.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I <3 Huckabee.

Right before I posted that, I said to myself "Self, the first person who makes an I heart Huckabees joke will have to be murdered". Thanks for volunteering, Butter.

[Butter]

Sure thing, chief.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Watch out for Bill Richardson. He's like Bill Clinton, only without all the girlfriends.

I think he's the true darkhorse in that Dem race.

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

On the subject of whether a black candidate could win, there was an article recently that argued that Obama is black, but not "black". Meaning he's not black in the sense that most Americans think of the term because he's not descended from slaves. The argument is that this would actually help him, since white people could feel good about voting for a "black" candidate without feeling threatened by him and all the associated guilt that comes with the ancestors of West African slaves.

This phenomenon (which I'm not sure I buy, yet) has also been cited as a reason why Obama may not win over black voters so easily--because some voters may not consider him legitimately "American black" (because he is not decended from West Africans brought to the Western Hemisphere as slaves).

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think he's the true darkhorse in that Dem race.

Clinton would not have won against a stronger Democratic field. There was no one in 1992 that matches up to Hilary or even Obama. I think Richardson will be the VP nominee.

[Warhammer]

I think ultimately Obama is playing for VP. I just get a feeling from everything that he is not eyeing the big prize. As far as who will get the Dem nomination, I think Edwards will get it, and the Edwards - Obama ticket is the scariest thing from a Republican perspective.

I think the best head of the ticket for Republicans is Huckabee. Everyone else has too many skeletons in their closet that will be exposed during the race.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Hell Atlantic

first off, you're wrong. you didn't say it. i did, long ago.

secondly, Obama wouldn't slap Dean Houston. it's bad for mass appeal. Dean Houston has a lot of respect from black people - he was active in the urban community giving of his free time and a few of his closest friends on the team (Cleveland Browns) were black. they named him an honorary black man after his 4th season cuz he was down with the 'hood.

thirdly, you don't have enough posts to speak about Dean Houston. i don't know who you are or where you posted those couple hundred other posts, but you don't have enough FOFC cred to start dropping his name. that's enough out of you.

Dean Houston doesn't care about post counts.

As for Obama, I have reason enough to vote against him for his opinion on policies. I couldn't care less what his religion is.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Subby

Exactly. If the Dems don't get their shit together and put a better candidate out there then the Republicans can win with pretty much anyone. I sure wish Warner would reconsider.

Our current republican president has what, a 22% aproval rating? Are you ANYONE wants another republican? I honestly think the dem's could put up a black, unwed, muslim women with children out of wedlock, and she'd still win.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Our current republican president has what, a 22% aproval rating? Are you ANYONE wants another republican? I honestly think the dem's could put up a black, unwed, muslim women with children out of wedlock, and she'd still win.

I want another Republican as President. I'd vote for McCain in a second.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Klinglerware

This phenomenon (which I'm not sure I buy, yet) has also been cited as a reason why Obama may not win over black voters so easily--because some voters may not consider him legitimately "American black" (because he is not decended from West Africans brought to the Western Hemisphere as slaves).

Thinking that deeply into the motives of voters gives them a lot more credit than I think they deserve.

[Synovia]

WVUFan, then you must be in that 22%.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Synovia

WVUFan, then you must be in that 22%.

There's a difference between approval of a President (who is in the middle of an unpopular war) and the appeal of a Republican candidate not named Bush who has quite a number of good ideas.

An unpopular President doesn't mean the party he belongs to is unpopular too.

[Synovia]

WVUFan, thats a huge assumption to make. I dont think your average voter sees the two things any differently.

[Fonzie]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

His middle name is Hussein.

Really.

And that reminds me of the words "who's sane."

I like that. He gets my vote.

[Warhammer]

I don't think party affiliation will have anything to do with it, if the Dems don't switch from their attack Bush at every chance. They are going to have to present an agenda for the presidency, and I think the Republicans will win that debate. The Dems won the Congress because they weren't Republicans, but I think two years with no ideas won't help them. Or, two years of failed ideas won't help either. But, if they can come up with some fresh issues and stump them, they have a shot.

The long and short is the same forces at work in 2006 do not mean that the Dems will win in 2008.

[Dutch]

So, some anti-Obama guy sends out an e-mail that makes 'republicans' all look like shit, Fox News gets bashed, CNN glorified, and Obama's now got big problems. So who is gaining anything from this?

[Klinglerware]

Synovia, while the reputation of the American voter for being relatively unsophisticated is probably well-deserved, I do think you are overstating their capacity to make (by whatever internal means) at least somewhat reasoned ordered preferences.

It is the people who choose not to vote (sadly, the vast majority of the voting-aged population in the US) that deserves your ire. The minority of the population that does vote regularly are probably more likely to take the time to make some attempt at a reasoned voting decision, since they already are incented enough to vote in the first place.

[JPhillips]

They are going to have to present an agenda for the presidency

I can't beat this drum enough. They don't have to present anything. They need a likable candidate with a shitload of money and a good rapid response team.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I can't beat this drum enough. They don't have to present anything. They need a likable candidate with a shitload of money and a good rapid response team.

I'm not sure this is true this time - the Iraq situation changes the equation IMO. Whoever ends up as the candidates will have to present a plan for Iraq that the public can embrace, though we all know that whatever they promise in the campaign is not binding if they get elected.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I can't beat this drum enough. They don't have to present anything. They need a likable candidate with a shitload of money and a good rapid response team.

I disagree. They were able to get Congress based upon this, and any Republican candidate worth his salt can exploit that.

There is a difference between running Congressional campaigns and Presidential campaigns. In Congressional campaigns, if things are going well, you can tie yourself to the Pres, and probably get elected. If things are going poorly, you campaign against the party in power and talk about how you are going to do things different. That is what happened last year.

Presidential campaigns are different in that you have to present an agenda. What is your position on Soc. Sec.? What are you going to do about crime? What is your position about the US' role in international politics? You can't just say, we're going to do it smarter, better, etc. You need to tell the electorate how you are going to do it.

[JPhillips]

I don't think so. Bush in 2000 presented an education policy and a general position on cutting taxes. Everything else was left to generalities. Gore presented many more specific policy options. People voted for Bush because they trusted him and liked him. How many times did people talk about liking Bush more?

Every presidential election since at least FDR the more likable candidate has won. That isn't to say that policy doesn't matter for any voters. The general dynamic of 40% definite R, 40% definite D and 20% up for grabs holds for almost every presidential election. The people who decide the election, that 20% uncommitted, tend to vote for a president based on their gut, not policy analysis.

And that makes some degree of sense to me. Afterall most of what a president will have to deal with is unknown during an election. The centerpieces of Bush's presidency weren't on the table in 2000. People want a president that they can believe in. Presenting detailed policy positions will almost certainly lose a presidential election.

The keys are likability, a ton of cash and a good rapid response team. Policy would at best be fourth on the list.

[Peregrine]

I think the story that Newsday is running (http://tinyurl.com/39me4s) about Giuliani not marking his party alignment on a form is pretty interesting. Of course it could be a typo or a meaningless mistake, but with all the speculation that "America's Mayor" might bolt from the GOP and make a run as an independent where it's assumed he'd be more electable...hmm, interesting.