Crappy BCS analysis / prediction thread

[Craptacular]

The most important numbers in the coaches' poll, as far as the BCS is concerned:

Florida = 0.9484
Michigan = 0.9316

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

And of course everyone will already know who got robbed the most: Notre Dame. Not only should they be playing in the big game but should already be declared the winner.

I feel angered by such tragedy!

[kcchief19]

Interesting ... if Florida does overtake Michigan, Michigan gets an automatic bid for the BCS and the Sugar Bowl gets the second and third selections after the Rose Bowl replaces Ohio State.

Does Michigan go to the Rose Bowl? Word is that the Rose Bowl has already told Michigan they don't want them again this year because they've been there frequently of late and their sales have been down. They apparently really want LSU, and LSU wants the Rose Bowl. So lets' say that ends up being USC/LSU.

Sugar Bowl gets the next two selections, one of which can be an at-large team. This is where it could get interesting. They apparently want no part of Louisville (seem locked into orange Bowl vs. Georgia Tech) or Boise State (Fiesta). So Michigan seems a lock. But who do they play? Notre Dame? Not sure they want to rematch a blow out. I'm leaning toward Auburn -- it's an SEC team. Virginia Tech will likely be eligible, as could be West Virginia. Tennessee or Arkansas will also likely be eligible.

Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

[henry296]

Isn't Louisville guaranteed Orange Bowl as Big East Champ?

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Interesting ... if Florida does overtake Michigan, Michigan gets an automatic bid for the BCS and the Sugar Bowl gets the second and third selections after the Rose Bowl replaces Ohio State.

Does Michigan go to the Rose Bowl? Word is that the Rose Bowl has already told Michigan they don't want them again this year because they've been there frequently of late and their sales have been down. They apparently really want LSU, and LSU wants the Rose Bowl. So lets' say that ends up being USC/LSU.

Sugar Bowl gets the next two selections, one of which can be an at-large team. This is where it could get interesting. They apparently want no part of Louisville (seem locked into orange Bowl vs. Georgia Tech) or Boise State (Fiesta). So Michigan seems a lock. But who do they play? Notre Dame? Not sure they want to rematch a blow out. I'm leaning toward Auburn -- it's an SEC team. Virginia Tech will likely be eligible, as could be West Virginia. Tennessee or Arkansas will also likely be eligible.

Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

I'm not sure the Rose rejects Michigan, seeing how it'd set up a Big 10 vs. Pac 10 battle, the traditional matchup of the Rose.

And remember no conference can have more than 2 participants in BCS bowls (I think that is still in effect), so Auburn wouldn't be in if Florida and LSU are.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by henry296

Isn't Louisville guaranteed Orange Bowl as Big East Champ?

Nope. The Big East champ is basically a BCS free agent. The last 2 have gone to the Sugar and Fiesta. The Orange Bowl used to have a deal where they'd get either the Big East or ACC champ, but now they are just affiliated with the ACC.

Louisville will most likely be in the Orange this year, though.

Also I would be shocked if Notre Dame is left out. The Houston Chroncile has reported that the Gator Bowl has already invited WVU, and the Gator would have first crack at ND if they don't make the BCS. In other words, ND is in the BCS.

[JW]

Unofficially sources near LSU are saying this afternoon LSU to Sugar, meaning Florida plays OSU and USC-Michigan in the Rose. LSU's likely opponent is Notre Dame. That has been rumored for some time. Could some or all of this be wrong? Of course.

[Atocep]

If Florida is #2 then its probably LSU vs ND in the Sugar. If Michigan is #2 (looking unlikely right now) then the Rose would probably grab LSU to play USC and ND would play Florida in the Sugar.

[cthomer5000]

Is it just me, or with the "national championship game" shouldn the other bowls return to a strict historical matchup whenever applicable? I mean, it should be mandatory, IMHO. If Michigan isnt in the championship game, the Rose Bowl should absolutely be Michigan-USC.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I'm not sure the Rose rejects Michigan, seeing how it'd set up a Big 10 vs. Pac 10 battle, the traditional matchup of the Rose.

And remember no conference can have more than 2 participants in BCS bowls (I think that is still in effect), so Auburn wouldn't be in if Florida and LSU are.

I would normally think that too, but I don't see it in the official BCS rules anymore:
http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

Another interesting note from the rules ...

When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

So the Rose Bowl couldn't take LSU without the Sugar Bowl's permission.

I agree ... Michigan to the Rose Bowl and LSU to the Sugar, most likely against Notre Dame, makes the most sense. I know the reports were that the Rose Bowl was unhappy with Michigan's ticket sales in 2004-05. That's what led to the the Rose Bowl courting LSU.

But it looks like that can't happen without the Sugar Bowl agreeing to release LSU. So LSU to the Sugar looks like a lock, which pretty much limits the Rose Bowl to Michigan or Notre Dame, since it doesn't make any sense to bypass both of those teams for an also-ran at-large team.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Is it just me, or with the "national championship game" shouldn the other bowls return to a strict historical matchup whenever applicable? I mean, it should be mandatory, IMHO. If Michigan isnt in the championship game, the Rose Bowl should absolutely be Michigan-USC.

The bowls that lose teams to the national championship game want some way of ensuring they still get good teams.

[MJ4H]

LA Times apparently has a BCS source:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/colleg...home-headlines

[cmp]

This system is a joke.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Is it just me, or with the "national championship game" shouldn the other bowls return to a strict historical matchup whenever applicable? I mean, it should be mandatory, IMHO. If Michigan isnt in the championship game, the Rose Bowl should absolutely be Michigan-USC.

All things being equal, sure, I think that's what most people would like to see. But remember -- it's Ohio State the Rose Bowl is losing, not Michigan. Why should the Rose Bowl consent to being stuck with a second-place team if they can get a better team or game?

Look at the Big 12 this year. Let's say Oklahoma didn't get screwed against Oregon. They'd be 12-1 and a very attractive team, maybe in the mix for the national title game. Under tradition, they'd be stuck with Nebraska vs. Boise State. Under the current BCS, they'd get to pick after the Rose Bowl to replace Oklahoma and we'd get Boise State versus Notre Dame.

Who wouldn't want to see that? The Irish get beat by Boise State?

[Solecismic]

As expected. Politics over analysis.

I'm biased, of course, but the BCS is a sham. Michigan's screwing in 1997 helped set up the BCS, so there's some irony today. I am very disappointed that the two best teams in the country won't get to settle this on a neutral field.

[MJ4H]

Funny, I would think the same thing if it had been Michigan.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Looks like Florida gets the number two ranking in the Coaches' Poll...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/colle...l/usatpoll.htm

Funny that Tresell abstained.

I would LOVE it if the final margin between Florida and Michigan is so close that if Tressel had voted and put Michigan No. 2 and Florida No. 3 that Michigan would have finished No. 2. First, the Big 10 would kill him. Second, a margin that thin might the final nail in the coffin and get us a playoff instead of this nonsense.

[cmp]

Ohio State will beat Florida by at least 3 touchdowns.

[Noop]

I hate the Gators. But the way this season has gone for them I would not be surprised if they went and beat Ohio State.

[Craptacular]

OK, the LA Times notwithstanding, here is what I've got:

Based on my earlier guesses for the computers, I was guessing that Florida would have a 0.0100 advantage in that component. However, that assumed that Florida passed OSU for #1 in the Colley and Massey rankings, and I'm not as sure about the Massey. If Florida only makes it to #1 in one, and the rest are as I'm guessing, the computers would be a wash for Florida and Michigan.

If my calculations are correct, Michigan would either need a 48 or 77 vote advantage over Florida in the Harris poll. Last week, Michigan led by 86 over Florida, and trailed USC by 97 votes. There are 114 voters, and USC was 25 votes short of a unanimous #2. Michigan was 8 votes short of an average #3 vote, and Florida was 20 above an average #4. So, there are definitely voters that already had Michigan below #3, and some that had someone other than USC at #2. So, we don't know if it would be enough for Florida if every voter simply moved USC below both of them. There were likely a number of ballots that had USC between Michigan and Florida, but many of those could have already have had Florida as the higher team. Obviously, if the trend of the AP and coaches' poll continued, plenty of voters would move Florida up quite a bit, and it might not end up very close.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

As expected. Politics over analysis.

I have seen countless articles about who will end up No. 2 and breaking down the BCS, just as there has been here. But I haven't seen a single article debating who should be No. 2 based on who is actually the better team. That's depressing and unfortunate.

I'm biased because I favor anything that exposes the BCS for what it is, a flawed system with no rationale expectation for producing anything other than a flawed outcome.

I realize there would be plenty of rancor over a playoff decided who is No. 8 vs. No. 9 or No. 16 vs. No. 17 decided how many you let in, just as there is controversey over the NCAA basketball field. But the difference between the No. 9 or No. 17 team in the country missing out on a national title vs. the No. 3 team is light years. j

Heck, invite the top four teams. Who wouldn't be going nuts with LSU playing Ohio State and Florida playing Michigan on New Year's weekend with the winners meeting a week later? At least then we're arguing over Who is No. 4 instead of who is No. 2.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Noop

I hate the Gators. But the way this season has gone for them I would not be surprised if they went and beat Ohio State.

That's what I was just thinking.

[JeffNights]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Does Michigan go to the Rose Bowl? Word is that the Rose Bowl has already told Michigan they don't want them again this year because they've been there frequently of late and their sales have been down. They apparently really want LSU, and LSU wants the Rose Bowl. So lets' say that ends up being USC/LSU.


Notre Dame could end up out in the cold.

I dont know where people get crap like this from...do a little research and in yesterdays paper "The Detroit News", they interviewed the Rose bowl selection chairman about this very "rumour". He said its an absolute falsehood as Michigan as already sold out its allotment of tickets of 36,000.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Craptacular

If my calculations are correct, Michigan would either need a 48 or 77 vote advantage over Florida in the Harris poll. Last week, Michigan led by 86 over Florida, and trailed USC by 97 votes. There are 114 voters, and USC was 25 votes short of a unanimous #2. Michigan was 8 votes short of an average #3 vote, and Florida was 20 above an average #4. So, there are definitely voters that already had Michigan below #3, and some that had someone other than USC at #2. So, we don't know if it would be enough for Florida if every voter simply moved USC below both of them. There were likely a number of ballots that had USC between Michigan and Florida, but many of those could have already have had Florida as the higher team. Obviously, if the trend of the AP and coaches' poll continued, plenty of voters would move Florida up quite a bit, and it might not end up very close.

I started kicking my computer when I read "Florida" and "ballots."

[MJ4H]

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

edit: confirmed

[Swaggs]

So, what would have happened if there was not a BCS system this year, and we had the old traditional bowl setup.

Ohio State would play USC in the Rose Bowl. Florida would almost certainly go to the Sugar Bowl and maybe play Michigan? But if Michigan would have ended up in another bowl, what would have happened if Ohio State lost to USC and both Michigan and Florida won (or lost)?

I know many people hate the BCS, but I like that it tries to match up the two best teams.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by MattJones4Heisman

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

That game should be better than the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.

[Swaggs]

If Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all win their bowl games, could they finish 1-2-3 in the final polls?

[vtbub]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin all win their bowl games, could they finish 1-2-3 in the final polls?

Only if Boise State and/or Louisville lose their games and if ND beats LSU.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

As expected. Politics over analysis.

What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

[JeffNights]

Originally Posted by molson

What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

Based on what facts do you present to merit such a statement?

You are a ignorant tool.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

As expected. Politics over analysis.

I'm biased, of course, but the BCS is a sham. Michigan's screwing in 1997 helped set up the BCS, so there's some irony today. I am very disappointed that the two best teams in the country won't get to settle this on a neutral field.

Haha. It was Nebraska that absorbed the screwing in 1997. If the two had played, no doubt Nebraska would have beat them. Sorry, it's my job to make sure such statements never slide by without a response.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JeffNights

I dont know where people get crap like this from...do a little research and in yesterdays paper "The Detroit News", they interviewed the Rose bowl selection chairman about this very "rumour". He said its an absolute falsehood as Michigan as already sold out its allotment of tickets of 36,000.

If by "people" you mean me, I'll see your "Detroit News" and raise you Sports Illustrated and ESPN, among others. They all reported that LSU had sold out their Rose Bowl pre-sell allotment and reported "sources" with the Rose Bowl saying that LSU would be invited to play either USC or Michigan depending on the outcome of the USC/UCLA game.

If by "people" you mean sports media relying on anonymous sources, I'll agree with you. But the reason Michigan is denying the rumor is that it's been rampant that the Rose Bowl wanted LSU period, especially if they didn't get USC. Getting USC obviously changes that.

[JeffNights]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

If by "people" you mean me, I'll see your "Detroit News" and raise you Sports Illustrated and ESPN, among others. They all reported that LSU had sold out their Rose Bowl pre-sell allotment and reported "sources" with the Rose Bowl saying that LSU would be invited to play either USC or Michigan depending on the outcome of the USC/UCLA game.

If by "people" you mean sports media relying on anonymous sources, I'll agree with you. But the reason Michigan is denying the rumor is that it's been rampant that the Rose Bowl wanted LSU period, especially if they didn't get USC. Getting USC obviously changes that.

Michigan didnt deny the rumour, the Rose Bowl Selection commitee chairman did.

P.S. Your higher opinion of Sports Illustrated and ESPN are yours and not shared by all. You trust the media outlets you want to

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Haha. It was Nebraska that absorbed the screwing in 1997. If the two had played, no doubt Nebraska would have beat them. Sorry, it's my job to make sure such statements never slide by without a response.

Michigan was ranked No. 1 in both polls heading into the bowls before the coaches decided to change their minds and split the national title. The team that absorbed the most screwing in 1997 was Missouri, who had Nebraska beaten until The Kick. Nebraska should have lost that game and their national title hopes. Sorry, it's my job to make sure such statements never slide by without a response.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by JeffNights

Michigan didnt deny the rumour, the Rose Bowl Selection commitee chairman did.

P.S. Your higher opinion of Sports Illustrated and ESPN are yours and not shared by all. You trust the media outlets you want to

I'm sure that the world would be a better place if everyone fact checked their information against the Detroit News than against every other media outlet in the country that reproted the opposite story. If Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl, I'm sure the Putlitzer organization will recognize the journalistic achievement.

[cmp]

The thing that makes this all so messed up is voters are just voting against a rematch, not for the best two teams left.

[Airhog]

As much as I hate to say it, I would love to see OU get beat handily by Boise St. Only because I think they are getting the shaft.

[JW]

Originally Posted by MattJones4Heisman

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

edit: confirmed

Shreveport Times says you are right.

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/apps/...GNEWS/61203006

Re LSU and Rose Bowl tickets, the demand was incredible, and I've seen numbers of 40,000 plus sold. But what we're hearing now is LSU to the Sugar. Who knows though?

[st.cronin]

Is there a sports site that projects all the bowl matchups?

[st.cronin]

Arkansas vs. Wisconsin, wow.

That's an intriguing matchup.

[molson]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Is there a sports site that projects all the bowl matchups?

Sportline appears to be the closest to real-time - they have most of the matchups filled in now-

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefoo...ls/predictions

[Craptacular]

Originally Posted by MattJones4Heisman

Just got word from a source that Arkansas is in the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin. May be unreliable. Will confirm shortly.

edit: confirmed

Originally Posted by Swaggs

That game should be better than the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.

This is the matchup I was hoping for, as it should be a good game. I definitely did not want to see an Auburn rematch.

[kcchief19]

Odd that the only non-BCS bowls not confirmed are Texas Tech/Oklahoma State in the Insight/Independence bowl slots. Makes me wonder if Texas Tech is considering passing on the NFL Network's Insight Bowl so they can go to a lesser bowl that will be on TV (ESPN)?

[dime]

Originally Posted by molson

What analysis, exactly, would put Michigan ahead of Florida?

Florida has beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan, and is the champion of a conference that has been far superior, top to bottom, to the Big 10.

The only argument for Michigan is the asinine "best lost" theory. A lot of teams have lost to Ohio St - that's not an accomplishment.

Michigan's support comes from Michigan fans, and hardly anywhere else.

florida has never been considered one of the top 2 teams in the country all year, by ANY "analysis". what have they done to suddenly be anointed #2? because they won the SEC in one of the conference's weakest years in recent memory? this week (against another vastly overrated SEC team, natch) was the first time the mighty gators have scored over 30 points against a D-1 opponent since september 9th, when they took it to UCF.

most analysis has LSU has a superior team, for crying out loud. they have no business in a championship game; their accolades all rest on narrow wins over their overrated conference brethren.

this team has actually looked worse as the season has worn on; does this look like the #2 team in the country to anyone not wearing an SEC hat?

@ auburn 17-27
@ georgia 21-14
@ vandy 25-19
vs s.carolina 17-16
vs w.carolina (D-II) 62-0
@ florida st 21-14
vs arkansas 38-28


and no, I'm definitely not a michigan fan. but I do hate the buckeyes and the thought of them getting a gift NC (again!) because of a ridiculous decision to vault a florida team with poor QB play, an embarassing reliance on trick plays, no running game and a porous defense into the #2 slot makes me ill.

[vex]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Arkansas vs. Wisconsin, wow.

That's an intriguing matchup.

Not really. Arkansas will throttle them.

[cmp]

Originally Posted by vex

Not really. Arkansas will throttle them.

Arkansas is extremely overrated in my opinion.

[ice4277]

Originally Posted by gold101

Arkansas is extremely overrated in my opinion.

Possibly, but we don't really know much about Wisconsin either. They were overmatched against Michigan and haven't really played anybody else. I think they're a good team, but its tough to say how good.

[cthomer5000]

I can't understand how a Michigan fan could be too upset, given that they had their chance to take down Ohio State. I think it's a more reasonable decision to give Florida a crack than to give Michigan another one.