Alex Smith

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Cringer

I am tired of hearing guys say a QB is done for in the league when it is still his rookie year. Give them time, and their teams time to build something up around them some. Yes Harrington and Carr and Boller at this point should be getting ripped some, they have been around a while. I still do not think they are a complete wash. All three of those teams have other offensive problems that don't help those QBs much.

And every first rounder is not going to be Elway or Marino, those guys were all-time greats.

I thought Smith as the #1 pick was one of the worst picks ever. I never saw anything from him (except moxie, and moxie alone is not enough - see Detmer, Ty) that indicated he should be a first day pick. I think he has physical skills on the order of Ken Dorsey, and thus should have been a 7th rounder.

So, if we thought he was "done for the league" before his rookie year, is it ok to still think he is, or are we supposed to wait now?

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Samdari

So, if we thought he was "done for the league" before his rookie year, is it ok to still think he is, or are we supposed to wait now?

No, I still think it.

Prototypical system QB. Very Klingler and Ware-esque. I feel comfortable saying he will be a complete and total bust.

I mean, c'mon! I know the Niners are bad, but name another QB anywhere ever who has looked this bad on a regular basis and gets to keep his job? 0 TD's and 10 INT's in 5 starts?

Sorry, Niner fans.

[21C]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Well if he makes it he'll set the record for worst single season QB rating by any QB in the HF. Terry Bradshaw came close, but name another one.

Rookie Seasons
Bradshaw

 

                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1970 pit |  13 |    83   218  38.1  1410   6.5   6  24 |    32   233   1 |

Elway

 

                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1983 den |  11 |   123   259  47.5  1663   6.4   7  14 |    28   146   1 |

Fouts

 

                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1973 sdg |  10 |    87   194  44.8  1126   5.8   6  13 |     7    32   0 |

Young

 

                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1985 tam |   5 |    72   138  52.2   935   6.8   3   8 |    40   233   1 |

Not a HOFer . . .

Aikman

 

                 |              Passing                  |     Rushing     |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT    YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1989 dal |  11 |   155   293  52.9  1749   6.0   9  18 |    38   302   0 |

And no - I don't think that Alex Smith will make it to the Hall.

[21C]

Sorry about the crappy formatting but I got them from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/qbindex.htm

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Samdari

I thought Smith as the #1 pick was one of the worst picks ever. I never saw anything from him (except moxie, and moxie alone is not enough - see Detmer, Ty) that indicated he should be a first day pick. I think he has physical skills on the order of Ken Dorsey, and thus should have been a 7th rounder.

So, if we thought he was "done for the league" before his rookie year, is it ok to still think he is, or are we supposed to wait now?

I disagree there, I think he's going to be a pretty good NFL QB. You say Dorsey, I think he's a QB like Drew Brees with better running skills. You don't have to wait to voice the opinion, you do have to wait before you can say "I won, I had the correct opinion"

As for Rivers, if the Chargers do sit him for a third consecutive year, I'll have to simply bow down and agree 100% with Eli. I'll hate to do it, but I think it'll have to be done. Eli's reasons for not going there centered on the fact it wasn't a good organization to develop in.

Well, they judged Brees to quickly and drafted his replacement a year early. Then they've let the replacement rot on the bench, despite having plenty of cap room to take a hit and offers on the table to make the move.

If they let Rivers sit and rot a third year, I'm gonna have to agree with Eli.

[flere-imsaho]

Carr vs. Harrington

This season & last, Carr's over 60% completion rate. Harrington has never been over a 60% completion rate.

Last season (and probably this one), Carr will throw more TDs than INTs. Harrington threw more TDs than INTs last year, but probably will not this year.

I don't think Carr's a world-beating QB, but I do think he's better than Harrington. Carr, while getting sacked about 3 billion times a season, has shown streaks of good, efficient play and good decisions. Harrington is just routinely inaccurate, making poor decisions.

Favre

I'm amused that a few of you think it's within the realm of possibility that Favre will get benched for Rodgers. Unless Favre wants to sit (unlikely in the extreme), benching Favre would probably put Sherman on the fast bus to Severe Fan Disgruntlement. I mean, the guy's practically a god in Wisconsin.

Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by TroyF

As for Rivers, if the Chargers do sit him for a third consecutive year, I'll have to simply bow down and agree 100% with Eli. I'll hate to do it, but I think it'll have to be done. Eli's reasons for not going there centered on the fact it wasn't a good organization to develop in.

Yes, but not for that reason. At the time, I don't think anyone could have guessed that Brees would blossom as suddenly as he did to keep a 1st rounder on the bench (especially a Manning).

I'm pretty sure that the Mannings' rationale centered around the fact that for years before, San Diego has no O-Line to speak of, and no decent receivers besides LT. I think they were afraid that Eli would get bludgeoned to death. No one could have predicted that Gates would have come out of nowhere and McCardell would have so much left in the tank.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Yes, but not for that reason. At the time, I don't think anyone could have guessed that Brees would blossom as suddenly as he did to keep a 1st rounder on the bench (especially a Manning).

I'm pretty sure that the Mannings' rationale centered around the fact that for years before, San Diego has no O-Line to speak of, and no decent receivers besides LT. I think they were afraid that Eli would get bludgeoned to death. No one could have predicted that Gates would have come out of nowhere and McCardell would have so much left in the tank.

I agree with this flere, and I'm OK with the Chargers action to this point. Brees played well, you play him. You have to play him another year to make sure it isn't a fluke. OK, he's not a fluke.

And this is where I talk about year #3. The Chargers have the cap space to take the one year hit. They will certainly have offers to trade Rivers. If they keep him on the bench rotting for a third year, I have an issue with what they are doing. As an agent or a father, I would have a hard time telling my son to willingly go to an organization that's going to sit their high draft pick three years in a row, without giving him any playing time and are not willing to help move him to an organization that will give him a chance.

The Chargers need to do what is right for Rivers this offseason, and that's to trade him to another organization if they are going with Brees for the future.

FWIW, as a Bronco fan, I hope they keep Marty and keep Rivers. They don't get the extra player or two they need with Rivers still there and Marty, well, as a Denver fan, I LOVE Marty.

[WrongWay]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Favre

I'm amused that a few of you think it's within the realm of possibility that Favre will get benched for Rodgers. Unless Favre wants to sit (unlikely in the extreme), benching Favre would probably put Sherman on the fast bus to Severe Fan Disgruntlement. I mean, the guy's practically a god in Wisconsin.

Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).

If Favre stinks up the place do you still same the same thing?

Also, have there been any Boo bird sightings in Green Bay this year?

[SFL Cat]

Look at Troy Aikman's first season as a starter in Dallas....nuff said.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by WrongWay

There is a Huge Difference between Drew Brees and Brett Farve. You could say Brees is the future for a loaded Chargers team, while Brett is probably Arizona bound to get away from the mess that is turning out to be the Packers organization. But, I quess the Farve decision will come down to what the New Head Coaches plans are for the team.

New Head Coaches? What makes you just assume the Packers will have a new head coach next year? Sherman was signed to a new two year extension before the season. Small enough for the Packers to get out of, but still I am not sure it will happen at this point. There is talk of Mariucci being brought in, but that is just the Packer connection bringing that up I think. Plus, if you haven't heard, Favre has said he will not come back for sure if there is a coaching change, which I don't blame him for really.

Why I am not so sure about a coaching change is this. The Packer/Sherman problems lie mostly in what he did as a GM. The guy had never been a head coach on any level, and after one season as te Packer head coach he was handed the GM role too. It was a big mistake. I think Sherman's problems this year were because of the piss poor roster he had built over the years. I would like to see what happens when he is just a coach, which I do not think he is a bad one even though I don't like the offensive playcalling sometimes.

Also, speculation that I hear is that even though 6-7 head coaches could be fired, the thought around the league seems to be that there is a lack of top level candidates, adn some owners may not pull the trigger like they would have in years past.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Besides, what I've heard out of Green Bay is that Rodgers is appalling. They should have gotten J.P. Losman instead (Favre clone, needs a few years to learn).

Where's this coming from? Rodgers looked weak in the preseason (but no worse than Alex Smith). Is this from someone who watches their practices or something. Just curious.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by moriarty

Where's this coming from? Rodgers looked weak in the preseason (but no worse than Alex Smith). Is this from someone who watches their practices or something. Just curious.

Just reading some of the local press, plus talking to some friends who are Pack fans and follow them closely.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Just reading some of the local press, plus talking to some friends who are Pack fans and follow them closely.

I haven't heard anything really good about him, I can say that much. IMO I think the only thing that has him as the #2 QB is his draft position and the fact that #2 QB's in GB don't play anyways. Otherwise I think Null would still be the #2.

[moriarty]

Interesting. Bad enough that they'd be tempted if a Brady Quinn or Vince Young (assuming they come out) fell to them in the draft?

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by moriarty

Interesting. Bad enough that they'd be tempted if a Brady Quinn or Vince Young (assuming they come out) fell to them in the draft?

Couldn't say, but I don't think they would draft a QB in the first round this draft. The guy needs time, and deserves it.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Couldn't say, but I don't think they would draft a QB in the first round this draft. The guy needs time, and deserves it.

Besides, I think Favre would have a fit if they drafted QB's in the first round two years running.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by stevew

All they have to do is win 2 games and hope pittsburgh or Jacksonville lose at least one. Those odds arent that long for the chargers IMO.

I know that San Diego just beat Indianapolis, but to beat Indy, KC, and Denver in consecutive weeks would be a difficult task for any team in the NFL this year. Besides, Pittsburgh plays Cleveland and Detroit; Jacksonville plays Houston and Tennessee. Even if San Diego does perform the improbable and wins their two games, it's not likely that the Steelers and Jaguars will lose.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by moriarty

Besides, I think Favre would have a fit if they drafted QB's in the first round two years running.

I don't think Favre could give a shit really. If he was to stay with hopes of making a playoff run, a decent free agent guard or two would be more important to him. A rookie first rounder wouldn't make much impact even if he is good. Unless it was on defense, but even then the stats pretty much show that the defense is better this year and the problem is on offense for the Packers...all leads back to those guards leaving, injuries, and Favre over-compensating and throwing picks.

[moriarty]

Originally Posted by Cringer

I don't think Favre could give a shit really. If he was to stay with hopes of making a playoff run, a decent free agent guard or two would be more important to him. A rookie first rounder wouldn't make much impact even if he is good. Unless it was on defense, but even then the stats pretty much show that the defense is better this year and the problem is on offense for the Packers...all leads back to those guards leaving, injuries, and Favre over-compensating and throwing picks.

Well if he doesn't stay, I'm sure he couldn't give a crap. But I seem to recall him being upset this year b/c they wasted their first round pick on the future, and he felt like they should use it on someone that could help immediately since he didn't have many years left. Presumably a lineman. So if they made that move two years in a row, I could see him getting pissed and quitting right before minicamp. edit: I dont' really follow the Packers though, so I could be wrong.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by moriarty

Well if he doesn't stay, I'm sure he couldn't give a crap. But I seem to recall him being upset this year b/c they wasted their first round pick on the future, and he felt like they should use it on someone that could help immediately since he didn't have many years left. Presumably a lineman. So if they made that move two years in a row, I could see him getting pissed and quitting right before minicamp. edit: I dont' really follow the Packers though, so I could be wrong.

It's not like I know Favre's inner thoughts, so I wouldn't say no way it could happen I guess. I could see why it would bug him. I don't remember anything about him being upset about the Rodgers pick but I am not saying it wasn't so. I don't remember anything he said about that pick.

I lineman this year would have been nice, or a LB. I would say CB, but those picks haven't turned out so well for a while now.

[Darkiller]

I have a very hard time believing San Diego will keep Rivers on the bench for a 3rd straight year. This is the Salary Cap era and no teams can ever again have the luxury of sitting a Steve Young for 4 years behind Joe Montana before handing him the starting job for good.

Looking at Cthomer's cap chart, there is roughly a $5M differential between trading Rivers before or after June 1st.
The point is, San Diego has a good cap situation with plenty of space (from what I have read) and it would probably mean a lot more to trade Rivers before June 1st --and even better: before the Draft-- so to have greater compensation.
My guess is they would not receive nearly the same amount in return, if they were to trade Rivers after June 1st.
I think it could be an interesting decision to "absorb" the $5M differential but in exchange get more in return from another team by trading Philippe Rivers early in the off-season, basically as early as Brees is signed to a multi-year deal in Feb or March 2006.

[Darkiller]

dola:

Bottom line is: missing your rookie training camp because of a contract holdout is the worst thing to do....I'm actually glad that it backfired on Rivers.
On that side, Alex Smith promised on the day he was drafted that he would not miss a single day of camp...and he did just that, getting a deal done in time (and that was harder being a #1 overall selection) and reporting a day earlier. That's the kind of seriousness about the job that Troy Aikman had when he went in as a rookie #1 overall pick, and it served him well from what I was told ;-)

To me, this is a symbol of the kind of mental and psyche that A.Smith has about the game of football and the quarterbacking craft. And it has me hopeful about a bright future.
This mental toughness is something Leaf did not have, and something Aikman had. So far, and although his stats are disgusting, Smith is handling the situation as a whole very, very well. A lot of maturity from a 21-year old rookie #1 pick with so much pressure on his shoulder.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Well if he makes it he'll set the record for worst single season QB rating by any QB in the HF. Terry Bradshaw came close, but name another one.

I was referring mostly to Bradshaw, but also to the assertion someone made that his rating might be 40 or 50 on a good team. I remember from the graphic shown during the game that Elway was barely above 50 as a rookie. I think someone else's on that graphic (Bob Griese maybe?) was under 50.

There's no doubt that Smith has been horrible so far, but I was just making the point that he's not the first rookie QB to look horrible, and wind up with a pretty good career.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by Samdari

I think he has physical skills on the order of Ken Dorsey, and thus should have been a 7th rounder.

Having watched them both, Smith's raw physical skills are much better than Dorsey's. He throws much better looking passes. Dorsey's passes take forever to get to his targets.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Jacksonville plays Houston and Tennessee. Even if San Diego does perform the improbable and wins their two games, it's not likely that the Steelers and Jaguars will lose.

I don't know. Jacksonville barely beat the Niners at home. I could see them losing one of these two games.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Darkiller

dola:

Bottom line is: missing your rookie training camp because of a contract holdout is the worst thing to do....I'm actually glad that it backfired on Rivers.
On that side, Alex Smith promised on the day he was drafted that he would not miss a single day of camp...and he did just that, getting a deal done in time (and that was harder being a #1 overall selection) and reporting a day earlier. That's the kind of seriousness about the job that Troy Aikman had when he went in as a rookie #1 overall pick, and it served him well from what I was told ;-)

To me, this is a symbol of the kind of mental and psyche that A.Smith has about the game of football and the quarterbacking craft. And it has me hopeful about a bright future.
This mental toughness is something Leaf did not have, and something Aikman had. So far, and although his stats are disgusting, Smith is handling the situation as a whole very, very well. A lot of maturity from a 21-year old rookie #1 pick with so much pressure on his shoulder.

Sadly, I feel he is quite the product of the system. His running ability worked in the Spread that Meyer ran, but he isn't a fast NFL QB, and he won't have that kind of time to get out of the pocket in the NFL. His throws always kind of float, too. He doesn't have any zip and I think it's going to lead to a career filled of INT's.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I don't know. Jacksonville barely beat the Niners at home. I could see them losing one of these two games.

And the fact Tennessee played hard vs Seattle, I wouldn't be shocked either if they lost to the Titans.

[biological warrior]

He just doesnt have that ''feel'' that he will be a serviceable starting qb. Just from observations when he played against UNLV and other MWC teams.

[clintl]

Well, the consolation for we 49ers fans is that if does turn out to be bust, we'll get another shot or two to pick the right guy. I just hope it doesn't take as long as it took the Bengals.

[Wolfpack]

Originally Posted by Darkiller

dola:

Bottom line is: missing your rookie training camp because of a contract holdout is the worst thing to do....I'm actually glad that it backfired on Rivers.

I hate to have to keep dragging it up, but did you ever even see the crap offers the Chargers were making to Rivers? He had incentive targets that no quarterback in the history of the game could ever hope to meet, things like reaching five Super Bowls during the contract period. He held out because he had to, not because he wanted to. True, they were angling for #1 money because he was traded to the #1 drafting team, but there was a lot more than simply draft slot money causing issues between him and the Chargers.

And for the love of god, don't send him to Detroit! I'd rather him suffer on the bench in San Diego than get killed and blamed for it in Detroit.

[biological warrior]

Originally Posted by clintl

Well, the consolation for we 49ers fans is that if does turn out to be bust, we'll get another shot or two to pick the right guy. I just hope it doesn't take as long as it took the Bengals.

SF could always wait for Brady Quinn and, if Quinn busts Jimmie Clausen.

[clintl]

In more bad news for the 49ers, I see in the paper today that Frank Gore will need shoulder surgery after the season.

[Bad-example]

The 49ers took a lot of heat for taking Alex Smith with the number one pick in the draft. He certainly showed a lot more in his sophomore season than he did as a rookie. He had more to work with, no doubt. I still think he will turn out to be good. Do the people that were sure he was a bust still feel the same way?

[bhlloy]

No, I think Smith showed enough to at least get out of the bust category. He's possibly still not going to be great, but he's at least good enough to be a starter in the league for a while.

Aaron Rodgers is still going to be a bust IMO. I still haven't heard anything good about him from anyone in the know, and he looked bad in preseason again. Add that to the Tedford factor and the fact that Favre is never going to go quietly or allow him to get any real experience and I think the kid is doomed.

[Emiliano]

I liked him a lot this year. I don't think he's the greatest talent ever, but he could be a very good QB for the 49ers. It also depends on what teammates you have, and the 2005 Niners team was one of the worst I've ever seen, at least in recent years (especially the O-line). Overall, I think he showed nice improvements.

[Butter]

I was waiting all year for somebody to drag this thread back out and point and laugh at the nay-sayers. Smith had a good year, considering his first year was god-awful. Year 3 will be a real test. The Niners will be expected to get over .500 next year, and in that division, it shouldn't be too hard, if Smith improves.

[DeToxRox]

49.7 %, 800 yards, 2 TD/4 INT

[DeToxRox]

But seriously, he's back in the bust category.

[clintl]

It's looking that way, although it's hard to tell how much of it is Smith and how much of it is incompetent coaching on the part of Nolan and his offensive staff. I'm not believing that Nolan knows what he's doing any more.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

49.7 %, 800 yards, 2 TD/4 INT

Obviously four INTs is a problem, but he 800 yards in one game is pretty damn impressive.

[Philliesfan980]

There's a nice article on ESPN about how the coaches really aren't playing to his strengths, and about the general lack of innovation in the NFL today.

[Crapshoot]

The offensive line is genuinely terrible, and the OC looks like an idiot (Norv Turner, with all his faults, was very very good at that). Lord knows I think Smith was a shitty pick, but I think he can still turn out to be a league average QB (damning with faint praise) in the right environment.

When I watch the NFL (and you see this in baseball as well) - the more I realize - outside of the stars, its simply not worth paying for mediocrity. Pay the big money to the big stars (the LT's, the Peyton's, the Tom Brady's), and shuffle around the deck of mediocrity. The OL is the one place where paying for continuity may make sense. In baseball, this concept is apparent - pay the big bucks for A-Rod and co - stop giving Luis Gonzales $7M million when a AAAA player can give you 90% of the production for $300K. The concept of replacement level seems to be gaining acceptance slowly, but people don't appreciate that the talent distribution is a pyramid - not a rectangle.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Philliesfan980

There's a nice article on ESPN about how the coaches really aren't playing to his strengths.

Yeah, they don't run nearly enough.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by Philliesfan980

There's a nice article on ESPN about how the coaches really aren't playing to his strengths, and about the general lack of innovation in the NFL today.

Yeah, I read that earlier today.

[Sun Tzu]

So, for the past 3 years I've been a big Nolan and Smith supporter. I see a lot of people coming down on these two (or at least questioning them, and rightfuly so) in recent weeks. However if you've watched every snap of every 49er game this year, like I have had the unfortunate displeasure of doing, you'll notice that neither of these people are to blame. Offensive Coordinator Jeff Hostler...should have never been given the job in the first place. His playcalling has been record setting awful. How they came up with "he was being tutored under Norv Turner for the one year Turner was here" as being qualified for the job is just beyond me. There have been grumblings from 49ers who say that both the O-line coach and Hostler aren't trusted by the players now, and quite frankly I don't blame them. Jonas Jennings was the only player who mentioned something out in the open, and as apposed to hearing him out, the team decided to put him on the IR after a sudden high ankle sprain put him out of commission...for the entire year...seriously guys? The defense has been respectable considering they're spending a minimum of 40 minutes on the field every game. Alex Smith has had what is I'm sure over 15% of his passes dropped (which would bring his completion percentage up to 65%) which is by far the highest in the league. The receiving core is absolutely laughable. Saying their best receiver on the team is Darrell Jackson causes a "shake my head in disgust" reflex. The team has the talent to contend, however the people pulling the strings are flushing it all down the crapper.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

As a Pats fan, I fully support Alex Smith as the starting QB for the 49ers.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

As a Pats fan, I fully support Alex Smith as the starting QB for the 49ers.

Yep. That top 5 pick you will be getting would be mighty nice to have at this point.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Alex Smith has had what is I'm sure over 15% of his passes dropped (which would bring his completion percentage up to 65%) which is by far the highest in the league.

For whatever it's worth, snap has the '9ers ranked 30th in terms of dropped passes.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

For whatever it's worth, snap has the '9ers ranked 30th in terms of dropped passes.

I think those are 2006 stats.