Texas in #1 in BCS

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

The thing I wonder about is why bother having the computers if the human polls mean so much? Why not go back to the old way of doing things with just one human poll? Rather than have this 1 v 2 with 3 being left in the cold, bring back the old bowl tie ins.

I used to love watching all the bowls with 1 v 4. 2 v 3, and 5 v whoever. If #1 lost, #2 or 3 had to hope they dominated to wind up #1, otherwise #4 would move up. Then there was the one year where nearly everyone in the top 5 lost and the #5 team moved up to #1. Geez, I miss those days....

I was wondering the exact opposite. If the computers are going to give us an "unbiased" appraisal as to who the top two teams are, why do we need the human element?

[Mr. Wednesday]

The perception is that people are more comfortable living with their biases than confronting them. I don't know if that's true, but the handling of the BCS is consistent with that belief.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

True enough. But while we're throwing ifs around, Texas could finish with two Top 10 wins as well in Ohio State and Texas Tech. And a win over a Top 15 team in the Big 12 Championship Game. The computers still like Colorado a lot. If they win out and then lose to Texas, they will finish close to the Top 15 with losses to Texas twice and to Miami. And USC could finish with three Top 10 wins in Notre Dame, UCLA, and Oregon. Although Notre Dame isn't as liked as OSU by the computers and Oregon just lost their QB. So call it two possibilities overall.

The biggest flaw I see in all of your commenst so far is the failure to realize that Missouri is going to win the Big 12 North.

[MrBug708]

If UCLA beats SC they'll pass VT, Of course that's a longshot to happen

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

If UCLA beats SC they'll pass VT

No they won't

[VPI97]

late dola -

Beamer says what I tried to explain earlier.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2204125

[MrBug708]

I'd be willing to bet on it as UCLA's win over SC would be more inpressive over VT's win.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I'd be willing to bet on it as UCLA's win over SC would be more inpressive over VT's win.

Sure a win over USC would be more impressive than any other win by anyone...but they don't give out Rose Bowl spots based on one game. Right now you guys have one win over a top 25 team (Cal - currently 24 in the AP) and they're going to drop out either this week or next. Maybe Oklahoma or Oregon State win out to get back in the rankings, but based on their schedules, I wouldn't bet on it. Maybe if you guys would have played Oregon that would have been a big factor. But I just don't see it with your current schedule.

I really don't think an undefeated UCLA that finishes the year with one top 25 win would have enough juice in the computer polls to jump an undefeated ACC or SEC champ. And that's what they would have to do...you're not going to see the Bruins jump a team in the human polls who won either the SEC or ACC Championship game on the same day. In the end, a win over USC wouldn't get it done over a Georgia, Alabama or Virginia Tech who would have multiple top 10 wins on their resume, as well as having played in a tougher conference.

[rexallllsc]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Sure a win over USC would be more impressive than any other win by anyone...but they don't give out Rose Bowl spots based on one game. Right now you guys have one win over a top 25 team (Cal - currently 24 in the AP) and they're going to drop out either this week or next. Maybe Oklahoma or Oregon State win out to get back in the rankings, but based on their schedules, I wouldn't bet on it. Maybe if you guys would have played Oregon that would have been a big factor. But I just don't see it with your current schedule.

I really don't think an undefeated UCLA that finishes the year with one top 25 win would have enough juice in the computer polls to jump an undefeated ACC or SEC champ. And that's what they would have to do...you're not going to see the Bruins jump a team in the human polls who won either the SEC or ACC Championship game on the same day. In the end, a win over USC wouldn't get it done over a Georgia, Alabama or Virginia Tech who would have multiple top 10 wins on their resume, as well as having played in a tougher conference.

That would be pretty sad/funny if a team went undefeated, beat the #1 team to end the regular season (thus endin a 30+ game win streak), and didn't get into the NC game because "VaTech played in a tougher conference"

If VaTech and UGa ended up undefeated along with Texas, should the first two play, since they're both from "a tougher conference"?

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by rexallllsc

That would be pretty sad/funny if a team went undefeated, beat the #1 team to end the regular season (thus endin a 30+ game win streak), and didn't get into the NC game because "VaTech played in a tougher conference"

If VaTech and UGa ended up undefeated along with Texas, should the first two play, since they're both from "a tougher conference"?

Did you bother to read my post beyond one phrase?

But to answer your question...should UGA and VT play solely because they play in the SEC and ACC? No. But if Texas finished the year with just one top 25 win and was ranked behind both UGA and VT, then yes, I would expect Georgia and Virginia Tech to play in the Rose Bowl. You don't agree?

[MrBug708]

I dont think that was his point though. It's all moot as it stands of course, but if UCLA holds court over the #1 team in the nation in their own stadium, on Championship Day, I think it would be enough to convince the voters to put the Bruins at #2, especially the star power in the game.

[Swaggs]

I read yesterday that in each season since the BCS poll was established, the two teams that were ranked first and second in its initial poll have never ended up finishing in the top 2 spots.

[cthomer5000]

After taking a decent look at the current BCS standings.... i just dont see how Va Tech can make it.

Even if they finish a consensus 3 in the human polls and a consesus 2 in the computer polls, it wont be enough. In fact even if they were a full-blown #1 in the computers, it wouldn't be enough, Texas would still edge them out (assuming Texas was a consensus #3 in the computers).

Their only hope would appear to be getting to #1 in at least 2 computer polls (and #2 in at least 5) and start cutting into the 2nd place votes Texas is getting in the human polls.

[Joe]

Originally Posted by rexallllsc

That would be pretty sad/funny if a team went undefeated, beat the #1 team to end the regular season (thus endin a 30+ game win streak), and didn't get into the NC game because "VaTech played in a tougher conference"

If VaTech and UGa ended up undefeated along with Texas, should the first two play, since they're both from "a tougher conference"?

Well... we can throw that UGa scenario out.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

In fact even if they were a full-blown #1 in the computers, it wouldn't be enough, Texas would still edge them out (assuming Texas was a consensus #3 in the computers).

That's the kicker... Ken Massey was on a VT board a week or so ago and indicated that should the four teams win out (his example was assuming an undefeated SEC champ of either UGA or Bama...obviously now the only hope is Alabama), then VT would be a clear #1 in the computers due to SOS, with USC and the SEC school fighting for the #2 and #3 spots, with Texas being a consensus #4. In that scenario, VT could handle anything the human polls throw at us.

Now, assuming Alabama falters, the CPU lead over Texas would equate to 1.0 ranking spots in the two human polls...right now they're about 1.2. That should drop with the Georgia loss, since some pollsters had them over us, and I'd also expect for some of the voters to drop Texas from #1 after the game today. Almost every pollster has USC and Texas #1 and #2 in either order...my hope is that convincing wins over Miami and in the ACC title game, coupled with Texas playing nobodies would lead to some voters marking their ballot at seasons end with us #2 and Texas #3. If a couple dozen voters did that, it would negate the points Texas gets from it's current #1 votes...and VT would jump them due to the computers.

Human voters are notoriously stubborn, but since Texas has gained some ground on USC in the polls, I find it hard to believe that VT can't gain ground on Texas if we win out against our schedule.

[mauchow]

College football is going to be absolutely insane all the way to the finish. USC still has a tough road ahead of them if they want to stay unbeaten. Their last four games are all against legit teams. Stanford nearly won today against an undefeated UCLA team. Granted, USC will probably win the rest of them because they're obvoiusly superior. The USC-UCLA will be a great game if they're both undefeated up to that point. Doubtful though.

USC's Schedule:
Nov 5 Stanford TBA
Nov 12 @California TBA
Nov 19 Fresno St. 10:15pm
Dec 3 UCLA 4:30pm

Texas gets the benefit of an easy schedule to finish out the season, minus the conference championship, which could end up being a cupcake anways, Colorado/Mizzou.. Whoop-dee doo. Texas will likely finish the season undefeated, thus allowing them to be in the championship game; but I've seen weirder things happen.

Nov 5 @Baylor TBA
Nov 12 Kansas TBA
Nov 25 @Texas A&M 12:00pm
Conference Championship Game

Virginia Tech will have the toughest time in finishing undefeated, IMO. We saw today that UNC could play with Miami, even if it was only for two quarters...much like Okla St, eh? If VT wins out, they've got a good shot at getting the BCS Championship game. I honestly cannot see VT beating Miami, Virginia, UNC, and FSU to finish out the season. But like I said before, I've seen weirder things happen.

Nov 5 Miami (Fla.) TBA
Nov 19 @Virginia TBA
Nov 26 North Carolina TBA
Conf. Champ

Alabama is also another team that I don't believe will finish the season undefeated. They'll handle MSU no problem, but then you've got LSU and Auburn on the road. Not to mention the conference championship game against either Georgia or Florida. If they too, win out, they'll have a good case for the NC game as well. This is why we take one week at a time...

Nov 5 @Mississippi St. TBA
Nov 12 LSU TBA
Nov 19 @Auburn TBA
Conf. Champ

I'd go through to 10 talking about this, but it'd be pretty much the same thing for every team. They can all lose another game, because that's college football... But the main reason for this, is my hopes for Wisconsin getting a BCS bid. Wisconsin will have obviously, the biggest game of the season against Penn St. next weekend, which will likely decide the conference champions, unless one of them falters against weaker opponents in the final week of the season. Ohio State is still in it, but they still face Northwestern and Michigan. Those will be good games, moreso the Michigan game.

If Wisconsin wins next week, I imagine they'll jump a few more spots plus the ones they'll be gaining this week for Boston College's loss. They may even take over Oregon's spot since they were nil this week. So let's say on Tuesday Wisconsin is #11 in the BCS and at best they'll be #10. Next week, if Wisconsin wins , VTU wins, Appalachian St. vs LSU(okay, joke), and it's possible that a struggling Tennesee team beats Notre Dame, but I'll say no for whatever reason.

Wisconsin will then move ahead of PSU and Miami, giving them #8 in two weeks and possible 7th! Man, I could go on all night with all this speculation. I love college football!!!!

Wisconsin will then basically automatically move into 7th that following week with LSU and Alabama playing the following week. The pieces will fall into place for Wisconsin to get a BCS bid as long as they take care of their own business....

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Human voters are notoriously stubborn, but since Texas has gained some ground on USC in the polls, I find it hard to believe that VT can't gain ground on Texas if we win out against our schedule.

Alabama basically hurts VT either way. They're probably stealing some votes from VT in the human polls, but if they keep winning its possible that they are another wedge that can get between VT and Texas in the computer polls (they were 2nd in two comptuer rankings). So Bama wins help in the computer polls and hurt in the human pollls, and a loss would do the opposite.

Has their been any talk about Texas finishing lower than a consensus #3 in the computers? If so then i think the odds are much greater that VT can catch them. If not I just dont see it... .

I think it would take a consensus #1 in the computer polls (1.000 computer rating), Texas slipping to a consensus 3 in the computer polls (.940 or lower computer rating), and VT getting to about .930 in both human polls. The more I look at i the more i think its possible.. What needs to happen:

1. USC needs to start sucking up ALL the #1 votes. Every vote that Texas gets for #1 means another #2 vote Va Tech needs to even things out.

2. Virginia Tech needs to start gaining ground on Texas... I think they'll need to finish with about 25% of the second place votes in each human poll.

3. Virginia Tech needs to be #1 in at least 5 computer rankings

4. Texas needs to average out to #3 in the computer rankings (.940 or lower computer score).


I just did the math and came up with a pretty reasonable scenario for Virginia Tech just barely edging out Texas. Assuming all the teams keep winning, appearance will very much matter for both Texas and Virginia Tech. They're going to need to be out their selling themselves to the voters each weekend.

[VPI97]

mauboy, it's not VTU

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by VPI97

... I find it hard to believe that VT can't gain ground on Texas if we win out against our schedule.

Time will tell, but I honestly don't believe the schedule you're playing is going to be one that garners enough respect to overtake anybody ahead of you ... especially not if you win out against it.

That's not a knock on the Hokies either, it's just that each time you beat one of these teams, they add another loss to their resume & look less impressive.

Otherwise, you'll have very good win over Miami & presumably FSU (in the conf. C'ship) wins over fairly good BC & WVU, and then there's the lump of so-so or worse teams.

I just don't believe that's appreciably better enough than Texas schedule to create a jump over them in the polls. FSU & Miami both have to win out against the rest of their schedules & then maybe there's a chance, but otherwise ... I just don't see it.

Just my .02, time will of course reveal all.

[cthomer5000]

and yeah, it looks like Alabama would be very much in it with a Virginia Tech or Texas loss. They're very high in a few computer polls, and should jump even higher with the Georgia loss.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Time will tell, but I honestly don't believe the schedule you're playing is going to be one that garners enough respect to overtake anybody ahead of you ... especially not if you win out against it.

That's not a knock on the Hokies either, it's just that each time you beat one of these teams, they add another loss to their resume & look less impressive.

Otherwise, you'll have very good win over Miami & presumably FSU (in the conf. C'ship) wins over fairly good BC & WVU, and then there's the lump of so-so or worse teams.

I just don't believe that's appreciably better enough than Texas schedule to create a jump over them in the polls. FSU & Miami both have to win out against the rest of their schedules & then maybe there's a chance, but otherwise ... I just don't see it.

Just my .02, time will of course reveal all.

They don't need to jump them in the polls, the just need to convince about 25% of the voters that they're #2 in the country.

edit: The actual #2 vs. #3 doesn't matter, the point totals matter. VT just needs to narrow the gap between themselves and Texas. Im guessing they pick up a few points in the new rankings.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

They're probably stealing some votes from VT in the human polls, but if they keep winning its possible that they are another wedge that can get between VT and Texas in the computer polls (they were 2nd in two comptuer rankings). So Bama wins help in the computer polls and hurt in the human pollls, and a loss would do the opposite.

A guy on the VT board had broken down the vote totals into probably number of #1, #2, #3, etc votes...from that, it appears that only USC, Texas & Georgia were ahead of us on anyone's ballot.

1. USC needs to start sucking up ALL the #1 votes. Every vote that Texas gets for #1 means another #2 vote Va Tech needs to even things out.

2. Virginia Tech needs to start gaining ground on Texas... I think they'll need to finish with about 25% of the second place votes in each human poll.

3. Virginia Tech needs to be #1 in at least 5 computer rankings

4. Texas needs to average out to #3 in the computer rankings (.940 or lower computer score).

Yes, yes, yes, yes...except that Texas would have a .920 computer score if they were #3

They're going to need to be out their selling themselves to the voters each weekend.

...and if that's the case, we lose out. Beamer sat on the ball against BC on Thursday night while Mack Brown went for it on fourth down tonight to get a TD instead of a FG against Ok. State. Beamer isn't going to play that way.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

They don't need to jump them in the polls, the just need to convince about 25% of the voters that they're #2 in the country.

I may have missed the number somewhere, but I'm assuming that they don't have very many of the #2 votes right now ... which means that they'd have to "jump" TX in some polls to get them. And I don't see an overall schedule strong enough to justify that at this point, not if somebody doesn't have them there already.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by VPI97

mauboy, it's not VTU

Hah, true that.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by VPI97

A guy on the VT board had broken down the vote totals into probably number of #1, #2, #3, etc votes...from that, it appears that only USC, Texas & Georgia were ahead of us on anyone's ballot.

Then that is good news, right off the bat you should figure you'll gain those #3 votes you didn't have last week.

Originally Posted by VPI97

Yes, yes, yes, yes...except that Texas would have a .920 computer score if they were #3

You're right, and that's even better news.

Originally Posted by VPI97

...and if that's the case, we lose out. Beamer sat on the ball against BC on Thursday night while Mack Brown went for it on fourth down tonight to get a TD instead of a FG against Ok. State. Beamer isn't going to play that way.

While I apprecaite the sportsmanship element, I think he's going to need someone to explain the seriousness of the situation to him.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I may have missed the number somewhere, but I'm assuming that they don't have very many of the #2 votes right now ... which means that they'd have to "jump" TX in some polls to get them. And I don't see an overall schedule strong enough to justify that at this point, not if somebody doesn't have them there already.

Maybe, maybe not. But knowing the voters on the USA today poll, I wouldn't be surprised to see VT have at least one #1 vote tomorrow.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I may have missed the number somewhere, but I'm assuming that they don't have very many of the #2 votes right now ... which means that they'd have to "jump" TX in some polls to get them. And I don't see an overall schedule strong enough to justify that at this point, not if somebody doesn't have them there already.

Well, it happens week in and week out. USC has been losing and gaining back #1 votes regularly. If Virginia Tech comes out and somehow spanks Miami while Texas struggles against Baylor, I think it's safe to say some voters who are really on the fence would lean Virginia Tech that week.

Virginia Tech is a little bit behind for a #3 in the Harris poll (meaning if you do 114 x 23 they come up short of that number), and just a couple points ahead in the Coaches poll.

Having examined it, Virginia Tech ending up #2 in the BCS poll is much more reasonable than I initially though.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Maybe, maybe not. But knowing the voters on the USA today poll, I wouldn't be surprised to see VT have at least one #1 vote tomorrow.

Told you.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankings?pollId=2

[cthomer5000]

They don't even really need to get any closer to Texas if they can indeed finish at 1.000 in the computers with Texas at .920 (dunno what the possibilities of that are).

[Huckleberry]

The Hokies had one first place vote in the Coaches' Poll last week, too.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

The Hokies had one first place vote in the Coaches' Poll last week, too.

not true.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

not true.

It's absolutely true. Count the first place votes from the reported poll results.

Week 8

USC 54
Texas 7
VT 1

Week 9

USC 53
Texas 8
VT 0

Week 10

USC 56
Texas 5
VT 1

There are 62 voters in the Coaches' Poll. Last week's poll results only showed 61 first place votes but the same number of total points as always. To me, it's obvious that they simply failed to show the first place vote next to VT.

[Craptacular]

USC picked up .0077 on Texas in the USA Today poll, and .0057 on Texas in the Harris poll, but fell behind Texas in the Sagarin numbers. However, the change in the Sagarin poll alone does not affect the overall BCS rating, as those numbers were thrown out for both teams last week (high and low), and are now tied for the high/low for each team. Of course, we'll wait to see how the other computer numbers shake out. Regardless, Texas can't do any better in the computers, so USC would have to lose positions in the other computer polls that count in their average (if my math is correct, I think USC would need to drop one spot in two polls or two spots in one poll). Otherwise, USC is back at #1.

I still have to ask why I (or anyone) should care at this point in the season.

[Huckleberry]

Most people figured USC would be #1 this week, which they will be.

Virginia Tech will close the gap, helped by Texas' poor first half and Georgia's loss.

[OldGiants]

What would be exceptionally sweet would be for USC, Texas and Va Tech to all go undefeated but for USC to drop down to third because they don't play a conference championship game. Then USC can miss the BCS bowl for the second time in three years and not play for the national title just like in 2003 when LSU won the BCS bowl and USC didn't win a national title, despite claiming they did.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by OldGiants

What would be exceptionally sweet would be for USC, Texas and Va Tech to all go undefeated but for USC to drop down to third because they don't play a conference championship game. Then USC can miss the BCS bowl for the second time in three years and not play for the national title just like in 2003 when LSU won the BCS bowl and USC didn't win a national title, despite claiming they did.

Except for the fact that there is no offical NCAA recognized Div 1A national champion. Historically teams have been able to call themselves National Champion if they finished 1st in the various iterations of a nationally recognized coaches or sport writers poll.

[MrBug708]

And the fact the AP ranked them #1, which every other team in the nation whose won an NC via the AP Poll, has also claimed.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by cartman

Except for the fact that there is no offical NCAA recognized Div 1A national champion. Historically teams have been able to call themselves National Champion if they finished 1st in the various iterations of a nationally recognized coaches or sport writers poll.

Samdari hearts cartman.

[cthomer5000]

Well, no shockers today. USC back at #1, and VT closes the gap slightly.

[Craptacular]

This week's rankings, with last week's posted below that for comparison (again, apologies for format goofiness)

Team	BCS	Record	Prev Opp	Fut Opp	Harris %	USA %	Comp %	A&H	RB	CM	KM	JS	RW
USC	0.9767	8-0	27-35(27)	24-6	0.9940	0.9961	0.940	.843 (2)	312.690 (2)	.890708 (4)	2.491 (3)	99.74 (2)	8.662 (3)
Texas	0.9729	8-0	35-28(20)	13-11(+CC?)	0.9607	0.9581	1.000	.853 (1)	315.681 (1)	.949558 (1)	2.807 (1)	102.44 (1)	9.083 (1)
Va Tech	0.9294	8-0	33-29(21)	13-8(+CC?)	0.9250	0.9232	0.940	.833 (3)	307.622 (3)	.933590 (2)	2.631 (2)	99.09 (3)	8.716 (2)
Alabama	0.8695	8-0	27-31(23)	14-9(+CC?)	0.8683	0.8703	0.870	.813 (4)	272.592 (8)	.882392 (5)	2.459 (4)	93.94 (4)	8.091 (4)
UCLA	0.7874	8-0	26-37(29)	14-10	0.7781	0.7742	0.810	.807 (5)	280.942 (5)	.876719 (6)	2.383 (6)	91.46 (6)	7.627 (6)

Team	BCS	Record	Prev Opp	Fut Opp	Harris %	USA %	Comp %	A&H	RB	CM	KM	JS	RW
Texas	0.9763	7-0	27-22(15)	15-13(+ CC?)	0.9657	0.9632	1.000	.850 (1)	310.747 (1)	.941233 (1)	2.808 (1)	100.21 (2)	8.702 (1)
USC	0.9756	7-0	22-28(21)	25-9	0.9933	0.9935	0.940	.841 (2)	308.528 (2)	.881628 (5)	2.519 (4)	100.42 (1)	8.517 (2)
Va Tech	0.9164	7-0	23-25(18)	18-8(+CC?)	0.9179	0.9213	0.910	.831 (3)	298.124 (4)	.884038 (4)	2.529 (3)	97.00 (3)	8.293 (3)
Georgia	0.8679	7-0	23-26(19)	15-11(+CC?)	0.8683	0.8755	0.860	.810 (5)	303.257 (3)	.888420 (3)	2.466 (5)	93.88 (5)	7.819 (5)
Alabama	0.8513	7-0	23-23(16)	14-12(+CC?)	0.8301	0.8239	0.900	.813 (4)	271.973 (8)	.902929 (2)	2.587 (2)	94.75 (4)	7.949 (4)
UCLA	0.7384	7-0	21-29(22)	15-12	0.7423	0.7329	0.740	.804 (6)	274.039 (7)	.853609 (7)	2.375 (7)	89.49 (9)	7.300 (9)

[VPI97]

FYI, factoring in the way the human polls stand as of this moment, if VT finishes the season as the CPU #1 and Texas finishes the season as the CPU #3, the Rose Bowl would be VT/USC.

Basically, VT needs for it's past opponents to win and for Texas's opponents to lose.

[OldGiants]

Originally Posted by cartman

Except for the fact that there is no offical NCAA recognized Div 1A national champion. Historically teams have been able to call themselves National Champion if they finished 1st in the various iterations of a nationally recognized coaches or sport writers poll.

What part of "not play for the national title" didn't you understand?