04-28-2009, 04:33 PM | #51 | |||
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Fixed that for you. There aren't enough people in the U.S. who can correctly spell fiscal to win an election by themselves. And even those who can spell the word don't always center their entire life around money.
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04-28-2009, 04:44 PM | #52 | |
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There will be no major new party until one of the current two collapses because we're conditioned to think in terms of two parties. However, the current crop of crazies who have hijacked the Republican party might well be collapsing if they keep deciding that the very best thing they can do is try and drive the moderates away. Palin/Bachmann '12 here we come! And even as a liberal, I think it is very important to have a serious opposition party so while the schadenfreude is sweet in a way it is also really kind of concerning in the long run.
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04-28-2009, 05:19 PM | #53 |
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Screw opposition party, lets get a boatload of them involved by getting proportional representation started. Not that that will happen in my lifetime, but one can dream....
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04-28-2009, 06:47 PM | #54 | |
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It has nothing-- no, that's not correct- but it has a hell of a lot more to do with campaign finance rules than voter's mindsets. Unless someone's about to put up, I dunno, at least $500M for this middle of the road party so they can run their campaigns. There's a reason why incumbents have a huge advantage, particularly in the House. It has something to do with name recognition but if you swapped incumbent and challenger money totals- that would buy a hell of a lot of name recognition for the challengers. And that $500M is probably a low number considering what it would cost to create a ground game in all 50 states. Again, this goes back to why I'm a huge fan of publicly funded elections. SI
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04-28-2009, 07:07 PM | #55 | |
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Ross Douthat in his first column for the NY Times had a great spin on this, basically positing that Cheney being the Republican nominee would have been the best for the party (since the Republicans couldn't say they were not conservative enough and that's why they lost): Op-Ed Columnist - Cheney for President - NYTimes.com
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04-28-2009, 11:41 PM | #56 | |
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I heard on CNN that some polls not theirs stated that only 21% of Americans (either nationwide or just PA not sure I missed that part of it) now label; themselves Republicans. No matter which it is 20%sure is not good. |
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04-29-2009, 12:40 AM | #57 | |
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You don;t delve deeply enough. Candidates do what they need to do to get elected. I can guarantee that candidates do not like to pony up to the money express. They do it because it gets them elected, but no one wants to be beholden to someone else. The reason that candidates need money is because voters vote money. Voters vote for the quick commercial spots, they vote the way a candidate appears, they vote the way someone who gave the candidate money (or vice versa) told them too. If voters in America would sit down with an issues list of candidates, then vote whoever was closest to their positions, or whomever was closest to one or two position they cared about, then candidates would spend more time talking about issues and would never need to drop millions of dollars to win. The money spent influences voters. If we simply had voters that would vote substance over flash, we would never need campaign finance reform. This is a problem the American voter has brought upon itself. Simply publicly financing campaigns means that flash is still what people vote on. Just the candidates are less beholden. It treats the symptom and not the cause. We will still elect lousy candidates. There are a lot of qualified public servants who would be great in office but they could never win a campaign because they lack the flash. That's the issue. Style over substance. That's why $$ wins. Change that, and you change the whole system. Keep that, and America has what it deserves.
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04-29-2009, 01:48 AM | #58 | |
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Yeah, there are a lot more registered Democrats than there are registered Republicans. All Dems need to do these days is get their voters to show up and they win. Take Pennsylvania for instance. There are 1 million more registered Democrats. The last Senate race had 4 million votes. That means any Republican candidate has to take a ton of votes from Democrats. |
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04-29-2009, 07:58 AM | #59 |
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This is pretty much a non-issue from where I stand. As everyone knows, Specter has been a RINO for some time. He's likely not going to change his voting stance much, even though he will be called a Democrat. This really doesn't affect the balance of power at all. If anything, he'll just be pissing off Democrats instead of Republicans when he doesn't hold the party line.
FWIW......I think he loses the upcoming election no matter which side of the fence he's on. |
04-29-2009, 08:05 AM | #60 | |
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I think as a Democratic candidate (and they are clearing the field for him) he's almost unbeatable.
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04-29-2009, 09:35 AM | #61 | |
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The difference is that he'll be feeling pressure from the left instead of the right. I doubt it changes things on a lot of issues, but when he shifts he'll now likely shift to the left instead of the right. The key, though, will be if he votes for cloture. That could make a very big difference.
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04-29-2009, 11:14 AM | #62 | |
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More importantly, it provides a good smoke screen if the Dems do have enough votes to block a filibuster. If it happens, all the criticism is going to come down on Specter and there's no doubt the Dems will let him take the bullet for them. Pretty smart move assuming they thought all of that out. |
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04-29-2009, 11:45 AM | #63 |
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If Obama campaigns for Specter, there's no way he loses the primary.
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04-29-2009, 12:09 PM | #64 | |
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The GOP largely consists of two groups: social conservatives and moderates. The Democrats also consist largely of two groups: social liberals and moderates. The social agenda-driven fringes of both parties are minorities yet they largely dictate the direction of both parties. The overwhelming majority of people are in the middle and they don't care about abortion, gay marriage or gun control either way to make a difference in their vote. A well-funded party where the core values are a balanced budget and the main issues are security, health care and education would dominate national politics in today's environment. |
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04-29-2009, 12:30 PM | #65 | ||
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Bush lost the 2008 election for the Republicans the moment he won in 2004 and sealed the deal he started in 2000 when he picked Cheney. Cheney already had health problems before 2000 and it was clear he would never been able to handle the rigor of a campaign. Plus, even though he served in the House back in the day, he's a horrible campaigner. Add to that he said from the get-go that he wouldn't run, and you instantly setup a scenario that once Bush left office in 2004 or 2008, there would be no self-identified front-runner for the nomination and it would be a party free-for-all. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Bush made a horrible choice in 2000. Cheney was in charge of Bush's VP selection team and he went to Bush and gave him one name for the ticket: former Missouri Sen. Jack Danforth. Instead, Bush asked Cheney and the rest is history. If Danforth were on the ticket in 2000, I think Bush/Danforth would have more comfortably won in 2000 -- Danforth is a much more effective campaigner and much more substantial. Plus, Danforth wouldn't have meddled in Iraq and the war and left that to the professional military. As you can tell I'm a pretty staunch Democrat. Jack Danforth is the only Republican I know I'd vote for president, and I would have done it in a heartbeat. |
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04-29-2009, 01:00 PM | #66 | ||
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I don't think there was a chance of that. After 8 years of Bush/Cheney, a Dem was going to win. The only thing was that Obama had to convince people that he was experienced enough. Nothing McCain did would have really changed that. Quote:
The attacks that the moderates lost the election are working to rally the base because they believe it and the moderates are... well, being moderates and not yelling or carrying on. Hell, even McCain is facing a primary challenge for 2010 (though very unlikely to succeed, unlike in PA)
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04-29-2009, 01:29 PM | #67 | |
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Not sure that's true or not. Let's assume he grabs, say, Romney as a running mate and had been running toward the middle, it's probably close. However, I think the bottom falling out of the economy and Bush presiding over that doomed whoever was running for the GOP. McCain might have had a shot but he didn't distance himself far enough from Bush in the last couple of years- heading closer than he had ever been politically. SI
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04-29-2009, 01:36 PM | #68 |
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Interesting thing about Danforth is that he was asked to help out with Bush's legal strategy in the 2000 election recount. However, he was emphatic that they not take the casse to federal court, because it went against the GOP's emphasis on state's rights. So they told him they didn't need him anymore.
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04-29-2009, 02:03 PM | #69 |
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Why does anyone who's not stupidly partisan care what faction a US senator belongs to?
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04-29-2009, 02:08 PM | #70 | |
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The Dems didn't think all of that out. We're not that devious. And as Specter himself said yesterday, changing parties will not mean that he will be a sure vote on anything. I will also say that Obama, Reid and Senate Dems will go out of their way to ensure that Specter does not have to take any political bullets over the next two years. |
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04-29-2009, 02:09 PM | #71 | |
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Not as a Democrat. I'm fairly certain the Dems cut a deal with him that they wouldn't put up anyone in the primaries. Obama has said he'll campaign for him as well. There is little chance he loses the Democratic primary. That's really all he has to worry about. Toomey will probably get the Republican nod unless Ridge runs, and Specter will slaughter Toomey. |
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04-29-2009, 02:19 PM | #72 | |
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If McCain had run the campaign he ran in 2000, Barack Obama would have soundly beaten Mitt Romney in the general election. You have to win your primary to be the nominee, and McCain never would have won that if he hadn't reversed his position on many of the things he supported back in 2000. If you want to understand why Specter returned to the Democratic Party after so many years on the other side, you can start by examining how McCain had to reinvent himself as a right winger in order to win the GOP primary. |
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04-29-2009, 02:30 PM | #73 | |
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The party will back Specter. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee -- the official campaign entity of the Caucus -- always backs its incumbent, of which Specter is now one. Likewise with the NRSC for the other side. But there is a Dem primary shaping up. The chair of the PA Board of Education said he's running as a Dem. Specter would likely beat Toomey again. Ridge as an opponent would be interesting. But I've got to think that labor will continue to support Specter, despite this EFCA problem, and that Obama and Governor Rendell, both pretty popular in PA, will be able to keep the left placated and turned out. Arlen is so darn prickly, however, that you just never know how constituents will respond. He could also get sick again and not run. |
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04-29-2009, 02:46 PM | #74 |
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04-29-2009, 03:20 PM | #75 | |
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Not to troll but since you put a speculative bet out there again, I'll state that your track record on calling these things seems to be awful.
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04-29-2009, 03:27 PM | #76 | |
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Do you think Sestak stays out now?
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04-29-2009, 03:38 PM | #77 |
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04-29-2009, 03:39 PM | #78 |
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04-29-2009, 06:57 PM | #79 | |
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Btw, the awesome:
Specter condemned Jim Jeffords' party switch in 2001 - Los Angeles Times Quote:
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04-29-2009, 10:04 PM | #80 |
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Heck who can blame him. His own party came hard at him last time around. The Republicans are crazy. This is a long time party member whose only failing is that he retained some semblance of his own opinion. He failed to drink the Kool-Aid, so the same right wing party insiders that brought us Bush and Cheney set their sites on him. How stupid can you be? He is a shoe in for that seat. He can deliver a guaranteed senate, yet there is no room for that guy in the Republican party. It makes a lot more sense to take him out in the primary with someone who will never reach 40% in the general election.
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04-29-2009, 10:10 PM | #81 | |
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I'm not so sure about McCain needing to change that much. The field was pretty darned weak, and the public was pretty soured on Bush era republicanism as it was. Man what I'd give to have had my dream scenario have come true in 2000. Gore wins, but the economy slumps ousting him in 2004, in favor of McCain who wins the Republican primary as the party hard liners understand why a right wing toady like Bush just can't win an election. Even against a loser like Gore. |
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04-29-2009, 10:13 PM | #82 |
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Recall that in 2000, Bush positioned himself as a moderate "Compassionate Conservative".
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04-29-2009, 10:13 PM | #83 | |
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But even against that weak field, McCain was dead in the water. His polls were in single digits, he was out of money, and campaign staff were abandoning him by the boatload. The fact he got the nomination is a great comeback, but how do you think he achieved that comeback? Why do you think, in the midst of Bush's plummeting approval ratings, he's giving an interview proudly boasting of how commonly he voted with Bush?
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04-29-2009, 10:23 PM | #84 | |
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Indeed. Lost in Obama's historic win is the fact that McCain staged one of the greatest political comebacks of all time. No one, probably not even himself, thought he'd get the nomination back in November of 2007. He was written off by every single person. Had no money. Staff abandoning him in droves (partially because he couldn't pay them, partially because they thought he was dead). Polling horribly. He should have left the race in December by all measures.
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04-29-2009, 10:53 PM | #85 |
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Wasn't it basically that him and Huckabee teamed up against Romney early on? They essentially traded support on Iowa and New Hampshire because it looked like otherwise, Romney would have won both and probably ran away to the nomination, iirc.
SI
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04-29-2009, 10:55 PM | #86 |
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It isn't a news flash that the GOP has swung hard to the right. It was what drove me from the party. I like the idea of conservative fiscal policy. I hate the idea of religion in government. Unfortunately, the GOP tries to force both and for that reason I hope they fail. Drop the religious nonsense and I could be brought back on board.
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04-29-2009, 11:40 PM | #87 |
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Any word out of Ed Rendell? Or is he basically going to let this go. He will certainly serve out some of specters term cause homeboy is not going to be alive in 5 years.
If we ever elect another statewide R I will be shocked. |
04-30-2009, 02:10 AM | #88 | |
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Parties do come after people from time to time. The Democrats went hard after Lieberman in 2006 simply because he disagreed with them on one major issue. I don't think this is a party specific case. However, it is plain fucking stupid on the Republican side. When the Dems tried to ouster Lieberman, it was in a liberal state that was going to elect the Democratic nominee regardless. In Pennsylvania, ousting Specter for a conservative like Toomey just guarantees a 20 point loss in 2010. The only Republican who stands a chance in the state are moderate ones. So I wouldn't call them crazy, just really fucking stupid. |
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04-30-2009, 10:11 AM | #89 | |
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Op-Ed in today's New York Times by Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME):
Quote:
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04-30-2009, 10:23 AM | #90 |
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I wonder how long it will be before her and Shaheen (R-NH) abandon the party?
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04-30-2009, 10:28 AM | #91 | |
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Shaheen is a Democrat. The other female Republican moderate is Susan Collins, also from Maine.
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04-30-2009, 10:30 AM | #92 | |
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That was on the website yesterday!
Today: Op-Ed Contributor - It’s Still My Party - NYTimes.com Quote:
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04-30-2009, 10:31 AM | #93 | |
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And the answer is never, as they won't have any problems getting re-elected unless a massive scandel hits.
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04-30-2009, 10:36 AM | #94 | |
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LOL
On First Day as Democrat, Specter (Again) Bucks His Party - washingtonpost.com Quote:
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04-30-2009, 10:52 AM | #95 |
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Knowing a fair bit about Senator Snowe, I'd guess she'd retire before she'd switch parties. I could maybe see her going Independent if the GOP continues its rightward lurch.
Neither Snowe nor Collins will lose their seats. Collins just defeated a pretty moderate Democrat (Tom Allen, former Congressman) who was supposed to give her a good challenge. She beat him by double-digits, and it was never close. And Snowe is a Maine institution. I'll be surprised if she even has a Democratic challenger in her next campaign (a challenger who isn't a sacrificial lamb). |
04-30-2009, 10:53 AM | #96 |
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Remind me, does the 60 number include Jeffords and Lieberman?
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04-30-2009, 10:55 AM | #97 | |
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whoops - my bad. that's what i meant. *egg on face*
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04-30-2009, 10:56 AM | #98 | |
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Yes, as well as the not yet seated Franken.
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04-30-2009, 11:00 AM | #99 |
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Then, in my opinion, it's sort of a false "filibuster-proof" majority. It's not like you can ram just anything through - there's going to be some stuff with which Liebermann, Specter, Jeffords, or other Democrats just won't agree. And Reid's just not a tough enough guy to make a threat of retribution for bucking the "party line" a real threat.
I think all it means is that the Senate GOP isn't going to be able to derail any "common-sense" or moderate legislation, but then again if said legislation was "common-sense" or moderate you'd likely have some moderate GOPers not voting against cloture anyway. So 60 is just a number. Not a magic number that suddenly lets you do anything, but a milepost on the road that says it's now incrementally easier to do something. |
04-30-2009, 12:22 PM | #100 | |
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I might be wrong, but I think it's more a matter of whether the GOP can fillibuster. There is no guarantee they'll get all 60 to vote for the bill, but I don't think it's common to have someone in your own party fillibuster it. The fillibuster is the main issue, not how the vote turns out. |
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