{Smacking Head} Volatility (Booms/Busts)

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by rexallllsc
How do you guys track their Current/Future year-to-year? Write it down?

I have a different save file at the end of every year. When I go to load game I see:

end of 2003
end of 2004
end of 2005
end of 2006
end of 2007
2008

(for example).

I have the hard drive space, so might as well hold onto them for a while. I have an FOF2001 career in 2133 with a save game for every season.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by SkyDog
He is (so far) steadily increasing in a few categories, but is consistently DECREASING in bump and run. What do y'all think is going to happen with him?

Just guessing obviously, but it looks like make a M2M jump and BNR drop are coming soon. It'd be interesting if we see boom/bust with individual skills..... would make things even more interesting.

[azjoe_02]

Bump....

[Ben E Lou]

Rexall:

I do exactly as cthomer. I do a savegame at the end of each season, both in TCY and in FOF's. At the beginning of each regular season, I do a "Save As" with the year of the season, and I do a regular save periodically during the season, saving over the game. I developed the saving-often-during-the-season habit because of how often FOF2K1/2 used to crash.

Example:

At the end of 2011, the LAST thing I do before advancing to next season is hit the regular save button, giving me a savegame with the title: "Falcons 2011" for the end of that year. Right after advancing to 2012, before looking at retirements or anything, I hit "Save As" and go with "Falcons 2012". Then, during the season, anytime I do anything important, I do a regular save, updating the "Falcons 2012" save. Finally, right before advancing to the next season, I hit the save button, giving me a final save of "Falcons 2012".....rinse...repeat....

[Ben E Lou]

NOTE: Originally, this was the beginning of a new thread. The two have now been merged.

I just drafted an OLB with the 4(22) pick. I just went to sign him, and looked at his bars. I KNOW they weren't that high in the draft. Anyone else seen this sort of thing???

[Huckleberry]

He must have had some great minicamps.

[Ben E Lou]

Post-camp:

A definite immediate break-out guy.

[cuervo72]

At least in FOF4, there was sometimes a discrepancy between ratings prior to drafting and after drafting, I believe this could be seen immediately by visiting the roster screen in-draft. This may also be the case in FOF2004.

Sometimes you could sense a pick wasn't going to work out and then redraft at the same position in the next round

[JonInMiddleGA]

Boom? I haven't seen.
Bust? Several that were pre-camp, all of which I had drafted.

[RPI-Fan]

You going to move him to DE SD?

[CubsFan915]

Originally posted by SkyDog

He is (so far) steadily increasing in a few categories, but is consistently DECREASING in bump and run. What do y'all think is going to happen with him?

Are you playing BNR coverage often? If not, his rating may be decreasing due to the fact that he's less familiar with it as time goes on.

Drool.....

[HornedFrog Purple]

I can't help picturing a Mormon going to a Methodist university for some reason.

[FrogMan]

Amazing fourth round pick! You all think the 97 volatility rating was the reason for him booming like that? Also, SkyDog, from the relative thinness of the blue bars in the first screenshot, I'd assume your scout is pretty good at evaluating linebackers, how good is he?

FM

[cthomer5000]

he has DE written all over him. Does he weigh enough?

[mckerney]

I've had a guy's blue bars drop right after the draft, so it does seem to happen.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Damn! That's one hell of a 4th round pick. Even before the Boom.

I have only run through two drafts so far, but I haven't anywhere near talent like this. To be honest, almost all of my draft picks have been absolutely awful. I had the #2 pick overall and he was pretty much a sure hit, but the rest have been rather underwhelming for the most part.

[Ben E Lou]

Responses to various comments/questions:

1. He is too small to play DE.

2. My scout is VG at both young talent and LB's.

3. HB, my point is that he didn't look like that when I first picked him. His "blue-bar ratings" went up after he was drafted, but before training camp.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Responses to various comments/questions:


3. HB, my point is that he didn't look like that when I first picked him. His "blue-bar ratings" went up after he was drafted, but before training camp.

Damn! Wow. Well, that's a horse of a different color. Pretty sure I haven't encountered that before.

He has a 6.8 Bureau Rating. That seems pretty high for a 4th rounder. Again, that could be my lack of FOF2004 drafting experience talking...

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CubsFan915
Are you playing BNR coverage often? If not, his rating may be decreasing due to the fact that he's less familiar with it as time goes on.

Drool.....

Good thought, but I am right now playing a good bit of bump and run.

Here's the update:

POST TRAINING CAMP 2013
Overall: 50/50(nc pot.)
M2M: 67 (+5 pot.)
Zone: 30 (+3 pot.)
Bump/Run: 35/45 (-2 pot.)
Diagnosis: 59/64 (+1 pot.)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Honolulu_Blue
He has a 6.8 Bureau Rating.

Right. The bureau rating changed too, I'm almost certain. Again, there's NO WAY, even if the computer had let him fall that far, that I would have let him fall that far, if he had these kinds of bars and ratings during the draft.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by QuikSand, in the other boom/bust thread
Back with FOF 4, someone did some research into the phenomenon of player development, and found a number of things:

/snip/

-"Boom" players take different forms, but many become evident right away, sometimes even before training camp. Often, these players will develop both current and potential ratings with playing time, and will evolve into players far better than they were originally forecasted to be.

I'm quite certain that this feature (some players seeing an adjustment either good or bad immediately upon being drafted) was in FOF 4, and has been carried over to FOF 2004.

[TroyF]

Skydog,

Didn't you read my post yesterday in your boom/bust thread? Wait, don't answer that.

Yes, I've seen this. My biggest "ethical" moment in the new game came when I drafted a DE in th esecond round who had pretty good potential. Right after the draft, his blue bars were nearly gone and his future potential was a 9. I really didn't want to give this guy a contract after I saw that. In the interest of realism I did. . . he sat inactive for two years until his cap figure was low enough to axe and he was gone.

TroyF

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I'm quite certain that this feature (some players seeing an adjustment either good or bad immediately upon being drafted) was in FOF 4, and has been carried over to FOF 2004.

But it's funny that without the new blue bars, many of us hadn't been looking at the draft that closely before, whereas now we are.

[Daimyo]

Why would you move that guy to DE? He's a perfect WLB (or any LB slot in a 4-3)! As long you gameplan such that he doesn't have to ever cover anyone, he's essentially maxed out.

[Daimyo]

DOLA, I've started making my picks from the 5th round on by sorting by current ratings and then picking the first guy with 95+ volatility and I've had a fair bit of breakouts... RB seem to be especially suited for this as they have the highest currents of any position in the draft and also the highest volatility (at least that's been my observation so far).

[RPI-Fan]

RB seem to be especially suited for this as they have the highest currents of any position in the draft and also the highest volatility (at least that's been my observation so far).

And this would match real life too...

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by cuervo72
But it's funny that without the new blue bars, many of us hadn't been looking at the draft that closely before, whereas now we are.

Probably some truth to that. Also, I'm sure that some of the people who dismissed FOF 4 as not having any new features are now discovering many of that game's features for the first time, as they have been carried over into FOF 2004.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Daimyo
Why would you move that guy to DE? He's a perfect WLB (or any LB slot in a 4-3)! As long you gameplan such that he doesn't have to ever cover anyone, he's essentially maxed out.

Alas - I don't think we have this level of detail in FOF 2004 -- you have no choice but to see this guy playing lots of time in zone coverage, where he's awful. I'm sure that's what is motivating the push for a position switch (however fruitless).

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Probably some truth to that. Also, I'm sure that some of the people who dismissed FOF 4 as not having any new features are now discovering many of that game's features for the first time, as they have been carried over into FOF 2004.

What is ironic is that I'm not one of those people who dismissed FOF4, although I freely admit that I didn't play it as much as the other Solecismic offerings. Apparently I just never noticed some things.

[cuervo72]

That's also why I'm surprised at what people haven't noticed, some things that I'd taken note of. But then my point of view was somewhat different, not having played any of the versions before FOF4.

[Ben E Lou]

Some of this may looking confusing now, as I'm merging this thread with the other thread regarding volatility, booms and busts, for ease of boom/bust reference in the future.

[Easy Mac]

Damn dog, its a saturday sleep

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Easy Mac
Damn dog, its a saturday sleep

Y'all should know by now that I am a *very* early riser. I almost never use an alarm clock either, even for 7 or 7:30am meetings (which I have about 10-12 times per month).

...and what is a college kid doing up at 7am on a Saturday? (or is it "Why haven't you gone to sleep YET?" )

[Easy Mac]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Y'all should know by now that I am a *very* early riser. I almost never use an alarm clock either, even for 7 or 7:30am meetings (which I have about 10-12 times per month).

...and what is a college kid doing up at 7am on a Saturday? (or is it "Why haven't you gone to sleep YET?" )

Nah, I was up all the night before writing papers, fell asleep at 5 pm b/c I was so tired, and slept all throught the evening. I feel sleeping 14 straight hours is ok.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Easy Mac
Nah, I was up all the night before writing papers, fell asleep at 5 pm b/c I was so tired, and slept all throught the evening. I feel sleeping 14 straight hours is ok.

Yikes!

[Anthony]

but the thing is - who really hangs on to players for like 5-6 years? you really gonna wait that long for a player to develop? the average career in the NFL is like 4-5 years tops.

i like that Jim implemented this into the game. realistically guys don't turn into future HOF or Ryan Leaf's after one training camp. what i also like about this is you can never write anyone off in the game anymore. if a guy can stick around for x amount of years, there's a chance the next team that gets him might strike gold.

rather you get guys like Rich Gannon or Ed McCaffery who turn the corner later on in their careers. very good job by Jim making it this way.

[Sharpie]

Tyrone Douglas went undrafted, and ended up becoming a 66/66 QB after 9 years. He started one year, and all the years before that he never started, but logged time as the kick holder.

Volatility-86

[GoSeahawks]

Speaking of volatility........

I drafted LDE Roman Behrendt in the 7th round of the 2004 draft. I picked him because he was rated 12/23 with a very high volatility.

After training camp he surprised the hell out of me as his rating shot up to 35/49. He started all season with just 20 tackles and 3.5 sacks, but I felt like I was on to something.

The next season in 2005 he was rated 38/50. Through six games had 8 tackles and 1 sack before going down with MCL damage. I knew it was a setback, but I hoped he could overcome the next season and come back strong.

In 2006 he dropped to 32/39 because of the injury. He still earned the stating spot because I refused to go out and get a better LDE during free agency. I really wanted him to be a late round surprise, but it was not meant to be. In the last game of preseason he went down with an MCL injury that required surgery. He missed the entire season.

After that, I decided not to resign him. It's now 2007 and he is sitting in the free agent pool at 15/18. It's sad, because I was really pulling for him. I wanted this story to be like the the others in this thread, but injuries held him back.

[Sidhe]

I've had a few breakouts now. Two of them occurred immediately after I pressed the "draft player" button. A center rated at 50 jumped to a 79 -- vol 54. A LDT rated in the 40s jumped to 75 -- vol 97. Another immediate jump I had went the other way -- a RCB rated 60 plummeted to 9 (I didn't mark down the vol rating). I did not sign him. You can actually press the "release" button on unsigned draftees, I found..

I once had a guy who was a marginal starter at LDT jump to a 79. I've had great success picking QBs in the later rounds. These guys are never great, but they are pretty good and I have made an industry of trading them for picks after a year or two. One of them has made a mighty jump to a 73. He was a 65 when I had him (made a modest jump right after I drafted him too). His volatility is 11.

Most of my big jumps have come at positions where my scout is rated either excellent or very good. It's not strong evidence, but I've got a hunch this is a factor.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by SkyDog
POST TRAINING CAMP 2012:
Overall: 39/50(+2 pot.)
M2M: 49/62 (+7 pot.)
Zone: 22/27 (+1 pot.)
Bump/Run: 32/47 (-2 pot.)
Diagnosis: 42/63 (-1 pot.)

Update on T.J. Wayne. Right now it is the beginning of 2018, he is my secondary leader now, in his 9th season. Here's how he looks. The first number in parenthesis is his change in potential rating since 2012 (last checked in). The second is the change since the end of his rookie year:

Overall: 54/54(+4, +8)
M2M: 74 (+12, +21)
Zone: 31 (+4, +6)
Bump/Run: 38/44 (-3,-7)
Diagnosis: 62/65 (+2,+5)

It would certainly appear then, that significant single-category improvement/decline is also a feature.

[Darkiller]

I think the main point is that EVERY picks are now valuable.
I will think twice before sending out a 6th or 7th round pick to the other team in a trade package because now I know I may eventually strike gold late in the draft.

I was amazed last night at how long it took me to run my first full serious draft. It's the first time in any FOF versions that I pay that much attention to so many details about my prospects...

[korme]

Wow, Lamont Borcherding was an undrafted player with high votality. Over the first few years, he slowly got a little better. Then in his 7th season he busted out to become a decent starter (49 overall).

In now his 12th season he has bloomed to become a premiere middle linebacker. I am almost stunned. He has 90's in many categories now and is 78 overall.

WOOT.

[Mark]

Does it appear that a player booming or busting later in their career is tied to playing time?

[azjoe_02]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
Wow, Lamont Borcherding was an undrafted player with high votality. Over the first few years, he slowly got a little better. Then in his 7th season he busted out to become a decent starter (49 overall).

In now his 12th season he has bloomed to become a premiere middle linebacker. I am almost stunned. He has 90's in many categories now and is 78 overall.

WOOT.

This, IMHO, was a much needed and awesome addition to the game. I have a 7th rd. draft pick, (RB) that was a breakout and are not only is my starter, but led the league in rushing (in only his 2nd year!). As DK stated, it makes every draft pick count. Besides that I can't make a good pick in the 2nd or 3rd round for nothin'. It seems all of them are getting cut after a couple years.

Mark - although I can't say for sure, I bet it has alot to do with playing time. If a guy can't get enough playing time, than how would he ever fulfil his potential?

[Tasan]

I keep finding myself picking low rating/high volatility guys all the time in the 6th and 7th now. I hate having to throw those picks into deals now. No breakouts yet, but I haven't gotten very far into any of my careers.

[Junior 19]

I know this is coming kind of late in the discussion, but with all the booms that have been written about how many of these players had mentors at their positions?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Junior 19

I know this is coming kind of late in the discussion, but with all the booms that have been written about how many of these players had mentors at their positions?

I've found that some do and some don't. I don't think mentors are directly related to this phenomenom (although I wouldn't be shocked to find out that the accelerate the process).

[wig]

Here's a new log to add to your fire.

I have a 3rd year CB that had a Current/Potential of 76/76 at week 1 of the regular season.

By week 10 he was a 90/90

?????

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by wig

Here's a new log to add to your fire.

I have a 3rd year CB that had a Current/Potential of 76/76 at week 1 of the regular season.

By week 10 he was a 90/90

?????

Did he play at all prior to that season?

[Franklinnoble]

dola... I think it's kind of cool, if these sort of late booms are deliberate.... after all, Stephen Davis wasn't remembered for anything but getting his ass kicked by Michael Westbrook for the first three years of his career....