Jimmy Graham Trade Value

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

But again you are setting the terms of what "good" even means so congrats you win. You did a nice job of stacking the deck in your favor.

A good receiver can cover up a QB's deficiencies to a degree but they can't make a QB good. Case in point: Anquan Boldin. Flacco was better with Boldin than without, but that doesn't mean Joe Flacco was good and that proved out when Boldin left.

Matt Stafford has put up some great numbers being paired with Johnson, but if Johnson gets hurt, Stafford turns back into a turd.

Drew Brees was a good QB before Graham ever showed up and will be a good QB if/when Graham leaves.

See the difference?

[BishopMVP]

I think arguing over whether he's a TE or WR from a trade perspective makes little sense. Receiving targets need to stand out in one of 3 areas - as a deep threat who can stretch defenses, as a red zone target, and as a space player who can get open underneath vs. 1v1 coverage. Graham fits the bill in 2 of those 3 categories. Other than the people arguing over his franchise tag who cares what he's listed at? Opposing DC's certainly don't

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Speaking as a Pats fan, he'd be perfect for the Patriot offense. Give me Gronk and Graham on the field, and you might as well reserve the AFC East for the Pats for the continued feature.

I'd go first/3rd as a first offer, to probably two firsts.

No way I'd give that up. Face it, for a deep threat we're pretty much reliant on Gronk staying healthy and/or Dobson/Thompkins developing. I could see them drafting Ebron (an Aaron Hernandez clone) in the 1st or maybe even ASJ (closer to Gronk with his blocking skills) in the 2nd, but I don't see us committing that many resources to a Graham or Jace Amaro that really can't block. Use the picks on the interior lines at that point.

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Then Moss went to New England, where Brady made HIM far better for a couple of years.

Brady didn't make Moss anything. Got him to try harder? Maybe, but Randy was running the same simplistic routes, he was just that much better than anyone else we've ever had at getting separation and catching deep balls in traffic (as opposed to catching balls over the middle in traffic, which he would rarely do). It's not a coincidence that Tom Brady "figured out how to throw a deep ball" when Moss was here and quickly "lost it" once he left.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Logan

How many times did some of the highest paid WRs line up as a tight end?

Probably less than half their plays. I'm assuming it is low, but don't pretend it never happens. I've seen slot guys go in motion and end up where a tight end would be. The real fault in all of this is the tagging system. It is antiquated at this point. At the end of the day, Graham spent slightly more than 61% of his plays as a WR. The Saints will have a hard time winning this one, IMO.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Probably less than half their plays. I'm assuming it is low, but don't pretend it never happens. I've seen slot guys go in motion and end up where a tight end would be. The real fault in all of this is the tagging system. It is antiquated at this point. At the end of the day, Graham spent slightly more than 61% of his plays as a WR. The Saints will have a hard time winning this one, IMO.

I think the fact that he's a real shitty blocker and was taken out during some short yardage plays points to him really being a WR.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Matt Stafford has put up some great numbers being paired with Johnson, but if Johnson gets hurt, Stafford turns back into a turd.

See the difference?

In other words something very similar to the Culpepper/Moss comparison which is what was being debated I thought?

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

In other words something very similar to the Culpepper/Moss comparison which is what were debating I thought?

I said a good receiver couldn't make a good QB. A good QB is someone who can carry a team if need be regardless of supporting cast.

It's apparent though that Moss didn't really make Culpepper a better QB. I think Culpepper came down to people figuring out he didn't have the head for complex defenses. Then once he had the knee injury that limited his mobility, it was over. He was a statue back there that couldn't read defenses.

Hell, I could probably have respectable numbers throwing the ball up to Moss or Johnson, it doesn't mean that I'm a good QB. If Stafford gets hurt, the next guy up will come in and throw the ball to Johnson as well and have respectable numbers. Doesn't mean he's a good QB either.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I said a good receiver couldn't make a good QB. A good QB is someone who can carry a team if need be regardless of supporting cast.

It's apparent though that Moss didn't really make Culpepper a better QB. I think Culpepper came down to people figuring out he didn't have the head for complex defenses. Then once he had the knee injury that limited his mobility, it was over. He was a statue back there that couldn't read defenses.

Hell, I could probably have respectable numbers throwing the ball up to Moss or Johnson, it doesn't mean that I'm a good QB. If Stafford gets hurt, the next guy up will come in and throw the ball to Johnson as well and have respectable numbers. Doesn't mean he's a good QB either.

I think even good qbs need a good supporting cast to be productive. Even an elite QB like Brady looked average early this year with his group of crappy WRs, missing his 2 TEs and best pass catching RB. I think good qbs can make average wrs look good just as I think a good wr can make an average qb look good. I certainly think QB is the most important position on the field but I think good positional players can change the game also.

So I think this entire debate is kind of messed up. Brees would still be a good QB but he wouldnt be near as productive without good weapons. In the NFL they care more about production(scoring points) more than how good someone is.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Probably less than half their plays. I'm assuming it is low, but don't pretend it never happens. I've seen slot guys go in motion and end up where a tight end would be. The real fault in all of this is the tagging system. It is antiquated at this point. At the end of the day, Graham spent slightly more than 61% of his plays as a WR. The Saints will have a hard time winning this one, IMO.

There really should be a different tag with all around TE vs. receiving TD. Jimmy isn't a TD under any stretch of the imagination.

On the other side, which has been brought up earlier, he would not have been an automatic pro bowl selection at WR. He would have been 8th in yards and 5th in catches. I would have still voted for him in there, but it wouldn't have been a 100% sure thing. Jeffery didn't get in until Megatron pulled out and he had better all around numbers than Graham.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Sometimes lined up as a Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps he played last year. I would argue that if you play a guy at Wide Receiver 61% of the snaps you play him, that calling him anything other than that is a ploy to save money as a team.

EDIT: He played 271 offense snaps last season. He lined up as a slot Receiver and/or split out wide as the lone receiver to that side 166 snaps, lined up as a tight end 105 snaps according to ESPN.

I think you might want to check those numbers. Jimmy Graham played in 755 offensive snaps in 2013.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Brady didn't make Moss anything. Got him to try harder? Maybe, but Randy was running the same simplistic routes, he was just that much better than anyone else we've ever had at getting separation and catching deep balls in traffic (as opposed to catching balls over the middle in traffic, which he would rarely do). It's not a coincidence that Tom Brady "figured out how to throw a deep ball" when Moss was here and quickly "lost it" once he left.

As you said, Moss was running the same simplistic routes. Brady was a QB who could get him the ball in the right place, so Moss looked good again. I'm sure Brady enjoyed having a guy like Moss, but I'm sure you agree that Moss didn't make Brady an appreciably better QB. Same QB, but a better weapon to throw to.

Though I love how some theories don't fit the facts. Yes, Brady's YPA and YPC jumped considerably in 2007 when Moss arrived. Yet Moss was gone by 2010 and Brady's YPC is still the same from 2010 - 2012 as it was in that 2007 season. So I don't know about how Brady couldn't throw the deep ball (actually, I never heard that complaint about Brady at all).

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I think even good qbs need a good supporting cast to be productive. Even an elite QB like Brady looked average early this year with his group of crappy WRs, missing his 2 TEs and best pass catching RB. I think good qbs can make average wrs look good just as I think a good wr can make an average qb look good. I certainly think QB is the most important position on the field but I think good positional players can change the game also.

So I think this entire debate is kind of messed up. Brees would still be a good QB but he wouldnt be near as productive without good weapons. In the NFL they care more about production(scoring points) more than how good someone is.

On this point we agree. Even a QB needs guys around him to maximize his productivity.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

As you said, Moss was running the same simplistic routes. Brady was a QB who could get him the ball in the right place, so Moss looked good again. I'm sure Brady enjoyed having a guy like Moss, but I'm sure you agree that Moss didn't make Brady an appreciably better QB. Same QB, but a better weapon to throw to.

Moss did make Brady an appreciably "better" QB on long throws partly because he could adjust and catch them, but mostly because he would be either be open by multiple steps or he had helped everyone else (including Brady) because he drew double coverage over the top, opening up the underneath. Just like a Gronk or Graham does going up the seam, or a Calvin Johnson does on the outside.

At the same time, claiming Brady "made" Moss is hysterical - he didn't make him any better than Moss was with Culpepper, old Jeff George, or old Randall Cunningham. Even Matt Cassel looked cromulent with Randy Moss at WR. Moss sucked in 2006 because he wasn't trying, but the rest of the time he made average QB's good and very good QB's great.

Though I love how some theories don't fit the facts. Yes, Brady's YPA and YPC jumped considerably in 2007 when Moss arrived. Yet Moss was gone by 2010 and Brady's YPC is still the same from 2010 - 2012 as it was in that 2007 season. So I don't know about how Brady couldn't throw the deep ball (actually, I never heard that complaint about Brady at all).

Brady's 2nd and 3rd highest YPC of his career were in 2004/2005. 2006 was an anomaly on the low side, mostly due to Brady's best receivers being Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson and Doug Gabriel. But YPC isn't really a measure of long passes - there's different ways to stretch a defense, and Brady's always been best at hitting guys up the seam in stride, not dropping in long bombs. (Not coincidentally, 2010 marked the debut of Gronk a.k.a. the best player at going up the seam possibly ever.)

The knock on Brady having a poor deep ball has been a common, if somewhat overblown, talking point since he entered the league - ask any Pats fan or a TroyF or stevew who follows an AFC rival. At first it was that he didn't have the arm strength, which is patently false. Then it became a knock on his accuracy, which does have some truth to it - most of those Moss bombs Moss had to adjust to, and Brady's missed a ton of sideline deep balls every year. I'd love to see more of these charts for every year, but this is the best I could find quickly - FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Tom Brady

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

I think you might want to check those numbers. Jimmy Graham played in 755 offensive snaps in 2013.

You are right. I guess I plucked bad numbers from the article. The real numbers play out as 291 plays as a TE, 395 plays from the slot, 191 plays lined out wide. Apparently those numbers are straight from ESPN Stats & Info and Pro Football Focus. Our numbers still don't match, so here is my source.

hxxp://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/4598/jimmy-graham-tight-end-or-receiver

[stevew]

Originally Posted by TroyF

There really should be a different tag with all around TE vs. receiving TD. Jimmy isn't a TD under any stretch of the imagination.

On the other side, which has been brought up earlier, he would not have been an automatic pro bowl selection at WR. He would have been 8th in yards and 5th in catches. I would have still voted for him in there, but it wouldn't have been a 100% sure thing. Jeffery didn't get in until Megatron pulled out and he had better all around numbers than Graham.

They should just lump all receivers under one tag and all backs under another.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by stevew

They should just lump all receivers under one tag and all backs under another.

So Fullbacks should get the same franchise number as Adrian Peterson? Not that a Fullback is ever going to be franchised, but...

I don't honestly see how this is even an issue. Graham is a huge outlier here - who else is there that really pushes the bounds of WR versus TE? Gronk? Leave things the way they are.

[stevew]

Fullbacks are lumped in with running backs already. centers/guards and tackles are lumped together as well.

[stevew]

re: Brady
I love it when he hits the Steelers aging defense up for 2-3 deep tbag TDs. Shows exactly how much our head has been buried under the sand in player development over the past 6 years.

[TroyF]

Bishop is dead on about Brady. He's never been a great deep ball artist. He simply kills you with his short to medium range passes. His WR/TE/RB in stride on those 11-20 yard routes.

Since 2011, Brady has completed 52 passes when the ball has traveled 21 yards or more through the air. Manning has completed 52 as well. Manning missed the entire 2011 season and people were making fun of his wobbly passes for about 2/3 of last season. Simply put, Brady throws a poor deep ball and always has. (he was much better at that with Moss and it shows in the overall numbers)

This doesn't mean he isn't a hall of fame QB. Nor does it mean Patriots fans should hate him. It's just a pretty standard fact with the guy. When you play the Patriots, the last thing you worry about with their offense is that they'll burn you deep. The amazing thing about Brady is that even knowing Brady doesn't like throwing the deep ball, they still can be unstoppable when they have everyone healthy. Rip Hernandez and Gronk from Brady? he's still good, but he isn't dominant anymore and can be beat.

I'm surprised anyone is surprised at the Brady deep ball issue. It's been known about and discussed in advanced metrics circles for years.