2017 Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, and 3yo Thoroughbred Races

[QuikSand]

CD lets people start betting the Derby on Friday, so we have early intel on odds movement. Not at all definitive, but by the end of the day Friday, it's usually safe to start talking about who is coming down, or moving up, with some reliability.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...erby-live-odds

As of 12:30 (super early):

Odds coming down: GUNNEVERA at 9, ALWAYS DREAMING at 4

Odds moving up: CLASSIC EMPIRE at 6, TAPWRIT at 38, J BOYS ECHO at 44

[QuikSand]

Race #12 05/05/2017
*Derby Advance
$0.50 Trifecta
# 5,8,10,16
WT # 5,8,10,13,14,16,17
WT # 5,8,10,13,14,16,17
$60.00

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Quick note for anyone following my voluminous text here. murrayyyyy is a better handicapper than I am, I'm fairly certain.

Not really, I just gamble a lot and I seem to be one of the few who think Gormley will sit down behind IWC and have a good shot on a not so perfect track. I do think if the Ark Derby was a week earlier that CE would be the favorite. Also hate the layoff for Hatch but no one seems to be looking at that base off his runs as of late.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

CD lets people start betting the Derby on Friday, so we have early intel on odds movement. Not at all definitive, but by the end of the day Friday, it's usually safe to start talking about who is coming down, or moving up, with some reliability.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...erby-live-odds

As of 12:30 (super early):

Odds coming down: GUNNEVERA at 9, ALWAYS DREAMING at 4

Odds moving up: CLASSIC EMPIRE at 6, TAPWRIT at 38, J BOYS ECHO at 44

Everyone I know has Gunnevera in their tri-box and a lot of people I've talked to has him to win.

[murrayyyyy]

And showing how things can go the opposite of what you think I figured the 3 horses I liked in the Oaks was Paradise Woods with Farrell or Every So Clear underneath. No one is putting money on ESC.

[TCY Junkie]

I'd like to see Classic Empire win but with that missed training and stuff, I'd need higher odds......Although a few spots inside would be much better, Irish War Cry is my top pick. A race I actually might hit is race before, Divisidero seems to love this turf and setup is perfect for his running style. Of course he just lost an allowance race and now is favorite in Grade 1 so probably not only one to see this.

[QuikSand]

So, with 2/3 of a million bet today, it looks like ALWAYS DREAMING may indeed be your Derby favorite, he's dropped to 4-1 as of now. CLASSIC EMPIRE has drifted up to 7-1, behind both IWC and MCCRAKEN. I don't think that's justified. I don't mind him being the second choice, but fourth seems unreasonable to me.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Everyone I know has Gunnevera in their tri-box and a lot of people I've talked to has him to win.

Guess he's the wise guy horse... I felt sure it would be HENCE.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Guess he's the wise guy horse... I felt sure it would be HENCE.

It still may be Hence as there is no reason to it in early. Everyone is jumping on Patch and I think it will continue to drop his price tomorrow.

Didn't watch the Oaks yet but holy snickers, look at that $1 Superfecta.

[Arles]

Always Dreaming is 9-2, IWC is at 5-1, McCraken is at 6-1 and Classic Empire is 7-1. I can't remember a Derby where the top 4 were this close. Granted they are longshots, but J Boys Echo at 44-1 and Battle of Midway at 38-1 seem like good fliers. If the weather is bad (60% chance for rain), Gormley (24-1) and Tapwrit (29-1) may see the top 3.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, with 2/3 of a million bet today, it looks like ALWAYS DREAMING may indeed be your Derby favorite, he's dropped to 4-1 as of now. CLASSIC EMPIRE has drifted up to 7-1, behind both IWC and MCCRAKEN. I don't think that's justified. I don't mind him being the second choice, but fourth seems unreasonable to me.

Think most horses should be over 10 / 1 except IWC and Classic Empire. Besides them i like longer shots. Kinda busy so didn't get much time to look at all the info you posted.but wanted to say thanks for putting it here easy to find.

[murrayyyyy]

The dreaded change my bet in line last night.

Ended up with $10 exacta key
14 key over 5,7,10,12,15,17,18

Probably $70 down the toilet but CE's drop in odds made me change my mind as an exact should pay off.

[weegeebored]

Anyone have a link to free DRF pps for the Derby? I need the Beyers for a method I'm researching. I would pay the $1.50 but don't feel like registering with DRF for one file.

Found this web-based version: Didn't work with Firefox, but was ok with IE. Loading Formulator Web

[Arles]

Yeah, given the odds movement,I put in a 8-14-17 exacta box. I'll be doing more exotic stuff closer to post.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

Anyone have a link to free DRF pps for the Derby? I need the Beyers for a method I'm researching. I would pay the $1.50 but don't feel like registering with DRF for one file.

Found this web-based version: Didn't work with Firefox, but was ok with IE. Loading Formulator Web

Loading Formulator Web

I then just saved it to my g-drive using print function.

[Arles]

Just did this trifecta:

14,17/8,14,15,17/8,11,13,15

My offshore also does point in time futures. So, I got Irish War Cry at +735 yesterday.

[weegeebored]

Going to try this trifecta play: 14,15,17/5,8,14,15,17/1,5,8,9,15 -- $48 per unit. I might dabble in a Superfecta...we'll see.

Best of luck all.

[EagleFan]

Just some small bets:

Tri: 4,10,14,17
Ex: 10,14,15,17
Ex: 5,10,15,17

For my wife:
ex: 2,5

My only wagering of the year.

[EagleFan]

Oh, I had a pick 3 and a daily double but they were both blown up already.

[Suicane75]

Track is muddy. That help Tapwrit at all?

[sovereignstar v2]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Track is muddy. That help Tapwrit at all?

[Suicane75]

So you're saying I'm gonna win?

[CrescentMoonie]

I think I had every favorite other than the 5 on my tickets.

[EagleFan]

That sucked.

[QuikSand]

First of all... interesting race. I'm not gong to buy that the track condition was a major player - I think the best horse won. The early pressure was not very strong after all (the 3 tried but failed to get in front of the 6, and any chance of a meltdown lead battle ended right there). With that, you had both the 5 and the 17 in perfectly comfortable position to stalk an easy lead and be strong at the end. The 17 was in position (did you see the jockey look back behind him on the second turn, usually signaling that he thinks he's a serious player?) but failed to find the gear he needed. Nobody from way back really made much of a move (Classic Empire and Tapwrit minor exceptions) and as long as the one "quality" horse toward the front could hang on, he was totally in control. Hats off to your 3-5 morning line Preakness favorite, ALWAYS DREAMING.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

My still-evolving board:

A (top contenders, have to use)

IRISH WAR CRY
CLASSIC EMPIRE

B (hoping for good value)

GUNNEVARA
HENCE
ALWAYS DREAMING
TAPWRIT
MCCRAKEN
THUNDER SNOW

C (bombers worth using)

LOOKIN AT LEE
J BOYS ECHO

By race time, I had winnowed this group down a lot for affordability purposes. The good news was I decided to completely toss out Thunder Snow and downgraded Classic Empire and Gunnevara a good deal. The other good news is I pushed Always Dreaming into my top tier (mostly based on great workouts), and ended up betting him even more than Irish War Cry, whom I liked more two weeks ago. The bad news is I didn't really follow up on my interest in Lookin at Lee, and didn't use him in very many bets. I generally acknowledged Battle of Midway as being pretty game in the SA Derby, but honestly didn't see him rating and hanging like he did, and didn't bet him at all.

So, I cashed a $1 exacta, but ended up down for the race. Not a terrible toll (and some hits elsewhere on the day helped ease the sting) but not really the smash that I was (eternally) hoping for.

I think a *lot* of this field will sit out the Preakness, let a few fresh shooters take their shot at the champ, and aim toward the Belmont.

[SackAttack]

What was going on with that horse at the back right out of the gate? He looked like he was cosplaying a bull at a rodeo.

[QuikSand]

Well, it sounds like he was not injured, which looked like a possibility. Thunder Snow seemed to step awkwardly, maybe didn't like the wet surface, and just decided he wasn't into the idea of racing. Unusual.

[JPhillips]

I know nothing about racing or betting, but the Woodford Reserve race was fantastic. It looked like the winner came from last place.

[QuikSand]

There could be quite a bit of early speed in the Preakness field, if things shape up - that could actually give AD a tougher time to win from toward the front than he had in the Derby (unusual for the Preakness/Pimlico, where early speed is often a strong angle).

MALAGACY and BATTALION RUNNER are both early speed horses who opted out of the Derby, likely thinking Preakness. ROYAL MO didn't draw in, but he too is likely for Preakness. All three of them are toward-the-lead types.

Initially, I had pegged a 5 week break for horses like LOOKIN AT LEE, CLASSIC EMPIRE, and TAPWRIT... but maybe one or two of the better off-the-pace guys will see what I'm seeing now (a potential early speed burnout situation) and give it a shot. THUNDER SNOW maybe?

[Kodos]

I was over at my Dad's and he had the race on. It struck me that horse racing has the worst entertainment/waiting ratio of any major sport. Soooo much sitting around in between short races. The funny thing was after a couple hours of waiting, my Dad fell asleep during the actual race.

I'm sure Quik knows the answer to this: Why is betting legal in horse racing but not in other sports? It was so weird to see commercials for betting.

Anyhow, there are my ignorant non-horse-racing fan comments and questions. My apologies in advance.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm sure Quik knows the answer to this: Why is betting legal in horse racing but not in other sports? It was so weird to see commercials for betting.

Anyhow, there are my ignorant non-horse-racing fan comments and questions. My apologies in advance.

Quick answer is because it's a parimutuel system. Winners are paid from the betting pool after the track gets a small cut. Therefore the track isn't moving odds to influence bets and you get whatever the final odds are when the race starts, not what it was when you bet. Tracks don't care who wins the race as long as people are betting where as other sports gambling moves the odds so they aren't exposed to one team.

[SackAttack]

So if you place a bet at 40/1, and the horse is down to 5/1 when the gun goes off, he pays at 5/1, not what you bet at?

[digamma]

Correct.

There are some sports books that let you bet time of bet odds or futures odds on races, but if you are betting through the track (on or off track), you get the final odds.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

So if you place a bet at 40/1, and the horse is down to 5/1 when the gun goes off, he pays at 5/1, not what you bet at?

Parimutuel betting - Wikipedia

See if this copy and paste works. This is why Quik was showing the live odds because they were adjusting with regards to the formula below.

Consider a hypothetical event which has eight possible outcomes, in a country using a decimal currency such as dollars. Each outcome has a certain amount of money wagered:

1 $60.00
2 $140.00
3 $24.00
4 $110.00
5 $220.00
6 $94.00
7 $300.00
8 $80.00

Thus, the total pool of money on the event is $1028.00. Following the start of the event, no more wagers are accepted. The event is decided and the winning outcome is determined to be Outcome 4 with $110.00 wagered. The payout is now calculated. First the commission or take for the wagering company is deducted from the pool; for example with a commission rate of 14.25% the calculation is: $1028 × 0.1425 = $146.49. This leaves a remaining amount of $881.51. This remaining amount in the pool is now distributed to those who wagered on Outcome 4: $881.51 / $110.00 = 8.01 ≈ $8 per $1 wagered. This payout includes the $1 wagered plus an additional $7 profit. Thus, the odds on Outcome 4 are 7-to-1 (or, expressed as decimal odds, 8.01).

Prior to the event, betting agencies will often provide approximates for what will be paid out for a given outcome should no more bets be accepted at the current time. Using the wagers and commission rate above (14.25%), an approximates table in decimal odds and fractional odds would be:

1 14.69 13:1
2 6.30 5:1
3 36.73 35:1
4 8.01 7:1
5 4.01 3:1
6 9.38 8:1
7 2.94 2:1
8 11.02 10:1

In real-life examples, such as horse racing, the pool size often extends into millions of dollars with many different types of outcomes (winning horses) and complex commission calculations.

Sometimes, the amounts paid out are rounded down to a denomination interval—in the United States and Australia, 10¢ intervals are used. The rounding loss is sometimes known as breakage and is retained by the betting agency as part of the commission.

In horse racing, a practical example of this circumstance might be when an overwhelming favorite wins. The parimutuel calculation results might call for a very small winning payout (say, $1.02 or $1.03 on a dollar bet), but the legal regulation would require a larger payout (e.g., $1.10 on a dollar bet). In North America, this condition is usually referred to as a minus pool.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm sure Quik knows the answer to this: Why is betting legal in horse racing but not in other sports? It was so weird to see commercials for betting.

Short answer here is this is a matter for each state to decide. With a few exceptions (like sports betting), the feds stay out of this, and it's up to each state what sort of gaming activities are legal/illegal. The recent growth in casino gambling has been state by state (in Maryland, and in several other states, it took constitutional amendments to get moving).

Now...how can you bet legally online or via phone? It's a combination of court opinions and state law changes. When you set up an account through DRF.com or TVG.com or the others advertising legal wagering, what you're actually doing is setting up a proxy betting account in their host state. Somehow the pols/lawyers sorted out that this interstate communications doesn't violate any federal laws, so that's what's going on. When I make a bet through DRF.com, I believe I'm technically using an account housed in Oregon, that money (through various state laws) is commingled with the main betting pools from the home track in Kentucky (for Churchill Downs) and both the sending and receiving state get some haircut in taxes/fees from the track takeout.

[Kodos]

Thanks for the explanation.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

There could be quite a bit of early speed in the Preakness field, if things shape up - that could actually give AD a tougher time to win from toward the front than he had in the Derby (unusual for the Preakness/Pimlico, where early speed is often a strong angle).

MALAGACY and BATTALION RUNNER are both early speed horses who opted out of the Derby, likely thinking Preakness. ROYAL MO didn't draw in, but he too is likely for Preakness. All three of them are toward-the-lead types.

Initially, I had pegged a 5 week break for horses like LOOKIN AT LEE, CLASSIC EMPIRE, and TAPWRIT... but maybe one or two of the better off-the-pace guys will see what I'm seeing now (a potential early speed burnout situation) and give it a shot. THUNDER SNOW maybe?

Well, this pace setup just didn't happen. Royal Mo, Battalion Runner, and Malagacy all passed on the Preakness. That leaves ALWAYS DREAMING and the farthest outside horse at #10 CONQUEST MO MONEY as the only fairly serious early speed in the Preakness field later today.

I'm surprised that bettors aren't all that enthusiastic about ALWAYS DREAMING, and I might even end up with a win ticket on him if he drifts up over 8/5 (probably not). I think the setup is great for him to win here, unless he's just plain tired out, which is possible. CLASSIC EMPIRE is going to be the second choice, but I don't think the pace setup helps him here, and he comes off even less rest pre-Derby than AD.

I am definitely going to play an early-speed-holds ticket with a ExBox on the 4-10, and I will likely use those two over a series in more exotics. I don't have a super strong feeling about this race, but I think GUNNEVERA and possibly HENCE should have skipped it and just targeted the Belmont in 3 weeks. I'll likely be cashing a nice triple if it comes in 4-10-bomber, as I'm going to cover all the nobodies in that third slot (and maybe the second as well, 4-*-10).

[QuikSand]

...oh, and I have pick-5 and pick-4 tickets alive today, ending with the 4 or 10 in the Preakness. If the next two winners are logicals, I will have a heightened interest there, too. My key horse in the 10th won for fun, though at a shorter price than I had hoped (10-1 in the morning line, went off around 5).

[murrayyyyy]

I'm going down with CE but took a h2h bet against AD for 8/5 instead of betting CE to win.

[QuikSand]

7-5 for AD and 2-1 for CE... wow. Would never have guessed they'd be that close.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

7-5 for AD and 2-1 for CE... wow. Would never have guessed they'd be that close.

Allegedly ce has looked really good all week from what I've read. I think they will post a really slow time today.

[murrayyyyy]

For once i played the safer odds and it paid off.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

For once i played the safer odds and it paid off.

Was thinking of you as the match race dissolved. Nice work.

[QuikSand]

Okay, at a level not easily seen on the TV coverage (which rightfully focused on the leaders and big late movers), the race was very heavily affected by a trivial thing at the outside gate.

Horse 10 Conquest Mo Money was supposed to be the major pace factor - even breaking from the outside, he was the most lead-inclined horse in the field. The thing is, when you're that far outside, and you want to press the action early, you really have little room for error. Especially with the Preakness configuration, where the first turn comes up pretty quickly.

So, the 10 loads awkwardly and late, bobbles dramatically as they open, and veers outward immediately. If he's the 2 horse, maybe he has a shot to recover from that. As the 10, he's done. Jorge has to decide what to do - totally cook him by pushing him super hard to the lead, or to let him fall back to 5th/6th and see whether he might be able to pass others later. For this horse, neither is a winning formula. He's basically got no shot.

But the point isn't that it took the 10 out of the race. The 10 was the horse who was expected to keep the early pace honest. Th first half mile at something like, say, 45.2-45.5 seconds, would be an honest pace expected to wear on the leaders. If the 10 gets to the front and runs that quickly, then the 4 and 5 (who were going to run together no matter what, it now seems) would likely have been pressured to run more early... they might have been a few fifths within the leader, so maybe they run the half mile in something like 46 flat. (I think the time in today's race was 46.9, which is pretty darned slow).

With the early leaders unhurried (Cloud Computing wasn't interested in forcing anything) there's no real excuse for either of them fading. They were the two most respected horses, and got a dream setup. They should have finished the race 1-2 with nobody else challenging them. Always Dreaming was either injured, or simply not up to a quick turnaround like this two week layoff. (Neither bodes well for him to run back in the Belmont, home crowd notwithstanding)

Given that pace, it also really flatters Cloud Computing that he ran down Classic Empire. CE ran a fine race, tactically, and looked to have it. It looked like CC just got strong at the end, but I suspect what we will see is that CE faded and there just weren't any movers other than the winner to take serious advantage. The longshot who rallied strong to grab third was a standard "had too much to do" situation, common with a slow early pace.

"Pace makes the race," some say. Here, it really changed things. I think the best horse today won today, but the tote boar could have looked really really different had the 10 horse set a quicker pace and made the 4/5 combo work harder earlier -- you might have seen a legitimate shot from horses like Gunnevera or I guess Senior Investment.

[murrayyyyy]

Ad also didnt react well to the bump coming out of turn 4.

The biggest factor that made me go h2h instead of the win was it was ce's third race in 42 days. Im not even sure he should be run in the next one. I will have him out of all my tickets. 2nd race i think that the jockey and trainer had completely opposite ideas/views on how to run the race.

10 was the other i was looking at but like quik said, when he took way to long to get in the gates i knew he was in trouble.

[QuikSand]

If not for AD's connections to the NY area, I would fully expect both AD and CE to skip the Belmont, leaving that field potentially wide open. No particular reason for Chad Brown to run CC there, either. That leaves who as your favorite? Gunnevera? Tapwrit? State of Honor? McCraken? Seriously, anyone's guess. Could be the least inspiring field in years, by outward measures.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If not for AD's connections to the NY area, I would fully expect both AD and CE to skip the Belmont, leaving that field potentially wide open. No particular reason for Chad Brown to run CC there, either. That leaves who as your favorite? Gunnevera? Tapwrit? State of Honor? McCraken? Seriously, anyone's guess. Could be the least inspiring field in years, by outward measures.

That was my thought too. No reason for either AD or CE to run the bruising Belmont now. There's bound to be a passel of horses that were waiting for the chance to do it that will have that chance now.

[QuikSand]

Newsday is actually predicting a big field, including (apparently) Classic Empire, but neither of the two race winners.

Belmont Stakes field could reach double digits | Newsday

I suppose the public might make CE the race favorite, but I'd think you'd see some legit money coming in on LOOKING AT LEE and SENIOR INVESTMENT, following the standard logic that the closing-fast horse is bound to get there next time, with a longer course to pilot.

[murrayyyyy]

The Washington Post is in the know... Still haven't corrected the article.

Kentucky Derby winner Classic Empire to skip Belmont Stakes
By Associated Press May 26 at 4:36 PM

Kentucky Derby winner Classic Empire to skip Belmont Stakes - The Washington Post

[PilotMan]

lol