Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

well thats about as wrong as one can be in this thread.

1-batman - 26m
2-pineapple express - 22.4m (40.4 m in the 5 day)

marijuana doesnt sell. lesson learned.

[larrymcg421]

Yeah I was way high on Pineapple Express, but 22m is still pretty big for an R-rated comedy and I think it will have legs. I did get Dark Knight right on the money, though. It's now #3 all-time and will #2 by next weekend.

[Pyser]

tropic thunder opens tomorrow. should have broader appeal than pineapple express, which has made me gun shy

3 day: 35m
5 day: 59m

[larrymcg421]

Tropic Thunder

3 day: 42m
5day: 60m

Dark Knight down to 15m

[Lorena]

This weekend: Tropic Thunder, Clone Wars, and Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen Film)

I think Tropic Thunder will be the favorite this weekend at 52 million.

[larrymcg421]

Way high on Tropic Thunder, but I was only 2m off on Dark Knight.

[Pyser]

im a bit surprised tropic thunder was that low. it was actually good, unlike pineapple express. oh well. blockbuster season is over.

[Pyser]

dola, it made 26m over the weekend, and 37m since wed.

[Pyser]

the rocker opens today. on friday: death race, house bunny, and the longshots.

im leaning towards rocker for the 3 day (screw the 5 day)...but i think death race may be up there, too. there hasnt been a straight up action movie in a while.

[Pyser]

i think too many kids things are opening for the rocker to take it. im going death race, at 19m.

[Buccaneer]

No one is seeing The Rocker, which is probably a good thing.

[Pyser]

i learned a good lesson this week. if nothing looks decent, expect a repeat.

tropic thunder wins at 16.1.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

No one is seeing The Rocker, which is probably a good thing.

2.7m and a 12th place finish! yikes. rainn wilson, you have a long way to go, sir

[Pyser]

a whole mess of bad movies open today, from babylon ad to college to disaster movie. there are so many comedies out there, its crazy. it'll be a sub-20m winner again this week, the choices for me being tropic thunder, babylon ad, and disaster movie.

babylons the pick. i would have gone with disaster movie, until i remembered theres about 7 comedies to choose from right now. 17m over the 4 day weekend.

[Pyser]

so much for taking my own advice last week

tropic thunder wins the 4 day at 14.3m

[Pyser]

bangkok dangerous opens this week against nothing. its gotta win by default, tropic thunder should be down to 10m or under.

bangkok - 15m.

[Pyser]

wow, close week. fascinating

1-bangkok - 7.8m
2-tropic - 7.5m

[Karlifornia]

That had to be one of the worst weekends for movies.

[Pyser]

opening this week:

righteous kill
the women
burn after reading
tyler perrys the family that preys


i want to pick burn after reading, but think righteous kill will probably win out, even though its supposed to be nothing but absolutely terrible. total posted on friday

[Pyser]

ill go 16m on righteous kill. if tyler perry was on more screens, that wouldve been the pick, in retrospect

[Pyser]

wow, burn after reading takes it at 19.4. tyler perry was 2nd at 18m. good for the coen brothers.

righteous kill made 16.5, so i was right on that, but it came in 3rd. oops.

[Pyser]

opening:

ghost town
igor
lakeview terrace
my best friend's girl


i like ghost town the most, but it isnt on nearly enough screens. will pick later

[Pyser]

with ghost town, igor and bf girl all splitting an audience in one weird way or another, im going lakeview terrace, even though i hate everything about it.

15m

[Pyser]

and lakeview terrace wins the weekend easily at 15.6m.

[Pyser]

this week is eagle eye vs nights in rodanthe

the kids take this one. eagle eye at 23m.

[Pyser]

i was under. eagle eye went for 29.2.

[Pyser]

lots opening this week:

nick and norahs infinite playlist
blindness
beverly hills chihuahua
how to lose friends and alienate people

and a few others on even less screens.

i think eagle eye could actually repeat here, its totally different than everything else. but im gonna go with the most ridiculous one up there, thinking kids will go.

chihuahua at 22m.

[Pyser]

and chihuahua takes it easily at 29m.

[Pyser]

another busy release week

body of lies
city of ember
the express
quarantine

there hasnt been a horror movie in a while, and i think it could take it at 23m...but body of lies has the star power. hmm...

im sticking with the teens going to see a horror movie for now.

[Pyser]

wow, a genuinely surprising week. chihuahua repeated at 17m. i really didnt see that coming. quarantine did 14, body of lies 13.

[Pyser]

oops. missed a week. luckily no one reads this thread though.

opening this week:

high school musical 3
saw 5


gotta go with the kids. hsm3 at 35m is my early guess. and right now i wonder if thats low

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Pyser

oops. missed a week. luckily no one reads this thread though.

I am a fan.

[hoopsguy]

I also have been reading along with this for a few months. I expect there are a few more people than you think following along.

[Pyser]

thanks, guys

hsm3 did indeed win, at 42m. so i was low. saw 5 made 30m for what its worth. but that will drop off in ridiculous fashion in the next 2 weeks...if not next weekend.

opening this week:

zak and miri make a porno
changeling
haunting of molly hartley


no idea what the 3rd movie is. im guessing a horror movie, obviously.

early pick is a repeat of hsm3, at 24m.

[cubboyroy1826]

For this week i think you will see HSM3 repeat at about $29 mill followed by Changeling.

[Pyser]

hsm3 only made 15, but won the weekend easily. zak and miri was 2nd.

opening this week:

madagascar 2
soul men
role models


easy pick here. madagascar 2. ill go 38m, but again, that may be low.

[Pyser]

i was under by a lot. madagascar 2 killed it - $63m

opening this week:

james bond. and thats about it. ill go $45m

[Pyser]

wow. another movie i badly undersold. bond did 67.5m.

opening this week:
bolt
twilight

VERY hard week. bond doesnt share an audience with either movie. every girl ive met recently is reading twilight, i think it will be very big. but didnt earlier this summer we learn that kids trump women (indy vs sex and the city?)

even with madagascar 2 still going strong, im going bolt: 42m. id expect bond and twilight to both be over 30 though, assuming the ladies like cedric diggory as much on screen as on their book pages...

[Pyser]

a very big miscalculation by me. i forgot that i only work with adult women, who were very excited about twilight....but teenagers were excited too, who i totally forgot about. no idea what i was thinking. anyway, 70.5m for twilight is very impressive. bolt finished 3rd at 27m.

[Pyser]

opening this week:

transporter 3
australia
4 christmases

i think 4 christmases should be the top new movie, but im gonna stick with twilight at 30m. go women. (ignoring the 5 day takes for these movies)

[Buccaneer]

It looks like the women went shopping instead. If my math is correct, Twilight is the 4th highest opening weekend with the biggest 2nd weekend drop, if that makes sense.

[Pyser]

well, my cold streak continues.

1-4 christmases - 31
2-bolt - 26.5
3-twilight - 26.3


damn women let me down

this weekend only has the punisher opening wide. if no one saw transporter 3, why would they go to the punisher? so the question is, what current movie will fall off the least: bolt or 4 christmases?

i'm going vince vaughn, 19m.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

It looks like the women went shopping instead. If my math is correct, Twilight is the 4th highest opening weekend with the biggest 2nd weekend drop, if that makes sense.

it doesnt make sense, sorry. can you elaborate?

[Buccaneer]

Go down this list

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm

Start picking out the movies with huge openings (like 60+). You will see that among those movies, Twilight has the 4th largest drop (at 62%).

[Pyser]

got one sorta right. predicted 19m, and 4 xmases made 17m. not too bad.

opening this week:

the day the earth stood still

the other stuff isnt on enough screens to matter. easy choice here, thought final figure is kinda tough to figure. is this a big movie weekend? i have no idea. ill go 29m.

[cubboyroy1826]

Okay i will give this one a try with about $38 mill.

[Pyser]

day the earth stood still made 30.4m. not bad on my guess. tough week coming up:

7 pounds
despereaux
yes man

its either the kids and animation, or carrey in a seemingly liar liar sequel. pretty tough.

ill go despereaux at 35m, but i think yes man will keep it close.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Okay, who picked Delgo?
Animated 'Delgo' Has Worst Wide Release Opening Ever

Don't feel too left out if you missed seeing the animated adventure movie "Delgo" this past weekend. No one did. In fact, the movie broke a record for having the worst opening ever for a film in wide release. "Delgo" earned a measly $511,920 this weekend on 2,160 screens, not even breaking the top ten. That's an average of $237 per screen for the three days. If you figure there were five screenings a day, and assume ticket prices are about $8, that comes out to two people in the theater per showing. By comparison, the Golden Globe-nominated drama "Doubt" earned roughly the same amount of money, but it was only in 15 theaters.

I only noticed this because I was interested in seeing how the movie did, as the people behind it were the principals in Atlanta-based Macquarium, one of the top interactive & creative companies in the ad business. Looks like they should have stuck with that (although apparently it began way back when as a way to try to get this movie made)

[Pyser]

wow

you know, if you want people to see your movie, it generally helps to tell ANYONE youve made it and its coming out soon. ive never heard of it

interesting cast, after watching the trailer on youtube. though everything about it seems 'homemade' before it. i couldnt even tell if it was a comedy or not.

thanks for the info, though!

[Buccaneer]

Jon, there has to be a qualification for that. According to boxofficemojo, "wide release" is considered 600+ theatres (where it came in #13). In the next category, "very wide" (2000+), it was #1 (by far). They have two higher categories (2500+ and 3000+).