Hurricane Gustav

[SunDevil]

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide

Based on this data, I do not see how the water is cooler closer to shore.

[ShaneTheMaster]

Hope everyone stays safe. I lived in Laplace, LA and Lafayette,LA most of my life., so I am very fearful of the state of things right now. Trying to get my stubborn mother to make definite plans to leave, instead of waiting.

[Buccaneer]

I have read/heard in several places, including a colleague with family in Houma, saying that New Orleans will likely not withstand another major hit. It really could just become a smaller tourist site.

[SFL Cat]

^^^ That's amazing to me...the thought of a major city like New Orleans becoming something of a ghost town.

[JeeberD]

My thoughts are with you guys down there. DFW is expecting a bunch of evacuees to head this way over the next couple of days...

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm very surprised that my mother-in-law and her parents just made it here from New Orleans in about 90 minutes, which is not much longer than usual. Apparently, not many people evacuating early (or they just got really lucky and hit a lull.)

[Doug5984]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm very surprised that my mother-in-law and her parents just made it here from New Orleans in about 90 minutes, which is not much longer than usual. Apparently, not many people evacuating early (or they just got really lucky and hit a lull.)

From what I've seen its been a very steady flow of people evacuating and it started on Thursday, and with contra flow opening up in the morning, it might not be too bad to get anywhere

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by Doug5984

We talk about that type of thing a lot, and really everyone I talk to would much rather deal with hurricanes than natural disasters around the rest of the country.

Earthquakes, forest fires, flash floods, blizzards, tornadoes, ice storms- those all seem so much worse than hurricanes, i guess its just personal preference.

Yeah. I live on the southern tip of South Carolina so we're a bit tucked in from the rest of the Atlantic coast, meaning we're not in quite as much danger as folks in Florida and northeastern SC/North Carolina but hurricanes seem a lot easier to avoid than tornadoes, river flooding, fires, and earthquakes that folks in other parts of the nation have to deal with. Even if the damage is worse in terms of $$$$ you can get out of town ahead of time.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by SunDevil

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide

US NODC Coastal Water Temperature Guide

Based on this data, I do not see how the water is cooler closer to shore.

I think the issue is depth of warmth, but I'm not sure.

[SunDevil]

I just wanted to add that I hope everyone stays safe and/or gets out of New Orleans. Best of luck everyone.

[Buccaneer]

It looks like the State and the Parishes are on top of things pretty well. Glad they are not sitting around doing jackshit and waiting for the feds like they did last time. I know this is twisted, but a little part of me wants their efforts to be rewarded. A wasted evacuation will make people less concerned next time.

[claphamsa]

Big difference is the feds are doing something this time.

[DaddyTorgo]

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city beginning at 8 a.m. Sunday but urged residents to flee now.

"You need to be scared," Nagin said of the Category 4 hurricane tearing along Cuba's western coast. "You need to be concerned, and you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now. This is the storm of the century."

[JPhillips]

The satellite and IR pictures are terrifying already. I hope the Cubans in the path got the hell out of Dodge. God Bless to everybody here that's going to be in thepath. It sounds like even as far away as Baton Rouge could get strong category 2 winds.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The satellite and IR pictures are terrifying already. I hope the Cubans in the path got the hell out of Dodge. God Bless to everybody here that's going to be in thepath. It sounds like even as far away as Baton Rouge could get strong category 2 winds.

Good call, especially since a lot of the buildings in Havana are crumbling wrecks. Some I doubt could withstand a tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SunDevil

I just wanted to add that I hope everyone stays safe and/or gets out of New Orleans. Best of luck everyone.

+1

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm very surprised that my mother-in-law and her parents just made it here from New Orleans in about 90 minutes, which is not much longer than usual. Apparently, not many people evacuating early (or they just got really lucky and hit a lull.)

You can come stay at my house in Jacksonville if you need .....seriously

[Buccaneer]

Here we go again

[Buccaneer]

Good idea

[Buccaneer]

from nola.com

As Hurricane Gustav threatens to crash ashore just west of Morgan City as a major Category 4 storm, the biggest threat to Louisiana residents will be catastrophic flooding caused by storm surge, two Louisiana State University coastal wetlands experts said.

In the New Orleans area, large sections of the West Bank could see surge overtopping pieces of a still-incomplete levee system, and it also could cause flooding in low-lying areas south of Slidell and in Madisonville, said Ivor van Heerden, a coastal geologist and assistant director of LSU's Louisiana Hurricane Center.
The Houma area could see surge as deep as 15 feet if Gustav keeps to its predicted path and intensity, said coastal biologist Robert Twilley.
"If it stays on this southwest Louisiana track, Gustav will be like a hybrid between Katrina and Rita," Twilley said. "And right in the middle, you've got the huge Atchafalaya basin."
Van Heerden agreed, warning that several levee reaches around Houma face open water, and the diagonal direction of the storm will make them perpendicular to the waves, making them susceptible to erosion.
"The bottom line is that what Katrina and Rita didn't destroy in 2005, this storm has the potential to do," he said.

[rowech]

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by rowech

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

+1

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by rowech

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

You are not alone.

[SFL Cat]

I've heard building the levees was what caused New Orleans' problems with flooding in the first place. Silt from the Mississippi is prevented from filling in or something like that.

[Eaglesfan27]

My wife's grandparents are already driving me crazy. The new track has it potentially coming very close to Baton Rouge, and they are wandering why they came here and didn't just stay in New Orleans. I keep telling them, even if it comes here, at least we won't flood (their home had 4-6 feet of water from Katrina while this area is the highest rated flood zone with none in "500 years.")

[SFL Cat]

^^^That's gratitude.

[Wolfpack]

It's been rather remarkable that it looks like the NHC has had this track essentially pegged for so many days in advance. In spite of the likely destruction from Gustav, the fact that it has been generally well behaved has allowed New Orleans and Louisiana in general to be as prepared as they can ever hope to be for this storm.

Looking at the 11 PM discussion, there were a couple of things to note. First, the models are coming into agreement on a south-central Louisiana landfall, though the forecast has slipped a little to the east in the latest forecast. Secondly, it looks like the timetable for landfall has moved up a bit as the models are now expecting more consistent forward momentum from the storm rather than a potential slowdown nearing the coast. Landfall projections had been drifting into Tuesday, but they've abruptly shifted the projection back to late afternoon on Monday now. If the newest projections are true, then that means the minutes people need and have to get out of the way of this storm just shrunk and urgency needs to be stepped up.

Still not a good feel for what will happen to New Orleans in all this. If current projections are held, then the city will likely experience some amount of time in hurricane conditions during the late afternoon and early evening on Monday. However, the track is far enough to the west that it should not be a long time or overly severe. Of course, all it takes at this distance from New Orleans is for the storm to just jog a little bit to the east and the problem worsens exponentially. If there's a positive in such a scenario, though, it is that there shouldn't be much affect from Lake Pontchartrain as the wind direction should generally favor pushing lake waters north and west as only a slight period of time near landfall should see any winds in New Orleans coming from the north. Otherwise, being on the northeast and east side of the storm will mean mostly winds from the south and southeast during the worst part of the landfall time period. Yes, this means potentially flooding from the Mississippi side of the city, but the river does't hold the same volume of water that the lake does, so I don't think the flood problem would be as severe as it was under Katrina even if the storm was stronger than that one at landfall.

The brunt will likely fall on southeast-facing shores and on the mouth of the Mississippi, which will be in the right semi-circle of the storm and thus exposed to the strongest winds (with forward motion factored in). Those areas will possibly experience isolated Cat 5 conditions if the current projections for wind speed and forward motion are correct. Throw in storm surge and it's entirely possible that the shoreline of southeast Louisiana will look a bit different on Tuesday than it does today.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

^^^That's gratitude.

Well, they lost their home with Katrina and are very scared that their new home which was just rebuilt is going to get washed away. My wife's grandmother is already a high anxiety person (wife tells me that only happened as she passed 70 or so) and she had the attitude earlier that she wanted to go with her home if it went again. She is going to say all kinds of things that try my patience that are mostly a product of her anxiety over the next 2-3 days, but I'm just trying to let it all go.

On another note, I'm getting kind of nervous as I just walked outside and neighbors on both sides of me are loading their vans and evacuating. Then again, both neighbors are from the northeast and aren't used to hurricanes, although one of them told me they had an easy experience with Katrina. About half of the houses in this neighborhood of 70 homes look like they are evacuating, and the other half look like they are the site of evacuees with a bunch of unusual cars in front of their home.

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by rowech

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

it's one of the biggest ports in the nation; the nation cant afford to abandon it.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by rowech

Is anyone else bitter about the fact that we're going to watch billions of dollars wasted again? Why did we even try and rebuild this city in the first place? It's simply not logical.

I'm not going to be an asshole this thread like I was in the last one. I'd suggest we save this debate for another time when people are safe and those who will most certainly be affected are able to sort through the rubble of their life(again).

[Eaglesfan27]

Yes, can we please save that debate for another time and thread. I'm about 65 miles from the coast and at about 50 feet of elevation, but face real peril from this storm. Not to mention many board members who have loved ones in New Orleans. I'd like to be able to continue to view this thread without having to deal with that.

Especially since I don't want to vent my fears in front of my wife's family who are already very anxious, and I'd like to think this is a good place to vent.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Yes, can we please save that debate for another time and thread. I'm about 65 miles from the coast and at about 50 feet of elevation, but face real peril from this storm. Not to mention many board members who have loved ones in New Orleans. I'd like to be able to continue to view this thread without having to deal with that.

Especially since I don't want to vent my fears in front of my wife's family who are already very anxious, and I'd like to think this is a good place to vent.

+1

[Arles]

I hope everything goes OK for you guys out in Louisiana over the next two days. It seems that there's a fighting chance the levees will hold (guy just came on the news and said the "projected winds" are reducing a bit).

Any rate, good luck to you all and stay safe!

[astrosfan64]

Originally Posted by Arles

I hope everything goes OK for you guys out in Louisiana over the next two days. It seems that there's a fighting chance the levees will hold (guy just came on the news and said the "projected winds" are reducing a bit).

Any rate, good luck to you all and stay safe!

Aye, I hope it turns out well.

[stevew]

Are you taking any kind of window precautions ef? Too bad you got all the houseguests, really puts a damper on most of the fun activities you can do if the power goes out.

[Eaglesfan27]

Still debating the window precautions, which I know is probably stupid. If it keeps this current track, then we are going to attempt to do some window precautions tomorrow, particularly on the bigger windows. Haven't seen any neighbors boarding up yet (including the ones who have already evacuated.) We have a ton of huge windows, so it will be a lot of work.. Within the next year, I'm definitely getting some storm shutters added.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Still debating the window precautions, which I know is probably stupid. If it keeps this current track, then we are going to attempt to do some window precautions tomorrow, particularly on the bigger windows. Haven't seen any neighbors boarding up yet (including the ones who have already evacuated.) We have a ton of huge windows, so it will be a lot of work.. Within the next year, I'm definitely getting some storm shutters added.

Dude, this ain't the time to care about what your neighbors think is silly or not. A man of your profession should know better.


in all seriousness, good luck with the heavy weather. That counts for all to be hit!

[Karlifornia]

Good luck to everyone down there.

[terpkristin]

Just found out that my brother, sister-in-law, and nephew have decided to evacuate early this time. Unfortunately, when my mom talked to them, they still weren't sure where they were headed. She's got family in Austin (which is where they ended up last time, though they left MUCH later in the game), I'm guessing that might be their easiest option, especially with little Otto (15 months).

Hope everybody else stays safe, keep us updated if you can.

/tk

[CU Tiger]

Good luck to all in the path.

[Doug5984]

Well I've decided what I'm doing...
Will be heading to my parents house on the other side of town, it is a very new well built house- with no trees around.
I have a massive White Oak in my backyard, and not going to take a chance in my house with that thing there.

The rebuilding New Orleans debate is for another place another time, there are natural disasters all across the country, these are ours- just so happens to POSSIBLY get 2 in a 3 year span when it hadn't been hit in forever before that.

EaglesFan- your up in Prarieville? Stay safe as it looks like it will be passing close to yall as well.
I'm not doing any window work on my house, or at my parents where I will be staying... Been busy getting other things in line, pulling stuff inside

[SFL Cat]

We're were actually getting the edges of the feeder bands here in South Florida, pretty windy and rainy.

[Eaglesfan27]

Yeah, I'm in Prairieville which is just southeast of Baton Rouge. I don't like the current track at all. We aren't boarding up, yet, but with our crew of evacuees we are trimming a few trees real quickly as well as making sure all potential projectiles are out of our yard.

[Marc Vaughan]

I'd like to wish the best of luck to anyone in the path of Gustav; hope all goes well.

[Cringer]

President Bush with a press conference from FEMA headquarters, and is now heading to Texas to monitor the situation from there.

If I rolled my eyes enough to cover my feelings for this, they would roll out of their sockets.


Good luck guys who are there.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Cringer

President Bush with a press conference from FEMA headquarters, and is now heading to Texas to monitor the situation from there.

If I rolled my eyes enough to cover my feelings for this, they would roll out of their sockets.


Good luck guys who are there.

this delayed me gettign back to my office by about 30 min. i went out to lunch, and by the time quiznoes was done with me, ihad to wait for his motorcade to go past.

at least let those of us who are trying to help do our jobs!

[molson]

Originally Posted by Cringer

President Bush with a press conference from FEMA headquarters, and is now heading to Texas to monitor the situation from there.

If I rolled my eyes enough to cover my feelings for this, they would roll out of their sockets.


Good luck guys who are there.

Obama would stop the Hurricane before it ever reached the Gulf Coast.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by molson

Obama would stop the Hurricane before it ever reached the Gulf Coast.

obsessed much?

[Noop]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Yeah, I'm in Prairieville which is just southeast of Baton Rouge. I don't like the current track at all. We aren't boarding up, yet, but with our crew of evacuees we are trimming a few trees real quickly as well as making sure all potential projectiles are out of our yard.

Please board up the windows, all it takes is one strong gust and the red stop sign becomes a lethal projectile. Especially if your going to get the northern part of the system which is traditionally the nasty side.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah - board your windows up EF. Seriously. Or at least the ones in the rooms where you'll be waiting out the storm.

Doug - looks like your house is smack-dab in the middle of it. Stay safe!

And to everyone else - stay safe!