October 2008 Sales Numbers (RIP Sony's silver medal hopes)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

I think it costs too much to burn Blu-Ray discs at this point and that's the reason pirates have yet to embrace the PS3 like they have most other consoles past and present.

I'm sure that's not the case. You can buy a Blu-ray burner for $80 or less now. The discs can be found in quantity at a very cheap price. If there was a home-brew firmware available on the PS3 to actually read those discs, you can be sure those fraudulent copies would be pouring out into the market.

[Big Fo]

I thought each Blu-Ray writable was like $10-20, far higher than DVDs. Maybe it has come down recently.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

I thought each Blu-Ray writable was like $10-20, far higher than DVDs. Maybe it has come down recently.

In internet retail sites, you can pick them up for around $13-15. Wholesale, you can get them for less than $10 if you buy in bulk. But even if they buy for $10 and sell a 'new' game for $25-30, they're making one hell of a profit. But at this point, there's no market due to the PS3 security

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm sure that's not the case. You can buy a Blu-ray burner for $80 or less now. The discs can be found in quantity at a very cheap price. If there was a home-brew firmware available on the PS3 to actually read those discs, you can be sure those fraudulent copies would be pouring out into the market.

Cheapest Blu Ray burner on newegg is $225 and the range in price up to $400.
Newegg.com - Blu-Ray Burners, CD / DVD Burners & Media

Cheapest price on newegg for BD media is $6-7/disc (25 for $170).
Newegg.com - BD-R(Blu-ray) DL, BD-RE(Blu-ray), BD-R(Blu-ray), CD / DVD Media, CD / DVD Burners & Media, Computer Hardware


Where are you getting your numbers?

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Cheapest Blu Ray burner on newegg is $225 and the range in price up to $400.
Newegg.com - Blu-Ray Burners, CD / DVD Burners & Media

Cheapest price on newegg for BD media is $6-7/disc (25 for $170).
Newegg.com - BD-R(Blu-ray) DL, BD-RE(Blu-ray), BD-R(Blu-ray), CD / DVD Media, CD / DVD Burners & Media, Computer Hardware


Where are you getting your numbers?

The same place he gets everything else.

I couldn't resist.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Cheapest Blu Ray burner on newegg is $225 and the range in price up to $400.

Cheapest price on newegg for BD media is $6-7/disc (25 for $170).


Where are you getting your numbers?

They're expecting burners to be available for $80-100 by the end of this holiday season. The word in the Blu-ray market right now is that some of the BR hardware companies are not going to release their product because the expected price points in the coming months won't be high enough to meet their profitable price point. Bad for them, but good for consumers.

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

They're expecting burners to be available for $80-100 by the end of this holiday season. The word in the Blu-ray market right now is that some of the BR hardware companies are not going to release their product because the expected price points in the coming months won't be high enough to meet their profitable price point. Bad for them, but good for consumers.

You can buy a Blu-ray burner for $80 or less now.

So basically now doesn't mean the same thing for you as it does everyone else?

Also how does the cheapness of making duplicates in the future have any relevance to the argument of why duplicates haven't existed in the past or present?

[Daimyo]

Personally I agree with Big Fo. Once BR burners gets to less than $100 and media falls to the $1-2 range all the copy protection stuff will quickly be figured out and we'll have stuff like DVDShrink for Blu-ray and pirated PS3 games.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Also how does the cheapness of making duplicates in the future have any relevance to the argument of why duplicates haven't existed in the past or present?

Nothing, other than Big Fo saying that the cost of the disc is cost-prohibitive, which it is not. There's plenty of profit to be had if the firmware existed, but it does not. I'm thankful that it does not.

[Daimyo]

Seems like you're focusing on the industrial pirates and ignoring the home pirates who rent and burn and borrow and burn. Personally, I don't know anyone who purchases pirated games, but I know a ton of people who burn their own.

For the home burners the entry costs are prohibitive. They would have to burn six or seven games at today's prices (or significantly more at six months ago prices!) to break even over paying full retail for games. I'm not sure there are enough good PS3 games yet to justify that for many people.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

For the home burners the entry costs are prohibitive. They would have to burn six or seven games at today's prices (or significantly more at six months ago prices!) to break even over paying full retail for games. I'm not sure there are enough good PS3 games yet to justify that for many people.

I'm not sure those that burn games are interested in how good the games are. Since they are probably burning just about everything they can find, I'd be surprised if many games got a full play.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Seems like you're focusing on the industrial pirates and ignoring the home pirates who rent and burn and borrow and burn. Personally, I don't know anyone who purchases pirated games, but I know a ton of people who burn their own.

For the home burners the entry costs are prohibitive. They would have to burn six or seven games at today's prices (or significantly more at six months ago prices!) to break even over paying full retail for games. I'm not sure there are enough good PS3 games yet to justify that for many people.

I agree with most of that. I am referring to the industry pirates. You have to remember that the PS3 and Xbox 360 are two different beasts in that regard. The PS3 is not region locked, so the industry pirates are a much bigger concern for Sony. If the security gets broken, they lose a ton of money in Europe and Asia on games sales.

If you're talking about home pirates, then Fo and your comments make much more sense. I don't agree with the 'good PS3 games' comment as a person who home-burns games will burn lots of games regardless.

[Big Fo]

Yeah as Daimyo says I was talking in terms of individual pirates who download and burn their own games. What's the point of spending that much when you're partaking in that illegal solely to get games as cheap as possible.

Also the XBox 360 has 90%+ of the games that PS3 does so maybe a lot of people that would pirate those games already have modded 360s.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Also the XBox 360 has 90%+ of the games that PS3 does so maybe a lot of people that would pirate those games already have modded 360s.

This is why I was wondering if the PS3's hackability status is what will keep it below the 360 in hardware sales. If you are going to burn games anyway, the 360 is an easy choice for a console. Heck, I've even heard of people buying 2 360s so they can play burned single player games in one and purchased multiplayer games in the other non-modded console.

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I don't agree with the 'good PS3 games' comment as a person who home-burns games will burn lots of games regardless.

Sure, once they're all setup they will burn a lot of crap. However, to get setup with BR you're looking at close to $300. You better have at least six games you want to play to justify that expense. With DVDs you need less than $30 to get started... if there is even one game you want to play you can justify the investment!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Sure, once they're all setup they will burn a lot of crap. However, to get setup with BR you're looking at close to $300. You better have at least six games you want to play to justify that expense. With DVDs you need less than $30 to get started... if there is even one game you want to play you can justify the investment!

Yes, but your scenario does not include BR movies in the equation. You could burn out a pretty nice library of HD movies with that same drive (once again assuming the firmware were available).

[Daimyo]

People who burn DVDs have already decided said they're okay with sub-DVD quality because they almost always have to compress the video to fit on a SL DVD. I'm sure they'll embrace BR eventually, but I don't see them leading the charge.

[Neon_Chaos]

I live in the Philippines, and, well, we're probably the game piracy capital of the world. Heh.

The word on the vendors is that the only reason that pirated PS3 games do not exist is because pirated bluray movies aren't available yet.

Once the bluray movies start getting pirated, then the games will come soon.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

The word on the vendors is that the only reason that pirated PS3 games do not exist is because pirated bluray movies aren't available yet.

Correct. They don't exist at this point because no one has been able to break the security measures on Blu-ray discs (i.e. there are no home-brew updates to PS3's or BR players to allow the machines to read pirated copies of the games/movies). The problem is that until they break through the security, those pirated discs are all but worthless because they aren't encoded properly to play on the official firmware..

[Cringer]

I have had my 360 for years now, though not exactly a fan-boy by any means. It was out before the PS3, cheaper, and had way better games even a year after the PS3 was out.

With that said, I do love having a PS3 now to go along with it. (And the Wii which is the daughter's #1 by far). Why I love the PS3? It made certain things easier for me then the 360 ever did.

Built in wireless? Love it. Lets face it, after all this time I probably won't hook up my 360 to the internet because I am not buying a $100 wireless adapter and I am not real big on the idea of running 30 feet or so of cat5 cable across the house. I will be able to do some online play for the first time if I ever want to. I can access my laptop music and crap on the TV, which is nice to have finally. Plus the online stuff is free, nice for a guy who is cheap with things like that.

Blu-ray will be great. My $10 (with shipping) HDMI cable should be here in a day or so and then I will watch my first blu-ray movie on it.

I realize that I still love the PS controller and how it feels in my hands.

The end all, be all of game systems? Nope. But I think it is worth the price of it now that I have used one.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

FYI.....Family Video website has some good deals on recently released games. Fable II and Gears of War are both $49.99 shipped. Resistance 2 is $52.99 shipped. Check techbargains.com for the coupon codes.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Alright, for those that complain that Wii's aren't ever available, here's your chance. Nintendo shipped a monsterous shipment of Wii's this week and virtually everywhere has them in stock today. Here's the Amazon link for a start.........

Amazon.com: Wii: Video Games

[Big Fo]

Patcher has said October's numbers (coming out tonight) will be even more huge than normal for Nintendo, maybe pushing 800k. The Wii selling 519k last October is the record for the month.

[Cringer]

Does anyone know if there is a wire that goes from HMDI to DVI, and is so can you use that with a PS3? It seems my 4+ year old HD TV doesn't have HDMI, but DVI. No, I have never actually checked until now.

I would like my PS3 using something better then RCA wires for crying out loud, and my two component inputs are already in use.

Going to have to get a new TV within a year or so anyways I think, but it won't be soon.

[Big Fo]

October numbers and top ten are out.

Hardware: ....... October ..... (Sept).... Lifetime

Wii ................... 803K .... (687.0K) ... 13.4m
Nintendo DS ..... 491K .... (536.8K) ... 22.9m
Xbox 360 ......... 371K .... (347.2K) ... 11.6m
PSP .................. 193K .... (238.1K) ... 12.2m
PlayStation 3 .... 190K .... (232.4K) ... 5.7m
PlayStation 2 .... 136K .... (173.5K) ... 43.0m

Software:

360 FABLE II ...................................................... 790K
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD ................................ 487K
360 FALLOUT 3 ................................................... 375K
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL ..................................... 290K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE ........................................... 282K
360 SAINTS ROW 2 ................................................ 270K
PS3 SOCOM: U.S. NAVY SEALS CONFRONTATION ... 231K
PS3 LITTLE BIG PLANET ......................................... 215K
360 NBA 2K9 ........................................................ 202K
360 DEAD SPACE .................................................. 193K

Looks like Sony might take a whoopin' this holiday season. They need a price drop badly but can't afford it.

Wii sales are through the roof again.

LittleBigPlanet sold pretty well in only a few days. Same goes for the 360 version of Fallout 3. I'd like to know how much the PS3 and PC versions sold.

Great sales for Fable II.

Guitar Hero: World Tour and Rock Band 2 didn't chart. Are people sick of the fad, don't feel like buying all those plastic instruments in this economy, or have the sequels been released too close to the previous versions? Wii Music didn't make the charts either.

[Voo]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Does anyone know if there is a wire that goes from HMDI to DVI, and is so can you use that with a PS3? It seems my 4+ year old HD TV doesn't have HDMI, but DVI. No, I have never actually checked until now.

I would like my PS3 using something better then RCA wires for crying out loud, and my two component inputs are already in use.

Going to have to get a new TV within a year or so anyways I think, but it won't be soon.

Check here.

[wade moore]

Ok, a little message board ettiquette here..

Why are we changing the thread title of the September sales and posting October numbers rather than starting a new thread?

[SirFozzie]

Wow. No version of GHWT broke 200K. The RB2 PS3 version isn't so surprising.. (PS3 smaller install base etcetera), but I'm sure that no version of GHWT breaking 200K is a shock. I joke about ActiBlizzard killing the Goose that laid the Golden Eggs, but that might have happened.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Ok, a little message board ettiquette here..

Why are we changing the thread title of the September sales and posting October numbers rather than starting a new thread?

Last month's thread was only a page and a half long and a decent portion of those posts occurred in the last day or two, I figured why not just keep this thread going?

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. No version of GHWT broke 200K. The RB2 PS3 version isn't so surprising.. (PS3 smaller install base etcetera), but I'm sure that no version of GHWT breaking 200K is a shock. I joke about ActiBlizzard killing the Goose that laid the Golden Eggs, but that might have happened.

The one thing that might make the thread subtitle a little too sensationalistic is that you have the 360 version full bundle/guitar+game/game only and all the other systems. I don't know if they are all counted together or separately...

[SirFozzie]

all versions lumped together on one platform

[Big Fo]

Wii Music: 81k

And from a gamedaily.com article here's some info on the other music games:

BIZ: There are no Guitar Hero or Rock Band SKUs in the top 10. How did these fare? Is the higher pricing on these games finally becoming an issue for the publishers?

Frazier: Given how well GH3 did at launch last year, there was bound to be some extra scrutiny on these new releases. While not living up to last year's launch, Guitar Hero World Tour sold a very strong 534K units at an average retail price of $126. Not shabby! And Rock Band 2 has sold 600K since its release so I'd say the genre is holding up quite well. These will make great gift-giving items over the next two months as well.

BIZ: Thanks Anita.

So music games are alive and well it seems, even if they aren't at GH3 levels.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

So basically now doesn't mean the same thing for you as it does everyone else?

Apparently not

[ColtCrazy]

Count me in the masses that bought Fable II (excellent game) which is something since I've only bought 2 games for the system since I got it in August and got another free.

I can't believe PS3 is still doing so poorly with the holidays approaching. What will Sony do if they are still dead after Dec.?

[sterlingice]

I wonder why they didn't make the list as they would be at 2 and 3.

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ColtCrazy

I can't believe PS3 is still doing so poorly with the holidays approaching. What will Sony do if they are still dead after Dec.?

The 360 price cut has more to do with it than anything else. The 360 is a very cheap viable alternative at this point. Sony is expected to whack the prices in early 2009 due to cost cutting on the components. Until then, they're just going to have to ride it out. This situation is of their own doing.

I do think that the death of the PS3 is highly exaggerated based on just two months in the U.S. when the PS3 has beaten the 360 worldwide this year. That shouldn't diminish the fact that it's certainly not a good two months in the U.S. for Sony.

[gstelmack]

I think Bill Harris is saying it best at Dubious Quality: That Is Some Serious Decepticon Bullshit:

Originally Posted by Dubious Quality

From Sony's press release in response to the NPD numbers (thanks Kotaku):
LAYSTATION®3 (PS3™) continued its positive momentum in October, with 190K hardware units sold, a 90% growth year-to-date. This represents an increase of 56% when compared to October 2007, during which SCEA introduced a price cut for PS3.

Tell me they didn't just try to do that.

Take a look at this sentence:
This represents an increase of 56% when compared to October 2007, during which SCEA introduced a price cut for PS3.

They're not talking about the ACTUAL price cut, which came November 2. They're talking about the PRESS RELEASE on October 18 of last year announcing the price cut.

So really, they're comparing this year's sales to the month when no one bought a PS3 for the last two weeks unless they were clinically insane. In other words, it's the easiest possible compare imaginable. By the way the press release reads, though, you'd think October was the month when the actual price cut took place and tons of units were sold--the toughest possible compare.

That is some outstandingly high-level dickery.

You know when companies deceive? When they feel like they have to. That's all you need to know about how Sony perceives their own results for October.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I think Bill Harris is saying it best at Dubious Quality: That Is Some Serious Decepticon Bullshit:

Bill's right. The monthly PR releases from both Microsoft have become a 'who can artificially try to look better' situation. Nintendo's release just says the numbers and little more. Why? Because they're way ahead and can do so.

BTW.......My prediction that 'Wii Music' would flop was obviously spot-on. I'm surprised that anyone thought otherwise. 81K for a 1st party Nintendo game with that kind of installed hardware base is an unmitigated disaster.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

BTW.......My prediction that 'Wii Music' would flop was obviously spot-on. I'm surprised that anyone thought otherwise. 81K for a 1st party Nintendo game with that kind of installed hardware base is an unmitigated disaster.

Yes, they'll just have to cry about outselling the 360 by double and PS3 by quadruple despite no major software releases for the month.

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yes, they'll just have to cry about outselling the 360 by double and PS3 by quadruple despite no major software releases for the month.

SI

That's certainly one way of putting it, but Nintendo is reportedly very unhappy with the sales on Wii Music.

But I do understand that the preference in this thread is flaming, so flame away.

[Big Fo]

I haven't played Wii Music but from reading reviews and watching videos of people play the game I'm glad it bombed. Hopefully Nintendo gets the message when comparing the sales of that game to Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid Prime 3, Galaxy, Smash Bros., etc.

Looking back, Guitar Hero: World Tour still did pretty poorly compared to Guitar Hero III.

GH:WT - 534k

And from October 2007 (all four of these made the top 10):

# Guitar Hero III: Legends Of Rock w/guitar (Xbox 360, Neversoft/Activision) - 383,200
# Guitar Hero III: Legends Of Rock w/guitar (Wii, Neversoft/Vicarious Visions/Activision) - 286,300
# Guitar Hero III: Legends Of Rock w/guitar (PlayStation 2, Neversoft/Budcat/Activision) 271.1K
# Guitar Hero III: Legends Of Rock (PlayStation 2, Neversoft/Budcat/Activision) - 231,700

All four of these bundles charted, totaling 1.17m, plus there are no numbers for the PS3 version or the disc only version on 360. So World Tour sold far less than half as much as the previous version.

[SirFozzie]

Japan: This Is How Much Japan's Market Has Declined In 12 Months

Well, the good news is for Microsoft that 360 outsold the PS3 in Japan again last month (27K v 22K), the bad news is that year-over-year (ie, October 2008 vs October 2007) software sales are down 14.9% and Hardware sales are down an impressive 29.1%...

[RainMaker]

I don't know why anyone is arguing about 2nd place. The PS3 is a failure, plain and simple. Just look at Sony's stock price. They are dramatically behind, getting beat on monthly totals today, and we're in the midst of a huge economic slowdown. Blu-Ray has bombed bigger than anyone could have possibly expected. The "tsunami" is not coming.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know why anyone is arguing about 2nd place. The PS3 is a failure, plain and simple. Just look at Sony's stock price. They are dramatically behind, getting beat on monthly totals today, and we're in the midst of a huge economic slowdown. Blu-Ray has bombed bigger than anyone could have possibly expected. The "tsunami" is not coming.

Absolutely. The PS3 has performed far below expectations at this point. The only thing more shocking than that is that the Xbox 360 hasn't been able to take advantage of that. They slashed their prices and still sold roughly the same number of units as last October. In addition, both Microsoft and Sony are still losing money on each console sold. Both consoles are huge failures at this point.

It's too early to write off the Blu-ray format at this point. The first run movies are now reaching the $20 price point and the players are just now getting to the $200 price point. Both are price points that they need to reach to really start selling to the mass market. Given the emphasis on HDTV's and Blu-ray as major selling points by big box retailers this fall, most expect a good holiday season in regards to those markets, though you are correct that they will be hindered somewhat by the economy.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Absolutely. The PS3 has performed far below expectations at this point. The only thing more shocking than that is that the Xbox 360 hasn't been able to take advantage of that. They slashed their prices and still sold roughly the same number of units as last October. In addition, both Microsoft and Sony are still losing money on each console sold. Both consoles are huge failures at this point.

Microsoft's XBOX division is profitible, Sony's PS3 is not. That is the only statistic that matters to either company.

And of course they both lose money on console sales. Consoles are nothing more than a loss leader. It's about building up marketshare, especially going into the final years of the console's lifespan. Microsoft will be able to sit back and cash in on video game sales, 3rd party licensing, and Live memberships. They will make major profits on this console, Sony won't.

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

It's too early to write off the Blu-ray format at this point. The first run movies are now reaching the $20 price point and the players are just now getting to the $200 price point. Both are price points that they need to reach to really start selling to the mass market. Given the emphasis on HDTV's and Blu-ray as major selling points by big box retailers this fall, most expect a good holiday season in regards to those markets, though you are correct that they will be hindered somewhat by the economy.

The HDTV boom happened last Christmas and it didn't help Blu-Ray. They still sell a miniscule amount of the total number of movies sold (isn't it like 3%?). The costs still remain high on producing and the lack of marketshare means the selection is going to be limited to new major movie releases. Upsampling DVD players work just fine at a fraction of the cost.

Sony missed the boat. The next step wasn't blu-ray, it was digital. No one is going to be touting their massive library of DVDs and Blu-Ray discs in 5 years. They'll have a hard drive filled with them instead. I can watch just about every new Blu-Ray release through my cable provider and in HD. $3.95 vs $250 blu-ray player and $20 disc. What do you think is going to win in a horrible economy? I can DVR tons of movies in HD for a cheap monthly fee to a couple premium channels like HBO. Heck, my 360 will be able to stream my Netflix account in a few days.

Blu-Ray is dead. Jobs knows it, Gates knows it, and just about everyone else at the forefront of technology knows it. In fact, one of the greatest business moves in recent history may be Microsoft's backing of HD-DVD. They knew it wasn't going to win out but they left enough indecisiveness in the minds of people that it never allowed Blu-Ray to get mass appeal.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Microsoft's XBOX division is profitible, Sony's PS3 is not. That is the only statistic that matters to either company.

And of course they both lose money on console sales. Consoles are nothing more than a loss leader. It's about building up marketshare, especially going into the final years of the console's lifespan. Microsoft will be able to sit back and cash in on video game sales, 3rd party licensing, and Live memberships. They will make major profits on this console, Sony won't.

Sony missed the boat. The next step wasn't blu-ray, it was digital.

Neither is profitable. Microsoft made money for a few months per console before the price cut reportedly put them back into a loss on each console sold. Either way, both companies are in WAY over their head in losses for their hardware.

Also, the comment you make regarding consoles being 'loss leaders' is extremely short-sighted. The Wii has been profitable from the start. After the fall by both MS and Sony this generation, you can be sure that they'll be moving to a 'profit from the start' model in future generations. The PS4 is reportedly going to be basically PS3.5. They'll have a lot of the same chips in the PS4 with a tweak on the system speed. Nothing firm has come out of MS concerning their plans for the future, but I'd be shocked to see them introduce another Xbox that isn't profitable from the start.

The 'digital card' has been played over and over in these discussions without much merit. We'll just agree to disagree. The internet isn't going to be fast enough to deliver Blu-ray quality on a mass market level. Also, your assumption that last year should have been the year for BR are highly flawed when compared to previous market trends. Both VHS and DVD had their breakout year in their 3rd holiday season. This holiday season is the 3rd for Blu-ray and major retailers are asking their sales staff to emphasize sales of HDTV's and Blu-ray.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Neither is profitable. Microsoft made money for a few months per console before the price cut reportedly put them back into a loss on each console sold. Either way, both companies are in WAY over their head in losses for their hardware.

The XBox 360 is profitible. They have been for awhile now.

Microsoft's Xbox division turns Q1 profit, ships 2.2 million consoles - Joystiq

Where are you getting your data from?

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The 'digital card' has been played over and over in these discussions without much merit. We'll just agree to disagree. The internet isn't going to be fast enough to deliver Blu-ray quality on a mass market level. Also, your assumption that last year should have been the year for BR are highly flawed when compared to previous market trends. Both VHS and DVD had their breakout year in their 3rd holiday season. This holiday season is the 3rd for Blu-ray and major retailers are asking their sales staff to emphasize sales of HDTV's and Blu-ray.

Blu-Ray has a 4% market share. They are entering one of the worst holiday season we've seen in decades. This isn't going to be the big breakout year.

Digital is the future. Cable companies have ramped up their VOD sections. Online services are offering movie downloads. And some companies are putting together streaming digital movie services. Sure it has some warts, but it's the future, and it's coming on fast.

Blu-Ray may gain some minor market share and may have a nice little niche amongst tech nerds. But it's not going to be the mainstream choice for watching movies. An expensive piece of hardware with expensive discs and no selection is not going to cut it in a horrible economy. People will stick with their current setup, using VOD, or buying a cheap upsampling DVD player.

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Neither is profitable. Microsoft made money for a few months per console before the price cut reportedly put them back into a loss on each console sold. Either way, both companies are in WAY over their head in losses for their hardware.

You're comparing apples to oranges. RainMaker compared the whole product division and you're comparing just the hardware. Microsoft may well still be losing money on each console sold, but it doesn't matter because they knew it was a loss leader. They make money on every game sold (even the ones they don't publish themselves), Live, and everything else with an Xbox logo.

PS3 lost more money on each console sale and never really hit enough of a critical mass to make that loss back on software and accessories and they don't have the same reliable revenue stream from online services as Microsoft.

Also, the comment you make regarding consoles being 'loss leaders' is extremely short-sighted. The Wii has been profitable from the start. After the fall by both MS and Sony this generation, you can be sure that they'll be moving to a 'profit from the start' model in future generations. The PS4 is reportedly going to be basically PS3.5. They'll have a lot of the same chips in the PS4 with a tweak on the system speed. Nothing firm has come out of MS concerning their plans for the future, but I'd be shocked to see them introduce another Xbox that isn't profitable from the start.

The Wii has been wildly successful, but its a little early to say that it will kill the hardware-as-a-loss-leader model that every manufacturer other than Nintendo (and even them for the N64!) has been following since the PSX. I think it will certainly keep future consoles from over-reaching as much in that regard as the PS3 did this generation.

The 'digital card' has been played over and over in these discussions without much merit. We'll just agree to disagree. The internet isn't going to be fast enough to deliver Blu-ray quality on a mass market level.

People are so fixated on the internet as the next-gen video delivery mechanism and it probably will be eventually. Right now though, I can get near-Blu-Ray quality, 1080p movies on-demand through DISH Network so technology isn't a limiting factor.

The bigger question though is who is to say that the next-gen of video after DVD has to be high-def? Maybe the next-gen is just DVD-quality delivered on-demand over the internet and everyone's perfectly happy with that? What I mean is that BR isn't just fighting a battle against a single opponent.... it has to beat out like five or six opponents.

Also, your assumption that last year should have been the year for BR are highly flawed when compared to previous market trends. Both VHS and DVD had their breakout year in their 3rd holiday season. This holiday season is the 3rd for Blu-ray and major retailers are asking their sales staff to emphasize sales of HDTV's and Blu-ray.

Agreed. This is the make or break year for BR. If its not at critical mass after this Christmas, its a niche product. Looks like they may be able to reach the $200 price point just in time, but that might not even be enough with the economy the way it is now...

Having said that you can't compare BR to VHS or DVD. They faced such significantly different competition an environments that there isn't really much commonality to anchor any comparison.

[gstelmack]

Are the $200 BR players going to be 2.0? Or the older 1.1 models? Will they be upgradable? Are they still dog slow to actually load a disc?

$200 DVD players were actually pretty good. How do the $200 Blu-Ray players stack up quality-wise? Or do you still need to spend $400 on a PS3 to get a good, stable, fast, upgradable player?

[RainMaker]

Another difference is that one of the nice things about DVD was that you could go back 10-20 years in movies and TV shows without losing much quality. Nowadays, unless it's shot specifically for HD, the Blu-Ray is worthless. It limits consumers to new movie releases. As someone who owns a ton of DVDs, the biggest asset was that I could buy up movies I loved from 10 years ago. Only about 20% of the DVDs I purchased were new releases.