2014 OFFICIAL NCAA Tournament Thread: Connecticut wins the title

[mauchow]

#13 KenPom team is an 11 seed... Tennessee. Ouch.

And double ouch for Iowa considering where they were just a month ago. I was going to give Iowa some love in the tourney but no way will I now with them facing a tough Tennessee team.

5 seeded UMass is #52 in Kenpom. Ouch for them as they get the winner of UT or Iowa.

[mauchow]

Harvard over Cinci? That's an interesting 12 over 5 matchup.

NDSU over Oklahoma could be an interesting one, too.

I don't see any 13 over 4's this year.

Louisville and MSU as 4's.. Ridiculous. I feel REALLY bad for Wichita with the Louisville draw for S16. Rematch of last year's F4 though.

[tarcone]

Midwest is brutal

Iowa sneaks in. I wonder if they are going to become interested again.

[sterlingice]

Poor Wichita State. Brutalized by the committee.

SI

[Butter]

Louisville's RPI was like 20. I'm not sure why everyone is so shocked by their placement. According to the S-curve, they were one off a 3 seed.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Louisville's RPI was like 20. I'm not sure why everyone is so shocked by their placement. According to the S-curve, they were one off a 3 seed.

Vegas and computers love Louisville.

[mauchow]

Kentucky, Pitt (though not in recent years) , Ok St and Gonzaga will be interesting second round upset options over their respective one seeds.

[tarcone]

When i saw Nebraska at a #11, I thought Iowa was NIT bound. Still a little shocked we made it in.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Kentucky, Pitt (though not in recent years) , Ok St and Gonzaga will be interesting second round upset options over their respective one seeds.

Pitt has never beaten a higher seed in the Jamie Dixon era (this is his 11th season and 10th NCAA appearance).

[Wolfpack]

I can't begin to describe how surprised I am. I was so sure State wouldn't get in that I didn't bother with recording the selection show because we wouldn't be at home tonight.

I only found out when we stopped by the grocery store on the way home. I checked the local news app while waiting in the car and saw the giblet of a headline that said "Four Triangle Teams Make Tourney; State..." (rest of headline was cut off in the app) I had to double check to make sure that yes, there are just four potential NCAA D-I teams in the Triangle that could even qualify before thinking State made it. (the rest of the article title turned out to be "State Squeaks In")

So, State got rewarded, then got punished. Effectively a road game in the play-in round against Xavier, then even if they survive that, they're in the most brutal bracket of the four so getting any further than the second round against St. Louis means Louisville most likely. Yeah, I'm thinking State will do good to just point out to future recruits, "We made the NCAAs three years in a row."

[Matthean]

I still find it odd that a team which couldn't come within three games of winning their conference nor made it to their conference's title game earns a #2.

What I saw of the Michigan and MSU game was MSU played in fear of losing a third time and Michigan was happy to be a #2 seed in the tourney. To bad McGary was never healthy for the series. It would have been fun to see three games with both teams being healthy.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Matthean

I still find it odd that a team which couldn't come within three games of winning their conference nor made it to their conference's title game earns a #2.

What I saw of the Michigan and MSU game was MSU played in fear of losing a third time and Michigan was happy to be a #2 seed in the tourney. To bad McGary was never healthy for the series. It would have been fun to see three games with both teams being healthy.

Wisconsin has wins vs 2 #1 seeds and a #2 seed.. just sayin'. RPI helped Wisconsin out big time and I said it when it happened that the Florida win would go a long ways for us getting a 2/3 type seeding... and it did happen. I was expecting a 3 seed but RPI rules with this committee. Wisconsin should be a 3 or 4 according to KenPom, so I will be extremely thrilled with the bracket for Wisconsin.

I am really curious at a Virginia/MSU Potential Sweet 16 matchup.

[Lathum]

My wife just filled out her bracket. She has Creighton playing Villanova in the finals with Creighton winning.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by cartman

That is for the Billion Dollar challenge. You don't have to enter a cell for a regular bracket.

I get that mobile phone text with the link you give.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I get that mobile phone text with the link you give.

You can skip it. They are trying to steer people to the Billion Dollar Bracket stuff.

[Thomkal]

Coastal Carolina for the first ever #16 team to beat a #1!...okay maybe not. Happy Coastal didn't get the dreaded play-in game, wished they had drawn Wichita State however.

[RainMaker]

I don't think we'll see a lot of big upsets this year in the 1st round. Lot of regular season champs didn't win their tourney from the smaller conferences. In many cases the 3rd or 4th best team from those conferences are in.

[Izulde]

Already knew UNLV wasn't making the tournament, but to not even get an NIT invite is disappointing. That said, 13 spots went to regular season conference champions who didn't earn an auto or at-large bid, so it's understandable.

Fanbase is split between those wanting to fire Rice, and those who realize that if he goes, we lose our awesome recruiting class we've got coming in next year.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Matthean

I still find it odd that a team which couldn't come within three games of winning their conference nor made it to their conference's title game earns a #2.

I think with as many criteria go into picking and seeding, starting any statement with "I find it odd that a team which can't meet criteria 1 or criteria 2" sounds kindof loaded, even if those singular statements are about RPI, kenpom ranking, conference title winning, conference tournament winning, or recent play as there are a lot of different factors at work.

SI

[RainMaker]

Wichita State got fucked pretty hard.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Wolfpack

So, State got rewarded, then got punished. Effectively a road game in the play-in round against Xavier...

Don't be too sure about that. The City of Dayton is with you.

[Arles]

For those who are on the ESPN train of counting out Arizona for even the final four. Just remember that the #1 defensive team (adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions) has won 9 of past 11 titles. UA is #1 by a mile. I feel if players of Arizona wore a jersey with Pitt, Michigan State, Syracuse or Villanova - ESPN would be fawning all over them. Good hard nosed east coast defensive basketball. But, in Arizona, it's like they are less "real" defense for being out west.

Arizona may lose, the tourney is kind of a crap shoot these days. But the uniformed dismissal of them by the ESPN talking heads is surprising to me. Nate Silver has a better handle and has avoided the Michigan State love fest on ESPN. His top 3 odds for the title are: Louisville 15%, FL 14%, AZ 13%. Much more realistic to me.

[Logan]

Hmm.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Arles

For those who are on the ESPN train of counting out Arizona for even the final four. Just remember that the #1 defensive team (adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions) has won 9 of past 11 titles. UA is #1 by a mile. I feel if players of Arizona wore a jersey with Pitt, Michigan State, Syracuse or Villanova - ESPN would be fawning all over them. Good hard nosed east coast defensive basketball. But, in Arizona, it's like they are less "real" defense for being out west.

Arizona may lose, the tourney is kind of a crap shoot these days. But the uniformed dismissal of them by the ESPN talking heads is surprising to me. Nate Silver has a better handle and has avoided the Michigan State love fest on ESPN. His top 3 odds for the title are: Louisville 15%, FL 14%, AZ 13%. Much more realistic to me.

They have a tough second game but, as a #1 seed, I'd take their bracket over any other except maybe the South (if Joel Embiid can't go). I'm finding it hard to pick against a Florida-Arizona final. However, having watched so many Lute Olson teams choke in the tourney, I can't get that out of my mind even though he's retired.

SI

[Matthean]

FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA Tournament Predictions

Hover over the team names to find the percentages. UL looks to have the highest at 15%.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Logan

Hmm.

I was talking about the 2-hour bracketology special with Bilas, Digger, Vitale, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg.

I dont even know two thirds of the people listed there.

[Butter]

Well since you don't know them, I guess we can throw their opinions straight in the garbage.

[molson]

It was kind of funny that everyone on that show picked Michigan St. to win the whole thing, but that wasn't a slight on Arizona specifically. (I'd say it was more a slight to Virginia). Anyway, people are always going to dismiss a fan's claims that their team isn't getting respect. There's built-in bias there. And who cares who they're predicting anyway? Nobody but Arizona fans are even going to remember if they win the whole thing. People love when talking heads predict things, so they do it, but no matter what the prediction, somebody's going to be pissed off. (Except in this one instance, Michigan St, but, I'm sure the Spartans are "disrespected" by some other predictor.) It seems like sometimes people are more concerned about who Dick Vitale thinks is going to win a game, then who actually wins the game. I guarantee I could find dozens of "experts" predicting Arizona isn't making the elite 8, and I can find many more that says they're winning the whole thing. It's just that time of year.

[Arles]

Given none saved Katz has had one minute of airtime outside of maybe the Ocho, I think it's safe to say they don't reflect the majority opinion of ESPN analysts.

[Arles]

My point was guys like Bilas, Seth and Digger always love the defensive minded teams from the Big 10/Big East/ACC. Odd that none even have Arizona in the final four

[Logan]

I just found it funny because I happened to have been on the site just prior to reading the post, and noticed it was the one region with a consensus pick.

According to Vegas, Arizona has the 4th lowest odds to win the tourney.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Matthean

FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA Tournament Predictions

Hover over the team names to find the percentages. UL looks to have the highest at 15%.

Coastal Carolina has the highest percentage chance of winning its first round match out of the 16 seeds...okay its only a 4% chance but still.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Don't be too sure about that. The City of Dayton is with you.

Assuming Dayton fans don't scalp their tickets, Xavier will have a very hostile crowd against them at Dayton.

[revrew]

Can someone please explain this play-in stuff to me? How does a tourney of 64 teams have 68 teams?

I thought, when this play-in business first started a few years ago, that it was a way for tiny conference teams to get a crack at it: Play-in game to see who gets to be a #16 seed.

But now I see Iowa vs. Tennessee to be an 11 seed? WTHeck? Why isn't, say, Iowa an 11 seed and Tennessee a 12? Or vice versa? How are you good enough to be a 12 seed, but not good enough to be in the field of 64? If there's that many little, garbage conferences filling up the 12-16 seeds, why not have THEM play in to see who's the better 16 seed? Why are major conference teams playing in to see who can be an 11?

I don't get it.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by revrew

Can someone please explain this play-in stuff to me? How does a tourney of 64 teams have 68 teams?

I thought, when this play-in business first started a few years ago, that it was a way for tiny conference teams to get a crack at it: Play-in game to see who gets to be a #16 seed.

But now I see Iowa vs. Tennessee to be an 11 seed? WTHeck? Why isn't, say, Iowa an 11 seed and Tennessee a 12? Or vice versa? How are you good enough to be a 12 seed, but not good enough to be in the field of 64? If there's that many little, garbage conferences filling up the 12-16 seeds, why not have THEM play in to see who's the better 16 seed? Why are major conference teams playing in to see who can be an 11?

I don't get it.

They came up with the concept of "last four in", the last four teams to get at-large bids. Then they also take the 4 lowest automatic qualifiers and match them up. So two games between the last four in and two games between the 4 worst auto-bid teams. That's 68, which after those four games are played gets the entries down to 64. It has been this way since 2011.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by revrew

Can someone please explain this play-in stuff to me? How does a tourney of 64 teams have 68 teams?

I thought, when this play-in business first started a few years ago, that it was a way for tiny conference teams to get a crack at it: Play-in game to see who gets to be a #16 seed.

But now I see Iowa vs. Tennessee to be an 11 seed? WTHeck? Why isn't, say, Iowa an 11 seed and Tennessee a 12? Or vice versa? How are you good enough to be a 12 seed, but not good enough to be in the field of 64? If there's that many little, garbage conferences filling up the 12-16 seeds, why not have THEM play in to see who's the better 16 seed? Why are major conference teams playing in to see who can be an 11?

I don't get it.

I was confused too. I'll post the replies from someone on Deadspin who really does.

Because those are the last at-large teams in the tournament. They literally have to play their way into the main field. If the NCAA really wanted to be fair, all four PIGs would be at-larges. But since there's a financial benefit to winning the PIG, they kind of throw teams a bone—since 16 seeds almost inevitably come from conferences that desperately need the money.

Teams get bonus payments (spread out over six years) for every game they win at the NCAA tournament. It does not matter if that game is in the "preliminary round" or in the "second round," et cetera. Since it's easier to win a PIG than a regular opening weekend game, there's a benefit there. VCU was able to lock up Shaka Smart in part because they played one more game at the NCAA tournament that year than anybody else other than the national finalists (due to starting the tournament in the PIG). They had five wins, which given the money is spread out over six years meant they had a guaranteed source of significant income that they could allocate toward a new contract for their coach.

Lot of weirdness this year with BYU and Dayton being low seeds. BYU has specific conditions (at each seed there's only one pod/region they can be assigned to because they refuse to play on Sundays) and Dayton can't be one of the final at-larges because they host the PIGs. Teams can be moved up or down up to two seeds based on these and other, more general conditions (you can't face a team from your own conference in the first two rounds, et cetera).

[molson]

"Dayton can't be one of the final at-larges because they host the PIGs"

The NCAA says that's not technically true, though I wonder if the selection committee still just makes it easier for everyone and avoids that situation.

NCAA OK with Dayton playing in First Four at home

Edit: As for the rest of it, I remember when the Play-in-games started, a lot of people complained that an automatic qualifier had to win a game just to get into the main tournament, and that if there had to be play-in games, at-large teams should be involved in them. This compromise seems to work pretty well.

[sterlingice]

I don't think we have an FOFC Bracket group, do we? If so, I'll create one in Yahoo

SI

[sterlingice]

Yahoo pickem link in the first post. Here, too:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation

If that link doesn't work:
Your pool ID# is 223177 and your password is: trout

SI

[Butter]

Originally Posted by molson

"Dayton can't be one of the final at-larges because they host the PIGs"

The NCAA says that's not technically true, though I wonder if the selection committee still just makes it easier for everyone and avoids that situation.

NCAA OK with Dayton playing in First Four at home

Edit: As for the rest of it, I remember when the Play-in-games started, a lot of people complained that an automatic qualifier had to win a game just to get into the main tournament, and that if there had to be play-in games, at-large teams should be involved in them. This compromise seems to work pretty well.

Ask any Xavier fan, they'll tell you the only reason they're in the play-in game and UD is not is because the NCAA wanted to avoid putting Dayton at home and it was just a minor bump up anyway... but they still got screwed by it.

Which is not true if you take a look at the final seed list released by the committee.

But seriously, go Wolfpack.

[MizzouRah]

Damn you Mizzou.. where is the NIT bracket?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I don't think we have an FOFC Bracket group, do we? If so, I'll create one in Yahoo

SI

We do, it is halfway down on the first page of this thread

[sterlingice]

I must be dense and/or blind (both possible) because I still can't find it.

I see 2 Top Gun threads, a $10 thread, Starting Ten, and Pick 5. However, no boring "just for bragging rights" pickem

SI

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I must be dense and/or blind (both possible) because I still can't find it.

I see 2 Top Gun threads, a $10 thread, Starting Ten, and Pick 5. However, no boring "just for bragging rights" pickem

SI

Down the thread. Not forum.

Its also on the first post in this thread.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yahoo pickem link in the first post. Here, too:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation

If that link doesn't work:
Your pool ID# is 223177 and your password is: trout

SI

Is this just a braggin rights bracket for us FOFCers?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I must be dense and/or blind (both possible) because I still can't find it.

I see 2 Top Gun threads, a $10 thread, Starting Ten, and Pick 5. However, no boring "just for bragging rights" pickem

SI

This one:

Originally Posted by cartman

Set up a pool on Yahoo. The first 15 million to register can also try for the Warren Buffet $1 Billion challenge.

Here's the invite link:
College Basketball Tourney Pick'em - Yahoo Sports - Group Invitation

pwd: trout

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Down the thread. Not forum.

Its also on the first post in this thread.

My bad. I've added the first one as #1 in the first post in the thread and added the second as #2. I guess I'll have 3 brackets this year. Sorry about making a second FOFC group.

However, if you go to the group (FOFC #1), you can just check on "join" pool, if you want to use the same bracket for each. I think I'll do my "serious" bracket and "upset" bracket separately, tho.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Is this just a braggin rights bracket for us FOFCers?

Indeed it is!

SI

[Butter]

A couple of bored UD students decided to make the short walk to heckle X as they had their "open to the public" practice prior to tomorrow night's game:

Twitter / slrussell: Dayton fans chanting "Let's ...

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Indeed it is!

SI

IN, thanks!