2010 NFL Offseason Thread - Offseason ends at 6 pm est

[RainMaker]

As a fan of a team who had a dominant DT a few years ago (Tommie Harris), it can change the entire team. It is worth taking a chance on because they can literally make everyone on the team look good.

Harris commanded a double team on every down which left the ends and other tackle with one blocker. The linebackers like Urlacher and Briggs had free reign. Pass rush was so good that it made our corners and safeties look like Pro Bowlers. I mean Nathan Vasher got a huge contract and made the Pro Bowl thanks to Harris. I still contend that if he didn't get hurt, the Bears would have won the Super Bowl in 2006.

Anyways, the Rams would be insane to pass on Suh. He's already got NFL size and moves. Plus the word is that his work ethic is incredible.

[RainMaker]

Not sure if this was posted, but apparently Jamarcus Russell left town early and skipped out on final meetings for a trip to Vegas.

Candid Cam: JaMarcus Russell's Vegas vacation? - Inside Bay Area

If I'm the Raiders, I cut the guy. Seriously, he's not going to change. He's a fat loser who got his money and doesn't care. He's Ryan Leaf.

[flere-imsaho]

I doubt Jay Cutler would be willing to put in the kind of work necessary to be successful under Mike Martz, given that Martz tends to install ridiculously complex systems.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Logan

Mario Williams?

edit: Courtney Brown was a miss in 2000, but the prior #1 overall DE was Bruce Smith in '85.

edit #2: As I look on wikipedia, going back further...

1976: Lee Roy Selmon - 6 Pro Bowls
1974: Too Tall Jones - HoF
1973: John Matsuzak - Miss
1967: Bubba Smith - HoF

So it looks like 1.1 DEs have been pretty damn successful. Of course, all this is contingent on Suh actually being a DE, and he's looking more like a DT.

I think maybe what I was trying to say is that easier to find value at DE in rounds 2 and 3 than it is on QBs. Maybe it's because more QBs are drafted higher up, but the sack leaderboards are studded with guys taken later, whereas outside of Romo and Brady, the majority of QBs that are successful are taken in the first 2 rounds. Obviously not saying taking a QB in the first is even sometimes a boon (hello Alex Smith, Leaf, Carr, Akili, and Cade).

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Ken Laird just reported on ESPN radio from the Southside that Bruce Arians is going to be out.

Arians will return to Steelers | ProFootballTalk.com

Arians to return.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Arians will return to Steelers | ProFootballTalk.com

Arians to return.

Yeah but they fired the O-Line coach.

[DaddyTorgo]

Quarterbacks: Best and Worst

• Top 5
  
  1) Tom Brady, New England Patriots: 2,159 DYAR (2,170 passing DYAR, -11 rushing)
  2) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: 1,918 DYAR (1,919 passing DYAR, -2 rushing)
  3) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: 1,911 DYAR (1,932 passing DYAR, -21 rushing)
  4) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: 1,884 DYAR (1,846 passing DYAR, 39 rushing)
  5) Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings: 1,797 DYAR (1,803 passing DYAR, -6 rushing)

Analysis: How are Peyton Manning and Drew Brees not, in some order, 1-2? The answer is strength of schedule. The difference between Brady's DVOA and VOA (our DVOA statistic, minus the defensive adjustments) is 9.5 percentage points, the largest such figure in the league for any quarterback with more than 100 attempts. That makes sense when you look at Brady's schedule: Over the course of the season, the Patriots played the pass defenses DVOA ranked first (the New York Jets, who they played twice), second (Carolina Panthers), third (Buffalo Bills, again twice), fifth (Denver Broncos), sixth (Baltimore Ravens, with a second matchup coming this weekend) and ninth (Saints). That's half a season against defenses ranked in the top 10, plus two games against the defense ranked 11th (Miami Dolphins). Brady had only one game against a pass defense ranked in the bottom five. Based on our numbers, Brady played the hardest schedule of pass defenses of any quarterback in the past 15 years.

• Bottom 5
  
  1) JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders: -722 DYAR (-755 passing DYAR, 33 rushing)
  2) Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: -498 DYAR (-531 passing DYAR, 33 rushing)
  3) Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs: -483 DYAR (-460 passing DYAR, -20 rushing)
  4) Keith Null, St. Louis Rams: -402 DYAR (-394 passing DYAR, -7 rushing)
  5) Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns: -342 DYAR (-361 passing DYAR, 19 rushing)

Analysis: Russell's minus-722 DYAR is not only the worst by a wide margin, but it stands as the fifth-worst single-season quarterback DYAR in the 16-year history of the metric. He finished ahead of only David Carr (2002, -1,075 DYAR), Bobby Hoying (1998, -1,004 DYAR), Alex Smith (2005, -910 DYAR), and Akili Smith (2000, -733 DYAR). Russell recorded positive DYAR only twice during the season, in Week 1 (19 DYAR) and Week 15 (17 DYAR). On a bright note, he finished last for the week only once.


Null's inclusion on this list is also remarkable considering that he only played four games, but his week-by-week DYAR totals go minus-191, minus-60, minus-85 and minus-67. He never made it out of the bottom six in DYAR during any of the weeks he started.


Other Quarterback Trends



Better than his standard statistics made him look: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Outside of Brady, Ryan had the biggest difference between his DVOA and VOA, 8.3 percentage points. (Backup Chris Redman was at 9.1 percent.) Although Ryan's sophomore season was considered a disappointment by most, his DVOA only fell from an elite 30.4 percent in 2008 to a very good 16.7 percent this season. If you believed that Ryan was a star a year ago, his advanced metrics suggest that's still the case.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Yeah but they fired the O-Line coach.

They better fire their special teams coach(es).

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by dervack

I'm not sure why anyone of substance would come to coach the Bears O. It'll be a one-year deal only as another bad season and the entire coaching staff and GM gets overhauled.

This is the main reason I'm hopeful that Bates won't go to Chicago. I know a lot of SC fans who want him to leave, but I'm not convinced we'll get someone better and I think he is only going to improve with a year of experience.

[Logan]

Weis and Pioli, back together...

Sources: Charlie Weis to become Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator - ESPN

[Atocep]

People forget that Suh has already missed a season because of knee surgery and banged up his knee again 2 years later. He could very well be a guy that slides because of injury concerns. Especially with guys like Eric Berry and Gerald McCoy in the same draft.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I don't disagree, but that's different than them being able to get an NFL starting QB in R2 this year.

I'm not sure there are any clear cut starting QB's in the draft.. to me, it's too muddy at that position for a clear 1.1 pick.

I just feel Suh is so far ahead of being a sure thing, that I don't see how any team could NOT take him and feel good about someone else at that spot.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Atocep

People forget that Suh has already missed a season because of knee surgery and banged up his knee again 2 years later. He could very well be a guy that slides because of injury concerns. Especially with guys like Eric Berry and Gerald McCoy in the same draft.

But hasn't he played two years of injury free, dominating football?

Eric Berry is phenomenal, but, he's still a safety. Zero chance of being the #1 pick.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Weis and Pioli, back together...

Sources: Charlie Weis to become Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator - ESPN

I guess this lets us know who is in charge in KC. Pioli appears to be pulling the strings.

I saw that KC along with the Giants are pursuing Romeo Crennel as well. Trying to get the old band together again apparantly.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Quarterbacks: Best and Worst

• Top 5
  
  1) Tom Brady, New England Patriots: 2,159 DYAR (2,170 passing DYAR, -11 rushing)
  2) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: 1,918 DYAR (1,919 passing DYAR, -2 rushing)
  3) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: 1,911 DYAR (1,932 passing DYAR, -21 rushing)
  4) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: 1,884 DYAR (1,846 passing DYAR, 39 rushing)
  5) Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings: 1,797 DYAR (1,803 passing DYAR, -6 rushing)

Analysis: How are Peyton Manning and Drew Brees not, in some order, 1-2? The answer is strength of schedule. The difference between Brady's DVOA and VOA (our DVOA statistic, minus the defensive adjustments) is 9.5 percentage points, the largest such figure in the league for any quarterback with more than 100 attempts. That makes sense when you look at Brady's schedule: Over the course of the season, the Patriots played the pass defenses DVOA ranked first (the New York Jets, who they played twice), second (Carolina Panthers), third (Buffalo Bills, again twice), fifth (Denver Broncos), sixth (Baltimore Ravens, with a second matchup coming this weekend) and ninth (Saints). That's half a season against defenses ranked in the top 10, plus two games against the defense ranked 11th (Miami Dolphins). Brady had only one game against a pass defense ranked in the bottom five. Based on our numbers, Brady played the hardest schedule of pass defenses of any quarterback in the past 15 years.

• Bottom 5
  
  1) JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders: -722 DYAR (-755 passing DYAR, 33 rushing)
  2) Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: -498 DYAR (-531 passing DYAR, 33 rushing)
  3) Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs: -483 DYAR (-460 passing DYAR, -20 rushing)
  4) Keith Null, St. Louis Rams: -402 DYAR (-394 passing DYAR, -7 rushing)
  5) Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns: -342 DYAR (-361 passing DYAR, 19 rushing)

Analysis: Russell's minus-722 DYAR is not only the worst by a wide margin, but it stands as the fifth-worst single-season quarterback DYAR in the 16-year history of the metric. He finished ahead of only David Carr (2002, -1,075 DYAR), Bobby Hoying (1998, -1,004 DYAR), Alex Smith (2005, -910 DYAR), and Akili Smith (2000, -733 DYAR). Russell recorded positive DYAR only twice during the season, in Week 1 (19 DYAR) and Week 15 (17 DYAR). On a bright note, he finished last for the week only once.


Null's inclusion on this list is also remarkable considering that he only played four games, but his week-by-week DYAR totals go minus-191, minus-60, minus-85 and minus-67. He never made it out of the bottom six in DYAR during any of the weeks he started.


Other Quarterback Trends



Better than his standard statistics made him look: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Outside of Brady, Ryan had the biggest difference between his DVOA and VOA, 8.3 percentage points. (Backup Chris Redman was at 9.1 percent.) Although Ryan's sophomore season was considered a disappointment by most, his DVOA only fell from an elite 30.4 percent in 2008 to a very good 16.7 percent this season. If you believed that Ryan was a star a year ago, his advanced metrics suggest that's still the case.

WTF does any of that mean? I feel like I'm back in the military with a frackin acrunym for taking a shit.... ""I'll be OOC for JAB due to TAS"

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

Worth the read.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I guess this lets us know who is in charge in KC. Pioli appears to be pulling the strings.

I saw that KC along with the Giants are pursuing Romeo Crennel as well. Trying to get the old band together again apparantly.

Isn't Pioli the GM? Why wouldn't he be pulling the strings??

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by RendeR

WTF does any of that mean? I feel like I'm back in the military with a frackin acrunym for taking a shit.... ""I'll be OOC for JAB due to TAS"

I want to B my L on her T's

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Isn't Pioli the GM? Why wouldn't he be pulling the strings??

Point being that the head coach selected his coordinator in his first year. It's obvious that Pioli is the one making the selections this time around.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

As a fan of a team who had a dominant DT a few years ago (Tommie Harris), it can change the entire team. It is worth taking a chance on because they can literally make everyone on the team look good.

Harris commanded a double team on every down which left the ends and other tackle with one blocker. The linebackers like Urlacher and Briggs had free reign. Pass rush was so good that it made our corners and safeties look like Pro Bowlers. I mean Nathan Vasher got a huge contract and made the Pro Bowl thanks to Harris. I still contend that if he didn't get hurt, the Bears would have won the Super Bowl in 2006.

Anyways, the Rams would be insane to pass on Suh. He's already got NFL size and moves. Plus the word is that his work ethic is incredible.

+1000

DT and o-linemen are the most underrated positions on the field. they make everyone around them look better. take a few good linemen away and that "stud" qb looks average and so do your wr's. same goes on defense

[NewIdentity]

I still do not understand why Shanahan would sign with the Redskins for $7 million a year, when he is making $8 million a year with the Broncos staying at home?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by NewIdentity

I still do not understand why Shanahan would sign with the Redskins for $7 million a year, when he is making $8 million a year with the Broncos staying at home?

He likes to coach?

[Kodos]

Maybe he likes to coach.

[Honolulu_Blue]

He likes to coach!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

He likes to coach football?

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

They better fire their special teams coach(es).

Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin continued to make changes in his coaching staff today, firing special teams coordinator Bob Ligashesky, the Post-Gazette has learned.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Point being that the head coach selected his coordinator in his first year. It's obvious that Pioli is the one making the selections this time around.

Actually, ESPN radio Mike and Mike/Cowherd said word on the inside was the Coach was pushhing for this more than Pioli.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Mangini and staff to stay on, per Schefter.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Mora out in Seattle, per Glazer.

[path12]

Interesting about Mora. Given that all indications from ownership were that he was not going to lose his job, the only thing I can think of is that the rumors of the team not "buying in" to his program was true.

Which also indicates that we've got a bunch of bitch-ass crybaby players. I think this team really just is old and not all that good anymore.

The mixed messages from management don't bode well though, especially with Paul Allen being ill. It's going to be a challenge for whoever the next GM is.

[Travis]

I think this is a good move for the Seahawks. I had high hopes for Mora, but the on field product and rumors about the locker room were very bad signs for a guy who had been in that locker room long enough that he should have known how to deal with the guys.

They may also be in position to greatly capitalize on the cap free year if it happens. Given the rules in place for that eventuality, an owner with deep pockets willing to eat a few contracts could fix a lot of problems that with cuts they probably wouldn't consider otherwise.

Very important offseason coming up for the team and if they hire the proper people for the GM and HC spots as well as hit on 3 of their top 4 picks, this team could turn it around in a hurry.

[flere-imsaho]

You also have to wonder if Seattle's trying to make a run at one of the "Big 3" unemployed HCs out there (Cowher, Shanahan, Gruden), though admittedly more than one of them might already be effectively gone.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Shanahan is the head coach of the Washington Redskins.

[DeToxRox]

ESPN seems to think it'll be Carroll to the Hawks. They just can't go a season without shamelessly throwing his name out there can they?

[DeToxRox]

Rest easy USC fans, as Mort says he'll be shocked if it didn't happen. Expect Cowher now.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Rest easy USC fans, as Mort says he'll be shocked if it didn't happen. Expect Cowher now.

I was never worried about that for a second... now when a NFL team moves to Los Angeles, I will get a bit worried.

[DeToxRox]

I don't see it happening but as I think about it, Carroll to the Hawks isn't that absurd. He'd get full control of the football operations which it seems like he wants. So if that happened it wouldn't be too nuts.

[Kodos]

When you have a good thing going in college, why go back to the NFL, where you have already failed (for the most part)?

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Kodos

When you have a good thing going in college, why go back to the NFL, where you have already failed (for the most part)?

I wouldn't say he failed. He finished 33-31, and 1-2 in the playoffs. His last 3 years in NE he was 10-7, 9-7, 8-8. Not great but not as awful as a lot of people make him out to be.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

I don't see it happening but as I think about it, Carroll to the Hawks isn't that absurd. He'd get full control of the football operations which it seems like he wants. So if that happened it wouldn't be too nuts.

Especially if he's worried about the NCAA coming to get the program eventually.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Especially if he's worried about the NCAA coming to get the program eventually.

Also a very good point.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

I wouldn't say he failed. He finished 33-31, and 1-2 in the playoffs. His last 3 years in NE he was 10-7, 9-7, 8-8. Not great but not as awful as a lot of people make him out to be.

Failure. I welcome him to come back and replace Belicheck.

[DaddyTorgo]

Carroll may have been 33-31, but by the end of his tenure he had totally lost the players by treating them like college kids (from what i remember - that was before i got very into football).

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Carroll may have been 33-31, but by the end of his tenure he had totally lost the players by treating them like college kids (from what i remember - that was before i got very into football).

Yup. He took a pretty decent roster and drove it into the ground.

[path12]

So Mora is too buddy-buddy rah-rah with players to control the team so we're now talking about Pete Carroll???

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Especially if he's worried about the NCAA coming to get the program eventually.

Reggie Bush situation?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Reggie Bush situation?

Bullet point #1.

There are other bullets.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Which also indicates that we've got a bunch of bitch-ass crybaby players. I think this team really just is old and not all that good anymore.

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

ESPN seems to think it'll be Carroll to the Hawks. They just can't go a season without shamelessly throwing his name out there can they?

Perfect. Been there, done that, except now Pete will have to learn how to coach players with less money.

[RainMaker]

Yeah, Carroll is high-tailing it out of there in the event the NCAA grows some balls and penalizes USC.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I was never worried about that for a second... now when a NFL team moves to Los Angeles, I will get a bit worried.

I'm now worried. This has nothing to do with NCAA sanctions and everything to do with Paul Allen reportedly offering Pete close to 50 million over 5 years and complete control.

I do love the backup plan of Mike Riley if Pete leaves. He wanted to come to USC years ago when SD wouldn't let him interview and he did wonderful things with Canfield's development. I think he would help retain at least the offensive recruits in this class.