Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Saying that black people are voting for Obama solely because he's black

... is nothing but the unvarnished truth for those who wouldn't have otherwise voted.

[Butter]

Any ideas about when early voting ballots will be counted? Have they already been counted in most states, and that data will be available after poll closing? Or will they be counted last, or in concert with the other results in most areas? Just wondering how soon we will know exactly how early voting went in those states that have it.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Didn't say there was anything "wrong" with it or whatever. Just saying that a claim that there isn't a significant role played by Obama's race with black voters is so laughable that it boggles the mind.

...

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and I guess thats my question.

Is there a signifigantly higher number of blacks voting Obama for no other reason then the color of his skin? Blacks who ordinarily wouldn't have voted at all.

And if that is the case, do people find that disturbing.

To rehash a post I made on this topic...

Originally Posted by Another klinglerware post

Well, to test this theory quickly with the fewest confounds, we should look at the exit poll data in races where a black republican ran against a white democrat (since historically, black voters tend to vote overwhelmingly democratic--looking at the elections of black democrats would introduce correlation between that candidate being black and that candidate being a democrat). We would compare how the black vote split in that race vs a control race (ideally, another statewide race same state, same year).

Unfortunately, there aren't a lot examples of black republicans running for major statewide office (e.g., US Senate or State Governor). But one recent example is Maryland Senate 2006, Cardin vs Steele).

First the black voting percentages for the "control" group, the Maryland Governor's race of the same year:

Black Voters Supporting the White Democrat: 84%
Black Voters Supporting the White Republican: 15%

Now for the "test" race, the Maryland Senate Race:

Black Voters Supporting the White Democrat: 74%
Black Voters Supporting the Black Republican: 25%


So, it does seem likely that the Black Republican in that race (Steele) got a significant boost from black voters who did not vote for the white republican in the other statewide race that year. However, even in the Steele-Cardin race, black voters still voted for the democrat with a 3-1 margin. So, the more significant conclusion we can draw here is that black voters will for the most part still vote on party loyalty and issues over "racial loyalty".

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hadn't heard that one before.

Seriously?

Even my 10 year old knows that monicker and it's not even one I use often enough for him to pick up on it from me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I'll bite.

No more disturbing than say, the legions of whites who'll vote for McCain because he represents all that is great and decent about this country. (read: he's white)

I resent the "I'll bite" comment.

I think I was clear I was curious about peoples opinions. I'm not looking to bait anyone into any kind of argument.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Gee, didn't know this was going to be one of my biggest controversial comments of the day. I personally am fairly moderate and it is pretty tough finding a station that has no slant ever. Most of the stations in my mind lean left (as I feel msnbc does somewhat).. but it annoys me far less than CNN or FOX both of which seem to have horrible slants to them. Even though msnbc seems to lean left in my mind, they still have had quite a large amount of positive McCain coverage and comments all day today..

I haven't found a station that is more moderate to my liking yet.. (and no Fox is not it.. they are just as bad as CNN but in the opposite direction)

My wife takes a different approach. She watches Fox to get the right leaning slant and MSNBC to get the left leaning slant so she can see things from both polarized viewpoints (she doesn't care for CNN).

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I resent the "I'll bite" comment.

I think I was clear I was curious about peoples opinions. I'm not looking to bait anyone into any kind of argument.

Keep to yourself next time....Stupid Mets fan

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Any ideas about when early voting ballots will be counted? Have they already been counted in most states, and that data will be available after poll closing? Or will they be counted last, or in concert with the other results in most areas? Just wondering how soon we will know exactly how early voting went in those states that have it.

I think the procedure is typically done concurrent or afterwards.
And in some cases is determined by whether it's part of "early voting" versus "absentee voting" (both took place here in Georgia for example, not sure about procedures in other states).

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Obviously we must encounter different liberals.

I run into more here (Georgia, not FOFC) who couldn't spell "drill" nor find Alaska on the map.

Case in point was the charming lady in line with my wife & I that we patiently helped understand how "all this voting stuff" worked; i.e.
"No, you're not required to vote for every office if you don't want to",
"Yes, you're allowed to vote only for President",
"This? It's called a sample ballot, it just shows you what you're going to see when you get inside"

And no, I didn't make any of those up.

I've worked elections. People like that aren't exclusive to either party. Trust me.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Never underestimate the stupidity of an average voter.

I am not sure how anyone could after 2004...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Keep to yourself next time....Stupid Mets fan

lol, your probably correct.

I hope DC forgives me for sticking my nose where he thinks it doesn't belong.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hadn't heard that one before. Would that make FOX = Fascists on Xtascy?

That would actually be the opposite of Communist News Network.

[Lathum]

the above was sarcasim

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by JAG

My wife takes a different approach. She watches Fox to get the right leaning slant and MSNBC to get the left leaning slant so she can see things from both polarized viewpoints (she doesn't care for CNN).

But that is what I have THIS thread for!

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JAG

My wife takes a different approach. She watches Fox to get the right leaning slant and MSNBC to get the left leaning slant so she can see things from both polarized viewpoints (she doesn't care for CNN).

That would be the best way to do it. The beautiful thing about American TV is that you can get bullshit from all over the spectrum and as long as the 8-1 ratio doesn't affect you, you get a much better picture of what's going on.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I resent the "I'll bite" comment.

I think I was clear I was curious about peoples opinions. I'm not looking to bait anyone into any kind of argument.

Come on! Everyone knows that Werewolves are all about biting!

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Lathum

the above was sarcasim

Kurt Warner is in trouble, he scrambles and....oh....too slow.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Come on! Everyone knows that Werewolves are all about biting!

That's exactly what I was thinking.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Lathum

lol, your probably correct.

I hope DC forgives me for sticking my nose where he thinks it doesn't belong.

It was the way it was phrased that made me think it was aimed as a thiny veiled race bait. Of course, you're entitled to your views and everyone is too. Wasn't trying to attack you for asking a question or anything.

[molson]

If I was a black guy, I'd definitely be leaning towards black candidates, rooting for black coaches, rooting for black actors to win academy awards, etc.

It's pretty laughable when this kind of thing is denied or questioned, though it's coming out more in the mainstream now. I don't understand the EXTREMES of it, but I appreciate the honestly. Chris Rock said something once about being a fan of the National league and hating the American league only because the former was much faster on integration. That to me, as a white guy, seems like a ridiculous opinion to have in 2008 when anybody who made integration happen or not happen is long gone, but I found his view interesting, and a guy's feelings on something aren't wrong, they're just his feelings.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yeah.. I really am scratching my head reading replies from people to my comments. I really have a difficult time trying to understand when people are saying things they actually believe and when they just have an agenda they are pushing.

You asked for opinions and I gave mine.. so far I've had MSNBC on for several hours today and haven't been driven to change it because of it driving me crazy. For the most part all day, it has been fairly equal point and counter point with both sides fairly well represented.

Maybe some of MSNBC's political commentators that give their opinions on issues are far left, but they haven't been on much at all today and it has mostly been various members of Democrat or Republican sides giving talking points as well as news coverage.

In the past I have been very unimpressed with MSNBC. I like to think of myself as mostly in the middle with a right lean, and I have easily found MSNBC to be least objectionable of the main 3 so far.

[ISiddiqui]

Tucker Carlson with an interesting article on how Romney has set up the ground work for a run in 2012:

Romney's Game Plan - The Daily Beast

Seems like he thinks that right now it's going to be Romney vs. Palin as the big matchup in the primaries. But there is always someone you don't expect.

[timmynausea]

I'd be shocked if Palin was a real contender.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

It was the way it was phrased that made me think it was aimed as a thiny veiled race bait.

get over yourself then. Originaly I was being sarcastic but now I am offended ( as offended as one can be on an internet message board). Go through my 17K posts and find me one that even shows a borderline hint of racisim.

That the kind of shit that pisses me off ( as pissed off as you can get on an internet message board). Excuse me for being a white person wanting to have an adult discussion about a black persons motivations.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Sounds plausible, guys. Nothing shocking compared to what 'America correspondents' usually claim.

Any ideas when first reasonable results/predictions can be expected?

Vermont will probably be the first state called this year shortly after 7 pm EST. I think there's a decent chance that shortly after the polls close in California, Washington, and Oregon at 11 pm EST, Obama could exceed 270 electoral votes called for him.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Lathum

get over yourself then. Originaly I was being sarcastic but now I am offended ( as offended as one can be on an internet message board). Go through my 17K posts and find me one that even shows a borderline hint of racisim.

That the kind of shit that pisses me off ( as pissed off as you can get on an internet message board). Excuse me for being a white person wanting to have an adult discussion about a black persons motivations.

I think the nature of the thread is such that makes it touchy. Not because people can't think what they want. I think more because it so quickly devolves into absurdity rather than say, substantive discussions about very real topics/issues/things.

I misread what you said and apologize.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Go through my 17K posts and find me one that even shows a borderline hint of racisim.

(Insert joke about the disturbing number of times the word "lynch" appears in Lathum's 17,000 posts.)

[Lathum]

I didn't tip toe around anything, thats why I got annoyed.

And there was no point. It was a question, not a statement.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

(Insert joke about the disturbing number of times the word "lynch" appears in Lathum's 17,000 posts.)

I actualy laughed out loud.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

I'd be shocked if Palin was a real contender.

I would be too, as I think she lacks what it takes to stay in that position for four years versus a contrasting Romney & a similar but much more skilled politician in Huckabee.

But (relating back to the discussion of her impact earlier), polling released yesterday shows her as being the most popular of the four current candidates (P + VP) here in Georgia with the best margin of "favorable" vs "unfavorable" of the whole group.

Palin 49 favorable/39 unfavorable (+10%)
Obama 49/40 (+9%)
McCain 48/40 (+8%)
Biden 44/41 (+3%)

For comparison, same poll had McCain/Palin winning today with 50%, Obama/Biden 46%, Barr/Root 1%, Undecided 3%

Same group had figures for
-- Ohio, where Palin's 47/42 rivaled McCain's 48/44, and Obama's 48/43,
-- Florida where she was more popular than McCain 47/41 vs 48/43,
-- Pennsylvania Palin 47/40 vs McCain 48/42
-- Wisconsin Palin 48/43 vs McCain 47/45

Like I said, I don't believe she sticks, but I can see why she's considered a contender at least for the time being.

[Subby]

Flasch186

Awesomeness.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Brown Goes Down? I heard about that one on the New York Times website. It has to be good.

Or so the liberal media elites would have you believe.

(p.s. And the times had it as "Goes Down Brown")

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Or so the liberal media elites would have you believe.

(p.s. And the times had it as "Goes Down Brown")

Shit I thought it was 2 girls 1 cup...good thing I waited to tell everyone.

[Fighter of Foo]

Those numbers don't look good for Saxby. He'll do well to avoid a runoff.

14. Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Saxby Chambliss' overall job performance?
Approve 49%
Disapprove 40%
Undecided 11%


16. If the election for United States Senate were held today, whom would you vote for, Saxby Chambliss, the Republican, Jim Martin, the Democrat, or Allen Buckley, the Libertarian?
Saxby Chambliss 48%
Jim Martin 44%
Allen Buckley 4%
Undecided 4%

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Gee, didn't know this was going to be one of my biggest controversial comments of the day. I personally am fairly moderate and it is pretty tough finding a station that has no slant ever. Most of the stations in my mind lean left (as I feel msnbc does somewhat).. but it annoys me far less than CNN or FOX both of which seem to have horrible slants to them. Even though msnbc seems to lean left in my mind, they still have had quite a large amount of positive McCain coverage and comments all day today..

I haven't found a station that is more moderate to my liking yet.. (and no Fox is not it.. they are just as bad as CNN but in the opposite direction)

What really gets the right ticked at MSNBC is that they have Olbermann "as their face" who is most decidedly left and delights in taking pot shots at the right. And now they have Rachel Maddow on after him in primetime, and her show is basically a female version of his.

The station got in hot water for letting Olbermann on some of the news coverage and he started editorializing so they got rid of him and Chris Matthews, calling them too opinionated for news broadcasts.

EDIT: n/m- better to not post the 2 paragraphs I had here after this

SI

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and I guess thats my question.

Is there a signifigantly higher number of blacks voting Obama for no other reason then the color of his skin? Blacks who ordinarily wouldn't have voted at all.

And if that is the case, do people find that disturbing.

I think there are a lot of Black voters who wouldn't ordinarily vote going to the polls today to vote for the first Black man to run for president. But wait, he isn't the first Black person to run. Jesse Jackson did run as well and didn't mobilize Blacks to vote in the same fashion. So, part of it, for non-voters is his race and part of it is something else, maybe the party, maybe the issues, maybe a combination of those plus other things. For other Blacks, it has more to do with his policies and his party. And there are Blacks who will not vote for him at all.

It disturbs me if people are unrealistic about what Obama will be able to do if he wins. All of this talk about how an individual thinks life will be instantly better if he's in office is absolutely nuts. These people are the minority and on the fringe of the voting spectrum, just like the people who say Obama being elected will lead to the US being destroyed, but is still disheartening.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Those numbers don't look good for Saxby. He'll do well to avoid a runoff.

Was there anyone still expecting him to avoid a runoff? I thought that had been the foregone conclusion for at least 2-3 weeks.

For him though, as discussed earlier, a runoff is almost as good as a win.
Thing is, he's got to at least get enough turnout to get the runoff & that's at least looking iffy right now. It may come down to turnout in the rural counties & I don't know if there are enough votes there to make up for a (hypothetical) downturn in metro GOP areas.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Klinglerware

To rehash a post I made on this topic...

You make an interesting point, but it is worth noting that Steele was actively campaigning for the African-American vote, certainly moreso than his Republican counterpart.

There were two other races that year that featured similar racial breakdowns, but the difference in black support was much smaller...

Ohio

Blackwell - 20% Black
DeWine - 15% Black

Pennsylvania

Swann - 13% Black
Santorum - 10% Black

[SirFozzie]

The common wisdom is that if Virginia is called within the first hour or so after polls close, that it'll be pretty much over. Same with Pennsylvania.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Tucker Carlson with an interesting article on how Romney has set up the ground work for a run in 2012:

Romney's Game Plan - The Daily Beast

Seems like he thinks that right now it's going to be Romney vs. Palin as the big matchup in the primaries. But there is always someone you don't expect.

Like 4 years for things to drastically change in people's minds

SI

[larrymcg421]

I guess I can see why some people got annoyed, although I do believe it wasn't intentional.

Imagine if the question was asked: "So Obama is going to win 90% of the black vote, 70% of the Hispanic vote, and 60% of the female vote. If McCain still wins, will people be annoyed that white males gave him the Presidency?"

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

You make an interesting point, but it is worth noting that Steele was actively campaigning for the African-American vote, certainly moreso than his Republican counterpart.

There were two other races that year that featured similar racial breakdowns, but the difference in black support was much smaller...

Ohio

Blackwell - 20% Black
DeWine - 15% Black

Pennsylvania

Swann - 13% Black
Santorum - 10% Black

And that supports my overall point that the effect of "black voters voting for a black candidate just because he's black" is not really that significant compared to "black voters voting for a democrat because democrats are more aligned on issues black voters care about".

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

What really gets the right ticked at MSNBC is that they have Olbermann "as their face" who is most decidedly left and delights in taking pot shots at the right. And now they have Rachel Maddow on after him in primetime, and her show is basically a female version of his.

The station got in hot water for letting Olbermann on some of the news coverage and he started editorializing so they got rid of him and Chris Matthews, calling them too opinionated for news broadcasts.

SI

Keith Olberman? That's the guy that was fired from ESPN right? He bashes Republicans now? Haha! What a loser!

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Keith Olberman? That's the guy that was fired from ESPN right? He bashes Republicans now? Haha! What a loser!

As well as a host on NBC's sunday night football show, but who's counting.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I think it's the trifecta of

1. Democrat
2. Black
3. Electable

If one of those is missing, you don't see this larger black turnout.

Yep, exactly. If you move Obama to the other party, I don't think the turnout is as big for Black voters. Sure, there will be some who turn out just because he's Black and electable, but not nearly as many.

[larrymcg421]

Oh, and to answer the earlier question about why Obama won the black vote in the primaries, part of it was probably the fact that Hillary (with Bill's help) didn't really endear herself to African-Americans the way she ran her campaign.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

As well as a host on NBC's sunday night football show, but who's counting.

(and keeps beating O'Reilly in the 25-54 demographic for their time slot, but, again, who's counting)

SI

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Was there anyone still expecting him to avoid a runoff? I thought that had been the foregone conclusion for at least 2-3 weeks.

For him though, as discussed earlier, a runoff is almost as good as a win.
Thing is, he's got to at least get enough turnout to get the runoff & that's at least looking iffy right now. It may come down to turnout in the rural counties & I don't know if there are enough votes there to make up for a (hypothetical) downturn in metro GOP areas.

Yeah, I didn't realize there was a Lib running so "strongly". What I noticed in those polls was the fact that he was only at 49-50%. The Incumbent Rule says undecideds typically break 3 or 4:1 for the challenger. Combined with the high early turnout (hypothetical for Obama) and what you say above, it's not a pretty picture.

I wouldn't be so sure about Chambliss winning a runoff either. You'll have Obama literally travelling the state with Martin as well as millions of DNC money coming in, especially if it's the difference in 59 and 60.

Odds haven't moved on Intrade yet. Both Obama and Martin in GA are still 30/70 underdogs. I bought into this when it was about 10 points lower a few weeks ago, but like I said in another thread this is good value as the race is a coinflip.

[Big Fo]

Voting Machines Elect One Of Their Own As President (the Onion)

One of the more likely scenarios for a third-party candidate to shock the nation.