Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[Crim]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'll say this for the 4085th time in these threads over the past two years (JPhillips has said it a lot) but

judgment + character > experience

especially given that the relevant "experience" for President has proven difficult to define.

Flere, I agree with your equation, but you cannot discount the role of the "experience" card in campaigns.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

What I meant to say was "It's nice to see that not only the left has difficulty admitting it has lost an election fairly" - just like those on the left feel the last two were "stolen".

Once again, I haven't seen much of that either. There's plenty of fraud to go around. It'll all even out in the end. The left's claims of 'stolen' elections appear petty and childish at best. I don't think Republicans will come even close to stooping to that level. A win is a win.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Crim

Oh yeah? How about Change?

At work if something's broken we change it. That doesn't always mean better. In Obama's case it won't even mean different.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I think Crim's probably the first, at least here at FOFC.

I never said the election would be stolen, flere, or that McCain would win. I responded to the "If Obama wins by 7, oversampled his votes, blah blah" joke, because I do believe that there is voter fraud going on.

I believe that it happens in both directions, but is much more prevalent on the Democrat side.

You have misinterpreted me.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

What I meant to say was "It's nice to see that not only the left has difficulty admitting it has lost an election fairly" - just like those on the left feel the last two were "stolen".

Again, I believe McCain has lost this election fair and square. While I wholeheartedly disagree with the decision our nation is making today, I don't doubt that the result for Obama will be the will of the people.

I'd echo Jon in clarifying that I was referring to the margin of lead in the polls, and the margin of victory in some states.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

At work if something's broken we change it. That doesn't always mean better. In Obama's case it won't even mean different.

This lol'd me for some reason.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

If he hadn't chosen Palin, he'd be losing by 15+ rather than the 2-3 points he'll likely lose by today. Palin is the sole reason this election is still close.

If McCain had selected a more moderate candidate, if their entire focus of the campaign had gotten away from the religious right, the extreme social issues and focused on going with a more sound way of improving the economy be encouraging spending through less taxes and cutting of various un-needed government fat, etc.. I would have likely voted for him.

As it is, I could care less to vote for pushing the far right social agenda and I honestly don't think mcCain wanted that either but instead had his hand forced by the party, or someone just convinced him unwisely to do so. I think everyone pushing him further right is what actually caused him to lose the election. Sure he might get more votes from the far right, but those people were not voting Obama anyways. This current strategy on their part might have added more far right votes, but also pushed a good number of votes towards voting Obama. Net gain for the democrats.

[Tigercat]

I don't understand how conservatives can say that Obama is way left, and yet insist that Palin was positive or necessary for a close race or victory.

If Obama is far left, a centrist campaign should beat him right? Because the base will show up to vote against a far left candidate like Obama. And, as I have read here, we are a right center nation?

I don't understand the conservative logic, does not compute.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I took distinct pleasure in voting for Jeff Beatty, though nothing will be able to wedge Kerry out of the Senate. Maybe he'll be nominated for a post in Obama's cabinet.

I looked at Beatty some, but I couldn't find anything that he really stood strong for other than his past military experience and how his past with the CIA and in the military makes him an expert on the war in Iraq. I also looked at Underwood, and he is a complete joke of a candidate.. I really didn't see any option other than voting Kerry for senator. I don't really like him that much, but considering the other options, it didn't seem like we had a great choice for U.S. senate this time.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Once again, I haven't seen much of that either. There's plenty of fraud to go around. It'll all even out in the end. The left's claims of 'stolen' elections appear petty and childish at best. I don't think Republicans will come even close to stooping to that level. A win is a win.

You can't state that empirically though, so we'll have to wait and see until such a time as we can determine that.

[Mustang]

I'm voting in 3 hours and still don't know who I'm voting for.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Once again, I haven't seen much of that either. There's plenty of fraud to go around. It'll all even out in the end. The left's claims of 'stolen' elections appear petty and childish at best. I don't think Republicans will come even close to stooping to that level. A win is a win.

WASHINGTON – The only way Barack Obama can win in Indiana is to cheat, one of John McCain's stand-ins said Thursday.

He said votes have already been cast by "people who don't exist" and that a national voter-registration effort is "trying to steal the election in Indiana."

In an interview before headlining the Indiana Republican Party's fund-raising dinner in Indianapolis Thursday night, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Hoosiers are too smart to vote for Obama.

Democrats, he said, "can't win fairly out here."

Asked if Democrats could win without cheating, Graham said, "No. They can't win fairly out here 'cause their agenda is so far removed from the average Hoosier.

[miked]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Margin? I absolutely believe it'll be influenced by vote fraud.
Outcome? Haven't seen that asserted here.

Fraud is a problem with voter registration, not with actual voter fraud. Maybe if you had some basis of reality, you would see that vote fraud doesn't really play a big role in elections, unless you think stats like this: "In the United States, fifty-two people have been convicted of federal election fraud for voting in multiple locations since 2002" underestimate the vote fraud by 1000-fold.

Unless of course you have some statistical data to back any of your assertions up, which as usual is doubtful. Now if you'd like to talk about voter coercion and intimidation, and even disenfranchisement, then maybe things like that play a role. But please, at least consult reality sometimes.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

WASHINGTON – The only way Barack Obama can win in Indiana is to cheat, one of John McCain's stand-ins said Thursday.

He said votes have already been cast by "people who don't exist" and that a national voter-registration effort is "trying to steal the election in Indiana."

In an interview before headlining the Indiana Republican Party's fund-raising dinner in Indianapolis Thursday night, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Hoosiers are too smart to vote for Obama.

Democrats, he said, "can't win fairly out here."

Asked if Democrats could win without cheating, Graham said, "No. They can't win fairly out here 'cause their agenda is so far removed from the average Hoosier.

The discussion revolved around this thread. I'm guessing those guys didn't post in this thread, though it would make it interesting if they had. I have no doubt that you'll find an idiot here or there to claim that (yes, I include Graham in the idiot group).

I expect Indiana to be a McCain state in the end, so I'm not sure it matters all that much.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

If he hadn't chosen Palin, he'd be losing by 15+ rather than the 2-3 points he'll likely lose by today. Palin is the sole reason this election is still close.

While apparently the numbers don't support this assumption, it's really sad that people feel this way. Palin panders to the lowest common denominator. I really liked McCain. While I have lost quite a bit of respect for him over the last 4+ years or so, I still think he could make a decent president.

Palin, however, is beyond the pale. She is a divisive force and seems to bring out the worst in folks. I seriously hope she ends up a footnote, if so, that will be a very good sign for America. That said, I think she'll be around for a long, long time, which is despressing.

Palin certainly didn't influence my vote, but it certainly did make me feel better when I got to vote against her.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Mustang

I'm voting in 3 hours and still don't know who I'm voting for.

Seriously?

I thought you people were a myth!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

While apparently the numbers don't support this assumption............

As was pointed out earlier, the statistics cited in regard to this included partisan Obama voters, which is obviously not reflective of the overall effect. Many wouldn't have voted for McCain no matter what. We don't have a poll to compare what effect the other options would have had in comparison, so information in that regard is subjective at best.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

This thread does a remarkable job on both sides of echoing the talking points of the greater blogosphere.

Well in that case, I'm sure there was someone bitching if it included blogs.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by miked

Fraud is a problem with voter registration, not with actual voter fraud. Maybe if you had some basis of reality, you would see that vote fraud doesn't really play a big role in elections, unless you think stats like this: "In the United States, fifty-two people have been convicted of federal election fraud for voting in multiple locations since 2002" underestimate the vote fraud by 1000-fold.

Unless of course you have some statistical data to back any of your assertions up, which as usual is doubtful. Now if you'd like to talk about voter coercion and intimidation, and even disenfranchisement, then maybe things like that play a role. But please, at least consult reality sometimes.

Wow, miked. You sure told him.

Oh by the way, I've exceeded the speed limit in my car at least 1000 times for every ticket I've gotten. Just sayin.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Crim

Why does negative advertising against Obama have to be classified as racism, SI? There's plenty of Bill Ayers stuff out there as well. Is the good reverend off-limits simply because he's black?

I haven't seen any Ayers stuff on tv the last week in Virginia- hence why I didn't mention it. It's run its course and it didn't really work.

However, showing the Rev Wright stuff the last night before an election is clearly used to evoke a "see, look at his friend. fear the black guy when you go to the polls tomorrow" snap response.

I think it's pretty clear that when you bring back something that hasn't been used for months in a quick, sharp ad like that with the "God Damn America" clips- you know what the ad people were going for.

SI

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Crim

Seriously?

I thought you people were a myth!

Ya, seriously. I'm like a unicorn I guess.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Crim

Wow, miked. You sure told him.

Oh by the way, I've exceeded the speed limit in my car at least 1000 times for every ticket I've gotten. Just sayin.

LOL. Once again, I'd like to see numbers. But I guess it really depends on what you consider fraud. But I do love your kind of arguments. I can't really show any numbers, so who wants to watch me hit some homers!

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Crim

Again, I believe McCain has lost this election fair and square. While I wholeheartedly disagree with the decision our nation is making today, I don't doubt that the result for Obama will be the will of the people.

I agree 100%. I want to add that even though I disagree with Obama on many issues, I do not think he is an evil man. He believes that he is doing what is right to make this country better. That doesn't make him a bad man.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Ya, seriously. I'm like a unicorn I guess.

Is it that you feel that you don't know enough about either candidate or that they both appeal (or don't appeal) to you at about the same level? If you're the former, you shouldn't vote. If you're the latter, you are like a unicorn

Or there's always the option that you fit into one of John Oliver's four categories of undecided voters from a few weeks ago (attention seekers, chronically insecure, racist Democrats, and, by far the largest, the stupid- which can be broken down into many smaller subsets)

SI

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Mustang

I'm voting in 3 hours and still don't know who I'm voting for.

Flip a coin...that's how I decided which girl was going to get my extra World Series ticket.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

BTW, I don't want to prematurely cut this thread short, but maybe we should start to migrate conversation over to the "Who Did you Vote For thread for results?

Oh, c'mon- this thread needs to reach 10000

SI

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Flip a coin...that's how I decided which girl was going to get my extra World Series ticket.

How'd that work out for you?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Ah, to be 27 again, be right all the time, and instigate pissing matches on a message board. Those were the days.

Did you turn 28 today?

SI

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

How'd that work out for you?

Excellent!

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

{scratches head}

Maybe I've missed something but I think I've seen a grand total of one prediction of McCain victory all day here.

Margin? I absolutely believe it'll be influenced by vote fraud.
Outcome? Haven't seen that asserted here.

Voter fraud? Really?!?!

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

As was pointed out earlier, the statistics cited in regard to this included partisan Obama voters, which is obviously not reflective of the overall effect. Many wouldn't have voted for McCain no matter what. We don't have a poll to compare what effect the other options would have had in comparison, so information in that regard is subjective at best.

Sigh.

"(ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Does (Obama’s/McCain’s) choice of (Biden/Palin)
for vice president make you more likely to vote for (Obama/McCain), less likely, or won’t it make any difference in your vote? "


Date, Likely/Registered/All, More/Less/Indifferent

Obama’s choice of Biden:

11/1/08 LV 28 14 58

9/29/08 LV 26 14 60

9/4/08 RV 22 11 66

McCain’s choice of Palin:
11/1/08 LV 17 46 37

9/29/08 LV 24 32 43

9/4/08 RV 25 19 55

Compare to:

Kerry’s choice of Edwards:
7/25/08 RV 24 9 66

Gore’s choice of Lieberman:
8/7/00 All 15 10 73

Bush’s choice of Cheney:
7/29/00 RV 14 6 78

Dole’s choice of Kemp:
8/15/96 RV 18 6 75

For recent VP picks other than this year, people haven't historically cared, and the ones who have were roughly 2/1 in support of said VP pick. Palin is roughly 3/1 against. I know this is one poll, but there's no logical way you can conclude Palin is the reason the race is as "close" as it is.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Is it that you feel that you don't know enough about either candidate or that they both appeal (or don't appeal) to you at about the same level? If you're the former, you shouldn't vote. If you're the latter, you are like a unicorn

The latter. Both have ideas I like and some ideas I can't see past. I have no desire to state what they are here because they are my opinions and they are too deep rooted for someone to even dent them in short time span.

As for the 4 categories, they are all pretty unflattering. I'm not a racist democraft, I'm not looking for attention (I'd do an Ireport on CNN if that was the case), stupid? I should hope not.. As for insecure, not 100% sure what is meant by that unless they mean that you aren't sure if your stance on an issue is right. (That is.. I'm for abortion, but like McCain otherwise so, maybe I'm wrong and should vote for him anyways...)

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Crim

Wow, miked. You sure told him.

Oh by the way, I've exceeded the speed limit in my car at least 1000 times for every ticket I've gotten. Just sayin.

that's comparing apples to oranges - try this on instead:

for everytime you have run a red light at an intersection that has traffic cameras, how many warnings/tickets have you gotten later in the mail? I bet the ratio is a lot closer to 1:1

[Neon_Chaos]

It's clearly obvious that the Republicans needed to pull in swing voters to have a chance to win. Palin probably lost this election for the Republicans by losing the undecided vote more than she provided the base a reason to vote for McCain.

[larrymcg421]

I posted a while back on how the ACORN story was being misreported, because they were focusing on the names being submitted (Mickey Mouse, Tony Romo) which is irrelevant to the issue because they are required by law to turn ALL forms in. The only thing they can do is flag the false forms. Once the the media started to grasp that aspect, the stories died down significantly, because they realized that most of them had been flagged.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mustang

The latter. Both have ideas I like and some ideas I can't see past. I have no desire to state what they are here because they are my opinions and they are too deep rooted for someone to even dent them in short time span.

As for the 4 categories, they are all pretty unflattering. I'm not a racist democraft, I'm not looking for attention (I'd do an Ireport on CNN if that was the case), stupid? I should hope not.. As for insecure, not 100% sure what is meant by that unless they mean that you aren't sure if your stance on an issue is right. (That is.. I'm for abortion, but like McCain otherwise so, maybe I'm wrong and should vote for him anyways...)

Well, yes the four categories are from the Daily Show. It was meant to be funny, not accurate.

But, yeah, if you line up almost identically on both sides of things, you are a weird breed and good luck with your decision.

SI

[DaddyTorgo]

*warning - blanket generalization below*

seems to me that Democrats have complained in the past about voter disenfranchisement, and now Republicans will complain about vote fraud.

*end blanket generalization*

of the two, there is certainly more evidence that disenfranchisement occurs than VOTE fraud.

Voter REGISTRATION "fraud" if you will, exists, but it's largely for reasons already discussed: volunteers paid by the registration, the requirement to turn in all forms, etc. The fact is though, that nobody named "Micky Mouse" ever shows up to vote, or indeed even makes it onto the voting rolls. In that sense, it's not fraud. It's the system working as it was designed to, to weed out these "bogus" applications.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Well, yes the four categories are from the Daily Show. It was meant to be funny, not accurate.

But, yeah, if you line up almost identically on both sides of things, you are a weird breed and good luck with your decision.

SI

*L*

Don't watch the Daily Show very much so, you got me there.

No wonder that list looked so freakin' weird. It was like some said "Ok, you are either stupid, an asshole, egotistical or weak.. pick one!"

[Arles]

In the "irony of the day" contest, we have a first entry:

A report just came that said the reason that Obama was waiting so long outside the polls before he voted, it seems that William Ayers was currently voting in that polling spot and Obama didn't want to give anyone the chance to get a picture of them both together.

[Crim]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

McCain’s choice of Palin:
11/1/08 LV 17 46 37

9/29/08 LV 24 32 43

9/4/08 RV 25 19 55

I had not seen this, and am surprised by it.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Did you turn 28 today?

SI

I wish. It was a few years ago.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miked

Fraud is a problem with voter registration, not with actual voter fraud.

Maybe the legal definition differs, but it seems pretty point A to point B that a vote cast by someone after fraudulent registration would be ... umm ... fraud.

[Arles]

Let me just say this would be an unmitigated disaster for our country if it happened. I would rather have McCain lose than this happen. I just can't see Obama supporters accepting this if it happened:

WASHINGTON – It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote.

But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.

If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain's way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.

In 2000, Democrat Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But George W. Bush won the state-by-state electoral balloting that determines the presidency, 271 to 266. The outcome wasn't clear until a 36-day recount awarded Florida, then worth 25 electoral votes, to Bush by just a 537-vote margin.

Before the 2000 election, political insiders had speculated just the opposite, that perhaps Bush would win the popular vote but lose the presidency to Gore.

One day before the 2008 election, Obama sat atop every national poll.

Enthusiastic by all measures, the Illinois senator's Democratic base was expected to run up the score in liberal bastions of party strongholds such as New York and California.

But the race appeared to be naturally tightening in top battlegrounds that each candidate likely will need to help them reach the magic number in the Electoral College, electoral-rich Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia among them.

To win, McCain must hold on to most states that went to Bush in 2004, or pick up one or more that went to Democrat John Kerry four years ago to make up for any losses. McCain's biggest target for a pickup is Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and where several public polls show Obama's lead shrinking from double digits to single digits.

McCain faces a steep hurdle. Obama leads or is tied in a dozen or so Bush-won states, and has the advantage in most Kerry-won states.

The Republican's campaign argues that as national surveys tighten, McCain's standing in key states also rises and that, combined with get-out-the-vote efforts, will lift McCain to victory in Bush states and, perhaps, others.

"What we're in for is a slam-bang finish. ... He's been counted out before and won these kinds of states, and we're in the process of winning them right now," Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said Sunday.

Obama's team is awash in confidence.

"We think we have a decisive edge right now" in states Bush won four years ago, said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.

There's still another possibility, perhaps more improbable than the first — that McCain wins the popular vote while Obama clinches the White House.

True, Democrats have been fired up all year.

True, Republicans haven't been.

True, Obama and McCain have been faring about even among independent voters.

But there are signs that the GOP's conservative base has rallied in the final stretch and these voters usually turn out in droves, even if lukewarm on the candidate.

Then there's the question of a tie in the Electoral College. In that case, members of the next House would select the winner.

If Obama carries every state that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, then he and McCain each would have 269 electoral votes. A tie also would result if McCain takes New Hampshire from the Democrats' column but loses Iowa, New Mexico and another state that Bush won, Colorado.

In an election year that's defied conventional wisdom time and again, anything can happen.

Can Obama win popular vote but lose election? - Yahoo! News

[Lathum]

so apparently in Philly 2 members of the Black panther party, one with a night stick are blocking the door intimidating voters claiming republican voters shouldnt bother voting because a black man is going to win.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'll say this for the 4085th time in these threads over the past two years (JPhillips has said it a lot) but

judgment + character > experience

especially given that the relevant "experience" for President has proven difficult to define.

I agree with your experience sentence. The problem with your equation is that judgment is based upon experience. When you were 18, did you have the same judgment you had at 36? Or did your judgment change based upon your life experiences?

I think, however, that there are diminishing returns on experience and judgment.

I'm just pointing out that your equation is somewhat circular.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so apparently in Philly 2 members of the Black panther party, one with a night stick are blocking the door intimidating voters claiming republican voters shouldnt bother voting because a black man is going to win.

If true, throw em in jail, throw away the key, but I'm not going to trust internet rumor.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Maybe the legal definition differs, but it seems pretty point A to point B that a vote cast by someone after fraudulent registration would be ... umm ... fraud.

can you point to a documented instance of that happening? let alone say...100 documented instances of that happening? or 1000? The simple fact is that you can't (okay maybe one, but what did someone post earlier...52 arrests in the last election?) IT DOES NOT HAPPEN. FRAUDULENT REGISTRATIONS /= VOTES

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so apparently in Philly 2 members of the Black panther party, one with a night stick are blocking the door intimidating voters claiming republican voters shouldnt bother voting because a black man is going to win.

well if true they ought to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and locked up for years

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Arles

Let me just say this would be an unmitigated disaster for our country if it happened. I would rather have McCain lose than this happen. I just can't see Obama supporters accepting this if it happened:

Has a snowball's chance (if that) but it'd be a hoot, the whole agony of defeat thing would be priceless.

The more appropriate scenario would be the EC tie, which would be pretty indicative of how divided a mess we really are.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

McCain’s choice of Palin:
11/1/08 LV 17 46 37

9/29/08 LV 24 32 43

9/4/08 RV 25 19 55

(using rcp)
9/4: McCain up 51-45 in most polls
9/29: McCain down 43-48 in most polls
11/1: McCain down 41-50 in most polls

so, when McCain was up 51-45, Palin had 25% more/19% less. When McCain was down 43-48, Palin had 25% more/32% less. When McCain dipped to 41-50, Palin had 17% more/46% less.

it seems that the economic issues and the state of the country brought down McCain's support, which (not surprisingly) decreased the amount of support for Palin.