2012-13 NBA Regular Season Thread, Feel the Heat

[Chief Rum]

Jrue Holiday-- All he needs is to keep those turnovers down a little more to be on the level with Rose, Paul, Williams, etc.

[Chief Rum]

Oh great, I got to the next page. My work is done here then. I'll just post one more.

Kenneth Faried-- Athleticism, talented team with a star point guard, soon to be a playoff stalwart and the hair--he has star written all over him.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Jrue Holiday-- All he needs is to keep those turnovers down a little more to be on the level with Rose, Paul, Williams, etc.

Deron Williams is your3rd example? I wouldn't put him close to the Paul/pre-injury Rose level. imo, he's a borderline top 10 at PG when you factor in his defense - and I'd rather have Jrue right now.

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Both good signings IMO. If there was ever a good situation for Terrence Williams it's likely the Celtics under Doc Rivers. DJ White has looked OK in spurts and, at the absolute worst, is going to give you more than Fab Melo...

Agreed on both... C's now signed Williams for this season and next. If he got his head on straight over in China, he's definitely an NBA role player at worst. Nice to find a 23 year old lottery pick when you desperately need depth. DJ White is basically Brandon Bass... not sure how nice it is to find a player equal to someone you're paying $7m/y for free, but that's why you never pay mediocre players like Bass $7m/y. Plus we got Shavlik Randolph, so, umm, white guy for the crowd to chant for during home blowouts.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Deron Williams is your3rd example? I wouldn't put him close to the Paul/pre-injury Rose level. imo, he's a borderline top 10 at PG when you factor in his defense - and I'd rather have Jrue right now.

Calm down, sunshine. I was just writing a quick blurb and trying to get to the next page, not make a federal case about it. I just named three of the more widely considered top PGs off the top of my head. I wasn't sitting there making a list of the best before I typed it out.

FWIW, I agree with you, although I am of the opinion that DWill is capable of quite a bit more than he's showing right now, but he's playing below his capabilities right now for some reason. I would probably take Jrue right now over this version as well, and Parker, Westbrook and Irving, at least ahead of both. And I would consider Rondo and Wall too, although they may have too many inherent flaws for me to take them over even this version of Williams.

[mckerney]

Just checked and saw the Wolves managed to only lose by 15 last night and Rubio even managed to hit 30% of his shots from the field. Always good to see they're improving.

[stevew]

It's hard not to root against the collection of asshats that the clippers have assembled.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh great, I got to the next page. My work is done here then. I'll just post one more.

Kenneth Faried-- Athleticism, talented team with a star point guard, soon to be a playoff stalwart and the hair--he has star written all over him.

Faried is such an interesting case study on the NBA draft. His college numbers almost guaranteed him to be a 6 pt 10 reb guy. He's outplaying the pt number, but even if he didn't he should have had more value in the draft.

[Groundhog]

What worries me about Faried is he has too many invisible nights. He's definitely an energy guy and fun to watch, but if he doesn't have it going early in the game he struggles to make an impact.

[whomario]

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...0the%20NBA.pdf
really interesting read

if anybody wants to get their (stat/analytics)geek on even more : http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?page_id=462

[Groundhog]

Speights 10/10 for 21 points at the half vs the Knicks. Again, he may do very little else and look for his own shot nearly every time he touches it, but damn he can be a monster.

[Groundhog]

dola

Also rather noteworthy - Walton with 9 assists at the half.

[korme]

Brandon Jennings with a huge three to tie it up 8 seconds left, then Gordon Hayward dribble drives past Monta Ellis, only to be stifled by some great D by Larry Sanders to force OT.

Bucks eventually win in OT... they're a pretty fun team to watch.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by whomario

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...0the%20NBA.pdf
really interesting read

if anybody wants to get their (stat/analytics)geek on even more : http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?page_id=462

lol, Bargnani.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Sigh, David Lee.

Edit: Steph Curry is working on a triple double. Sadly turnovers is one of the three stats.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

lol, Bargnani.

Yeah, that's an interesting case of the numbers being much different then the eyes would tell you...

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Yeah, that's an interesting case of the numbers being much different then the eyes would tell you...

Yes and no... Bargnani does rate surprisingly high in opponent FG% when he's around a shooter, but he gets to the spot infrequently. That seems to jibe with his laziness off-ball and missed rotations.

[korme]

Really nice article from Zach Lowe today (this might interest nobody, or at least Groundhog/stevew/whomario/MikeVic/mckerney for team-specific related reasons)

Mining the Dregs of the NBA

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by korme

Really nice article from Zach Lowe today (this might interest nobody, or at least Groundhog/stevew/whomario/MikeVic/mckerney for team-specific related reasons)

Mining the Dregs of the NBA

I was floored with the Amir Johnson contract when it was first signed, but I've grown to actually like him. Maybe still too much money for a guy like that, but he has flashes of being a good, gritty rebounder that still gets you some points. Works hard, which I have liked in the past with guys like Antonio Davis and JYD.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by korme

Really nice article from Zach Lowe today (this might interest nobody, or at least Groundhog/stevew/whomario/MikeVic/mckerney for team-specific related reasons)

Mining the Dregs of the NBA

Good read. Thanks for sharing.

[Groundhog]

Yeah, interesting article and very true re: the Cavs.

Only point I took issue with was the mentioning of Aaron Brooks "somehow" replacing Isaiah Thomas early in the season. Thanks to drafting DeMarcus Cousins with my 1st round pick in our fantasy league - a mistake I will never make again - I watched an unfortunate amount of Kings games early on. Thomas was terrible for the Kings. I don't know what happened over the offseason, but for at least the first 4 weeks of the year he just flatout sucked.

[BishopMVP]

Great win tonight for the Celtics at Indiana. Overcame terrible officiating, and finally used Pierce as a decoy on the last shot instead of his terrible iso'ing. Now only a game and a half out of 4th place. ATL and OKC up before the schedule gets easier.

[Neon_Chaos]

Bryant, Lakers roar back against Hornets, 108-102 - Yahoo! Sports

Lakers come back from a 25-point deficit (down by 21 at the end of the third quarter) to beat the Hornets in the 2nd night of a back to back.

They had a 20-0 run during the last 7 minutes of the game.

[Groundhog]

Wow re: Lakers game. I stopped watching sometime during the 3rd Q when the Lakers, who were down by a lot, had 3 great scoring plays in a row, with some great passes by Kobe. Still, didn't expect them to win that game.

[stevew]

Lakers win, Cavs beat the Jazz....good night for Cavs fans. Anything to help the Lakers into the playoffs.

[whomario]

Screw his shooting, Rubio is awesome. Plays with so much fire, he´s bound to be successfull sooner rather than later. The guy loves to win. Once he gets to play with some actual shooters and offensive weapons for a while (last night the wolves had to start Stiemsma and Gelabale ...) his shooting % will pick up, until then he´ll do everything else. An actual full offseason where he can actually work out will help as well.

He has an unbelievable energy defensively along with a knack for when to put his hand in, averages 4.5 steals in his last 10 games.

Marc Gasol with a big game, guy is so damn good at filling in wherever he´s needed. Also propably the best "stationary" big man passer in the league (Noah has the same numbers, but a lot of them have to do with his ability to draw help on the drive). If the Grizzlies were even above average at finishing/shooting he´d average way over 5 a game.
Since the all star break he has 5.4 a game in 8 games (with just 1.8 topg), with last nights 3 being the low assist game. Had 11 in a game.

Nowitzki since the All Star Break : 19/9/3, 49% shooting, 50% from 3. Still think he has a really good season left and if the Mavs had made the Playoffs i´d have bet my house on another 25/10 series.

[miami_fan]

Did you guys hear that Lebron hit a game winning shot?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Did you guys hear that Lebron hit a game winning shot?

I didn't see the final shot from LeBron as the game dragged out past my lunchbreak, but Magic got screwed on that charging call on Tobias Harris in the final minute. He floated in a lovely shot from the baseline and Battier, who moved into his position as Harris was already in the air, got there way late. Naturally, charging foul, no basket. Replay showed it clearly, commentators don't say a thing outside of 'lovely play by Battier'.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

great last play design by the knicks. a 25 foot post-up for jr smith.

[korme]

Makes me wonder how many players like Tobias Harris there are... last I checked his per 36 have been consistent with his time in Milwaukee, it's just a matter of minutes.

[Neon_Chaos]

Kobe Bryant, you are a bad bad man.

[nol]

Here's a shot of Toronto's bench after Kobe's third three of the fourth quarter: Twitter / LakersU9TED: When Kobe hit that 3rd three ...

[hoopsguy]

Brandon Knight's submission for Mensa membership was rejected after this footage was released:
DeAndre Jordan Monster-Alley Oop Over Brandon Knight (Mar 10 2013) - YouTube

[Groundhog]

[Neon_Chaos]

He rode that elevator all the way up, and all the way down.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't even give a shit about the NBA and thought that was spectacular.

And I love the current top comment on that clip

This dunk STILL would have only gotten a 89 dunk intensity in 2k13 smh

[bhlloy]

Somebody might want to change the thread title. Not sure anyone is looking forward to running into beast mode Kobe in the playoffs right now.

And that dunk was ridiculous, very brave and stupid from Knight

[Groundhog]

Lakers get no love from me. They might as well fire the coach and save some money at this point and just let Kobe do whatever he feels like, the team is still a disaster considering their talent. D'Antoni deserves a new 'Worst Coach of the Year' trophy to be carved out for him, and it could even be a joint award with Mike Brown.

I mean, yeah, Nash has clearly dropped off, but you are talking about a guy who's single best ability is his creativity with the ball, and you have him playing off the ball. So he is basically a defensive liability and spot up shooter at this point and not a whole heap else.

You have (or had) another guy in Gasol who is one of the best low post scorers in the league, and you have him shooting jump shots from above the foul line. Then you put him - one of the best post players in the world - on the bench because he doesn't fit your scheme.

Now they are playing well because Kobe is doing absolutely everything for them and playing at a level I imagine not many people realise he still had left in him. How long can he keep it up? This is Kobe just saying "fuck this, I'm going to throw these guys on my back and take over". Might as well get Smush Parker and Kwame Brown back to join him again.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Somebody might want to change the thread title. Not sure anyone is looking forward to running into beast mode Kobe in the playoffs right now.

And that dunk was ridiculous, very brave and stupid from Knight

Pretty sure Oklahoma would be fine with it

[murrayyyyy]

I think the Utah Jazz would like a "do over" at the trade deadline. 1-7 since and their next 6 games have it looking like the trend will continue:

Pistons, Thunder, Grizzlies, Knicks, Rockets, Spurs.

9 expiring contracts (10 if they terminate Marvin Williams early) and you do nothing... at least they get the Warrior first rounder so they can had two 15-20 first round players this year in this deep draft :-{

[Logan]

Love this article from Woj.

Backward culture makes punch line of Brandon Knight for trying to stop DeAndre Jordan's dunk - Yahoo! Sports

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Logan

Love this article from Woj.

Backward culture makes punch line of Brandon Knight for trying to stop DeAndre Jordan's dunk - Yahoo! Sports

Hmm, I like it, too, and kudos to Knight for attempting to stop DJ from dunking. He sounds like a great kid, and it's definitely unfair all the ridicule he is getting.

All that said, I am disappointed that Woj decided to include a paragraph ripping Jordan for being paid $43 M when he is so limited offensively. Is he overpaid? Definitely. But Woj was in fine form just criticizing the culture that is villifying Knight for trying to stop Jordan's dunk. He doesn't need to go after Jordan at all. Jordan was doing what is expected of him in that moment--dunking. What should he do, go down to the floor and go back up to do a layup? Should he not sign a ridiculous contract if it is put in front of him, thanks to the dictates of a market that overvalues centers and a franchise that was spending too much that offseason (the Warriors, Clippers matched)?

DJ's actually a pretty chill guy off the court, at least from what I have heard. And he didn't showboat over Knight after the dunk. He seemed more embarrassed by the attention from his fans and the crowd than anything. I don't think he deserves having his negative attributes put on display just because he did what he is supposed to do.

I really like Woj, but that article would have been ten times better without that paragraph on DJ.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by whomario

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...0the%20NBA.pdf
really interesting read

if anybody wants to get their (stat/analytics)geek on even more : http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?page_id=462

Any methodology suggesting Bargnani is the 2nd best post defender, no matter what data they are using, must clearly be flawed.

Good read overall, furthers the legendary status of SANDERS! (for those who read the Grantland NBA stuff) and I guess I'm a little surprised Hibbert rates so high. And surprised to see Noah and Asik score lower than expected.

[mckerney]

It's got Kevin Love in the bottom 5 so it looks like it checks out to me.

[nol]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Any methodology suggesting Bargnani is the 2nd best post defender, no matter what data they are using, must clearly be flawed.

Good read overall, furthers the legendary status of SANDERS! (for those who read the Grantland NBA stuff) and I guess I'm a little surprised Hibbert rates so high. And surprised to see Noah and Asik score lower than expected.

Those two things are probably linked to the same reason. Bargnani might do a decent job challenging shots, but his help defense and rotations are so bad that he isn't within five feet on a lot of interior shot attempts. I could also hypothesize that opponents are so surprised to see Bargnani actually in position to challenge their shot that it throws them off

The reverse is true for guys like Noah and Asik. The fact that they are active enough to contest so many shots within the restricted area is extremely valuable considering that their presence causes at least some decrease in field goal percentage.

I thought what the paper had on Ibaka was very interesting. They showed that while stats like these are an important first step towards quantifying defense, there are still confounding factors. His detractors could look at the numbers and say that he's an overrated defender because he doesn't seem to deter opponents from trying to score in the paint and his block numbers are inflated due to facing a higher percentage of shots at the rim. However, at least some of that is due to the fact that OKC consciously tries to funnel penetration to Ibaka. He might end having more point-blank looks converted against him as a result, but it also means the Thunder can get away with playing lineups with lesser perimeter defenders and leak out on fast breaks more often.

[heybrad]

Has the Hack-A-Whoever strategy ever worked? Dwight Howard shot 39 free throws tonight making 25. All you have to do is make half of them. Just seems like the stupidest strategy.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

Those two things are probably linked to the same reason. Bargnani might do a decent job challenging shots, but his help defense and rotations are so bad that he isn't within five feet on a lot of interior shot attempts. I could also hypothesize that opponents are so surprised to see Bargnani actually in position to challenge their shot that it throws them off

Yeah, it's almost like people don't read anything Goldsberry writes and just look at the charts/pictures. He's not only acknowledged that this is merely a first step, but also provided that rationale for why Bargnani shows up there. (The legitimate criticism is that the study didn't take into account fouls and the points scored off free throws.)

Amusing records for the Celtics post-Rondo.
2-4 on the road vs. the West
0-2 vs. Charlotte
12-0 vs. everyone else

I know the first one was a B2B where we traveled to Charlotte after that 3ot game vs. Denver and tonight Pierce sat, but that's embarrassing. (Bobcats are 3-17 in that stretch, with the only other win over Orlando.)

[stevew]

Originally Posted by heybrad

Has the Hack-A-Whoever strategy ever worked? Dwight Howard shot 39 free throws tonight making 25. All you have to do is make half of them. Just seems like the stupidest strategy.

It's really not a given that Dwight will make that many free throws. The lakers are averaging 104points/100 possessions. If Dwight shoots his average 47%, the Lakers would only be scoring at a rate of 95.6/100 possessions, which would be worst in the league. Hitting 50% of your free throws puts you at 24th in overall offensive efficiency. Plus the Magic probably wanted to give their fans ample opportunities to boo his ass, which is always a good idea since Orlando literally has nothing to play for.

[nol]

Yeah, it's dumb. I don't know off the top of my head where the Lakers rank in terms of points per possession, but you're letting them score at least a point per possession (which is right around league average) without expending any effort and allowing them to set up their defense at the other end. I can't find any stats for this year, but last year the Heat led the league in half-court offensive efficiency at about 95 points/100 possessions, and the Thunder came in second at a shade under 92 points/100 possessions. If you manage to win a game when your defensive "strategy" is to put a 50 percent foul shooter on the line all night, it would only mean that you were able to score so easily on the other team that they would have lost no matter what you did defensively.

There's another Sloan paper tangentially related to why the "Hack-a-_____" strategy is only viable when a team is trying to come back from a late deficit. Lots of math in this one, but it's basically showing that each team's optimal allocation of 3-pointers (high variance) and 2-pointers (low variance) doesn't change very much until late in the fourth quarter. There are more comebacks in the NBA than one might expect because teams with a lead become more risk-averse by not shooting as many threes as they should, especially when their lead is declining. The benefit of putting someone on the line is not to shut the other team's offense down, but to further reduce the leading team's offensive variance while maximizing the trailing team's (via more opportunities to put up threes). http://www.sloansportsconference.com...0the%20NBA.pdf

EDIT @stevew - you have to account for the fact that fouling turns it into a half-court game where 1) teams score less efficiently than they do overall (95.6/100 possessions would have been the best in the league last year) and 2) getting out and scoring in transition is presumably one of the few advantages the young Magic would have on the Lakers.
But when I heard the Magic were fouling Howard, I immediately thought of the booing angle as well. So from a strategic perspective, not good, but from a tanking and letting your fans have some fun perspective, why not?

[MrBug708]

Screw you Dantay Jones

[stevew]

So I was bored and looking at Kobe's stats and wondering how close he was to Kareem's record. Basically he needs to play 4 more injury free seasons and average 22ppg in order to break it. It's amazing how far out that record truly is.