Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[ISiddiqui]

LOL! Going out in South Harlem and attributing McCain's policies to Obama and the people on the street who are voting for Obama don't even notice:

YouTube - Harlem voters

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

In related news, I'll likely hold my breath until I die, which would please the partisan masses to no end.

Unfortunately, you'll probably pass out before death occurs, and then resume breathing comfortably.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Or if that's truly what we believe, we ought to go in there and clear shit out along with Israel, take the whole fucking region over.

Eventually ... assuming we were to ever regain something resembling the willpower to do so on a national level. Alas, I won't hold my breath for that.

[Kodos]

Imperialism FTW!

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Exactly my point. They got tossed on their ass in favor of the Democrats. People gave the Bush adminstration and the Republican Congress a term to get their stuff in gear. After it became obvious that they weren't doing anything, the tide quickly shifted and resulted in a passing of power in 2006. Obama and the Democrats would get a similar 3-4 year window from the public to make their mark. If they look like the Republican Congress did in 2005, they'll get the same boot.

That is some interesting math. 2006 - 2000 = 3 or 4

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Unfortunately, you'll probably pass out before death occurs, and then resume breathing comfortably.

And eventually wake up to find another stimulus bill has passed. What a nightmare!

I'll use a plastic bag to ensure success.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

That is some interesting math. 2006 - 2000 = 3 or 4

Fuzzy math, baby! Embrace it!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

That is some interesting math. 2006 - 2000 = 3 or 4

The trend back towards the democrats began after 3-4 years. They just didn't get enough seats to push them over the top until the 2006 election. I don't think that comes as a surprise to anyone who was paying attention in 2004. The Republicans were already losing face at that point with their baseless claims that the Democrats were responsible for them not getting stuff done.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

And eventually wake up to find another stimulus bill has passed. What a nightmare!

I'll use a plastic bag to ensure success.

I'd imagine that you'd be happier offing yourself by blowing up an Xbox 360 manufacturing facility on your way out. It's the romantic in me.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Fuzzy math, baby! Embrace it!

Anyone claiming their candidate in this election can provide everything they claim they can provide while balancing the budget is practicing fuzzy math.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'd imagine that you'd be happier offing yourself by blowing up an Xbox 360 manufacturing facility on your way out. It's the romantic in me.

Why waste my life blowing something up that will be a spectacular paperweight after 6-12 months of use?

I'll be here all week. Try the veal special.....it's fabulous.

[Kodos]

Mine is doing fine after several years of use.

[cartman]

WHAT??? YOU DON'T GET THE COMEDIC GENIUS THAT WE HAVE OBVIOUSLY SO BEEN BLESSED WITH??? WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU???

Mine is still working fine as well.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Mine is doing fine after several years of use.

(flashes karma camera to Kodos's Xbox 360)

And for the record, I'll hear no complaints about me bringing this topic into the thread. Blame Kodos.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

WHAT??? YOU DON'T GET THE COMEDIC GENIUS THAT WE HAVE OBVIOUSLY SO BEEN BLESSED WITH??? WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU???

Mine is still working fine as well.

(karma camera #2 begins operation)

[Kodos]

(looks like someone has already used the karma camera on Sony this generation)

[Kodos]

(and the McCain campaign)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Kodos

(and the McCain campaign)

At least we're back on topic now.

[Kodos]

Thank goodness. For a while there, I thought we'd have to get our own thread.

[Butter]

2008 Early Voting

Website reporting early voting statistics through now. Democrats pulling way higher early vote numbers in the West compared to their registration %'s vs. the GOP.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The trend back towards the democrats began after 3-4 years. They just didn't get enough seats to push them over the top until the 2006 election. I don't think that comes as a surprise to anyone who was paying attention in 2004. The Republicans were already losing face at that point with their baseless claims that the Democrats were responsible for them not getting stuff done.

2004 election results

President- Republican
Senate- +4 Republican
House- +3 Republican

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

2004 election results

President- Republican
Senate- +4 Republican
House- +3 Republican

That's fine, but has little basis in reality. Many of the races fall the way they do based on local issues. The Republicans gained a seat here or there, but there was no question that the public was turning against the Republicans at that point in time. The fact that a candidate as weak as Kerry had a shot at winning portrayed that more than anything else could.

[JPhillips]

That's fine, but has little basis in reality.

That you could say that about the actual election results is priceless.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Take this with a grain of salt as this is anonymous in nature. A Clinton campaign worker is painting a much different picture of the election possibilities in regards to who will win the key states and the polling information being presented. She sounds jilted, but we'll see how it pans out........

RedState: What you were never intended to know in this election

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That you could say that about the actual election results is priceless.

So you believe that public support was behind the Republicans in 2004? I couldn't disagree more and I'm surprised that a liberal partisan would make that claim. There are other factors in voting turnout outside of the actual races. Moral and economic issues at the state level can be just as much of a deciding factor. There were several moral issues on the ballot that assisted the Republicans in the 2004 election. Bush was already being bashed repeatedly for his decisions and the Republican Congress wasn't doing much better.

Similarly, I think that the Democrats were the benefactors of a perfect storm in 2006. The popularity of the Republicans was low, but there were several races that fell their way thanks to localized issues in addition to the dissatisfaction with Republican leadership. It goes both ways.

[cartman]

You mean that wasn't another one of your "jokes"?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Take this with a grain of salt, but some guy I just ran into told me John McCain eats babies.

Cannibal party supporter?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

You mean that wasn't another one of your "jokes"?

I think JPhillips was dead serious.

[cartman]

This analysis seems to completely debunk any point you were trying to make:

The Election of 2004

a portion of the article:

The 402 incumbents suffered a remarkably low 9 defeats, 2 in partisan state primaries and 7 on the November 2 general election. There will be 393 House veterans next to 42 freshmen. The 97.8 percent success rate of incumbents testifies that status quo politics prevails in the House.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Take this with a grain of salt, but some guy I just ran into told me John McCain eats babies.

Was it Mike Tyson?

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

2008 Early Voting

Website reporting early voting statistics through now. Democrats pulling way higher early vote numbers in the West compared to their registration %'s vs. the GOP.

Colorado and New Mexico look like they're definitely going Obama's way based on polls of early voters. In both states more than half as many people that voted in 2004 have voted early. With either Iowa or Virginia (where he has big leads in polls) and the states Kerry won that puts Obama over 270 electoral votes.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Take this with a grain of salt as this is anonymous in nature. A Clinton campaign worker is painting a much different picture of the election possibilities in regards to who will win the key states and the polling information being presented. She sounds jilted, but we'll see how it pans out........

RedState: What you were never intended to know in this election

That article reads like a bunch of talking points were handed out by the McCain campaign.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

This analysis seems to completely debunk any point you were trying to make:

The Election of 2004

And once again, you totally missed the point I made. If the moral issues that were on the 2004 ballots in several states that drove Republican turnout were not in place, that status quo would not have held. The Republican Party drove turnout by putting issues on the ballots in key states that would help their candidates' chances. The Democrats would have pulled seats in that election had the Republicans not done that.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

2008 Early Voting

Website reporting early voting statistics through now. Democrats pulling way higher early vote numbers in the West compared to their registration %'s vs. the GOP.

1. Dekalb: 158,925
2. Fulton: 142,193

That says all you need to know about who early voting may be favoring in GA. These counties are dems (McKinney anyone).

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

That article reads like a bunch of talking points were handed out by the McCain campaign.

Honestly, I thought it was even more strongly worded than that. This person will look like a genius or a goat on November 5th.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by miked

1. Dekalb: 158,925
2. Fulton: 142,193

That says all you need to know about who early voting may be favoring in GA. These counties are dems (McKinney anyone).

Using early voter numbers to predict overall turnout in this election could be a pretty iffy move. I think that the deeply partisan Obama supporters are extremely motivated in this election to the point where they want to vote NOW. I don't think McCain voters are nearly as motivated to vote, but they'll still come out and cast their ballot on election day. It's just not a good idea to make conclusions based on a sample that is likely not a cross-section of the overall electorate that will eventually turn out.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

And once again, you totally missed the point I made. If the moral issues that were on the 2004 ballots in several states that drove Republican turnout were not in place, that status quo would not have held. The Republican Party drove turnout by putting issues on the ballots in key states that would help their candidates' chances. The Democrats would have pulled seats in that election had the Republicans not done that.

and this portion of the article debunks that assertion:

State legislative elections did not show any Republican trend either. To the contrary, Republicans lost a net of 76 seats, going from a 64-seat edge nationally down to a 12-seat deficit among 7382 total seats (National Conference of State Legislatures, Press Release Democrats Appear to Make Gains in America's State Legislatures; Top 10 Legislative Election Sites Named; Election Results and Analysis). Numerous chambers changed from one party to the other with small shifts in seat control, attesting that the two parties are basically at par in seats and public allegiance (NCSL's StateVote 2004 and NCSLnet StateVote 2004 Party Control). That's easy to miss for Missourians, who witnessed consolidation of Republican control as they took the governor's chair plus 120 of the 197 seats in the Missouri General Assembly. This was a gain of 10 seats over the 2002 result (NCSLnet Search Results Partisan Composition of State Legislatures - Missouri).

If there were local issues that drove Republican turnout, then how did Democrats pick up seats at the local level?

It seems that there was little to no backlash in the 2004 Federal elections agains the Republicans, but at the local level it seems that there was a change towards the Democrats. So this pretty much refutes both the points you were trying to make. Unless you were trying to say that people were sending a message by re-electing their Republican congressmen, and giving them a warning by electing Democrats at the local level. That is a very tenuous link to make, and goes against your original assertions.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Using early voter numbers to predict overall turnout in this election could be a pretty iffy move. I think that the deeply partisan Obama supporters are extremely motivated in this election to the point where they want to vote NOW. I don't think McCain voters are nearly as motivated to vote, but they'll still come out and cast their ballot on election day. It's just not a good idea to make conclusions based on a sample that is likely not a cross-section of the overall electorate that will eventually turn out.

I made no overall conclusions except what the data show. My statement was this could indicative of who early voting is favoring, not necessarily that it will predict election day.

This is a state that voted for a governor because of a flag, that voted for a do-nothing scumbag like Saxby, and thinks the solution to a drought is to hold a prayer on the capital steps for rain. I think an Obama victory here is highly unlikely.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by miked

I made no overall conclusions except what the data show. My statement was this could indicative of who early voting is favoring, not necessarily that it will predict election day.

This is a state that voted for a governor because of a flag, that voted for a do-nothing scumbag like Saxby, and thinks the solution to a drought is to hold a prayer on the capital steps for rain. I think an Obama victory here is highly unlikely.

But the fact that Georgia is even remotely in play right now speaks volumes about how well this election is looking for Obama.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by rowech

I love when people don't like Obama that it must be because we're racist. Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that he's going to destroy any incentive to make something of yourself in this country because those who do very well will be penalized and those who don't will be helped along.

Fear-mongering FTW!

By the way, I think you're right. I would really hate to be a multi-millionaire right now and have to pay higher taxes. I think I'll go work at McDonald's instead.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Hey, it's America. If your political opponent accuses you of being a child molester, you defend yourself and say it isn't true. If they stoop even lower and suggest you might be an atheist, you have to fight back, plain and simple.

I think this post needs more love.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by KWhit

But the fact that Georgia is even remotely in play right now speaks volumes about how well this election is looking for Obama if you assume that the polling data is accurate.

Fixed.

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Fixed.

Yeah, these polls are undersampling black voters so you can't put too much weight into them.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

But the fact that Georgia is even remotely in play right now speaks volumes about how well this election is looking for Obama if you assume that the polling data is accurate.

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Fixed.

Dude.

In 2004, Bush took Georgia 58% to Kerry's 41%.

Today, the polling average says McCain 51%, Obama 47%. That's a big-ass difference. Georgia shouldn't even be a question for McCain, but by all accounts it's pretty tight.

(I know, I know)... All the polls have fucked up party distribution numbers. We've heard you say that once or a thousand times before.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by KWhit

(I know, I know)... All the polls have fucked up party distribution numbers. We've heard you say that once or a thousand times before.

Don't forget that he also said THE ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS have no basis in reality.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by cartman

Don't forget that he also said THE ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS have no basis in reality.

Well they didn't in 2000.

[flere-imsaho]

Today's State Polls:

State           Obama  McCain  Start   End     Pollster  

Arizona         44%    48%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Mason-Dixon  
California      55%    33%     Oct 18  Oct 28  Field Poll  
Colorado        48%    44%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Colorado        51%    45%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Marist Coll.  
Florida         45%    44%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Iowa            53%    39%     Oct 27  Oct 29  Research 2000  
Iowa            55%    40%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  
Indiana         46%    49%     Oct 28  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
Kentucky        43%    55%     Oct 29  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
Louisiana       40%    43%     Oct 24  Oct 26  Loyola U.  
Michigan        50%    38%     Oct 26  Oct 28  EPIC-MRA  
Minnesota       48%    40%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Mason-Dixon  
Montana         46%    50%     Oct 29  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
North Carolina  47%    43%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
North Carolina  50%    48%     Oct 29  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
New Hampshire   53%    40%     Oct 27  Oct 29  Suffolk U.  
New Jersey      53%    35%     Oct 23  Oct 29  Fairleigh Dickinson U.  
Ohio            48%    41%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Oklahoma        34%    63%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  
Pennsylvania    47%    43%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Mason-Dixon  
South Carolina  42%    53%     Oct 25  Oct 28  Princeton Survey  
South Carolina  44%    52%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  
Texas           40%    51%     Oct 15  Oct 22  U. of Texas  
Virginia        48%    44%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Virginia        51%    47%     Oct 26  Oct 27  Marist Coll.  
Wisconsin       55%    39%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  

Here's my summation from a few days ago, interspersed with the changes:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Arizona is actually probably not in play. Hope McCain didn't spend too much on those robocalls there.

I still don't think Arizona is really in play. Neither do I think Louisiana is in play.

Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are probably lost for McCain.

I think this conclusion still holds, despite tightening in CO & PA. Of course, if McCain's internal polling was showing a tightening in PA a few days ago, it would greatly explain why he's targeting it, especially when you consider...

Of those, Colorado & New Mexico were Bush states in 2004. Since CO has 9 EVs and NM has 5, that's a swing of 28 EVs, putting McCain at 272 and Obama at 265 (Bush won with 286 and Kerry lost with 251), assuming nothing else changes from 2004.

However, Iowa went for Bush in 2004 and is now Safe Obama, and has 7 EVs. That takes us to McCain at 265 and Obama at 272. Since 269 is needed to win, if we assume CO & NM stay Likely Obama, it's over.

Still the case. McCain clearly needs to flip a Kerry state, and I'd say it now looks like PA is the obvious candidate, based on this one poll.

The battleground states are currently Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.

No change here. McCain's looking better in Indiana, but Obama's looking better in North Carolina & Ohio. As an aside, based on the local news (I'm in Chicago), I expect a clusterfuck of epic proportions regarding the voting in NW Indiana.

All of these states went for Bush in 2004. If we forget about CO & NM for a moment and take Obama with Kerry States (251) + Iowa (7), we have 258, so he needs another 11 EVs. Nevada doesn't do it, because there are only 5 there, but the next lowest are IN & MO at 11 EVs.

Bottom-line: If Obama holds all of the Kerry States and Iowa (almost certain at this point) and flips any one of Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia or (Colorado + (Nevada or New Mexico)), he wins. While there are other states that are tossups (Montana and North Dakota, for instance), I think it's safe to assume that if they go Obama, he'll already have won one of these 6 battlegrounds.

We are still the same here. The latest NC & OH numbers have to worry McCain a lot, but the big X-factor here would be if he flips PA.

[larrymcg421]

I don't think Obama will win Arizona, but he should visit there. It would be great press for him and bad press for McCain.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Today's State Polls:

State           Obama  McCain  Start   End     Pollster  
 
Arizona         44%    48%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Mason-Dixon  
California      55%    33%     Oct 18  Oct 28  Field Poll  
Colorado        48%    44%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Colorado        51%    45%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Marist Coll.  
Florida         45%    44%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Iowa            53%    39%     Oct 27  Oct 29  Research 2000  
Iowa            55%    40%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  
Indiana         46%    49%     Oct 28  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
Kentucky        43%    55%     Oct 29  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
Louisiana       40%    43%     Oct 24  Oct 26  Loyola U.  
Michigan        50%    38%     Oct 26  Oct 28  EPIC-MRA  
Minnesota       48%    40%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Mason-Dixon  
Montana         46%    50%     Oct 29  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
North Carolina  47%    43%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
North Carolina  50%    48%     Oct 29  Oct 29  Rasmussen  
New Hampshire   53%    40%     Oct 27  Oct 29  Suffolk U.  
New Jersey      53%    35%     Oct 23  Oct 29  Fairleigh Dickinson U.  
Ohio            48%    41%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Oklahoma        34%    63%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  
Pennsylvania    47%    43%     Oct 27  Oct 28  Mason-Dixon  
South Carolina  42%    53%     Oct 25  Oct 28  Princeton Survey  
South Carolina  44%    52%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  
Texas           40%    51%     Oct 15  Oct 22  U. of Texas  
Virginia        48%    44%     Oct 23  Oct 27  Financial Dynamics  
Virginia        51%    47%     Oct 26  Oct 27  Marist Coll.  
Wisconsin       55%    39%     Oct 28  Oct 29  SurveyUSA  

I declare the weightings are off on the results that are good for McCain and the weightings are accurate on the results that are good for Obama.

[flere-imsaho]

Additional "State of the Race" reflections from fivethirtyeight.com, which I think (IMHO) agree with my conclusions:

Our model does not make any specific adjustments for early voting, but it is presenting a major problem for John McCain in three states in the Mountain West region, where Barack Obama has a huge fraction of his vote locked in.

In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald's turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.

Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however -- say that Philadelphia remains in a collective stupor from the Phillies' win and that there is some sort of Bradley Effect in the Alleghanies -- Obama has a pretty decent firewall in the form of Virginia and Nevada, which had already achieved 53 percent of its 2004 voting totals as of Wednesday, and where Democrats have a 23-point edge in ballots cast so far in Las Vegas's Clark County (and perhaps more impressively, a 15-point advantage in Reno's Washoe County, a traditionally Republican area). The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia, total 270 electoral votes: an ugly, nail-biter of a win for Obama, but still one that would get him to 1600 Pennsylvania all the same.